|
Alright that tears it for me. Sinani206 has given a decent defence.
He is in his first game and has made mistakes but he isn't mafia.
ilovejonn and AirbladeOrange are Mafia.
I strongly urge everyone to avoid voting for him and vote for ilovejonn instead. Ilj has been on so many scum lists recently. Chaoser had him pinned. Orgolove has him pinned. Kitaman27 has him pinned. I have him pinned. Please get behind this. Please!
Impervious you have doubts. This is where you decide whether or not your doubts remain.
Kenpachi you agreed with my analysis on AO. Please switch to ilovejonn.
Kita, you suspect ilj too. Vote for him instead!
|
On May 14 2011 03:34 ilovejonn wrote:
I agree, at least killing me will provide you guys with more information. I'll do whatever town needs the most.
You haven't provided anything other than self defence since Day 2. The most significant analysis you've given so far has been on EternalMisfit.
What's your roleclaim?
On May 11 2011 03:52 ilovejonn wrote:
Wow can you guys not read only one part of a sentence? I am basically role claiming there hello? It's fine if you don't believe you can go ahead and vote for me, but I'd rather not have us mislynch.
If there are still veterans in the mafia, my GF suspects are redtooth and orgolove. If there are only new players in the mafia team left it could be anyone really.
You never expanded on this. Like sinani206, if you are town, which I don't believe, you owe it us to defend yourself.
Airblade, you haven't defended yourself either. Step forward gents.
|
Now you've voted for yourself? Wtf?
On May 14 2011 03:34 ilovejonn wrote:
##Unvote: sinani206
##Vote: ilovejonn
|
Lol it's almost a perfectly split lynch again.
Sinani I agree with most of your analysis and I've been backing you but.... that post is very different to ones you've made previously. Is there some scumcoaching going on there I wonder?
|
|
|
On May 14 2011 06:57 Varpulis wrote:
You don't think that the EM wagon counts as a "counter bandwagon?" Scum could hop on that wagon without raising undue suspicion.
there are what, 29 hours left in the day? ilovejonn has hardly "slipped through the cracks."
If you want him lynched so bad, why don't you try to convince us? If you're not going to try, I'm not going to listen to you. The only argument that you've given is that he's been talked about a lot. I'm ignoring your data, because it's not reliable. If you can give me a solid argument, I'll bite.
DropBear almost has me convinced already.
Varpuli, I've saying almost exactly the same thing as orgolove. Ilovejonn and AirbladeOrange are on his top 4 list. I've been saying ilovejonn and AirbladeOrange.
He's wrong, but I'm right? That's a blatant contradiction.
|
This is a good point about sinani but you didn't answer my question man.
On May 14 2011 06:57 Varpulis wrote:
You don't think that the EM wagon counts as a "counter bandwagon?" Scum could hop on that wagon without raising undue suspicion.
there are what, 29 hours left in the day? ilovejonn has hardly "slipped through the cracks."
If you want him lynched so bad, why don't you try to convince us? If you're not going to try, I'm not going to listen to you. The only argument that you've given is that he's been talked about a lot. I'm ignoring your data, because it's not reliable. If you can give me a solid argument, I'll bite.
DropBear almost has me convinced already.
How is orgolove wrong and me right when we're saying the same thing?
On May 14 2011 15:06 Varpulis wrote:
He's new. At that point in the game, nobody had enough information to post long, structured analyses. His list was well organized, if misguided.
As it stands, his analysis and contribution is better than ilovejonn's. Sinani hasn't posted "i'm town just lynch me," and sinani doesn't have strong connections to anybody in the game because he's been so quiet. Jonn has, and he has potential connections with ABO and jaminz, iirc.
You wrote the wall on ilovejonn. Do you think that you were right?
|
Oh ninja'd lol.
Ok I see your point.
|
Ok I was feeling great until ilovejonn put a vote on himself for an information lynch. This makes absolutely no sense to me at all and has me completely confused.
So I'm going to give two competing theories which will depend on this lynch.
Possibility A:
ilovejonn
AirbladeOrange
redtooth/jaminz
ilovejonn is on orgolove
AO is on sinani
redtooth and jaminz are lurking like crazy.
Possibility B:
sinani206
VarpuliS/Impervious
orgolove
Sinani, Varpuli and orgolove are all on ilovejonn.
Impervious is on sinani206.
Reasoning is coming in a few minutes.
|
Actaully scratch VarpuliS from that list.
|
On May 14 2011 17:59 Forumite wrote:
DropBear, is this based on older data too, or just the last lynch?
Both. Hang on almost done.
|
Analysis on ilovejonn and AO can be found here.
Jaminz and ilovejonn by kitaman27 here.
Orgolove by Forumite here.
Redtooth because he has completely disappeared after day 2 and was on the Cthazsa train, plus voted chaoser day 1.
The two groups have been polar opposites since around Day 2. I find it extremely likely that they are of opposite alignment.
sinani v ilovejonn is the lynch right now.
orgolove has backed sinani and repeatedly gone after ilj
AO has repeatedly defended ilj and is now going after sinani
These two pairs are pretty certain to me. The others fall in line but are slightly less certain, plus I lean more toward redtooth over jaminz.
Others
Many of these people have been the focus of little attention so far.
I'm finding it quite difficult to analyse many of them, partly because almost all of them have either extremely low activity or relatively low activity. There aren't too many patterns I can see either.
Kenpachi
Has claimed the vigi-kill on GGQ unopposed. Confirmed Vigilante.
Voted himself Day 1
Voted Forumite intially Day 2. Fourth person to vote for Amber[Light], did so before DT claim.
Voted EternalMisfit initially Day 3 to make it 4-1 in his favour. Switched to chaos13 to make it 7-6 in sinani206's favour. Switches to sinani206 last minute to tie the votewith EM 8-8.
Kenpachi has actually had a remarkable success rate this game. He shot the right person with his Vig shot, voted Amber early and voted against lynching EM. I would like to see you do some more analysis Kenpachi. You have been playing well and are experienced, tell us what you think other that "lolscum".
kitaman27
Was one of only 5 people to vote for Irish_Punk13 on Day 1.
Initially voted for Cthazsa on Day 2 then switched to Amber[Light] after Chaoser's claim.
Voted sinani206 Day 3 to reduce the margin in EM's favour to 7-5.
Kita was on Amber and Irish_Punk13 day 1. He also called out GGQ Day 2. The only slip he's had was voting for Cthazsa. He has been providing analysis throughout the game. I feel good enough about him to call him town.
Mig
Hasn't vote-switched at any point in the game. Only 1 vote in each cycle.
Voted late on Kurumi Day 1.
Voted early on Amber[Light] Day 2.
Voted EternalMisfit Day 3.
Low activity.
Was called out by AirbladeOrange.
He's been very quiet, but he was like that in XXXVIII as a medic. His early vote on Amber, who took the lead early on partially due to his vote, gives him massive points for mine. Calling him town.
Conversion???
Voted early on Cthazsa Day 1
First person to vote Cthazsa Day 2, one of the last to switch to Amber[Light] after DT claim.
Voted himself Day 3, citing lack of time.
Low activity.
Was called out by AirbladeOrange as a possible scum bandwagon (see my analysis of AirbladeOrange), then attacked by AO (see the same).
This guy is hard to read. In XXXVIII he was the same and very very frequently came up as a diversion for us. In Newbie Mini Mafia 1 where he was mafia, he actually was extremely active, opposite to the habits of most players who are louder when town and quiet when mafia. However, it was a very different atmosphere there as he was probably most experienced.
Hesitantly calling him town.
elmizzt
Tends to vote quite late.
Votes redtooth Day 1.
Voted Beneather initially Day 2, then last person to switch to Amber.
Votes for sinani206 to tie the vote at 7-7.
Low activity.
Calls out Irish_Punk13 day 1.
Called out by DropBear, then kitaman27.
I feel the reasons for his voting are quite reasonable. My original analysis of him was shown to be flawed. I am hesitantly calling him town. The only thing stopping me from outright declaring it is that he was fairly quiet in his last game, Surprisingly Normal Mini 1 and was Mafia there.
Forumite
Voted Kurumi early. Unvoted to vote redtooth. Unvoted again to be the second last person to vote Kurumi.
Voted Irish_Punk13 Day 2, unvotes and votes Cthazsa to take Cthazsa to a 5-3 lead over Amber. Does not switch after the roleclaim.
Day 3 is the first person to vote for sinani206. Same on Day 4.
Mid-level activity.
Large analysis on orgolove.
I'm not sure on this one. I would say that he is definitely town if orgolove ends up being mafia, but isn't completely implicated if it's the other way around. Second opinions are welcome.
Impervious/kevconsim/Rising_Phoenix
No vote Day 1 so was replaced.
No vote Day 2 so replaced.
Votes EM Day 3 to make it 5-3 in Em's favour.
Extremely low activity until Impervious comes in.
Voted on by sinani206 Day 2. Sinani doesn't change his vote despite the DT claim.
This guys confuses me a bit as there's an insane amount of backtracking in only a short space of time.
Initial post is to Call out redtooth and kitaman27.
Attacks them again, along with EM, GGQ, sinani and ilovejonn while defending sandroba and Cthazsa.
Advocates a DT check on sinani rather than a vig hit.
Reiterates suspicion of kita and goes after EM and myself.
On May 10 2011 23:12 Impervious wrote:
Which is why I'm suspicious of him. If EM is town, then I'm fairly certain that ilj would be scum, based on how he's been acting.
Backtracks on kitaman27
Defends sinani206 while attacking EM and ilovejonn.
HUGE push to get sandroba back onto EM instead of ilovejonn
AttackArgue that EM's roleclaim via PM is a lieI don't understand this at all?Calls on orgolove to help and paints himself as suspicious.
Diverts discussion onto talking about why the nightkills on Night 1
Backtrack on information from the lynchTalks about lynch on sinani206
Starts to feel sinani is town but votes him anyway?
Still talking about Jackal's death.
Last post is him being drunk.
I don't understand how he's been pushing the hell out of ilovejonn yet now switches to sinani206 day 4?
On May 12 2011 05:40 Impervious wrote:Show nested quote +On May 12 2011 05:29 Varpulis wrote:
shit, 7 on EM? There's scum in that bandwagon, I'm sure of it. At least 1, maybe 2 if he's town.
Redtooth, where art thou? I'm in agreement that it is a possibility. However, like you said, we'd learn more about ilj from this lynch. And we can get sinani later as well. We're far from a lylo. Although, I would like to make this one count - taking the mafia down to 1kp would be really, really nice right now.
This guy is the one I'm least certain of in my two competing theories. I'd like some second opinions on the analysis of him.
chaos13
Hasn't vote-switched at any point in the game.
Second person to vote for Kurumi Day 1.
Third person to vote Amber Day 2.
Third person to vote sinani206 Day 3.
Low activity.
Friend of Irish_Punk13. Mentioned that Irish had forgotten his password and would probably get modkilled, hence had been in contact with him on Day 2. I feel that if they were on the same team, being mates and in contact, chaos13 would have moved hell and high water to help Irish get his password back.
Chaos has been decisive. As chaoser mentioned, the mafia were resisting Amber's lynch hard so him voting early for Amber gives him huge townie points.
VarpuliS
Day 1 votes Kurumi
Day 2 votes Beneather. Switches to Cthazsa when it becomes apparent that Amber is in danger when he ties the lead with Beneather and helps bring Cthazsa past Amber. Switches to Amber after DT claim.
Early vote for sinani206 Day 3.
Has been very active. This is very similar to his habits as a townie in Surprisingly Normal Mini 1 and Sleeper Cell where he was town in both.
High on orgolove's list of doom This is mostly due to his Day 2 voting patterns, all of which are understandable. Not present on many others.
DropBear
Voted Beneather initially Day 1 then swapped to Cthazsa.
Swapped votes a lot Day 2 from redtooth to orgolove to sandroba to Cthazsa to Amber after the DT claim.
Voted ilovejonn Day 3, switched to sinani206 to tie the vote with EM at 7-7.
I've been wrong on a lot of things so far but I'm trying to analyse as much as possible and admit my mistakes. I hope everyone can appreciate that even though I've been erratic I'm trying to help.
I'm staying on ilovejonn. I'm extremely confused about his self-vote. Will not be back until just before lynch time.
I URGE redtooth and Kenpachi to come out and start posting.
If we have any detectives remaining with information as well, please please come out!
|
On May 14 2011 18:19 Forumite wrote:
DropBear, one thing that looks odd with Possibility A, why would they lynch EternalMisfit if they didn´t want to save sinani206? If they are the scum, then they wouldn´t have gained anything on lynching EM over sinani206, right?
If EM is town, why wouldn't they want to lynch him? It's a mislynch right there.
If EM dies, they can defend Ilovejonn against sinani206. Assuming Possibility A is correct, if they can get sinani206 lynched today, it means they have successfully delayed 2 lynches and are more or less back in the game.
|
On May 14 2011 18:40 Forumite wrote:
What I mean is, that if both sinani206 is Town too, then A wouldn´t risk themselves by going for EM, they´d try to spread out between the targets.
You mean how AO, ilovejonn and jaminz all voted EM? This is one of the reasons why I lean to redtooth over jaminz.
While I don't think AO has mentioned redtooth at all, my Night 1 analysis of ilovejonn shows that there were some links between ilovejonn and redtooth Day 1.
I have included both redtooth and jaminz as the possible third for A but lean redtooth. See kita's analysis for why Jaminz should be there as well.
|
OK I'm back guys. Good work on the lynch! Big up to chaoser as well 
Firstly, welcome Xedat!
Second, I am almost 100% ready to clear ilovejonn. The self-vote was strange and a bad idea but I can't really imagine a scenario in which a mafia would do this. Sorry for voting for you!
Third, orgolove, shouldn't NOT voting for sinani206 give people red points on Day 4? I can't see how ilovejonn can be mafia after this.
The next point I want to address is AirbladeOrange.
My analysis of him was heavily based around him being tied to ilovejonn. This lynch makes AO look much much better.
On the other hand, Mafia are in dire straits now. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think we have another 3 mislynches up our sleeves, and that's assuming there aren't any veterans left in which case it could be more. In XXXVIII when our Mafia team was totally fucked, AO stayed on until the last possible moment. It's a trait he's shown before.
I'm going to look over him again but my suspicions have dropped drastically following today's lynch.
|
Redtooth, you were the last person to vote for sinani206, once any hope of saving him was gone.
Your activity has absolutely plummeted since Day 2 when chaoser named 4/6 of the mafia. You better get in here and explain yourself if you survive the night.
He has, if my counting skills are correct, 94 posts on days 1 and 2.
He had 4 posts on Day 3 and 4 combined.
|
Last thing for this night phase from me (probably ).
What do people think about a mass roleclaim once Day 5 begins? Too early?
|
On May 15 2011 15:20 Mig wrote:
The only blue roles that might be left are veterans in which case it would obviously be retarded for them to claim. So yea definitely absolutely no point in role claiming.
If this is the case and the only blues left are veterans, why wouldn't they want to claim?
A) If they did it unopposed, noone would lynch them.
B) Mafia having only 1 KP means they would have to kill other people. That way the pool of suspicious people shrinks.
|
On May 15 2011 15:49 orgolove wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2011 14:59 DropBear wrote:OK I'm back guys. Good work on the lynch! Big up to chaoser as well Firstly, welcome Xedat! Second, I am almost 100% ready to clear ilovejonn. The self-vote was strange and a bad idea but I can't really imagine a scenario in which a mafia would do this. Sorry for voting for you! Third, orgolove, shouldn't NOT voting for sinani206 give people red points on Day 4? I can't see how ilovejonn can be mafia after this.
The next point I want to address is AirbladeOrange. My analysis of him was heavily based around him being tied to ilovejonn. This lynch makes AO look much much better. On the other hand, Mafia are in dire straits now. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think we have another 3 mislynches up our sleeves, and that's assuming there aren't any veterans left in which case it could be more. In XXXVIII when our Mafia team was totally fucked, AO stayed on until the last possible moment. It's a trait he's shown before. I'm going to look over him again but my suspicions have dropped drastically following today's lynch. 1. ilovejonn only started his bus after it became clear most of the town was onto two of the remaining three reds. His mindset - "if we're gonna lose one anyway, let it be the newb and not me." I can't believe you just think that post clears him. 2. You have to understand who has or doesn't have the information. Reds already knew that sinani is going to be lynched anyway. It's the "switch" that you see once the lynch is apparent that matters. Whether or not they first voted for a red is not as important. In fact, that type of analysis falls easy prey to reds voting for each other early on then switching just to confuse us. That is partially counted for the +1 that people receive each time their vote turns out to be a vote for an eventual confirmed green. ilovejonn has been posting and sending accusations everywhere. I strongly push for his lynch.
Ok this makes sense, ilovejonn could have bussed sinani206.
So you think ilovejonn. Who else? The godfather is still out there somewhere.
|
On May 15 2011 16:35 Mig wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2011 16:31 DropBear wrote:
If this is the case and the only blues left are veterans, why wouldn't they want to claim?
A) If they did it unopposed, noone would lynch them.
B) Mafia having only 1 KP means they would have to kill other people. That way the pool of suspicious people shrinks. How is anyone going to oppose them? What is to stop mafia from claiming veteran? There is no way we can know how many veterans are in this game so it would be incredibly easy for mafia to claim them. And we want mafia to hit the veterans..... This should be obvious. If they hit the vets they lose one of their kp. If we announce who our vets are the mafia will know which players they should avoid killing.
I guess it would be easy for Mafia to claim Vet haha. I didn't even think of that.
Ok you've convinced me. No mass roleclaim
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
