EPTHassyBaby could still be a good lynch for today.
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Grackaroni
United States9846 Posts
HassyBaby could still be a good lynch for today. | ||
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Grackaroni
United States9846 Posts
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Grackaroni
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On December 06 2011 05:12 ElectricBlack wrote: adam's probably not scum. xsksc I'm on the fence about, and I haven't read bbyte well enough through to make the call. Why are you ignoring my case against Hassybaby? You guys should definitely take the time to read EB's case on Hassy if you haven't done so, its a really well written argument and to me makes a lot of sense. | ||
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Grackaroni
United States9846 Posts
On December 06 2011 06:21 Tunkeg wrote: I am happy I took a step back and didn't pursue the argument with xsksc. The argument itself was to long, and it looks like the activity in the thread have suffered from it. I still think he is scum for the reasons previous listed, and I will uphold my vote on him. I will change it though if him getting lynched are highly unlikely by the time I have to go to bed (approxiumately 2 hours). So if you consider voting for him, vote before that time. I do not like him jumping ship on me, leaving for Bbyte. That beeing said, I am more conserned with Grackaronis vote at the moment. His vote came right after xsksc's vote. He have been xsksc's parrot after xsksc's switch to aggressive. That beeing said I have not taken a stance on the votes on Bbyte, I need to read more of his posts to make sure if he is really as lurky and scummy as you guys portray him. Finally I would like to say that I am not against lynching lurkers, as stated in my opening post, but only if we can't find others who appear scummy. Lynching a scummy non-lurker will IMO give more information to the town, than lynching a lurker. I do believe that xsksc is town and did side with him against you. in fact I started getting suspicious of you a while ago. if you are looking for somebody to blame for putting pressure on you, I started agreeing with the suspicion of you changing his mind about him after Jaybrundage asked me what I thought of xsksc. I am probably one of the reasons you got a lot of attention, but I have been making my own decisions On December 05 2011 14:21 Grackaroni wrote: Here is another quote that makes me fairly suspicious of Tunkeg : This quote + his changing of opinion on xsksc without anything further happening in the thread make Tunkeg suspicious. Tunkeg has shown some inconsistencies between what he puts on his reads and what he actually feels. @Blazinghand : You're my strongest town read and have shown that you're good at analyzing, can you give me you're opinion on Tunkeg once you get back from dinner. I don't like that you are accusing me of "parroting xsksc." He is on my town list and I have been siding with him but I am still making my own decisions. My vote was on Adam at the time and it simply didn't seem like you were going to be lynched and I'm still not positive you are mafia. BByte has not contributed and has a stupid (what seems to be an OMGUS) vote on Veli. I think that this is just a bad move but it is possible that he purposely put his vote on somebody not going to be lynched to distance himself from any blame. Is it likely that he is scum? probably not. Will he contribute at all to the game? Even more likely not. I've said throughout the game that we should look for a strong analysis on the active players before we look to lynch a lurker. I feel we have done a lot of analyzing and it is unlikely that we will agree on who is mafia in the time we have left. , I don't want to join your bandwagon on xsksc and the only other person who had a chance to be lynched was xsksc/adam It looked like from the tunneling between xsksc and You that 2 sides were beginning to form Me supporting xsksc and Xtfftc supporting Tunkeg. Perhaps this should be looked at for future reads but I'm not sure it says too much about anyone's alignment. It is entirely possible that both you and xsksc is town. I still feel that Hassybaby should be looked at as a target for the lynch. If you want to know why once again read EB's case. If you would like to accuse me of being scum, please look through my filter and build a case. I would much rather you do that than mildly hinting that I have been "parroting" Xsksc. | ||
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Grackaroni
United States9846 Posts
The other options right now were Adam/Xsksc/Hassybaby but I don't think any of them will be lynched. BByte is our best option atm, we tried to get some good scumreads and I think we've had some helpful discussions. The town cannot yet agree on a likely scum so we will have to opt for a lurker. | ||
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Grackaroni
United States9846 Posts
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Grackaroni
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NOBODY IS A CONFIRMED TOWNIE I've become concerned with BH's presence in this game. He tells people to vote for Adam for discrediting him ----> people vote for Adam He tells people to switch to EB for not voting -------> people switch to EB He tells people to switch to BByte ------> BByte is lynched He tells people to not talk at night ------> Mine is one of the first posts that's not his. I voted for 2/3 of these people; I feel like maybe I wouldn't have put my vote on them if BH had not suggested to. The town, including myself, have started sheeping him and treating him like he is a confirmed town. The last newbie game was lost because of too much trust in 2 players, 1 of them ended up being scum. I don't know if it's been different for other people, but the main reason I started believing BH was definitely town was his activity level throughout the game. He seemed to be actively scum hunting at the start accusing people, but in reality at the start of the game all he did was jump on people who didn't post yet because they were busy/didn't know the game had started. I believe that scum would more likely want to draw less attention to themselves but It's possible that BH is actually just a good player that posts and accuses a lot regardless of his alignment. I feel like we pushed the "easy" lynches of Adam/BByte and EB (before he started analyzing) This is fine for day1, but come day2 we better be more willing to look thoroughly into the players who have been active and are "contributing". (the chance that scum wouldn't have a single active player goes beyond unlikely...) My point about BH is this : He has a lot of town cred and has gained a very strong position as a trusted townie and a town leader role. Remember to remain cautious of him and that there are no truly confirmed townies. Everyone should be having their own opinions for the lynch tomorrow, not following BH's. My last point : ONLY MAFIA KNOW THEIR REASONS FOR KILLING A PLAYER let me explain, in this hypothetical situation I have been shot by the mafia. When you look through my filter do not use things I said as main parts of analysis because you cannot truly know why they would have killed me. When you looked through my filter after my hypothetical death, do not use arguments such as: OMG, HE WAS SUSPICIOUS OF TUNKEG THEREFORE TUNKEG IS MAFIA TRYING TO PROTECT HIMSELF! HE WAS SIDING WITH XSKSC, THEREFORE XSKSC IS MAFIA TRYING TO PAINT HIMSELF MORE TOWN! BH KILLED HIM BECAUSE HE SAID HE FELT BH WAS GETTING TOO MUCH POWER AND THAT TOWNIES WERE FOLLOWING HIM BLINDLY! just to be clear, I am not saying that BH is mafia, I'm just saying that he is not a confirmed town and that nobody should follow him blindly. IF things continued to go the same way as they went day1 and BH was mafia, there would be no hope for town to win. | ||
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Grackaroni
United States9846 Posts
On December 07 2011 04:09 Blazinghand wrote: Hm. That's true, the extra 24 hours may make the difference. On the other hand, it's worth noting that at the beginning of the day, we do receive another piece of information: assuming that either (a) there is no doctor or (b) the doctor guesses wrong, one of us dies and is a confirmed townie or blue. A dead confirmed townie or blue, but a confirmed townie or blue no less. This information might be unhelpful but it could also play a big role in terms of analysis. Seeing the flips can definitely help your own reads, I suggest that you try to reread the thread after each death because it may give you some new perspective. That said do not use the flips as a base for a case against somebody because that is likely to have been manipulated by scum | ||
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Grackaroni
United States9846 Posts
Keep in mind what I said earlier, EB made a case on Hassy; EB's death doesn't necessarily mean that Hassy is mafia. I must admit though that this was an unexpected death IMO. | ||
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Grackaroni
United States9846 Posts
I need some time to catch up with the thread and then I will give you my opinions. I have plenty of time to play today so if you want my comments on something I'll answer them. | ||
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Grackaroni
United States9846 Posts
On December 07 2011 13:58 ey215 wrote: Ok, my apologies guys. I was under the impression that we didn't have to post/do anything during the night phase unless we were mafia/blue. I choose to study for my final in the morning instead of checking the thread. I'd like to take the discussion in at least a mildly different direction and ask if we should be acting on the information we got by the mafia offing EB. Frankly, I was a little surprised they didn't go after Blazing unless they thought we'd have a medic and they'd be protecting him. Also, do they want us lynching one of the three people (if I recall correctly) that EB had focused on or did they get rid of him to shut him up and keep him from persuading us? I'm personally of the opinion that we should lynch the scummiest of jayb, xtf, or hassey and see where that leads us. I'm still not completely caught up with the thread but this is my reasoning for EB's death. EB wasn't the most active townie but he did show that he could post a strong case, whether the case on Hassy was true or not. BH was easily seen as the most trusted townie; It would be foolish for them to kill him because there was definitely a medic or a watcher on him. BH not dying in no way means that he is mafia. On December 06 2011 10:37 ElectricBlack wrote: Ignore Blazinghand's advice. It's not the best way to proceed. The mafia has exactly one night kill, and any vanilla townie would be happy to be at the receiving end, so they should post and make the mafia afraid of them during the night. Incidentally, the blue roles should do the same, as to not stand out from the vanilla townies. This is to be expected, It is very easy for mafia to deflect the day 1 lynch onto an inactive/scummy townie. I hope tomorrow we can resume playing on a more analytical basis. There was no reason to kill this guy over for example Hassybaby. EB made a quote about blue roles during the night, generally blue's tend to talk more about Blue roles than vanilla townies. My guess is that the Mafia was simply trying to hunt for blues. | ||
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Grackaroni
United States9846 Posts
On December 07 2011 10:18 Blazinghand wrote: This is the principle core of my argument. Jaybrundage, for the most part, presents a vaguely helpful-sounding face but never actually does anything. And this final post, here? This post is a post that could have helped, but he waited until 1 minute after the polls closed. He did it because he wanted BByte dead, but he wanted to LOOK like he wanted to stop it. Think about the motivations behind a post like this. Think carefully, and form your own judgement. Ladies and Gentlemen, there's no way a town player would make this post. No way at all. This is definitely the best case for why JB is scum. On December 06 2011 08:22 jaybrundage wrote: Well looks like Bbyte is going to be the lynch target of today. Its weird when ever BH sets his sight on someone it seems most everyone follows suit. While i believe his vote on veli was really out of place and not supported with much evidence i do think that it would be odd for a mafia to just vote someone seemingly pro-town. Without any support. Im not going to vote for him because i don't think hes mafia. BH you never gave me any answer why you think im scum please enlighten me. Here he states that he won't vote for BByte because he doesn't think he's mafia. This post seems like it's meant to make him look pro-town after BByte flips town. He gives no reasons for why he doesn't think BByte is mafia other than a couple of times saying that his case on Veli changed his mind. Frankly his case on Veli did nothing to convince me he was town. On December 06 2011 10:01 jaybrundage wrote: Atm i wouldnt vote hassybaby for the same reason i didn't vote Bbyte. Hassybaby has not been able to defend himself. And now that Bbyte is hear hes came to late to defend himself. I hope hes mafia but i dont have a good feeling about this. Why do you put in "I dont have a good feeling about this" If you are against the vote take a stance and help show people why you think that BByte is town. All you're saying in this post is something to look back at so you can say something like: "Look! I was against lynching this townie." On December 06 2011 05:46 jaybrundage wrote: I really hopes Bbyte can come in here and defend himself. I know hes been semi lurking but he hasn't even got to see this recent move against him. On December 06 2011 07:11 jaybrundage wrote: In the last 2 quotes he does the same thing as before, he posts lines that make it look like he is against the lynch but not actually defending BByte:ey are you planning on voting for hassybaby. So far bbyte is gonna get lynched regardless unless we have a change.I would still like to see his defense. But so far it doesnt look good. But honestly last minute switches always put me at unease. I still plan to stick to adam i would like to see what he has to say about whats going on so far. And EB if you think adam is not a good candidate plz state why this post. Isn't going to change anything. Put in some content i would like to see more of your thoughts. But besides Hassybaby's case which was actually pretty good. And you arguing with xsksc which granted showed that you can post very well when you want too. Why give me this one liner it's not gonna change anything I really hopes Bbyte can come in here and defend himself. So far bbyte is gonna get lynched regardless unless we have a change.I would still like to see his defense. But so far it doesnt look good. This is the main argument for why JB is scum, when choosing your vote try not to factor in the random points such as JB asking EB's opinion after he was already dead. The logic behind those posts are much more spotty because it's entirely possible that he was writing the post before the death post came. @JB: I can see the point that you think BH and Veli came after BByte because he was posting a case against Veli, Much like Adam was targeted for thinking BH/Veli were suspicious. I'd like to see some more reasoning besides the fact that BByte/Adam were the lynch targets. I will look more closely into what you are saying. | ||
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Grackaroni
United States9846 Posts
@BH : Why is Ey215 one of your main town reads? I think he is just sheeping your vote. | ||
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Grackaroni
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On December 08 2011 13:37 Adam4167 wrote: I don't see what you see at all. I see BKEXE quote BH's book that he wrote on jay, ramble on about policy (a bit late in the piece for this really..), then dump his vote on jay after calling him an idiot. Oh and don't forget declaring how new he is... again. Your case on BKEXE was exactly where I was heading with the next day (assuming I survive the night.). It was well done and did a good job of highlighting exactly how BKEXE has been playing thus far, however I am going to highlight something you missed: BKEXE and jay have been defending each other this entire game: Here Here Here Here Here BKEXE's more recent posts aimed at jay are nothing more than distancing because we have shifted focus onto them. It is just a smokescreen, do not buy into this nonsense. Great find. I like the case from BH about Jays hedging and how he continuously posted that he was against the BByte lynch just for the sake of being able to show that he was against it. He did not once actually stand up for BByte On December 06 2011 08:22 jaybrundage wrote: Well looks like Bbyte is going to be the lynch target of today. Its weird when ever BH sets his sight on someone it seems most everyone follows suit. While i believe his vote on veli was really out of place and not supported with much evidence i do think that it would be odd for a mafia to just vote someone seemingly pro-town. Without any support. Im not going to vote for him because i don't think hes mafia. BH you never gave me any answer why you think im scum please enlighten me. If you did not believe that BByte was mafia why didn't you stand up for him? All you did was continually say you were against the lynch and that you wish he would be able to come defend himself. You have been more than willing to stand up for BKEXE multiple times this game, but won't stand up for BByte? If JB flips scum BKEXE definitely deserves a lot of attention. I am convinced that JB is scum ##Vote: Jaybrundage | ||
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Grackaroni
United States9846 Posts
On December 09 2011 07:18 ey215 wrote: Ok, I was going to save this for tomorrow as I didn’t think I was going to need it today and was still doing the research, but Tunkeg’s probability lynching forced my hand. For the record, I do think Tunkeg is onto something. I’ll start that by saying that I understand why he left himself out, but it would be wise of the town to remember that he too voted for BByte and needs to be looked at just as strongly as the rest of us. I’m not making that case here, mainly because after reading his stuff I don’t think he’s scum, but some other eyes on it would be nice. The only thing that has me concerned about him at the moment is the way he’s grabbed onto xttfc’s case against me, then managed to put my name twice into his lists on the probability lynches and then mildly pushed BH to look at it deeper, therefore potentially getting a bandwagon rolling. For today, I’m not that worried about it but look in the future how these cases and lynches of townies developed. I have come to believe that the mafia started laying the groundwork for future cases on townies in Day 1 so as not to appear to just be switching from one day to another. At the time that this case started against me, I was looking like I’d be a counter weight to BH and therefore might have some persuasive power around here. It has not turned out that way, but remember the context when this starts. At that point in Day 1, BH and I had our argument, got over it and moved on, then xtfftc comes around and decides that based off of being defensive and to make sure to hammer that point home cherry picks some quotes out of context and uses them six hours later to plant his seeds. + Show Spoiler + On December 04 2011 21:18 xtfftc wrote: Policy or not, everyone should be doing this. Mafia are bound to slip and they will also be reluctant to talk about their teammates slipping, so this is very pro-town behaviour. If you see something you consider to be a lie, mention it. You might be wrong but it's important anyway. And it will also help differentiate between townies who are hunting for mafia and the mafia players who are trying not to attract attention. (I still think that pushing for heavy policies is pro-mafia though, it takes the pressure away from them by allowing them to follow some simple guidelines) Town doesn't benefit from last minute lynches, mafia does. If you see someone suddenly pushing for a lynch near the deadline when there isn't enough time for a proper discussion, it is very likely that this person is mafia. Dude, no need to be so defensive. Blazinghand is trying hard to organise the town. I don't agree with some of his ideas but they are stuff to be discussed. There is absolutely no need for a townie to react like you did. Blazing's play so far is great. Then he gives this gem: If I’m such a strong read, why didn’t you push to lynch me at all Day 1? I put forth the theory that no one responded really latched onto the idea, and you didn’t want to go out of your way to stand out that early. You’ve been setting up this Day 2 attempt at a lynch since yesterday. Also, while this is going on we get Grackaroni coming around and starts by giving this read on me: Then starts subtlety leading Tunked to me: So they let it go for the day and don’t really try to get the bandwagon going. Now look what happens today, we get the case against me followed almost immediately by a post by Grackaroni trying to get BH to take a look: The beauty of those two posts by Grackaroni is that they allow him to steer how other people my look at someone and get them to make the case on me, instead of he having to do it himself. He can let BH get or not get a bandwagon going, and no one remembers the actual post that started him down that road. I believe these two have been working together from the outset and the only side that could coordinate like that is mafia. Now, again I’d like to see xtfftc respond to some accusations about him without just brushing it off as trolling as he did with EB. Since EB was conveniently killed overnight, he wasn’t here to defend himself and xtfftc was let off scot free. Again, killing EB made no sense unless he was on to at least one scum in that list. I currently think it was two, Jay and xtfftc. I know you're asking yourself this townies, "But wait! You can't prove any of this unless you're town and we're not sure that you are!". Yes, I know that's why I expect that if the lynch goes through tonight you'll be able to use some of this on Day 3. So, my scum list: jaybrundage, xtfftc, Grackaroni Enjoy. For reference the first quote you took from me is very old. Your mafia team consists of the 1 person that everyone agrees is scum, Xtfftc, who voted and made a case against you. And me, who has been suspicious of you. You have a bunch of quotes from me asking people questions. I sincerely want to know why players like Tunkeg and BH continually think that you are town. Upon question Tunkeg's reads seem more inconsistent, his opinion of xsksc changed during a time when xsksc didn't even post. If anyone I was siding more with xsksc than xtfttc, look at Tunkeg/xsksc argument. I was more sure that Tunkeg was suspicious, xttftc voted for xsksc. From what I understand the basis of your case is that I am asking people questions to make them look more suspicious. I am simply asking questions to gain more information. This doesn't go as far as OMGUS, but perhaps you should consider that just because people seem to be against you, does not mean they are scum. | ||
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Grackaroni
United States9846 Posts
On December 08 2011 04:21 Blazinghand wrote: ey215, you're on the list of people I have a town read on. Could you look into xtsc/tunkeg debate a bit? I need to read up on it as well, but getting a solid read in there would also be good. Also, I can't throw out the possibility that Veli is bussing JB. I'll be examining his posting as well. If you could help with this that would be great. Replacement people: please try to get posting. We need you guys to develop a presence in the game asap. This is where I got that you felt that Ey215 was town | ||
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Grackaroni
United States9846 Posts
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Grackaroni
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I just noticed that Tunkeg also changed his vote to Ey215 | ||
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Grackaroni
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On December 09 2011 08:22 ey215 wrote: By the way BH, if they manage to get enough votes flipped onto me to lynch me today then I expect them to come after you Day 3. The post above lays the groundwork for it. Not too committal, but planting that seed of doubt. So you would rather follow BH to the end of the earth? a LOT of people sheeped him day1 which is just too dangerous. People were considering him a confirmed townie and if he was scum the game would be hopeless. | ||
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Grackaroni
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On December 09 2011 09:17 ey215 wrote: BH or you? I take BH. I wasn't pointing out whether you were right or wrong on the sheeping. I was pointing out that there was a groundwork being laid to get him lynched if there is a doctor and they managed to save him (if he's town) tonight. Don't use me against him, if you think he's mafia go make your case. I didn't say one time in that quote that BH was mafia. Is this the only post you have for me "laying out my groundwork to lynch him after I fail to shoot him." BH is amazing at making analysis posts and secured a spot early as the town leader. Naturally people began to sheep him which I felt was dangerous because there are no confirmed towns. Build a real case against me. What you are saying is hypothetical, that my post telling people to make their own opinions and to not sheep BH because there are no confirmed townies is groundwork for lynching him. | ||
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) I think he is someone who I should watch more but he is contributing so he should not be lynched today.
