Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia VII - Page 2

On February 21 2012 00:35 zelblade wrote:
@matt

I have been assuming that you have finished reading since you stated here about 12 hours ago:



And no, I rather you not be modkilled, but I still want you to chime in your thoughts on the lynch candidate. A simple vote without any reasoning makes it extremely hard to hold you accountable if this turns out to be a mislynch. When questioned, you can simply reply "Oh I was just sheeping" This has no accountability and I dont like it.

And I do agree that DYH's flip shows nothing about your aglinment. And another thing, do you actually think that gumshoes points on you are valid?

To summarize this is what he points out
1) You are not mafia if DYH flips red because he pressured (not even with a vote) mannerkiss early on.
2) Im scum because I am suspisious of your posting, attacking the easy targert, and (in his mind) trying to set up a mislynch.
3) If DYH flips green you are red and need to be lynched.

Do you really find this logical? You have already said that DYH's flip says nothing about you, which I believe is true. If so, why do you think that gumshoe's post - largely based off how you are only scum if DYH flips green? I dont see how you see this as "logical".

On February 21 2012 00:41 Mattchew wrote:
As of right now


rgTheSchworz - lets give him a chance to post a little
DoYouHas - should be lynched today

Of these five, 2 or 3 should be the remaining scum team (+/- rg) This is who vig should shoot into in this order
Alderan
TKHawkins
trackd00r
Janaan
zelblade

Remaining Skeptical of
EchelonTee

On February 21 2012 00:57 Mattchew wrote:


lets not lose this.. any thoughts?

On February 21 2012 01:27 Mattchew wrote:


does anyone else find it really fucking weird that we went from 5 on ET to lynching DK in less than an hour?

On February 20 2012 12:10 EchelonTee wrote:


Hmm... I don't know, in L you were more vocal, and your Mason-Mayor plan was pretty flashy. In this game, with less intimidating/less people, it would be a lot easier for you to speak your mind clearly, without being all lurky and posting in a short way.

Are we allowed to discuss Mattchew's previous, on-going game, Werewolves II, since he has already died in that game, or is this against the rules?

On February 21 2012 04:03 Steveling wrote:
##Vote DoYouHas

On February 21 2012 04:04 Janaan wrote:


I just woke up as well, and I need to leave for class soon. I'll post what I can in that time, I may have to cut it off short, though.

I'd really like to see exactly why Mattchew is thinking the way he is. This post gives absolutely no context for why the 5 players he mentioned were chosen for the list, and I really don't like that one bit. Until he gives a reason, it's no more than another fairly useless list of his own personal scum reads.

I do find it interesting that this post isn't directed to the town on who to lynch, but to a vig, when we have no guarantee that a vig is in the game. Is this a scumslip revealing information on the set-up? I'm not sure.

I think that's all that I can really say about that until Mattchew gives us more reasoning for his list.

On February 21 2012 04:21 Alderan wrote:
Sorry for the hiatus, but I'm back, lets rock.

Ok so here's some voting analysis I did about the Day 1 vote.

In the last 30 minutes of voting 7 people Switched to Dimmuklok in this order:

Trapd00r
MidnightGladius
Zelblade
Jaj22
Sloosh
TKHawkins
EchelonTree

This is a kind of switch that I have never seen before, and what it tells me is that mafia were extremely scared to no lynch or we were previously targeting a scum member. The leader prior to the lynch was EchelonTree who was coincidentally the lynch pin in the voting (pun definitely intended).

Situation 1. Fear of no lynch: Mafia feels confident they are not being targeted in the least, and thus starts pushing whomever they feel like they can get votes on to. The only concise and irrefutable case at the time was mine on Dimmuklok so it was a perfect fit.

The voting was in dissaray, so much so that MidnightGladius even makes the comment that the only people that are going to be able to be lynched are him and EchelonTree, so we need to decide something.
Then Trapd00r leads off with the "Oh hey, Alderan's case was pretty good, lets take it into consideration now". 20 minutes later, we have a misslynch.

Situation 2. EchelonTree is scum This situation hinges around the idea that ET was leading the voting prior to the end of the day, and managed a 20 minute shift of votes to, for better or worse, let him live another day. The idea is this then (this one get's a little WIFOMy but bear with me, it's logical), mafia are scrambling, looking for any case they can get a bandwagon on, identify mine, and jump on it using the town's fear of a no lynch as leverage to save their own and lynch a towny.

Those not voting for ET that switched to Dimmuklok-
- Sloosh
- Zelblade
- EchelonTree

Note about Situation 2: Trapd00r seems more town in this situation than in Situation 1 as he had a vote cast on ET and was one of the major ET critics. Can't rule him out completely, but definitely if Situation 2 is correct he is leaning town.

Well which do you think, Alderan? Well, I think situation 1 is the most logical in that everyone pretty much knew at the time of the vote that there going to be a no lynch unless a drastic change was made, so scum supporting ET would not have created a huge movement off of him, because that can only raise suspicions. This is WIFOM of course, which is why I listed both options instead of just Scenario 1.

My next post will be analysis of Trapd00r, which should give us a nudge in the right direction about which of these cases happened.