EPTReal Time Mafia
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
Sandroba - Almost certainly town. In my experience mafia day 1 seem to mostly sit back or push to lynch an easy target. GM is pretty much the opposite of an easy day 1 lynch. So that combined with the fact that he is posting strongly with a differing opinion from what most of the town has gives him huge town cred in my eyes. I also agree with most of his thoughts on the lurkers. Lurkers suck but shooting them will almost certainly just being killing townies. GM - Really not sure. At the start I was a bit concerned about how his play might mirror that from XXXVII. But really he is 10x as outspoken and decisive this game. One thing he did say that concerned me tho was where he said he had no real analysis yet but would have it after 30 hours or so. Mafia post when it is convenient for them not for the town and often times you will see them promise to deliver analysis that never comes. GM even did some of this in PTP. So overall I am uncertain about him right now but I think he would be a bad day 1 lynch. He is super active and generates a lot of discussion. Even if he is mafia there will be a lot more information to build a case against him within a day or 2. Youngminii - I am suspicious of. First he starts out aggressively attacking some people which is fine. However once GM vs Sandroba starts he kind of fades a bit into the background without giving much of an opinion on who is right. Including this very strong stance he takes here. On June 28 2011 16:32 youngminii wrote: I can see what sandroba's saying, I don't fully agree but I don't fully disagree either. Which he makes without providing any explanation whatsoever to what part he agrees and disagrees with. Overall not the strongest case but he is probably the most suspicious to me so far. One other person I find suspicious is Eiii. He posted saying he promised himself he would post his thoughts more. Yet so far he has only posted a paragraph basically saying he doesn't understand the early days and doesn't like the showiness of some posters. He hasn't given any opinion on any specific people that he is suspicious of at all. I always try to take note of when someone says they are going to do something pro town and then does pretty much the opposite. So if I had to place my vote now I would vote for either Eiii or YM. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
Jackal especially looks incredibly suspicious to me. Jackal is a very good vet and he has played the last couple of games with sinani and knows how bad he is. Yet he comes in posts a very short attack of sinani votes and disappears wtf? Where is the normal jackal who actually is active and puts pressure on people? Awesome I disagree with the GM lynch. I think GM has been trying to be pro town and when I have seen him play mafia in the past he is rarely this outspoken and active. This basically seems like GM town play 101. There are way better targets for a day 1 lynch than someone who is as active as him. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
On June 29 2011 02:37 DropBear wrote: Dude saying that sinani's a lot more active isn't a town tell at all. Noone wants to be on that lurker list. It's not activity we are looking at, it's much more about content. Why do you disagree with GM being Mafia? What do you mean by pro-town? Who are these better targets for day 1 you speak of? Sinani has been useless every game he has played why is he more useless/scummy this game? Look at his first game as mafia he attempted to fake contribute heavily to stay under the radar. I haven't really seen him do any of that. The better targets day 1 I think are guys like Jackal who aren't contributing and are playing out of character or someone like Eiii who promises to be pro town and contribute his thoughts then goes right back to lurking without actually providing any content. On June 29 2011 02:31 TheAwesomeAll wrote: So just because he is active as he was when he played town, he must be town now as well? In that case Jackal is townie, since he led a foolish day 1 lynch in the game i played with him as well. + Show Spoiler + Metagaming is all good but focus on my arguments please, he got SUPER defensive when i accused Hiro, auto voted for me, went from super aggressive to backing up in 2 posts flat, made his voice worthless by saying he was looking for my 'tic'. What do you think about that? No no active definitely does not just equal town, but I mean in general I would prefer to lynch someone less active day 1 because as long as GM is alive he is going to be active and so we are going to have a ton of information to use to determine whether he is town or mafia. Hm I do agree though that GM's case against you is incredibly weak. But I will wait to see how he follows up on it before instantly declaring him scum for it. I will say that If GM continues with just posting pro town advice and not any actual good analysis and scum hunting I would be willing to change my opinion about him. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
I am voting drazerk. Just quick word on my reasons why. A) Not sure if the dt did actually check him but there is probably some % chance that he could have. B) Townies more often tend to let their actions speak for them where as mafia try and make a town play then point it out for everyone to see. Draz makes a martyr post then immediately links to a game where he did the same as townie. This just sets off immediate warning bells to me because he wasn't really just giving up like his post was saying but instead was trying to copy his play as town from a previous game and hope people would notice. This just strikes me as a very scum thing to do. Quick thoughts on a couple others Visceyes - Not nearly as aggressive as he normally is as town, makes a ton of non committal posts where he really contributes nothing. Also like I said earlier scum post when it is convenient for them not for the town. Anyone who promises analysis then fails to deliver should make everyone extremely suspicious. Would be an excellent vig shot. GM - GM may actually have real life issues he is dealing with but we can't really know. But he did promise the town analysis that he hasn't delivered on. He just stopped in made one post saying people shouldn't link him and draz together then disappeared. If he does come back soon and make a good analysis it probably isn't an issue but for now I am a bit wary. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
Visc hasn't just promised once saying he was going to make analysis but has done it repeatedly. He then provides absolutely nothing for the town, takes 0 stands on any players and when pressured he rushes out an analysis on draz (the person most analyzed by other players already). And really it just seems so opposite from Visc's normal town play. His opinions are often wrong but he has strong opinions and he has no fear expressing them and attacking other people. This game has been pretty much the polar opposite. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
Draz's martyr post I still think is suspicious but there is at least some chance I could be wrong and he is just a desperate townie trying to convince us of his innocence. I think there is a much much higher chance that Visc is mafia. I know meta isn't everything but looking through Visc's posts it is amazing how different he is. Visc not taking stands and randomly accusing people is like dropbear not making millions of useless pbp analysis or kenpachi actually contributing, it is a 180 degree shift in play. I really can't emphasis this point strongly enough. And not only is it a change in play, but it is a shift that would greatly hurt town. There is no reason for him as town to decide to just stop contributing and giving his opinions on people when that is his norm. It is much more likely for him to play this way as mafia. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
Neither of you post very much and all your posts are completely useless. But you are obviously active because you respond as soon as someone targets you. The very definition of someone lurking. 206 you decided to vote for VE because he hadn't done any analysis. Where is your analysis? Have you actually done any analysis this entire game? And then there is this this post. QUOTE]On June 29 2011 13:40 sinani206 wrote: Stop derailing the thread with the IRC nonsense. You're scaring others (like me) from posting.[/QUOTE] This was completely nonsensical, there was absolutely no reason the IRC discussion would scare anyone from posting. It is like you are looking for an excuse to not contribute and help. I still think the case against VE is stronger but I think 206 would be a great vig shot. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
On June 30 2011 04:48 sinani206 wrote: I voted for VE because he promised analysis and didn't deliver, and when he did, it wasn't as good as he hyped it up to be. He probably took like 10 minutes to write that. I acknowledge that I haven't found anyone outstandingly scummy to do an analysis of. What do you want me to do, apologize? How can you not find anything scummy to analyze lol? Practically everyone else in the game has done at least some analysis. I mean it isn't hard. If you want to contribute just post your thoughts on the other players, who you suspect and why. I mean surely after 30 pages you have some people you are more suspicious of than others. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
On June 30 2011 07:52 Jackal58 wrote: And as far as that goes Mig please come back. What's up? I am playing a tourney right now so I am on my phone. I would prefer to lynch VE still right now. But the case against sinani I think is strong. Sandroba do you have anymore reasons to lynch sinani besides the possible scum slips? I might be willing to switch to sinani but I definitely prefer the VE lynch over drazert. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
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Mig
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Sinani206/supersoft - After GM I feel the case against 206 is the strongest. I listed a bunch of reasons already for why he is scummy yesterday. Adding on to those is the fact that when pressured on why he hadn't been contributing he gave excuses like "I don't see anything really scummy to do an analysis on" or "I think GM is scummy but I can't give you any reasons why". But after he was called out on what poor reasons those were he actually created a very strong analysis of 201. This was very suspicious for 2 reasons, A) obviously sinani had the capability to do good analysis and contribute to the town the entire game, yet he chose not to actually do any of it and contribute to the town until he was under pressure and B) he literally did the EXACT same thing in XXXIX as mafia. He was useless the entire game and then right before he was lynched he wrote up a very good analysis bussing one of his teammates in an attempt to save himself. If you look through 206's posts you will see he didn't want to contribute and was looking for excuses not to until he was forced to actually try by the pressure the town was putting on him. The only thing I am not sure of regarding him is the fact that draz/dropbear both targeted him. But as people have said dropbear has bussed many of his teammates in the past so I am going to focus more on what I feel is 206's scummy behavior. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
On July 01 2011 06:51 VisceraEyes wrote: I do not agree that GM is scum. I think he's too set on catching a bullet. I mean, he COULD be like, GF that's painted up to LOOK like a Vet, but I seriously doubt he'd gamble his life against 1)Vigs too chickenshit to do something for town, 2) DT noticing this and throwing a check on him, 3) DT verifying his claim. It doesn't make sense. Period. GM CAN NOT be scum, I 100% guarantee it. I'll check him tomorrow if you guys spare him tonight, but really...thinking he's scum after BEGGING for a bullet is...guys, it's retarded. There's no other way to say it. Scum WOULD NOT do that. I think it's pretty stupid to guarantee GM can't be scum when literally in 2 of his last 3 games played he martyred himself and asked to be killed as mafia to try and buy town cred. Unless you know something we don't..... And explain his motivations for why he is acting the way he is? You can't possibly say what GM is doing is good for the town right? I have a hard time believing GM would straight up refuse to contribute as a townie. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
VE - I have never seen a game with 3 dts and honestly I think he is probably lying. The only thing that keeps me from going 100% for his lynch is the fact that in the previous game there were 2 gfs, 2 rbers and 3 millers which I had never seen either. When I saw that setup I thought it was mafia favored and mafia won so easily I guess it is possible that they adjusted it to have 3 dts this game. Still though on average if this is anything resembling a normal setup it is incredibly unlikely for there to be 3 dts. I guess right now I am ok with letting him slide if there are other good lynch candidates but he should be lynched sooner rather than later. Also I think he would be a very good candidate for our vigs to shoot (assuming we have more than just the cvig). 206 - There does seem to be a very decent chance that chaos checked him so I am fine with putting him on the back burner for now. 201 - 206's analysis of 201 was good and he has been actively lurking. He usually responds quickly when people post about him yet he provides no analysis or thoughts of his own. I would be fine with his lynch. Hiro - I feel like hiro is very similar to 201. Posts almost no original content, and sheeps onto whoever he feels is playing the most pro town (started with gm and just recently did it with palmar). Would be ok with his lynch. But part of me feels there is a chance he could just be very sheepish town. YM - If chaos got a red check back it was almost certainly from checking YM. Along with that a lot of what YM has done makes me feel off about him. First he started out throwing a lot of random accusations out and causing conflict but once the conflict had started where sandroba and GM were fighting he faded into the background and didn't really contribute or take super strong stands, including making posts like this. On June 28 2011 16:32 youngminii wrote: I can see what sandroba's saying, I don't fully agree but I don't fully disagree either. For someone who was so aggressive and willing to call people out once sides started to be formed he didn't seem eager to take a strong stance. I also agree with syllogism that YM's reasoning was extremely poor and not thought out for why he wanted to lynch Draz. I also find it suspicious how YM instantly attacked everyone who thought VE was suspicious before his dt claim. I thought the case behind VE being scummy was extremely strong before the dt claim. After it YM comes in and immediately attacks the credibility of all the people who pushed for that lynch saying VE wasn't playing badly but they were. I would really like to hear YM's thoughts on VE now that chaos is dead. So my vote for the day is going onto YM. There is a very good chance that Chaos checked him and got red and I feel he has done a ton of things that could be pushing mafia objectives. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
1) Write a long analysis and vote for a 3rd candidate day 1 when the top 2 candidates were both scum. 2) Defended draz and VE soft defended GM on day 1 as well. 3) After draz's lynch refused to contribute and actually help the town unless he was shot, something very unlike GM to do. Eh actually while writing this I realized something. If GM was mafia why didn't he shoot YM last night? If opz is really a one shot vig then there is no compulsive vig. So if YM died there would be no way to confirm GM. It could have just been an oversight on GM's part I suppose but I guess despite everything he has done I think GM is town. I would like to hear some other people's thoughts on this in case I am missing something. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
But I see now that my idea wasn't right. YM said he didn't feel like blowing up gmarshal anymore and was going to pick his own targets then shortly after mafia shot 201. So maybe GM decided to gamble and that it was more important to kill a confirmed townie. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
On July 03 2011 07:23 syllogism wrote: So Mig, what was GM's master plan in this game? Allow VE to fake claim DT and then get him lynched for town cred? Then when it failed, he panicked and gambled on none of the possible vigis or hatters taking his offer? Then he bussed his GF, knowing full well there was a claimed hatter who was very likely going to bomb him on the day after. Then, instead of immediately shooting YM after the lynch, he decided it would be better to wait and pray YM, without any persuasion, would decided bombing GM wasn't a good idea after all? Scum play has been so bad even disregarding all of the above him being on the scum team makes very little sense. Having said that, I still think testing his vet claim is okay. Ah yea actually you are right GM was around right after the lynch before YM had made his statement. So that is basically what I was looking for a way we could try and potentially confirm GM as town without having to make him lose one of his lives. If GM were mafia I don't see any reason he wouldn't have insta shot YM as soon as the deadline was over. | ||
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Mig
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Mig
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Lurker list seems fine just need it approved in time. I would prefer if hyaach/eiii were killed from the list but I don't mind opz/ym killing whomever they feel is best. If I am not dead I will vote for jackal/eiii/hyaach depending on what ym/opz do. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
On July 04 2011 04:38 ~OpZ~ wrote: Vote for hyaaach, because I would like you to be complacent with dying to a lynch. YM not killing himself is begginning to annoy me. Huh? Why do you want me to be complacent with being lynched? If someone wants to throw a random vote on me with no reasoning there isn't any point to defending myself. But if someone wants to make a case against me why wouldnt I counter it? | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
On July 04 2011 04:54 ~OpZ~ wrote: You've been lurking. Hiro has been attempted bus by every mafia...Voting for him seems counter productive, ya dig? You, Hyaaach, Palmar, YoungMinii are my mafia suspect list. And RoL, if I die before my extra vig hit is an option -_-.... Yea that is fine. But I don't see how it is good play to lay down to die if I know I am town. If you want to push a case against me that is fine but I will defend myself. | ||
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Mig
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Mig
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On July 04 2011 05:58 gtrsrs wrote: i voted Mig cause i won't vote for E3 without evidence STRONG EVIDENCE What strong evidence is there against me? | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
This plan also makes me reconsider my opinion of jackal. Putting himself in the line of fire like this is a pretty big risk to take if he were mafia. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
Your plan seems to hinge mainly on palmar being scum jackal. If we lynched palmar and he flipped town would you still be confident your plan was going to work? | ||
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Mig
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Mig
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Mig
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Mig
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Mig
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Obviously I was still a big big underdog but I did think I had a legitimate shot at winning even if it was small. Anyway mistakes happen so oh well. Thanks for hosting RoL, Kurumi, node, radfield. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
Town all assumed you couldn't lose because you hypothetically had so many confirmed townies. But since I killed 201 and YM wasn't going to bomb GM opz was the only actual confirmed you had. Opz was going to be a huge problem because I was too afraid to shoot him because of medics. But if I had lucked into them dying coulda solved that. | ||
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Mig
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And I really don't think you would have convinced YM to confirm GM like 95% he was just going to suicide on whomever he thought was the best target. | ||
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Mig
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And did you read the last 5 pages? I mean there was 0% chance GM and Palmar were both going to get to the late game together. They both wanted to lynch each other, especially GM lynching palmar. | ||
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Mig
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Mig
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The navillus hit - I had originally thought he might be blue because of him asking the dt question in the thread. But after talking with wiggles he convinced us that navillus was not blue and if he had been he probably would have pmd rol his question. So we decided against hitting him but dropbear had serious blood lust and just constantly wanted to kill people in real time. So while me and wiggles were asleep he got impatient and sent in the kill for nav. Definitely a huge mistake. VE claiming dt - This wasn't planned out by anyone VE came up with it on his own spontaneously. If GM had convinced people to lynch VE and he had flipped red it would have giving draz such town cred would have been great. Even tho that didn't happen I thought it was still ok. The case against VE was super strong so he was going to be lynched very soon regardless. We all knew the dt claim was just a temporary solution because there was still a likely dt out there who would end up exposing him but the claim might be able to buy him a little time. Varp/chaos hit - When we were debating day 2 kills I said over and over and over that if we were going to kill varp to try and buy VE more time we needed to send the varp kill in last. I thought either jackal or chaos was the other dt because they were speaking out so strongly against VE. If we killed the other dt first we knew there wasn't much hope for VE so we wouldn't bother to kill varp. But kenpachi accidentally sent in the varp kill first. If we had sent them in the right order we never would have killed varp and things could have turned out a lot different. So a lack of communication caused a lot of mistakes that really cost us overall. | ||
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Mig
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On July 04 2011 19:54 Kurumi wrote: Since VE claimed to check Varpulis,I was dead sure he is going to blow him up. Why? "I checked him but I can't out him because mafia will snipe him" Sounds like he got a blue,town! But why he won't tell us anyway then? This should be picked on,still though Lanaia hit was quite legit. Yea I agree our original plan was just to have VE claim rb constantly but then db got hit and the town all assumed he was our only rb so VE trying to claim that probably wouldn't have done him much good anyway. | ||
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