Looking forward to playing a clue game
TL Mafia XXXVI
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Looking forward to playing a clue game | ||
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E: Happy Bday mate | ||
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On January 25 2011 05:22 LSB wrote: d3_crescentia will be replacing Pandain. Deconduo will be replacing DoctorHelvetica Everyone say HI D3! and HI Deconduo! In the OP it states d3 replaced DrH, and Deconduo replaced Pandain. So is the above post or the OP correct? I'm still trying to work my way through the thread. Lol at people posting nonsense making us lose DrH... | ||
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On January 26 2011 23:54 Jackal58 wrote: If mason recruits scum do all in that circle die? I've seen that set up in other games and wondered if that's a standard practice? That was a special setup. No mason doesn't die unless it's specified. RoL (I think) gave the way to act as mason: Recruit someone you think is town and treat them like they are mafia. | ||
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On January 27 2011 23:42 papapanda wrote: so siN is a vet? (or SK teehee:D) Although i doubt bum's role(and brownbear, a little bit), his clue analysis seems legit...RoL is basically only stating that bum is abusing clue-->so bum is mafia and clue are more simple(?) than the way bum is analyzing them. Bleh this is why i dislike the clues, please don't lynch anyone just because of clues!!!! Wait so who of them do you think is innocent and who are you suspecting here? | ||
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Clues help, but it seems so far these clues have a few interpretations and the flip thing hardly comes into play after one kill sooo, keep an eye on your favourite people! I know I've got my eyes on people, but no one has really done anything, but we can't exactly wait can we... You seem to be writing in a very non commital way, softly pushing for RoL. Your post comes off as wishy washy. Mind posting some of the people you are keeping track off and why? Personally I disagree that we can't wait with lynching one of the potential deadliest townies. Regarding tube he was just as inactive as this in HPmafia, he managed to not get modkilled for like 3 days, with 1 post and 1 vote per day, and not a word on mafia IRC. Tube if you really want to play mafia here, start posting, or you got another modkill and a ban comming your way... | ||
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On January 28 2011 17:11 Divinek wrote: just watching the more well known names, cause they are dangerous fellows if they plant zee seeds of evil in your mind! You dodged my question on posting a list. While one of the more well known players will probably be mafia for balance, it's usually a ton easier to find their newb team mates, and even experienced players will screw up in the long run - the fact they are even alive in end game is scummy. of course im not committing to RoL that's the whole point. If I thought he was worth killing then I would vote for him, I just dont think people should dismiss others so easily as well. What do you think of him then? | ||
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It makes me more than just a little uneasy that papapanda simply switches votes when questioned, and put it on someone else without explanation. | ||
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On January 28 2011 20:37 papapanda wrote: The reason im switching votes is because im guessing no one else is voting for bb and there are clues pointing at nemesis also. RoL is not off my "look out" list if thats what you mean, i was just thanking him for explaining. Plus i was complaining about clues of how imba they are. RoL has nothing to do with why i switched vote... Well it's a big plus that you post your reason without hesitation | ||
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Im going to vote zergling for now to pressure an inactive. Hopefully he will be on to post later. | ||
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On January 29 2011 08:33 kitaman27 wrote: Modkills hurt the town even more than usually because there will be no way to tell if our lynch was correct when there are a bunch of other deaths mixed into the census. Unless we wake up to 5 mafia again... Good times.... | ||
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You have someone on your mind you would definitely kill if SK or mayor? As far as I know those 2 have different motives for their kills, atleast if the mayor is town. Unless you have some special knowledge of Kav's allignment? And if you want someone to get vigi'd you better speak up with names, if you are sure enough to kill them yourself? You don't feel like voting anyone, yett you are voting for something you yourself call a weak wagon? And when was Kav a lynch target before your post? But if he's SK, then mafia might go for him, and that might uncover things about BGs. If he's mafia, SK might go for BG and uncover stuff about other SK/Mafia Mafia can't night kill SK, so by go for him you mean start a bandwagon him? Something like you just did? This whole sentence is wishy washy, what information would SK gain from killing off BG's? You posted alot of thoughts on bodyguards day 1, but I found your posts really low on other content. | ||
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On January 29 2011 09:39 CubEdIn wrote: Obviously, I'm feeling nervous because so many people are targeting me. I just apologized for lack of activity during this day. Only Coagulation targeted you. With a list and no reasons. Yeah, your apologies where overreacting, and that’s suspicious. Right now I'm directly targeting you, and the apologetic tone is gone. On January 29 2011 09:39 CubEdIn wrote: You misunderstand. I meant that I would kill someone if I had complete power over one kill. If I were mayor, I'd aim for SK/Mafia. If I were SK I'd aim for other SK/Mafia. So yeah. It doesn't matter what I was (vig would work as well), but if I had a kill of my own, it would be that person. I have, as you'd call it, a hunch. A pretty good one too, but there's no REAL evidence for me to back it up with. If I were to make a case against him, it would be weak. If I were to die the night after I made the case, you guys wouldn't have enough reason to kill said person. So why rush into "analysis" and risk getting killed, when I could make a good case against said person during the next day or two days from now? Why do you think a SK would hit mafia? This early in the game they will be aiming for blues. And we should have some vigis around. If you feel someone should die, just suggest it to them and they can decide. You are being really wishy washy regarding 3 named persons, and extremely secretive about this person you would definitely kill. I'll hold you to this. On January 29 2011 09:39 CubEdIn wrote: This may be a bit hard for you to comprehend, since you said I was "going on" about BGs on day one. But BGs are a crucial part of this game. Here's why: a) Say town lynches a BG. Night can very well be a dead mayor (since other BG may be mafia). We lose census AND we lose the power to see if initial lynch was right. We lynch BG, we have... 1 red for mayor+surprise target. b) Say both BGs are scum Town will go all game in fear of lynching them, and they will run amok. So yeah. If a bg dies, then the next night will tell us A LOT, since I'm pretty sure that if Kav is town, then mafia will go for him. Either by killing other bg, or by 'going around' if they're red. IMO, any BG death will give us useful information, but will most likely also lead us to eventually losing the game because of lack of information about anything. Speculating in BG’s was fine to a certain degree. But at some point it becomes just a mechanic that takes up pages without bringing us closer to scum. Mafia loves these neutral questions that makes them look like they are active and contributing. On January 29 2011 09:39 CubEdIn wrote: That is true, but I have expressed my thoughts on the lynch targets, and I have expressed opinions about the rest of the game. The only thing I didn't speak about was "post analysis", simply because I'm not good at it. I did talk about behavior analysis, mainly how people played games before this. It's the best I can do at the moment, that and focusing on clues. If you think that's good enough reason to lynch me, then by all means, vote for me. Boohoo someone is questioning me. I’m not going to push for your lynch when there is no clues pointing towards you. | ||
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It's very likely we just lost a bunch of townies. Please hit mafia SK? | ||
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On January 27 2011 05:00 Eti307 wrote: Sure the game is about analyzing, but before the first kills/night actions it's hard to actually analyse anything imo. There will be much more discussion to do once the first night is over On January 28 2011 23:24 Eti307 wrote: Sorry guys if I didn't post enough in the last 2days. A lot has been going on in rl and between work and that I didn't have the time to closely follow this thread. That said, I will be much more active this evening/weekend ^I'm really looking forward to some improvements. | ||
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On January 29 2011 16:29 bumatlarge wrote: Can you phrase that first part again? I think you are saying RoL is the only likely mafia? Which I agree with, but you just worded it funny. But I'm not sure if it was a slip or not... Why would I say he is the only likely mafia? I voted zergling. I'm saying mafia would have saved RoL if he was red. He would be way too valuable to lose to 1 vote. Therefore most likely we lynched town. | ||
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On January 30 2011 06:58 LunarDestiny wrote: I also agree vig should not claim before shooting because it means nothing. A mafia could as well claim before shooting but it will lure dt toward his way. Alternative suggestion is if a vig really want to claim, he should claim much before the night ends so dts have a chance to check that shooter. This will greatly discourage mafia to claim vig. I didn't say I agree vig should claim before shooting. I just said if vig wants to claim before shooting, he should claim ahead of time and should not claim to be shooting in the last hour. Reason for vigi to claim: To get a confirmed townie. Why waste a DT check on someone who can confirm himself? We know night KP is 3, and unless RoL is the laziest SK ever, it will be 3 tonight as well. Anything above that is a vigi hit. Why are you worried about a mafia claiming to have done a vigi hit? It's just a matter of the real vigi counter claiming, and then we are trading 1 of us for 1 of them by lynching both. Reason I would suggest vigi to claim before the day post is that he knows for certain there will be clues towards him in that day post. Mafia can't be sure if they are the ones who will have clues against them in the day post, so fakeclaiming before it's posted is a gamble for them. I agree with medic protection on LD, some great clue analysis done by him. I'd suggest DivineK in addition to other suspects for DT check, I think he responded badly to my pressure. | ||
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On January 30 2011 12:07 zerroth wrote: Beneather Profile pic: Master chief Clues: He also had a mafia slip post 721 Looking at Beneather's photo, what is the Master Chief part about it? Some meme I don't know about? Kenpachi, there is one death tonight, yet you want to call Beneather a vigi when he gets proposed as the clue reference. You would also rather lynch Nemesis than Beneather. But when Jackal gets proposed by Nemesis you immedietly join the bandwagon on him without questions? We had a man with a hole in his head on first day. Your profile picture is wearing a eye patch. If Beneather is scum this looks bad for you. | ||
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2 KP missing, would be funny if the mafia team forgot to send in their hits. | ||
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On January 30 2011 19:35 Barundar wrote: Looking at Beneather's photo, what is the Master Chief part about it? Some meme I don't know about? Kenpachi, there is one death tonight, yet you want to call Beneather a vigi when he gets proposed as the clue reference. You would also rather lynch Nemesis than Beneather. But when Jackal gets proposed by Nemesis you immedietly join the bandwagon on him without questions? We had a man with a hole in his head on first day. Your profile picture is wearing a eye patch. If Beneather is scum this looks bad for you. Sorry Kenpachi I can't read. Mixed you up with coagulation. Still confused as to how you think we had a vigi tonight when we are already missing 2 KPs from yesterday. | ||
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On February 01 2011 02:53 deconduo wrote: Pretty confident he's scum, clues fit well and he had motive to kill d3. Its possible that d3 fingered a large portion of the mafia team, which would be the reason they killed him off. Theres not a whole lot of other reasons for it. Looking back at d3's list of suspects: Nemesis Darmousseh Beneather kitaman27 Eti307 LunarDestiny GMarshal Of these I think Nemesis and Beneather are certain mafia. Lunar is high up on the list as well, he completely ingored beneather as a possibility for the dog meat clue and tunnelled me instead. Probably trying to divert attention from beneather. Its hard to ignore the connections to the mayor as well, the 2 picked bodyguards and one of the biggest campaigners for him. My thoughts are to lynch Nemesis today and for vig (if we have one) to target kav tonight. If he dies it confirms Beneather and GMarshal as scum. i love the ballsy plan suggestion. But why would you want to kill off the mayor instead of using census to confirm if beneather is red? | ||
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On February 01 2011 04:30 Kavdragon wrote: Also, I only implied this in that post, but I think that the mafia are busing Beneather so they can kill me. And I think you are being paranoid. I have been suspecious of Beneather since his first real post, and now there is even clues to back it up. It seems like there is too strong of a resistance to push for a lynch now though, so I will try tomorrow instead. But if you are town, don't just discard him beceause you picked him as BG. For today's targets: Jackal: I still want you to answer my questions regarding the vet discussion. Deconduo: Ballsy plan suggestions are big plusses in my book. The plan was kinda scummy though, would make it easy to pick off mayor. Nemesis: I never thought he was scum, but at this point we will be strugling killing anyone else, any day, beceause of the suspecions against him. Hence we can kill him off. | ||
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On February 01 2011 08:28 Kenpachi wrote: WHY KILL NEMESIS On January 30 2011 11:37 Kenpachi wrote: ##vote Nemesis ~~ wat | ||
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The lack of information in this game is killing me. I bet we don't have any DT's again, and our vets are publicly claiming without trying to use their extra hp. The only thing we have going for us is clues, but they are easy to forge. For some reason Deconduo has disapeared as a proposed target from alot of peoples posts, even if the clue analysis on him is pretty convincing. I'd feel best about killing off Beneather, but since that is impossible I'll stick my vote on Nemesis. Atleast we won't have to deal with that discussion again then. | ||
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General posting style: HPmafia: Played as town/blue, active, underlined he was new, and got so suspicious he got killed off night 1 by a town busdriver. Posted more in 1 day 1 night than in this entire game. Discussed the mayor selection freely. Example: + Show Spoiler + On December 11 2010 10:54 Beneather wrote: Yeah, that is true. Disregard my post I wasn't really thinking of it like that. But if he was mafia and just Lynch somebody important that is contributing a lot and helping the town find the mafia. We could just lynch the mayor. It really depends if the person turns out to be a mafia or a townie right? I think someone isn't stupid enough just to lynch a random person without the town approving it then we could just lynch the mayor right? Im really unexperienced please stop me if I'm acting noobie? Alot of back and forth, but posting without fear. Has alot of thoughts on how mayor should use his power, something he hasn't adressed in this game. PYP3: Played as town. It was an active game, but he had more than twice his posts in this game, and that game was pretty short. Example of Beneather scumhunting: + Show Spoiler + On January 11 2011 06:49 Beneather wrote: HaploPaithan you have to have reasons on why we have you can't just blindly say something with out any reason to back up your statement. That's just basically 1 line spamming. Why do we have to worry about CopyCat he will only copycat someone that has a good role and that he knows it for sure or he'll be just wasting his powers blindly and might get some bad role or something. The only time CopyCat will work is if people start claiming and he can just copycat that role if it's good also it would be good to see if their lying about their role. It really can be used as a Detective tool as well. So what are you thinking that CopyCat is a bad role ? He has yet to post anything regarding other people's posting in this game. Present game: A lot of empty posts: + Show Spoiler + On January 23 2011 11:00 Beneather wrote: ITs TIME!! :D FINALLY! On January 23 2011 11:23 Beneather wrote: /confrim On January 24 2011 09:42 Beneather wrote: We're not suppose to be voting yet. The thread will be created on the Day 1. Right now it's Night 0. So we can't vote yet. On January 26 2011 12:19 Beneather wrote: I don't think its counted since it was too late so it really doesn't matter. His activity is way lower than in his games as town, yet a good part of his posts are empty. Suspicious posts:+ Show Spoiler + On January 24 2011 05:38 Beneather wrote: Alright we have 2 people running for mayor. 1. KavDragon 2. Kitaman KavDragon has brought up strong points of having scum bodyguards which most agree to. Aswell other stated if the mayor dies and without any death of the bodyguards then the bodyguards are scum and we can just lynch them. Kitaman hasn't brought up any points in his run for mayor. It's all basically saying that we should vote for him because he is better than KavDragon etc. Also saying that KavDragon is red because he's a communist russian etc. These are the only 2 running so far and if I had to vote now it'd be KavDragon since he had brought up a lot of good points and could be a huge asset to the town. There are a few more ideas that Mr.Wiggles had to that I agree with but I think KavDragon can incorporate those in to his plans. This rang the alarm for me. First of all he summarizes instead of discussing the candidates. He doesn’t question the plans of the mayor more than what Mr.Wiggles has said. No independent thoughts, no contribution. Personally I don’t believe in scumslips, but it’s worth mentioning: + Show Spoiler + On January 26 2011 15:39 Beneather wrote: I meant the number of deaths the town is going to have. Badly worded I guess. Argues for SK checking, first time he really shows an opinion on plans. Suspicious choice of words. Vote reasons: + Show Spoiler + On January 25 2011 05:51 Beneather wrote: Looks like DocH dropped out? I guess that my vote will be going to KavDragon since I agree with most of his points. Except for choosing Volunteered BGs because that just allows Mafia to pick them off for free since which was stated post before this. Let's talk about the lynch for this day. I read that if we vote for KavDragon that he would lynch OriginalName since his prof. looks like the best relation to the clues. I support this he has been inactive and also looks like a smurf cause when he joined it seemed that he played a game before but only had 60-70 posts. His reasons for day 1 vote. Kinda weird reasoning for lynching OriginalName, he doesn’t seem to really think ON is scum. After this Kav chooses him as BG. He has yet to talk about this! GMarshal and Kav has had some cute back and forth about it, but Beneather has not even mentioned it. A mafia is probably not too happy about the spotlight, but on the other hand that choice of BG probably has saved his life, and lets him get away with scummy afk play. Reasons for voting day 2: + Show Spoiler + On January 27 2011 14:37 Beneather wrote: I'm very in the middle between RoL and Nemesis. The Analyzing of bum on RoL's post really show that the clues are going towards him but LD made a point that some clues are going Nemesis. Can they both be mafia? or 1 Sk and 1 is Scum? I'll be voting for RoL... We NEED YOU to claim if you were VISITED LAST NIGHT!!!! Doesn’t actually give any reasons, just bandwagons. The reasons for choosing RoL over Nemesis aren’t exactly clear. Raises FoS against both Nemesis and RoL. Last question is again relevant. He has no posts before the next day. Reasons for voting day 3: + Show Spoiler + On January 30 2011 14:32 Beneather wrote: It really does look like Jackal is scum from what the clues point to. The points addressed in posts before this make sense and it looks like he's scum. More bandwagon. Again just quotes posts before him. Day post reactions: + Show Spoiler + On January 27 2011 11:08 Beneather wrote: ^ was about to ask that question? Or Did the Mafia and SK visit the same person. Do people know if they were visited? On January 27 2011 11:16 Beneather wrote: Wait so you were hit? I'm confused. The chances of that ever happening are very slim but I think that they both win? Since both are SK and they cant kill eachother. Nothing much here, relevant questions but doesn’t say anything of his alignment. And lastly + Show Spoiler + On January 31 2011 08:47 Beneather wrote: If GMarshal was SK and his computer broke that would mean he was unable to send in his hit making it a 1 KP night. He claimed saying he got but was protected by a medic to cover that up but in reality he is SK and look like he's contributing. Wow some pretty heavy fingerpointing there Beneather, don’t you think you should clarify this? Conclusion: Way lower activity than usual. Excessive bandwagoning. No scumhunting, but interested in SK. Zero contribution. He has completely ignored that he got chosen as BG. This to me signifies he doesn’t like it. A green would be happy to get a more special role. Only a mafia or a blue would dislike the attention, ergo he isn't green. He has posted relevant questions after day posts, which to me shows he is following the thread, and is not just a bored/busy townie. In HPmafia he was a DT, but that didn't make him lurk like this, and stop contributing. Verdict: Mafia Why did you have to pick him as BG Kav? It’s about the only reason I can see not to lynch him. I plan to post a few more analysis on my suspects today or tomorrow as time allows it. | ||
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On January 29 2011 10:19 Barundar wrote: And we should have some vigis around. If you feel someone should die, just suggest it to them and they can decide. You are being really wishy washy regarding 3 named persons, and extremely secretive about this person you would definitely kill. I'll hold you to this. On January 29 2011 10:34 CubEdIn wrote: I know what you mean, but I need a bit more time. I promise that you'll understand why if I get to post my analysis. And don't worry about it, I'll post it even if said person dies. It is time. | ||
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On February 02 2011 12:08 bumatlarge wrote: Well, before things get out of hand, hold this open can of worms for me. I am a detective Night 1: kitaman27 is Medic Night 2: Beneather is Vanilla Town Night 3: LunarDestiny is [black]Serial Killer[/black] Shouldn't Beneather have returned Townie Bodyguard as allignment? It seems very convenient that you check kitaman who died tonight, and Beneather who is suspected scum. In any case either Lunar or bum is lying, so we got atleast 1 guranteed lynch. Can we afford to mislynch today? | ||
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There are 4 options: 1) LunarD = town, Bum = DT 2) LunarD = town, Bum = mafia 3) LunarD = SK, Bum = DT 4) LunarD = SK, Bum = mafia Option 1 can be discarded straight away. Bum would have no reason to lie about LunarD Option 2 can pretty much be discarded. It wouldn’t pay off for a mafia to expose himself to kill a townie when there is still a bit to go before lylo. The real SK would still be about, and would know for sure Bum is mafia, free to kill during the night. If Bum is town, he has no reason to lie about Lunar, if Bum is mafia, it doesn’t pay off for him. It seems pretty certain that LunarD is in fact the SK. Obvious choice today: Lynch LunarD, if he doesn’t help us kill off mafia. No amount of clue analysis makes up for a lose KP. Any comments LunarD? So what’s left is to decide between option 3 and option 4. This close to lylo it would make sense for a mafia to expose himself to kill off their main rival, the SK. There was no way town would lynch LunarD otherwise. A fake DT claim could fix this, and could possibly be used to direct town to another mislynch afterwards, making it a pretty good trade. I have a few ideas on how we can confirm Bum, but first I’ll have to go through his posts. | ||
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On February 02 2011 18:50 CubEdIn wrote: Ok, NEWBIES, time for Cube to post. Let's start by assuming Kav is not mafia (could be sk, but not mafia). If he is mafia then the whole census thing is screwed and we can just roll the dice when killing people. So let's remove that variable for now. I freaking -TOLD YOU- that Nemesis was not scum. It was impossible, but you guys would not listen. That post he made when it was past lynch time in day 2 was super-town. But you bastards decided to kill him anyway. I am raging. Now, about the bumatlarge situation, it's really FKING simple. (also wtf Kav @ saying we should lynch possible DT? you bonkers?) Here are the options: 1) bumatlarge is SCUM Let's start with this one because it's most fun. Why would scum push for someone to get lynched instead of using KPs on him? Well let's see, maybe they tried to hit him or role-block him and it didn't work. Not sure if they would get notified by this, but either way, that's the only possible reason. Which would mean that LD is indeed SK, and Mafia found him. We should KILL the SK as it clearly didn't help the town thus far, and if we let him live he will most likely get revenge on whoever he is pissed at *cough* bum *cough*. Please see PYP mafia that just ended where town kept presumed SK alive, see how good that did us. Now, in order to check bum, we only need one DT to check bumatlarge and Beneather. If they flip DT/vanilla, then we are a-ok!, if not, then we have cought TWO mafias at once. AND the SK. This is like, awesomest scenario ever. 2. bumatlarge is DT Then he is right about SK. He will help the town further on. There is no reasonable scenario where LD is not SK. Really. It's a really dumb move my mafia to stick out their head like that if Lunar is just a townie they want dead. We will find out instantly during the night when the KP doesn't drop. Plus, nobody has claimed RB yet, that can mean that: a) mafia didn't use it to make lunar seem even more like an SK b) mafia used it on lunar and he's not claiming because it would prove he is SK c) mafia used it on someone else who's being a newb and not claiming. Also, if any of the other DTs found stuff that is contradicting what bumatlarge is saying, say something. We'll have 2 mafias to lynch because of that, and you can get protection, assuming that you can prove your posts. Think well before claiming though. Do so only if it helps the town. So, let's draw the line and think of options: 1. We lynch LunarD: KP drops by one, we check for scum, and possibly have two more in the future 2. We lynch bumatlarge: SK is still alive, and we lose one DT. That's just DANDY. We hope that SK has more success in killing reds, even though statistically, he will do more bad than good until the number of town/mafia get to the same values. And we obviously have to kill one of these two tonight, so don't go off bandwagoning on some dumb wild goose chase. Rofl at delayed rage. Didn't feel like that yesterday? Where is that analysis you promised me? | ||
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And then another persons enters the clearing. He is careful, disturbing nothing, as quiet as the trees surrounding him. A coward, he hid in the shadows witnessing it all, doing nothing. He gazes down at the body of Meapak, the drying blood staining his feet. He shudders, and continues on. Really fills my mind I followed TheAldo. And as I ran my knife across his throat, no one was there to help him. Aldo was hiding doing nothing like a coward. | ||
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On February 02 2011 19:45 CubEdIn wrote: Right, I'm lying. Because I didn't try to stop Nemesis lynch back from the first time he was on the line. I didn't need any posts, but the rest of you obviously did. That night post was not nearly as "absolving" as HIS post was. And nobody cared. Besides, the night post was picking at Steelers, which was tied to Jackal58 not Nemesis. Are you trying to distract town from the problem at hand? Not really, we pretty much posted the same thoughts, I just posted before you. | ||
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Kav obviously you and the mason group will have a whole lot of information more than the rest of the town, and while im fine with you not sharing anything, i want you to not turn this into a mason group deciding and a town following like sheeps. Hence i would like the discussion of what to do for the lynches to continue in the thread. The best choice of action is in my opinion to kill off lunar tonight to reduce kp. The only alternative would be to lynch a mafia now and give lunar orders on who to kill tonight. But this would require us to hear from lunar, and be certain of 2 mafia. Bum and beneather or what? Got a third suspect? Opinions from people? | ||
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On February 03 2011 14:57 Mr. Wiggles wrote: So I've been looking through the day posts and people's profiles a bit recently. There have been 4-6 mafia kills so far, so that means that there should be clues on the whole mafia team almost, or a couple of them twice. I haven't found too much for mafia yet, but I'm going to keep looking. (I'm tired, just did a whole bunch of algebra and physics homework :p). One thing that did pop out at me though, and I don't think it's been mentioned, are two possible clues referring to LunarDestiny, and both in the "serial killer" part of the post. Now, from LD's profile: The part that interests me is "Karma is a b****. Gets you every time.". If you look up at the day 2 post quote, theAldo is watching as Meapak is killed, hiding in the shadows. Then the new killer comes out and slits his throat. But what really gets me, is that it says "no one was there to help him. How fitting.". Aldo sat and watched, doing nothing as Meapak was killed, and now he is murdered in turn, and there is no one to help him. What makes it stand out as a clue though is the "how fitting" tacked onto the end. Now, if you look at the day 4 post quote, the killer asks for help. Deconduo was open to helping until he realized he had to enter the poop-your-pants-it's-so-scary-cave. Then he tried to run and was struck down by the killer. And once again, something is added, this time a "Serves him right.". These both fit in with the quote about Karma and getting your just desserts. TheAldo didn't help Meapak, instead letting him die alone, and was then "fittingly" killed alone with no one to help him. Then, Deconduo wouldn't help move the body, he wouldn't do a favor, and so he gets killed too, but I guess Karma's a b****, what can you do? :p These two clues fit LD very closely. I'm going to see if I can find anything else in the day 3 post, or potentially day 1 as well, leaving this here for now. Has already been pointed out by Divinek and myself. I'm very interested in you ignoring the whole Kav vs Bumatlarge debate completely, while making your first directly incriminating clue analysis in the game. You don't get any brownie points for it though, since mafia loves to find SK's. So what is your opinion of Bumatlarge? And what do you think of Kavdragon? Can you find clues pointing to them? | ||
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Kenpachi was very quick to name beneather a vigi. And he has been completely silent with regards to bum? I need to look it over, was planning on doing an analysis of him anyways. I have a town read on BB. Couldn't all those bear references just as easily be Mr.Wiggles references? He is singing (wrote the Stan parody), and being a bear in a detective costume kinda is being masked? | ||
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Votes: Kavdragon (for mayor), Nemesis, Nemesis, LunarDestiny--> Bumatlarge Actions: Early game: + Show Spoiler + On January 24 2011 14:58 Kenpachi wrote: mayoral elections confuse the hell out of me ;;.. I honestly cant see the scummyness if shown so i think i would bandwagon for today. BUT, im voting Kavdragon for effort On January 24 2011 15:00 Kenpachi wrote: But wait, wheres DrH's campaign post thing? Lack of good reason, but nothing unusual for Kenpachi. + Show Spoiler + On January 26 2011 09:11 Kenpachi wrote: Yea this is a good idea. (not being sarcastic) I nominate myself to the position of body guard cause im a useless townie Volunteers as BG, green claim. Doesn’t really say much of his alignment. + Show Spoiler + On January 27 2011 15:24 Kenpachi wrote: r u 4 rela? Kita you bastard and your English language. And you to Mr. Zergling and Mr. Wiggles -_- Your counter clue analysis is weak Nemesis. I honestly think that clue was way too easy to find but only fits you.. On January 27 2011 15:28 Kenpachi wrote: fuck howd i miss Pandain's animals. BrownBear also likes kittens On January 27 2011 15:29 Kenpachi wrote: or rather kitty cats. These post tells us Kenpachi has been hunting for clues, which is a plus. This is the first of his posts regarding Nemesis. Note however he didn’t come up with the clue references, he just bandwagon. Mafia knows who the clues refer to, so coming up with a serius case on innocents based on a clue reference is counter-intuitive, it’s much easier to jump on someone else’s wrong analysis. Tunneling Nemesis: + Show Spoiler + On January 27 2011 15:37 Kenpachi wrote: yo RoL. bum's analysis on you is powerful shit. Can you defend yourself at all? Takes a break from Nemesis to hear about the RoL counterwagon. Calls RoL out, but never actually takes any stance on RoL. Clearly he must have been suspecting RoL to call him out? + Show Spoiler + On January 29 2011 08:58 Kenpachi wrote: Why the hell are the votes so split up.. just take down Nemesis please? Doesn’t actually defend RoL, just tell people to vote Nemesis. At this point he is tunnelling. He has not provided any reasons for why he is voting Nemesis, or why he would rather vote Nemesis than RoL. + Show Spoiler + On January 29 2011 12:35 Kenpachi wrote: wow you guys wtf. Even if Nemesis says hes Green, we will never know. He can be a lying scum ffs.. This is his reaction to Nemesis surving day 1: + Show Spoiler + On January 29 2011 13:00 Nemesis wrote: Something to note is that is that mr.wiggles suddenly changed his vote from abstaining to me when RoL was in danger of being lynched. Looking back at his post, he hasn't made any mentions of being suspicious of me. The only reason I can think of for his last minute change of vote is to save RoL. So if RoL flips scum, I would take a good look at this guy. His post are mostly fluff and he doesn't really take a position on anything. I suggest Mr. Wiggles for dt check/vigi hit. On January 29 2011 13:01 Kenpachi wrote: WTF GUYS WTF WTF WTF NEMESIS HOW sigh w/e. On January 29 2011 13:02 Kenpachi wrote: ^ good point though Clearly very upset with Nemesis surviving, but easily follow him into suspicion of mr.wiggles? He gets called out on this flipflopping by coag: + Show Spoiler + On January 29 2011 13:04 Coagulation wrote: your saying the guy that you cant believe didnt get lynched because you think hes scum Has a good point regarding who is possibly scum /facepalm His reaction: + Show Spoiler + On January 29 2011 13:10 Kenpachi wrote: IMO, instead of wasting your DT check on me, check Wiggles. I think itll bring back solid results (im trusting you Nemesis..) Now he is trusting Nemesis! And no-one has called for a DT check on him, or even mentioned they where suspececious of him. This is a clear over-reaction to being called out, a DT check is not the first worry of a green player. First post on day 3: On January 30 2011 11:29 Kenpachi wrote: okay uhh i think i want Nemesis dead ;l No more trusting Nemesis, back to tunnelling him. Note there was no additional evidence against nemesis between this post and his last. Then this follows: + Show Spoiler + On January 30 2011 11:30 Kenpachi wrote: oh wait nvm. On January 30 2011 11:36 Kenpachi wrote: I still think Nemesis was to be lynched yesterday. can we kill him today? These posts are a response to Jackal being the steel clue. This kind of flip-floping I actually find very town like. It’s the kind of doubt that someone without knowledge has. But I think Kenpachi is actually hunting for SK, and the mafia is just as unknowing of who the SK is as the town. The mafia probably figured steel wasn’t a reference to any of them by this point, and that it could very well be the reference to the serial killer. A mafia would appear very town like trying to find clues to the serial killer, it is only when hunting for mafia that they differ. Kenpachi doubting whether steel points to Jackal instead of Nemesis does therefore not clear him of suspicion. Defending Beneather While Kenpachi has been pushing for Nemesis, zerroth has launched Beneather as a clue reference. Kenpachi responds:+ Show Spoiler + On January 30 2011 11:40 Kenpachi wrote: at first those clues were piss poor but it looks alright.. I think hes Vig as he listened to our commands. Mafia hit people that are not under suspicion Instantly calls Beneather a vigi, even though we are missing 2 night hits. Very suspicious. + Show Spoiler + On January 30 2011 11:41 Kenpachi wrote: ^ refers to zerroth and Beneather. Imo, based on your activity and contributions in the past few days i assume your mafia trying to take down the vig without using your KP Straight into a chainsaw defense! By chainsaw defense I mean that he defends Beneather by accusing his accuser, zerroth. + Show Spoiler + On January 30 2011 11:42 Kenpachi wrote: Okay, so id like DT to check beneather next night and us to take out Nemesis today. Flipflop into not suspecting zerroth at all, but putting lynching Beneather off until a DT can check him? Look at the time stamps for those posts, WTF? + Show Spoiler + On January 30 2011 11:45 Kenpachi wrote: oh man Master Butcher lol its now obvious that is pointing to Beneather.. Is he Mafia, Vig, or SK is the question. On January 30 2011 11:47 Kenpachi wrote: FUCK IM NOT READING FURTHER LOL On January 30 2011 11:48 Kenpachi wrote: also Wiggles is a suspect from yesterday's last minute vote change.. Holds on to the possibility of Beneather being vig hit. The Mr.Wiggles mentioning could be an attempt to divert the talk, but really I don’t think these posts sais much. After this follows the Jackal bandwagon, and Kenpachi just spam a little with the rest of the town. He is quiet until it is suggested to switch the lynch to eti. His vote has been sitting on Nemesis the whole time: + Show Spoiler + On February 01 2011 08:21 Mr. Wiggles wrote: I'm willing to throw my support behind switching to eti as well, we have possible clues on all 3 people right now, but I don't feel great lynching any of them. eti hasn't really had a presence all game long, so I think it would serve well to rile up the lurkers. On February 01 2011 08:27 Kenpachi wrote: Wiggles no. just no nononono On February 01 2011 08:44 Kenpachi wrote: I MEAN WHY? KILL NEMESIS sorry the idea of changing to Eti at the last second is retarded. Tries to stop the diversion of the Nemesis lynch. To some degree I’m happy that he did, since we didn’t have to face that mess anymore, but it is very possible that mafia thought Nemesis was the SK at this point, and just wanted to finish him off. + Show Spoiler + This is his only post after Bum's claim. He completely ignored the discussion about Bum and Beneather, and just placed his vote on LunarD, then on Bum without a word. First of all this is way less activity than the other days, he cared a great deal for the Nemesis lynch, but now he is suddenly uninterested? Even though we just found scum? Summary and conclusion: Kenpachi’s actions this game can be summarized as volunteering for bodyguard, tunnelling Nemesis, defending Beneather, while suddenly disappearing when we found scum. He has been heavily flipflopping when Beneather was accused, tried to chainsaw defend him, and has only really been nurturing the steel clue. His behaviour has been mafia text book: hunting for SK, bandwagoning, tunnelling hard, flipflopping and chainsaw defending. His lack of activity after asking for medic protection for bum is very unlike his play on the other days. While he has not been super active, he has definitely been following the game, until shit hit the fan for mafia. Verdict: Mafia As a side note I feel alot better about Mr.Wiggles now. | ||
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In case I'm dead tomorrow, I think the remaining 2 mafia can be found by analysing who pushed the Lunar lynch. | ||
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On February 04 2011 21:28 Beneather wrote: It's hilarious how all the analysis have the verdict of: Mafia (: So how you liked first game as mafia? King of the world untill someone catches up on you right? | ||
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Did sin end up being modkilled? How many mislynches can we afford now? | ||
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On February 05 2011 12:45 LunarDestiny wrote: Mods, mafia, and town mindfucked me. Mafia set dt and roleblock trap for me. Mods encouraged me to keep playing. Mafia count dropped to 2 Town lynches LunarDestiny. Such a cruel fate for this SK. You where town mvp clue analyzer, and we even had you for medic protection. If he wasn't dead i would have voted for letting you kill coag as a thank you gift! (just kidding coag <3) | ||
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On February 06 2011 00:45 CubEdIn wrote: Also, no, we shouldn't kill lunar today. LSB clearly stated that Lunar can commit suicide. Lunar said he wanted to "retire". So technically, there's no reason to waste a lynch if Lunar just offs himself. I guess it's still a sort-of a risk, if he decides to kill someone for the lulz, but even in that case, he might hit a red, and we can lynch him afterwards. Worst case scenario, we just lose a townie. No reason to hand mafia an extra KP tonight. LunarD was convinced to play on, and there is no doubt he will hit town tonight. Mind updating the OP with the dead? I'm still not sure if Sinequity is dead or alive | ||
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There is always the chance of someone being innocent despite a great analysis, and we can afford more mislynches if lunar dies first. We might be guranteed to win if we hit mafia tonight, but if you think about it, the only way it's possible for us to lose is actually if lunar is alive and he helps mafia. | ||
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I like your case, but it's more beneficial for town to wait with killing mafia right now, and risk missing. Remember how tunneling Pandain in minimafia only helped mafia. | ||
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Prepare your case and push for it tomorrow, when we only have 2 mafia left and no sk. | ||
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Right now it's 11v2v1. If we lynch LD tonight, it's 10v2 tomorrow. This gives us atleast 4 lynches to hit 1 mafia. The only realistic chance at this point for mafia is to keep lunar alive, or hope for alot of modkilled townspeople. | ||
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IMO you should check blue tonight Kav. Lynching SK is the only "break" we get from hunting mafia, and if eti was a red, well then we will just realise we have won one day later. If we want blue info now is the time. | ||
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I suck at clue analysis, so help me out please. "Their pills, their medicines, could not race death." This suggest our killer is fast. We have had other clues earlier suggesting chase, speed and being cought. There are 3 different profiles that relates to speed: - Kenpachi's profile picture is from a manga, anyone know which? It looks like they are speeding. His name is some super fighter from a manga as well, also fast? - Impervious' picture is a horse with GG's on. Where is it from? Fast GG's? - Cubedin has speedtest in his profile. | ||
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The drugs in the picture could be the party drug amphetamine, commonly known as speed. | ||
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Most likely we won’t have any more census after tonight, and our original plan of just hitting 1 out of 2 mafia is screwed. We are still pretty well off however, usually it’s 5 town vs 2 mafia, but now we are 8. We also don’t start from a blank day 1. But this limits our information going forward. We won’t know if we hit red or green, until we see if we won or lost when only 4 players remain. This also means our best source of information, probably for the rest of the game, is the Bum lynch. During this cycle we hit red, and we hit them hard. Some behaviour changes are bound to have occurred. I suggest everyone read over people’s posts during that time (doesn’t take that long), and try to look at what people said and did. Here is my summary: People who pushed for LD lynch DivineK CubedIN BrownBear People who ignored SK/DT debate Impervious (argued we had scummy mayor instead) Kenpachi (disappeared from thread, but changed vote) People who argued against immediate LD lynch Darmousseh Kavdragon Jackal85 People who caught up on Bum’s DT checklist slip: Barundar Zzeroth KavDragon Changes after Kav’s analysis of bum: Impervious now thinks Kav is town. BrownBear gets convinced on Bum. After LD admit: Impervious argues against LD lynch Cubed argues for lynching LD and vigs hit Bum/Beneather Divinek calls people sheeps for switching to Bum. BrownBear produces analysis of Darmousseh Obviously the scum indicator is to push for LD lynch. DivineK and Cubed stands out to me in this regard. To a lesser degree Impervious, Kenpachi and BrownBear had some suspicious activity. A bunch of people show as town: Zzeroth (came up with Beneather clue analysis), Darmousseh, Jackal85, Kavdragon. | ||
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Providing clues and arguments for lynching SK doesn't do you any favors. Thats what mafia bussing is all about. In my opinion at least 1 of Divinek and Cubed is scum, and possibly both. | ||
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On February 09 2011 23:55 CubEdIn wrote: I am suspicious of everyone. Fear not. I didn't ask anyone to claim (in fact, if you'll read my posts I always advised against claiming), since I was under the impression that there are town circles. It could also be verified in other ways as well. And please see PYP mafia to understand why I pushed SK lynch. And if the mods wouldn't have verified him via the PM think, would you have let him kill the person who claimed DT? That's the smart town move? Are you honestly trying to say that if you had no information on bumatlarge you would've lynched the claimed DT first, because he claimed? Without trying to verify if he's even telling the truth? Or the bodyguard? Which of them was the PRO-TOWN choice? Maybe you have the 6th sense and realized they were mafia, I didn't. And I clearly explained my reasoning 10 times over. And most players agreed (like GM and Kav) that it's best to kill SK rather than have him hit one of them. I'm sure that in retrospect, it's easy to say "you were trying to save scum", but I did no such thing. Go over my posts again if you think so. And besides, I'll say this again: Me and BrownBear were the only one arguing FOR lynching LunarDestiny, but the thread was full of votes for him. What about the mass that voted for him without even bothering to explain? Why is that irrelevant? There are at least 3-4 people in this game that are just cruising along with 1-2 posts per day. That's not suspicious, right? And yeah Jackal, I know it's easy, I can do that as well, vote for you at the beginning of the day and then stay out of all town discussions. It's good that everyone is playing along and letting you be, it's not suspicious or anything. And I get it that you think I'm scum, but how about trying to find more links rather than the day one clue. Statistically speaking, I should have partaken in at least 2-3 of the kills so far, no? I read your posts, did you? And yeah people including myself voted for lunar, since it was clear he was anti town, but we kept the possibility of using ld open. Question was on who, not if it was a possibility. Even after it was clear that bum and beneather was scum, you and divenek pushed on for lynching LD. Kav and coag led the votes on bum/beneather, 1 is dead and the other is soon to be. Mafia didnt bus their own, town did. But mafia wouldnt let 2 of them die without a fight if they didn't bus them themselves. Only 2 people did keep trying to divert the lynch to LD, you and divinek. Now im willing to believe one of you could be a misguided town. But not both of you. Hence you both need to die. | ||
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On February 10 2011 03:41 CubEdIn wrote: What are you talking about. I always said that if town wants to use LD I'm in. You're blaming me again for not changing my vote during the last 3 hours of the day? I posted like once and went to sleep after bum was "confirmed". I didn't push squat. This was the only post after confirmation of bum: How is that pushing? How was I to know everyone would change their vote, and I'd get blamed for not playing along? Why would we not get rid or both ld and scum if we had vigs? And how would I know (even if I were mafia) that we had no vigs? Nobody claimed to be a vigilante and there were no extra KPs that could be unexplained, so it made sense that vigs would still have their power (had they been alive). ... Oh i agree divinek's behavior is more suspecious. But you don't really take that into consideration, or post your thoughts on him do you? All you do is just repeat yourself over and over, saying you are innocent. | ||
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I'm glad we switched off Impervious. You have a lot of really scummy posts, but where dying too easily. I'm still suspicious of you though. I’ve been suspicious of cubedin since this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=184939¤tpage=51#1005 I pressured him over the next few pages. He claimed he was certain of one person whom he had a case against, yet he was talking wishy washy against 3 others and placing a weak vote. Much like his vote on Impervious. Later he claimed that the person he had been suspicious off was GMarshal. He promised to post his case no matter what, and it didn’t happen. He never posted any reasons for suspecting GMarshal, in fact he understood why Kav choose him as BG: On January 26 2011 19:54 CubEdIn wrote: Morning everyone. I scanned over the thread, got one question: Kav, why Beneather? I get GMarshal, but what was your reasoning for the second BG pick? I think it's important that we know, and I didn't see an explanation or him volunteering. I might have missed it, in which case I'm sorry, but I do believe it's crucial information. … This was posted just one cycle before he was so certain of GMarshal, that he would have killed him if he had been a vigi or SK. I call bullshit, GMarshal was just an excuse for him since I kept bugging him to produce that case. Before the divenek lynch, it took a long while for Cubed to produce an opinion on divenek, and even then it didn't come until he had written opinions on everyone else. It's clear from his writing that he would much rather be grouped with BrownBear than divenek. Mafia would much rather be grouped with a town than with another mafia. My suspect list right now is 1. Cubedin 2. Impervious 3. Kenpachi | ||
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Well if I were to bring pressure down on GMarshall, and he was indeed SK as I thought, then he could simply kill me during the night. There was never a time when town was lacking lynch subjects, and I wasn't going to stick out and have possibly one-two people with me, and everyone else fighting about Nemesis or RoL (or whatever they were doing, there were always several lynch candidates). Oh now you think he was an SK? Thats not what you posted back then: Also, I'm not very good at posting 500 word essays about why someone is scum based on a few posts that I picked. So I tried to focus on clues. I have someone in mind, that I would definitely kill if I were SK, or mayor on day 1, or things like that, but there's not nearly enough evidence for me to try and build a case against them. Yet. I didn't produce opinions on ANYONE. Please understand that. When I did, I produced opinions on everyone. I'm not taking sides. If you want to pick Divinek out of that, be my guest. So you play mafia as town by finding people you would argue against lynching? Somehow I doubt that. And you clearly had an opinion on GMarshal, yet we lack a reason. Besides, you're acting as if Divinek is sure scum. Do you know that? Why are you assuming that I tried to "defend" him, even though I didn't, and now that he flipped scum, even though he didn't, I am backing out. I think we hit scum yes. I posted my reasons why. I never said you tried to defend divinek, I said you distanced yourself from him. But you know what, I'm cool with that. Here's what I'm gonna do. I'm not gonna defend myself anymore. If you wanna lynch me, that's fine, but note this: If you misslynch now, and there are two mafia left, tomrrow will be lylo time. Have fun with killing me. Exactly the gamble a lone mafia would put up. If you where town this would be when you started fighting, not several pages ago. | ||
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On January 11 2011 18:45 CubEdIn wrote: Ok here are my thoughts: 1. First I thought aidnai is scummy. Mostly because he's been extremely passive with his posts. Not taking any sides, not pushing anything, just trying to favor other people's ideas so as to not actually draw attention when the shit hits the fan. 2. Then I saw the analysis on LoL, and I figured, ok, that looks like a decent plan for town, high chance of it going well, might clarify some things, seems like a good day 1 vote. 3. Then aidnai starts defending him out of the blue. This changes everything. My gut feeling says that LoL is in fact townie, and aidnai knows this, and since he already has a mini-bandwagon going for him, aidnai thinks it's a good idea to defend him, so when he gets lynched and turns green, he will be absolved of guilt. I'm just thinking all this because it's more or less exactly what I'd do if I was scum and targeted so brutally on day 1. I know it's not good enough evidence, but I need to go with it for now. If town will need one extra vote to lynch LoL, I might change it, but for now... ##Vote aidnai Such a big difference from this game. | ||
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I don't see any point discussing this further with you, we get clues in day post, and my opinion might change by then. | ||
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Town MVP: KavDragon. Ballsy to run mayor as medic! Upon seeing the rolelists and actions I'm really impressed with BrownBear as well, he contributed enough not to be suspecious, yet layed low enough not to get targeted by mafia. Also obviously well done by wiggles, but honestly you could have contributed more I'm pretty damn proud of my scumdar. I got substituted in, and picked out Beneather and Papapanda as suspects from their first posts. I pressured divenek and cubed when I picked up on their posting day 2. I didn't pick up on bum, and I posted a wrong analysis of Kenpachi for like the third game in a row, otherwise spot on. I simply can't seem to read Kenpachi right GJ mafia killing off some of the important town roles. @Kav, imo I did alot to prove I was town to you, but on the other hand it wasn't really necessary to give me the blue info, so you made the right decission keeping it secret I think. Regarding masons, you made the right decission not to move all scumhunting to PM's and claim to have an all powerful towncircle. I think you used it really well. Your biggest mistake in this game imo, was to argue for vigi's not claiming. At that point I was pretty convinced you where town or SK, but such a scummy plan hit my conviction hard. IMO it caused confusion the day after as well. @Bum: I loved that you had the courage to fake claim, it creates alot of interesting gameplay. It's kind of strange, I've played on this forum for a few months now, but I have yet to see a DT check and get someone lynched. @Node and LSB, thanks for hosting! | ||
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On February 12 2011 02:40 Divinek wrote: yeah I'll never stop hitting myself in the head as an objective bystander thinking why a town would trust an SK with nothing to lose LD had sided with town as SK before (insane I think?). He had tried to hit scum the night before (deconduo). He clearly didn't like getting exposed by mafia. There was some really good reasons to trust him in my opinion. Barundar gets my vote for MVP for changing my mind about the imperivous lynch. I mis-read the fact that no one was opposing the lynch as more evidence that he was scum. Meh I didn't get scum lynched, you did. Happy to be of service though | ||
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