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TL Mafia XXXIX - Page 3

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 10 2011 08:40 GMT
#1493
On May 10 2011 17:28 Forumite wrote:
Why does redtooth go from -9,5 in the first list, to 2 in the next, just by removing the changes after the DT-claim?


He cast the critical vote right after dropbear that first moved the vote from a non-red lynch to a red lynch. Further, his vote was changed from Cthsazsa directly to Amber, which in and of itself is worth -6.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 10 2011 08:42 GMT
#1495
On May 10 2011 17:31 sandroba wrote:
Orgolove, while I apreciate the effort and those calculation help us see somethings better, they are not our main tool for catching mafia. Mafia are those who are misleading the town on purpose.
Those are EM and DropBear.


Well, we can agree that Dropbear is a major target. Shall we vote for them, and ask the DTs to check EM, ilovejonn, or AirBladeOrange?
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 10 2011 08:44 GMT
#1497
We can only lynch one at a time. Our targets converge on DropBear. Lets take care of the immediate threat first.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 10 2011 08:47 GMT
#1499
Just because someone posted a faulty analysis of you doesn't mean he's 100% mafia, you know...
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 10 2011 08:58 GMT
#1503
On May 10 2011 17:51 DropBear wrote:
Alright I've gone and fucked up this game. I apologise to everyone for playing shit. I am claiming Vanilla Townie.

I'm going to stick with the vote on ilovejonn. I don't even have confidence in myself anymore, but I've been looking at him since day 1.

I'm not going to post again for a bit. The last thing I will say is that if EternalMisfit does flip red and everyone tries to kill me next, when I flip green, look at kitaman27 (yay I think I've accused everyone by now) and elmizzt is clear. If EM flips green, kill ilovejonn and redtooth. There is still a godfather out there and they will almost definitely be an experienced player.

Rally around Sandroba. He is wrong about me and he may be about EM as well, I'm not sure, but he is definitely town. So is Cthazsa.


The biggest thing that went against you, in my view, is that you changed your vote 5 times (I actually missed one) It's not like you're unusually active compared to others too - and you really waited till the very last minute, only switching your vote to amber after chaoser fake claimed. In fact, just 10 minutes before chaoser's claim, you said you're backing Amber to the hilt....

I don't buy your claim.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 10 2011 09:00 GMT
#1505
Either you're unusually brave and willing to take the risk that you might vote for a townie so many times, or you already have the information as a red and can vote with confidence.


Sigh. I need more data.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 10 2011 09:04 GMT
#1507
On May 10 2011 17:59 DropBear wrote:
Last thing. Whoever the Vigilante is who shot GGQ, you need to claim. You need to do it now. The only way to doubt you if you claim is if someone else does too, which narrows down another mafia. We have another confirmed townie when you claim.



If you really are a green, it does us no good to fall silent. Explain your thought process. Give us a reason to not vote for you. Come on man.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 10 2011 09:06 GMT
#1509
Ah. I just saw your post.

Actually, from my records your votes were:

Day 2 player voted for
7-May 12:30 dropbear redtooth
8-May 14:20 dropbear orgolove
9-May 1:12 dropbear sandroba
9-May 11:15 dropbear cthsazsa
9-May 11:24 dropbear Amber[light]

초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 10 2011 09:08 GMT
#1510
On May 10 2011 18:05 Mig wrote:
I agree with going after em before dropbear.

I think there's still a chance db is just an extremely overactive townie who has been trying too hard to do analysis on everyone and consequently hasn't always thought everything through before he posts.


Well. Elmizzt was the last vote to switch to Amber, just 5 min before the end. He didn't have that much activity, but also didn't contribute to the red's campaign against Cthsazsa.

If he's a red, he's an inactive red.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 10 2011 09:18 GMT
#1512
Ah. I don't think I see anything that particularly stands out about him from the rest, from voting patterns. All his votes were non-critical. What makes you so sure?...

Oh, another thing - I wonder how DropBear knew that a vigilante shot chaoser, when the reds still have 2 KP?

If we flip DropBear, we will have much more data to go with.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 10 2011 09:20 GMT
#1513
Ok. Nevermind. ignore that. That was stupid. Somehow I thought he said the vigilante who shot chaoser should come out.

It's getting way to late. I'm going to sleep. Ugh.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 10 2011 09:34 GMT
#1517
Day 1:
He voted for Beneather (confirmed townie) +1
Then he switched votes+0.5.

Total 1.5

Day 2:
Switched 5 times. I missed the first switch, so the points he got from this was:
Real first vote:
7-May 12:30 redtooth


"First" vote counted:
7-May 14:20 orgolove
no points

2nd Vote
9-May 1:12 sandroba
+0.5 from vote switch
+3 from voting one of the #2s when a confirmed red was leading
+5 from making the lynch a tie from a red leading lynch

3rd vote
9-May 11:15 cthsazsa
+1 from 2nd vote switch
(no other points gained, as at this point cthsazsa was leading the votes by 3)


4th and final vote
9-May 11:15 Amber[Light]
+1.5 from 3rd vote switch
-1 from voting on confirmed red
+2 from last minute bandwagon vote switch on a red that is confirmed to be lynched


Total Day1+Day2 13.5
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 10 2011 09:39 GMT
#1518
Hm. All right - I won't claim my effort as of now is 100% flawless, as after all, it's only dealing with two days worth of data.

It's really late - good night.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 12 2011 03:37 GMT
#1802
Terrible town.

I did my best to convince you, and yet you blew it.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 12 2011 03:45 GMT
#1805
Hint:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=216644&currentpage=74#1473
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 12 2011 03:47 GMT
#1806
Sure.

My list of suspects remains the same.

  • DropBear
  • ilovejonn
  • AirbladeOrange
  • Varpulis
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 12 2011 03:51 GMT
#1807
Really. I'm disgusted. After all that work I put in, you go ahead and vote on at best mid-tier, completely ignoring the prime suspects based on vote behavior.

Don't expect me to put in any more significant effort into this game. You deserve to lose this.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 12 2011 04:15 GMT
#1821
Sure. Lynch me -_- I really don't care anymore.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 12 2011 04:27 GMT
#1825
You expect me to spend another 3-4 hours recording every single vote, when I know it won't be heeded? Notice how a. none of the townies actually cared to read it, and b. my suspects are actually trying to frame me back as a red because they feel threatened. GG
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 12 2011 04:30 GMT
#1827
On May 12 2011 13:26 Mig wrote:
You have a ridiculous attitude orglove considering you didn't post for more than an entire day. Then you could have made the deciding vote but instead you let your vote not count and then post bashing the town 30 min later.

You talk about all the work you put in but you didn't post for what like 40 hours? And you are surprised no one went with your ideas after you completely disappear?



Uh, I have lives like anyone else. I think I spent enough time on Day 2 of this game given it took like 6 hours to take the data, think of reasonable factors, apply the patterns, write up a convincing summary.

And yet you guys would rather listen to ineffective and at best circumstantial evidence without looking at hard data.

I can't change your behaviors.

But you guys also can't force me to put in all that effort again, when I know it'll go to waste.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
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