Newbie Mini Mafia II

On January 03 2012 07:01 Bluelightz wrote:
Sheth is on a roll @@ this is his 3rd game already lol

On January 04 2012 12:34 CatsnHats wrote:
Thanks CookieMaker for the link. And you're right Sheth, if I am leaning toward no lynch that would be a red flag for scum. But wouldn't emphatically being in favor of a lynch be a red flag for scum too since the odds are in favor of townie being accidentally chosen? Oh God this is gonna be so meta.

On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:
I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with.
Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point.
Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other.
If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.)
That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early.
On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die.
(Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.)

Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot....

Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them.

Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1.
A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information.

Also...

What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway?

On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote:
Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment.

Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise.

Player List:
1.CookieMaker

For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me.

2.Liquid`Sheth

Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post.

3.AnxiousHippo

Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral.

5.Tunkeg

Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon.

6.Jitsu

Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads.

7.Xeris

All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral.

8.Gretorp

Same as above, neutral.

9.Gonzaw

Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here.

10.Blurry

Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum.

11.Probulous

Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back.

12.CatsnHats

Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions!

I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up.

On January 05 2012 09:04 Cephiro wrote:


I did not ignore your question. I will however give you an up-dated opinion once Cookie posts the rest of his reads, so please wait until that. (I am waiting for it myself quite eagerly)

On January 05 2012 08:28 Blurry wrote:
About me being inactive: Sorry,I've been out all day since I'm on vacation in Montreal, and while it says I'm from Switzerland I recently moved to USA (EST) and have neglected to change my profile because I'm a little bit homesick+lazy.

Anyways: back to the game,

1: Cookiemaker
AnxiousHippo raised a very good point about Cookiemakers most recent post in his stating that trust has been developing amongst certain townies without providing examples. There was no reason for him to say this other than to try and fluff up his posts. Right now he seems scummy to me.

2: Sheth
Theres one post by him that caught my attention:



This for me could mean one of two things: A. A subtle claim to not being scum based on the logic that Jitsu would know immediately. Or B. I will be able to tell whether or not Jitsu is or is not scum.

Other than this he has been aggressive in terms of trying to get people on the defensive (CatsnHats) which I like as holes will show in peoples stories. Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum but I think time will tell.

3: AnxiousHippo

Cites his inexperience as a way out of having to provide much analysis but also hasn't said anything too scummy. I'm feeling neutral.

4: Cephiro

Provided a lot of good points and has contributed a good deal to the discussion. I don't think think Mafia would be leading the discussion like he has been, especially at this level. Definitely leaning towards town on him.

5: Tunkeg

Tries to get everybody to contribute which I like. Is very clear in his stance which is another good thing. Leaning towards town on him.

6: Jitsu

I'm getting a town vibe from him as well as he asked for someones opinion on himself. This could however be a clever mafia play to try and discover where the holes in his play are. Leaning towards town as he has been pressuring people to contribute.

On January 05 2012 12:25 Probulous wrote:


Hang on, this part is really bad


Think about it carefully, I have pushed my case based on his posts. If I am wrong, what does that tell you? Nothing! I have exactly the same information as anyone else. You don't like my analysis, show me why, but Cephiro's impending lynch says bugger all about my alignment.

On January 05 2012 14:43 Probulous wrote:


Why Sheth Just when you are looking good you write something that comes across really scummy. You are also making the same mistake I originally did, here are the setup options.

Set Up:
1 Mafia Role Blocker, 2 Mafia Goons, 7 Town, 1 Medic, 1 Detective
1 Mafia Role Blocker, 2 Mafia Goons, 9 Town
3 Mafia Goons, 1 Medic, 8 Town
3 Mafia Goons, 1 Detective, 8 Town

They can have a roleblocker with no blue roles. It just means that if someone is roleblocked, there are either no power roles or both DT and Medic. No point speculating now.

I know you are heading to bed but who are your top 3 scum reads, please before tomorrow morning.

Can we got a vote count please?

On January 06 2012 06:15 Jitsu wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

Where did I suggest you role claim? If you view it as such a bad idea, why would you even bring that notion up? Really?
It's rather hard to judge you based on you're posts now when we all have our own reads on players now. Just because you came in and subbed out doesn't mean you're role changed, similar to how if I subbed out now, people should still view my replacement as if it was me. Instead of telling us to disregard everything that was posted in you're capacity, come up with reasons now why we should disregard previous play.



RE: Gonzaw -

It's a scum slip that I said the proposed blue roles, and that DT and Medic need to be smart on who to activate their specials on. I think you're reading way too far into it. I'll say it again, as well as reiterate what has been said many times prior; talking about Blue roles at this point is stupid. We have no reason to even bring it up since this is lynch day, and we don't even know if they are in the game, as you said.

RE: Sheth/Votes -

Before I even decide to switch my vote to Cephiro, I want to see his response to the accusation post by Probu. That being said, I will have to re-read his entire filter again and make a judgement, but a lot of things Cephiro said early was pretty damning.

I have a question Sheth - earlier, you went to sleep teasing us with a post about some posts that were worrying you. The next day, you let us down by not giving us the post you said you were going to because the person under suspicion (Cephiro) came out with a [not very strong] analysis of every player in the game at the time, pretty much saying everyone was town and no one was really scummy.

Than you came out and in the next post in the thread, jump on the Cephiro bandwagon, and start trying to get others to jump on it too. Sheth, I've played two (including this game) games with you, but I do know you like to play logically. Can you post you're original feelings about Cephiro, and than how you're thoughts transformed throughout the game from newb null read to scum read?

What do you have to say to Cephiro if he said you were slightly neutral to scum?

Are you town, Sheth?


@Cephiro -

Along with you're defense, I have something to add as well. There are a lot of times early in the game where you are pushing the idea that you are town. A lot of what you said seems forced to me. Also, there is a point where you are jumping back and forth between a miss-lynch and no-lynch policy. Reading that from a scum point of view, it's almost like you are trying to put the idea back into the idea of the town.

What do you think of Sheth at this time, and why?

On January 07 2012 05:28 Jitsu wrote:


And as for you're opinion, do you think he is mafia or town?

On January 07 2012 05:30 Probulous wrote:


Sheth can you please answer this...

On January 07 2012 06:20 Jitsu wrote:


That doesn't fly with me. Let me explain why.




Nice first post. You jump on CatsnHats for doing scummy things. Perfect, exactly what I would like to see from a first post from someone. You get him, jump right up there and pressure that little weasel...



...wait, what the shit is this? You start pressuring someone, than let off because you think he's new. Why does being new matter? So he can't be responsible for his own actions? Why are you letting him off the hook so easily without even squeezing him a little bit?



This was the post right after you vote Cephiro. After Probu posts his analysis, you step right on that train, right away. The only form of suspicion you threw on Cephiro was more wobbly than a Jenga tower. Than as soon as someone else votes for him, you vote for him. You even say that you saw some things that looked like he was scummy, but you let him off the hook too. Weird.



You are the IdrA of Mafia? Ok.

So why did you stop putting all forms of pressure on Cats so early?


+ Show Spoiler +

Now you're opinion went from Cats being scummy, to him being new?

Than AKCT goes up for lynching, and you jump to that one with new real analysis posting. At that point, it was a bandwagon lynch, but what was YOU'RE Reasoning?




RE: Hippo -
I just realized how you worded this.



You say that you will go over everything tomorrow morning and change a vote if need be. What? If it's not on time, you will just not vote, or leave it on Xeris?



Wow. Stellar. So you jump on this lynch train and don't even bother to explain why. Not only that, but you pretty much indicate that you are going off of what other people have discussed, and not come up with anything concrete on you're own, pretty much re-leaving all pressure from you if it's a miss-lynch.

On January 07 2012 06:20 Jitsu wrote:


That doesn't fly with me. Let me explain why.




Nice first post. You jump on CatsnHats for doing scummy things. Perfect, exactly what I would like to see from a first post from someone. You get him, jump right up there and pressure that little weasel...



...wait, what the shit is this? You start pressuring someone, than let off because you think he's new. Why does being new matter? So he can't be responsible for his own actions? Why are you letting him off the hook so easily without even squeezing him a little bit?



This was the post right after you vote Cephiro. After Probu posts his analysis, you step right on that train, right away. The only form of suspicion you threw on Cephiro was more wobbly than a Jenga tower. Than as soon as someone else votes for him, you vote for him. You even say that you saw some things that looked like he was scummy, but you let him off the hook too. Weird.



You are the IdrA of Mafia? Ok.

So why did you stop putting all forms of pressure on Cats so early?


+ Show Spoiler +

Now you're opinion went from Cats being scummy, to him being new?

Than AKCT goes up for lynching, and you jump to that one with new real analysis posting. At that point, it was a bandwagon lynch, but what was YOU'RE Reasoning?

On January 07 2012 09:22 Probulous wrote:


You seem pretty certain on surviving the night. You know something we don't?

On January 07 2012 09:36 Jitsu wrote:



I'm not back and forth'ing with Tunk. XD


RE: Sheth -

What kind of question is that? I post an analysis, than I vote for him, and than you ask me if I think he should be lynched?





Does that look like a newbie post to you?

If I was being accused of Mafia, I would prove my innocence by finding scum. Not by trying the town to lynch myself.

In other words, having the town waste another day to lynch me if I was town is anti-town in and of itself. I think he's banking on the fact that he's trying to pull at our oh-so-tender heartstrings.

Thoughts?

On January 07 2012 23:27 Probulous wrote:


First things first, I am sorry guys I failed you yesterday. I put together my cases and was part of the lynching of the innocent CookierMaker who was also proficient in the art of tea-making. I was wrong.

Ok, I'm back and have time to talk. Why are you discrediting yourself here? We know you were wrong, we were wrong too.

Worse still I had a null read on Sheth. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice ... Not likely

Your likely to not get fooled twice? You've been using good logic and sounding townie, but why do you say this?

Here is Sheth's filter. I will be posting most quotes old school otherwise this will be too long. So here we go.

My initial suspicion of Sheth was raised when he let Cats off the hook for a shitty reason linky. He is the first to identify a particular person for scummy play but immediately backs off? If you thought Cats was posted badly then puts the pressure on him to stop. By undermining his own stance with " I'm picking on you for no real reason" Sheth provides an escape for Cats. My belief it was in the hope that no-one really noticed and would drop the subject.

I picked on Cats to get a read on him. I let off him for a little while true. However I still think its obvious Cats is playing this like a newb. Not nessecarily a mafia or a town newb, but I don't get why waiting a little bit on him and going on my more solid read of Cephiro was bad. Its what you did too.

This is my response to Cats and you can the difference in tone. I want him to actually change and I stand by my position.

You keep him in your scum list, but you don't keep pressuring him. You just act meaner to a guy who is acting newb. This is the sort of non-stop pressure that almost caused him to try and "lynch" himself. I still don't think Cats is mafia based on his posts and what not. However I obviously want to keep pressure on him. Thats what I've been saying this whole time, but now I'm stuck responding to these posts.

Unfortunately no-else noted this at this point in time. Luckily for town Sheth had promised a revelation in the morning. Well this is the revelation (Linky for context). Here is the meat of it



Fluff

Its fluff, but I'm trying to encourage Gretorp to post some. Pretty sure you've asked him to post more as well?



Here we have something that looks fine at first glance but upon rereading makes no sense. As town, you want people to participate, you want information, any information. Pressure is what produces responses and responses produce things to find scum with. If you aren't pressuring everyone who are you pressuring and how can you be sure they are mafia? Choosing one person to focus on means you give mafia (at this stage) and 10/12 chance of not-being lynched. Who chooses who is the person to face the pressure anyway? No this gives mafia too much space to hide and is a really scummy post.

Joke? You did the SAME THING YOU JUST ACCUSED ME OFF! You started putting pressure on Cephiro and just kept it on him. Thats exactly what my post there was trying to get us to do. Besides my post is exactly what your doing now on me as well. Forcing EVERYONE in this thread to comment on me. Your logic here is just fluff, I wasn't saying to "just pick one person to lynch", but to pick one person to pressure. Your either intentionally reading this wrong or just trying to add something to your case that has no point being here.

This is clearly mafia motivated. You assume we won't have any reads on day 1, implying we shouldn't bother. How can anyone prove they are not mafia on day 1? By being proactive and providing new information.Focusing on one person gives mafia an easy excuse to sheep.

Thanks for pointing out the same reason we don't do RNG. I wasn't implying we just pick on one person the whole day. Just that we go after one person with some REAL pressure. We started day 1 putting too little pressure on people, this was my way of saying people like Cats / Xeris won't be able to get away with more bad posts. As this is a newbie mafia game I think going after anyone who makes an small mistake at the first is stupid. Thats how we end up lynching all of the worst players first, while the mafia kills the best and we are left with the middle. I'm going off topic here..



Firstly note the use of the word "leaning". He states before his case that it is weak and only meant as faint pressure. This undermines his point before he even starts. Sheth points out an obviously bad post (one which i had been arguing with Ceph about all day 1). Ceph had already acknowledged the stats meant nothing so there isn't any point in regurgitating the argument now. But even if Sheth thought it was scummy, he doesn't say so. No it's weird. Casting doubt without actually calling him out.

Leaning, pressure same thing? You can lean on someone until they die here sir. It shouldn't undermine my point at all, as I said I was "planning on it" and I actually never did. My post defending Ceph here wasn't the best. I can admit that as I let him off the hook there. However I was planning on going over his posts in depth and going back on him, I just said I'd give what I had in the morning, and things had changed in the morning so I posted just a basic well I don't know, this post looks good. Which, without looking too indepth into it, it did look good. I call him out later and add points and help your case on him. I stand by my case that Cephiro still looks scummy, while you've now called him almost confirmed town in one of your recent posts.




Apparently this means that Sheth doesn't need to "lean" on Cephiro anymore. That terrible analysis which has some negatives (we never hear what they are) is enough for Sheth to back off. Essentially you undermine your case which is a repeat of our discussions from day 1 and then dismiss it because he posted his analysis which you say has negatives but won't tell us what they are.

Your point here is wrong on the timeline. I posted this before you had posted anything on him, and I explain it above. Quit trying to say I do this twice, its just wrong.

Talk about wishy-washy. Again, this is casting suspicion without making it clear. A mafia would not want to call out someone who could defend themselves well. Much better to push a weak case and hope it catches fire.

Given my DAy 1 read it is a tad ironic that Cephiro was the first to pick this up (linky) but he deserves credit for it. Tunk (bless his townie soul) picked up Sheth's terrible reasoning for focusing on a single player (linky). Jitsu pointed out that Sheth was hyping his possible analysis but then failed to deliver (linky). So far that is three people (based on my current reads) that are either green or looking greeny, that have noted Sheth's scummy play.

At this stage the only people he has targeted have been Cats and Cephiro both of which he has let off the hook.

He was not suspicious of Cephiro at this point

He did not post anything after backing down on his "case" against Cephiro and yet as soon as he comes back to thread and has read my analysis this is his post in full



Note how he twists Cephiro's words here. He says he changed his opinion partly due to other people's good reasoning. Sheth turns that into following people blindly. There is nothing wrong with following good reasoning. You should, that is logical, much better than following bad reasoning. But Sheth makes it look like Ceph is just sheeping.

Don't you think he just followed the train on CookieMaker? Clearly our reasoning on him WASNT good reasoning. Maybe your not perfect with your reasoning? You also sheeped onto CM, and I did too. I'm clearly not saying "don't listen to good reasoning". And Ceph was sheeping? Your just adding more things onto your posts so its a HUGE wall of text and people will just assume that every point is good, and maybe not read it thorougly.



Here we have his subtle linkage on Cephiro's possible flip and my alignment. Note the word use " We can completely tell about Probulous being town or not". By Sheth's thinking if Ceph was town I had to be mafia. This would be really beneficial to Sheth because he knows Ceph is town, which means he can hopefully get me lynched when Ceph flips green. Hell no you can't. Unfortunately this distracted me and I have "words" with Sheth. Note how he immediately assumes I might die night one. Well I didn't, Tunk did. One of the few that called him out on his back-pedalling.

This is stupid. I geuss not using commas should get me killed. "We can completely tell about Probulous being town, or not (or nothing at all)". I didn't mean we can tell if hes town or mafia. Just that there is no reason mafia would so heavily start a train onone of their own on the first night. YOU even agree with me later on after we "have words".

But then the best bit, Cephiro goes from being Sheth's second read to nothing to highest scum read based on MY analysis. Note he has added nothing here except a weird twisting of Ceph's words to make a point that doesn't make sense. To me this reads like someone desperate to look like they had Ceph as their target all along. Sheth never says that his reasoning is based on my case, in fact he never mentions what his reasoning is.

This is the best bit? The fact that I havn't flip flopped off of him. First you call me out for not pressrue Cats /Cephiro enough and now your saying I'm doing it too much. And also I said your reasoning helped out my own I'm pretty sure. And I'm also sure I posted what my reasoning on Cephiro was. You're simply not reading and adding more to this huge text bomb of your logic.

This is my post on Cephiro in its entirety, you seemingly didn't even look at this one.




At this point Sheth and I wonder off into diversion land about whether Ceph's flip says anything about my alignment. There isn't much there except in this post Sheth makes a big boo-boo.



Read that first sentence again. Way to pump the team Mr Sheth. At this point, we may be against the odds but not heavily so. Unless of course you are Mafia in which case you know we won't be lynching red. He follows this gem with Xeris being REALLY pro-town.

I'm posting a fact. We didn't lynch mafia first turn. Its more harmful to town if we all assume we'll lynch mafia round one and then we don't and everyone is discouraged. Also this post was made out of this timeline as well. It was one of my earlier posts. I've also recently posted what I feel about Xeris, and how he'll probably still be modkilled/replaced so I don't know why you'd quote an old post thats sense changed.

Xeris had been seriously absent and then appeared with random comments about RNG and basically trashed all analysis done to date. He had (has) done nothing for this town and hasn't even hinted at being suspicious of someone. There is nothing pro-town about his play but Sheth is quick to defend him. OK, you're mates I get it, but why Xeris over Gretorp. At least Gretorp pointed out Cephiro waffling, that was a damn site more than xeris but no Xeris is REALLY pro-town. I don't like lynching lurkers but when Sheth flips red I bet Xeris will too.

This is horrible logic. Your logic has just been way off recently. Xeris' post just seemed townie at the time. Gretorps did as well, and I've explained about Xeris too much. And if you'd known Xeris in RL you'd understand. I really wish Gretorp would come on and explain this sometime, but sense hes apparently always afk your just bringing up a point I can't verify. I don't like how your taking something that I can bring to town (my knowledge of both of them in Real life) and trying to point it out as invalid. You think my one post of defending Xeris makes him mafia if I am? You've just created a lot of text here again, that doesn't say anything.

The next post of consequence from Sheth is this beauty. Where he claims allegiance to Xeris because he played real life games with him.

quote]Well, the Xeris thing is based completely on the fact that I know him really well IRL and we've played mafia a bunch before. He is really bad mafia. Like he'd be lurking and mod killed if he was mafia.

And his posts about why he doesn't want to lynch someone this day are what I initially thought too when I went from IRL games to forum posts. So just the fact that he is usually terrible as mafia and whenever hes used that excuse in the past hes always been town + hes playing just how I imagine a townie Xeris playing gives me a good read. Hes one of the only two I know IRL, so its easier for me to get a read on him then the rest of you.

2) If you were a Doc (could save someone from a nightkill), who would you save and why? I would save one of Probulous, Myself, Gonzaw and Tunkeg.

On January 07 2012 23:27 Probulous wrote:


First things first, I am sorry guys I failed you yesterday. I put together my cases and was part of the lynching of the innocent CookierMaker who was also proficient in the art of tea-making. I was wrong.

Ok, I'm back and have time to talk. Why are you discrediting yourself here? We know you were wrong, we were wrong too.

Worse still I had a null read on Sheth. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice ... Not likely

Your likely to not get fooled twice? You've been using good logic and sounding townie, but why do you say this?

Here is Sheth's filter. I will be posting most quotes old school otherwise this will be too long. So here we go.

My initial suspicion of Sheth was raised when he let Cats off the hook for a shitty reason linky. He is the first to identify a particular person for scummy play but immediately backs off? If you thought Cats was posted badly then puts the pressure on him to stop. By undermining his own stance with " I'm picking on you for no real reason" Sheth provides an escape for Cats. My belief it was in the hope that no-one really noticed and would drop the subject.

I picked on Cats to get a read on him. I let off him for a little while true. However I still think its obvious Cats is playing this like a newb. Not nessecarily a mafia or a town newb, but I don't get why waiting a little bit on him and going on my more solid read of Cephiro was bad. Its what you did too.

This is my response to Cats and you can the difference in tone. I want him to actually change and I stand by my position.

You keep him in your scum list, but you don't keep pressuring him. You just act meaner to a guy who is acting newb. This is the sort of non-stop pressure that almost caused him to try and "lynch" himself. I still don't think Cats is mafia based on his posts and what not. However I obviously want to keep pressure on him. Thats what I've been saying this whole time, but now I'm stuck responding to these posts.

Unfortunately no-else noted this at this point in time. Luckily for town Sheth had promised a revelation in the morning. Well this is the revelation (Linky for context). Here is the meat of it



Fluff

Its fluff, but I'm trying to encourage Gretorp to post some. Pretty sure you've asked him to post more as well?



Here we have something that looks fine at first glance but upon rereading makes no sense. As town, you want people to participate, you want information, any information. Pressure is what produces responses and responses produce things to find scum with. If you aren't pressuring everyone who are you pressuring and how can you be sure they are mafia? Choosing one person to focus on means you give mafia (at this stage) and 10/12 chance of not-being lynched. Who chooses who is the person to face the pressure anyway? No this gives mafia too much space to hide and is a really scummy post.

Joke? You did the SAME THING YOU JUST ACCUSED ME OF! You started putting pressure on Cephiro and just kept it on him. Thats exactly what my post there was trying to get us to do. Besides my post is exactly what your doing now on me as well. Forcing EVERYONE in this thread to comment on me. Your logic here is just fluff, I wasn't saying to "just pick one person to lynch", but to pick one person to pressure. Your either intentionally reading this wrong or just trying to add something to your case that has no point being here.

This is clearly mafia motivated. You assume we won't have any reads on day 1, implying we shouldn't bother. How can anyone prove they are not mafia on day 1? By being proactive and providing new information.Focusing on one person gives mafia an easy excuse to sheep.

Thanks for pointing out the same reason we don't do RNG. I wasn't implying we just pick on one person the whole day. Just that we go after one person with some REAL pressure. We started day 1 putting too little pressure on people, this was my way of saying people like Cats / Xeris won't be able to get away with more bad posts. As this is a newbie mafia game I think going after anyone who makes an small mistake at the first is stupid. Thats how we end up lynching all of the worst players first, while the mafia kills the best and we are left with the middle. I'm going off topic here..



Firstly note the use of the word "leaning". He states before his case that it is weak and only meant as faint pressure. This undermines his point before he even starts. Sheth points out an obviously bad post (one which i had been arguing with Ceph about all day 1). Ceph had already acknowledged the stats meant nothing so there isn't any point in regurgitating the argument now. But even if Sheth thought it was scummy, he doesn't say so. No it's weird. Casting doubt without actually calling him out.

Leaning, pressure same thing? You can lean on someone until they die here sir. It shouldn't undermine my point at all, as I said I was "planning on it" and I actually never did. My post defending Ceph here wasn't the best. I can admit that as I let him off the hook there. However I was planning on going over his posts in depth and going back on him, I just said I'd give what I had in the morning, and things had changed in the morning so I posted just a basic well I don't know, this post looks good. Which, without looking too indepth into it, it did look good. I call him out later and add points and help your case on him. I stand by my case that Cephiro still looks scummy, while you've now called him almost confirmed town in one of your recent posts.




Apparently this means that Sheth doesn't need to "lean" on Cephiro anymore. That terrible analysis which has some negatives (we never hear what they are) is enough for Sheth to back off. Essentially you undermine your case which is a repeat of our discussions from day 1 and then dismiss it because he posted his analysis which you say has negatives but won't tell us what they are.

Your point here is wrong on the timeline. I posted this before you had posted anything on him, and I explain it above. Quit trying to say I do this twice, its just wrong.

Talk about wishy-washy. Again, this is casting suspicion without making it clear. A mafia would not want to call out someone who could defend themselves well. Much better to push a weak case and hope it catches fire.

Given my DAy 1 read it is a tad ironic that Cephiro was the first to pick this up (linky) but he deserves credit for it. Tunk (bless his townie soul) picked up Sheth's terrible reasoning for focusing on a single player (linky). Jitsu pointed out that Sheth was hyping his possible analysis but then failed to deliver (linky). So far that is three people (based on my current reads) that are either green or looking greeny, that have noted Sheth's scummy play.

At this stage the only people he has targeted have been Cats and Cephiro both of which he has let off the hook.

He was not suspicious of Cephiro at this point

He did not post anything after backing down on his "case" against Cephiro and yet as soon as he comes back to thread and has read my analysis this is his post in full



Note how he twists Cephiro's words here. He says he changed his opinion partly due to other people's good reasoning. Sheth turns that into following people blindly. There is nothing wrong with following good reasoning. You should, that is logical, much better than following bad reasoning. But Sheth makes it look like Ceph is just sheeping.

Don't you think he just followed the train on CookieMaker? Clearly our reasoning on him WASNT good reasoning. Maybe your not perfect with your reasoning? You also sheeped onto CM, and I did too. I'm clearly not saying "don't listen to good reasoning". And Ceph was sheeping? Your just adding more things onto your posts so its a HUGE wall of text and people will just assume that every point is good, and maybe not read it thorougly.



Here we have his subtle linkage on Cephiro's possible flip and my alignment. Note the word use " We can completely tell about Probulous being town or not". By Sheth's thinking if Ceph was town I had to be mafia. This would be really beneficial to Sheth because he knows Ceph is town, which means he can hopefully get me lynched when Ceph flips green. Hell no you can't. Unfortunately this distracted me and I have "words" with Sheth. Note how he immediately assumes I might die night one. Well I didn't, Tunk did. One of the few that called him out on his back-pedalling.

This is stupid. I geuss not using commas should get me killed. "We can completely tell about Probulous being town, or not (or nothing at all)". I didn't mean we can tell if hes town or mafia. Just that there is no reason mafia would so heavily start a train onone of their own on the first night. YOU even agree with me later on after we "have words".

But then the best bit, Cephiro goes from being Sheth's second read to nothing to highest scum read based on MY analysis. Note he has added nothing here except a weird twisting of Ceph's words to make a point that doesn't make sense. To me this reads like someone desperate to look like they had Ceph as their target all along. Sheth never says that his reasoning is based on my case, in fact he never mentions what his reasoning is.

This is the best bit? The fact that I havn't flip flopped off of him. First you call me out for not pressrue Cats /Cephiro enough and now your saying I'm doing it too much. And also I said your reasoning helped out my own I'm pretty sure. And I'm also sure I posted what my reasoning on Cephiro was. You're simply not reading and adding more to this huge text bomb of your logic.

This is my post on Cephiro in its entirety, you seemingly didn't even look at this one.




At this point Sheth and I wonder off into diversion land about whether Ceph's flip says anything about my alignment. There isn't much there except in this post Sheth makes a big boo-boo.



Read that first sentence again. Way to pump the team Mr Sheth. At this point, we may be against the odds but not heavily so. Unless of course you are Mafia in which case you know we won't be lynching red. He follows this gem with Xeris being REALLY pro-town.

I'm posting a fact. We didn't lynch mafia first turn. Its more harmful to town if we all assume we'll lynch mafia round one and then we don't and everyone is discouraged. Also this post was made out of this timeline as well. It was one of my earlier posts. I've also recently posted what I feel about Xeris, and how he'll probably still be modkilled/replaced so I don't know why you'd quote an old post thats sense changed.

Xeris had been seriously absent and then appeared with random comments about RNG and basically trashed all analysis done to date. He had (has) done nothing for this town and hasn't even hinted at being suspicious of someone. There is nothing pro-town about his play but Sheth is quick to defend him. OK, you're mates I get it, but why Xeris over Gretorp. At least Gretorp pointed out Cephiro waffling, that was a damn site more than xeris but no Xeris is REALLY pro-town. I don't like lynching lurkers but when Sheth flips red I bet Xeris will too.

This is horrible logic. Your logic has just been way off recently. Xeris' post just seemed townie at the time. Gretorps did as well, and I've explained about Xeris too much. And if you'd known Xeris in RL you'd understand. I really wish Gretorp would come on and explain this sometime, but sense hes apparently always afk your just bringing up a point I can't verify. I don't like how your taking something that I can bring to town (my knowledge of both of them in Real life) and trying to point it out as invalid. You think my one post of defending Xeris makes him mafia if I am? You've just created a lot of text here again, that doesn't say anything.

The next post of consequence from Sheth is this beauty. Where he claims allegiance to Xeris because he played real life games with him.

quote]Well, the Xeris thing is based completely on the fact that I know him really well IRL and we've played mafia a bunch before. He is really bad mafia. Like he'd be lurking and mod killed if he was mafia.

And his posts about why he doesn't want to lynch someone this day are what I initially thought too when I went from IRL games to forum posts. So just the fact that he is usually terrible as mafia and whenever hes used that excuse in the past hes always been town + hes playing just how I imagine a townie Xeris playing gives me a good read. Hes one of the only two I know IRL, so its easier for me to get a read on him then the rest of you.

2) If you were a Doc (could save someone from a nightkill), who would you save and why? I would save one of Probulous, Myself, Gonzaw and Tunkeg.

On January 07 2012 06:00 Probulous wrote:
Alright, my Sheth read.

Points in his favour
He is active and was the first to call out both Cats and Cephiro. He is happy to respond and get engaged in large discussions. He voted early for AKCT who was already on his list of scum reads.

On January 08 2012 13:01 Probulous wrote:


Cats, you still aren't standing up for yourself. You are right to point out that everyone seems to have me pegged as town without thought. Why do you have to say I am not a day2 lynch target by any means and that this is not a FOS. Stop undermining yourself. Just ask the question and provide your own analysis.

On January 08 2012 13:46 Probulous wrote:


It is not hypocrisy, I want him to take a stand so we can evaluate his decisions. I didn't tell him I had no reason for saying what I am doing. You did. He clearly thinks he should look into my play, which is something I have been telling people to do. I am not letting him out anything, I am forcing him to make himself heard. He wanted to know how to get some credibility, well here it is. Take a stand, I didn't say that I don't think he is scummy, or anything which undermines my earlier read. I am getting him to make it clear where he stands so others can see what I see.

There is nothing hypocritical about my post, I am telling him the same thing I have said since the start. If you want to prove you're town, take a stand, provide evidence and push it hard.

You did not do that, you told him grow a spine and then in the very next post said you had no reason to target him. That is undermining your position. That is letting someone go.

On January 06 2012 08:22 Cephiro wrote:
Placeholder vote since I am quite sure I will not have enough time to convince the town on lynching someone else, sorry AKCT. :/

If there are some specific points anyone of you want me to answer, please point them out now.

##Vote A Killer Cuppa Tea

On January 09 2012 05:33 CatsnHats wrote:
@Sheth You aren't my best read on scum, I said the town had the best case against you because Prob had just made his long analysis post. Then you defended yourself, which I was waiting on, and because of it I'm not comfortable voting for you. I'm still convinced than when Xeris and Gretorp are killed one of them will turn red, and Hippo and Blurry have always been more questionable than you in my eyes. Honestly I would vote for myself with Jitsu and you if it meant keeping you alive, because you are obviously much better at making reads and are a bigger asset to the town than I am.

On January 09 2012 07:33 Probulous wrote:
I am not scared of Cats if he is mafia. He is so scummy now that he little to no influence on the town. He is not a threat (sorry Cats but that is plainly true). Sheth, clearly has influence.

He has played this game very well but not well enough. I would implore you that if you let him live tonight, he can take what we have written and change his game to suit. Cats play does not look like someone who has a team behind them. It is wishy-wasy and bandwagonny as anything, but it isn't dangerous. Hell he doesn't even know who he is voting for. No Cats, is not a problem.

If he is mafia, he is a mafia with no town cred. In all likelihood he will get lynched either today or tomorrow but he will never be listened to. He has had too many chances. Sheth however is dangerous. He has shown himself capable enough to sow doubt, let him live and he will do more.

Sheth is trying to push the lynch onto someone easy, someone who has not played this game well. I am willing to put my credibility on the line that Sheth is scum. Last lynch, I capitulated instead of forcing my case. I was certain that Cookie was scum but even more so of Cephiro. Then when Ceph showed how he can actually play I realised my mistake, I accepted Cookie's lynch because he was already on my list, but unfortunately it allowed others to sheep. There was no other lynch being pushed (a sure sign of a miss-lynch coming).

Well today we don't have that problem, everyone has a simple choice. Who is the better lynch, Sheth or Cats?

Clearly Sheth is more dangerous, and Cats play looks similar to Cookie's, except that he has tried to defend himself (terribly but the effort is there). If you accept that a mafia Sheth is more dangerous than a mafia Cats, the question is quite simple, is Sheth scum?

So far we have the following votes:

Sheth (4) (Probulous, Gonzaw, Blurry the blatant sheep, Cephiro)

Cats (2) (Jitsu, Sheth)

We are waiting the following to vote
Cats
AnxiousHippo
Xeris
Gretorp

Come on guys, don't do this last minute. Take a stand and lynch Sheth

On January 09 2012 08:02 Probulous wrote:


Just wanted to point out that Cephiro is by no means a confirmed townie. His play on Day 1 was terrible and deserved the case presented, however his play since has been incisive and focused. He was the first the really go after Sheth, which would be one hell of a bus if both were mafia. I know its WIFOM but I highly doubt both are mafia, it just doesn't fit the arguments presented. So it comes down to deciding between them. Sheth's play has been consistent throughout this game whilst Cephiro's improved dramatically after my case. Thus I think Cephiro is more likely to be town than mafia.

This does not mean that he is confirmed town, I wasn't even implying that. I simply said he looks more townie after his response to my case. The only confirmed town I have right now is Jistu, simply because of his play. Gonz I am almost certain of and Cephiro is looking good.

The rest of you, pick up your game.

Voting for Sheth would be one way to do just that.

On January 09 2012 08:41 Probulous wrote:


Are you seriously suggesting that you are not more dangerous than Cats? Cats has zero town cred, you had plenty and the fact that Jitsu still hasn't moved his vote suggest the same. You have pushed arguments and swayed town. It was you who convinced me to change my vote after which remarkably, AKCT was lynched within half an hour. I am taking responsibility for my vote, I have explained it. In this particular instance I look as guilty as you, but I had my reasons. Like I said Ceph's respons confused the hell out of me, but you, your only reason for not lynching Ceph was to avoid a no-lynch. You still thought (and do) think he is scum but you didn't even try and convince others. You didn't even try and avoid AKCT lynch, why? Why, if Cephiro is your number one scum read do you just give up when two people vote in another direction?

I had a reason to change, I started to think Cephiro was not mafia. You still had him as your number one mafia pick and yet you suggested we switch. Given how many votes rolled in after mine, it would have been possible to lynch Ceph. But no, it was easier to lynch AKCT and then go into day 2 hoping Ceph was still looking scummy. That way you could convince us to lynch him Day 2. This had the added benefit that you didn't have to post your "nail him to the wall" read until much later.

Sorry Sheth but you had no real reason to give up your case on Ceph so easily. That was damning in my eyes.



You do realise the only way that Ceph could be bussing you is if your both mafia?