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On May 12 2011 13:38 DropBear wrote:
Those of his suspects who is coming back to "frame him" is me and VarpuliS. AirbladeOrange and ilovejonn are nowhere to be seen.
ilovejonn made plenty of posts accusing me. 3 out of 4.
On May 12 2011 13:40 Mig wrote:
You could be the best scum hunter in the world but if you don't have the time or ability to actually post and convince people of your ideas then that's the fault of your game not the town's.
And you still haven't said why you didn't vote between EM and sinani.
I'm not convinced either of them are mafia above the 4 I listed.
On May 12 2011 13:46 Varpulis wrote:
Why should I trust orgolove's data? We've killed three mafia, and are about to kill a forth. None of them were on his suspect list, which was based entirely on his data.
You lynched 1. And 1 only. The other one was killed by a vigilante. Both were done before I posted my data.
The remaining two were modkilled. You called that a good record? LOL
"About to kill a 4th" suuuuure. I have 100% confidence that you'll kill a red tomorrow. Yes.
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Hi. I had already made the spreadsheet available for download in the main post:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=216644¤tpage=74#1473
Unfortunately, as we have no further revealed reds, addition of the latest votes will only give a small amount of new information, beyond just universally adding a small amount of points to everyone that voted for the revealed green.
Anyway, we see that ilovejonn keeps popping up in many lists, including chaoser's. I voted for him yesterday, and I'm voting on him again. I doubt someone who has turned up in our radar so many times is not a red.
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Fools that pushed for Cthsazsa after the red lynch, I despise you.
Anyway. Vote ilovejonn. If I still have to explain after all this... I don't know what to say.
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lol and ilovejonn slips through the crack once again. Don't you guys find it even remotely suspicious that there hasn't been any defense or counter bandwagon formed after sinai was first accused?
*sigh* this game just isn't worth my time anymore.
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... And again we're lynching a townie.
Did you not notice how flustered and panicky ilovejonn became after I first posted my suspicion on him? Ugh. Not just that, but every one of his efforts has been attempting to paint red on completely irrelevant targets. His "information" vote is merely smokescreen to try to distract us from the truth.
How long will it take you before you eat your own words?
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Fun. As I said. You will all eat your words when the game is over. Sigh. So pathetic.
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Wait wtf that's not the real post?...
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Anyway. The post won't change anything. You just lynched a green. And the reds know it, and are probably laughing their asses off right now in their IRC or quicktopic.
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Oh wow. wtf?
... That was uh.. completely unexpected. wtf....
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Holy shit. um. ok. wow. ...... Lets see....
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hm. I'll update the spreadsheet asap. Sinai was in the bottom half. I completely did not expect this. Shit...
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... But real quick. Notice how ilovejonn is once again one of the last voters who switched to the red.
And I want to point out in the beginning of day 3, that he tried to start another bandwagon against Cthsazsa, who came in second place to Amber during that closely-fought lynch.
I still think ilovejonn is red. And I hope my data, when I finish the analysis, will show as such.
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Btw varpulis, if I really was red, then I would've known that sinai was a red. Given that, would I really have posted the following, right after the first fake day post? I'd be proven immediately wrong, in fact, within 5 minutes. Would I really have purposefully put in that position?
On May 15 2011 12:01 orgolove wrote:
Fun. As I said. You will all eat your words when the game is over. Sigh. So pathetic. On May 15 2011 12:02 orgolove wrote:
Wait wtf that's not the real post?... On May 15 2011 12:03 orgolove wrote:
Anyway. The post won't change anything. You just lynched a green. And the reds know it, and are probably laughing their asses off right now in their IRC or quicktopic.
I attribute my difficulty in distinguishing sinani as red to having only 2 days of data. I'm sure when I finish updating the spreadsheet, things will become a lot more clearer.
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And yes, I do respect the town a lot. Thanks for getting the red. This is huge - they now only have just 1 KP.
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On May 15 2011 12:50 ilovejonn wrote:
bet he's still gonna stick to his data sheet and go with whoever has the highest points after tonight. because vote analysis is the best and only analysis am I right orgolove?
Nah, I'm still sticking my vote on you, scum.
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Node, you forgot to remove sandroba from the player roster list
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Here's the spreadsheet with updated vote results.
http://uploadmirrors.com/download/LFRNBCMK/TL_mafia_xxxix_day_4.xlsx
First, the criteria again:
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/ivzZj.png)
Day 3 was another really important vote, in hindsight, as sinani206 was revealed to be a red.
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/bE3v0.png)
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/na9FI.png)
Day 4 didn't bring too many changes. Though the vote was close at the start of 12 hours, it was more because the reds didn't have the manpower to switch the lynch, rather than there being actually two contested results. And the data shows that.
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/0KqkS.png)
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/e7zuY.png)
+ Show Spoiler +![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/ruJel.png) How did it feel, having to choose between two of your own? lololol
Of course, in red's point of view, it'd be better to lose the new player whose every action had to be directed, and save the vet who could, given a miracle, survive... (ha)
Here's the summary.
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/GeFlM.png)
I have more confidence in this, as it compiles 4 days of data, instead of just 2. But again, because I revealed the methodology before this, it is not completely impossible that the reds tried to coordinate and manipulate the procedures. I'll see about tweaking the factors the next time I play mafia.
To me, the data clearly shows that ilovejonn and AirbladeOrange are the remaining two reds.
I strongly push for ilovejonn's lynch.
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On May 15 2011 14:59 DropBear wrote:OK I'm back guys. Good work on the lynch! Big up to chaoser as well  Firstly, welcome Xedat! Second, I am almost 100% ready to clear ilovejonn. The self-vote was strange and a bad idea but I can't really imagine a scenario in which a mafia would do this. Sorry for voting for you! Third, orgolove, shouldn't NOT voting for sinani206 give people red points on Day 4? I can't see how ilovejonn can be mafia after this.
The next point I want to address is AirbladeOrange. My analysis of him was heavily based around him being tied to ilovejonn. This lynch makes AO look much much better. On the other hand, Mafia are in dire straits now. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think we have another 3 mislynches up our sleeves, and that's assuming there aren't any veterans left in which case it could be more. In XXXVIII when our Mafia team was totally fucked, AO stayed on until the last possible moment. It's a trait he's shown before. I'm going to look over him again but my suspicions have dropped drastically following today's lynch.
1. ilovejonn only started his bus after it became clear most of the town was onto two of the remaining three reds. His mindset - "if we're gonna lose one anyway, let it be the newb and not me." I can't believe you just think that post clears him.
2. You have to understand who has or doesn't have the information. Reds already knew that sinani is going to be lynched anyway. It's the "switch" that you see once the lynch is apparent that matters. Whether or not they first voted for a red is not as important. In fact, that type of analysis falls easy prey to reds voting for each other early on then switching just to confuse us. That is partially counted for the +1 that people receive each time their vote turns out to be a vote for an eventual confirmed green.
ilovejonn has been posting and sending accusations everywhere. I strongly push for his lynch.
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Just what more do I have to do to convince you vs ilovejonn. Or do I have to prove that with -my- death as well? Sigh.
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EPT
