TL Mafia XXXVIII - Page 3

On April 13 2011 15:26 Protactinium wrote:
Alright guys, now that night is over, I have another announcement to make.

I checked Coagulation last night, and he is Mafia.

Now you may be asking, is Protactinium trying to pull a fast one on me? I thought Assassins couldn't use any night actions till Night 2!

I am, in fact, not an Assassin, as I may have led you all to believe Day 1. I am actually a Detective, and I've found you a Mafia member right from Night 1.

Now why would I claim Assassin Day 1 if I was actually a Detective? It was intentional, and all part of the plan. Unfortunately, I wasn't elected, but at least I had a backup plan. TL towns have a history of wanting to Lynch All Liars, but there is a very good reason that I didn't claim Detective from the start. Just look at Pandain to see why DT claims never work: it's been tried before, and Mafia have every incentive to fake claim DT. Thus, the claim backfired and the entire town jumped on him and tore him to shreds. Not a desireable outcome if you're really a DT, right? And this wasn't the first game where that happened. If you have time, go back and read TL Mafia VIII, where nemY the Detective claimed Detective... and then got jumped by town. I expected the same backlash had I actually roleclaimed Detective, so that's why I went with the Assassin claim. Furthermore, while Mafia are very incentivized to claim DT, they would be stupid to claim Assassin, since if the election bid fails, the actual Assassins will just shoot them Night 2. On the other hand, claiming DT is fairly safe for mafia, as after the intial backlash, the claimed DT will generally be ignored for the rest of the game. Assassin claims also help draw out the Mafia, and as the Pandain example shows, DT claims don't have the same effect, since everyone attacks the DT claim and causes chaos.

And if you're saying this is a bus and I'm Mafia, you wouldn't be saying that after I net a Mafia Night 2. And then Night 3.

The next question is assassin numbers. Remember how I claimed that there were 3 assassins? That was actually a ploy to keep the actual Assassins off of me. In terms of balance, all of the past games with assassins had assassins consist of roughly 10% of the total game population. In XXII, a game of 38 people, there were 4 Assassins, and in XXX, a game of 30 people, there were 3 Assassins. This game has 40 people, so assuming that Ver and Qatol helped BrownBear balance the game along the same lines as they did for me, there should actually be 4 Assassins in the game as well. Thus, my claim of there being 3 Assassins was a guess, but an educated one, in the hopes to keep both the guise of me being Assassin up and the actual Assassins off of my back.

Anyway, my plan successfully drew out the mafia. As I said before, mafia and assassins are desperate to stop my campaign, as an assassin in office would be a serious threat to both parties. Yesterday's vote clearly showed that mafia got panicky and overreacted when the vote was close and I had a chance of winning the election. Anyway, going back to my original list:


So why is Coagulation suspicious?

He is clearly pushing mafia objectives. As I have established before, Mafia doesn't want me anywhere near the Mayor/Pardoner positions. Guess what Coagulation has done? He opposed me right from the start. Then during the middle of the election when it looks like I had no chance of winning, he shut up and wasn't saying anything about us except for when he made a candidates list explaining what he thought of each candidate. Near the end of the day, however, when it looked like we had a chance of winning, Coag suddenly jumps on us and starts frothing at the mouth. He attacks me viciously, this time saying that I'm Mafia doing a not-so-last-minute vote switch and that the Assassin claim was just to garner votes. Seeing that the "he's assassin, don't vote for him" strategy didn't work, he tries to spread more fear by saying that I am Mafia. Then, when it seems like I have no chance of winning anymore, Coagulation disappears again.

He's silent during the time between DrH winning and Kav getting flipped, even though he was conveniently defending Kav strongly before this time. And guess what? Although Coag was adamantly against the lynch earlier and attacks the lynch right after it occurs, he is mysteriously silent right before the lynch and doesn't bother saving Kav at a moment where his arguments could be critical. This is completely consistent with Mafia objectives, as Mafia obviously would prefer that a known analyst is lynched over a random inactive. Rather than constantly trumpeting his position throughout the thread, he pops up in bursts, striking when mafia need it most, and then disappearing when things are going well. I got most suspicious of Coag right after the lynch. Look at when he is posting, and when he is not, and its obvious that he has a hidden agenda.

But that's not all. The whole game, he is useless and does nothing except spam and spread doubt on the mayoral candidates. The more interesting and important point though, is that he has an utter lack of conviction on who could be mafia. In particular, look at when Coag was yelling at DH not to lynch Kav. DH asked him for alternatives, yet he couldn't name a single name, just "any of the countless scummy lurkers". Compare this with his games as town, where he has no problem pointing out who he thinks is most scummy, and its pretty obvious that Coag is trying to hide the fact that he knows who the mafia are. Classic Mafia mentality, not wanting to have to point out scum and be accountable for it. Coagulation as green is fearless, posting every single thought that comes to his head as to who is Mafia. As DrH said at the end of Assassin In the Palace, Coagulation posts very frequently. This trend of trying to actively hunt down and call out Mafia as green goes all the way back to Haunted Mafia. As red, look at games like Insane 2 and Don't Lose Your Village. Coagulation is much more restrained and doesn't point out any reds with conviction like he does when he's town.

To sum it up, Coag is pushing mafia objectives. He had fierce opposition to my candidacy (mafia do not want a pro-town assassin in office), and conveniently posted at the right times. The whole game, he has been indecisive and is spreading doubt. Furthermore, he has not shown any conviction on who he thinks is Mafia, which is completely inconsistent with his town play, while he has no trouble pointing out who he thinks is innocent (GMarshal and Kavdragon). With all this evidence and my role check, there's no reason to vote anyone except Coagulation. GMarshal is suspicious too, but I'm not sure one way or the other. One thing is certain though: if he pardons Coagulation, they're both Mafia 100%.

Like I said, this party is only getting started. Mafia totally fell for my trap, so we are way ahead of where we would be otherwise.

Vote for Coagulation.

On April 12 2011 16:06 bumatlarge wrote:


I'm going to focus on how GM goes about the first day, as I feel that it's the clearest indication of his play and his meta.

---

GM immediately establishes himself as a policy person, which is understandable. I can't really consider this post scummy alone. He talks about relevant things early in the game, but it's way too forced. Paragraphs to explain simple ideas. Pardoners are strong but they can be pro-town, being able to do exactly what their role entails. Bam first paragraph done. Lurkers are the best lynch.

Last part is so WIFOMy. I find if you come across something that leads to WIFOM, the best course of action is describe the situation and how it leads to WIFOM, and then drop it until it rears its ugly head in the game. Gmarshal is setting it in stone. No good.



Ha, mock frustration, this one line is worse then everything he said before. Kav is already on board. In fact let me show you what GM's post should have been.



Straightforward. Even though I disagree with things, this is so easy to respond to. I think we should lynch a lurker rather then an inactive Kav. I see your point on the pardoner Kav. DONE AND DONE. You really lynched Kav?

---

But let me continue, Gmarshal could have gotten unlucky, he didn't know how to put those words out properly.



It reminds me of when I would get assigned a 500-word-essay in elementary school, and I'd do my best to say as much as possible while repeating the same idea different ways. If anyone does not see the evidence here, please inform me so I can clarify. I will do it with everyone of GM's posts if I have to.




Seeing these posts as well does not win me over in the "Gm is obvious town" department. It seems fairly clear that GM is well aware of what he is doing.



I don't mean to divert, but are you serious Dr.H? You've defintely been reading Kav's posts, but I find it hard to believe you missed GM's. Massive FoS Doctor Mayor. This only helps my case.



recall what I said about how town should approach WIFOM. Textbook.

---

I'm not going to be accusing anyone based on the fact that they ran for mayor. I did that before when I was scum. Easiest mislynch ever. But of course I will focus on how they did it! Let's rip this to pieces.



Cute, if you ended your campaign there, I would have dropped my entire argument. Seriously, but you didn't. You need to TRY to be mayor, but you don't need to be mayor. Let's see why that matters.



Hardly a fair argument GM, your only mafia play was in Death Factory, which is not right to include, no offense to Ace.



Not that I disagree, but you've stated your point from #1 on how you're always town, and when you are mafia, you sit there quiet and wait for town to lynch you. I don't see much difference here, because every townie should be doing this anyway, but you need to remind us of it. Very well, I am reminded of a townie's purpose.

.

Because of what we concluded from points 1 and 2! Basic assumptions that are assumed. Oh dear that sentence was useless, hope no one notices that the previous sentence was useless like this useless sentence.



Leave this point out next time it overlaps with #3.



You've made your Policy policy apparent, you're just explaining what it is to have a policy.



This should have been your first post in the game. Make sure you do that next time GM, so you can beat everyone to that particular punchline, so it actually looks like you are town.



Awful policy. Vets have already explained how wrong LaL is, and I should know considering I am going to host a game named after it.



It's so blatant, at least someone call GM out on repeating what not only everyone else has said, but what he has said. Maybe they have already? Guess I should finish the thread...



:/ leave out 1-8 and use this as your campaign next time.



Ok, lets compare this to Kav the townie!



Completely different approach from usual Kav. But what is hilarious is he has said everything GM stated and more. I almost can't stop myself on droning on about Kav being lynched. In fact, I couldn't. I DIDNT EVEN KNOW MY ALIGNMENT YET. God people. Gm is scum. Dr.H's play SO FAR has been completely unimpressive and damning for both GM and dr.H.

I may have confused chaoser and Dr.H before, I need to go back and see what I read, because Chaoser was switching his In-thread vote (not the on in the vote thread) and it seemed too off-key for me, but Dr.H is so much more apparent.

On April 14 2011 03:12 GMarshal wrote:
Well, since I don't want to waste our lynch on coag I thought I would provide you something nice to work with.

GMarshal's Analysis of Dr.H

This originally started as a PbP but man, Dr.H posts in a volume to rival mine



is the first non-troll post Dr.H makes besides stating that he does not talk at night.

Interesting to see how he is tunneling from the start



Kav was trying to help the newibes in the early game and as we had aready stated there was not much to discuss but generalities. Also notable that Dr.H calls on his experience as a host to try impress upon us how right he is. that same sentence written as "you did this same thing in pokemafia" would have made the same point, without pointing out how much of a "vet" you are



more tunneling, oh joy, lets discard any value in night 0 discussion explaining to people how to play and put it down to trying to look pro-town



Here, I'll translate, "I dont want any suspicion cast on me if I run" and "No way scum would run, lol"

right... the mafia team is just going to ignore the possibility of getting 3 more votes or the pardon in order to "keep attention on the mayor, pardoner" sure thing.

then he has a series of posts where he basically uses one liners to criticizes every word out of kavs mouth.

Then comes the assassin claim. Dr.H seems to be pretty happy to support him, as it "keeps the role out of mafia hands" I wont go into the discussion of the assassin again, but it *is* anti town to hand out the role to a third party out of fear



contributing without contributing, its easy to speculate on balance, watch "I bet there are 3 vigs, 3 vets, no medics and a dt" is this conformable? Does this help the town? No.



do I even have to bother rebutting why allowing people to hide their voteswitches is bad? Oh wait this is the guy that benefited from people voting for him at the very last second with no in thread justification. never mind.

and then he tunnels on Kav , I'm noticing a trend, 1 get tunnel kav, 2 get the assassin elected 3 tunnel kav somemore



I thought he was only going to run if he was mafia? Well lets deconstruction his campaign as well, I mean it can't be as bad as mine, right?

Let me sum it up "I'm going to do whatever the fuck I want" well then thank god he didn't land pardoner. Well I'm sure glad that a player who says he isn't going to be held accountable for his actions landed the mayor.

he then spends 2 pages arguing the meaning of FoS. His response to being told he was overly agressive over a small issue? "build a bridge and get over it" I applaud his building of town spirit. Wonderful work, *that* is how you encourage new players



so being held accountable for your votes if you have three of them is being "manipulatable" right?
Why did people vote for someone who said that he wasn't going to take responsibility for his actions with a powerful role again?



I dont think I need to comment on this, do I?
then again he did say "townies who post a lot are likely to contradict themselves at least once" so I suppose he is cleared



these replies without answering the substance of an accusation always worry me, since its easy to say "lol" and not so easy to either justify your behavior or own up to your mistakes.

however his later attitude towards the assassin and his reaction to pandians claims agree with mine, which is positive.



His debating skills know no bounds. Seriously when a serious argument is presented this is *not* the appropriate reply.



I'm going to assume this was a joke post, because otherwise I have to question Dr.H's sanity, and that would be bad.




my behavior is obviously pro town, "I will do whatever the fuck I want if I get the pardon", my behavior is obviously pro town, I think theres a disconnect here.



This one is juicy, lets dismantle it, point one about the assassin had already been made, time and time again, but its good he includes it here, I agree with him. His second post about electing an assassin to an anti-town role is downright bad if he didn't want the mayor to be in the hands of the assassin and wanted to avoid the assassin game entirly, then why is he proposing the assassin as a pardoner.

I will not be held accountable for my votes is a little less pro-town then point one, I understand the "I'll vote for who I feel is scum" thats the duty of every townie mayor or not, what worries me is that he is setting out the groundwork for covering for a pardon with "I said I would be autonomous so I autonomously pardoned the guy you were convinced was scum, because I can"

The fact that he would be ok with pandian in a protected position after his stupid claim and after having sustained that Pandian sucks makes me wtf.

Dr.H seems to not want people to look for contradictions, which is interesting, I agree that townies often change their mind, thats the issue with imperfect information, but blatant contradictions on core issues are a sure sign of scum.

"I will disregard everything the town says completely, and to have pandain as pardoner so if he is DT he doesn't die. "

we go from pandian is probably lying and should be ignored to pandian is ok as pardoner, also I'm *still* going to ignore anything the town says.

Also note how thought he refers to how "worthless" the pardoner role is, when in reality it is a strongly anti town role



already setting up the groundwork for "oops", and look, it *was* "oops"



right... ok... again with this "see I wasn't 100% sure, but I was *interdependent*"



well, interesting thing with the ON lynch, huh? Also nice little accusation of tnkted, what did he flip again? Have you made a right call yet?



Oh goodie, another long post!

First of all he calls out my post as being good, which I have no comment on other than when Kav pointed out something as a good point Dr.H's reply was "no one cares"

I do agree with his question of "what is a plataform of substance?" I thought I had one, but apparently posting why you would make a good mayor is anti-town.

Oh look, he is already setting himself up to be able to lynch kav, nice to know he thought things out ahead of time. At least the town should have been able to figure out what was going to happen

Also his "thoughts" boil down to what I said earlier, lynching ON proves absolutely nothing, one way or another.



See, the part about kita makes sense, that was the reactions I was fishing for, both from kita and form the players around him. I find that Dr.H's reasoning for not using a blue list for argument on the basis that the mafia can mislead you to be wrong. The point of a blue list is to open discussion on the topic and increase the power of the blues, if the medic part of the list contains 6 people then maifa will likely try to hit outside of it, increasing the effectiveness of the medics (since the list effectively protected 6 people). This proved slightly flawed as the mafia shot into my list last night.



theres tunneling and theres tunneling, sustained aggression is not necessarily bad, irrationally tunneling is.



with no attached explanation of why he goes from a ON lynch to a Kav lynch... interesting



you know the generic advice he accused kav of posting. Yeah, this is an example of it.



when people are switching votes off of GM because of a "mafia bandwagon" in the first 24 hours of day 1 thats ok, no need to comment. When people suddenly start electing the assassin at the last minute thats not suspicious at all.

And then he lynches Kav, after kav requests to be lynched...



Oh, no dont berate me for mis-lynching, I might just ragequit! forever! Goes hand in hand with "dont hold me accountable" and it seems to work too.



any fingers of suspicion on me must be silenced! Although I agree ON failed to provide reasons


"I'm incredibly wary of anyone who goes out of their way to defame me." = I reserve the right to OMGUS anyone who questions my poor decisions.

TL:DR: Dr.H got himself elected on a funky vote switch, killed a town analyst and continues to support an assassin. He is supporting a know liar rather than doing what is reasonable and ran for mayor with the worst possible role to get in office, which is *also* unprovable until he dies.

Yeah, Dr.H is scum

On April 13 2011 05:42 AirbladeOrange wrote:
I have been advocating M0nsterChef as one of my main suspects for being red even before all the shitstorm about the mayor campaign.




This is in response to being called out for blindly voting for GMarshal. He provides us with this extensive post of bold reasoning. A strong analysis over a strong leader? What does that even mean? Dr. H and GMarshal both appeared to be good analyzers as well as leaders. The rest of the post is just pointless blabble about the goal of the game and keeping the town united. Obvious fluffy stuff.




And here is his second reply when GMarshal wanted a better explanation of his vote.



Here is an apology and admitting to making a mistake. I think he is being real when he says he knows he made a mistake but again, the rest of his post is just throwing out relatively useless questions which many people have already been addressing.



Here is the next useless post. He claims he explained why he voted for GMarshal, which I guess he did. I'm just not sure you can even call it an explanation.



I don't know if this really points to anything but it should be noted that he is quite defensive.



I take this as playing the noob card to the extreme. "Come on guys, stop picking on me."



The rest of his posts were even more pointless than the ones I quotes. One of them being saying "dang" after Kav was found out to be green. Another was just a comment about the spamming in the tread.

He only has 10 posts thus far in the game and has contributed even less than me. At least I'm trying and open to answering questions. All of his responses were the opposite of compelling.

The reason I wanted to bring him up was the I was suspicious of him ever since the blind GMarshal vote. As the game goes on GM is looking more and more red. GM is even accusing me without any real analysis and has yet to ask me questions directly, which I am more than happy to address. But I guess my beef with GM will be left for another post later.

I am always leery of people who look like scum from the very beginning and fail to ever help their own public image.

With all that said I want everyone to be clear who are on my scummy list:
M0nsterChef
GMarshal
OriginalName

On April 14 2011 01:58 redFF wrote:
We should lynch m0nsterChef. Let me tell you why.

If you remember, his first contribution after the game started was to vote for GM in the voting thread. Voting without contribution was enough to warrant suspicion, but considering some of the other votes for GM:


and



Made him doubly suspicious to me without even posting.
Now here is his reason for the vote




Consider how DrH made lynching kav a huge part of his campaign, yet here there is no mention of DrH at all in this post. The rest of this post is pretty barren in content and high on recycling stuff already said, and obvious stuff e.g. Protact is not town, Protact cares about the assassin game etcetc.

Now look at his next few posts in the thread.





All him defending himself, no analysis like he said he would do in his post justifying voting for GM. No contribution at all. even throws in a little slip as to him and ON being together somehow. He hasn't mentioned ON before that, hasn't interacted with him throughout the whole thread either. Strange that the majority of his posts are him defending himself and he has nothing else to contribute.


Well ok then...thanks.


indeed.

Decent point, I guess at least you acknowledge that you aren't contributing...


##Vote M0nsterChef

Why we should not lynch coagulation.
Think about it for a second. Why in christs name would a dt claim assassin? If protact was really dt, he could have just run for mayor normally, got voted in, and then said he was dt now he was protected.
Im tired of protact claiming black, claiming blue and just serving up a bunch of fucking wifom and derailing the thread. We should concentrate on lynching scum. And the most certain scum lynch seems to be m0nsterChef.
Since ON got replaced by LSB and LSB seems like a long time player. I'm guessing he could be valuable to town and we shouldn't lynch him today.

On April 14 2011 07:36 aidnai wrote:
The big problem with this debate is
1) likely scenario is protact = assassin, coag = vet
2) mafia don't really care about who we kill here
3) debating this is therefore mostly a waste of time.

Best course of action is let protact die tonight, decide about a coag lynch based on the flip (or vig him pretty please

Therefore it's time to post my lynch candidate: Rean.

+ Show Spoiler [rean's posts with commentary] +
If you don't want to read the whole wall of text, read only the quotes that I posted red under.

Important points to remember:
1) Rean's attitude towards protact and coag proves that he is mafia
2) Rean's attitude towards his activity level and his responses to criticism indicate he is mafia
3) Rean's lack of contribution and mudslinging just put the nail in the coffin.

Lynch Red. Lynch Rean.

On April 14 2011 10:48 kitaman27 wrote:
Here are my thoughts on Rean.

I've spoiled some of his more relative posts from the previous two games. They give a good representation of his play style as town. Compare them to this game, where he is playing much more passive.

Death Factory Mafia
Alignment: Town

+ Show Spoiler +

-He is actively scum hunting and posting scum lists.

-He is presenting plans for town to follow.

-He is posting aggressive and confident.

Insane Mafia
Alignment: Police/Town

+ Show Spoiler +
-Responds after accusations of being scum

-Participates in the mayoral election

-Analysis, analysis, analysis

Current game
+ Show Spoiler +
Spam

-Gives little input to mayoral elections

-Responds to accusations with sarcasm

-Only pushes lynches that are safe to jump on

Conclusion: Scum

On April 12 2011 16:10 chaoser wrote:
OriginalName

+ Show Spoiler +

He gives super shitty reasoning to voting GM, basically saying he'd vote for him cause GM said he would lynch lurkers. He asks GM what GM's plans are for the future, GM doesn't really ever address it and then ON never mentions it ever again.

Interesting enough, he votes for GM hours after this post



Just before this post, however, Prot did his ballsy move of claiming Assassin and running for office. But ON doesn't respond to it or acknowledges it even though it was a mere 15 minutes before his post when it was the talk of the town. (Prot claimed at 13:18)

+ Show Spoiler +

He repeats the exact same thing that's been said multiple times by people, picking two of the easiest topics to talk about. Doesn't look at Kav, kita, or fully at GM.



He even continues to say that GM is wishy washy but he's still protown



Quoting DrH for this one


He says almost nothing that is his own, puts out weak ass one line analysis.



First real analysis of any sort on Mig and comes up with lurking townie. Not much to say

+ Show Spoiler +

Clearly says he did not read/care much for Protact's posts. Still doesn't give solid reasons why GM is feasible in his mind.






Counter argues that his point is WIFOM by saying the argument against him is...WIFOM.
Very much against DrH and all over him.



Backs off when the heat comes on.

Two things are suspicious to me.
1) He bounced when Prot's post came on, waited till later to respond to it
2) Never gives good reasons to vote GM
3) Repeats things others have been saying

This combined with my uneasiness with GM and also GM's late change of his lynch target should he have been lynched from ON to AO makes me think he is scum

On April 12 2011 16:23 Barundar wrote:

I most certainly am, and I believe GM is too. He has posted tons of stupid shit, but nothing I would call anti town. I disagreed with the majority of his reads, but that's entirely normal for him. Kita would have been my pick for mayor if he had actually made a real campaign instead of the pardoner campaign.

Chaoser could just be a townie misguided by DrH's scare campaign, there must be plenty of them voting for him. Besides he is contributing.

Now, here is who I would have lynched: Conversion

He has barely posted all day. He asked for advice as to DrH's town meta. His reason for voting DrH is just hilarious:



He votes for DrH albeit "he doesn't like him". He blames his vote on a general opinion, trying to undermine his own credibility. This is a requiring theme from him:

He gets called out on the post regarding DrH and decides to switch. Again he blames his vote on general town opinion. Typical mafia who need other peoples reasons to justify their actions.

More questioning to belittle his own influence.

All his posts screams: pay no attention to me, I'm just a quiet person who wants to further towns wishes. Lurker at best and mafia at worst.

DT check please.

On April 13 2011 13:53 chaoser wrote:
Read up to Page 83 and I want to look at someone (VERSION 2, hit post by accident before finishing)

Darm:


He says this and yet when GM bounced around a bit he still voted him. Later on he changes his vote for Dr.H but I want you to notice that he says a pro-town player is someone who doesn't "suddenly switch in order to make things in his favor"




Backtracks off Kav even though just before he was FoSing him.



Very much against Prot being in office, says he is probably mafia.



But then, even though this whole time he was against Prot being in office, all of a sudden he changes his stance and says DrH's plan was "the most pro-town of all" even though it involved putting Prot in office as a pardoner. Darm had previous said that he suspected Prot was probably red. Why would you want Prot in office then? He even says he doesn't trust black in office either so regardless of whether he thought Prot was red or black, why was he ok with DrH's plan?



Again says he is weary prot...and kav. Notice the slight changes in his stances. At first he was very against them, saying he didn't trust Prot at all and now he's softened his stance on him. This whole time he's been soft on Kav too, as if he didn't want to take too strong a stance on Kav least he flipped green (which he did)

+ Show Spoiler +
lol...finally, look at all this wishy washy posting. He continues to take soft stances, "suddenly switch in order to make things in his favor", and generally can't make up his mind on anything.

Lynch Darm or Lynch ON on Day 2.