Lord of the Rings Mafia

Step 3, avoid lynching an easy target. This is a player with a few bad posts, or some flip floppy votes, or a badly phrased 'scum slip'. Easy targets give scum great excuses to get on a bandwagon. Instead we're going to lynch someone who is fairly active, but not saying anything worthwhile. With 5 posts per cycle it means we're going to have something to go on, however likely not till the later half of Day 1. Which leads to:

On September 17 2011 10:29 chaoser wrote:
OriginalName, what do you "sorta see" about greymist?

On September 17 2011 10:58 GreYMisT wrote:


Navillus I think the following list is correct in terms of most resistant to the ring's corruption to the least resistant.
Hobbits
Wizards
Elves
Dwarves
Men

I think a townie should never give the ring away unless specific mechanics of the ring make it detrimental to hold on to (corruption possibly). Anyways to get more discussion going what do you guys think about lynching a lurker day 1 in the absence of a better target? Maybe its just me but whenever this happens it always ends badly for the town. Don't seem to get much info from them because they were lurking from the get go anyways. Thoughts on the lynch lurkers policy guys?

On September 18 2011 02:33 Drazerk wrote:
since I forgot to do it before I left

##unvote:
##vote: wherebugsgo

On September 18 2011 02:14 Drazerk wrote:
Posting restrictions are definitely in place.

As for me jumping on the gray bandwagon I actually pointed out the ring rubbish before Choaser but I am currently leaning on WBG being the more likely scum member now.

Ill be gone for the next couple of hours so sorry about any sort of inactivity.

Furthermore, your reasoning for attacking Drazerk is a little troubling. So... if I understand correctly, DrH and Drazerk do the exact same thing, but one is a vet townie and one is scummy? Based purely on how you good you think they are? You also provide additional justification in saying he attacked you. He never attacked you, he called you out for claiming VT. I can believe you made a mistake, but your reactions so far to being challenged is one that I find highly suspicious.

On September 18 2011 03:41 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
kita missed me! <3

I've read quickly through the thread, and will probably go back and read through some of it again later.

Couple of things:

I see a lot of people assuming that the forces of evil will have no ability to transfer the ring. Personally, I think this is a silly assumption to make. There are at least two characters I can think of off the top of my head who flavour-wise would be able to transfer the ring: Lurtz and the Ringwraiths. Both were sent out by Saruman and Sauron respectively to retrieve the ring for their masters, so it makes sense that they can take the ring, and then transfer it. The best thing, would be to assume that some scum players can transfer the ring, and some can't, just like town. To assume that your opponents don't at least have the same potential powers as you seems arrogant and unsafe. (As shown by some of the possible plans revolving around the ring)

I'm a little out of it right now, so if I say anything weird or blatantly incorrect when talking about players, feel free to point it out. I know I did this reading through the thread, where in my head, I'd think someone was scummy-scum, but really I just forgot half of what they wrote or mixed them up with someone, or something equally silly.

Right now, I think it's safe to say that WBG is either Smeagol/Gollum or just trolling. He should be pressured for his thoughts, and if he's not forth-coming, should be ignored or vigilante-shot. Responding to him and encouraging him by giving him attention just detract from the thread by filling it with spam.

Also, on the topic of Gollum, I think that he's very likely third party. He'll probably work like an SK, able to make one kill a night, and wins when he kills the ring-bearer and receives the ring, removing himself and it from the game. This is what makes the most sense for me.

As well, if there's the potential for a role that could just steal the ring, who could that be (Besides maybe Gollum)? I haven't read the books since ~10 years ago, and haven't watched the movies for a while, either. One person who it could make sense for, is Boromir, however, as I remember him wanting to steal the ring. I'm just asking this, because people are worried about killing a possible Gollum because they think he's the only one who can steal the ring. (And like he'd work for us, either :p)

Right now, I don't like Drazerk's vote on WBG, because like I said, he's either trolling, or he's third-party with a posting restriction. So, that makes him a weak lynch target, and unless he starts contributing, a good vig target. Remember mafia can troll too, just look at Cosmic Horror.

I think heist actually makes a good point about navillus. There's a difference between making a vote for pressure, and making a vote for someone acting scummy. What he did, is say he made a vote for a specific reason, and later retracts it and says it's for pressure.

Last thing, there's been a lot of this:

On September 18 2011 03:13 Derpsky wrote:
Guys, stop talking/speculating about roles/set-up, it's spammy and non-contributory!

*Proceeds to speculate about roles and set-up*

Stop it >.<

On September 18 2011 10:21 Navillus wrote:
Supersoft I am Elladan, Elven Prince, Vanilla Townie Extraordinaire (I added extraordinaire... I'm sure some people would try to make that out as a scum slip somehow)

On September 17 2011 10:23 Navillus wrote:
God @#$% it I have now rolled VT in literally every &*!@ing game that had it that I have played in >:[ anyways if Drazerk gets to vote people with little to no justification then I do too

##Vote Drazerk

Wait does anyone think that he was seriously trying to get the ring?? I thought it was quite clear that his original post was a joke, not just the content he makes it look joking, it really is a null tell and doesn't matter if he contradicts it, cause you know, it was a joke...

On September 18 2011 02:11 Navillus wrote:


6th game != learned anything in 1-5, esp. cause I died really quickly in some and wasn't paying that much attention to most of them so I couldn't really learn. Also you're either lying about looking through my games, or just didn't really try, cause last game I played I opened with basically the same line, a complaint about getting VT yet again (I think it was cosmic horror, if not it was 2 games ago in werewolves but I'm pretty sure it was cosmic horror.)

As to my thoughts, I'm even more skeptical on Drazerk, I had figured that that first vote was pressure, and from what I know Dr. H is a very good vet player so I figured that's exactly what he was doing when he added his vote on, but Drazerk isn't as good as Dr. H, I could see him being scum and thinking that they could actually get a wagon going, then what made me more suspicious is that he completely ducks my vote and instead attacks me.

On September 18 2011 06:09 Navillus wrote:
I'm extraordinarily thick and incapable of reasoning, so please that silver platter would be excellent.

On September 18 2011 11:02 GreYMisT wrote:


Is everyone ignoring this because this is standard Jee-Jee? or did people honestly miss it?

4. I never said that Drazerk was beneath me, please don't put stupid words in my mouth it actually makes me angry. I compared him to Dr. H, and I also compared their actions which you neglected to mention.

On September 18 2011 12:20 OriginalName wrote:


I meant that Drazerk was beneath DrH, not you.

i also want to tell sandroba and palmar that i have the eru-iluvatar-given ability to instantly kill them at my will if they don't start posting.

On September 19 2011 04:37 prplhz wrote:
@ON

is that the most blatant omgus i have ever seen?

On September 19 2011 06:28 kitaman27 wrote:
Erandorr, I just saw what you edited out and that is 100% not a "wrong thread" edit. That was not a vote, that was a large post including multiple quotes in an attempt to defend yourself. Your first line was "I can see why people think I'm a good target".

##Vote Erandorr

On September 19 2011 06:30 Erandorr wrote:
My brain is not working today at all O.o (SO baaad that I actually did an edit in a mafia game /facepalm )
I guess I will try again: I make a decent lynch target when I filtered myself but I actually still do think that wbg is a good target, because his behaviour has been off. First what I considered trolling then claiming posting restrictions and then going back to posting normally like he didnt have one. And doing all that without giving a clear reason. Thats not weird to you in any way?

Throw on top of that the potential that he's full of shit or that we might learn something about the game set-up/mechanics, I'm perfectly happy to see him flip

way to not read my post and selectively bolded not my reason for voting for you – getting information is only icing on the cake... I'm voting for you because your indirect 3rd party claim is bizarre and distracting at best

On September 20 2011 11:45 Jackal58 wrote:
You guys think I'm scum because Bugs played a lame game?
If he didn't scream 3rd party to you you're lying.

On September 21 2011 10:09 TranceStorm wrote:

He never explicitly said that he wouldn't be able to post until wednesday. But I can give him leeway for right now until Thursday.

Also, does anyone else feel disquieted by the fact that iGrok refuses to respond to any of the arguments leveled against him (and change his behavior at all)?

On September 22 2011 06:09 Jackal58 wrote:

Scum buddies

On September 23 2011 08:20 GreYMisT wrote:
Anyone have any thoughts on this message? Do you guys think it combines with the message from day1?

On September 24 2011 05:53 Pyo wrote:



How about this, we let iGrok tell us who to lynch. We lynch that person and when that person flips red, we let him live another day (no promises beyond that), or if that person flips not red, we vig/lynch him. I think at this point, it's worth risking a one-for-one for the chance at a free scum kill.


On a separate note, when you say "you're going to kill me," who are you talking to, iGrok? Town or Scum?

On September 24 2011 06:21 OriginalName wrote:


This is shitty logic, we dont know how many scum nor do we know KP values. They could have extra KP or SK might have a one shot or a bunch of other variables. Not increadably safe imo, iGrok still good lynch.

Also i fully fess up to being stupid and following Radfield but at the time i still had an inkling of thought that he was town. After the Jackal lynch I did go back and was getting ready to push him but well he died.

EBWOP:
I meant that we could be at LYLO. On top of that WHY WOULD WE ALLOW OUR MOST SUSPECTED PERSON TO CONTROL LYNCH?

On September 24 2011 05:47 heist wrote:
So out of everyone in the Jackal lynch, let's look at ON in comparison to the two confirmed mafia: Radfield and Dr Helvetica



The original quote is by Radfield. His very first post is saying, "Good town post Radfield. Everyone should be listening to you."



Greymist is sort of suspicious so don't worry about the people (one of whom is Dr Helvetica) who are voting for Greymist. They are justified, but I'm also staying really noncommittal in case this actually results in a lynch.



Another indirect defense of Dr Helvetica. Didn't read it in context. He just saw DrH and came to his defense.



Bluefishing. It's obviously a joke. More noncommittal attitudes on Jackal and prplhz. Great. What changes his mind?



This ridiculous exchange with prplhz that supposedly tips him over the fence. Nice excuse not to provide any analysis.



His main analysis day 2 is on the one person attacking Radfield and his main reasoning is pyo's vote on WBG, null tells considering every lynch was on a townie. And who is the only one who agrees with him on his accusation? Radfield.





He clearly follows Radfield's lead for his final vote.

##Vote: Original_Name

On September 24 2011 07:03 GGQ wrote:


Actually if there's a bp sk out there (as I still believe chaoser is), then we literally have no choice but to lynch him at some point.

Also, why are you trying to get ON lynched instead of iGrok?

On September 24 2011 08:13 Pyo wrote:


wait, what? Explain, please. As far as I understand from the LotR lore, Saruman is was evil (well at least was certainly more evil than the dude that radfield flipped as).

On September 24 2011 09:16 heist wrote:




ON's flip has nothing to do with iGrok. ON is simply my best suspicion for mafia. If he flips red, that tells you nothing about iGrok. If he flips green, the better alternative is not automatically iGrok. Do you see how easily the votes are piling on iGrok? Mafia are perfectly fine lynching a 3rd party. And what do you mean "no matter what he flips after that is gonna be you"?




Oh woe is you. Stop sitting on your ass with your easy iGrok vote. Look into other people. The game isn't won on the off-chance iGrok flips red. Please don't waste our time with foolish joke claims.

On September 24 2011 09:50 GreYMisT wrote:
I propose iGrok give us saruman to confirm himself. Its simple, we lynch who he says saruman is. if the flip is correct we go from there. If the flip isnt saurman then we have a target for the night/ next day.

On September 24 2011 10:18 iGrok wrote:
Heist hit the nail on the head.

When picking a target last night, I had to think to myself: who could Saruman be?

To me, the only two people who fit the description were ON and Pyo. Not too active, not too inactive, but definitely capable of playing above their current level.

I picked ON.

I'm also going to need to know who to shoot tonight. There's no way scum lets me live again tonight if I still have a shot.

On September 24 2011 11:17 iGrok wrote:
You respond instantly, twice, yet you have fewer posts than anyone this game. Nice.

On September 24 2011 11:46 OriginalName wrote:


I probably also have the least amount of time during the week to post. Your problem?

On September 24 2011 11:48 iGrok wrote:

Not me you have to convince broski

On September 19 2011 08:45 iGrok wrote:
Ok, lets review. Who of the following are the scummiest?

Palmar - Not doing much so far
Radfield - Has been active. Pulled wagons off GreyMist and WBG, onto Errandor. Suspicious.
Syllogism - Was active early on in Ring discussions.
prplhz - Leaving this until later
kitaman27 - No great analysis, but decent reasons for voting and has worked to pressure
OriginalName - After watching him play in Resurrection, he's playing the same way. Minimum contribution to avoid focus.
Vain - 1 liners except to defend prplhz
Erandorr - somehow appeared on his own vote list?
TranceStorm - I see a connection between TranceStorm and Radfield forming when I filter him. TS often references Radfield's arguements. TS also attacked prplhz early on

On September 21 2011 11:28 iGrok wrote:


I've been thinking about this. And I think it is, in fact, time for me to claim.

So, as my meta, this is my incredibly huge post.

---

Ok, I've come under a lot of fire lately for lurking. And it's true, I have been. But trying to use meta arguments (other than lack of a monster post, which is never on D1 anyways) on me is stupid - I dare you to find two games in which I've played similar styles as similar roles. And in this game, I'm a role I've never been before.

I am the Balrog.

I am a Survivor.

I have a number of powers, but I'll start with my wincon: I win when any faction wins and Gandalf is dead. So, the second part of my wincon has been conveniently fulfilled. Gandalf probably wasn't supposed to die this early - I've got a few powers that would have aided me in my quest for Gandalf.

• I can investigate a player each night and discover if they are Maia. Gandalf, Saruman, Sauron, and Radagast are Maia (I am told these 4 names - more on this after my full claim).
  
• I have one unblockable nightkill.

But that only helps me kill Gandalf. I still need to survive. Fortunately, I have a passive power:

• I know what happens when I get the ring. I become Bulletproof.

---

I'll take a quick breather to let you all think about everything I've just said. When you're ready, scroll down.

---

It's time for my favorite! Setup Analysis time! In a closed setup, its difficult - but as a 3rd party role, and with all the recent flips, I think I can figure a few things out.

I'll start with my role, as it is the most complicated.

---

Survivors suck. You have to somehow survive to endgame, against a mafia team who doesn't know not to kill you. So you have to be as non-threatening as possible, while avoiding lynch. This leads you to lurk hardcore. This is no fun.

But my role is a little different. I have a goal, and tools at my disposal. And I think I've figured out how Curu intended for Balrog to be played - Investigate people, when you find a Maia, use the thread to figure out what kind. Then get them lynched. Use the oneshot to get the ring once it pops up somewhere, and then go into heavy pro-town action to win the game.

With the death of Gandalf though, I can change things up a bit. After all, it's in my best interest to survive. And for me, the choice seems clear: Get the ring.

With this in mind, I have a proposal for the town. 2 Maia have died (Gandalf and Sauron). One, maybe two are left. Saruman definitely, lets be honest he's going to be in here. He's kind of a big deal in LotR. Radagast on the other hand...+ Show Spoiler +
Anyways, my proposal - give me the ring, and I'll trade you an unblockable KP, Saruman checks, and I'll actually contribute useful analysis. Who decides on the KP? Well, if you're a DT I'll give it to you - when you check me you'll get my role PM, If you want to use my power, post the first word in the name of my Checking ability in one of your posts. I'll use it on the next name that appears in your post. Also, I'll check whoever got the second-most votes each night to see if they are Saruman or Radagast.

Why should you trust me? Because this forces me to act pro-town. I'm basically saying, I'm 3rd party but with your help I can be a Bullet-proof Vigilante. Think about that. If I get the ring, I can still be lynched - so if I don't hold up my end, you can lynch me.

So thats the deal. I want to win. Give me the ring, and I hunt the other White Wizard, while scumhunting the best I can. As a sign of good faith, I'll include an analysis later on, and I'll tell you that Radfield is neither Saruman nor Radagast (I thought he might be Gandalf).

---

On to the rest of the analysis, what little I can do. Take it or leave it, but I've been known to perfectly guess setups before. I won't attempt to do so, but lets see...

First, look at Gandalf's Powers. He's called a Jack of all Trades, but he's not actually that strong. He has 4 powers, but he can't even combine them. Gandalf is supposed to be the strongest damn being in the lotr universe. But he's a purely information role.

In contrast, Sauron's Role: He, too, has investigative powers. He also has an unblockable kill, AND is godfather. Sauron just seems like a more powerful role than Gandalf. But what can we take from this?

Mafia seem to be pretty heavily loaded. Supporting this are the existence of a Jailkeeper and Messenger - Messengers are awesome for confirming players, and Jailkeepers are excellent on offense or defense against mafia.

So, with heavily loaded mafia AND at least one 3rd party, Town has to have some serious firepower and/or protection. I expect Aragorn to have KP (Curu if you make him and Legolas Trackers I will not forgive you - and if GIMLI doesn't have kp... They're the fucking heroes!) I don't forsee there being more than two medics (Eowyn and Galadriel are my guesses), but combined with a Jailkeeper and a vet or two we're starting to talk about some high-power games.

My final note about setup: Pippin (Peregrin Took). The existence of pm-oriented roles is cool, and I highly doubt there's just one. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Merry was a clone of Pippin's role.

---

So now its time for some sample analysis.

And my focus today is Palmar.


This was his first post. Nothing scummy here, but it sets the mood for everything else he posts.

Now, here's a list of his opinions since then.
Radfield, WBG, Errandor
prplhz
DrH
Radfield, himself, Sandroba, Pyo

Pause. Next post.


Here, minimal interaction with DrH is played off as enough to auto-confirm him. This post sets off alarm bells in my head. Palmar contributed 4 posts before DrH died, 2 of which were "Herp I'm not reading the thread" (He was obviously reading the thread). Its his fourth post that interests me: "DrH is giving me really bad vibes." At the time, it looked like just another throwaway post. But post DrH's death, this post looks more like DrH new he was going to be modkilled and Palmar jumped out early to get a townie point.

For the rest of the game, two things are going on. He puts faith in Radfield, and he continues to stress Sandroba town. (yes theres other shit but those're the important parts)

Palmar already feels scummy. So lets continue on that assumption, and introduce possibilities.
1)Radfield and Sandroba are both town. If this is true, then Palmar is trying to gain town cred when they flip. With sandroba acting scummy and a possible lynch, and Radfield a good mafia target, thats two points for him. Fits with calling DrH scum.
2)Radfield is town, Sandroba is scum. This is using Radfield's town cred to make Sandroba look better. Even those who don't trust Palmar will subliminally put them on closer levels. If sandroba didn't look so damn scummy, it might work.
3)Radfield is scum, Sandroba is town. I just... don't see this as possible.
4)Both are scum. I don't know what this would mean actually

---

---

---

Alright guys, well you've heard me out. Give me the ring, and I'll start working a hell of a lot harder this game, hunt down Saruman, and give a DT an unblockable shot. Otherwise, I'll basically keep doing what I've done so far. Your move.

On September 21 2011 14:41 iGrok wrote:

Just making sure I won't be modkilled. Since Mig's answers break rule 6.

On September 24 2011 05:12 iGrok wrote:
Oh and I found a Maia last night lol. Which means I found Saruman. But no way in hell am I telling you guys.

You're going to kill me.

On September 25 2011 03:26 Cyber_Cheese wrote:


Bottom line first, of course it's suspicious, that doesn't make it impossible. That claim wasn't one of the things that convinced me, because it likely was convenient lie. I wouldn't even put it past him to have found the real Saruman and lied about who rather than be forced out of that information so far from the lynch.

Chaoser attacked the person who was leading the town best, The fact Radfield flipped scum doesn't necessarily excuse that. I'm not sure about iGrok's reasoning, but learning he could be blocked changed things.
The rest of the difference between the two of them in my eyes is related to their claims. Chaoser used a claim that sounded relatively safe, but had many mistakes like Boromir as a neutral party when he was party of the fellowship and a 'win with town' victory condition. iGrok's is nothing near safe and is relatively more believable.

On September 25 2011 03:50 chaoser wrote:


Do you think igrok is scum ON?

On September 25 2011 05:54 Pyo wrote:


because that DT would be anymore believable than iGrok... stop saying stupid things.

On September 25 2011 06:20 GMarshal wrote:


I love this game.

On September 25 2011 08:14 raynpelikoneet wrote:


Why do you think so? Just curious becouse i can't find a reason to believe so.

On September 25 2011 08:19 Palmar wrote:
game solved.

pyo, heist and cheesekid are the remaining scum

On September 25 2011 08:24 raynpelikoneet wrote:


care to explain why Pyo is scum?

On September 25 2011 08:33 prplhz wrote:
who the hell dayhit syllo on day2?

i have the ring and i've had it all game and i might need some sort of protection tonight

also, there are 6 scum so you're missing someone on your list palmar

@chaoser

who are you going to hit tonight? can you pick your target yourself?

On September 25 2011 09:23 Pyo wrote:
I don't care that iGrok flipped scum... ON is still scum. As far as I'm concerned, iGrok named him as a way "confirm" another scum as town since his lynch was a fargone conclusion.

On September 25 2011 12:01 chaoser wrote:
Palmer and ON, thanks for helping me vote correctly for mafia. A debt that I will hold with me. And I always pay my debts.

On September 25 2011 12:15 chaoser wrote:


LOLOLOL, at least Rains of Castamere isn't playing. Sorry, reading Game of Thrones right now since kita posted that picture of sean bean as ned stark =P. Meant nothing by it.

On September 26 2011 09:29 heist wrote:
ON who is your best read for mafia? If it's me, I expect something more substantial than my defending of iGrok.

I am Boromir, Lord of Gondor, Son of Man

I can kill people if certain requirements, that I will not say, are fulfilled.

On September 26 2011 10:47 GreYMisT wrote:


Actually I can see how mafia would benefit from knowing your shot mechanics, it is possible (given the nature of the mechanics) they might be able to take measures to ensure they are not met.
So this raises the quesion: Why do you want to know so badly ON?

On September 28 2011 07:23 kitaman27 wrote:


haha nice to see you finally show up at the last minute. Nice one.

On September 28 2011 07:24 TranceStorm wrote:
Um ON, would you care to explain your vote in light of your earlier statement here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=264699&currentpage=98#1941?

On September 28 2011 07:25 kitaman27 wrote:


Answer me this:
Do you honestly think I took a 1/20 shot and lied about tracking?
Also, why did you claim a vanilla town Arwen, the Evenstar so easily when it was clear iGrok was just fishing for blues?

On September 28 2011 07:25 kitaman27 wrote:


Answer me this:
Do you honestly think I took a 1/20 shot and lied about tracking?
Also, why did you claim a vanilla town Arwen, the Evenstar so easily when it was clear iGrok was just fishing for blues?

On September 28 2011 07:27 kitaman27 wrote:


huh? Then who did you claim ON?

On September 28 2011 07:28 kitaman27 wrote:


I already did. Did you not read the entire thread yet? I claimed to track WBG on day one.

On September 28 2011 07:29 kitaman27 wrote:


And since it doesnt really seem to matter. I tracked you last night. You didn't commit an action.

On September 28 2011 07:29 kitaman27 wrote:


Will you confirm that you didn't make an action last night?

On September 28 2011 07:31 chaoser wrote:
lol, watching two mafia talk to each other is hilarious.

"I don't trust you"
"I checked you and you didn't do an action"
"ugh, now I trust you, you guys want to do a last minute switch?"

On September 28 2011 07:38 chaoser wrote:
Calling bullshit on it

On October 07 2011 13:05 chaoser wrote:


In particular, Pandian's Mafia team in Insane Mafia 1 I think it was