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TL Mafia XXXVI - Page 3

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 02 2011 03:08 GMT
#1583
you are kidding me? we have yet to hit a mafia with a lynch?
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 02 2011 03:13 GMT
#1585
Did you have to reveal that kitaman is a Medic? That puts him at risk, although if you are telling the truth we have to hang Lunar.
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 02 2011 03:49 GMT
#1593
LunarDestiny, are you willing to deal? Town could use a night kill and since you are bullet proof you have nothing to fear from mafia, at this point I think we could offer you survival for a while in exchange for your night kills.

(also what does the rest of the town think of this?)
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 02 2011 04:13 GMT
#1600
On February 02 2011 13:06 Divinek wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 02 2011 13:03 Jackal58 wrote:
On February 02 2011 12:49 GMarshal wrote:
LunarDestiny, are you willing to deal? Town could use a night kill and since you are bullet proof you have nothing to fear from mafia, at this point I think we could offer you survival for a while in exchange for your night kills.

(also what does the rest of the town think of this?)

Why not? It's a second lynch without a lynch. Not like we can be any more fucked up than we've been.


are you guys for fucking serious? BIG FOS on both of you

an SK would never openly admit it and try to bargain with town, where would that get him? sure he'd live a few more days but he could NEVER win.

Only mafia could reasonably want to keep an SK alive after they have been identified


I dont think you get it we aren't offering LunarDestiny a choice between serving town or some better deal, if lunar deviates at all from the towns instructions (which I think we should determine by majority vote) he hangs, I dont see where the disadvantage to giving town a second KP is.
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 02 2011 04:23 GMT
#1605
On February 02 2011 13:13 Divinek wrote:
allow me to ellaborate on my earlier point

having TWO kp per cycle is not as beneficial to town, because we have less information. As you can tell thus far our kill selections have been off the mark. The longer the game goes on the more info we get (clues + analysis) so the fewer kills the better. THUS only mafia would want to keep an SK alive to limit the amount of info town can get from clues (as some clues go to sk) and just plain THE GAME ENDS SOONER



Sure the game ends sooner,but now we dont have to ask vigis to hit inactives we can direct which inactives get hit by our SK and then focus the lynch on the scummiest target around, if we decide for some reason that we are going through people to fast we lynch lunar. I dont see what your issue with this plan is
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 02 2011 04:26 GMT
#1606
apparently you aren't willing to be reasonable LD, so here's whats probably going to happen you are going to hang and then mayor will do a census on SK if it reports zero then the DT is confirmed, otherwise we hang him
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 02 2011 04:55 GMT
#1618
On February 02 2011 13:18 LunarDestiny wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 02 2011 12:08 bumatlarge wrote:
Well, before things get out of hand, hold this open can of worms for me.

I am a detective

Night 1: kitaman27 is Medic
Night 2: Beneather is Vanilla Town
Night 3: LunarDestiny is [black]Serial Killer[/black]

+ Show Spoiler +
What the hell is this shit?

Looks like a DT claim to me, but I'm no expert


Analyze the meaning of this dt claim and ask yourself would a town aligned player do this claim.

To reduce the number of kps in the field and buy town more time? after all each non mafia death brings us one step closer to defeat


If Bumatlarge is telling the truth:

-The final push for this dt claim is detecting that I am SK. But why would a town want to expose the SK. Mafia wouldn't choose to hit this presumed SK and target other town.
Of course not, if the DT points out the SK its so that town can hang him, nothing else


-If Bumatlarge just want to lynch me, he could just have said that Lunar is SK or Mafia (don't know why he chose the former unless he is mafia and don't want lynching me to affect the presumed mafia count=5). Then the other two pieces of information is useless. What good would exposing the medic do? Nothing except for sparing him as lynch. As of now, claiming that Beneather is vanilla town is pointless since we are not lynching because of his bodyguard status.

But his choice of checks makes sense, at least in my opinion, plus the Beneather check keeps us from hanging a bodyguard stupidly if this is true. Notice how he waited until the medic was dead (not that I noticed originally mind you)


If you look at another view point that Bumatlarge is mafia and lying:
He named me as SK to lynch me. Didn't just say I am mafia because it will bring the presumed mafia count down to 4 and be counter claimed by census.

This is true but the census will also prove if you are SK or not


After Deconduo's death, only 1 of the 2 dog profile left is Beneather. Since dog meat is very likely to be a clue. He is trying to protect Beneather.

I could see this I guess, but after hanging you we will know weather or not he was lying, if he was then he just gave us two mafia for one townie


The reason for Kitaman is medic is rolefishing. What he want Kitaman to do? Claim medic?
Kitaman is dead as was so kindly pointed out by a bunch of people


And also the clue pointing at me. Those clues are even less convincing than the clues we found.

I'm tempted to ignore clues altogether (not really I'm just not good at finding them) but they seem to have been leading the town down a bad path, we haven't hung any mafia that we know of off clues, we might as well try the time tested DTs and behavioral analysis in conjunction with that for a day, no?


I ask people to read his dt claim carefully and think of the motive for his claim (is it pro-town or anti-town).
I just did, there you go



Just my two cents.
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 02 2011 04:55 GMT
#1620
I posted my analysis as you posted yours bumatlarge didn't even realize you had posted
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 02 2011 05:14 GMT
#1627
Well if this were a normal flip game I would advocate lynching the DT and then figuring it out from there, but since it isn't we don't have too much of a choice, I really respect you Kavdragon and I'm almost certain you are town, but as I see it the only way to verify the DT one way or another is to lynch lunar destiny or have a second DT if there is any check on the first one.

I'm going to throw this out there, since this a clue based analysis game, its quite possible that there are no dts much like in the minimafia game, as of right now I am not convinced that Lunar is the SK but it seems to me like the mafia would be running a very real risk by making a DT claim, especially if Beneather is mafia.

another way to check if the DT is telling the truth is to hang Beneather and take a census of the mafia if Beneather flips not mafia then the DT was being honest, else he too is mafia. However is Lunar worth more than a bodyguard? At this point we have some hard choices to make, and as always I suggest we take a good look at peoples behavior and the clues to figure stuff out
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 02 2011 05:18 GMT
#1628
EBWOP, we could also hang the DT and then take census, if we got a mafia then we know Lunar is probably clean, and Beneather is scum
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 02 2011 05:28 GMT
#1631
Wait where the hell are you getting that Kav is scum? I don't see any indication of this, he is just protecting what he perceives to be a town asset from what could very well be a fake DT claim, so Imp where are you getting that Kav is scum?
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 02 2011 05:33 GMT
#1633
Another really serious possibility occurred to me, its possible that LD is a SK and bumatlarge is mafia, if mafia saw LD as enough of a threat to try to hit twice and concluded that he is bullet proof they could know this and be using this information to gain town trust. I'm throwing that out there just because it could be true. This also means that hanging the DT and having him flip mafia is inconclusive (Well if proves that Beneather is mafia, but it dosn't necessarily clear LD), and likewise hanging LD and having him flip SK dosn't guarantee that bumatlarge is blue.

This is just something to keep in mind as we make choices.
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 02 2011 05:37 GMT
#1634
On February 02 2011 14:33 Impervious wrote:
Think about it - look at how people have been voting, look at how the clues have been leading us in the wrong direction.....

Does it really make any sense that we haven't had a single fucking Mafia kill yet?

There's something fishy about vig and SK hits not hitting a mafia at all (especially since any decent SK would be thinking that the mafia is winning, and therefore try to kill scum instead, and the clue last night really signals that a vig made a hit).

The only way that could make any sense (without some extreme luck by the mafia) was if the mayor was lying to us. And if he was, it would be very, very easy to turn us against the wrong people.....


I agree that a scummy mayor would screw us over big time and that its possible that Kav is scum, however it seems to me that if he is we have no way of reaching a conclusion either way, if he is mafia then we are essentially done as we have no way of verifying kills and mafia can just steer us however they wish. Since census is such a brutally essential part of our arsenal I need really good evidence against the Mayor before I even consider hanging him.
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 02 2011 05:38 GMT
#1635
Anyway I'm off to bed, I expect 3-5 new pages of material to read in the morning, don't disappoint me.
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 02 2011 18:42 GMT
#1702
Just a quick pointer as to why I don't think Kav can be Mafia, if he were mafia it would be in his best interest to tell us that we had indeed gotten a hit on mafia after the second or third day, building our confidence in his skill as a clue analizer/scum hunter this would have solidified his role. The fact that this hasn't happened makes me think he really is the mayor and we just suck at catching mafia.
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 02 2011 18:45 GMT
#1703
@BrownBear alternatively we could lynch the DT and then check the number of mafia, but thats a case of weighing weather LD is worth more to the town than a DT who may not survive the night is.
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 02 2011 20:04 GMT
#1706
@CubEdln I was just pointing out that Kav seemed to think LD was a really valuable asset to the town, and was wondering if he was so good that he might be worth a DT, you obviously don't think so, and I'm tempted to agree, I also a agree that LD is most likely a SK, however if he is it dosn't really resolve weather bum is blue or not, and I think that we need to know weather he is or not, as if he is red then we know two reds and can probably lower their KP by 1, and if he isn't we need to start using him to hunt reds.

I'll propose one thing, although I don't think that its a great idea, we could hang Beneather (a BG) and find if he is red or green, if he is red then our DT is a phoney, otherwise we have a real DT we can use. At this point I don't know what the value of a BG is compared to a DT.

However all else aside unless LD agrees to help town I agree we should hang him, just because its really likely he is the SK
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 02 2011 20:31 GMT
#1708
I disagree with you I think more KP in the hands of the town are always a good thing (that's why we like having vigis),(this assumes town has good analysis, which given our track record, is a poor assumption) although your point about giving us more time is very valid. I think that just going to be a point of disagreement between us, for now I'll agree that killing LD is the best course of action, its not like he is going to flip for us anyway, we might as well hang the almost certain SK.

We should still discuss what we are going to do about bum, and how to check his claim.
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 02 2011 20:53 GMT
#1710
Alright, I agree to your logic, your math magic has persuaded me

Seriously though I see your point, and while I dont fully agree with it, I'll follow it as its sound reasoning.

I'll go vote now
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
February 02 2011 22:14 GMT
#1712
Post people! even if we've reached some sort of agreement (which I'm not sure if everyone agrees with), it dosn't mean people should stop posting. We haven't really looked at the clues for this day in any detail yet, for example there is another dog reference in the post. What do you people think?
(sorry I'm in a *really* dull lecture and I need posts here for me to read and comment on)
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