Sleeper Cell Mafia
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Impervious
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On April 25 2011 07:38 GMarshal wrote: Bread-crumbing already huh? LYNCH HIM! Too bad I noticed "I got a strange role" is a five word phrase! trying to communicate with your buddies... ##Vote: tnkted Honestly, I'm not sure what to think at this point. A phrase like that indicates he's not a normal citizen, however, I'm not sure what he actually is. I mean, I can't see a single reason why any role would say that..... It gives away that you have a role..... | ||
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On April 25 2011 07:47 tnkted wrote: It makes perfect sense once you see the role. I might actually claim pretty early this game. Debating the merits of it. The problem is that if you claim as a townie, you're dead by tomorrow..... Unless there's some kind of role that's not listed in the OP that would prevent you from dying..... Which would be weird..... | ||
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I think in this setup; the sleeper agents would want the game to go on as long as possible. This would allow more communication, as well as the ability to only kill non-agent positions (rather than mislynch). Once they've identified each other, this will quickly change, however. Then again, the longer the game goes on, the more likely it is that the intelligence analyst can identify the reds and then claim who they all are. The downside is that they need to claim and give the town their info before they die..... I'm not sure how this is going to play out, but it's going to require a different play style than a conventional mafia game. I'm not sure who will benefit more from a shorter game, and who will benefit more from a longer game. Also, I'd be looking for any unusual word choices/phrases that a player could use to help identify themselves to/complete a clue they left the sleeper agents. Unfortunately, we probably won't know what the clues will really mean, but it could lead us to the cell leader, or a red faking as the cell leader to take pressure off the leader. That all being said, I think we need to at least pressure people during the day. While it would suck to pressure a blue role, it's more likely that we'd pressure a red role, which could lead us to an early advantage through a good lynch. And anyone who is lurking will not be an asset to the town, so they're definitely good choices to pressure, if we don't have a lead on anyone else. I know there was something else I thought of earlier, but I didn't write it down, and I didn't post it cause iGrok told us to stop posting until the game started -_- | ||
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On April 25 2011 12:27 GGQ wrote: In my experience, a short game means a mafia sweep with no losses while a longer game means at least a few mafia get killed. So I don't think the mafia wants the game to go on as long as possible at all. While I agree that traditional mafia games that are short are usually sweeps, it really helps when you know for sure who your allies are..... This isn't a normal mafia game..... | ||
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I think we should talk about the pros and cons of of double-checking anyone who gets the result of "insufficient analysis", to make it easier on the DT. The pros of double checking are that you are more sure of the result. The cons are that you could be checking someone else instead, therefore checking more people. I really think the cons outweigh the pros in this case. Thoughts? | ||
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On April 25 2011 22:43 Ace wrote: Even if you double checked someone and got "Incomplete Analysis" it's a waste of time. If you get it once and you checked the person because you assumed they were scum it's better to come out with it and play the odds that they are CL and not that you hit the 25% chance you rolled the wrong result. Also there may be other roles not listed in the OP that have this same effect. Whether they are good or bad you won't know so you could end up wasting another day of your check to get you no further than your first check. Just roll with the odds on this one. That's pretty exactly what I was thinking. I just wanted to make sure I'm not alone on this one. | ||
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On April 25 2011 22:39 GMarshal wrote: I like that question, I'll take the first shot at answering it. Now, I'm assuming one person is receiving the message. 1.) Ace- "I'm the pardoner from XXXVIII": with a veteran player like Ace I would be trying to get as much information to him as possible, information is power and even with only a little bit of it I'm sure he could get stuff done 2.) Mr. Wiggles - " mafia will post 'serial killer' " or some other breadcrumb that would allow me to reveal myself to him and then the rest of the team. I might think of a more clever breadcrumb than that, and if it were clever enough I might use it for ace instead. 3.) why- same as for wiggles, as a veteran player both of them are people I could count on to work it into their regular posts without worrying too much about them messing up. Nothing against you, but I haven't played or checked out a game where why has played. I would have put you in the 3rd spot. | ||
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On April 25 2011 22:47 GMarshal wrote: I think the DT should just push for a lynch on the target 75% chance of having the cell leader is worth the gamble of accidentally getting a town player lynched, IMO. Sure it might suck for the town player getting the shit end of the stick, but hey, we die for the greater glory and all that. I also think this is usless discussion that allows scum to blend in, I'm sure the mafia is content to debate this to death, rather than worrying about us sabotaging their cutesy plans. Still I want to see what you guys awnser to Ace's question Actually, you're wrong with the "75%" thing. There's a 1/15 chance that the cell leader will be checked tonight (based on pure percentages). There's a 14/15 chance that a non cell leader will be checked tonight (also based on pure percentages). If the cell leader is checked, it will show up as insufficient analysis. If a non cell leader is checked, it'll show up as insufficient analysis in 25% of the checks. Ultimately, this means that a result of insufficient analysis tonight leads to a 22.2% chance of actually being the cell leader..... IT IS NOT 75%. However, lynching them is still the best move. Assuming 4 sleeper cells and the cell leader, out of a total of 15 people who could be checked, it adds up to about a 50% chance of hitting a red by lynching anyone who gets "insufficient analysis" tonight. When you add in factors like intentionally checking scummy players (increasing your chance of checking the right people), then this is by far the best choice. | ||
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On April 26 2011 05:36 GMarshal wrote: God dammit, I figured out what sand was getting at. He is right, it can be done, the whole mafia team can be informed of who the other members are, in my method they won't find out who the GF is but they *will* know who the entire team is. I *think* its doable in five words too, assuming the team consists of five members or less. Assume that by night 3 the whole mafia team will be aware of the other members are. Time to work on lynching people I guess. Mr.Wiggles, have you figured out why my vote is on you yet? It is doable in 5 words..... Regardless of how many members are on the team..... | ||
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On April 26 2011 07:52 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Also, keep in mind there's a 20 character limit, that's why I'm curious as to how you would let them know the entirety of the team in one message. Don't tell me though, in case the GF doesn't know either. :p Ask me in 3 days. I have a general method for it, so it'll be pretty difficult to catch onto it, even if the cell leader is doing it..... | ||
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On April 26 2011 08:06 Ace wrote: Happy Birthday Wiggles. Impervious can you list your 3 players? I did. On April 25 2011 22:46 Impervious wrote: Nothing against you, but I haven't played or checked out a game where why has played. I would have put you in the 3rd spot. | ||
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On April 26 2011 08:14 Kenpachi wrote: oh ya. do you guys think its funny how Mafia may vote the most protown role to kill which may force Sleeper Cell People to not contribute as much? It's not funny, its smart play by them. | ||
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Btw, in case you guys are watching how people behave/how often they post - I have an exam on Wednesday, and I'm in the middle of moving from one place to another, so my posting may be erratic, without actually being caused by any game changing information that I may come across..... | ||
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On April 26 2011 21:09 Jackal58 wrote: Apparently everybody has gone to sleep. I was thinking the same thing. I went to sleep, came back, and there were 0 new posts..... Granted I only got 6 hrs of sleep, but yea..... Of course, I didn't have anything to contribute, and I still don't really, so I wasn't planning on posting anything..... | ||
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On April 27 2011 02:40 Ace wrote: what is he suspicious of? Saying he might role claim? That isn't a suspicious action at all. You guys are looking for things that aren't there. If someone says hey I have a pretty good role/strange role/interesting role and I might claim then show me how that is scummy behavior. Well, unless we get some kind of confirmation that there are indeed roles not listed in the OP that are in play, his actions are definitely suspicious. Nobody in either of the two blue roles would even dream of bringing that much attention to themselves at this point in the game. Also, I await the revealing of your plan. | ||
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On April 27 2011 02:43 tnkted wrote: It's not specified in the OP. Now can we please stop talking about this? I'll claim day2 if you people are seriously so freaked out. Yes, we're freaked out over it. Especially since I'm not aware of any non-listed roles at the moment. And that's not a good thing, because its also possible that the Reds have unlisted roles/abilities as well..... So I'd like to find out one way or another. And yes, zork, it should be extremely obvious what I am and why I'm acting this way. NO MORE CLUES. You guys are spelling my name wrong btw, its TNK not TDK lol. Now, as for my vote: it's Impervious He's had almost nothing but one liners. Oneliners. Every time. Then he has this gem, reiterating an excuse already given by several people for inactivity: Yes, because oneliners are definitely a scumtell..... Several other people had brought this excuse up already. Wiggles, for example. Trying to blend in? Isnt it better to claim this shit ahead of time, rather than claim it after the fact? Or would you rather discover my behavior changes after a couple of days, and then I claim both the move and the exams as excuses for it? If it would have been better to claim it after the fact, then I guess I'll do that next time I play a game of Mafia. Then we get an actual post of substance: Now, I agree with not focusing on breadcrumbing this game, because its almost impossible for us to catch scum at it. But this post talks about doublechecking people. Now this isn't a scumtell in and of itself, but what is interesting is that he steals the entire content of his post from two other players: I thought both were important things to do. If we're going to try to outsmart the people with red roles, then we need to catch them before their plan (whatever it is) is fully formed..... By giving away the methods we'd expect them to use, they'll know what to avoid doing..... Frankly, it was really dumb to go so in-depth on that subject. And making sure the DT knows what he should be doing is always going to be a good thing. I'm not sure if what you initially said was a major blunder, and you're simply trying to cover it up, or if you genuinely have a non-disclosed role. Part of me wants to actually lynch you tonight, to confirm it either way (seeing as you'll probably be a top target for the mafia). Of course, this could bite us in the ass if you really do have a useful role for the town. And I don't want to waste a check on you to find out either way. First, Sandroba saying "talking breadcrumbs is a waste of time." Then vain suggesting doublechecks. Convinced? I am, at least enough for a day1 lynch. #vote Impervious If that's what it takes to convince you, we're going to have serious problems later on in the game..... | ||
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On April 27 2011 03:01 Ace wrote: The OP makes it quite clear that the possibility exists. Still waiting on more people to post. Really need more activity before I reveal my plan. And if he had one such role, I can't think of any role that would be worthwhile revealing so early in the game, unless it was immune to night kills..... Drawing attention to yourself? Maybe. Actually wanting to reveal? Nope. Also, how often to mafia games have 100% activity? There always seem to be a few who lurk a little too much..... | ||
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On April 27 2011 03:17 Zorkmid wrote: Strategy to make the DTs waste checks on you perhaps? Not exactly a town friendly move, is it? | ||
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kk. | ||
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On April 27 2011 10:56 Zorkmid wrote: I think there's another thread you need to vote in. Already done. over 10 minutes ago. | ||
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On April 27 2011 11:52 Jackal58 wrote: First Impervious isn't new. I'm flattered that you would stand up for me here. While this is far from my first game of mafia, this is only my 3rd game on TL. Thanks for standing up for me, although I'm sure you're still a little buthurt from the results of the Superbowl. <3 GB Packers! | ||
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On April 27 2011 22:49 GMarshal wrote: I realize its night time, but that is no reason to shut up and stop discussion, we have all of twenty four hours to start deciding things like lynches and blue direction. For the sake of discussion I am going to post a list of people I think need DT checks, vigi shots and medic protects. DT Checks Jackal58 - Ace thinks Jackal has been acting scummy, for this reason alone I think a dt should take a look at jackal, the results would be interesting either way Mr. Wiggles - I already pointed out that I am suspicious of him, it would be nice to know definitely, as I know wiggles has the potential to contribute to the town if he is town aligned, if he is not he is very good about scooting along with large vacuous posts GMarshal - DTs should aways check the most vocal players. I consider myself a vocal player, therefore I should be checked Ace - its Ace, as policy he should be checked. Also I find his retraction of the vote on jackal to be unexpected, from seeing previous games with Ace I would have expected him to stick to his guns with the lynch. Impervious- he has many posts, yet oddly enough, not a single one of them stuck in my mind, to me this means his posts have been empty enough to not be memorable, I think that merits a check Vigilante Shots - now its *really* debated whether it is best for vigilantes to shoot night one or not, if the vigi is not in imminent danger and is not confident on his mafia kill I belive in saving the shot for later, however some people subscribe to using it for people they would lynch on policy, e.g. liars, or lurkers. If a vigi *had* to fire tonight I would think the best shot would be at an inactive who might be lurking scum. That is the gist of my suggestions on here Eiii- Lurking, pops up to defend himself, resumes lurking, not a town asset at the moment, so we can do without him GGQ- more of the same deal with Eiii, lurking inactively, hasn't really weighed in on anything. why- with a grand total of four posts all he has done is attack jackal, I dont think he is contributing and we can do without him Vain- I see every one of his posts as either a rehash of old ideas or a non-contribution darm- because I think it would be hilarious to have him die day one this game too (don't actually shoot him for that, it was a joke...) Medic Protects GMarshal- I dont want to die, please dont let me die, I'll go through mafia withdrawal again and it wont be pretty Ace- he is Ace, high profile target and all that, I want him around in the late game. Jackal (maybe) - he is a great endgame player, and I wouldn't mind having him around to scum-hunt in the late game, I don't know how likely it is he will be targeted though. other than that I don't know who scum might go after to be honest, as they risk hitting one of their own whatever they choose to do Alright, so take a gander and debate my list up and down, who did I forget to include ? Who did I include who shouldn't be there? I guess we're going to use traditional mafia lingo in this game..... For the DT checks, I'd also want to know about Ace. He is a great player, which is why I'd want to be sure he's on my side. He's also acting a little weird, and I'm not sure what to make of it at the moment. He would be my check tonight, for sure, unless something happens between now and the end of the night. I'm also confused about why. From what I've seen in the thread, he's held in somewhat high regard (this is my first time playing with him, and I haven't observed a game where he played either, so I don't know myself). With having few posts, and generally unconstructive posting (I know most of mine are also pretty useless, but I've got a lot of them, so I'll eventually write something useful, much like how a room full of monkeys with typewriters will eventually come up with the entire work of Shakespeare), it seems like it would be pretty uncharacteristic of an experienced player. I dont think the vigi is in danger yet..... The chance of getting hit tonight/lyched tomorrow is pretty low, and it will probably be far more useful to have the kill around for later. Also, while there are players we can do without, I really think it would be better to lynch them rather than waste a vigi kill on. So I'd agree, unless the Vigi has a really good lead on one of the members of the mafia, it would be better to save the hit for later. Also, while it would be nice to have a medic on our side (among other roles, such as a veteran), we don't know for sure. It would be better to assume that we don't. We're going to need to assume that we'll lose someone tonight, and at this point, it seems to be pretty unlikely that the mafia will force a kill on one of their own. Another thing to worry about - the mafia just lost a member. Unless Rean was the first person contacted by the GF (which I find very unlikely, although it is possible that the GF made that big of a mistake), then there are probably only 2 more people who have to be contacted..... Which means the mafia should know who each other are. While it's not as useful as being able to discuss at night, like most mafia games, it will help them tremendously. We have to assume that for tomorrow night, they'll be able to be somewhat coordinated..... | ||
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On April 29 2011 00:45 GGQ wrote: The simple fact that Ace didn't die is suspicious enough. Actually, as much as I think Ace is definitely a candidate for a lynch, this is a very bad reason for it. Out of the obvious top 4 players that the mafia would want to eliminate, 1 of them is gone. This does not automatically mean that the other 3 are suspicious..... | ||
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I say we go for it. Right now. Maybe get Ace tomorrow? Although, bum, I don't like how you're already revealing yourself..... I don't think you were in any danger yet, so it seems unnecessary at this point. | ||
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If he really is the DT, his list and reasoning seems pretty solid, and I haven't seen any better ideas..... | ||
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While it is stupid (imo) that bum claimed already, if he is the DT, he'll be a high priority target for the mafia, so they'll take him out at night. I don't see the reasoning for a red claiming as DT. It seems like such a dumb move. It instantly paints a giant target on them when he's still alive the next day. And if the mafia don't eliminate him tonight, then they risk him actually finding a mafia (assuming that Jackal is green). And, of course, if he's green, it could be an interesting play, if you really had a strong read on someone. I don't think it's a good idea to lynch him. Voting for someone other than Jackal, based on some kind of analysis, would be fine if you don't believe bum, but lynching him is really fucking dumb right now. | ||
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On April 30 2011 09:50 VarpuliS wrote: Somebody posted that statistic a while ago. People need to stop using statistics is evidence. They can only get us so far. Analytical reasoning > statistical reasoning in a game of mafia, imo. Agreed, but it shouldn't be discounted so easily either. As for how that is roughly 50%: There are currently 13 players left. Assumption is that there are 3 mafia and 1 GF left. Chance of mafia coming up with "Insufficient Analysis" 3 (number of normal mafia) * 0.25 (chance of then having the result of Insufficient Analysis) * 1/12 (chance of the DT checking any individual) + 1 (GF) * 1.00 (chance of having the result of Insufficient Analysis) * 1/12 = 14.6% (through absolutely random checking). Chances of a townie coming up with "Insufficient Analysis" 8 (number of non-DT townies left) * 0.25 (chance of having the result of Insufficient Analysis) * 1/12 (chance of the DT checking any individual) = 16.7% (also through absolutely random checking). Therefore there is a ~47% chance of Jackal being red, assuming bum is really the DT. So, the real question is whether you believe bum or not. Given the situation, a ~50% chance is pretty damn good. | ||
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Guys..... Even if you don't trust bum's analysis and his check, at least lets get Ace tomorrow..... Have you not seen his recent posting? | ||
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We're on a tightrope right now, as the town..... We have very little room for error, so if there happens to be a vigi left, plz make a good hit. If there's a doc, plz pick the right person. If there's a vet, plz attract enough attention to absorb a hit. | ||
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I thought Ace was playing a little weird before. His "plan" to get the list of players we all consider to be useful scumbuddies led to no surprise, which is a pretty useless play from a player like him. And with how he was pushing for a lynch of bum, I'm 95% sure he's scum. Not sure about GF, but definitely red. | ||
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Unless we've got a better option, Jackal seems to be the next best lynch. | ||
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I'm less convinced that Ace is red now. Not 100% sure he's telling the truth, but more convinced that Jackal is really scum than Ace right now. | ||
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So, even if you don't believe him, leaving him alive for the night is far more useful to us than killing him..... We'll get more information either way. | ||
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On April 29 2011 11:31 Impervious wrote: Statistically, it's a far better choice to lynch anyone who got "insufficient analysis" than to try to check them again. I say we go for it. Right now. Maybe get Ace tomorrow? Although, bum, I don't like how you're already revealing yourself..... I don't think you were in any danger yet, so it seems unnecessary at this point. On April 30 2011 00:53 Impervious wrote: Ok, for those of you who are skeptical of bum, what do you think about lynching him to prove it, to satisfy your curiosity? If he really is the DT, his list and reasoning seems pretty solid, and I haven't seen any better ideas..... Note - sarcasm isn't expressed well over the internet. On April 30 2011 09:08 Impervious wrote: Guys, if bum is in fact the analyst, while there is only a ~25% chance that he's actually the cell leader, there is a ~50% chance of getting a red. That is a pretty damn good chance at the moment. While it is stupid (imo) that bum claimed already, if he is the DT, he'll be a high priority target for the mafia, so they'll take him out at night. I don't see the reasoning for a red claiming as DT. It seems like such a dumb move. It instantly paints a giant target on them when he's still alive the next day. And if the mafia don't eliminate him tonight, then they risk him actually finding a mafia (assuming that Jackal is green). And, of course, if he's green, it could be an interesting play, if you really had a strong read on someone. I don't think it's a good idea to lynch him. Voting for someone other than Jackal, based on some kind of analysis, would be fine if you don't believe bum, but lynching him is really fucking dumb right now. Plz tell me where I said I believed him? I simply couldn't see a good reason to lynch him yet..... And his plan wasn't a bad one, nor was his analysis. What else should I have done? Oh, I could have always done what you did. Which was actually lynch the fucking DT..... I guess lynching a blue role is the smart town play. | ||
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On May 02 2011 02:56 Ace wrote: why are you playing the result? You sure seemed convinced he was a DT before he popped. Oh my bad, I guess posts like this don't mean you believe bum but that everyone else is stupid. Yes, everyone who is town that bandwagoned him is stupid. There, I said it. For reasons stated above. We would have had a lot more useful information right now had he been spared. Regardless of what his actual role was. | ||
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Either you think that sandroba and Ace are both mafia, or you think neither are at this point. I am leaning towards "neither". | ||
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However, do we have a decent chance of finding the 3rd? Possibly. You're one of the candidates for that 3rd. There's a few others as well. We can always go after them today, rather than Ace and sandroba. However, why would the mafia want someone who can intercept messages to survive for another night? If Ace becomes useless tomorrow, or dies tonight, we'll have our answer. And if sandroba dies tonight as well, we'll know enough as well. | ||
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On May 03 2011 03:19 Jackal58 wrote: No change. I'm reverting to the tunneling aggressive asshole. You're fucking scum. Bums check is not a 50/50 proposition. It's 75% town 25% scum. Only scum use scummy numbers Those messages are bullshit and you know it scummy. I switched because I wasn't getting lynched due to bums incompetence. Not my problem scummy. Fuck, man, go learn something about probabilities please. Stop it with spreading this bullshit. | ||
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On May 03 2011 03:28 Ace wrote: I was actually waiting to see if something else happened as I recognized we're pretty much "stuck" here if we screw this up. Still think our best bet is to cut dead weight and see how the night ends up. I would have been up for a switch to darmousseh, however, he's been replaced. I'm waiting to see how active BB is going to be before I do anything like that. I still think Jackal is our best bet at the moment. Especially with how he's been acting recently. | ||
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On May 03 2011 05:11 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Well I know I'm town, so if you're going by the fact that scum is alerting scum still, then that makes Impervious red. I also wouldn't count out the fact that Ace could be inventing the messages if he were Scum just to lead town in the wrong direction. I'm looking at it both ways. If Ace is town: The messages are true There was a message about a Canadian If scum is alerting scum of each others identities, then one of me or Impervious are red, meaning Impervious is Red. It could also be that scum want someone to push to lynch or kill either me or Impervious as well, when it says "Watch", not just "He's", meaning in that case, we're probably both green. If Ace is scum: The messages are most likely false Scum killed GGQ Ace fakes a message referencing the already dead GGQ, and then makes one about Canadians. Ace knows who the rest of his scum team are, and knows neither Impervious nor myself are red. He can now use that to push either of our lynches. That's why I'm not jumping on Impervious either. Ace said he wants to lynch a lurker, but there's not many left. The easiest candidate would be BB, and after that one of you/San/Jackal/Eiii. Lynching San would tell us Ace's alignment, but I'm not sure if we can sacrifice a town player if he's not scum. In that case, Ace is pretty much town, but then we will have killed one of our own, and Ace will most likely die at night. We can lynch Jackal based on the 50% probability that he's red, but we also have to keep in mind that there was RNG. BB replaced darm, who looked scummy, but was barely participating in the thread, so it's hard to get a complete alignment from his words and actions. BB also still hasn't had a chance to say anything yet. I haven't noticed much of Eiii, but I'm going to have to go reread all his posts. If I remember correctly, he wasn't a supporter of the bum lynch. Then there's yourself. you've been lurking pretty hard for a major part of the game, and now claim a bullet-proof, self-aware miller role. This doesn't absolve you from suspicion in my eyes, because that seems like a very easy thing to claim for scum, and explains why you would ever show up red to DT checks if that came up. And, whether Ace is town or not, we'll know more by keeping him alive for the night than we will otherwise. If Ace is red, it seems to be pretty certain that sandroba is also red. If not, I'm pretty certain that both would be green. I'm not sure which it is yet. So, imo, we've gotta go after the 3rd mafia member. darm/BB, Jackal, and Eii are the best choices for that. darm was really quiet, and BrownBear hasn't posted anything since the replacement, so we don't have much to go on. Eii is similar. Jackal came up with the inconclusive from the DT, and was already acting scummy before that. As much as I would rather lynch darm/BB or Eii, Jackal gives us the ~50% chance of hitting a red..... That's better odds than I can give to the others. And, I'm thinking that at this point, if we get it right, we will probably win. If not, we'll probably lose. That's why, unless something game-changing comes up in the next few hours, I'm sticking with my vote for him. | ||
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On May 03 2011 07:28 Ace wrote: The message could mean that a Canadian is Scum, to shoot a Canadian player, to watch what they post in the thread...who knows? Wiggles seems like the most Pro-town player in the game so far so I doubt anyone voting for him. And that's one of the reasons I'm skeptical of you. That message that you "intercepted" makes so little sense. I can't make anything out of it. It's got to apply to me or Wiggles, yea, but it still doesn't make any sense. Wiggles seems to be really pro-town, and I already know that I am town..... | ||
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If we don't get a good lynch right now, it's GG anyways. Whether or not BB is town or mafia. | ||
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I swear, if he does turn out to be GF or red of any kind, any of you guys who have been pushing for other lynches instead are going to be auto day-one lynches from me for now on. | ||
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While we did learn more by lynching a blue and an un-night-killable green, neither of those outcomes favored the town at all. And we didn't learn any information that can help lead us to other reds, even if they did show red. That isn't the case with you. And, now that we can't afford a mislynch, we don't have the ability to take the 50/50 with you and then be able to identify at least 1 or 2 others as reds. We have to get a good one right now. To be honest, even if you're a blue role, you'd have been more useful to the town dead than alive. | ||
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So, out of the players that are left: Neither Ace nor sandroba will die tonight. Everyone knows their fates are intertwined. darmousseh/BrownBear seemed scummy due to inactivity and bandwagoning, but there is nothing conclusive. The mafia probably won't kill him tonight. Same goes for Eiii. Jackal has been a good distraction if he's town, or has had a lot of help staying alive as mafia. He won't die tonight. Wiggles and I have that message about us. I'm not sure what it means, but it applies to one of us. If we get caught up on it, it'll likely cause us problems. The mafia know this, and would probably try to keep us alive, to push Ace's message for a lynch on one of us tomorrow. Although, this is still pretty weak. Which leaves us with VarpuliS. The most pro-town, and the least under suspicion right now. If he doesn't die tonight, I'd be surprised. Why? Because his death leaves us with no information. That is, unless he is actually a member of the Mafia. However, at the same time, him being left alive won't actually tell us much about who the mafia is, because they could kill someone else to try to make VarpuliS look suspicious. So, out of the obvious people who won't be around tomorrow, it seems like it could be me, Wiggles, or VarpuliS. Potentially BrownBear and Eiii, but I find this to be less likely. Why? Because we're the ones who's give away the least information as to who is actually mafia, or will be more difficult to convince the town to lynch in a lylo situation. | ||
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On May 04 2011 08:05 Jackal58 wrote: The only way you can state that Ace won't die tonight is if you're scum and you know Ace is scum That also makes sandroba scum. That's exactly why he won't die tonight. It'll basically confirm sandroba as town, making it much more likely that a mafia member will be targetted for a lynch tomorrow. Think it through, man. Oh, wait, you don't need to. This type of response is exactly what I expected from a red. If you think for a second that scum would let a real DT live through the night you're insane. But no. It's "Neither Ace nor sandroba will die tonight" Your words not mine. It's Sandroba,Ace and you the Canadian. Where did Ace admit to being a real DT? He's not. He claimed that he can intercept messages. There is a fucking massive difference there. The DT check was merely icing on the cake. Now I'm 100% convinced you're scum. | ||
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I can't believe how dumb you are if you think that kind of inconsistency is going to convince anyone. In fact, I'm starting to think that Ace really is the DT. And you really are the GF. The message "Watch the Canadian" could simply mean that your scumbuddy should watch out for me, since I'm the one who's consistently going against you. It actually fits pretty nicely. | ||
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On May 04 2011 10:39 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Impervious, why would you give scum a guide on who would not give town information by dying before scum has sent in their kill? Why? So we could know what to expect for today. | ||
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On May 04 2011 13:06 Ace wrote: By the way I didn't get any messages last night. That's pretty unfortunate. Although, that may also be because the GF didn't send a message out. If so, that could end up helping us. | ||
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On May 04 2011 13:29 Impervious wrote: Why? So we could know what to expect for today. I need to expand on this. So far, the mafia seems to have done a pretty good job with their hits. All I did was point out what was most likely to happen. And it leaves me with the following conclusion (thank you for actually hitting him btw mafia) There's 4 town left. I'm convinced now that Ace and sandroba are blues. I'm green. That leaves 1 other townie who I'm not too sure of. With how Jackal has played (especially his hostile and not very well thought out replies), I'm 100% convinced he's scum. Quite possibly GF. darmousseh/BrownBear has lurked hardocre, and jumped on the bandwagon against town players pretty easily, so I'm fairly certain that he's also red. This leaves 1 mafia I'm not too sure of. The two players left are Wiggles and Eiii. Of the two, Wiggles seems to be most pro-town, so that would make Eiii the last mafia, by default. So, my scum list at the moment is Jackal (probably GF), Eiii, and BrownBear. | ||
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On May 04 2011 13:42 Impervious wrote: I need to expand on this. So far, the mafia seems to have done a pretty good job with their hits. All I did was point out what was most likely to happen. And it leaves me with the following conclusion (thank you for actually hitting him btw mafia) There's 4 town left. I'm convinced now that Ace and sandroba are blues. I'm green. That leaves 1 other townie who I'm not too sure of. With how Jackal has played (especially his hostile and not very well thought out replies), I'm 100% convinced he's scum. Quite possibly GF. darmousseh/BrownBear has lurked hardocre, and jumped on the bandwagon against town players pretty easily, so I'm fairly certain that he's also red. This leaves 1 mafia I'm not too sure of. The two players left are Wiggles and Eiii. Of the two, Wiggles seems to be most pro-town, so that would make Eiii the last mafia, by default. So, my scum list at the moment is Jackal (probably GF), Eiii, and BrownBear. Now I feel like I need to elaborate on that sentence. Varp was one of the people I had a hard time pegging. He was quick to switch votes off of players who were scummy, and I had 2nd thoughts about him, much like how Wiggles wasn't sure about him. With him gone, even though he was town, it's one less person I was having a hard time getting a read off of, and makes it easier for me to believe that Wiggles is town at the same time. Now, the other reason for wanting him gone is actually because it would guarantee that Wiggles and Ace were still kicking. Since I'm pretty sure that both are town, having both around to do some analysis is far better than losing one of them. I haven't played a game with Varp before, but even if I was pretty sure that I'd prefer Ace and Wiggles on my side as well. If the mafia were going to target someone else, their choices would be Ace (veteran player + intercepting messages), Wiggles (gives less info about player alignment + veteran player), me (which wouldn't help them out much at all), or sandroba (which would be detrimental since it would basically confirm Ace as being town). Simply put, if it wasn't Varp dying tonight (if I'm right with who is scum and who is town), then it would have been Wiggles or Ace. And I want both around. Yes, my post yesterday was scummy. That was completely intentional. Now I am pretty sure that I can peg the remaining mafia. | ||
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On May 05 2011 07:48 Eiii wrote: Jackal is getting a lot of heat, but I'm pretty convinced he's town-- his play seems similar/identical to how he played in insane 2. Impervious/Ace are the two active players I think are most suspicious-- I've said why I think ace could be red before, and now looking back on things impervious has moved from thinking ace was red day 1 to completely believing his claim to saying that they 'need to work together'. Ace being kind of sketchy and impervious doing a 180 recently on him smells a lot to me like a CL/sleeper relationship. obviously bb is suspicious because he's still lurking and not doing anything and that sucks Ace was sketchy to me as well. I did vote for him to be lynched on the first day, remember? And I was voicing my suspicion on a few occasions early on. However, a few things have changed my mind. I initially thought that if there were going to be unlisted roles, either a miller and/or a vet and/or a medic would be likely. We have confirmed that non-listed roles are in the game (miller), so a claim of vet seems likely to be legit. And, with how creative the miller's role was, Ace's claim isn't too farfetched either. I was suspicious of it initially, but with the death of our beloved miller, my suspicion has been eased. I don't believe Ace just because he said he's some kind of role similar to a DT, I believe him because sandroba claimed vet before Ace actually spelled out his role. It actually makes a lot of sense. And without being able to directly talk with each other, this is a little too elaborate and creative of a plan for the mafia to fake it so quickly. You, on the other hand, have absolutely nothing going for you. Jackal has looked very scummy, and has a ~50% chance through pure random chance to be red, thanks to the DT check. darmousseh/BB has lurked a lot, which does not help much either. You three are my primary choices for scum, and the fact that you're actually defending Jackal right now doesn't help that imo. | ||
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gj guys! | ||
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On May 06 2011 13:31 Ace wrote: @Impervious: You were so close a few times. When bum claimed and you believed him I was like "damn, guess I actually have to work to get this bastard DT lynched" Tbh, I wasn't too sure he was legit. What I was sure of was that it would have been better to have him alive than dead. Also, sick move with the roleclaim (you and sandroba). | ||
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On May 06 2011 13:59 Jackal58 wrote: I raged. I was trying my damnedest to get off of your hook and he comes in and posts that shit. Why didn't you guys ever lynch me? I tried to. On multiple occasions. | ||
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On May 06 2011 14:56 Jackal58 wrote: I had no idea. Ace turned my head into mush. I'm just disappointed nobody believed my Ace's role is bullshit claim. I think I had Impervious looking at it for a bit. But in the end everybody chose to believe Ace's unbelievable claim. I knew it was a bullshit claim and I was scum. Yea, actually, as soon as Ace claimed I realized it was a possibility. At the same time, it made too much sense. -_- | ||
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On May 07 2011 06:45 Jackal58 wrote: I had the advantage of knowing I voted to kill GGQ (sorry dude) and when he came up dead I knew it wasn't a coincidence. That's when I began to realize I was being left in the dark on purpose. It was one of those things where everything had to come together for it to work right..... And it did..... And it made the entire town look foolish. | ||
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I don't think I made any mistakes in this game, based on the info I had, so I'm pretty happy. Sucks that it turned into such a one-sided affair..... | ||
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Depending on who claimed vet, I was actually going to counterclaim their vet claim, and play for the lynch of Ace and whoever it was. Sandroba was one of the people I had a town reading of at the time, and when he claimed Vet, I was far more certain that both were legit claims than fake claims. It was a brilliant play, and it worked out really, really well. | ||
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And, if it failed, well, we just proved that we would have lost anyways, so what would it have mattered? | ||
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Your role had a bunch of holes in it, and sandroba's claim was essentially ripped off of another mafia game (I had a writeup and name of the role ready, that was related to the game at hand), and without the actual death of GGQ, I wouldn't have bought it. And I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one. | ||
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Then again, he did specify a downside - if he didn't hit a red, he himself would be killed. It wasn't a super role of any kind. | ||
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The chances that the 2 mafia who could vote for GGQ and actually did was so small -_- | ||
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