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On April 24 2011 04:14 freestalker wrote:hey fez, thanks for coming back. Just one hint - it's not allowed to edit posts  if you have some issue with your post, edit it/write what you want different in a new post.
Oh shit. Yea It was just editing the # next to the Vote and changing "and that makes two votes for Enervate" after my vote to just putting it in parenthesis after my post. I hope it doenst get me Mod killed =(
I've only ever played mafia on IRC
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##Unvote
Sorry I was at a horn concert and doing some other stuff as well.
First, looking at this mathematically there are 11 players, 3 of which are mafia. If you randomly choose a person there is a approx. 27% chance of getting it right. However, choosing randomly is a bad idea since you never know if you're lynching an important member (cop or medic).
The cop should look up a random member that isn't himself(obviously). That means there is a 3 in 10 chance of him being right (30%). If he is right, he should be able to hint to everyone else who is mafia. That leaves everyone else voting on another person. If you know who the cop/detective is, that leaves a 3 in 9 chance (33%) of being right. That's from 1/5 to 1/3 probability of being right. I don't know how well this works for day one but numbers are fun =].
----- Break for other half---
Leadership for townies is essential, and right now it looks like Conversion and Freestalker are the two most active in leading conversation and topics. Unless one of them slips up, I'd refrain from killing either of them for now.
Silent members have three possibilities:
1)They're trying to hide
2)They're lazy or disinterested in the game
3)It's a holiday and they're traveling
Going through we have these people being pretty inactive:
-jaminz: a few filler posts, nothing as contribution to the thread, pointing fingers
-aScle: one post?
-Enervate: very little posting as well
These players have said very little or immediately start pointing fingers (Enervate) when they start pointing. However, it doesn't make sense to choose him because he hasn't bothered defending any accusations or contributing anything to support his claim.
aScle and Jaminz have had very little to contribute. Their posts have little to no content and have not been active in general. Also, Jaminz has been very ready to point fingers but has little supporting evidence. I'll vote for him since he's just detracting from town synergy.
So, unless he can defend himself:
##vote Jaminz
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On April 24 2011 04:50 Rising_Phoenix wrote:
##Unvote
Sorry I was at a horn concert and doing some other stuff as well.
First, looking at this mathematically there are 11 players, 3 of which are mafia. If you randomly choose a person there is a approx. 27% chance of getting it right. However, choosing randomly is a bad idea since you never know if you're lynching an important member (cop or medic).
The cop should look up a random member that isn't himself(obviously). That means there is a 3 in 10 chance of him being right (30%). If he is right, he should be able to hint to everyone else who is mafia. That leaves everyone else voting on another person. If you know who the cop/detective is, that leaves a 3 in 9 chance (33%) of being right. That's from 1/5 to 1/3 probability of being right. I don't know how well this works for day one but numbers are fun =].
----- Break for other half---
Leadership for townies is essential, and right now it looks like Conversion and Freestalker are the two most active in leading conversation and topics. Unless one of them slips up, I'd refrain from killing either of them for now.
Silent members have three possibilities:
1)They're trying to hide
2)They're lazy or disinterested in the game
3)It's a holiday and they're traveling
Going through we have these people being pretty inactive:
-jaminz: a few filler posts, nothing as contribution to the thread, pointing fingers
-aScle: one post?
-Enervate: very little posting as well
These players have said very little or immediately start pointing fingers (Enervate) when they start pointing. However, it doesn't make sense to choose him because he hasn't bothered defending any accusations or contributing anything to support his claim.
aScle and Jaminz have had very little to contribute. Their posts have little to no content and have not been active in general. Also, Jaminz has been very ready to point fingers but has little supporting evidence. I'll vote for him since he's just detracting from town synergy.
So, unless he can defend himself:
##vote Jaminz
Only issue with that is that if the cop outs himself right away, the mafia will know who he is and whack him, unless the medic heals him that night. So either we lose our cop right away or have two of our speciality units incapacitated for a night, leaving the mob free to thin our ranks.
Its not a bad idea but I'm pointing out the downside. Devil's advocate is fun ^_^
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Also, updated vote count
Enervate 2
pHelix Equilibra 2
aScle 1
Jaminz 1
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Still waiting on a lot of the inactives..
In my honest opinion, cop should check an inactive. It'll turn out to three outcomes, probably 2 or 3 since inactives tend to often be blue roles/mafia
Writing in first person, don't take this as me being cop or anything.
1) Confirmed townie. Oh well, let's hope I get a better result tomorrow. I can defend this townie to death because I know he's town.
2) Confirmed blue role. Nice! Now I know who the medic/cop is. I can act very vocal and hint for the medic to protect me or hint DT to check someone I wouldn't check in order to get 2 checks done in one night.
3) Confirm mafia. Well, now I have to tunnel him hard and hope town follows my analysis and lynches him.
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the cop doesn't have to role claim to find enough evidence and push the conviction on others. Roleclaiming is probably a good option only once there are like 1-2 mafia left and he knows who they are, or if mafia is claiming they are a cop and the real cop knows one other mafia member (netting 2 mafia for 1 cop), etc. If medic manages to figure out who cop is before he roleclaims, he should be the only target to heal.
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##Vote HardCorey
Pressure vote.
Who are your scum reads? What's your opinion on policy/inactive lynching?
Who do you believe town should lynch on day 1? Do you disagree/agree with any of the opinions put forth by town so far?
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Ok I'm checking this thread now. I don't have that much time to check this thread on the weekends. I usually check during class. Don't vote for me.
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Lol I started to edit my previous post but then I remembered we are not supposed to edit. About my earlier accusations, I was just kidding. I felt like saying something else besides "gl hf".
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hmmmm, well I guess thats good enough for me to unvote you.... for now =p
##Unvote
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ah poop
forgot to bold
##Unvote
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vote update
Enervate 1
pHelix Equilibra 2
aScle 1
Jaminz 1
HardCorey 1
what happens in the event of an even vote?
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5. In the event of a tie the person with the most votes first is lynched
OP has everything covered, usually.
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lol my bad, yea I just went back and read that. My bad >_<
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On April 24 2011 05:16 freestalker wrote:
the cop doesn't have to role claim to find enough evidence and push the conviction on others. Roleclaiming is probably a good option only once there are like 1-2 mafia left and he knows who they are, or if mafia is claiming they are a cop and the real cop knows one other mafia member (netting 2 mafia for 1 cop), etc. If medic manages to figure out who cop is before he roleclaims, he should be the only target to heal.
I was just looking at it mathmatically. I know cop would have to roleclaim for the probability thing to work, but it was more of a probability discussion than a strategy discussion. If cop hints too strongly he's a cop than he's going to get whacked probably since he has the ability to really push people to make a vote.
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Hey guys, I'm traveling right now so I can't make a big post (writing this from my phone), but I'll make a bigger post with my analysis/opinions on everyone later. Should happen in a few hours!
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After reading the above posts. I believe the silent ones are the ones to really look out for. I understand the time zone differences. But I would say out of the silent ones. The one that pointed fingers relatively early with no supporting evidence is more suspicious. Phoenix is right, aScle said one thing so far, but then again he looks like he's in a different time zone, so when he does say more than one thing, we'll see.
##Unvote
##Vote Jaminz
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the voting ends in like 8 hours, right?
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I never understand the 24 hr night 48 hr day thing, if to understand it as 48 hr whole day, with 24 being night (aka 50:50 split) or 24 hr night and 48 day (aka 1:2 split).
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On April 24 2011 07:10 freestalker wrote:
the voting ends in like 8 hours, right?
I don't know how the whole day/night thing works. I assume it's gonna be 24 for day and 24 hours for night. I thought it might be 12 day/12 night but guess not =]
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EPT
