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On November 14 2011 00:00 IMABUNNEH wrote:Good game guys. I think I lost it a bit at the end, I was usually in a hurry the last ingame day, and it led a few of my posts to be a bit too obvious I think, I was probably lucky not to get the vote turned onto me if I'm honest. Reading the Observer QT gave me more information than the game did! :D All in all had fun, learned some things, and somehow avoided being asked anything real for the majority of the game. Looking forward to maybe playing another one soon
My first game was as scum well. Thinking like a mafia becomes a lot easier once you have played as vanilla town at least once.
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On November 13 2011 13:29 Ciryandor wrote: GG (can't re anymore :p) I'm surprised nobody doubted me when I was scrambling all over on the last two days.
kind of. I was thinking about you earlier and asked you out really short that I don't like it and I didn't like your analyses at all which got me thinking but at that point in time I told you that I don't like it and completly ignored it because I thought if you really are mafia this is already gg. No way I could have made people lynch you ;D And I didn't really follow those last 2 days so I don't know about that sry.
So the only one I thought was mafia and turned out to be right was bunneh I guess. xsk... whatevs was my number #5 (think it was drem-hackle-skrammen-bunneh-xsk? and switched skrammen with bunneh)
But yeah great game by mafia. First 3 days really screwed us.
Edit: Game is over, I am allowed to edit now right? If not really really sorry but I don't see a reason for why I should not do so. Kita said in our observer-qt that he wanted to point out that he didn't like me talking about so many possibilities like I could be mafia (don't think he did yet, at least I haven't seen it) and just to explain it:
After hyshes died I send curu a depressed pm asking for what I should look because frankly, if what hyshes wasn't a scummy move I didn't know by what standards I should search for scummy moves (even if I got the same chance again, with a little magical fairy called kita telling me for some reason hyshes is 90% townie 10%mafia and those numbers were granted I still would not hesitate to do the exact same thing again to be honest). He replied that I should look at what people post and especially have a look at what they don't post. So I figured I'm better off explaining why me being mafia is bullshit :p Also, that's the reason I didn't like cyris analyses to begin with.
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Toad you overthought things a lot. In particular was that post where you just randomly listed all the possible alignment combinations of you and Skrammen. That just led town on a loop because it was completely off-base.
When you do something like that, you invite scum to come in and manipulate. Then, town will lynch one of you. When one of you flips town they're predisposed to lynching the other the next day. It might not be logically correct, but simply the fact that you created a dichotomy between yourself and the other guy means that mafia will use that opportunity to force two really easy mislynches. The two of you are already scummy, you're both town, why not forge a false dichotomy and then kill both of you?
Notice this post:
On November 02 2011 06:18 xsksc wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2011 00:48 Toadesstern wrote: got home from university now and yeah let's get a little analysis what happened last day.
Let's just pretend we don't know a thing. In that scernario everything's possible. I could be green, I could be red, Skrammen could be green and Skrammen could be red. Same with Zanfa and risk but I'm going to talk about Skrammen and me since the two of us are the main subjects in this thread right now.
1) Both red Let's start with the easy one and pretend both Skrammen and I am red. In that case the two of us are stupid and I'm blaming him to be mafia while he is blaming me to be mafia. I know we're not really blameing each other but I did vote for him so I guess that counts, too. That does not sound like a good plan for mafia imo.
2) Both green Next possibilty: We're both green. If that turns out to be true towns horribly fucked. Not because of the fact that both of us are green but since we didn't even get a majority on a green while mafia is probably even helping us or at least spreading their votes and therefore we might have 1 or 2 mafias on Skrammen as well. And still we don't get a majority. If that's true we got a major problem because we're not going to get a lynch anytime soon (= free kill for mafia without having the chance to kill a mafia or at least get GRANTED information). => pretty much everyone could be mafia because they're able to vote whoever they want without having to manipulate votes at least a bit.
3) Skrammen green, I'm red In that case town got a heavy problem as well. Skrammen was closest for having a majority and it's pretty much the same as the second possibility: I'm mafia and I went for a wagon issued by someone else and still town hasn't got a majority. That would mean that out of those 6 votes probably 2 or 3 votes are issued by mafias (my vote at least + maybe my buddies) while 3 townies voted for Skrammen, 3 voted for me, 2 voted for Zanfa and 1 voted for Chocolate. That's not exactly what you want to do as town, no matter what.
4) I'm green, Skrammen is red In that situation mafia is probably not going to vote for skrammen in the first place. They want to safe their buddy as long as it's possible without leaking information of who actually is mafia out of votingbehaviors right before the deadline. Also this would mean we got at most 1 mafia voting for Skrammen (that is if they got balls). I doubt they got the balls to put their mafia buddy on a 6-votes position themselves, just to make those other 2 mafias really hidden. There could always be a hero votechange 1h before the deadline which would have made a lynch. So in that scenario we probably got about 5 townies voting for Skrammen, maybe it's even 6, while mafia is trying to get us on someone else. Therefore they got either 2 votes on me, 1 vote on me + 1 vote on zanfa or 2 votes on zanfa (the third one is Skrammens vote on choc), while 3 townies did not choose to vote for Skrammen.
For me it's kind of clear. I can rule out possibilty 1 (let's face it, noone's that stupid). I think 3 is pretty unlikely. I just think town should be able to get more than 3 votes on a single person without mafia therefore I think there's no mafia votes on Skrammen. If there are we're really fucked. 2 and 4 could be possible in my opinion. Having 5 or 6 townies able to focus their votes on 1 single person while 3 are not sure what to do sounds reasonable for me (compare with example 3: I don't think we got only 3 people being able to focus their votes while the rest is spreading their votes for whatever reason). Therefore I'd say its 4 > 2 > 3 > 1
I'm still not saying I think Skrammen's 100% sure red, and if he's green than risk is green as well. But I think it's a better explanation than the two of us being green or 'me red + Skrammen green' or both red. #1 Is pretty unlikely imo. #2 Is a possibility, I think at least one of you is scum though, I'd be very surprised if this was the case, and we're fucked if it is. #3 I was very suspicious of you early on, but I ended up voting skarmmen because his later posts seemed really dodgy, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if you were scum. #4 At the moment I'm trying to figure out which of you two is more likely to be town, because that would almost certainly make the other scum. However this is probably the most likely of the 4 options in my eyes.
Does exactly that.
You say that you think Skrammen is mafia (and so you must be town obviously) and the majority opinion in the thread (albeit very heavily scum-influenced) was the same as yours. The problem is that people swallowed that really easily. When a lot of people think someone is scum, and that person easily gets votes, either the scum is super bad, or chances are it's just a townie getting bandwagoned. In this case xsksc did the easy thing and he just agreed with you, cementing the notion that you are opposite alignments.
As for hyshes, I have no idea what he was doing, but when someone starts doing dumb stuff or overall doesn't care about getting lynched (particularly as a new player) chances are very strong that they are simply bored townies. I really don't know why hyshes played like he did, and no doubt it was very detrimental to town, but by all means you guys needed to ignore the distraction and focus on the people who had an actual agenda. On day3 you guys didn't see who bandwagoned, because I will bet most of you didn't go back to reread.
Look at the immediate aftermath of hyshes basically giving up. Players who immediately voted him without even thinking about it (despite saying they would) were bunneh, xsksc. Both scum. Players like Chocolate, Zanfada, and you looked much more town because you tried getting info out of hyshes before voting him. You also provided good reasons for that. HoD made a pretty good case on hyshes and so he came out of that looking more town as well. HoD's only problem was that he was tied very closely to ciryandor, so while I had xsksc+bunneh joined at the hip there were times during which I couldn't tell whether ciryandor or HoD was the real scum. I actually flopped a couple times on that.
Look at this post:
On October 31 2011 00:53 Drem903 wrote: The thing with xsksc was pretty much just a joke to try and get the ball rolling. The only person that has really garnered any suspicion from me is bunneh, and that's only because his posts seem to be "posts for the sake of posting" rather than trying to really get anything dones.
He only seems to post to try and appear active.
Perfect summary of what bunneh's day1 posting was. Why would townies just want to post just to post? Townies want to contribute. Bunneh was just posting to fly under the radar. He took it kind of badly, too, responding with this:
On October 31 2011 01:22 IMABUNNEH wrote: I'm not entirely sure what "posting for the sake of posting" is defined at, but its not like there was anything MUCH to poke at prior to my posts.
Either toads or risk.nuke definately look a bit dodgy. Both of the posts struck me as quite aggressive in turning it into finger pointing. I don't think getting all up in peoples' grills immediately is what we want. It's just going to get innocent people on the defensive from the start.
Drem has so far poked at someone randomly as a "joke" and then at myself for not getting immediately aggressive. Who's next, risk.nuke for BEING aggressive? :p I don't think finger pointing every 6 posts at a different person is going to help us.
I doubt someone with almost no activity at this point is likely to be scum though. So even though Skrammen hasn't said anything,I'd rule him out for the time being and look at the "half-active" posters. risk.nuke and hacklebeast are both pretty aggressive in getting people to turn on someone so early.
He tries to get away with "well there was nothing to talk about" but makes himself look more scummy by simply diverting attention from himself.
Scum very rarely want the spotlight on themselves. They want other people to take the heat for being scummy.
He then says we don't want aggressive townies. Well, you don't want 10 aggressive townies and no analysts, but you want aggressive townies who will push scummy players into posting more, and defending themselves. You don't want to be passive as town because that loses you games. Scum go inactive, and then they kill you by literally doing nothing.
The rest of bunneh's post has no coherence and makes very little sense. He basically just flails around in trying to say something but doesn't actually say anything, confirming exactly what Drem was talking about. He even accuses Drem of poking a lot of other players, but most tellingly, bunneh does it himself. He calls out risk.nuke, toad, then subtly throws in suspicion of drem (on opposite grounds) and then lastly hacklebeast randomly appears.
Then, he's not suspicious of an inactive player, Skrammen. Why? What does an inactive player contribute?
Later the next day bunneh went on to vote Skrammen for being inactive. This should've set off alarm bells for every town player at that point. You have a player who says we shouldn't touch inactives because they're unlikely to be scum, actually voting for an inactive because he thinks the inactivity is a scum tell.
On November 03 2011 09:56 IMABUNNEH wrote: However, I don't like that Skrammen hasn't posted since barely surviving. He's hiding too much for me, and my suspicion of him has basically done nothing since go up since I refused to vote for him. Unless I see something compelling from him, I'm going to have to make a provisional
##Vote SKrammen
Unless he posts something worthwhile, and worth waiting for, I'm unlikely to change this despite my other suspicions. It keeps coming back to him and Toads, but at least Toad doesn't look like he's trying to hide.
That behavioral contradiction was one of the biggest tells that bunneh was scum. Bunneh was earlier suspicious of toad, and said inactive players are unlikely to be scum. Later, he continued his suspicion of toad, but, for no apparent reason, changed his mind on inactives and voted Skrammen instead. No consistency there.
Then there's this:
On November 07 2011 10:47 IMABUNNEH wrote: I'm going to regret this, I don't have Chocolate pegged as a scum, but I guess we need a lynch.
##unvote Toadesstern
##vote Chocolate
Townies don't do this without putting up a tantrum. At no point did bunneh EVER defend chocolate. In fact, earlier in the day he actually considered him as a possibility for scum. If he really believed Chocolate was a townie he would've worked to stop the lynch from gaining ground.
I can't remember for the life of me what I saw that connected xsksc and bunneh, but basically they were connected 100%. This is just an example of what made xsksc scum.
Ciryandor was scum to me primarily because everyone thought he was town and he didn't die night 1 or night 2. That's pretty strange. He also said a lot of things that jumped out to me. I can go look for these things if anyone actually wants to see why.
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On November 14 2011 09:53 wherebugsgo wrote:Toad you overthought things a lot. In particular was that post where you just randomly listed all the possible alignment combinations of you and Skrammen. That just led town on a loop because it was completely off-base. When you do something like that, you invite scum to come in and manipulate. Then, town will lynch one of you. When one of you flips town they're predisposed to lynching the other the next day. It might not be logically correct, but simply the fact that you created a dichotomy between yourself and the other guy means that mafia will use that opportunity to force two really easy mislynches. The two of you are already scummy, you're both town, why not forge a false dichotomy and then kill both of you? Notice this post: Show nested quote +On November 02 2011 06:18 xsksc wrote:On November 02 2011 00:48 Toadesstern wrote: got home from university now and yeah let's get a little analysis what happened last day.
Let's just pretend we don't know a thing. In that scernario everything's possible. I could be green, I could be red, Skrammen could be green and Skrammen could be red. Same with Zanfa and risk but I'm going to talk about Skrammen and me since the two of us are the main subjects in this thread right now.
1) Both red Let's start with the easy one and pretend both Skrammen and I am red. In that case the two of us are stupid and I'm blaming him to be mafia while he is blaming me to be mafia. I know we're not really blameing each other but I did vote for him so I guess that counts, too. That does not sound like a good plan for mafia imo.
2) Both green Next possibilty: We're both green. If that turns out to be true towns horribly fucked. Not because of the fact that both of us are green but since we didn't even get a majority on a green while mafia is probably even helping us or at least spreading their votes and therefore we might have 1 or 2 mafias on Skrammen as well. And still we don't get a majority. If that's true we got a major problem because we're not going to get a lynch anytime soon (= free kill for mafia without having the chance to kill a mafia or at least get GRANTED information). => pretty much everyone could be mafia because they're able to vote whoever they want without having to manipulate votes at least a bit.
3) Skrammen green, I'm red In that case town got a heavy problem as well. Skrammen was closest for having a majority and it's pretty much the same as the second possibility: I'm mafia and I went for a wagon issued by someone else and still town hasn't got a majority. That would mean that out of those 6 votes probably 2 or 3 votes are issued by mafias (my vote at least + maybe my buddies) while 3 townies voted for Skrammen, 3 voted for me, 2 voted for Zanfa and 1 voted for Chocolate. That's not exactly what you want to do as town, no matter what.
4) I'm green, Skrammen is red In that situation mafia is probably not going to vote for skrammen in the first place. They want to safe their buddy as long as it's possible without leaking information of who actually is mafia out of votingbehaviors right before the deadline. Also this would mean we got at most 1 mafia voting for Skrammen (that is if they got balls). I doubt they got the balls to put their mafia buddy on a 6-votes position themselves, just to make those other 2 mafias really hidden. There could always be a hero votechange 1h before the deadline which would have made a lynch. So in that scenario we probably got about 5 townies voting for Skrammen, maybe it's even 6, while mafia is trying to get us on someone else. Therefore they got either 2 votes on me, 1 vote on me + 1 vote on zanfa or 2 votes on zanfa (the third one is Skrammens vote on choc), while 3 townies did not choose to vote for Skrammen.
For me it's kind of clear. I can rule out possibilty 1 (let's face it, noone's that stupid). I think 3 is pretty unlikely. I just think town should be able to get more than 3 votes on a single person without mafia therefore I think there's no mafia votes on Skrammen. If there are we're really fucked. 2 and 4 could be possible in my opinion. Having 5 or 6 townies able to focus their votes on 1 single person while 3 are not sure what to do sounds reasonable for me (compare with example 3: I don't think we got only 3 people being able to focus their votes while the rest is spreading their votes for whatever reason). Therefore I'd say its 4 > 2 > 3 > 1
I'm still not saying I think Skrammen's 100% sure red, and if he's green than risk is green as well. But I think it's a better explanation than the two of us being green or 'me red + Skrammen green' or both red. #1 Is pretty unlikely imo. #2 Is a possibility, I think at least one of you is scum though, I'd be very surprised if this was the case, and we're fucked if it is. #3 I was very suspicious of you early on, but I ended up voting skarmmen because his later posts seemed really dodgy, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if you were scum. #4 At the moment I'm trying to figure out which of you two is more likely to be town, because that would almost certainly make the other scum. However this is probably the most likely of the 4 options in my eyes. Does exactly that. You say that you think Skrammen is mafia (and so you must be town obviously) and the majority opinion in the thread (albeit very heavily scum-influenced) was the same as yours. The problem is that people swallowed that really easily. When a lot of people think someone is scum, and that person easily gets votes, either the scum is super bad, or chances are it's just a townie getting bandwagoned. In this case xsksc did the easy thing and he just agreed with you, cementing the notion that you are opposite alignments. As for hyshes, I have no idea what he was doing, but when someone starts doing dumb stuff or overall doesn't care about getting lynched (particularly as a new player) chances are very strong that they are simply bored townies. I really don't know why hyshes played like he did, and no doubt it was very detrimental to town, but by all means you guys needed to ignore the distraction and focus on the people who had an actual agenda. On day3 you guys didn't see who bandwagoned, because I will bet most of you didn't go back to reread. Look at the immediate aftermath of hyshes basically giving up. Players who immediately voted him without even thinking about it (despite saying they would) were bunneh, xsksc. Both scum. Players like Chocolate, Zanfada, and you looked much more town because you tried getting info out of hyshes before voting him. You also provided good reasons for that. HoD made a pretty good case on hyshes and so he came out of that looking more town as well. HoD's only problem was that he was tied very closely to ciryandor, so while I had xsksc+bunneh joined at the hip there were times during which I couldn't tell whether ciryandor or HoD was the real scum. I actually flopped a couple times on that. Look at this post: Show nested quote +On October 31 2011 00:53 Drem903 wrote: The thing with xsksc was pretty much just a joke to try and get the ball rolling. The only person that has really garnered any suspicion from me is bunneh, and that's only because his posts seem to be "posts for the sake of posting" rather than trying to really get anything dones.
He only seems to post to try and appear active. Perfect summary of what bunneh's day1 posting was. Why would townies just want to post just to post? Townies want to contribute. Bunneh was just posting to fly under the radar. He took it kind of badly, too, responding with this: Show nested quote +On October 31 2011 01:22 IMABUNNEH wrote: I'm not entirely sure what "posting for the sake of posting" is defined at, but its not like there was anything MUCH to poke at prior to my posts.
Either toads or risk.nuke definately look a bit dodgy. Both of the posts struck me as quite aggressive in turning it into finger pointing. I don't think getting all up in peoples' grills immediately is what we want. It's just going to get innocent people on the defensive from the start.
Drem has so far poked at someone randomly as a "joke" and then at myself for not getting immediately aggressive. Who's next, risk.nuke for BEING aggressive? :p I don't think finger pointing every 6 posts at a different person is going to help us.
I doubt someone with almost no activity at this point is likely to be scum though. So even though Skrammen hasn't said anything,I'd rule him out for the time being and look at the "half-active" posters. risk.nuke and hacklebeast are both pretty aggressive in getting people to turn on someone so early. He tries to get away with "well there was nothing to talk about" but makes himself look more scummy by simply diverting attention from himself. Scum very rarely want the spotlight on themselves. They want other people to take the heat for being scummy.He then says we don't want aggressive townies. Well, you don't want 10 aggressive townies and no analysts, but you want aggressive townies who will push scummy players into posting more, and defending themselves. You don't want to be passive as town because that loses you games. Scum go inactive, and then they kill you by literally doing nothing. The rest of bunneh's post has no coherence and makes very little sense. He basically just flails around in trying to say something but doesn't actually say anything, confirming exactly what Drem was talking about. He even accuses Drem of poking a lot of other players, but most tellingly, bunneh does it himself. He calls out risk.nuke, toad, then subtly throws in suspicion of drem (on opposite grounds) and then lastly hacklebeast randomly appears. Then, he's not suspicious of an inactive player, Skrammen. Why? What does an inactive player contribute? Later the next day bunneh went on to vote Skrammen for being inactive. This should've set off alarm bells for every town player at that point. You have a player who says we shouldn't touch inactives because they're unlikely to be scum, actually voting for an inactive because he thinks the inactivity is a scum tell. Show nested quote +On November 03 2011 09:56 IMABUNNEH wrote: However, I don't like that Skrammen hasn't posted since barely surviving. He's hiding too much for me, and my suspicion of him has basically done nothing since go up since I refused to vote for him. Unless I see something compelling from him, I'm going to have to make a provisional
##Vote SKrammen
Unless he posts something worthwhile, and worth waiting for, I'm unlikely to change this despite my other suspicions. It keeps coming back to him and Toads, but at least Toad doesn't look like he's trying to hide.
That behavioral contradiction was one of the biggest tells that bunneh was scum. Bunneh was earlier suspicious of toad, and said inactive players are unlikely to be scum. Later, he continued his suspicion of toad, but, for no apparent reason, changed his mind on inactives and voted Skrammen instead. No consistency there. Then there's this: Show nested quote +On November 07 2011 10:47 IMABUNNEH wrote: I'm going to regret this, I don't have Chocolate pegged as a scum, but I guess we need a lynch.
##unvote Toadesstern
##vote Chocolate Townies don't do this without putting up a tantrum. At no point did bunneh EVER defend chocolate. In fact, earlier in the day he actually considered him as a possibility for scum. If he really believed Chocolate was a townie he would've worked to stop the lynch from gaining ground. I can't remember for the life of me what I saw that connected xsksc and bunneh, but basically they were connected 100%. This is just an example of what made xsksc scum. Ciryandor was scum to me primarily because everyone thought he was town and he didn't die night 1 or night 2. That's pretty strange. He also said a lot of things that jumped out to me. I can go look for these things if anyone actually wants to see why.
for voting for my entire team: ##Vote Wherebugsgo
because i didnt get to actually get to type that in the last game we played.
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Around Day 2-3 I actually saw that myself back on Day 1. I use the excuse I didn't have a clue what I was really doing, mostly because it took me a bit of time to get the hang of how people really wanted to play the game. I think I more or less slipped by within the game (read the obs QT, I know it's different there ) after I got a footing on what people were looking for what.
I KNOW I made multiple mistakes and scumslips having read back, but I think other than that switch on Day 1, what I was saying/contributing worked within this specific game if nothing else. I get the feeling that depending on who you're playing with changes how you need to play the game.
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On November 14 2011 10:01 IMABUNNEH wrote:Around Day 2-3 I actually saw that myself back on Day 1. I use the excuse I didn't have a clue what I was really doing, mostly because it took me a bit of time to get the hang of how people really wanted to play the game. I think I more or less slipped by within the game (read the obs QT, I know it's different there ) after I got a footing on what people were looking for what. I KNOW I made multiple mistakes and scumslips having read back, but I think other than that switch on Day 1, what I was saying/contributing worked within this specific game if nothing else. I get the feeling that depending on who you're playing with changes how you need to play the game.
this is true, but generally there are things that scum tend to do simply because they have an agenda. Likewise, there are things that town tend to do too.
Good scum often don't follow known patterns, but not very many people on TL make good scum, so it's good to know. Things worked in this game for scum, IMO, because town didn't know what to look for, town didn't read, and town was inactive. In such situations scum can do whatever they want because they are never under any serious threat.
On November 14 2011 10:00 GreYMisT wrote:Show nested quote +On November 14 2011 09:53 wherebugsgo wrote:Toad you overthought things a lot. In particular was that post where you just randomly listed all the possible alignment combinations of you and Skrammen. That just led town on a loop because it was completely off-base. When you do something like that, you invite scum to come in and manipulate. Then, town will lynch one of you. When one of you flips town they're predisposed to lynching the other the next day. It might not be logically correct, but simply the fact that you created a dichotomy between yourself and the other guy means that mafia will use that opportunity to force two really easy mislynches. The two of you are already scummy, you're both town, why not forge a false dichotomy and then kill both of you? Notice this post: On November 02 2011 06:18 xsksc wrote:On November 02 2011 00:48 Toadesstern wrote: got home from university now and yeah let's get a little analysis what happened last day.
Let's just pretend we don't know a thing. In that scernario everything's possible. I could be green, I could be red, Skrammen could be green and Skrammen could be red. Same with Zanfa and risk but I'm going to talk about Skrammen and me since the two of us are the main subjects in this thread right now.
1) Both red Let's start with the easy one and pretend both Skrammen and I am red. In that case the two of us are stupid and I'm blaming him to be mafia while he is blaming me to be mafia. I know we're not really blameing each other but I did vote for him so I guess that counts, too. That does not sound like a good plan for mafia imo.
2) Both green Next possibilty: We're both green. If that turns out to be true towns horribly fucked. Not because of the fact that both of us are green but since we didn't even get a majority on a green while mafia is probably even helping us or at least spreading their votes and therefore we might have 1 or 2 mafias on Skrammen as well. And still we don't get a majority. If that's true we got a major problem because we're not going to get a lynch anytime soon (= free kill for mafia without having the chance to kill a mafia or at least get GRANTED information). => pretty much everyone could be mafia because they're able to vote whoever they want without having to manipulate votes at least a bit.
3) Skrammen green, I'm red In that case town got a heavy problem as well. Skrammen was closest for having a majority and it's pretty much the same as the second possibility: I'm mafia and I went for a wagon issued by someone else and still town hasn't got a majority. That would mean that out of those 6 votes probably 2 or 3 votes are issued by mafias (my vote at least + maybe my buddies) while 3 townies voted for Skrammen, 3 voted for me, 2 voted for Zanfa and 1 voted for Chocolate. That's not exactly what you want to do as town, no matter what.
4) I'm green, Skrammen is red In that situation mafia is probably not going to vote for skrammen in the first place. They want to safe their buddy as long as it's possible without leaking information of who actually is mafia out of votingbehaviors right before the deadline. Also this would mean we got at most 1 mafia voting for Skrammen (that is if they got balls). I doubt they got the balls to put their mafia buddy on a 6-votes position themselves, just to make those other 2 mafias really hidden. There could always be a hero votechange 1h before the deadline which would have made a lynch. So in that scenario we probably got about 5 townies voting for Skrammen, maybe it's even 6, while mafia is trying to get us on someone else. Therefore they got either 2 votes on me, 1 vote on me + 1 vote on zanfa or 2 votes on zanfa (the third one is Skrammens vote on choc), while 3 townies did not choose to vote for Skrammen.
For me it's kind of clear. I can rule out possibilty 1 (let's face it, noone's that stupid). I think 3 is pretty unlikely. I just think town should be able to get more than 3 votes on a single person without mafia therefore I think there's no mafia votes on Skrammen. If there are we're really fucked. 2 and 4 could be possible in my opinion. Having 5 or 6 townies able to focus their votes on 1 single person while 3 are not sure what to do sounds reasonable for me (compare with example 3: I don't think we got only 3 people being able to focus their votes while the rest is spreading their votes for whatever reason). Therefore I'd say its 4 > 2 > 3 > 1
I'm still not saying I think Skrammen's 100% sure red, and if he's green than risk is green as well. But I think it's a better explanation than the two of us being green or 'me red + Skrammen green' or both red. #1 Is pretty unlikely imo. #2 Is a possibility, I think at least one of you is scum though, I'd be very surprised if this was the case, and we're fucked if it is. #3 I was very suspicious of you early on, but I ended up voting skarmmen because his later posts seemed really dodgy, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if you were scum. #4 At the moment I'm trying to figure out which of you two is more likely to be town, because that would almost certainly make the other scum. However this is probably the most likely of the 4 options in my eyes. Does exactly that. You say that you think Skrammen is mafia (and so you must be town obviously) and the majority opinion in the thread (albeit very heavily scum-influenced) was the same as yours. The problem is that people swallowed that really easily. When a lot of people think someone is scum, and that person easily gets votes, either the scum is super bad, or chances are it's just a townie getting bandwagoned. In this case xsksc did the easy thing and he just agreed with you, cementing the notion that you are opposite alignments. As for hyshes, I have no idea what he was doing, but when someone starts doing dumb stuff or overall doesn't care about getting lynched (particularly as a new player) chances are very strong that they are simply bored townies. I really don't know why hyshes played like he did, and no doubt it was very detrimental to town, but by all means you guys needed to ignore the distraction and focus on the people who had an actual agenda. On day3 you guys didn't see who bandwagoned, because I will bet most of you didn't go back to reread. Look at the immediate aftermath of hyshes basically giving up. Players who immediately voted him without even thinking about it (despite saying they would) were bunneh, xsksc. Both scum. Players like Chocolate, Zanfada, and you looked much more town because you tried getting info out of hyshes before voting him. You also provided good reasons for that. HoD made a pretty good case on hyshes and so he came out of that looking more town as well. HoD's only problem was that he was tied very closely to ciryandor, so while I had xsksc+bunneh joined at the hip there were times during which I couldn't tell whether ciryandor or HoD was the real scum. I actually flopped a couple times on that. Look at this post: On October 31 2011 00:53 Drem903 wrote: The thing with xsksc was pretty much just a joke to try and get the ball rolling. The only person that has really garnered any suspicion from me is bunneh, and that's only because his posts seem to be "posts for the sake of posting" rather than trying to really get anything dones.
He only seems to post to try and appear active. Perfect summary of what bunneh's day1 posting was. Why would townies just want to post just to post? Townies want to contribute. Bunneh was just posting to fly under the radar. He took it kind of badly, too, responding with this: On October 31 2011 01:22 IMABUNNEH wrote: I'm not entirely sure what "posting for the sake of posting" is defined at, but its not like there was anything MUCH to poke at prior to my posts.
Either toads or risk.nuke definately look a bit dodgy. Both of the posts struck me as quite aggressive in turning it into finger pointing. I don't think getting all up in peoples' grills immediately is what we want. It's just going to get innocent people on the defensive from the start.
Drem has so far poked at someone randomly as a "joke" and then at myself for not getting immediately aggressive. Who's next, risk.nuke for BEING aggressive? :p I don't think finger pointing every 6 posts at a different person is going to help us.
I doubt someone with almost no activity at this point is likely to be scum though. So even though Skrammen hasn't said anything,I'd rule him out for the time being and look at the "half-active" posters. risk.nuke and hacklebeast are both pretty aggressive in getting people to turn on someone so early. He tries to get away with "well there was nothing to talk about" but makes himself look more scummy by simply diverting attention from himself. Scum very rarely want the spotlight on themselves. They want other people to take the heat for being scummy.He then says we don't want aggressive townies. Well, you don't want 10 aggressive townies and no analysts, but you want aggressive townies who will push scummy players into posting more, and defending themselves. You don't want to be passive as town because that loses you games. Scum go inactive, and then they kill you by literally doing nothing. The rest of bunneh's post has no coherence and makes very little sense. He basically just flails around in trying to say something but doesn't actually say anything, confirming exactly what Drem was talking about. He even accuses Drem of poking a lot of other players, but most tellingly, bunneh does it himself. He calls out risk.nuke, toad, then subtly throws in suspicion of drem (on opposite grounds) and then lastly hacklebeast randomly appears. Then, he's not suspicious of an inactive player, Skrammen. Why? What does an inactive player contribute? Later the next day bunneh went on to vote Skrammen for being inactive. This should've set off alarm bells for every town player at that point. You have a player who says we shouldn't touch inactives because they're unlikely to be scum, actually voting for an inactive because he thinks the inactivity is a scum tell. On November 03 2011 09:56 IMABUNNEH wrote: However, I don't like that Skrammen hasn't posted since barely surviving. He's hiding too much for me, and my suspicion of him has basically done nothing since go up since I refused to vote for him. Unless I see something compelling from him, I'm going to have to make a provisional
##Vote SKrammen
Unless he posts something worthwhile, and worth waiting for, I'm unlikely to change this despite my other suspicions. It keeps coming back to him and Toads, but at least Toad doesn't look like he's trying to hide.
That behavioral contradiction was one of the biggest tells that bunneh was scum. Bunneh was earlier suspicious of toad, and said inactive players are unlikely to be scum. Later, he continued his suspicion of toad, but, for no apparent reason, changed his mind on inactives and voted Skrammen instead. No consistency there. Then there's this: On November 07 2011 10:47 IMABUNNEH wrote: I'm going to regret this, I don't have Chocolate pegged as a scum, but I guess we need a lynch.
##unvote Toadesstern
##vote Chocolate Townies don't do this without putting up a tantrum. At no point did bunneh EVER defend chocolate. In fact, earlier in the day he actually considered him as a possibility for scum. If he really believed Chocolate was a townie he would've worked to stop the lynch from gaining ground. I can't remember for the life of me what I saw that connected xsksc and bunneh, but basically they were connected 100%. This is just an example of what made xsksc scum. Ciryandor was scum to me primarily because everyone thought he was town and he didn't die night 1 or night 2. That's pretty strange. He also said a lot of things that jumped out to me. I can go look for these things if anyone actually wants to see why. for voting for my entire team: ##Vote Wherebugsgobecause i didnt get to actually get to type that in the last game we played.
Parity cop OP man
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On November 14 2011 09:53 wherebugsgo wrote:
Look at the immediate aftermath of hyshes basically giving up. Players who immediately voted him without even thinking about it (despite saying they would) were bunneh, xsksc. Both scum. Players like Chocolate, Zanfada, and you looked much more town because you tried getting info out of hyshes before voting him. You also provided good reasons for that. HoD made a pretty good case on hyshes and so he came out of that looking more town as well. HoD's only problem was that he was tied very closely to ciryandor, so while I had xsksc+bunneh joined at the hip there were times during which I couldn't tell whether ciryandor or HoD was the real scum. I actually flopped a couple times on that.
Ciryandor was scum to me primarily because everyone thought he was town and he didn't die night 1 or night 2. That's pretty strange. He also said a lot of things that jumped out to me. I can go look for these things if anyone actually wants to see why.
Go, I want to polish up my town and scum game so it becomes more neutral; will help a lot with seeing what subtle tells I was dropping; and if I could make them when speaking as scum more town-like.
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Also, I'd like to see what kind of analysis I should be throwing out as town given the lack of extra information that I would have had as scum. My weakness has been pressuring and analysis as town when there are multiple unknown factors like scum.
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On November 14 2011 13:50 Ciryandor wrote:Show nested quote +On November 14 2011 09:53 wherebugsgo wrote:
Look at the immediate aftermath of hyshes basically giving up. Players who immediately voted him without even thinking about it (despite saying they would) were bunneh, xsksc. Both scum. Players like Chocolate, Zanfada, and you looked much more town because you tried getting info out of hyshes before voting him. You also provided good reasons for that. HoD made a pretty good case on hyshes and so he came out of that looking more town as well. HoD's only problem was that he was tied very closely to ciryandor, so while I had xsksc+bunneh joined at the hip there were times during which I couldn't tell whether ciryandor or HoD was the real scum. I actually flopped a couple times on that.
Ciryandor was scum to me primarily because everyone thought he was town and he didn't die night 1 or night 2. That's pretty strange. He also said a lot of things that jumped out to me. I can go look for these things if anyone actually wants to see why. Go, I want to polish up my town and scum game so it becomes more neutral; will help a lot with seeing what subtle tells I was dropping; and if I could make them when speaking as scum more town-like.
The thing that tipped me off on day 2 after the flip was that risk called you out on your bad logic and poor case on Skrammen, then pointed out how people were sheeping you, then he died instead of you dying.
Then, what was funny was that you had a really hilarious reaction to risk's death. It went something like, "if I were scum I'd never shoot risk! I expected to be shot!" but no one noticed that so you got away with it. Townies are very rarely in a position to speculate about scumkills. You don't want to speculate about why they would kill someone so quickly after the night post. If you're going to speculate, you need to provide evidence. A townie could've potentially said, well it was possible risk.nuke got shot because he was active and pressuring actual scum. In that case, they would go back and look at who risk was pressuring. That didn't happen, of course.
Then, the fact that you pursued the motivation for risk's death was even weirder. It made it sound like you had knowledge of the situation (i.e., you were scum)
Another thing that was apparent is that every time you posted a case, you left "outs." Your cases were halfhearted and every single time they had no decisiveness behind them. At no point did it seem like you truly believed your target was scum. When you posted your case on drem you used a mistake (one that townies could easily make) that he thought there were 4 scum. Any competent townie should know that scum wouldn't make such a mistake. Why would scum bring attention to themselves like that?
You lucked out hard because hyshes basically screwed himself. He had you as one scum but he didn't do anything. Correct read on 1/3 of the mafia and no effort=dead townie.
Then I almost died laughing on day 3 or whenever it was where you just utterly destroyed the thread with 10 massive posts in a row that just focused post by post on almost everyone in the game. That was so incredibly distracting, I give you props for that. You basically lured the rest of the townies into believing you were innocent on the sheer amount of effort you put into writing that. I mean come on, what scum would do that, right?
If they actually had the will to read about 1 or 2 of those post by post series they would see that most it was a gigantic mass of fluff. What on earth is the purpose of copying everyone's filter and then putting your own play-by-play to it, as town? It's a huge distraction; town wants relevant information to find scum, not fluff on everyone who is left alive. In future games, you should keep this in mind; if you do something like that you'll probably still dupe bad townies, but good ones will know that you're basically just destroying the thread.
The last thing that I remember off the top of my head is that you made connections between players without providing reasons. You connected bunneh's and toad's alignment at one point, for no reason at all. No one called you out on it and I didn't understand where it came from. It certainly seemed like you were trying to cover up your scumbuddies.
In addition every time you posted reads xsksc would come third, with two scummy townies before him. The two scummy townies would always change, but xsksc would always be third. That, again, seemed like you were constantly giving yourself outs. Don't do that so obviously.
EDIT:
On November 14 2011 13:53 Ciryandor wrote: Also, I'd like to see what kind of analysis I should be throwing out as town given the lack of extra information that I would have had as scum. My weakness has been pressuring and analysis as town when there are multiple unknown factors like scum.
A lot of the stuff, I covered above. Basically, if you ever see someone do those things that I pointed out you were doing, call them out on it. Pressure them and figure out why. Determine motivations.
For me I love asking people questions and getting reactions out of them. A lot of the time people will post things with no reasoning, or bad reasoning. If you call them out, their subsequent reactions will often tell you whether they are scum just making stuff up or townies who are lazy or whatever.
Unbased assumptions are often a good place to start. Why are players X and Y connected? Why does Z HAVE to be true?
Contradictions are also good. Imagine someone says player X is scum because he's inactive, but doesn't mention inactive player Y. You ask this guy why he hasn't mentioned player Y. When pointed out with townies, they'll usually go back and reread, and then mention that player, or provide good reasoning as to why they think player Y isn't scum. Scum will sometimes try to wiggle out of answering the question, usually providing a non-answer or attacking you instead for "defending" player X. They might even say that the player is scummy, but will keep insisting that the original target is better for arbitrary, unquantifiable reasons. You need to be suspicious of this.
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On November 14 2011 10:07 wherebugsgo wrote: Good scum often don't follow known patterns, but not very many people on TL make good scum, so it's good to know. Things worked in this game for scum, IMO, because town didn't know what to look for, town didn't read, and town was inactive. In such situations scum can do whatever they want because they are never under any serious threat.
Yeah as mentioned, after hyshes flipped green I really was shocked and I don't think I was the only one. I didn't know what to look for anymore and hod wasn't exactly motivated himself while the rest of our group was a little active but noone took over
Edit: Also get TL Mafia XLVI started guys
Edit2: On November 14 2011 14:26 wherebugsgo wrote:
Then I almost died laughing on day 3 or whenever it was where you just utterly destroyed the thread with 10 massive posts in a row that just focused post by post on almost everyone in the game. That was so incredibly distracting, I give you props for that. You basically lured the rest of the townies into believing you were innocent on the sheer amount of effort you put into writing that. I mean come on, what scum would do that, right?
If they actually had the will to read about 1 or 2 of those post by post series they would see that most it was a gigantic mass of fluff. What on earth is the purpose of copying everyone's filter and then putting your own play-by-play to it, as town? It's a huge distraction; town wants relevant information to find scum, not fluff on everyone who is left alive. In future games, you should keep this in mind; if you do something like that you'll probably still dupe bad townies, but good ones will know that you're basically just destroying the thread.
I DID read 3 or 4 of them and what you said is just exactly what I thought. It's a shitload of text and yeah, he put a lot effort in it but there was just nothing special. A list of everything a person posted (that is everything interesting in cyris opinion) and that's about it. No actual analysis, just that huge wall of text, no conclusions (well a bunch, but no "big" conclusion to finish it or whatever). That's why I thought building a case on one or maybe two people is way better and kept it that way to finish it off with a nice concluion but the way cyri did it was just way too much :D The ratio of information per post was just incredible off. No way someone could have possible got all this stuff in his brain to make decicion based on ALL this afterwards. Got me thinking but again, at that point I thought it's either cyri=blue+skrammen=red or skrammen=blue+cyri=red and lynching cyri or even pressuring cyri wasn't an option for me (I thought) since attacking someone who's pretty much confirmed townie by most people isn't a usefull talent toi have for a guy who just ninja-dodged a lynch. The ironie behind all this: I think I was the guy who started that green read on cyri saying on day1 it totally looks like what cyri did last game and he's helping town day1. Day2 and Day3 he was falling in my lists but noone said a thing
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Ciryandor was never on my town list.
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On November 15 2011 00:04 hyshes wrote: Ciryandor was never on my town list. It isn't what you believe, but what you can make others believe that matters in a game of mafia.
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On November 15 2011 00:21 GreYMisT wrote:It isn't what you believe, but what you can make others believe that matters in a game of mafia.
Bugs especially loves that sentence!
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On November 15 2011 00:21 GreYMisT wrote:It isn't what you believe, but what you can make others believe that matters in a game of mafia. Doesn't matter, got lynched bro.
On a more serious note, imploding like you did on Day 2 and not making any effort to try and actually get attention on someone else when you got pressured? That was very poor form. Look at what happened to Toad. He got shot when it became apparent to us he was more of a liability to scum alive than dead; and all it took was a vigorous defense and a lot of contribution to town. If you had done that, people would have still suspected you and Toad, and HoD would have never gained his prominence in town discussion, but I would have never had the same level of townie cred as well. 3 townies and 1 scum being active and pushing each other is much harder to co-opt than 1 townie and 1 scum.
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On November 15 2011 00:04 hyshes wrote: Ciryandor was never on my town list.
Doesn't matter man, you could have all the scum and no one would care if you can't convince the other townies that.
Giving up and letting yourself die because people aren't listening isn't a good way to actually make them listen to you posthumously. You'll just end up with a boatload of "wtf" reactions and then no one will bother looking at your posts again because it'll be concluded that you didn't know what you were doing.
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Also if you guys aren't playing in Radfield's Mini X, you should check it out. Couples Therapy as well. Often watching other people play gives you new ideas and thoughts. Ask the host for the observer QT if there is one.
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yeah saw it yesterday and wanted to /in but it was already full Would have loved to play a normal minie, except for the part that it's only 9 instead of 12 I guess. Next game will be a normal ( = big) game for me. Hopefully it'll start soon and I really have to post less in mafia games or I'll have a hard time once I AM mafia :p
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Why is posting less necessary?
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On November 15 2011 00:04 hyshes wrote: Ciryandor was never on my town list. But the only person you made any real argument for being scum was Toad
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On November 15 2011 05:28 wherebugsgo wrote: Why is posting less necessary? I figured I was posting a bit too much the moment I read that wall of text from cyri :p Should have sticked to more concentrated information instead of those wall of texts
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