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On June 30 2011 07:05 syllogism wrote:
I think there's 6 hours left until lynch based on the day post, which would mean the third kill was indeed a mafia kill and not a vigi hit. Well, unless someone someone was double stacked, but that seems unlikely.
So, who do you think should be lynched today?
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VE, when you have time, why Drazek over Sinani206?
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On June 30 2011 07:52 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
@GM
How sure are you that Draz's martyring and self-referencing are a null-tell, and how strong is your read on sinani?
Curious. :p
martyring is *terrible* scum play, as I learned in PYP:I, not sure if Draz knows that though, when I say "null tell" I mean that its behavior that both scum and town do, which means it plays no part on when I read someone, so no matter *who* did it (unless its an experienced player with no history of self reference), that means the null-tell isn't strong or weak, its simply not a factor in my analysis.
My read on sinani206 is strong, for a day 1 read, but its a day 1 call, and I'm notoriously bad at those. Right now of the candidates up to lynch I think he is the most likely to be mafia.
However I'm sure there are better candidates, I just don't want us to have a hectic last minute voteswitch and let the mafia control who gets lynched. For example I'd be happy to put hiro up for lynch, but with only about 5 hours left in the day, I'm sure it wouldn't be beneficial to us to start a serious wagon on him.
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On June 30 2011 08:26 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2011 08:18 sandroba wrote:
Fuckballs, sinani's analysis on his alter ego is actually quite decent. O.O I was literally JUST thinking that...and after I'd just said he never commits to a stance. -.-
Whats bothersome is that he had to wait to be leading the wagon to be arsed to post an analysis, to me this reeks of either distancing himself or trying to divert a lynch
bbl I have stuff to do
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On June 30 2011 09:58 VisceraEyes wrote:
*slowclap* Congratulations Palmar, you've successfully led a lynch of a townie. Your leadership skills are....astounding.
Oh, I guess before I die I should go ahead and claim.
I am a Detective, and I've had a guilty on Draz since I posted my analysis. I'm sorry that I had to come out like this, but you guys are about to make the biggest mistake of the game and I figured something had to be done.
For the record, this is why I've been inactive. This is literally the FIRST time I've been given a meaningful power-role that didn't involve dying, so I didn't want to fuck it up. And with the blue-sniping of XLII, I was scared SHITLESS to post. But I can assure you, Drazerk is guilty, and HE should be hanging today, not me.
DT claim means its time to hang Drazek. If he flips anything but red your ass is toast.
##Unvote
##Vote: Drazek
this is entirely against my read on drazek, but DT checks rarely lie.
GOGOGOGO VOTESWITCH.
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On June 30 2011 10:04 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2011 09:58 VisceraEyes wrote:
*slowclap* Congratulations Palmar, you've successfully led a lynch of a townie. Your leadership skills are....astounding.
Oh, I guess before I die I should go ahead and claim.
I am a Detective, and I've had a guilty on Draz since I posted my analysis. I'm sorry that I had to come out like this, but you guys are about to make the biggest mistake of the game and I figured something had to be done.
For the record, this is why I've been inactive. This is literally the FIRST time I've been given a meaningful power-role that didn't involve dying, so I didn't want to fuck it up. And with the blue-sniping of XLII, I was scared SHITLESS to post. But I can assure you, Drazerk is guilty, and HE should be hanging today, not me. By the way, for future reference if you're telling the truth, please, please don't try to play differently when you're blue. Just play completely normally.
So, you think he is lying?
Actually this is a day 1 claim, isn't it. As per Ace's logic we then lynch the dt. Sorry VE, but flipping drezak first tells us nothing about your alignment, while flipping you first reveals both yours and Drezaks. If you do flip DT we vigi Drezak first thing tomorrow morning.
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On June 30 2011 10:09 GGQ wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2011 10:07 GMarshal wrote:On June 30 2011 10:04 Palmar wrote:On June 30 2011 09:58 VisceraEyes wrote:
*slowclap* Congratulations Palmar, you've successfully led a lynch of a townie. Your leadership skills are....astounding.
Oh, I guess before I die I should go ahead and claim.
I am a Detective, and I've had a guilty on Draz since I posted my analysis. I'm sorry that I had to come out like this, but you guys are about to make the biggest mistake of the game and I figured something had to be done.
For the record, this is why I've been inactive. This is literally the FIRST time I've been given a meaningful power-role that didn't involve dying, so I didn't want to fuck it up. And with the blue-sniping of XLII, I was scared SHITLESS to post. But I can assure you, Drazerk is guilty, and HE should be hanging today, not me. By the way, for future reference if you're telling the truth, please, please don't try to play differently when you're blue. Just play completely normally. So, you think he is lying? Actually this is a day 1 claim, isn't it. As per Ace's logic we then lynch the dt. Sorry VE, but flipping drezak first tells us nothing about your alignment, while flipping you first reveals both yours and Drezaks. If you do flip DT we vigi Drezak first thing tomorrow morning. Please explain why this is the case.
Sure thing. When a DT claims day 1 there are a few possibilities.
1.) He is scum, and is trying to establish himself as town and his target is red
2.) He is a DT as he claims
3.) He is scum and his target is green, this is a form of damage control
Say we hang his claimed target first, and he flips red. Now we have to sit here and spend a whole day or more wifoming about is he scum busing a team mate to become a "confirmed" townie and lead us astray? Is he a DT and we need to follow his commands? Why isn't the mafia shooting/rbing him?
We lynch the DT first and we know for sure what Drezaks alignment is, and we avoid the whole shenanigans with not knowing what VE is. Looking over VE's posts they make some sense for a new blue, but this is still the proper way to handle DT claims day 1 and 2.
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On June 30 2011 10:10 VisceraEyes wrote:
Ace's logic applies to D1 starts with Night kills...not a Real-Time setup with NO night-phase.
But hey, do whatever you want. I can rest easy now that you guys know the truth.
Actually it applies to any game where DTs can have checks by day 1.
Either way, I'm thinking of not going for the optimal play, your posts *fit* being blue. As of right now my vote is on Drazek, but I need to think on this -__-
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On June 30 2011 10:15 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2011 10:13 GMarshal wrote:On June 30 2011 10:09 GGQ wrote:On June 30 2011 10:07 GMarshal wrote:On June 30 2011 10:04 Palmar wrote:On June 30 2011 09:58 VisceraEyes wrote:
*slowclap* Congratulations Palmar, you've successfully led a lynch of a townie. Your leadership skills are....astounding.
Oh, I guess before I die I should go ahead and claim.
I am a Detective, and I've had a guilty on Draz since I posted my analysis. I'm sorry that I had to come out like this, but you guys are about to make the biggest mistake of the game and I figured something had to be done.
For the record, this is why I've been inactive. This is literally the FIRST time I've been given a meaningful power-role that didn't involve dying, so I didn't want to fuck it up. And with the blue-sniping of XLII, I was scared SHITLESS to post. But I can assure you, Drazerk is guilty, and HE should be hanging today, not me. By the way, for future reference if you're telling the truth, please, please don't try to play differently when you're blue. Just play completely normally. So, you think he is lying? Actually this is a day 1 claim, isn't it. As per Ace's logic we then lynch the dt. Sorry VE, but flipping drezak first tells us nothing about your alignment, while flipping you first reveals both yours and Drezaks. If you do flip DT we vigi Drezak first thing tomorrow morning. Please explain why this is the case. Sure thing. When a DT claims day 1 there are a few possibilities. 1.) He is scum, and is trying to establish himself as town and his target is red 2.) He is a DT as he claims 3.) He is scum and his target is green, this is a form of damage control Say we hang his claimed target first, and he flips red. Now we have to sit here and spend a whole day or more wifoming about is he scum busing a team mate to become a "confirmed" townie and lead us astray? Is he a DT and we need to follow his commands? Why isn't the mafia shooting/rbing him? We lynch the DT first and we know for sure what Drezaks alignment is, and we avoid the whole shenanigans with not knowing what VE is. Looking over VE's posts they make some sense for a new blue, but this is still the proper way to handle DT claims day 1 and 2. 1.) We get a scum kill. then we just make sure to keep thinking critically instead of blindly trusting 2.) Aweomse 3.) 1 for 1 is a trade I'll take The only really shitty scenario is if he lucks out and Drezark is a miller.
Lynching the DT first is still the correct play. I'm going to say fuck the correct play right now, because it all clicked when he claimed. Also now I feel sheepish for thinking Draz is town, but I guess we'll see soon enough.
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On June 30 2011 10:18 youngminii wrote:
FUCK THAT
VIG KILL GM
NO DOUBT, NO HESITATION
kill DT day 1? HAH
Its the logical response dude. EVERY SINGLE VET (that is good) will agree with me here. Its how its done, go see the game where it happened to Ace. Yes he was scum, the logic is still bulletproof.
But go ahead fucking vig me. I dare you.
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On June 30 2011 10:19 Sinani201 wrote:
If Drazerk flips red then the Mafia will surely kill Viscera by tomorrow. It would be too dangerous for them to let him live.
If he is not dead by tomorrow then he is either Mafia or the Mafia is "painting" him red by keeping him alive, in which we give him time for one more supposed investigation before letting a compulsive vig shoot him down.
And if he is scum he'll claim he was rbed, and live in this happy world of "oh I is confirmed town". I'm not going to argue over it, you people aren't going to agree with me, and for today I'm going to fuck the correct play to go with what makes sense to me.
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On June 30 2011 10:22 youngminii wrote:
That last post was directed at anyone who was sheeping along with Viscera's lynch by the way.
Nup, no one will agree with you unless it's a closed setup. Only very special circumstances or game setup would justify a DT lynch, which I still would not agree with.
Have fun dying, you are almost definitely the GF.
How about this then, if I'm not the town vigis you. For giggles.
My first game where I dont die early in a long time and I get this type of shit. Whats hilarious is that if I were scum I would have sheeped the DT the moment he claimed, and let someone else point out that logic, but w/e. Vigi away, it won't change anything, but provide a dead townie.
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On June 30 2011 10:25 GGQ wrote:
Yeah when I said before that I didn't really like any of the lynch candidates, GM was the person I had in my head as my ideal lynch candidate. If no vig is bold enough to shoot him, I hope hatters will at least set their bombs on him.
Your two-faced approach to the 'lynch the dt' policy is just making you seem more scummy to me.
Sure thing. I pointed out what the right approach is, i didn't endorse following it, I merely indicated what it is.
Please Vigi, shoot me tomorrow.
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Can I ask that only one vigi shoot me? I dont want to waste two bullets on me since kills are non-refundable.
That is all, see you all tomorrow, when I flip green. On the bright side, you won't have to worry about arguing my lynch, and remember at least 2 on my vet list are likely scum.
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On June 30 2011 11:08 sandroba wrote:
Don't shoot GM, if he is Scum and made that EXTREMELLY BALSY comment on lynching the DT (which would most likely get him shot) he earned another day of life.
Let'em shoot, the *last* thing this town needs is all of us arguing about me for a whole day, it would be much like the RoL thing in XLII, once the town decides you are scum, innocence and proof is irrelevant. Anyway, all I ask is that we not waste more than one shot, so if the Vigi could have two tabs open and fire and claim at the same time, I would appreciate it, stops him from being rbed and stops more than one vigi from wasting bullets.
thanks!
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On June 30 2011 11:17 youngminii wrote:
Nono, he's martyring himself at this point.
I can't see him EVER doing that as a solid townie who actually wants to win the game. Target identified. Shoot on sight.
Also, RoL played horribly in XLII (sorry RoL!) and you know that. Don't try to bullshit your way out of the situation you created for yourself.
Even your 'advice' to the Vigs is null. Vig shots never overlap, it's ALWAYS first come first serve and you know that.
Not necessarily in real time mafia, and in a couple cases you could figure out.
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On June 30 2011 12:37 sinani206 wrote:
I live in Los Angeles. 22:00 is in 1:24.
Its because RoL put EST in the time tag during Daylight Savings EST becomes EDT, he should probably fix that, but the day ends at 13:00 KST, which is in 20 min.
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Explained by Pyo here I didn't know until he explained it
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Time to claim! I'm a Veteran if only 1 vigi would shoot me to confirm, before the mafia rber has a chance to act, that would be great and would save us a ton of arguing. Hopefully you shot as soon as the flip came up, and I'm dealing with comms lag. If two of you shot, I'm fucked...
GOGOGO, and please claim!
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The lack of firepower aimed at me so far is disappointing. Its been 5 whole minutes and no one has shot me?
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EPT
