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On November 07 2011 10:08 Chocolate wrote:
K guys good reasoning you have this in the bag.
Harb better be quick. If you all lynch me for no reason I will be pretty angry. But, we will also have a good idea of who could be mafia. Over all though the lack of any reasoning from 2 people is suspicious.
There's some reason for it; as I've read your day 1 activity and later on, you're quite a null-tell, as you haven't been really connected to anyone else for most of the game. You haven't attacked nor defended people actively as much as others. A null-tell is one of the few things this town has to avoid now.
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## Vote Chocolate
Well, we need two votes on this one, but I'm suspicious as fuck on the jumpers being Skrammen and Drem. I can still change my vote to force a lynch because it's morning here and I'm going to an SC2 tourney later after the deadline clears.
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1 more person if people want a Chocolate lynch and HoD gets back to change his vote.
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On November 07 2011 11:16 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:
Holy fuck looking at the list of jumpers makes this look bad, but something tells me we don't have time for another switch, please let this be a mafia bussing after seeing the resistance to the Toad voting *crosses fingers*
This is what I was talking about man, if this ends up being a green flip, we are so damn screwed.
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On November 07 2011 11:31 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:
You should have started a case along with a vote on someone when you were doing all your PbP's earlier, you have plenty of town-cred too you know! Wasn't aware me not being able to make a big case would put us in such a last-minute bind >.>
Also, lol @skrammen starting the shift when he was one of the two I mentioned as people that I was willing to lynch that seemed lynchable. I wonder if we could have gone for sermokala...I kinda wanted to give him a chance to compensate for hackle's complete lack of contribution, but so far his main contributions have been poorly argued at best. And you know, accusing me isn't going to win any points in my book either :-P
I actually expected people to pick up a Skrammen case; which I actually called for someone else to do when I posted that thing, he's been dodgy at the least, but I'm really torn between him and Drem on who has the scummier play.  Sorry man, that three hours seems to have been wasted as nobody really wanted to pick up on the PBP's analysis and nitpick on them.
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On November 07 2011 11:48 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:
This is all assuming no more gosu-medic and if we fucked up this lynch: 8 remain, 5 town, takes all town votes to lynch if scum won't join. At that point every day is mislynch = lose, and we get one day of no-lynch if we so chose, but then every day after that one is lynch scum or lose. Activity is key, and we have a lot of people lacking in it. Even those that are active tend to post a lot of filler unless specific requests are made. Not a good town environment.
I'm also praying for a good medic save, but... wait I think I fucked it up for you as well. You were pushing for Drem right? I was suspicious as fuck of him as you saw in the PBP, but wanted to have a read on Skrammen before I decided who we needed to lynch. Would we have gotten 6 on him if I voted for him?
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On November 07 2011 12:36 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:
You would have been vote number 5, so as long as we could have gotten one more we would have lynched Drem. I wasn't pushing him too hard, but was certainly willing to lynch him (as evidenced by my vote on him).
What are your thoughts on Zanfada, Bunneh, xsksc, and Sermokala? Any of them you would like to see lynched?
Sermokala/hacklebeast is certainly a null-read, and the push on Toad was a bit iffy in my view. Toad was looking like he was going to get lynched for 2/3 days and was an easy push, however I'm not sure of any of this being indicative of his allegiance, just not enough information at all.
Bunneh certainly has contributed his bit on pushing people, but has never been the one to directly build proof on them, with this I'm thinking he's likely to be town.
xsksc and Zanfada are harder to read, as they have both not had as much of a presence. Zanfada has had pressure on him for his Day 1 activity, but this has since faded off; and he has been contributing more than he has in his last game with me. That is a positive, but being less active than the average is still not good, with just over 1 page of posts.
xsksc has had some pressure on him from you lately for being inactive or having filler posts, and my Day 1 PBP bears this out; however he does seem to hold the strong opinion that whoever flips green in Skrammen/Toad in death will have the other being red. Also we can note that did have that burst of activity castigating hyshes late in Day 2, and starting Day 3 by responding to your prompting to his views of Chocolate (green). He did vote for Drem when he made that same post to put pressure, and only changed to Chocolate because we needed to ensure a proper lynch.
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On November 07 2011 16:23 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:Doing a bit of re-reading, and yeah, we could have gotten a drem lynch off I am pretty sure...damn :-/ I also wonder if I was wrong in not floating xsksc as an option to switch to, you had him third on your list earlier today, and I think support from the two of us may have been enough, or at the very least might have given us more information in terms of who resists such a push. Here's my rundown on everyone: Ciry - I'm just going to go ahead and consider him confirmed townie. If he is somehow scum, he can safely endgame me as the odds of something coming up to get me to vote against him are rather minimal. Toad - Nearly confirmed townie for me. At the very least he is clearly willing to follow me and Ciry in voting...so if he is scum willing to follow us and bus scum-buddies in the process, then at the very least he isn't very dangerous for now. Zanfada - Not as solid for me, but definitely leaning town. Has stirred up discussion, was not afraid to step up early with his pressure vote, play is largely consistent with how he played as town last game. Again, seems at least somewhat willing to follow me/Ciry, which means he is less dangerous, even if he is scum. Bunneh - Very slight town leaning. He has been oddly elusive in terms of receiving pressure from others though. Depending on the night kill, could easily move back out of town-leaning territory. Drem - Poor Drem. I don't have much to say on him that hasn't already been said. The most townie thing he has going for him is that nobody seems willing to defend him, and everyone seems to be fine with him ending up dead. I'm still split on whether he is scum that they are aware they might have to bus, or town. Upon reviewing his day 3 activities though...I might be willing to switch him with Bunneh in my town to scum lineup. Hmm... Sermokala - Hasn't been here very long, but still managed to need a spoiler, how about that? + Show Spoiler +Seems scummy to me, but I didn't make any push for him today as I didn't believe there was enough posted by him yet to give us any leads if he flips red, nor enough posts to make a solid case against him. These posts largely sum up my thoughts on him so far: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=278558¤tpage=26#518http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=278558¤tpage=29#577His cases made so far have been questionable to say the least. Also, wtf is this about? Is this actually supposed to be a defense of any kind? They've both scum or we're all dead we don't have a choice at this point before people get paranoid that I'm scum. First off It can't be me no mafia would go inactive He has been dropping down my list pretty fast since he first piped up. Also, mostly unrelated, but a closer rereading made me lol a little at this, said by Sermokala: I'm just more sure of toad at this point. Hes been supporting the lynching of people who arn't popular to lynch which I totally think that hes doing to distance himself from the other scums and/or trying to block lynching on the whole. When considered with this post of Chocolate's: ##Vote toadesstern
sermo's reasoning is very good
he has jumped on every bandwagon and has played a little scummy and weird the entire game - You get a spoiler! + Show Spoiler +His day 1 activities were very sketchy, and his defense questionable at best. Since then he has shaped up a good deal. Here he is talking about Hyshes. If he flips red we should pressure everyone else who did not vote for me hard, as there is likely to be scum among them. Sounds like a pretty townie thing to say, and I don't know if scum would have thought to slip it in there, considering scum knew what Hyshes's flip would be. Very minor town cred for that statement. Overall, his early scumminess with his later slight towniness has pretty much balanced out to a null read for me. Being one of 4 people without at least a slight town leaning from me does not give you great odds of being clean. Hell, even if the 3 scum are amongst the 5 I think are least townie, not very good odds of being clean. - This man also earns himself a spoiler. + Show Spoiler +My short summary from earlier: The short version of my case on him is: has contributed rather little to the discussions, has made a good number of filler type posts to appear. Votes Skrammen after calling out only Toad and Zanfada for suspicion day 1, trying to blend in? Or did he somehow have a change of heart? Loves mentioning time-zone difficulties as often as possible. Basically nobody has accused him, where any one else lurking that I have suspicion of has been called out for lurking by multiple people. It's easier to slip by if 2 other people want you to be able to slip by. Now to add to it. From him: I voted skrammen day 1 because a vote on Zanfada would have been a wasted vote in that situation. If he voted on Zanfada or on Toad, the two people he had called out earlier, he would have made them tied in votes with Skrammen. He is correct in that doing so would probably have increased the odds of a no-lynch, so I'll consider him mostly absolved here, but not entirely. I hadn't double checked the timing of his vote when I posted that. Something I found rather amusing, after I clearly poke him and indicate I have some suspicions of him by posting this: Chocolate and xsksc, I would be interested in hearing your reads on each other, as well as an explanation of the read of course.
The same goes for Skrammen and xsksc. He seems to wake the fuck up, making sure to include a pressure vote and a number of questions for Drem in his post answering them. He also posts this as the reason for his vote: You blocked the skrammen lynch day 1, without even having a good explanation? And then when I vote him, he seems appalled that I don't have a good explanation posted with it. Also, I don't think I've been lurking or posting filler. Every day so far I've kept you up to date with my FoS list, reads etc. Sure I don't spam as much as toad for example, but I'm letting you guys know what I think. He has 3 instances where he has gone in excess of 23 hours without making a post since the game has started. Interestingly, his reads have gone basically unchanged since: November 03 2011 17:40 He has only changed his number 3 scum from: 3) Hyshes or some random inactive like Hackle to: 3) Someone who's fitting in well and hasn't been thought about too much, chocolate or hackle/hackles replacement perhaps. Considering Hyshes was dead at that point, he clearly had to change it...and he changes it to nothing certain at all. I'm not claiming to be 100% on him by any means, as he is largely a null-read for me, but at a time when we are down to 8 excluding myself, I'm at least leaning town on 4, and there are 3 scum left to find...well, I think you know where I'm going with this Obviously who gets shot at a stage of the game with so few players left could change a lot of things, and posting this increases the risk of scum shooting as high up my townie list as they dare, but I want to work out as much as possible with Ciry during this night in case one of us ends up dead tomorrow. I'm not sure if scum is shooting for the medic, or taking their chances elsewhere, but at this point I think town needs to play with basically everything out in the open to have a shot at this. (Note, medic, this does not mean you should claim during the night, that'd be dumb and would get you shot) We can't risk another mislynch, so we need as much coordination as possible to avoid scum influence. So, Ciry, thoughts? Anyone else that would like to chime in is obviously welcome to, as I have definitely said at least something about everyone.
At this point, the fact that HoD's activity and the constant stream of players of casting suspicion on Toad pretty much help clear them in my eyes as townies; unless HoD has been playing a crazy game of mafia brinksmanship, I'll probably find it impossible to vote for him until an end-game occurs. Toad is nearly clear as well unless there have been scum attempts of deliberately foisting him on town as a "cleared townie"; which IMO have already occurred with the Day 1 shot on risk.
Zanfada I'd probably put a bit lower due to inactivity; but his consistency of town play and willingness to put pressure and get pressured back for it are town markers.
Bunneh has not applied pressure unlike Zanfada, but he's been posting a lot more than him, and IMO is running a risky play if he's scum of jumping around and creating pressure on people.
Drem is probably the epitome of a trapped townie who's gotten his talking ahead of his thinking, or a painfully obvious mafia bus; and it's all because of that post basically telling town to lie down and take it if they get pressured, that was just blatantly anti-town.
hackle/Sermokala is rapidly descending from a null tell to feeling scummy, because he's been too eager to jump on Toad despite him looking less and less scummy up to today.
xsksc and Skrammen have tried the inactivity excuse with time-zones, but Skrammen has been more obstructionist of the two. xsksc looks like he thinks that way simply because all of his targets have lived, and IMO the Toad focus is unwarranted, but since we're still uncertain of Drem, maybe he just feels much more strongly about a Drem kill. On Skrammen however, I could just as well interpret that as "get away from putting any attention on me if he flips one way, but keep an eye on me if he flips the other"; and if he knew Choc would flip green... Sorry just rambling on the possibilities, as it's ambiguous as fuck either way.
What I can say about getting info out in the open is that I feel that Medic and his associated save list ought to hide as much as he can amongst town for as late as possible. It will be important for him to claim as late as he possibly can, because if it ends up being a LYLO, the fewer the scum members needed to lynch and the more people he can confirm through saves, the better it will end up for town, because he can just go out and claim, point to his saves as confirmed townies, and force scum to shoot at them while town lynches the most doubtful people.
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Well, I'll be fucked. They realize bussing Toad wasn't working, so they then shoot him, judging that it's unlikely for him to be protected rather than risk a medic save if they tried shoot me or Harb.
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sermokala you have got A LOT of explaining to do after that accusation yesterday. >_>
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On November 08 2011 13:35 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:
So Ciry...should medic claim now? Would that be wise? Worst case scenario scum counter claims, they both say who they protected each night and we take a guess on which is the liar?
Can the Medic protect himself?
If the answer to this is no, then he should NOT do so. Even if we mislynch today, Medic should hide because we would still have a one person majority if he managed to protect the right person. Claiming would ensure a town loss because scum will just shoot him and win.
If the answer is Yes, then it's a calculated risk. Do you reveal and try to out-think scum or do you not reveal and force them to shoot blind?
A no-lynch is definitely out of the question in either case.
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As for counter-claiming... Scum probably would view it as an unnecessary risk for them.
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On November 08 2011 13:46 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:Show nested quote +Medic
You have the power to save lives. Once per night you can watch a player. If your target is attacked, you will block one hit aimed at them. If you make a successful save, you are notified of the save. You cannot save yourself.
Okay that means it's definitely a no reveal for him in that case.
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On November 08 2011 13:52 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:
Alternately, medic claims only if we pick him to be hung. If scum tries to use it as an out, real medic counter-claims, same situation as I mentioned above.
Or, another option, we no lynch today and see what the fuck is up after another night. Lynch or lose all day every day.
The medic can certainly do the claim if he gets lynch-targeted today, because if we do a no-lynch, a night kill tonight COULD hit the medic, and we're in deeper shit; simply because we don't have the night-save anymore, and we lose a confirmed townie. We'll need to start lynching people anyway, and IMO the less chances scum have to kill the Medic, the better it would be for us.
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On November 08 2011 14:57 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:Holy previously skimmed over post batman! Show nested quote +On November 07 2011 11:41 Skrammen wrote:
So we have 10 players remaining, if lynch goes through we'll lose 1 and if we dont get divine intervention again they will kill another 1, so that makes 8 remaining, of which 3 maybe scum, 2 if we get this right. If we have 8 players where 3 are scum, there are 4 who arent, we are 2 players down from achieveing vote majority, and if we lynch a scum, we are 1 player down from achieving vote majority? So, basically, we need a scum lynch AND divine intervention? Does that look as horribly incriminating to anyone else as it does to me?
Well, I skimmed over that post and was confused.
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@ Zanfada
Why not Skrammen? Since you find him suspicious as well, why are you voting for Drem, when town needs everyone to agree on a single lynch?
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## Vote Skrammen
I believe my reasons on Day 1 and his further obscurantism shows his scumminess.
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On November 09 2011 16:05 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:
@Zanfada
Scum are very likely to be willing to bus one at this point as well...they only need us to mislynch one out of 3 for a win...
Mislynch and have a hit that is not med-saved. If we have a med-save tonight after a mislynch this day, then we still have a one-person vote advantage over them. Also, I'm thinking of whether this move IF it were bussing one of their own is designed to ensure they get more chances to take out the medic... it's very unlikely, but plausible that they'd want to make sure their KPs don't get interrupted...I'm wondering whether Zanfada has a point with Drem because of this.
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Look at the vote list right now (people who voted are listed in order of their vote and the timestamp):
For Drem:
Zanfada (11/9 08:02)
For Skrammen:
Bunneh (11/8 21:55)
Ciry (11/9 09:42)
hackle/Sermo (11/9 11:18)
xsksc (11/9 11:31)
Drem (11/9 12:11)
Not yet voted:
HoD
Skramm
And looks like the fact that I thought that Skrammen was bad has shown he's likely to be an incompetent townie... and that's a good thing for us. Bunneh voted very early, and he has shown effort in getting his reasoning out today, but it's suspicious because of this line I'm going to go with the obvious here. SKrammen absolutely has to be scum. I don't know if anyone doesn't have him on their scum list anymore either. So an early vote to make my intentions known:. If it had been stated as "Town needs to get their voting intentions known", I would have absolutely no problem with it. If he just wanted to say that he wanted his vote clear, then it seems very unfortunately worded.
However another thing to note here is that the votes after I cast mine (note the italics) came way too close together for comfort; Zanfada's suspect: Drem was the last of the lot there. HoD's new suspect, xsksc, is the 4th guy on it, following right after sermokala's third vote.
## Unvote Skrammen
But wait a minute... I've been thinking on a post Zanfada made as Zanfada has been town-leaning in his posts and responses...
+ Show Spoiler [Stream-of-consciousness at work] +On November 09 2011 15:49 Zanfada wrote:
well this sucks, I am town and 5 people are voting for Skram, which means scum are voting for him, which means he is town. Let's assume that Zanfada isn't town, and Skrammen also isn't town, but Drem is town (but this could apply to nealy anyone else of his choice). Zanfada can say this and redirect the lynch to Drem (his target) and then just shoot somebody and pray they don't get medic-blocked. If Zanfada isn't town but Skrammen is town, he'd have shut up about it and let this lynch happen. If Zanfada is town and Skrammen isn't then the other scum COULD have voted for him to make sure the lynch goes away from him; then try to convince us that someone else IS the scum. I DO NOT LIKE THIS...
HoD and Zanfada please comment on the LAST point. I hate being put in this bind; and you're the two guys I can trust as townies to do this.
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To explain why I unvoted, I want to really think through this decision. I'm conflicted about the fact that three people jumped on him RIGHT AFTER I voted, and the people who all jumped are all in the "suspicious" end of the voting bin. As it stands, this event makes me think that there is much wisdom to HoD's drive to have a no-lynch to buy us two days worth of voting AND statements from people to determine who's scum.
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EPT
