|
On November 10 2011 04:06 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:@Ciry I don't know how new of a suspect you want to consider xsksc. I wanted him dead yesterday (game time, not real days) too. Also, as for Zanfada's statements which you are considered about, I am basically considering everything going on now as WIFOM and relying on information from our last lynch and earlier to make most decisions. Show nested quote +To be fair, and it was brought up before, it's not like anyone has really put pressure on me either. Yeah, it was brought up by me. I am not 100% sold on it yet, but the most logically consistent scum team for me is: Bunneh, xsksc, Sermokala. So, the three of you, the only defense I will accept is an alternate scum team of 3, with an explanation of why it is plausible. Ciry, do you have any alternative scum team possibilities? The only other way I can make one is if they were willing to bus Drem or Skrammen. Also, if we want to no lynch today, I recommend voting in pairs. That is, you vote for someone, and they vote for you. Two town votes on someone would mean the three scum could last minute switch and cause a mislynch and then win with their night shot. That being said, I am also willing to take a chance at lynching the shit out of someone rather than prolonging things. :-D
I'm still very much willing to accept that either Drem OR Skrammen could have been thrown out to let the town get distracted and paranoid with them, but given that you've shown how xsksc has just been doing filler; and if someone filters him you can definitely get that feeling as well, I think there's something of a case on him.
As it stands, my read on scum team possibilities:
With a Drem OR Skrammen bus:
Drem/Skrammen
xsksc
sermo (Bunneh is plausible here, BUT sermo feels scummier to my read versus Bunneh) [his push and reaction to Toad flipping green feel... forced]
Without a Drem/Skrammen bus:
Sermo
xsksc
Bunneh
Skrammen/Zanfada, either of you get those Drem votes off as per HoD's suggestion.
## Vote Zanfada
To follow policy.
|
On November 10 2011 09:46 IMABUNNEH wrote:Show nested quote +On November 10 2011 07:52 Drem903 wrote:
##unvote Skrammen
##vote IMAbunneh
no hard feelings. Going to accept HoD's wisdom and try to avoid a mislynch. I'll catch up with a full post on proposed scum when I haven't just got home from the pub. In the meantime it looks like we're going for a no-lynch? I'm going to stick with the plan and trust you guys know what you're doing (I don't fully understand what's going on RIGHT now, curses be to a few pints), but I need to vote for who voted for me right? Correct me if I'm wrong and I'll swap my vote to what's needed.
#unvote SKrammen
##vote Drem903
No no, you're doing it wrong. Drem already has a vote on him, go get a vote on xsksc. I don't think he's received a vote yet,
|
Goddamnit I hope we aren't screwed over this night.
|
On November 10 2011 15:13 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:@Ciry How could we be any more screwed than we already are? Either we will go down to 4v3 and it will be lylo, or stay at 5v3 and it will remain mylo. Either way we need every lynch to be right. I'm getting a bit worried that Sermokala might be hyshes 2.0 :-/ I also couldn't help but notice that only Bunneh seems to care to address this post of mine: Show nested quote +I am not 100% sold on it yet, but the most logically consistent scum team for me is: Bunneh, xsksc, Sermokala.
So, the three of you, the only defense I will accept is an alternate scum team of 3, with an explanation of why it is plausible.
We can be more screwed if it turns out that scum get a shot off that kills the Medic. At this stage of the game, they'll care more about killing him than offing us two, because it's lylo and they'll want to prevent the town from getting one more day with which to actually get information. We've gained half a day and vital information on Skrammen with the no-lynch; and there's no use for them in trying to off us IMO because of the risk of medic protects setting them back even more (if one of us gets targeted by a save and they hit the same person, we can use a no-lynch strategy once again if it becomes necessary; and also gain a good chance of eliminating another null-tell player if they play this thing wrong).
|
As for Bunneh's post, it's interesting, to say the least, that the other two people haven't responded at all, and that at least one of them has been present and active.
|
Phew. At least we still have the Medic up and alive. HoD, crunch time for us. We have to discuss who's either a suspiciously bad townie or a stealthy scum.
A lot of posts say either xsksc or Sermokala. Sermo's been acting defeatist... while xsksc has been evasive with his answers of scumminess. With respect to Skrammen... well all we know is that if Skrammen's scum, then at least one of his team-mates was willing to bus him, if only for town cred. Drem has been that guy who's either been suspected by people or not suspected, there have been many tells about him, but I cannot place whether they're noob scum or noob town.
To the Medic:
UNLESS you are the one on the lynch block, do NOT state your role. It would be the end of us if we end up with a no-lynch and you revealed for scum to kill.
|
Well, HoD, wouldn't having him claim = getting him killed tonight, especially if scum counter with a fake-claim?
|
Goddamn. You posted while I was composing that reply, and it's genius. Give me some time to break it down for town what scenarios could happen.
|
On November 11 2011 13:06 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:
...? We aren't no-lynching here Ciry. If that happens we lose anyway...they shoot someone who is not me or you, they have 50% on the medic, 50% on the guy that the medic is probably going to protect 0% of the time.
I was emphasizing that we CANNOT no-lynch, and what I was saying was that we cannot afford to mis-lynch. Sorry for the confusion, saw your post and was digesting it.
|
Ok here's what happens:
To HoD:
Medic Claims and Scum Fake-Claim (Best solution IMO for them)
2/3 chance of hitting a scum amongst the 3 unknowns (at 4/3)
If we lynch scum (4/2), Medic could get shot or NOT get shot (i.e. Scum takes chances with you or me)
If they shoot Medic (3/2) we can bus fake-claimer (3/1) then they have to shoot one of you or me.
This will have them 1 confirmed townie (You or Me), 1 unconfirmed townie, AND 1 Scum
If they don't shoot medic but shoot 1 of us:
If success (You or Me dies 3/2): We have Medic + You/Me and 1 scum fake claimant, + 1 townie and 1 scum
If fail (You or me survive 4/2): We have Medic + You AND Me, 1 scum fake claimant, 1 townie and 1 scum
Medic Claims and Scum DO NOT Fake-Claim
3/4 chance of getting scum amongst 4 unknowns (at 4/3)
If we lynch scum (4/2), Medic WILL get shot... (3/2)
2 confirmed townies, 1 unknown townie and 2 hidden scum.
|
You have the better plan HoD, I wanted to have the medic hide today so we can do the Skrammen tactic again (force people to vote, run them up, if they run up the medic, that exposes the medic and filters out who's definitely scum; if they don't run up the medic, they're forced to bus a townie or one of their own)
|
On November 11 2011 13:21 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:
Also, those probabilities are only if we are completely guessing, which I hope we can do better than :-P
Maybe we can do a hybrid of your plan and mine, with us forcing people to cast early votes, then have the Medic pop up later in the day to show where scum could potentially have been hiding their votes... Wouldn't that make it more difficult for them to actually make any moves to mislynch?
|
So, the question is that of a target.
Sermokala and xsksc are as good as any right now.
I'll pick Sermokala.
## Vote Sermokala
|
On November 11 2011 13:32 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:
That being said, I want to get voting going ASAP so we can make sure we get everyone on it. At this point I think scum are pretty aware that not agreeing with a lynch supported by both me and you is suicide, so as long as we leave enough time to switch to anyone refusing to join us we should be good.
If you think Sermokala is a bad idea (even if half the town think he's scummy), then just say it. I'm perfectly willing to get behind someone else.
|
On November 11 2011 19:38 Skrammen wrote:
I've been trying to lay low this game, and there are probably a lot of the more experienced players lurking this thread who is facepalming at that, because it hasnt worked all that well.
But since I am already taking a risk and probably next in line for a nightkill now, should I tell you who is confirmed townie? He would probably die next night then I guess.
I'll look at your answers once I get home from the hospital this afternoon.
I don't know what to say to who you saved on Night 2. If it was me or HoD, then the double confirm would force scum to kill you after this lynch THEN target that person the next night. That will make it easier because we'll be left with at least one confirmed remaining townie (and that puts the onus on them to determine who's scum XD). You can redeem yourself for not doing a better job of coming off as townie and do your analysis while you're still alive. I am not sure whether it's good to reveal your save attempt list, just because scum will definitely get more info out of that.
|
GG (can't re anymore :p) I'm surprised nobody doubted me when I was scrambling all over on the last two days.
|
On November 14 2011 09:53 wherebugsgo wrote:
Look at the immediate aftermath of hyshes basically giving up. Players who immediately voted him without even thinking about it (despite saying they would) were bunneh, xsksc. Both scum. Players like Chocolate, Zanfada, and you looked much more town because you tried getting info out of hyshes before voting him. You also provided good reasons for that. HoD made a pretty good case on hyshes and so he came out of that looking more town as well. HoD's only problem was that he was tied very closely to ciryandor, so while I had xsksc+bunneh joined at the hip there were times during which I couldn't tell whether ciryandor or HoD was the real scum. I actually flopped a couple times on that.
Ciryandor was scum to me primarily because everyone thought he was town and he didn't die night 1 or night 2. That's pretty strange. He also said a lot of things that jumped out to me. I can go look for these things if anyone actually wants to see why.
Go, I want to polish up my town and scum game so it becomes more neutral; will help a lot with seeing what subtle tells I was dropping; and if I could make them when speaking as scum more town-like.
|
Also, I'd like to see what kind of analysis I should be throwing out as town given the lack of extra information that I would have had as scum. My weakness has been pressuring and analysis as town when there are multiple unknown factors like scum.
|
On November 15 2011 00:21 GreYMisT wrote:It isn't what you believe, but what you can make others believe that matters in a game of mafia.
Doesn't matter, got lynched bro. 
On a more serious note, imploding like you did on Day 2 and not making any effort to try and actually get attention on someone else when you got pressured? That was very poor form. Look at what happened to Toad. He got shot when it became apparent to us he was more of a liability to scum alive than dead; and all it took was a vigorous defense and a lot of contribution to town. If you had done that, people would have still suspected you and Toad, and HoD would have never gained his prominence in town discussion, but I would have never had the same level of townie cred as well. 3 townies and 1 scum being active and pushing each other is much harder to co-opt than 1 townie and 1 scum.
|
Wall of text works in certain contexts. If you do a wall for a PBP of a potential scum or two and make an iron-clad case, it can make or break games. It just has to be compelling enough for people to actually read and think about it.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
