EPTSurprisingly Normal Mini Mafia III - Page 2
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
We have something to work with now, but sadly not enough. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
On June 06 2011 11:33 youngminii wrote: Don't know if I'm the best cop check. I think it may be safe to play the next day or two assuming I'm town, no? I mean unless you really think my play is really scummy, but there's definitely better people to check imo, especially: Palmar. He's nearing the top of my scum list but there's a little voice in the back of my head telling me he's just a crappy town player. If we can get a cop to check him I'd be a lot more reassured. You see, either the bad town player is you, or you're scum. I did my switch sufficiently early that Kavdragon and Varpulis could've swung the vote. That is exactly what I was hoping would happen. I generally am against killing people that roleclaim day 1, because even if that might potentially save mafia, then they're forced into lying, and lying always invites the opportunity to slip. We could confirm him in so many ways tonight, cop check, vigi shot etc. I think killing him was the right thing to do, up until he claimed Veteran. It's very easy for the mafia sway a vote in the wrong direction on day one, so I figured that the Sinani train came way too easily, that coupled with his vet claim made me switch. I still don't know where I stand on the Mataza issue, I have a hard time reading that guy. Remember that while my switch to ON could be seen as a way of distancing myself from the vote, this post by Kavdragon does basically the same thing for him. On June 06 2011 10:51 Kavdragon wrote: So I'll be honest here. I saw giant bandwagon on a player who had no one really defending them. That is a town tell for me. Don't get me wrong, I think that sinari looks scummy, but that big of a landslide of votes is not going to happen to a mafia player. So I was going to press for Original Name, becaues he was lurking back and not posting much other than defence. This claim (which sinani's been painfully obviously hinting at for the since he asked if a vet could be lynched) is changing things. If I were mafia, and I was about to be lynched, I would 100% claim vet. It's not confirmable unless you are shot, and obviously the mafia isn't going to shoot their own member. After they claim vet they have an excuse to be alive for the rest of the game "Because the mafia know that I am a vet". In short, the vet claim makes me think more than anything that Sinani is scum. I think I think that the vet claim is a last ditch attempt to save their own, and by the looks of it it's going pretty well. ##Unvote ##Vote Sinani JeeJee correctly pointed out that Sinani had soft-claimed vet already through his question to GMarshal. At the moment I feel JeeJee is pro-town. I guess we will see if we have any information come day-break. This'll be interesting. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
ON's defense is really shitty in my opinion, claiming that he's always bad at town is just... not how you should defend yourself. I need to re-read a bit, will have a big post coming up later. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
I agree that OriginalName is very scummy at the moment. The main thing that sticks out to me is him insisting he always plays bad town. I always find it very suspicious when people play the "I'm bad" card (or the more popular alternative, "I'm new") as their defense. Instead of commenting on some meta, why not step up your game and actually provide an alternative. If you are town you now have the responsibility to explain why you are not scum, and try to tell us why you should not be lynched. ##Vote OriginalName | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
I thought I already explained the reasoning, but luckily you managed to miss the post, because actually including it in your analysis would hurt it. Here's a link to help you: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=9639518 I couldn't finish up my post today, I will post it tomorrow, but I'm travelling to norway. I will probably only be online around 4-8 hours before the vote. I will mostly not be able to be online from now and until evening (20:00-ish GMT) tomorrow. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
So here's what I think about the current situation. My biggest suspicion at the moment sits on youngminii. I have a real problem with the way he approaches this game. He keeps threatening people with shortlists, while I think it's common knowledge that the best way for the town to function is getting independent opinions and drawing conclusions from that. You see, I know it sounds crazy, but I have a weird hunch that if we flip ON, we will actually catch a scum. And I think he's being bussed. His defense is so weak, his attack on me is an attempt, but a weak one at that, on someone that he knew would be hard to get support for. Everything in the situation, from youngminii's absolute confidence that sinani206 would flip town, to his very confident calling of roles, smells of some kind of a plan. Youngminii is the person I have problems with at the moment, and I would like to flip him. I'm putting my vote on him. but I will stay awake for a while, as I don't mind flipping ON either. I think his defense is weak, I think his arguments is weak and I think he smells of scum. I know it seems weird, but if ON gets flipped, I'm going after youngminii, no matter if the flip is red or green. unichan and stefftastiq are still being kind of inactive and not putting together any theories or analysis. I think we should urge them to step up and get more work done for town. I'm not sure what to think of Kavdragon. I still think Varpulis and JeeJee are pro-town, but that might change. I don't like the fact that JeeJee went for kavdragon over youngminii, but I'm pretty sure I can't control that. I'm going to try to get youngminii lynched tonight, my second post will contain my analysis of him. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
On June 05 2011 03:29 youngminii wrote: Originalname you shouldn't be speaking for palmar. Let him speak for himself and we'll judge how scummy his actions/response is. I mean by speaking for him it kind of looks like you're helping him, and it's way too early to be defending people, considering we have almost no information. As for the vet claiming, I'm all for it if the entire town can get behind it. If the vet is a liar, I think we'll figure it out eventually as the days go on. If the vet dies first night because of a roleblock + hit, then we'll know that there is a roleblocker in the game. I don't see the downsides outweighing the advantages to this. Very Minor Scumtell: He agrees to a plan that is bad for town. Claiming vet early is just not a good idea, I don't understand how disabling someone's role for a 50/50 chance of getting town is justifiable. It's like asking for a townie claim on day one, except, asking for a townie claim would be a better idea. Still, being wrong isn't a crime. But there's more coming youngminii had a little row with me on day 1. Most of it was him defending sinani, while I was attacking sinani. Thing is, I don't believe that prior to sinani soft-claiming veteran, that anything sinani said was strong enough to absolve him of being scum. My analysis was basically that all he had done for town was posting lists and randomly voting an inactive, which cannot be a flawed analysis. The entire situation smells of youngminii knowing something that he shouldn't know. On June 06 2011 10:28 youngminii wrote: Guys if you won't listen to logic, can you at least listen to math? IF, IF Sinani is vet, then we will be losing a pretty big town power role. Honestly, do you really want to risk that instead of waiting one more day for a confirmation? Most, if not all, of the mafia would definitely agree with the lynch on Sinani (assuming he is vet). Don't get caught up in the bandwagoning imo. man if sinani ends up being scum i'm never gonna play mafia ever again This is actually a good post, at the point this is written I had stated repeatedly that I thought youngminii was town. I agreed with this reasoning, I switched my vote. And somehow youngminii decided that those actions made me scum, and cleared him. It's basically backwards reasoning. He defended a player that had no defense. He then goes rampant when we lynch him, as it will somehow make him immune to suspicion. Everything about youngminii's play smells of someone who knows too much for his own good. On June 06 2011 11:03 youngminii wrote: sinani, you played pretty terribly, not for the reasons everyone else is saying (well kinda) you should definitely have a bit more content in your posts, you made yourself a very, very easy target. you shouldn't EVER give up with a "whatever" attitude, you should be defending yourself to the end. your entire defence was mounted by me, and that's just unacceptable. you can't rely on having someone else risk their reputation to save you just because they think you're not scum. you have to mass appeal to everyone else. in any case, this sucks. palmar and prplhz on huge fos because they (warning: theory) both tried to absolve themselves in the end, realising that they were about to lynch a vet and didn't want to have their hands covered in blood Seriously? you make a bad defense for him, and then you attack the people that still rally to your side when Sinani206 actually defends himself by posting a tiny bit of content and claiming vet. On June 06 2011 12:11 youngminii wrote: Well I mean, if the town is coordinating the detective check, mafia is probably going to (OH GOD I'M GONNA MAKE WIFOM) kill the person we agree to check. I mean if they don't, they're just stupid. In any case, I'm going to lean on the fact that I defended sinani from the start to remove any suspicions on me for now. I don't know exactly why you think I'm suspicious and I don't really want to know right now (in favour of other discussion) so try to look at the fact that I defended sinani, sinani flipped blue, and postpone your suspicion on me. I think the general consensus is to check Palmar for now, hopefully it turns out to be eventful. @OriginalName I think Mataza is pretty scummy and flying under the radar to be honest, no point in acting on this yet though. Thanks for absolving yourself of any suspicion. This is the first post that actually made me start re-thinking about it. I know he attacks Mataza who ends up getting murdered. youngminii also agrees with originalname here, although I'm not sure what this means. Early day 2, youngminii starts out by voting for originalname. This is important for later. Here is the post that made me go... oooohhhh noo. That's just not cool On June 08 2011 06:32 youngminii wrote: Funny how if we actually went through with the plan we wouldn't have lost our vet, but that's just derailment and I won't discuss that. Kav, don't flame him like that during the game. Leave that for endgame discussion. At this point, anyone that's not voting for ON will obviously be put under scrutiny if he flips red. @Dementrio: Yes I've backed off Palmar quite a bit, steff/unichan/prplhz are all scum candidates too. My gut tells me steff is just an overeager town, but that could apply to both the others too. @Prplhz: Your pressure against Varpulis is stupid. None of those reasons are scumworthy and you are guilty of the last line of reasoning yourself. I kind of don't like how you're just completely avoiding voting for ON, but I mean if you both really were scum you'd probably be trying to lynch an actual lynch candidate instead of randomly pressuring Varpulis. What vexes me right now is that other than ON, the highest number of votes on anyone is 1. Either scum knows ON is done for and is bussing him or they're extremely uncoordinated. I don't like how unichan and JeeJee are abstaining their votes until later, they could be just waiting until the last moment in case another lynch candidate pops up. I'm going to say JeeJee's doing this out of bad play, and unichan is the more suspicious one. Note: Palmar has posted contentless content again for the past few posts. Keep an eye on him. I have a huge problem with the "agree with me or you're scum" approach. If you take the thinking away from people and hand the reins over to some kind of a leader, the you're not doing the town any good. The only way to catch scum is for everyone to chime in and explain their reasons. Note: you're actually advocating bandwagoning. You're trying to take an unjustified leadership in town. and finally, just a minor contradiction: On June 09 2011 06:15 youngminii wrote: You're absolutely right JeeJee, I don't disagree with your vote against Kav. Personally however, I think it is a misguided attempt at trying to find scum just because you think ON's lynch isn't justified. I'm still of the belief that ON's lynch will give us more information than lynching anyone else can. I also think he's the most scummy in the town right now. If he flips green, I promise I'll support you in getting some answers from Kav. I never said "lol get some coaching" was a valid response, in fact I told Kav not to say that type of stuff in game because it doesn't contribute anything towards scumhunting and just makes you look weaker to the newcomers when a more experienced player says it. This may very well be true, but there is another option. Misguided town. If ON flips red I won't be blaming you because you do have the right intentions. He ragged on me earlier for wanting to lynch for information, yet he claims that's a good reason to lynch ON now? Also, the "I'm not blaming you if he flips red" is one of those things that I just don't like. Conditional reasoning for suspecting people. This still gives me the feeling he knows too much. I have scum feel about youngminii. ##Vote youngminii | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
wrong format btw: ##Unvote OriginalName ##Vote youngminii | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
Why don't you too? | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
Assuming the mafia hits tonight, we're in LYLO tomorrow with 5v3 people left in the game. That means that if we don't hit a mafia in the lynch, then we're out. (barring doctor saves etc). Thing is, being 4v3 during daytime is not actually worse than being 5v3, because both are lylo situations. We have to lynch correctly tomorrow no matter what. If we have a vigilante in the game, I would like to ask you to take a shot tonight. I'm not going to try to steer your shot, all the information is out there in the thread. But from a pure statistical point of view, we should shoot tonight, cause we're in LYLO anyway tomorrow. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
On June 09 2011 23:07 prplhz wrote: Okay Palmar's plan is actually not terrible this time. If there is a vigilante he should seriously consider shooting somebody, a hit will be awesome and a miss will not be too terrible. If there is a cop he should also strongly consider claiming, depending on what information he's got so far. Also, were noone roleblocked on day1? In SNMMII no roleblocker meant only one blue role for town. I seriously doubt that there is a vig or a cop (and almost certain that we don't have both). So do not rely on them people, we may just have to do the scumhunting ourselves. I may be away for the first part of day1 but I'm almost certainly here for a good part of the rest of it. Just a little strategy pointer. If there is no roleblocker we probably don't have BOTH cop and doc, but we might very well have either, because all the roleblocker does is stop the doc from protecting the cop. And yes, of course my plan isn't bad this time. Remember, this is my third game of mafia, and I decided to see what'd happen if I suggested a bad plan, see if it'd somehow help us out the mafia. Another thing to keep in mind. We're in LYLO tomorrow. Even if we have a cop and he investigates an innocent again, he _should_ out himself if, (and only if) we're pushing for a lynch on another townie. Better out yourself than losing the game. If however the cop has found 2 innocents, and neither of them is up for the lynch, then by all means hold your silence cop. Anyway, we'll see what day brings. Vigilante, you should shoot tonight. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
we'll have shit to discuss in the morning | ||
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Palmar
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On June 10 2011 04:40 Kavdragon wrote: less activity during the night is a myth invented by mafia in every game. More content to analyse is better for town. What's bad about it? In other news, I have a vig target! Dementrio has 5 posts in this game and is lurking hardcore. He comes in posts once or twice, then leaves and doesn't come back till the next vote. I didn't mean we should talk less during the night. I meant there simply is less to talk about. In my case, I voted for youngminii. I was wrong on originalname, that doesn't make me wrong on youngminii, which is a case I will probably follow through with tomorrow. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
We know there was a vigi shot, stefftastiq claimed it and no one is counterclaiming, so I'm gonna assume he is green. I know myself is green and I have no clue about kavdragon. We're in lynch or lose situation, but 3 out of the 7 targets remaining are scum. I think those three are kavdragon, prplhz and unichan. prplhz has contributed nothing to the game, there will be a full analysis coming up at some point during this day. But I don't think anyone can argue he has done something even remotely useful for town. ##Vote prplhz | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
I have absolutely nothing to base my vote on because I don't know how to play fucking town. I'm completely useless at this analysis thing. Stefftastiq and I are clear (in my eyes of course) That leaves me 5 people to look at. I think JeeJee is clear so that leaves four. three of the four are mafia. Unichan Prplhz Kavdragon Dementrio. The first threee is my best bet, but again, I have lost every ounce of confidence I had in trying to find mafia. So I'm just randomly guessing prplhz. I'll be fine with going for eiher Kavdragon or Unichan too. Actually, I'm just going to sheep behind whomever stefftastiq votes. | ||
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Palmar
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We need the 4 town votes on the same person anyway. I already suggested three people, but in the end, I don't trust myself. | ||
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Palmar
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I still think unichan and prplhz are the other two mafia. I would ask for a vig shot on unichan tonight. | ||
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