On February 04 2011 11:07 BrownBear wrote:ANALYSIS: DARMOUSSEH
I've had this niggling doubt about darmousseh for a while now, and I've decided it's time to figure out what he is, once and for all.
VITAL INFO:
Posts in thread since start of game: 100 (quite the busy boy)
Profile Picture: A fan blowing 2 vuvuzelas (noise, instruments, anything similar)
Quote: "May the forcefield be with you" (forcefields? this isnt that helpful)
Profile: "I like mountain dew, programming, baseball, football (the real kind, not hand-egg), sci fi, starcraft 2, civilization 4 (5 is ok), and my wife of course
I'm 24 (agh old) and live in san jose, ca where i make websites all day. Oh yeah, i'm born on christmas day"
CLUE CONNECTIONS:
Day 1: crescendo, band breaking into another song, could relate to the vuvuzela. Very shitty connection, though
Day 2: That blood-curdling scream, nothing an animal could make - vuvuzela? A better connection than Day 1, certainly. I guess that depends on Node's sense of humor.
Day 3: Can't really see much
Day 4: Can't really see much either...
Ok, so clues are a wash, but analysis > clues, so lets go over his posts.
ANALYSIS OF DARMOUSSEH:
He starts out with the usual /confirm, excited about playing post, then a one-liner about how scary the possibility of a scum mayor is, then some real-life justification as to why bodyguards are public. Nothing out of the ordinary here. Disappears until after the Day 1 post.
Show nested quote +On January 25 2011 01:45 darmousseh wrote:On January 25 2011 01:39 darmousseh wrote:
Who should be volunteering as bodyguards? Those with blue abilities or just normal townies?
I would expect voting just normal townies would be best which I why I would be willing to volunteer myself. Also, being a townie is kinda boring.
First 2 posts since the REAL start of the game, is a noob question and a greenclaim. Greenclaims mean nothing, though (doesn't mean he's lying, just that over half the game can claim green, so mafia can very easily hide amongst them). He also volunteers to be a bodyguard. This is an interesting thing to do. We've spent a lot of time talking about how high-profile targets bodyguards will be, and as far as I can tell this is dar's first game. It's a strange move for a newb townie to volunteer to a position that at that point, we all thought was going to die in the first couple cycles. New players tend to try to live as long as possible (a perfectly rational response), so the only way this makes sense is if dar already has experience with this setup. But that makes no sense for a couple reasons:
1) This is a weird setup (normally roles flip on death and bodyguards are randomly and secretly selected)
2) If dar was experienced, why would he ask noob questions in the first place?
So yeah, there's that.
Show nested quote +On January 25 2011 02:10 darmousseh wrote:On January 25 2011 01:58 BrownBear wrote:I'm comfortable with RoL for the time being... at least, more comfortable than I am with anyone else except Dr H, and he's thrown support behind RoL.
It's no offense to Kav or kitaman, I just don't know their playstyles as well.
On January 25 2011 01:39 darmousseh wrote:
Who should be volunteering as bodyguards? Those with blue abilities or just normal townies?
Nobody should be volunteering yet, I don't think volunteering is a good strategy. If we volunteer greens, it lowers the number of people in the pool of potential blues, so mafia can easily bluesnipe. If we volunteer blues, it's basically saying "HEY MAFIA FREE BLUES GO GO GO"
Blues' greatest asset is their anonymity and the ability to hide amongst the greens, and we want to preserve that as long as possible.
I see, that makes sense.
This is the first in a recurring theme of dar's posts where someone says something and dar just quotes them and posts a 1-2 line agreement. This happens
a lot. Now, I understand that a lot of players post some posts like this (hell, I do), but not with the frequency dar does. Now, I'd like to draw everyone's attention to something Jackal just posted.
Show nested quote +On February 04 2011 10:25 Jackal58 wrote:On February 04 2011 10:18 BrownBear wrote:On February 04 2011 09:02 LunarDestiny wrote:Based off of public information, we do NOT know that BrownBear is scum. Lunar, I know he tried to kill you, but that doesn't mean he's scum. If you want to build an analysis against him, that's fine. Is there another reason that you want to kill him?
He is an experienced player but used false logic:
LD is SK and missed shots. He sucks at scum hunting and is not likely to shoot mafia in the future even if he is kept alive.
Color me impressed by your in-depth analysis of me, complete with it's own table of contents, index, and fancy color-coded chapters.
Bravo.
Also, Jackal, you have shown me absolutely no reason to trust your analysis or clue-hunting, at all. I freely admit to that. What I do know is scum needs to contribute nothing but agreements and town self destructs all by itself.
Jackal's absolutely right, he's just aiming his criticism at the wrong person. I've been actively trying to analyze, come up with ideas, help town, etc. etc. dar is doing exactly what a good scum player would do - just agree with the masses. In short, he's a sheeple at best, and scum at the very worst.
Show nested quote +On January 25 2011 07:35 darmousseh wrote:I'm a little confused right now.
On January 24 2011 12:49 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
##Vote: Kavdragon
Calls out RoL for acting weird about his mayoral campaign. Good call-out, actually.
Show nested quote +On January 25 2011 09:04 darmousseh wrote:On January 25 2011 08:26 Nemesis wrote:We stilil have plenty of time to change votes.
Woot, looks like RoL is now seriously running
RoL for mayor everyone!
And I seriously don't want to have kavdragon for mayor. He is pushing for a scummy plan right from the beginning with the bodyguard volunteering.
It has already been covered by multiple people why that is a bad idea. Even if only 4 people volunteered, that still narrows down the list of blues.
And there is still the same chance of picking mafia as before(mafia can just volunteer). There is no advantage to town whatsover to volunteering bodyguard.
Well theres a few scenarios
1. Mayor is townie or blue. Volunteers are both townies, mafia hits bodyguards and then hits mayor. Pro: Get 3 days of information Cons: lost 3 townies, no information on mafia
2. Mayor is townie or blue. Volunteers are both scum. Mafia hits bodyguards, we get 2 mafia right away. Mafia doesn't hit bodyguards, in like 4-5 days we role check the bodyguards. Any case, mafia lose both bodyguards.
3. Mayor is scum. Volunteers are both townies. Mafia kills bodyguards. Mafia doesn't do anything, mayor eventually lynched. If mafia doesn't kill bodyguards, then highly likely mayor is scum.
4. Mayor is scum, volunteers are scum. (Do scum bodyguards protect scum mayor?). Scum gets tons of information.
Scenario 4 is obviously the best scenario for scum, but the fact that kavdragon is suggesting volunteers means that he will either 1. Choose the volunteers himself (which is an indication of scum) or 2. let the town choose the volunteers based on voting in the thread.
In either case, if kavdragon was scum, then he would want to hand pick his bodyguards (and hide the fact that he was hand picking).
Ooh, a serious post. Takes a look at each scenario that could play out. It's a bit simplistic, though. And his logic is flawed in several spots. Take a look at scenario 1: The pro is we get 3 days of info. The con is we get no info? I'm confused. Or Scenario 3: If mafia doesn't kill bodyguards, then mayor is scum? Mafia hasn't killed bodyguards yet, but that's due to medic intervention + mafia possibly getting mindgamed by medics. Pretty sure Kav is town. If not, he's one of the best mafia mayors TL has ever seen.
Point is, this post reeks of bad logic. And we all know what bad logic means.
Show nested quote +On January 25 2011 17:19 darmousseh wrote:On January 25 2011 16:45 BrownBear wrote:
RoL has the better plan for the mayorship IMO. However, Kav has been more far more active than RoL.
Makes this tough. I wish we had more than 2 serious candidates.
I think part of it too is that so much rides on the mayoral candidate. They are the key to getting important information and a centerpiece to persuading townies to look at certain facts and viewpoints.
This is a post that states the obvious, but makes him look smart and knowledgable, as though he's contributing. In short, a pretty scummy post.
Show nested quote +On January 26 2011 05:29 darmousseh wrote:
Option 4: Vetclaim: Two Veterans claim, they are chosen as bodyguards.
Upside: Vets are tough to kill, make excellent bodyguards. Essentially make mayor invulnerable for at least 3-4 cycles.
Downside: Reds can STILL claim to mess it up (and they will.) Vets more useful hidden amongst the town, to soak hits. No guarantee this setup has two vets.
Verdict: If it wasn't for the fact that reds can claim, I'd be in support of this idea. I personally think vets would be more useful ensuring we have census for basically the entire game than sitting in the silent majority, hoping they can soak up a hit. However, there's no way a smart mafia team wouldn't have a goon claim vet, with no way to prove/disprove it, and that's a 66% chance we run into the 1 town-1 scum setup. So no.
I think this one is the best.
upside. Vets are tough to kill, and can be protected if necessary, mayor can live a long time. Anyone that claims to be a vet and ends up not being a vet as a bodyguard would be instantly identified as scum. Scum will probably have 1 person claim vet, in which case we can use role checks to check out the identities. Also, in the end, if vets aren't used to soak up kills, then they are wasted. By volunteering for bodyguards we can almost ensure that their abilities are used for the benefit of town. Also if we get lucky and get 2 vets then the mayor can be alive for almost the entire game if played correctly. The other thing too is that we would be less likely to lynch a vet since they will be selected as bodyguards and not in the pool of people we would want to lynch.
downside. Reds can claim and mess it up, but they will be identified more quickly and it will be more of a risk since that will mean 2 reds lynched and 2 vets still in town.
I'm still trying to think of the risk of an SK getting chosen to be a bodyguard.
Interesting... Very interesting... it's like he didn't even read my verdict. There's no way that 2 reds would claim vet, and even if they did, how does that mean we get 2 red lynches and save 2 vets? At best, we probably lynch one vet and 2 reds. Nevermind the fact that this wouldn't happen. Most likely scenario is 1 mafia claims, we have 3 vet claims, we end up picking 2 of them as bodyguard, mafia gets a scum bodyguard, at least 1 vet gets killed early on, and our vets were useless. It's almost as though he really wants this to happen, he made the idea sound so appealing by highlighting an absolutely best-case scenario where 2 mafia claimed vets and the real vets
didn't.
I could go on, but I haven't even reached the end of day 1 and I'm already almost convinced.
TO SUMMARIZE:
1) darmousseh plays the noob card quite a bit, asking very nooby questions, but then contradicts that by posting a lot of clarifying posts that are intended to make himself look smart and informed.
2) darmousseh posts these clarifying posts as a way to appear active and helpful without actually being so.
3) when darmousseh actually posts analysis or ideas, they're very shoddy and have bad logic.
4) darmousseh is very sycophantic, more so than the average player, especially to those posting big long analysis posts.
CONCLUSION:
The fact remains he has tenuous to zero clue connections. However, given his play so far, I have no problem FoSing darmousseh as
Probably scum.If people aren't convinced, I'm more than happy to analyze more of his posts, but this post is long enough as is.
EPT![[image loading]](http://ciaran-walsh.com/images/Kosinski/H3/halo_1.jpg)
