EPTOn May 17 2011 12:33 citi.zen wrote:
Hi! Enjoying the show, I presume?
Pick Your Power Insane! - Page 3
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Hi! Enjoying the show, I presume? | ||
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On May 17 2011 12:40 Kavdragon wrote: Of course FW didn't have a nuke. That was obvious to me from the moment that i saw incog request it. If they were communicating out of thread, then why would they be talking about it in thread? I 100% doubt that Incog thought FW had america either. It was all just a play to put pressure on GMarshal, something that I think was a good idea as he is one of the easier players to read. I would agree with this if Incog had a case before an accusation, like the horse before the cart. Instead, he just threw around accusations on players without any explanation at all. If I simply want players to talk more, there are certainly less aggressive/suspicious ways to do so. | ||
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On May 17 2011 10:31 Eiii wrote: Oh man, decon just made himself the perfect placeholder vote candidate. Or maybe even a good lynch candidate! :D You haven't been posting much, and you suddenly appear to simply bandwagon deconduo. Generally, placeholder votes are put on yourself, by the way; right now, it looks like you're just voting without caring who you're voting for. The lynch is important. It's a reliable way to weed out mafia, given that people vote intelligently. What is your reason for voting deconduo? Do you believe he is mafia? (If not, who are you watching?) | ||
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On May 17 2011 12:54 Kavdragon wrote: + Show Spoiler + Draft Order: 1. Flamewheel [3][3] 2. Scamp [7][11] 3. Caller [10][4] 4. Barundar [13][1] 5. Radfield 6. GMarshal [17][1] 7. Deconduo 8. Foolishness[1][1] 9. bumatlarge [1][18] 10. Kavdragon [2][1] 11. Chaoser [2][2] 12. Fishball [5][3] 13. KillerSOS[5][11] 14. Eiii [6][7] 15. Infinitestory [6][10] 16. Dreamflower [4][1] 17. Mr.Wiggles [4][2] 18. Original Name[4][6] 19. tnkted [4][12] 20. Chezinu [4][x] 21. Ace [9][11] 22. Kurumi [9][13] 23. Incognito[9][1] 24. Node [9][1] 25. kitaman27 [9][1] Is anyone else still wondering why all the 4's are behind the 5's and 6's? I thought about it, and I figured that it's because there were more 4s (5 of them to be exact), and that this was just not obvious from the example given. | ||
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On May 17 2011 13:17 Kavdragon wrote: Yes, but I've not been doing it at the same time. I pressured Node, and got a reaction: Two people also pressured him, and for the most part people didn't have that big of a problem with it. Node disappeared. I moved on. I called caller out on some stuff, and then pressured Mr.Wiggles. People started getting angry about the finger pointing. That's a reaction. I gained information from it. This makes me think that the mafia are getting uncomfortable with the finger pointing that's going on. Am I wrong? Random finger pointing is better for mafia than town, since it obscures legitimate arguments/reads and generally raises hell. I'd rather not do the mafia's job for them. I'd prefer a concentrated argument with logic behind it to four random accusations with no reasoning. | ||
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On May 18 2011 06:30 Barundar wrote: tnkted you can't vote for yourself, if you want to placehold you have to do it on someone else :/ I'm probably going to vote incognito, Ace makes the most sense to me. Got an hour before bed to see if anything changes. whoa holy- I apologize Eiii, it appears you read the rules better than I. On May 18 2011 07:02 bumatlarge wrote: Woah chez I read those games again, you have to PM me to tell me how to properly play like your mad right this instance. mfw PMs | ||
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Is your criteria for mafia "anyone who disagrees with me"? | ||
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On May 18 2011 13:03 Kavdragon wrote: Just got home hope this isn't late. In response to Incog's comparison of this game to XXXVIII: I got lynched. The guy who I was sure was mafia wasn't Mafia. Neither were you. Do you honestly expect me to repeat that same behavior? Also, since I won't be able to post this after my death: All newer players, please take note of the fact that Incog, Ace, and Caller all read me wrong. Vet's are not as good as anyone thinks, including themselves. The only thing you should be afraid of is their egos. Uhh, you're not leading in votes right now. In any case, I think this meta behavioral analysis that people have been badgering Kavdragon with is not a solid foundation for a case. Kavdragon's posts have sounded very genuine (key word here) to me, even if they've contained some bad arguments at times. | ||
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On May 18 2011 13:08 Node wrote: At the very least, we've got a pretty good split for the vote-checker.  If he exists. Day 1 is the worst time to draw premature conclusions. There are a lot of people here who are heavily depending on roles (especially the mafia 2 det) to carry the day. | ||
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Incognito leads in lynch votes with less than 3 hours left in Day 1. Ace unvotes Incognito, switching to Radfield. Suddenly, 3 more votes on Kavdragon. I feel like this is suspicious, but it also reeks of WIFOM. | ||
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On May 18 2011 14:05 chaoser wrote: woah woah wtf @ switch from incognito to Kavdragon. if you think that's weird, check out the votes after Ver's last vote tally | ||
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On May 18 2011 14:30 Incognito wrote: Anyone is not a good answer. Name someone specific please. Ooh! Pick me! | ||
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On May 18 2011 16:16 Barundar wrote: Well I miscalculated the night post and wrote my will 1½ instead of ½ an hour before lynch. In the meantime someone goes and switch the lynch to a third person. GG, would have been better to let me hang so you could go after suspicious votes on me like KillerSOS and Kitaman. You mean we can't do that now? | ||
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On May 19 2011 09:45 Radfield wrote: Well we need to talk about something. Here's some interesting tidbits: Everytime I read the name Chaoser, I pronounce it Chowsah in my head... Instead of seeing Infinitestory, I read Infestory. Like a pantry, but infested. Sorry for ruining your pantry  I’ve been thinking about the way the town was spread all over the place in the last lynch. There were some very lonely votes, but there’s no reason to brand them as suspicious outright. In fact, I’d say that what happened is there were way too many targets being discussed for lynch, and people voted for which of the analyses seemed most correct. And damn, were there a lot of them. Of course, this doesn’t apply to the placeholder votes of tnkted and Mr. Wiggles. On the whole, though, the reason for the wide vote spread is the sheer number of suspects being discussed. It was just a matter of who was discussed the most. I’m certainly disoriented. There are a lot of arguments, but I don’t think I’ve seen a single cohesive argument that focuses on more than one piece of evidence (my own included – although I have even more reason to suspect Incognito based on the last 24 hours). As people have said (and I think Incog said this too), the mafia doesn’t really care about the Day 1 lynch. And they didn’t really need to do anything to the votes, since we were so disorganized and decentralized that the lynch was pretty RNG, based on who was accused the loudest (read: Kavdragon) With that said, here goes nothing. Incognito Not impressed with the number of people who see Incognito talking a lot and assume he’s town. On May 14 2011 13:31 Incognito wrote: Whoops I meant only KillerSOS is mafia. Node is fine. For now. Fifth post in thread. This was a whole 4 days ago. I still don’t know why Incognito could possibly gather enough to call out KillerSOS so early. The key point is the timing here. KillerSOS, at this point, has just a few posts himself, and I doubt Incognito could have gathered enough for such a sure statement. We’ll never know, though, since Incog NEVER gave his logic for this scum read. Even though I asked at least once. On May 16 2011 14:20 Incognito wrote: Flamewheel please nuke GMarshal. Thanks. ##Vote Kurumi To beat the dead horse here, but only for the sake of completeness: 1) GMarshal accusation. Out of nowhere, again. 2) Kurumi vote. Out of nowhere, again. 3) Claims FW has nukes. Out of nowhere, again. This is definitely false, seeing as I’m still here. Kurumi’s posts, up to this point, have sounded very pro-town, I believe. He’s been consistently putting his thoughts forward in full and making a very strong effort to explain them. On May 17 2011 07:04 Incognito wrote:+ Show Spoiler + On May 17 2011 05:14 Foolishness wrote: And as someone already pointed out, the obscene amount of number collisions on the bottom half of the draft give way to the idea that most mafia are probably in the top half. Hmm, who was that someone? Oh wait, it was me! On May 17 2011 05:46 GMarshal wrote: KillerSOS So, I did a search of all his posts in order to find any posts that were relevant to analyze, looking for something juicy. There is exactly nothing, he has posted nothing but one liners. I'll pull out the ones that seem relevant, but theres *nothing* there. Here are some examples of his great contributions + Show Spoiler [great contributions!] + On May 14 2011 10:28 KillerSOS wrote: Well I'm going with two mid range numbers. Dare you to guess them. Completely irrelevant post, also not true he picked [5] IIRC, which is not really midrange, usless post On May 15 2011 17:03 KillerSOS wrote: I like how 13 was near the top. Interesting. Contribution = 0 On May 16 2011 16:15 KillerSOS wrote: I also believe that clashes in numbers won't be that useful this early in the game. I'm sure that the mafia are smart enough to grab some top slots, while at the same time randomizing the other half of their members. First game relevant post, and all it does is shoot down a decent idea, without actually contributing anything, bravo, so far my "lurker" radar is going nuts. On May 17 2011 03:10 KillerSOS wrote: I think it's fairly obvious that you are just spitting out nonsense. Would you like to explain yourself? People are accusing me, quickly demand an explanation of why they think that my 8 posts are all contentless one liners! KillerSOS is lurking, and I've made my stance on lurkers clear in the past, hang them all! ##Vote KillerSOS Get in here and contribute or hang by the neck till dead, I'd rather you did the former, but if you refuse I have no issue hanging you for it. There are way worse posters than KillerSOS. And suddenly you want to hang him? This is so random...oh wait... Flamewheel, seriously just nuke this duder. To all of you voting me, just think how I could possibly be mafia for a second. I come out and post about the vote rigger/list check combo, that apparently nobody else was even thinking about. There is absolutely no reason for me to do this as mafia. So what's the explanation for my weird play? I'm in Chicago for the weekend. Ver/Foolishness/Flamewheel all know this. I don't have the time I need to play a proper Day 1 (which unfortunately is one of the most crucial parts of the game), but I should be able to play seriously starting tomorrow after I finish my midterm. Bumatlarge is also on the right track. Chaoser is a good vote too. Actually, wait, a better vote than Kurumi. I'll put Chaoser as 85% mafia. ##Vote Chaoser We can only check one list at a time, and while checking a small list is much more helpful, I see no reason why the voterigger needs to get involved to create one. If he messes with the votes, then we lose most of the information we would have gotten from the voting that cycle. If the voterigger is mafia, the worst he can mess us up is if he places and equal amount of mafia on each list. What we don't want is overlapping lists. Vote rigger does this most effectively. I mean, for all I care vote rigger can wait till the last second to use his power and give us the entire 48 hours to debate. We should still be good even if he uses his power. Also we can check more than one list at a time. Night 1 inventor should give a vote checking kit to a trusted townie who isn't likely to die tonight (*hint* - pick me). That gives us 2 instant list checks by day 2. To all of you whining about how we should stop focusing on list checks and start scumhunting, I disagree. Partially. We should do both. Scumhunting obviously takes priority, but we shouldn't neglect vote list checks. Although the situation currently isn't ideal, it is by no means terrible. There's plenty of time left in the day and already things are beginning to pop up. List of invisible posters: GMarshal Kurumi Radfield tnkted Anyways, got a plane to catch now. 17 hours later, apparently there are a lot worse posters than KillerSOS, and a vote on him WITH LOGIC is apparently enough for a FoS? Vacillation. Now there’s a theme you should keep in mind (for reference, vacillation means actively shifting back and forth on something.) Other things of note in this post: Foolishness Chaoser is suddenly a better vote than Kurumi. Another switch. Of course, this one I can understand, since I don’t know if he had any real logic against Kurumi anyway. Oh wait, another trend! Incog also mentions that he’s been busy, which is the reason for his inactivity. I buy this. What I don’t buy is how he managed to spew out so many reads already (KillerSOS red, GMarshal red, Kurumi scummy, Chaoser red, Foolishness green, so 5) without having the time to do this carefully. Around the point of this post, I started feeling that Incognito was definitely holding back, doing a lot of thinking out loud without thinking out loud. On the other hand, also here is the one piece of evidence I have that points toward a green Incognito: how incredibly hard he tunnels on the vote rigger-m2dt plan. So hard, in fact, that he misses the obvious way for a mafia vote rigger to screw everything up: rig it so everyone votes for the same target. On May 17 2011 16:21 Incognito wrote: Thesis: There is little mafia interference in the thread, and the mafia are playing very passively. Most of the active posters are likely to be town. I also believe that the thief is not an active role in this game. Due to the way the numbers turned out, it is likely that the mafia got enough top spots that they don’t need to steal roles. Also now that I’ve read Radfield’s posts (yes, I ignored them before), he’s likely town. But he’s still useless and so should be ignored. I repeat, Inventor should hand out a vote checking kit. This is by far better than bulletproof vests, bulletproof kits, or gunpowder detectors. Deconduo's vote actually makes sense. Stop trying to kill him. It is clear that some people are trying to push a sort of policy lynch. Please stop knee-jerk reacting and think for a moment before trying to lop off my head. Contrary to popular belief, mafia really have no reason to point fingers everywhere. Unless one of their own candidates is leading the vote and they desperately need an alternative. Really its up to the town to figure out the first lynch, so mafia could care less if town doesn't have any leads. Mafia is unlikely to have picked copycat, as thief is far superior. So really there's no reason to save Scamp if you think he's red. Which, makes sense if you read his posts. Radfield, from the start, has not been useless. His taboo role list was publicized enough that I hope every townie at least considered it, and therefore it’ll help us later on by greatly amplifying the power of the role check (heh). How could you possibly have ignored Radfield’s posts? Yet another trend: Incognito, in many of his posts, has been trying to lead the town toward role-based thinking rather than focused scumhunting. On May 18 2011 08:32 Incognito wrote:+ Show Spoiler + Everyone should be giving an opinion of me right now If you look at the thread, you'll notice that only a handful of people are popping up to accuse/defend me so far. Given how loud Ace et al are talking, I find it ridiculous that some people are popping in here without actually weighing in on this. We have people like GMarshal, who has said nothing of significance. Also Kavdragon, who has this strange fixation to defending himself without saying anything about me or pushing an alternative. Am I really that invisible? I hope not. Everyone who pretends I am invisible just wants to avoid being accountable for any sort of position. This is not something you can be unsure about. My posting this game has been so out of style that you MUST have something to say about it. The mafia want to avoid making an opinion. They want me dead, but they don't want to make it look obvious when they know I'll flip green. Some townies are naturally going to refrain from giving an opinion. After all, reading a few of my posts out there, I am pretty intimidating. But really, there's no reaso to be shy. Get out here and give your opinion. There is no reason to avoid this topic. Step 1: Identify town focus discussion - done. Its me. There are 2 discussion points that should be discussed from here on out. 1. There is now a referendum on Incognito. Everyone must weigh in. 2. Get the vote rigger to rig the votes if possible. If not, we need to do this ourselves. 1. It should be fairly obvious by now that I am town. Read over my posts again. The only real accusation against me is that I'm trying to cause chaos, therefore I'm mafia. But this post should put an end to that, because I'm basically calling a trial on myself and trying to consolidate the lynch. All this "lynch incognito because he is random voting" is bad reasoning. Mafia is a game about thinking. Choosing the easy way out by just policy lynching people who's play you don't like is sadly bad play in itself, even if Ace thinks he is awesome because of it. Also, sadly for us, policy lynching allows mafia to blend in with zealous pro-policy-lynch townies. 2. Here's why vote rigger should rig today's vote instead of just "spreading votes around a few candidates" to make checks. If we just "spread votes around", mafia have the luxury of being able to spread their votes out among the candidates and remain relatively safe from the vote checks. Secondly, the benefit of using the vote rigger is that we can separate the suspicious people from the innocents. Vote rigger doesn't randomly spread votes around. He places the more suspicious people on one list, while putting the strongest innocents on one list. If he did his job well, there is a strong possibility that the "innocents" list will show up with no mafia, thus giving us a big lead. Everyone stop freaking out about the vote rigger being anti-town. If the vote rigger is mafia obviously they're going to try to screw us up with it. Although it would be kinda difficult to do so. But if the vote rigger is town, what is there to fear? In any case, since we don't know if we have a vote rigger or not, we need to ensure that we get roughly good vote check lists in the event that we do not have a vote rigger, or he decides not to cooperate with us. So here are my proposed lines: Kavdragon - This list will consist of likely townies Caller Incognito Flamewheel Foolishness bumatlarge Radfield GMarshal Kurumi Ace tnkted infinitestory Dreamflower Deconduo KillerSOS Scamp - This list will consist of lurkers Chezinu Eiii OriginalName Fishball kitaman27 Chezinu - This list will consist of suspicious people Node Scamp GMarshal chaoser Barundar Kavdragon Key points to note: My posting this game has been so out of style Wait, I thought your inactivity was due to not having time for the game? You must certainly think your posting is out of the ordinary. I haven’t played a game with Incog before, so I don’t actually know if this is true. On the list of suspicious people is GMarshal + every other target brought up by the town at this point. I don’t know if Incognito really held all of these people in suspicion (which would be vacillation yet again), or he was trying to speak for the entire town. I’ll give the benefit of the doubt and say the latter. He posts revisions of these lists a couple more times later on. Lastly, Incog seems unusually convinced that he's the center of attention, being watched closely enough to be generally suspicious. I'm very sad that this referendum wasn't followed, actually. Oh wait. That's because, in the next hour, these two posts pop up, with Kavdragon's name in big red letters (unlike the rightful green letters). On May 18 2011 08:45 Incognito wrote: Excellent post. Maybe I should change GMarshal to Barundar for the vote list checks. Note that GMarshal occupied the spot with the most votes behind it. In other words, vacillation. On May 18 2011 09:29 Incognito wrote: For the sake of completeness, lets compare Kavdragon's play in XXXVIII and this game to XXXIV (Pokemafia). In Pokemafia, Kavdragon comes up with a long LSB accusation. Nice and all, except that he doesn't follow up. A few posts later, almost nothing is mentioned about LSB, and he goes off to vote some other random person. Compare to this game, where Kavdragon makes an accusation on Node, and then lets it get buried in the thread. Now I'm 100% certain Kavdragon will be lynched, so here's my suggestion. Keep the votes close among the 4 candidates, with Kavdragon in the lead. If any "save Kavdragon" agenda appears to be occuring, everyone has my full blessing to ignore the assigned vote lists and ensure that Kavdragon is lynched. This has been pointed out as well. The argument against Kavdragon was very shallow, but it was blown up excessively. I’m not even going to hold Kavdragon’s green flip against Incog. This argument is based on very flimsy logic, and it really makes a mountain of a molehill. On May 18 2011 12:03 Incognito wrote: My analysis is an extension of Caller's analysis. It is not all based on meta considerations. Mafia want to make it look like they're contributing without actually contributing. They want to look like they're being aggressive townies without having to be accountable for their actions. They want to push lynches without being fingered for starting the bandwagon. They want to appear to be leading lynches even though the lynches don't get anywhere. Kavdragon has done exactly that. He appears to be pro-town in attacking Node, even though he doesn't follow up on it and pretty much ignores it thereafter. Kavdragon is trying to hide the fact that he doesn't want to be responsible for any lynch. This is clearly what mafia want to do. The comparison to the XXXVIII and XXXIV games just solidify this line of reasoning. Kavdragon's behavior in past games lines up exactly with what we would expect a mafia to do. Please don't take the fact that I accused you earlier personally. Kavdragon is now my target. If you can look at this objectively I think you'll come to the same conclusion as I did too. blah ok Kurumi -> GMarshal -> chaoser -> Barundar might be good -> Kavdragon On May 19 2011 09:28 Incognito wrote: Ace and Foolishness don't deserve medic protection. Whoever is the Bullet Bill should check Eiii or Chaoser. Also reading over Radfield and Barundar's posts, I agree with the thesis that neither of the lynch candidates are mafia, and that the mafia probably wasn't heavily concerned about the lynch. This makes vote list checks that much more useless. I propose that Scamp give a gunpowder sniffing kit (that works like Bullet Bill) to someone instead of a vote list check kit. Individual checks are probably better right now than blanket checks. Besides, Mafia XII GF is the only mafia GF that can evade a BB check. Making bulletproof vests is useless. Its not like the inventor will even be able to guess who to give it to correctly. This is townie Ace who's too proud to do real analysis, or this is mafia Ace. The problem with Ace this game is that while he has been active in the thread and pushed an agenda, he hasn't taken the spotlight. He's piled everything up on me, and is content to sit back and yell the Incognito is scummy mantra. Ace isn't scumhunting. He's trying to lynch obvious townies who are just a bit out there. Ace is acting irrationally while trying to appear rational. He has a gun, so nobody's going to want to argue with him. Right? kitaman, please tell me why deconduo is confirmed anti-town whoops Foolishness doesn’t deserve medic protection suddenly, even though not so long ago he was for sure town. Also suddenly, ex post facto, Incog says neither of the lynch targets was mafia. That includes Kavdragon and Barundar. Whom he both called suspicious at some point in the day. That second-last paragraph has a good amount of irony. “not scumhunting” “trying to lynch obvious townies who are just a bit out there” “trying to appear rational” Conclusion: Incognito is literally all over the place. He calls people out for being inactive, not taking risks. He himself, on the other hand, takes many so-called “risks.” In the sense that he FoSes, votes, or otherwise voices suspicion for about twice as many people as there are on the mafia team. In one day. In this sense, Incog is the most noncommittal player in the entire game to this point. And commitment is a large risk in and of itself. Additionally, Incog assumes that his posting is being watched closely by many people, and that he is the central focus of the town on Day 1. That doesn't seem like a town attitude to me. | ||
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did you bother to look at any of the votes yesterday | ||
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On May 19 2011 13:13 KillerSOS wrote: Blue Inventor down Wonder what his invention does? Good question. I thought we asked for something unambiguous >_____> Looking at something through rose-colored glasses means perceiving it as better than it is. This seems to indicate some sort of checking item, perhaps it'll take a mafia read and verify/deny it? | ||
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