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United States4714 Posts
Gonna respond to some of your points kita.
1. 2 of jaminz long posts were before before you wrote up your analysis calling him the gf, yet you don't seem to take them into consideration.
2. I agree I didn't look closely enough at jaminz before I voted for him but I was convinced by the fact that he had been the last person to vote twice in lynches that killed town.
3. You still haven't addressed the fact that you used that one completely non scum tell post by jaminz as a big part of your analysis against him. I expect a lot better from a veteran player than to make 3 major points and have one of them be a completely false supposed scum tell.
4. You are once again completely wrong about jaminz metagame. He was active for 1 day in a newbie mini mafia game. Do you not see how incredibly different that is compared to being active for multiple days in a row in a 30 man game with vets? And why exactly couldn't jaminz have been blue? You declared after 1 day that he was a lurking mafia when he could have easily been a lurking blue according to you.
5. The dt check of AO. I am like 90% sure that forumite did not DT check AO. Did you read the post where I gave my reasoning for this? Throughout this game there are a lot of times where you seem to skip over points that don't quite coincide with your plans instead of addressing them. You didn't even address iljs argument about the sinani coached post as well. Instead you attacked a couple of minor trivial points he made.
6. And like I tried to make as clear as possible I am not just bashing you for being wrong I am bashing you for not trying to actually win. Show me examples of you pushing hard for a lynch or pushing hard to defend someone. Or more importantly actually discussing relevant points with people to make the correct decisions. This game you post your analysis then pretty much sit back and let the rest of the town do all the real discussion. In the previous game you were wrong several times but you were actively discussing and trying to make sure the town got the right lynch. Can you show me anywhere in the game you actually tried to defend someone?
While everyone else seemed content to sit back and just hope they survived (yourself included) I put like 4 hours into my researching my post against you. I seem to be the only person left that really cares about making the correct decision and winning. I am kind of rambling here but I guess my point is yes I am town and right now I am voting for you. If I am wrong the other 2 mafia will also vote you and the town will lose. So you need to convince me to change my vote and so far you haven't given me anything that out weighs all the points I have against you. Show me clearly why I can trust you are town and show me clearly who the other mafia are.
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United States4714 Posts
And really you knew jaminz was blue last game from day1 last game?
Lets look at jaminz posts from mafia XXXVIII on day 1.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 12 2011 13:32 jaminz wrote:
I realize I've been inactive for pretty much the entire game so far, and I don't really have a great excuse other than that I've been a bit busy lately. However, I'm working my way through the thread right now, and plan to be completely caught up by the end of the night.
I've only played one game of Mafia before (Haunted Mafia this past Halloween - put on by Doctor H), so I'm still fairly new to the game, but I'm doing what I can to take everything in. Thanks in advance for everyone being patient with me.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 12 2011 13:39 jaminz wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2011 13:34 chaoser wrote:On April 12 2011 13:32 jaminz wrote:
I realize I've been inactive for pretty much the entire game so far, and I don't really have a great excuse other than that I've been a bit busy lately. However, I'm working my way through the thread right now, and plan to be completely caught up by the end of the night.
I've only played one game of Mafia before (Haunted Mafia this past Halloween - put on by Doctor H), so I'm still fairly new to the game, but I'm doing what I can to take everything in. Thanks in advance for everyone being patient with me. Claims he needs to catch up. On April 12 2011 08:49 jaminz wrote:
##Vote Doctor Helevetica Voted DrH hours in advance I'll be completely honest about that one, and you can ridicule me all you want for it: I was nervous that I'd be modkilled for not voting, and wanted to make sure I had a vote in before things got too out of hand so I voted for Dr. H. I know he knows how to play the game, and my gut said he was the one to pick.
I guess those 2 posts were all you needed to determine he was a lurking blue that game instead of a lurking mafia?
Here is his one and only post from day 2
+ Show Spoiler +On April 13 2011 11:55 jaminz wrote:
Man, this game is pretty intense. I'm having a bit of trouble keeping up, but I'm working on it. It seems like Bumatlarge, DoctorH, and GMarshal have all had a lot of analysis done on them so far, so I'll try to look at a few of the other players and post whatever analysis I can.
I gotta say pretty impressive that you knew he was a lurking blue from just those posts.
And you say that blues and reds lurk but so do disinterested/busy/overwhelmed townies. In fact those are probably the most common type of lurkers, especially in big games filled with new players.
I don't think I am buying your story about knowing that jaminz was a lurking blue from day1. It feels more likely to me you just made that up to try and give your argument credit. Which is just another thing that makes you look scummy in my eyes.
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United States4714 Posts
And to clarify a couple things
I was wrong about the jaminz lynch but I used the information of him being the last voter twice before pushing for his lynch. You were pushing for him from the very beginning using just faulty analysis (especially the ridiculous argument about his post concerning killers death).
I am not punishing you for voting for sinani. You are misinterpreting my argument. I was arguing that you should get no town credit for that vote. Which makes perfectly logical sense given the points I mentioned.
For impervious yea you asked is anyone willing to switch and reposted your analysis but do you really think that counts as pushing your lynch? You don't add anything to your analysis even though impervious had posted like 10 times since you did the analysis. You don't discuss why he is more scummy than any of the other candidates you only posted your limited (like 4 lines) thoughts on impervious. In fact you don't even mention redtooth or orgolove and why they are worse people to lynch at all. Oh also after impervious comes back and votes for himself you conveniently stop posting and giving your thoughts completely. Disappearing during the most crucial times of a big lynch, solid play when you are by far the most experienced/best player left and should be leading the town.
I agree the vig call makes you look slightly better but it is literally pretty much the only pro town thing I could find of yours this entire game.
I know you are gonna give various reasons for why your bad play should be excused but it just seems so strange to me that you have played so much worse and consistently lead the town in the wrong direction this game when compared to last.
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United States4714 Posts
Oh and to talk a bit more about the impervious lynch. You only re-posted your argument for why he should be lynched after varpulis prodded you to switch your vote. Before that you seemed content to once again post like 4 lines worth of content then sit out on any real discussion.
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United States4714 Posts
On May 29 2011 00:50 kitaman27 wrote:
This shows how much you are tunneling. You are unwilling to listen to reason and seem to think anything I say is scummy. I did indeed know jaminz was blue because I was the watcher. We watched the same target on night one. If fact, I knew you were blue day one as well since all three of us visited bum. That is why I subtly defend him in that game when people wanted to have him lynched.
Ah k yea I retract my point about that then. I thought you were implying you could tell from his posts right away he was blue.
Why do you disagree with the fact that I don't think forumite checked AO. Forumite defended AO on day 1 saying he wasn't scummy. Why exactly would forumite check someone he doesn't feel is scum, instead of people he was voting for or suspicious of? Also later on he twice randomly lists chaos as green for no reason. I see absolutely no reason he wouldn't have listed both AO and chaos if he had actually checked him.
And my point is you didn't really defend him. You brought up the check but did you really argue for it? You are arguing now 50000x harder than you have all game. If you are mafia you want AO lynched so you soft defended him to buy yourself a bit of credit but you still want him lynched so that you can use ilj as your target for the next day. Mafia does not want to just reach lylo no matter what, they want to reach lylo with people they think are lynchable. If you had put 1/10th of the effort you are using now to actually defend someone this game your arguments would be a lot more believable to me.
And you dismiss the sinani coached post as just wifom really? How about the fact that mafia kp was on the line? How about the fact that they chose the easiest and most obvious target (ilj). How about the fact it almost worked and 4 people insta voted for ilj after it. If they were just trying to buy town cred they could have had sinani make his usual shitty analysis instead of coaching him to write an actual convincing argument and risk lynching jonn. Instead of just offhandedly dismissing my points as wifom why not actually look at all the evidence surrounding it.
You keep saying I am mindlessly tunneling you but I am looking at all the points you make then researching them and building an actual case.
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United States4714 Posts
On May 29 2011 00:48 ilovejonn wrote:
You guys realize this is lylo right? Seeing 3 votes out of 5 on kitaman27 already before the first half of the day is very suspicious to me. One of Mig, elmizzt, Dropbear, has to be mafia. I'm willing to bank on elmizzt being the second mafia but we have to leave that discussion to another day like DB said.
Way to go out on a limb jonn lol. Obviously if you are town and 3 people have voted already at least one of them must be mafia.
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United States4714 Posts
Yea I agree but anyway no real point in us discussing it now. We should focus on today's lynch which seems to be most likely you vs kita.
I think we can pretty safely say that there is pretty much a 0% chance that both jonn and kita are the 2 last mafia members. I also think it is extremely unlikely that both db and elmizzit are mafia. If they were I am not sure they are savvy enough to attack each other after I accused kita today although there could be some small chance that they are the 2 remaining mafia.
So that leaves us with these possible mafia combinations
ILJ/elmizzit
ILJ/dropbear
kita/elmizzit
kita/dropbear
Since kita and ILJ are the pair we can be most certain of not being both mafia we should focus on lynching between those 2. That way we will have a confirmed townie in the final 3.
I know this is common sense but I figured I would post it just to try and keep us from getting side tracked.
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United States4714 Posts
Also kita/jonn what do you think about elmizzit/db both being mafia? I don't believe it is the case because I still believe kita is mafia, but we have plenty of time there is no reason we shouldn't discuss every possibility.
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United States4714 Posts
Yea I saw you read through irish's entire previous game where he was mafia and then you said it wasn't similar at all to how he played this game. I took that as more of a defense of irish than an attack. You still ended up voting for him day1 but it was late in the day when the lynch was already decided, we realistically cannot learn much from it.
Once again you don't actually address my points for why AO wasn't checked by forumite. Can you give me some logic for why you think forumite checked AO and what day you think he did it? Dts can post their opinions of people even if they haven't checked them you know.
And lol did you really think you were adding another confirmed townie? Your posts certainly didn't show it. Your first post that day you mention that there was also a chance that AO was the gf so the check could mean nothing. Your 2nd post you say that AO and ilj are both being silent and one of them should be lynched that day. I mean come on did you really believe that AO was town? If you did why did you not try in any way whatsoever, other than quoting one post by forumite, to save him???? We had 2 full days with nothing else to do and you let the town lynch someone you thought was a checked townie with no protest. I mean come on.
And wtf once again you don't address the sinani coached post points. Instead you again try and attack some smaller irrelevant point. I am looking for some logic behind these decisions kita. I don't believe mafia are just randomly doing things. They obviously put some thought into it before they coached sinani so tell me what exactly was the mafia logic behind doing it considering the points I brought up about. Does it really make more logical sense that mafia was bussing instead of really trying to save sinani?
And no I am not contradicting myself because I already explained why you probably felt you had to take the calculated risk to vote sinani on day 3. I know you said the lynch was still close so you should get points. Day 4 pretty much everyone voted sinani once again means totally nothing.
You quoted all the analysis you have done all game and claim you have pushed your targets. No you haven't. You can't even come close to arguing that you have. Everyone posts their thoughts before they vote, it is pretty much required if you don't want the entire town to endless hound you. Just posting some limited analysis is not pushing your targets. Actually debating with people and telling them why they are wrong about their lynch targets and you are right and why your lynch is a better choice is pushing your target.
And can you explain why you haven't defended a single person this entire game, other than quoting one post from forumite? Can you explain why you didn't try to actively keep any innocents from being lynched?
So basically throughout this entire game the only things I can give you any town points for are
1) calling for vig shot on day
2) GGQ calling you a lurker-but obviously this is a minor point
3) you attempt slightly to defend AO but then you ruin it by not bothering to defend him whatsoever the following day.
4) you voted sinani but on day 3, I am willing to give a small amount of credit here but I explained why people can't just assume this clears you.
So after playing for 9 days kita there is 1 clearly pro town thing you did then 3 things which are mildly pro town. From my perspective it looks like you pretty much just actively lurked this whole game without contributing anywhere close to your normal level.
I understand maybe you are getting frustrated because I seem to just dismiss anything you would view as pro town but I give logical reasoning behind all my points. So instead of attacking irrelevant details give me some logical answers to my questions.
Tell my why you think forumite checked AO. Tell me why you think it is more likely the mafia bussed ilj instead of really tried to save sinani. Tell me why you didn't really try to save AO at all. I need some logical responses to believe you here.
Also you still haven't posted a decent argument against ILJ. You just quoted your analysis from day 3. Can you give an up to date analysis for why he should be lynched over you?
And jonn you said it was good that this was saturday and sunday so I assume that meant you are going to be active. So come on you gotta give me something here. You have made no real analysis and have just taken a completely obvious and pointless stance that we need to be careful because it is lylo. So ask kita some questions, give specific examples of how kita is suspicious, defend yourself from his accusations. You gotta help out. Me and kita are the only 2 trying here.
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United States4714 Posts
I mean the town already has 4 votes on kita. I could sit back and just wait for the day post to see what happens when he dies. But I am actively debating with him and trying to get the answers to questions I have because I want us to be 100% sure we make the right decision. I need the rest of the town to actually put in the same effort I have been putting in.
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United States4714 Posts
Well the reason nobody else defended AO was because me/db/xedat/ilj didn't think he was actually checked and well elmizzit is probably mafia. I went through all of forumite's posts (he only had 5 not 6 checks) and I am 90% he checked beneather/irish day1 day 2 sinani day 3 chaos day 4 orgolove day 5 not sure. So in my eyes there was really only one spot for him to check AO and really no reason for him to check AO on day 5. But the main reason I attack you for not defending him is you are trying to gain some town cred for bringing it up. Saying if you were mafia you wouldn't have tried to get another confirmed townie. Yet if you really believed AO was town I think you would have put some effort into actually saving him.
Forumite only posted that AO was pro town early on, which was the only time he was really active. I already mentioned this since forumite defended him on day 1 he defended him for the same reason later on.
Hm your answer to my questions about why they would bus jonn instead of actually try and divert the lynch are meh. This is an important point for me, because it is a big reason I think ilj is prob town. With all the factors considered during that day I really feel like it was more likely for mafia to try and actually save sinani and just not bus one of their own. And if they did decide to bus I am not sure why they would have done it the way they did. But you have answered the question so I won't ask it again.
That's fine we still have over a day left. As long as you get up the analysis with enough time for us to debate it should be fine.
Well I am definitely uneasy about none of the other town helping. But we have a day left so hopefully the others can step it up a bit before the final decision is made.
But something we should consider is I think it is pretty unlikely that elmizzit is mafia while you are town. Elmizzit I feel panicked and threw you under the bus to try and save himself after he decided I had you pegged with my analysis. If he/ilj were actually the remaining mafia it seems more likely to me that elmizzit would just continue his lurking ways and not really post much in the hopes that we lynch you and the game is over. He seems to only post really long posts when he feels threatened so either he felt threatened because ilj/db are the last 2 mafia or he thought you were screwed for sure and he was trying to save himself.
Obviously I can't know this for sure but we do know for sure that elmizzit likes to lurk and seem confused when we are lynching townies and he had no problem insta jumping on the attack of mafia sinani. I don't think he has the skill on his own to attack db just to confuse town if him/ilj were both mafia, his natural instinct would have been to continue his lurking ways. I would like to hear your thoughts on this and if you think I am wrong tell me why.
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United States4714 Posts
Oh also I will give you town points for chaos saying you are town if I can take away town points for the fact that in AO and jaminz' last posts they both said you were their main suspect. And the only person who did a pbp analysis of you (impervious) you helped to get lynched.
But yea jonn you have to actually post some content. You have been mostly silent this game now is a time you need to step up and try to put as much information out there as you can. Because the real decision today is between you and kita. And so far kita has posted like 50 times and you have posted only a couple.
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United States4714 Posts
Dp I am glad you are back. Once you finish reading up on the last few pages post here I wanna ask you a question.
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United States4714 Posts
Ok first question I have is are you going to be online close to when the lynch happens tomorrow? Doesn't have to be super close but within a couple hours should be fine.
2nd if we assume that me and you are town then either ilj/kita is the 3rd town that means ilj/kita will vote for each other and the 2 of us must vote for the same person for town to win. So my question is if ilj either doesn't defend himself or I don't like his defense will you be willing to switch to him if I want to? Like even if you are leaning that kita is mafia would you switch if I wanted to? I know this question is hard to answer before we hear from ilj but it is important to my strategy tomorrow to know the answer to this.
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United States4714 Posts
Well kita is going to vote for ilj. I don't really see the point of trying to lynch elmizzit today. We should eliminate either ilj or kita today while we still have the maximum number active townies alive. Then we can just kill elmizzit the next day.
But yea that is fine that is what I wanted to know.
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United States4714 Posts
Ah great you are back ilj. The more you can post addressing kita's analysis of you the easier it will be for town to make the correct choice. So any opinions and reasoning you can give will be very helpful right now.
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United States4714 Posts
On May 29 2011 14:56 DropBear wrote:
This game needs moar roleclaims
I am vanilla but what else do you expect people to claim right now lol. I can't really see anyone claiming differently at this point.
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United States4714 Posts
Ok so db now that ilj has posted his defense who do you think should be lynched? We probably have most of the relevant information we are going to get this game.
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United States4714 Posts
haha well I don't think we should kill elmizzit. If we kill him we don't get to choose who will be left to decide between ilj and kita tomorrow and we won't really have any new information to make the pick with anyway.
So we gotta decide between ilj and kita.
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United States4714 Posts
What noooo don't kill elmizzt lol. If we kill elmizzt then either you or I die after right? Which means the entire burden of picking the games winner is gonna fall one just one person. And we are not going to gain any new info from his lynch because we both think it is either ilj/elmizzt or kita/elmizzt already. So it will be better for us to make the hard decision now. 2 heads are better than 1 haha. Then if we get the hard decision right we can kill elmizzit np.
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EPT
