Election Mafia
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jaj22
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jaj22
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On December 15 2011 18:20 Cwave wrote: As for the second candidate, i say Giygas. Giygas posts sensible and is active, has a brain and will use the power to good use instead of squander it. | ||
jaj22
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+ Show Spoiler + Sole attempt at analysis is on night kills. Complains about other people's analysis being useless: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12775265 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12789217 Comprissent is also adamant about not lynching lurkers: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12714663 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12728076 Which is convenient given his minimal contribution. Unnecessary "I'm town, really" comment on the end there too. For what it's worth, Hassybaby/Bluelightz lurked through the last newbie mini and turned out to be scum. Likes talking about elections, power roles and policy. Defends himself but apparently doesn't like scumhunting. Showed interest in looking into MarserBlood and Nisani/VE's filters three days ago, played LoL instead. Claimed to have his last exam today, so hopefully he'll step up and post some analysis before the lynch. Scum read until then. Cwave: Filter is a bit lightweight, but he's happy to give reads and stick with them. Town read for now. nyczbrandon: On December 16 2011 11:48 nyczbrandon wrote: Doing bare minimum makes me seem like scum? Yes, yes it does. Taking four days to eventually post the first part of an analysis you promised is... well, I'm not even sure how you got away with it. Post more. evantrees: Posts a lot about elections, next to nothing about scum. How did we get to day 3 with people still doing this? Getting a read out of this filter is hopeless. cascades: Not many posts, but relatively juicy ones. This post interested me: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12795425 Just reads as really angry to me. Sure, if you have a strong distaste for veterans playing lazy/arrogant (which would be consistent with the rest of his filter), you'd be facepalming pretty hard at the ProfBA fold, but a mafia lynch is a mafia lynch. Maybe I just can't comprehend the true depths of veteran-hate. | ||
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On December 21 2011 01:26 GreYMisT wrote: Like I said if you insist I will claim in full, but please understand that what I am obscuring is only good for town, and that it hampers my ability to act in an elected position. Notice I did not run in any election as I normally do. Is that still an issue for the current election? Should we be voting for you or not? | ||
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During night 1, you claim that Curu is the scummiest of the veterans/hydras and explain the logic behind lynching him. Then on day 2, you defend him strongly on the basis that lynching him will harm town atmosphere, while still claiming that he's almost certainly scum. The evidence of this game and the one you linked suggests that he harms town atmosphere a lot more when alive than dead. Then on night 2, you're back to explaining exactly why it was a logical lynch. Really? | ||
jaj22
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@Deus: I don't think I'll ever be happy with your explanation but your list looks solid so let's roll with it for the moment. Electing you as police chief rather than prankster is zero-risk anyway. Hoping that the secretary of defence power really is a nuke. | ||
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On December 21 2011 07:06 MrZentor wrote: Guys, I really don't understand why we're electing Deus as watcher. We don't know he's town, and our entire plan rests on the fact that the watcher is town. If the Watcher isn't town, we get several townies, including Radfield, killed, and allow mafia to have a good chance of winning. Nah, that'd make no sense given that most people have a town read on him. What mafia really need is one player to survive through several days. Killing Radfield a night early by throwing away a well-positioned player and crippling their KP doesn't sound smart to me. | ||
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On December 21 2011 21:10 cascades wrote: @Deus, of all people you should understand the logic of watching Radfield and you know what would happen if Radfield dies. If he's scum, he names a mafia and rides the very slow bus to victory. If he's town and wasn't watching, he names you and hopes. If he's as confident in his scumread as he looks, it's probably a more pro-town option than casting suspicion on himself. Anyway, I should do something more useful than WIFOMing stuff that probably won't even happen. Got a lot to re-read now that Comprissent and nyczbrandon flipped town, and I need to check out Sheth and Refallen's filters. | ||
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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12843557 | ||
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Deus is just my favourite conspiracy theory. | ||
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On December 22 2011 20:26 risk.nuke wrote: What do you people read in from the day three vote? I had an uncounted vote on Comprissent btw. I don't think there was a whole lot to choose between the candidates on merit so there's a limited amount of information from the vote: 1. If Cwave was scum and Cascades is scum, Cwave should have switched his vote to Comprissent as it was close. On the other hand, Cwave doesn't post anywhere near the end of the day, so he may have missed the swing. 2. Sheth voting for nycz makes Cascades look a bit cleaner, but Sheth had a regular presence near the deadline so he may have just been hoping not to need a late switch, or expecting Cascades to switch to save himself. 3. Zentor gets a small red mark for switching late between two players that flipped town. However, this secret election seems to account for the last scum power, which puts Zentor absolutely in the clear. 4. Zeks also switched from nycz to Comprissent. I suppose he could have been defending Cascades just to keep 2 KP overnight before his awesome vig-shot bus, but in our current situation that's not worth worrying about for a while, and it's meaningless unless Cascades flips red. I haven't checked up on who failed to give reasoning for their vote yet. | ||
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5. Refallen with a suspiciously late/low-reasoning vote on Comprissent. | ||
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Looks like even Radfield is taking his own towncred for granted today, although it wouldn't surprise me if his botched medic claim is fictional. Zentor seems like a good choice for election now that he's 100% confirmed, except that he's dangerously close to a modkill, so unless he shows up soon I don't see better candidates than Radfield/Zeks. I have a pretty strong town read on risk.nuke but I suspect too many people disagree. | ||
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On December 23 2011 00:02 zeks wrote: You are still not sure about me when I shot Sheth? Seriously. If I were scum that would be the stupidest fucking move in the world. I would've just decreased kp from 2 to 1. Unless scum were pretty sure that one of them was going to get lynched the next day. In fact the scum are in such a terrible situation they might as well concede this game right now. Unless they have a near-confirmed townie on their side. Which doesn't help your case. It's a very long shot though. Fundamentally you look town, you smell town, your vig shot made perfect sense as town given that you'd been on Sheth's case all game, and Sheth flipped mafia roleblocker. Until we're down to four players with equivalent credentials, it makes no sense to worry about you. | ||
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"Additionally, the police chief role's watcher ability applies to all day and night actions during the cycle." http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12828580 Not sure how that works in different overlap cases though, given that the roleblock could have started before the watcher ability kicked in. If no-one claims roleblock then I guess we can greentext the question. | ||
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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12828615 So Radfield wasn't roleblocked during night 3, assuming that Deus is telling the truth (and I can't see why he wouldn't). | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + Radfield+++- Greymist++++++ Arctocod----- prplhz----- Deus+++++++--- risk---+--+ ProfBA--++----V DropBear- xsksc-- zentor----- zeks--------++- Nisani/VE+-- Refallen---- Eiii-- Spaackle+--V Cascades--------- Comprissent---- Evantrees---- Giygas------- Marserblood/jaj22------ TNTP+- nyczbrandon+---V Cwave-+ Jitsu-- A lot of the minus-heavy lines aren't as similar as they look here, so they're pretty misleading. He presses prplhz, Zeks, Zentor and Giygas in a relatively concentrated manner, while the others are mostly "clean up these lurkers" spamreads and shouldn't be treated equivalently. Other general patterns: 1. If he presses anyone hard, they flip town. 2. He's not afraid to criticise scumbuddies a bit. 3. If veterans say stuff that he likes, he praises them. TNTP and Cwave get off very lightly, while Jitsu is a very late addition to his day/night 3 spamreads. He buddies up consistently with Deus until night 3. There's likely to have been some distancing in his day/night 3 posting, but it's so scattershot that it doesn't narrow anything down. Other than that I'm not seeing much of use here. | ||
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On December 23 2011 13:50 TotallyNotTwoPeople wrote: Why Refallen is likely town: Check, check, and check. No logic though. Might just be picking up some towncred by naming some probable night 1/2 targets. Greymist is playing so blue that he gets jumped on during day 3. Also Radfield's only "confirmed" by meta and WIFOM'd roleblocks, right? I'm kinda trusting the vets on that. On December 23 2011 13:50 TotallyNotTwoPeople wrote: I am sure scum were aware that this game was not extended majority. So unless he was feigning ignorance to try to get away with his bandwagoning (which I doubt), a point for him being town. As someone mentioned earlier (or was that another game?), most scum teams talk very little apart from nightkills. Otherwise, if feigning ignorance gives you towncred, scum may have told him to do just that. On December 23 2011 13:50 TotallyNotTwoPeople wrote: Calls out the exact scum plan...not something I'd think scum would do. I'm sure everyone in the thread was thinking exactly the same thing, but it'd take balls for scum to post it, and I'd mark Refallen as on the timid side. On December 23 2011 13:50 TotallyNotTwoPeople wrote: Unless Greymist or Radfield are somehow scum, even if Refallen is scum 4 scum had to be on Radfield. Giving away where his whole team was hiding when he could easily increase suspicion on the others? I highly doubt that. Not sure about "giving away", given that no-one's likely to take much notice, but I agree that this doesn't look like a scum post. On December 23 2011 13:50 TotallyNotTwoPeople wrote: Was clearly not fond of Sheth: Well, he backed away from pressing him twice, although you could put that down to his natural lack of aggression. His last post on Sheth was actually a defence (spoilered due to length): + Show Spoiler + On December 21 2011 11:25 Refallen wrote: Even though some of his posts has been accusing Palmar/Radfield of being scum and defending them, I think if you read the entirety of his filter, there seems to be a common theme in the sense that this is a guy who likes to form his own opinion instead of sheeping the other vets, and is wary of trusting the vets too much. Quotes like dosen't seem like he's showing any fear, which I think is protown. Kind of like Sheth, he's been pretty active about asking people to post cases and will follow his own lynch targets instead of sheeping people. That's the feeling I got from him. (Also since we're both from Singapore it's highly likely that he's asleep and won't be able to defend himself and for the past 8 hours, since it's early morning here.) This is during his rather weird defence of Cascades. Overall though, I think Sheth flipping red gives him a lot of towncred, so I'm looking for better lynches. | ||
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On December 23 2011 22:21 Cwave wrote: In a hour i'm gonna be heading to the airport to board my flight and i won't be back online till after the day ends. To repeat, im a vanilla townie and today i election voted on Radfield and lynch voted on cascades. A blind vote in secret ballot? Really? Are you feeling suicidal? To clarify, Cwave has never given any reasoning whatsoever against Cascades. I initially had a town-leaning read on Cwave, but his recent posts and the Sheth flip are giving me serious doubts. Sheth dodged his three-out-of-eight scum potential longlist: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12842093 Also he's clearly not reading the same Sheth filter that I ploughed through yesterday: On December 22 2011 21:33 Cwave wrote: He posted calm and constructive, tried to contribute and had good posts with arguments about people in the spotlight. I didn't see scum in him. | ||
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On December 24 2011 01:36 Jitsu wrote: People keep bringing my name up, yet no one has anything definitive to say. Hopefully one of you guys will stop wasting time. You were tunnelling Comprissent and now that he flipped green, there's not a whole lot else positive in your filter. However I think your original case against Sheth looks pretty good now: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12817121 So unless there's a massive scumslip in the next few hours I think we should hit Cascades or Cwave today. Ideally Zeks has a vig shot left and can clear up the other one tonight. | ||
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On December 24 2011 03:05 Jitsu wrote: We miss-lynched on Day One as well, so you decide to come after me because of a miss-lynch on day 3? AND there are no other reasons? That's a bullshit case, and you know it. I was tunneling him all game - in my eyes, for good reason. I'd assume that since other people voted for him, they should be lynched as well according to your logic, am I right? No, that's not what I meant. Comprissent was scummy as hell, but green, so your tunnelling makes sense regardless of whether you're town or scum. It makes you a null read, bar the anti-Sheth post. There are so many confirmed or near-confirmed townies that you're probably around #4 in most people's lynch-target lists. If you don't like that, I'd suggest posting some fresh analysis. | ||
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Reasons to lynch Cwave: See all the cases in the last few pages. Reasons to lynch Cascades: Posting is almost all defensive and/or veteran-hate. Also I still think this is a scumslip: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12795425 Cascades gets my lynch vote on the basis that Cwave posted a lot better before and there's a chance he might sort himself out. Cascades isn't going to change. | ||
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Thinking that Intelligence Officer will probably be able to hand out a DT check or two, which ought to win the game unless something bad is happening. | ||
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Deus: Assumed Cascades Cwave: (Cascades) Radfield: Cwave Greymist: Cwave Zeks: (Cwave) TNTP: Cwave jaj22: Cascades risk.nuke: Cascades Jitsu: Refallen also: Cascades: Probably voted Cwave for self-defence. He likes self-defence. Refallen: (Never stated vote, but was leaning Cascades) Zentor: (Felt sorry for scum and killed himself) Due to Cwave getting the votes earlier (probably) and Jitsu sitting on the fence, Cwave was getting lynched regardless of shenanigans. The lost votes give Cwave a clear margin. The comment about tied votes in the election makes no sense at all to me. Does anyone want to admit to either failing to switch their vote properly or voting for someone else? It sounds like it'd take more than scum votes, unless they totally botched the timing on another power... | ||
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On December 25 2011 01:10 DEUS-ex-MAFIA wrote: cascades is claiming scum in the thread over and over, you guys just ignore it. I mean wtf. This guy survived 2 lynches Are you worried that he'll beat your record? (re: annul in XLVIII) | ||
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The Jitsu shot doesn't make much sense to me. Jitsu's only real offence as far as I can tell is to make one horrible anti-town vote. At least if you'd hit Refallen, you'd have either hit scum, a liar, or confirmed a blue, and Radfield claims he preferred Cascades over Jitsu. So, questions for Radfield: 1. How hard did you try to persuade Zeks not to shoot Jitsu? 2. Did Zeks have any more vig shots left when he died? 3. If you were happy to let him pick a shot that you disagreed with, why did you choose to PM Zeks when he was near-confirmed town? Also, questions for TNTP: 1. How hard did Radfield try to persuade Zeks not to shoot Jitsu? 2. Was there anything in the Zeks/Radfield chat that made you so sure that Radfield is town? HoD: Don't make the same mistake that you made in Newbie Mini Mafia. Regardless, I think we should hit Cascades today, as he's by far the scummiest player left and he's now looking like an good information lynch too. I have a greener read on risk.nuke than Refallen, although I haven't checked his filter for a while, so I'll probably be voting for him in the election. | ||
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On December 26 2011 09:14 Radfield wrote: 3. Zeks had alluded that he had some kind of protective action left. If that was the case I wanted to be able to co-ordinate with him. That doesn't make much sense, as Zeks would almost certainly have used any protective action on you anyway. Also, once you discovered that Zeks had no protective action, the obvious response would be to get TNTP to "remind" the scum that he did. Note that this is another possible reason that you're still alive. Maybe I'm reading too much into this. I thought the conventional wisdom was that the PM power was a really good way to tell if someone's scum. If that's not true, then PMing Zeks makes sense. Given the conclusion at the end of this post, the question no longer matters anyway. Anyway, I was considering writing up a case on you based on your actions being consistently pro-scum and none of your posts being unreasonable for a smart scum player, but then on second read I spotted these posts: On December 15 2011 03:00 Radfield wrote: I agree completely on dropbear. He would be my number 1 target for a vig hit tonight. On December 15 2011 03:14 Radfield wrote: Why do you think Dropbear is town? Why do you think he is going to be an asset to town this game? So far his play has been very lacking. You're right that it probably doesn't make sense for vigilantes to shoot tonight though. If you only have one bullet, and are not likely to get shot, it makes sense to save it for Night 2 or 3. However, if you have multiple bullets or have to shoot, he is a good target. Mainly though I just wanted to see what syllo had to say. I expected him to say Dropbear, and I'm glad he did. This is totally implausible scum play on risk/reward unless you've somehow figured that there are almost certainly no vigs in a unique game. So I'm now >99% convinced that Radfield is town. | ||
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On December 27 2011 04:22 DEUS-ex-MAFIA wrote: "@Deus: I don't think I'll ever be happy with your explanation but your list looks solid so let's roll with it for the moment. Electing you as police chief rather than prankster is zero-risk anyway." cool. He's electing me despite he accused me since he joined the game. thank you. There was nothing you could do to harm town in the Police Chief position, hence "zero-risk". In fact, because it made you ineligible for later elections, it was if anything a risk-reduction. Even if I had a strong scum read on you, I'd still have voted for you. For what it's worth, I had a null read at worst on you overall despite the ProfBA defense. I'm not inclined to give people a scum read just on one thing that doesn't make sense to me, as a lot of people do stuff that doesn't make sense to me. The rest of your play looked good. On December 27 2011 04:22 DEUS-ex-MAFIA wrote: "Nah, that'd make no sense given that most people have a town read on him." huh change of mind. okay... This is from this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12847258 It's just an explanation of why Police Chief was zero-risk, even if you were scum. Are you disputing that most players had a town read on you at the time? My own opinion of you was not important to the point. Marserblood was indefensible, and would no doubt have been added to the long line of newbie town corpses if he'd stayed in the game. Looking into your other stuff now. I need to re-read all these filters anyway. | ||
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On elections: I don't think it matters much who gets the second election place as if they don't share the plans openly, they're just going to get lynched tomorrow. What might get ugly is if mafia can use that candidate-withdrawal power a third time, but that stuff happens after my bedtime anyway. @TNTP: Remember to make your extra vote. | ||
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On December 28 2011 13:15 GreYMisT wrote: So reread jaj with cascades as scum in mind, and came across this post. Her he is posting his scumreads. however if you look at the cascades topic, all it is is just a personality analysis, there is nothing about him being scum listed here. All it says is he is playing angry and doesnt like the vets. he does not say whether or not he thinks cascades is scum or town or what. No, that's not all that it's saying. It's highlighting a possible scumtell despite Cascades' apparent personality. I wasn't very confident in it so I was really hoping that other people would give their opinion after I highlighted it. I suppose I should have been more aggressive with my wording. The second point I would like to make is the fact that he was here when my wagon was building, however he mentioned nothing about it. no attacks onto me, no defense of me. Because I was still busy on the other filters. By the time I got to the Greymist question, you'd already roleclaimed. I imagine I'd have prioritised your filter if it'd been anywhere near the end of the day, but as it was I was just processing Deus's questions in order. Anyway, I don't think there's much information in the military campaigns that could be of use to scum nightkills, so I'll paraphrase them here: Campaign #1: Cause a double lynch in the next cycle. Campaign #2: Reveal identities of all third party players. #1 is the obvious choice given the number of players remaining if we don't think there are really any third parties (we get three lynches rather than two before the end of the game). #2 is worrying me because both TNTP and Radfield are plausible third parties. | ||
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If that's true, I'll just go with option #1. | ||
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Mailed in option #1 anyway. The PM says I'm supposed to submit it as soon as possible, so this was already a stretch. | ||
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On December 29 2011 12:56 GreYMisT wrote: The double lynch plan was the one that jaj sent you. when he explained them to us why in the name of god did he not think that fully revealing its nature would be beneficial? Because it's a complete irrelevance when there's only one scum remaining. I just couldn't be bothered to paraphrase it On December 29 2011 13:39 GreYMisT wrote: Oh and another reason i think that jaj22 might be scum: someone pointed out that its odd that rad was shot when risk implied that he was picking a protect power. notice the fact that jaj has not posted since after he sent in his plan. Its plausable that he sent in the kill on rad, and wasnt around for when risk announced his bluff. This one, however, is absolutely true. I was aiming to concede today anyway, as I lost the will to post cases somewhere in the middle of day 5. Kinda wanted to see the military plans first in case they were something like "kill all odd-numbered players". I am the mafia Black Mailer! Twice per game, I may nullify all election votes for target player. My action cannot be submitted within 2 hours of the end of the election cycle. Big thumbs up to my scumbuddies Cascades and Sheth for sticking out a game despite a really bad situation. Big thumbs down to the veterans for getting killed for bad reasons. ScumQT: http://www.quicktopic.com/47/H/HtbewFxEK9ba And finally a message for anyone reading this thread who's thinking about playing TL Mafia: Ok, so you've read a few games, you think you can pick out scum and you're capable of writing a decent forum post. On the other hand, you can't play SC2 multiplayer because it's too stressful and you often lay awake at night worrying about forum posts. If this sounds like you, DO NOT PLAY TL MAFIA. It will kill you. gg guys. | ||
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Good shot anyway. I was surprised that anyone suspected Deus after his night 3 "chat" with Sheth. I couldn't convince myself to make a case on him after that. | ||
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On December 30 2011 00:05 supersoft wrote: edit1: I also think the scumteam did a really good job. Especially sheth. At least until the night where he paniced because of my wifoming and no roleblock happened. Did you decide not to roleblock anyone because of my watcher ability? Oddly enough, Sheth sounded pretty sure in the QT that you were just bluffing, so I'm not quite sure what he was doing there - disastrous attempt to gain towncred, maybe. He actually roleblocked Greymist. My preference was Zeks. | ||
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On December 30 2011 03:01 GreYMisT wrote: Obviously I never used my prankster ability, but the fact that it was a negative ability and jan presented two town plans lead me to believe he was lying, as every election so far had a positive and a negative ability. I really did get two town plans though. Risk got the scummy plan. Not quite sure about the point of that one, as anyone implementing it would be insta-lynched. I don't recall lying all game apart from pretending that I didn't know the scumteam and misclaiming in the secret ballot. I actually picked up on Cascades' scumtell post before joining the game, and the townie in me just couldn't resist highlighting it. I was hoping no-one would bother reading my posts for a while and then I could drag it out later, but I guess it was just suspiciously weak. | ||
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On December 30 2011 06:03 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: And there wasn't much you could have done jaj, with the possible exception of all out bussing cascades as soon as you subbed in. It wasn't that I thought you'd been particularly scummy, I was just very heavily leaning town on everyone else left in the game, and I am guessing that was the case with most of the others as well. Yeah, that was my view. If you looked beyond style, Deus and Risk both had multiple alibis for being town and even Refallen had some decent anti-Sheth posts. I just had a weak bus to my credit I couldn't bus Cascades properly as we desperately needed the KP for another night or two. I thought Cascades was doomed on day 4 but he was a much less popular lynch than I expected, so Zeks' shot turned out to be critical. Would like to see you playing in some more games in the future :-D I'm kinda hoping that the mods put me down for a lifetime ban. Which reminds me, I forgot to thank Kitaman and CyberCheese for their quality hosting, a very interesting setup and the ScumQT encouragement. Sorry I bailed early, guys. | ||
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@Jitsu: I honestly didn't think you did much wrong other than that day 4 vote. It's generally pro-town to vote early and for one of the main lynch candidates. Even though that vote was a secret ballot, it was so close that it had a good chance of catching scum vote-switching. | ||
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