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On May 09 2011 01:15 sandroba wrote:
@DropBear Do you really think that if he was blue he would have posted what a great scumhunter he was on past games?
If you are blue, you try to help but hide. Now that he has been called out, he is defending himself. He doesn't want to get lynched. An argument that he is scum because he talks himself up is completely irrelevant.
I have switched my vote to you. You have been present on every major bandwagon so far.
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Alright I managed to get Uni-fi going so I can post at uni now!
It's coming down to Amber vs Cthsazsa.
I am backing Amber to the hilt. I voted Cthsazsa day 1 and I will do so again.
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On May 09 2011 11:16 chaoser wrote:
Ok, so I think I've gathered enough data. I am a Detective. I'm pretty sure mafia aren't going to let me live tonight. I checked Amber last night and he came up red. That's why I've been tunneling so hard idiots...
VOTE AMBER
Ok, this changes things. What role did he come back as? There are millers as well, but I'm much more inclined to vote with you now.
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EBWOP, if you are correct, this pretty much clears Sandroba as well.
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On May 09 2011 11:21 chaoser wrote:
He came back as mafia? wtf lol what do you mean what role?
Mafia Goon? Mafia Roleblocker? It comes back with a specific role according to the OP
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If Amber is cleared, we kill chaoser, sandroba and orgolove.
If Amber is red, chaoser is cleared, sandroba is cleared, redtooth probably is as well, maybe even Cthasza.
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On May 09 2011 11:40 Cthsazsa wrote:
Scum are going to be switching their votes to Amber as well since he's been caught. We should keep those who didn't vote for him/gave poor reasons to believe he was town in mind.
And as I recall someone claimed to be confident that he was blue
Yeah it was me lol. I made a massive post about how town I thought he was.
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On May 09 2011 11:47 sandroba wrote:
@DropBear I resent you for calling me scum =P
Yeah well if Amber does flip red, sorry about that haha.
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I feel like such an idiot now. Sorry to chaoser and sandroba. Alright reassessment time.
Medic on chaoser. I now feel that sandroba is cleared too, possibly Cthazsa as well. They are also good medic choices. We have killed 2 mafia but 4 blues are dead too so we need to keep chaoser alive.
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Can Mafia roleblock their own members? Does it affect their KP if they do?
As far as I can tell only GGQ claimed that he was roleblocked last night.
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On May 09 2011 17:53 Forumite wrote:
Mafia killpower isn´t linked to their roles, but their number, so I´d say no, but waiting for host to answer.
I ask this because last game I was mafia and I asked BrownBear if we could direct hits at our own players. He told me that we could, but if we roleblocked one of our own members we would lose a KP because a mafia nightkill was considered a night action.
If mafia can't roleblock their own players, then it means either that GGQ is lying about his roleblock claim, is mafia and they used it on someone they killed (likely KillerSOS) or that he's telling the truth and he's town.
We used the roleblocking last game as a large part of our strategy to discredit people, but slightly differently as we had 2 roleblockers. If GGQ is scum it is possible he faked his roleblock claim.
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EBWOP: Conversely, if roleblocking one of their own players costs a KP, then GGQ is cleared as telling the truth because 3 people died night 1.
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On May 09 2011 18:28 Node wrote:Show nested quote +On May 09 2011 17:31 DropBear wrote:
Can Mafia roleblock their own members? Does it affect their KP if they do?
As far as I can tell only GGQ claimed that he was roleblocked last night. If a roleblocker were to use their ability on a mafia member, the mafia would "lose" that member for that night. If that would be the tipping point for KP, the mafia would lose a KP that night.
They can just as easily not use the roleblocker's ability at all, though.
I didn't even think of them not using it 
So the situation is, either GGQ is Mafia and lied about his roleblock, or he is clean and was telling the truth. I'm back to where I was before :/
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Actually losing a member night 1 would not have been a tipping point, so I've proved even less than I originally thought. It is still conceivable that they roleblocked him and he is telling the truth AND he's mafia.
This is getting me anywhere so I'm going to drop it.
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Actually Node, one more question. Can the roleblocker block themselves or can they only block other mafia goons and the godfather?
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On May 09 2011 18:52 Forumite wrote:Show nested quote +On May 09 2011 18:45 DropBear wrote:
Actually Node, one more question. Can the roleblocker block themselves or can they only block other mafia goons and the godfather? Again, no point. Roleblocking themselves and withholding the roleblock is the same thing. Roleblockers don´t have to use their ability every night.
Yeah good point, ok I'll drop this.
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Good work chaoser. Sorry I accused you
After GGQ's flip we are down to the godfather and 2 goons. More roleblock claims are outright lies.
On May 10 2011 12:44 ilovejonn wrote:Props to chaoser for his scum-hunting abilities, I'm really amazed at his confidence for going after Amber and GGQ. I'd have to agree we either had a stupid/afk medic, or this is a no medic setup. Looking at the list of players however, we had 2 day vig modkills, 1 night vig killed by the mafia, and 1 vig that hasn't claimed. With that many KP I'm leaning towards the probability that there aren't any medics. The vigi should claim early as that would prevent mafia from fake claiming that shot later on. To people suspecting me, I'd like to remind you guys of chaoser's awesome scum-hunting abilities.Show nested quote +On May 09 2011 12:42 chaoser wrote:
Actually I take back what I said about ilovejonn, he seems townie enough in his posts so far, I don't remember why I felt red about him. Maybe a misplaced feeling. Even though he fake claimed DT, hitting Amber and GGQ with analysis alone is pretty damn pro. I know for sure I'm townie and that chaoser's read on me is correct. I might have been on the wrong lynches due to circumstances, but remember, being wrong doesn't mean being scum. I'll make sure to try my best to help us win, but for now I am going to bed.
You should definitely be on the agenda today. Chaoser may have been right the first time. I've been worried about you since early in the game.
Sinani and EternalMisfit are the others. We never got the analysis from chaoser on EternalMisfit and he chose not to on ilovejonn. I suggest lynch Sinani today and we pressure the other two.
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On elmizzt
I know we are focusing on the three others, but I'd like to bring an extra one to the table. There has been some interaction between him and EternalMisfit.
Voting pattern:
Day 1 votes redtooth
Day 2 votes Beneather, then the last person to switch to Amber[Light].
He has played one previous mafia game in which he was a mafia goon, Surprisingly normal mini-mafia 1.
First up, an early defence of Irish_Punk13. Note that it is a subtle defence, not an outright one.
On May 04 2011 14:48 elmizzt wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2011 14:46 orgolove wrote:
Is Irish a new player? Could make sense if he's new - he wouldn't want his first game end so quickly. Irish seems like he's claiming to be a pretty experienced player, what with him linking to a Mafia group outside TL that he is a member of.
Attack on Kurumi and FoS on redtooth
Next are three pushes on Cthasza. At this point lots of people, including Chaoser, were ignoring the Jackal/Cthazsa exchange.
Here is the explanation for his vote on redtooth. It comes with an interesting exchange with kitaman27.
On May 06 2011 04:40 elmizzt wrote:Show nested quote +On May 06 2011 04:30 kitaman27 wrote:Redtooth He calls chaoser out for being too safe, yet rather than calling anyone out as scum, he posts a town list. It seems as if he doesn't want to upset anyone so early in the game. On May 05 2011 02:20 kitaman27 wrote:On May 04 2011 21:37 redtooth wrote:
@orgolove - The first vote was a joke between me and HeavonEarth (who I know very well from LoL days) where I wasn't in the game at all and just decided to poke at him anyways. On October 24 2010 18:01 redtooth wrote:
##vote Kitaman27 I assure everyone, there was no inside joke taking place when this vote was cast. The fact that you were smurfing in a previous game doesn't bother me, but what interests me is why would you lie about it. I called him out earlier on a lie, not because I care that he was smurfing, but to see how he responds and he completely ignores it. The way he disappears after stirring the pot makes him look shifty, but he claims to have real life obligations, which makes it tough to tell if he is lurking or not. I haven't forgotten about redtooth's dodge of the proof that he was lying either. I'm putting in my vote for him unless he posts an explanation. More on redtooth
Here are some of his explanation for voting for Beneather:
On May 08 2011 11:54 elmizzt wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2011 11:53 kitaman27 wrote:On May 08 2011 11:52 elmizzt wrote:On May 08 2011 11:47 kitaman27 wrote:On May 08 2011 11:38 GGQ wrote:On May 08 2011 11:36 kitaman27 wrote:On May 08 2011 11:31 elmizzt wrote:On May 08 2011 03:15 ilovejonn wrote:I think people need to think more about their votes. Sure you guys suspect redtooth, but like he said, is he really your BEST lynch for the day? Remember our most important KP comes from our votes. If you do not entirely or at least have a very high probability of thinking he is scum, I'd suggest reconsidering your vote to someone who you think has a higher chance than redtooth being scum. Today however, my vote is going on Beneather based on 2 quotes. On May 03 2011 06:44 Beneather wrote:
Really looking forward to playing this game :D lol. Going to be extremely active (: On May 05 2011 08:19 Beneather wrote:On May 05 2011 08:13 Jackal58 wrote:
[quote]
Scum aren't a threat????
I know where my vote is going.
Mafia slip :o Even if they do not participate in the discussion they still kill two of us. If they're inactive that means that they're lurking and don't want to get in to arguments to put suspicion on them so they do not get lynched. Pressuring inactives will make them active and find out if they're actually scum. The dude was seriously pumped before the game and even said he'd be extremely active. Once he got his role he became a total lurker. As pointed out by someone else, most of his posts talks about lurkers and inactives yet he does not consider himself being one! Extremely suspicious to me. Seems to me he does not know what to do after getting the scum role and just pretends to be away. On the second quote, notice how Cthsazsa raised a lot of suspicions as being scum. If we look at it this way, Beneather and Cthsazsa being on the same scum team, Beneather calling Cthsazsa on the mafia slip was like a little reminder from a person on your team. "Hey you slipped better watch what you say next time!" And then who does he decide to vote on at the end of the day? Kurumi! The easiest wagon to go on. If he thought Cthsazsa was scum, why didn't he decide to vote him? ##Vote: Beneather This is the only hard evidence I've seen so far. I'm voting beneather for now unless he says something to change my mind. Is this going to be your only post of the day cycle? You're doing to good job blending in... And all you're doing is vaguely questioning people. Post something solid. Heh looks who's talking? You've got one post yourself this cycle. You mentioned you would post your thoughts tomorrow evening. We're still waiting. On May 08 2011 11:38 elmizzt wrote:On May 08 2011 11:36 kitaman27 wrote:On May 08 2011 11:31 elmizzt wrote:On May 08 2011 03:15 ilovejonn wrote:I think people need to think more about their votes. Sure you guys suspect redtooth, but like he said, is he really your BEST lynch for the day? Remember our most important KP comes from our votes. If you do not entirely or at least have a very high probability of thinking he is scum, I'd suggest reconsidering your vote to someone who you think has a higher chance than redtooth being scum. Today however, my vote is going on Beneather based on 2 quotes. On May 03 2011 06:44 Beneather wrote:
Really looking forward to playing this game :D lol. Going to be extremely active (: On May 05 2011 08:19 Beneather wrote:On May 05 2011 08:13 Jackal58 wrote:
[quote]
Scum aren't a threat????
I know where my vote is going.
Mafia slip :o Even if they do not participate in the discussion they still kill two of us. If they're inactive that means that they're lurking and don't want to get in to arguments to put suspicion on them so they do not get lynched. Pressuring inactives will make them active and find out if they're actually scum. The dude was seriously pumped before the game and even said he'd be extremely active. Once he got his role he became a total lurker. As pointed out by someone else, most of his posts talks about lurkers and inactives yet he does not consider himself being one! Extremely suspicious to me. Seems to me he does not know what to do after getting the scum role and just pretends to be away. On the second quote, notice how Cthsazsa raised a lot of suspicions as being scum. If we look at it this way, Beneather and Cthsazsa being on the same scum team, Beneather calling Cthsazsa on the mafia slip was like a little reminder from a person on your team. "Hey you slipped better watch what you say next time!" And then who does he decide to vote on at the end of the day? Kurumi! The easiest wagon to go on. If he thought Cthsazsa was scum, why didn't he decide to vote him? ##Vote: Beneather This is the only hard evidence I've seen so far. I'm voting beneather for now unless he says something to change my mind. Is this going to be your only post of the day cycle? You're doing to good job blending in... Yea, I'm not a heavy poster in mafia, but I read everything. And don't you think posting less would be sticking out, and posting more blending in? No, posting less allows you to lurk with the 10 others that have only a handful of posts, including the guy you just voted against, Beneather. Posting more allows us to have a better idea of where you stand and will eventually result in scum slips if you are red. Then why did I stick out to you?  Because I'm looking for scum. Are you concerned about sticking out? Make up your mind. Am I doing a "to good job blending in" or sticking out?
This exchange is very odd. I'd like the opinions of others on it. How could he think that posting less is sticking out, yet he is pushing Beneather for not posting much? No opinion of the lurking of Amber is given.
In surprisingly normal mini, he pushed another inactive player as a lynch target. Also note that many of his posts are one-liners, another trait he displayed in Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia.
CONCLUSION
elmizzt defended Irish_Punk13 covertly at the beginning of the game.
elmizzt has directly attacked Kurumi and Beneather who have flipped town. He also heavily went after Cthsazsa who at this point is almost definitely town.
He waited until the last possible moment to switch to Amber.
His posting is very similar to how he was Mafia in Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia 1.
He is contributing very little, mostly one-liners.
He has a very strange explanation for his lack of activity.
I think he is worth looking at as well.
EternalMisfit is next on my analysis list.
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I forgot to say that elmizzt refers to Amber at absolutely no time until the last second vote switch.
It's like he didn't even know he existed.
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On EternalMisfit and ilovejonn's accusation of him
First EM's voting pattern:
Day 1 he voted Kurumi
Day 2 he originally voted for sandroba, then switched to Amber[Light] after chaoser's claim.
Analysis of EM has already been provided by ilovejonn. Note that ilovejonn is also on the table today. This makes me feel that they can't both be mafia.
Analysis of ilovejonn on Night 1 by me is here.
Please note the contradictions between his accusation of EternalMisfit and his own behaviour. He accuses EM of being scummy for FoSing Airblade yet he does it himself (see my analysis). Most of these accusations of EM are rubbish if you go over them again.
CONCLUSION
I think EM is town.
I think ilovejonn is scum, as is elmizzt.
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EPT
