EPTTL Mafia XXXIX - Page 3
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On May 06 2011 05:33 redtooth wrote: Zzzz. I didn't upset anybody? Errr I upset >half the goddamn town already, not to mention Chaoser personally. Also, please understand the value of finding town. It really isn't as sexy as finding scum but just as valuable. If you're prosecuting for the sake of prosecuting, gtfo. You should be prosecuting for the sake of finding scum and eliminating the options seems pretty valuable to me. Also, you make no sense. Why would I be scared of pissing off Kurumi and Irish? It would make me more town-looking if anything. Secondly, why does my smurf matter to you? I mean you're really pushing for it to get revealed but I really don't get why. Is it a lynch-all-liars thing? Maybe I'm just embarrassed about how bad I played. Maybe I got inactivity lynched. Who knows but I mean the only reason you would look for it is to see my meta but you have plenty of that already. Please explain to me the following: What does lying about another game have to do with my role in this game? Wait a second, redtooth, I thought you considered Kurumi and Irish to be noobtown before, did you change your mind? | ||
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On May 06 2011 05:41 redtooth wrote: Irish I still think is town. Kurumi, I'll have to check again. Still leaning towards town though. Actually, where the hell did you even get that line of thought from my previous post? You said you were checking Kurumi, and I assumed pissing off Kurumi and Irish refered to calling them out on their scummy behavior. | ||
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On May 06 2011 06:17 redtooth wrote: AKA tunneling. See scumtells from everything I say don't you. Well whatever, I'll play along for now - I said that the act of pissing off Kurumi and Irish would have made me seem protown since they were getting bandwagoned hard and I would have fit right in with the rest of you all. Instead I kicked the beehive and now (somehow) stand accused of pandering them. I did check out Kurumi. Less confident that he's town but he's still leaning town nonetheless. We'll see. I don't like realvoting (as opposed to baitvoting) early, especially if I'll probably be around for the deadline and can actually make a difference in the count. If voting was to end 5 minutes from now, I'd put it on Chaoser just out of protest. If I had to be the tiebreaker between Kurumi and KillerSOS, I'd probably put it on Killer. If I had to be the tiebreaker between Kurumi and Irish, I'd probably put it on Chaoser simply because I don't want to be anywhere near those ridiculous lynches. Is it tunneling if you admit that I´m right, that calling Irish and Kurumi scum would be protown right now? | ||
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On May 06 2011 06:33 redtooth wrote: I am busy today. We will probably end up lynching Kurumi. I was going to ask whether you would want to request a Day Vigi hit on Irish since you're so confident (70% is absolutely ridiculous IMO but you might just like higher numbers) but it's too late and our response would take too long. Worst case scenario, we fumble the lynch and do have a double-townkill round. Wouldn´t wasting a day-vigilante be a bit of a waste? | ||
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On May 06 2011 06:44 Forumite wrote: It's not a waste if it's a 70% chance of scumhit. If I was the one pushing it, I'd take those odds anyday. If it really was 70%, the net expected results aren't too bad either:Wouldn´t wasting a day-vigilante be a bit of a waste? - 70% chance of occurring - We hit Irish, he flips red, we catch a scum we wouldn't have caught otherwise. Net of +1 at the cost of a Day Vigi shot. - 30% chance of occurring - We hit Irish, he flips green, we stop the bandwagon on Kurumi and save a townie. Net of 0 at the cost of a Day Vigi shot.[/QUOTE] Where does 70/30 come from? | ||
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On May 06 2011 06:51 redtooth wrote: It's not a waste if it's a 70% chance of scumhit. If I was the one pushing it, I'd take those odds anyday. If it really was 70%, the net expected results aren't too bad either: - 70% chance of occurring - We hit Irish, he flips red, we catch a scum we wouldn't have caught otherwise. Net of +1 at the cost of a Day Vigi shot. - 30% chance of occurring - We hit Irish, he flips green, we stop the bandwagon on Kurumi and save a townie. Net of 0 at the cost of a Day Vigi shot. What does 70/30 come from? | ||
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On May 06 2011 07:00 AirbladeOrange wrote: Please don't use any vigilante actions now. It's way too soon without having much to go on. These percentages don't really mean anything and anyone advocating the use of our blue roles at this point is not having the town's best interests in mind. Quoted for visibility | ||
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On May 06 2011 06:59 Kurumi wrote: Again I stayed up for Mafia a bit too long,but I just want to see how it goes,so I will be lurking from my PSP in bed. Just a thought: I flip red,Irish and redtooth are suspicious. 3 Scum giveaway on Day1? Really? I don't think it is possible. I flip blue and people can't understand how I managed to get myself lynched I flip green and Irish and redtooth are not as suspicious,but every person nitpicking and tunneling me is now suspicious,together with bandwagoners and lurkers emerging just to vote on me. + Show Spoiler + I will flip rainbow,maybe even double one If you are blue, now´s the time to roleclaim. On May 06 2011 07:00 redtooth wrote: This is the last time I'm helping you. Seriously, stop acting like a baby and do the reasoning yourself. You're quickly losing any credibility you have with your empty questioning. Chaoser stated that he was 70% sure Irish was scum. That is the "70" part of 70/30. The "30" part of 70/30 comes from when you subtract 70 from 100 and then you get 30. Why are you arguing that day-vigilante is a good move by using probabilities you yourself think are wrong? | ||
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##Unvote: redtooth ##Vote: Kurumi | ||
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It was really too good to be true to find scum during the first day. At least we got some analysis to work with, one way or another. @Cthsazsa Not much to say, questions are often short posts, and you don´t burn a day-vigi to make sure a lynch sticks. About the bandwagon, there really wasn´t any support to lynch redtooth, so I moved back to kurumi to make sure the vote couldn´t be redirected during the last minute by Mafia. Satisfied? | ||
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On May 07 2011 13:49 DropBear wrote: What redtooth is doing is derailing town. Don't listen to him. Before his big "reorganisation" people were looking at who voted for Kurumi. Now discussion is being dominated by rules on how we should post. He is trying to shift the focus of town away from scumhunting. If this isn't pushing Mafia objectives I don't know what is. I urge everyone to continue posting analysis and prodding people. Instead of his rules, I offer two: 1. Keep it structured 2. Back it up with evidence. That's all you need! Continue looking at people, keep hunting! I agree with what Dropbear is saying here. Redtooth is posting a lot about rules, and while it may look nice, they don´t help in scumhunting. Earlier the discussion was on Kurumi and Irish, and since Irish came under suspicion, he´s stopped posting. Furthermore the mislynch of Kurumi seems to make people forget that once many actually considered Irish a stronger candidate for a lynch than Kurumi. We were wrong about Kurumi, but that doesn´t make Irish a confirmed Town. Unfortunately I don´t have any evidence for or against, since Irish hasn´t posted since page 22! My vote will stay on Irish_Punk13 until he shows up and gives a good explanation for himself. #Vote: Irish_Punk13 | ||
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On May 07 2011 17:55 DropBear wrote: Node, you put out a call for subs. Is it possible to find out which players are requesting replacement and why? There are a lot of people lurking and this information is relevant. I´d like to chime in. I fear Irish is taking his "lurking to avoid suspicion" a bit too far. If he´s replaced then the new player will probably blame having to read through the thread, staying under the radar even longer. | ||
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On May 06 2011 14:36 kevconsim wrote: I would just like to say hello and that i think ur scum because you spelled my name wrong. I have been following the thread a little bit and will have my full opinion of people tomorrow but as of now and when i was told i could start posting. I AM TIRED I´m looking forward to hearing his analysis of the game so far. | ||
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Thanks for your extensive analysis =P | ||
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On May 08 2011 03:56 ilovejonn wrote: I confused myself there. What my main point is, is that I think Beneather should have voted who he thought was scum, instead of last minute going on the bandwagon with NO explanation at all to seem to blend in with the majority of the people. It felt like his mentality was since the majority of town thinks Kurumi needs to be lynched, it would be silly of me to not go with the town's decision. Perhaps my logic is faulty, but my bigger scum read on him is still the activity level change. If he decides to come back with an explanation, I'll reconsider my vote. About Beneather I am having a hard time getting a scumread on Beneather. There´s just not enough to go on. Even the late vote doesn´t guarantee a scum, it could just have been a vote to avoid a modkill, and thrown on Kurumi because he didn´t have any opinion, and he just wanted to get a vote in where it didn´t really matter. It´s hard to get a scumread on him, even if he´s extremely anti-town by hardcore lurking, but anti-town =/= scum. For now I´d prefer to wait with lynching him until after the next day, because I´m hoping he gets modkilled. | ||
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On May 08 2011 04:29 ilovejonn wrote: In that case, would you not think Irish would get modkilled as well? I can only hope. It feels like people forgot of the accusations on Irish, and I´m keeping my vote on him so people don´t forget. I don´t like the embarassed silence after the mislynch. How often does Town make a correct lynch during the first day anyway? | ||
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On May 08 2011 04:29 ilovejonn wrote: In that case, would you not think Irish would get modkilled as well? I can only hope. It feels like people forgot of the accusations on Irish, and I´m keeping my vote on him so people don´t forget. I don´t like the embarassed silence after the mislynch. How often does Town make a correct lynch during the first day anyway? | ||
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