TL Mafia XLII
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On June 15 2011 07:19 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
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On June 15 2011 07:10 VisceraEyes wrote:
The idea of this game is to try and determine who is scum through analyzing their behavior, not figuring out how to break the system using power-roles.
The power-roles are there as tools to be used as necessary, not crutches to base our entire game upon.
This message has been brought to you by a noob.
I think I said that 5 posts ago.
On page 9: "Focus on behavioral analysis because there is no way to legitimately break the game set up that doesn't come with considerable risk. . . . .
Focus on behavioral analysis and putting pressure on people, that is how towns have won games in the past, and that's how we will win this game. Making a plan to abuse format is always secondary to behavioral analysis in any set up."
On June 15 2011 04:37 Mig wrote:
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Why is it a huge if that sandroba could be the GF? I assume mafia elects their GF n0, unless they did it before the game. So if they elect the GF tonight then they just propose the plan and make sandroba the GF anytime it looks like the plan will work. So if this were the case anytime sandroba is mafia we would reveal our entire blue list to them.
When is the GF elected?
On June 07 2011 02:18 flamewheel wrote:
Out of the six of you, you may choose two to receive Mafia Power Roles (Godfather or Roleblocker). You may send in your choice[s] at any point in the game, but you will not have access to whatever power you chose until you do send in the notification.
At any point in the game... though I can't think of any logic to explain why they wouldn't do it before the first night ends. Has anyone seen a mafia that waited?
Concerning this zodiac plan, I don't think I really understand why we wouldn't want the insurance-agents (medics) to keep as many of the most experienced players as possible alive for the first day or two and tell them not to attempt to save anyone on that list? The more of those players we keep around, are we not more likely to have a greater number of well-designed posts with strong analysis? Those players are the best at putting pressure and stimulating discussion and analysis.
How do these plans work though if only a few people follow each of them?
sandroba's plan seems overly bizarre and complex to me, I question how much useful and trustworthy information we could gain from it, especially if the majority of the town seems to have already expressed a strong opinion that they will not follow/ignore it.
Rebirthoflegend's attempt to mass up mason-partners should allow him additional analysis of whoever does mason him, even if only half a dozen do so. If he is mafia though? I am wondering how efficient it will be if a large percentage of the town uses one of their two masons on the same, one person, couldn't it limit the ability of the town to disseminate information later on should that person die at some point or turn out to be scum? We shouldn't entirely rely on one person's analysis production obviously. Viscera, did Rebirth actually suggest we leave it just to him? Everyone should be contributing in analysis, those who don't attempt to do so are suspicious, aren't they?
I would not lynch aidnai on the basis of some excited spamming on his birthday or spamming out of boredom. Such a lynch is certainly premature.
The fact that a few people - e.g. Fudge (his only day post was instead agreeing with yminii that jonn was scummy) and grass - have voted for sinani with no real explanation post makes me slightly hesitant to vote for him.
Yet, he jumped to defend his lack of a N0 post by informing us that we should not post at N0 as it only helps mafia -- if you felt so strongly about this, why not tell us at the start of N0 this opinion -- which seems silly to me because what are we supposed to do then just sit around until the D1, we have to start discussion at some point. I don't understand why a town would tell a player not to defend/attempt to debunk an argument against him. It's suspicious that he posted twice on yminii's argument saying essentially the same thing reworded.
On June 16 2011 05:16 sinani206 wrote:Yes, it didn't make any sense to me, and I wish he hadn't waited til 9 hours later to explain what he meant by that post because it made him sound scummy. He seems to be taking his own advice that he gave at the start though, not to defend oneself, 'cept he hasn't carried out the second part of his advice to scumhunt in place of defense. At this current time I am willing to lynch ilj or sinani.
Wait I just realized that what I said doesn't make any sense at all. Carry on.
@mataza, I see that you posted while I am writing this; aidnai already said the exact same thing about me. I am very new, and in my night post I asked a couple questions and rhetorical questions; (I'll try to avoid the '?' key in the future; my earlier day post had none.)
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On June 18 2011 08:45 aidnai wrote:
Tell me who is scum.
@aidnai With my inexperience, I'm not going to claim to know anyone is definitively mafia -- I will post to say what strikes me as particularly suspicious or strange. (I'll post my opinion on hiro after I sleep.)
wiggles and someone else pointed a finger at GGQ on d1, I don't see it yet; he seems to be playing similar to game I played with him before where he was town.
@wiggles, I don't think I was brought as a candidate for lynching except by sandroba, who then retracted saying he had misread my post. Either way, I understand why you'd be bothered by my lack of contribution; it's not intentional.
On grassg and jacinto:
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In my opinion, I would have thought that if grassg or jacinto were mafia, their teammates would have given them better direction by now, but by the same token if they were overwhelmed newb town they could have made some note of that as well. It's suspicious certainly, but they just seem quite inactive or disinterested. On Jacinto, he made his first post in a few different threads before finding the right one, it was a decent enough post, but his second and last post advocated killing lurkers that don't start posting because "if we don't and they happen to be mafia, we're gonna be in trouble" -- that was over 32 hours ago, (I'll admit I got busy and was afk for a similar time period) so maybe he'll still return. But grassg's lack of any real post seems unlikely to change; why didn't he just let himself be modkilled.
FudgeMunkey and RoL had an extensive exchange at the start where Fudge told people not to mason RoL (or mason in general til later in the game). Then: + Show Spoiler +
Then the "KP" posts, (I thought it was pretty evident that in the context KP meant kenpachi), so either Fudge is scum and saw an opportunity to get a free falsely-"helpful" post in by answering a question that wasn't actually what was asked, or he completely was not reading before posting which is a really bad decision. I can understand why he apologized, but it was scummy in the sense that the 3 long quotes were totally unnecessary to making his edit other than distraction. What bothers me the most about FudgeM is "To be completely honest I voted for Sinani because I hadn't had time to read all the posts, so yes i was 'stealth voting'". Why would a town cast a vote for (at the time) a major lynch candidate without fully reading up first; that's horrible! Should we read this as, a scum who knows sinani is town (not that I'm sure sinani is town or not), or was told by his accomplices to cast this vote, even though he hasn't had time to actually read the thread?
On June 15 2011 15:59 FudgeMunkey wrote:
Yes, I agree with 'youngminii'...
It seems as if the 'scum' never seem to support a strategy and instead find ways to make it look like its incorrect/false or just plain stupid...
They hope to make it look like the person there arguing with is obviously Scum rather than townie or Blue.
@FudgeM: + Show Spoiler +
No, I was suggesting that it was scummy for you to make a place-holder vote on a real candidate -- if you were worried about being modkilled before catching up on the thread you should have made an actual place-holder vote not jumped on someone who was on the chopping block at the time. Besides, there was still have the day cycle left wasn't there.
hiro p: + Show Spoiler +
Honestly, his initial posts don't strike at any of my funny bones, and no one else seems suspicious of him until his grassg vote. He was suspicious of townie impervious. I guess his rationale was that his vote was a pressure vote since he thought grass was town, But I'm not sure how you pressure-vote an obvious inactive lurker with only 4.5hr before lynch; that's just either silliness not realizing the time, or a scum excuse to vote for a town. "holy s-, lol" -> that was a pointless post. He defends this action and claims he wants ILJ or grass to show up and start posting so he can vote for the other -- in the end ilj did show up and he switched his vote to him and ilj flipped town. sandroba is the first to really accuse hiro's grass vote of being clear-scum, but it sort of seems to ignore the prior posts on the matter. But sandroba was right to point that doesn't make sense for a town to put a number like 90% on the feeling that grass is an inactive town, they might feel like he is a newb inactive town but only a mafia would really try to gain the cred of predicting grass flipping town, unless he dt-ed grass N0 or was pm-ed that grass was clean. Had ilj or grass flipped mafia then I would have been inclined to think mafia was trying to bring hiro in as a new savior bandwagon at the end of the day, but this was not the case (though grass still hasn't flipped).
It seemed strange to me that sandroba was repetitively so actively harping on this one line by hiro for the last quarter of the day -- viscera asked sandroba to campaign on more than just the one line and convince us, but sandroba didn't -- could sandroba have been worried about saving grass? If hiro flips scum, I'll be very suspicous of viscera for this + Show Spoiler +
which doesn't make sense to my understanding of English. aidnai and viscera tell us that hiro has done many other scummy things... and then we wait to see those listed by Varpulis, whose analysis is pretty convincingly written; aidnai's is as well.
On June 17 2011 08:17 VisceraEyes wrote:
It's not even THAT huge of a scum-slip, man. By saying he's "90% sure he's town" he could be expressing his disinterest in lynching an inactive...or expressing his certainty that HIS choice for a lynch is scum...it could be interpreted so many ways, I don't see how YOU can't see THAT.
What gets me is when ilj dies and hiro starts defending himself against these two analyses, he says "I was right" and that "I still feel it should have been Grass on the lynch", suddenly out of nowhere he doesn't think grass is a "board townie" anymore, but he didn't vote for grass or try to convince people to switch to grass from ilj.
Either hiro is desperately trying to stay alive by claiming to be town, or when he flips town we will have to wonder about the ones who initially implicated him but such will be called wine.
As for RoL, I understand the desire to be rid of him, he certainly seems to be throwing the game and by getting rid of him we either rid us of scum or at the least someone holding the town hostage with strange disinterested attitude. For now, I'll vote for RoL until he changes his attitude, then I'll reevaluate whether to switch.
On June 20 2011 05:53 LandenC wrote:
Catching up on the thread and working on a post. Might have to head out for an hour or two so wanted to get my vote in incase i get tied up.
This is the exact type of behavior that fudgeM did on Day1 that really bothered me. Does anyone else feel that if you are still getting caught up but worried about missing the deadline you should vote for someone who isn't a major candidate until you are finally caught up? It feels scummy to me; how can you--Landen--feel comfortable potentially casting a deciding vote before you are up to date on events?
Honestly, my brain doesn't even work right now. I apologize for that but this week I've been exhausted by 12-hours days as a camp counselor. I think that both Varpulis and Wiggles are town, so I'm going to vote with them against ym who led us wrong on prior lynch candidates. (Also ym is asking for my death, but I know I'm town.) That's bad logic, but it's the best my mind can do right now.