EPTRight now it's 11v2v1. If we lynch LD tonight, it's 10v2 tomorrow. This gives us atleast 4 lynches to hit 1 mafia. The only realistic chance at this point for mafia is to keep lunar alive, or hope for alot of modkilled townspeople.
TL Mafia XXXVI - Page 4
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
Right now it's 11v2v1. If we lynch LD tonight, it's 10v2 tomorrow. This gives us atleast 4 lynches to hit 1 mafia. The only realistic chance at this point for mafia is to keep lunar alive, or hope for alot of modkilled townspeople. | ||
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
IMO you should check blue tonight Kav. Lynching SK is the only "break" we get from hunting mafia, and if eti was a red, well then we will just realise we have won one day later. If we want blue info now is the time. | ||
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
I suck at clue analysis, so help me out please. "Their pills, their medicines, could not race death." This suggest our killer is fast. We have had other clues earlier suggesting chase, speed and being cought. There are 3 different profiles that relates to speed: - Kenpachi's profile picture is from a manga, anyone know which? It looks like they are speeding. His name is some super fighter from a manga as well, also fast? - Impervious' picture is a horse with GG's on. Where is it from? Fast GG's? - Cubedin has speedtest in his profile. | ||
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
The drugs in the picture could be the party drug amphetamine, commonly known as speed. | ||
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
Most likely we won’t have any more census after tonight, and our original plan of just hitting 1 out of 2 mafia is screwed. We are still pretty well off however, usually it’s 5 town vs 2 mafia, but now we are 8. We also don’t start from a blank day 1. But this limits our information going forward. We won’t know if we hit red or green, until we see if we won or lost when only 4 players remain. This also means our best source of information, probably for the rest of the game, is the Bum lynch. During this cycle we hit red, and we hit them hard. Some behaviour changes are bound to have occurred. I suggest everyone read over people’s posts during that time (doesn’t take that long), and try to look at what people said and did. Here is my summary: People who pushed for LD lynch DivineK CubedIN BrownBear People who ignored SK/DT debate Impervious (argued we had scummy mayor instead) Kenpachi (disappeared from thread, but changed vote) People who argued against immediate LD lynch Darmousseh Kavdragon Jackal85 People who caught up on Bum’s DT checklist slip: Barundar Zzeroth KavDragon Changes after Kav’s analysis of bum: Impervious now thinks Kav is town. BrownBear gets convinced on Bum. After LD admit: Impervious argues against LD lynch Cubed argues for lynching LD and vigs hit Bum/Beneather Divinek calls people sheeps for switching to Bum. BrownBear produces analysis of Darmousseh Obviously the scum indicator is to push for LD lynch. DivineK and Cubed stands out to me in this regard. To a lesser degree Impervious, Kenpachi and BrownBear had some suspicious activity. A bunch of people show as town: Zzeroth (came up with Beneather clue analysis), Darmousseh, Jackal85, Kavdragon. | ||
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
Providing clues and arguments for lynching SK doesn't do you any favors. Thats what mafia bussing is all about. In my opinion at least 1 of Divinek and Cubed is scum, and possibly both. | ||
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
On February 09 2011 23:55 CubEdIn wrote: I am suspicious of everyone. Fear not. I didn't ask anyone to claim (in fact, if you'll read my posts I always advised against claiming), since I was under the impression that there are town circles. It could also be verified in other ways as well. And please see PYP mafia to understand why I pushed SK lynch. And if the mods wouldn't have verified him via the PM think, would you have let him kill the person who claimed DT? That's the smart town move? Are you honestly trying to say that if you had no information on bumatlarge you would've lynched the claimed DT first, because he claimed? Without trying to verify if he's even telling the truth? Or the bodyguard? Which of them was the PRO-TOWN choice? Maybe you have the 6th sense and realized they were mafia, I didn't. And I clearly explained my reasoning 10 times over. And most players agreed (like GM and Kav) that it's best to kill SK rather than have him hit one of them. I'm sure that in retrospect, it's easy to say "you were trying to save scum", but I did no such thing. Go over my posts again if you think so. And besides, I'll say this again: Me and BrownBear were the only one arguing FOR lynching LunarDestiny, but the thread was full of votes for him. What about the mass that voted for him without even bothering to explain? Why is that irrelevant? There are at least 3-4 people in this game that are just cruising along with 1-2 posts per day. That's not suspicious, right? And yeah Jackal, I know it's easy, I can do that as well, vote for you at the beginning of the day and then stay out of all town discussions. It's good that everyone is playing along and letting you be, it's not suspicious or anything. And I get it that you think I'm scum, but how about trying to find more links rather than the day one clue. Statistically speaking, I should have partaken in at least 2-3 of the kills so far, no? I read your posts, did you? And yeah people including myself voted for lunar, since it was clear he was anti town, but we kept the possibility of using ld open. Question was on who, not if it was a possibility. Even after it was clear that bum and beneather was scum, you and divenek pushed on for lynching LD. Kav and coag led the votes on bum/beneather, 1 is dead and the other is soon to be. Mafia didnt bus their own, town did. But mafia wouldnt let 2 of them die without a fight if they didn't bus them themselves. Only 2 people did keep trying to divert the lynch to LD, you and divinek. Now im willing to believe one of you could be a misguided town. But not both of you. Hence you both need to die. | ||
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
On February 10 2011 03:41 CubEdIn wrote: What are you talking about. I always said that if town wants to use LD I'm in. You're blaming me again for not changing my vote during the last 3 hours of the day? I posted like once and went to sleep after bum was "confirmed". I didn't push squat. This was the only post after confirmation of bum: How is that pushing? How was I to know everyone would change their vote, and I'd get blamed for not playing along? Why would we not get rid or both ld and scum if we had vigs? And how would I know (even if I were mafia) that we had no vigs? Nobody claimed to be a vigilante and there were no extra KPs that could be unexplained, so it made sense that vigs would still have their power (had they been alive). ... Oh i agree divinek's behavior is more suspecious. But you don't really take that into consideration, or post your thoughts on him do you? All you do is just repeat yourself over and over, saying you are innocent. | ||
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
I'm glad we switched off Impervious. You have a lot of really scummy posts, but where dying too easily. I'm still suspicious of you though. I’ve been suspicious of cubedin since this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=184939¤tpage=51#1005 I pressured him over the next few pages. He claimed he was certain of one person whom he had a case against, yet he was talking wishy washy against 3 others and placing a weak vote. Much like his vote on Impervious. Later he claimed that the person he had been suspicious off was GMarshal. He promised to post his case no matter what, and it didn’t happen. He never posted any reasons for suspecting GMarshal, in fact he understood why Kav choose him as BG: On January 26 2011 19:54 CubEdIn wrote: Morning everyone. I scanned over the thread, got one question: Kav, why Beneather? I get GMarshal, but what was your reasoning for the second BG pick? I think it's important that we know, and I didn't see an explanation or him volunteering. I might have missed it, in which case I'm sorry, but I do believe it's crucial information. … This was posted just one cycle before he was so certain of GMarshal, that he would have killed him if he had been a vigi or SK. I call bullshit, GMarshal was just an excuse for him since I kept bugging him to produce that case. Before the divenek lynch, it took a long while for Cubed to produce an opinion on divenek, and even then it didn't come until he had written opinions on everyone else. It's clear from his writing that he would much rather be grouped with BrownBear than divenek. Mafia would much rather be grouped with a town than with another mafia. My suspect list right now is 1. Cubedin 2. Impervious 3. Kenpachi | ||
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
Well if I were to bring pressure down on GMarshall, and he was indeed SK as I thought, then he could simply kill me during the night. There was never a time when town was lacking lynch subjects, and I wasn't going to stick out and have possibly one-two people with me, and everyone else fighting about Nemesis or RoL (or whatever they were doing, there were always several lynch candidates). Oh now you think he was an SK? Thats not what you posted back then: Also, I'm not very good at posting 500 word essays about why someone is scum based on a few posts that I picked. So I tried to focus on clues. I have someone in mind, that I would definitely kill if I were SK, or mayor on day 1, or things like that, but there's not nearly enough evidence for me to try and build a case against them. Yet. I didn't produce opinions on ANYONE. Please understand that. When I did, I produced opinions on everyone. I'm not taking sides. If you want to pick Divinek out of that, be my guest. So you play mafia as town by finding people you would argue against lynching? Somehow I doubt that. And you clearly had an opinion on GMarshal, yet we lack a reason. Besides, you're acting as if Divinek is sure scum. Do you know that? Why are you assuming that I tried to "defend" him, even though I didn't, and now that he flipped scum, even though he didn't, I am backing out. I think we hit scum yes. I posted my reasons why. I never said you tried to defend divinek, I said you distanced yourself from him. But you know what, I'm cool with that. Here's what I'm gonna do. I'm not gonna defend myself anymore. If you wanna lynch me, that's fine, but note this: If you misslynch now, and there are two mafia left, tomrrow will be lylo time. Have fun with killing me. Exactly the gamble a lone mafia would put up. If you where town this would be when you started fighting, not several pages ago. | ||
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
On January 11 2011 18:45 CubEdIn wrote: Ok here are my thoughts: 1. First I thought aidnai is scummy. Mostly because he's been extremely passive with his posts. Not taking any sides, not pushing anything, just trying to favor other people's ideas so as to not actually draw attention when the shit hits the fan. 2. Then I saw the analysis on LoL, and I figured, ok, that looks like a decent plan for town, high chance of it going well, might clarify some things, seems like a good day 1 vote. 3. Then aidnai starts defending him out of the blue. This changes everything. My gut feeling says that LoL is in fact townie, and aidnai knows this, and since he already has a mini-bandwagon going for him, aidnai thinks it's a good idea to defend him, so when he gets lynched and turns green, he will be absolved of guilt. I'm just thinking all this because it's more or less exactly what I'd do if I was scum and targeted so brutally on day 1. I know it's not good enough evidence, but I need to go with it for now. If town will need one extra vote to lynch LoL, I might change it, but for now... ##Vote aidnai Such a big difference from this game. | ||
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
I don't see any point discussing this further with you, we get clues in day post, and my opinion might change by then. | ||
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
 Town MVP: KavDragon. Ballsy to run mayor as medic! Upon seeing the rolelists and actions I'm really impressed with BrownBear as well, he contributed enough not to be suspecious, yet layed low enough not to get targeted by mafia. Also obviously well done by wiggles, but honestly you could have contributed more  I'm pretty damn proud of my scumdar. I got substituted in, and picked out Beneather and Papapanda as suspects from their first posts. I pressured divenek and cubed when I picked up on their posting day 2. I didn't pick up on bum, and I posted a wrong analysis of Kenpachi for like the third game in a row, otherwise spot on. I simply can't seem to read Kenpachi right  GJ mafia killing off some of the important town roles. @Kav, imo I did alot to prove I was town to you, but on the other hand it wasn't really necessary to give me the blue info, so you made the right decission keeping it secret I think. Regarding masons, you made the right decission not to move all scumhunting to PM's and claim to have an all powerful towncircle. I think you used it really well. Your biggest mistake in this game imo, was to argue for vigi's not claiming. At that point I was pretty convinced you where town or SK, but such a scummy plan hit my conviction hard. IMO it caused confusion the day after as well. @Bum: I loved that you had the courage to fake claim, it creates alot of interesting gameplay. It's kind of strange, I've played on this forum for a few months now, but I have yet to see a DT check and get someone lynched. @Node and LSB, thanks for hosting! | ||
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
On February 12 2011 02:40 Divinek wrote: yeah I'll never stop hitting myself in the head as an objective bystander thinking why a town would trust an SK with nothing to lose LD had sided with town as SK before (insane I think?). He had tried to hit scum the night before (deconduo). He clearly didn't like getting exposed by mafia. There was some really good reasons to trust him in my opinion. Barundar gets my vote for MVP for changing my mind about the imperivous lynch. I mis-read the fact that no one was opposing the lynch as more evidence that he was scum. Meh I didn't get scum lynched, you did. Happy to be of service though | ||
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
<3 | ||
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