EPTTL Mafia XXXV
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On December 23 2010 14:50 Incognito wrote: Wait what I'm cohosting this???!?!?!??!?! Are you trying to imply something here mr. smurfy smurf?  If you don't want to I volunteered to step in >_> | ||
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GOGOGO | ||
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On December 28 2010 00:40 LSB wrote: @LunarDestiny What do you think we should do about inactives then? Can you read his post? Though personally I think one of the best ways to root out mafia is individual pressure. It will become increasingly obvious that the person is town based on how they defend themselves and whoever else supports them. If a person stays afk then that is a huge issue but generally a little pressure will generate a defense by one or more people that we can then analyze. | ||
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On December 28 2010 00:56 LSB wrote: It doesn't do anything about inactives. It just says we make a list of inactives and see what happens. We've done this practically every single game. Does it work? Not really. LunarDestiny, can you elaborate a bit more then? I thought it said, "we make a list of inactives and then vote on one of them." Yes, this is virtually identical to what we've done in previous games, and you're right that it doesn't work very well. I don't think further elaboration on his part will really help though, as I don't think any variant or extension on the aforementioned plan is what we need to win. | ||
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On December 28 2010 03:43 LunarDestiny wrote: I don't like the idea of pressuring a certain person to speak up one at a time. If the mafia choose to pressure a townie and that townie is afk, then we are falling into mafia's trap. Looking at the voting thread, there are 3 people that were voted. Mr.Wiggies quickly responded after pandain voted on him. Pandain also respond after the mass vote on him. But Jackal had yet to respond after being voted by pandain. Accusing someone encourages participation from that that person. But what if that person is afk? He won't be able to respond. Also, IF pandain is mafia, then town will be sidetracked. Other inactive mafia will go under the radar. We should consider all inactive. When day1 is half way over, we should come up with a list of people who are inactive/all spam/suspected and discuss who to lynch. Maybe then, those people on list will speak up and defend themselves. I am saying that we should not target inactive (afk/spam/suspect) at a time for day 1 lynch. At some point on day1, we should come up with a list of possible lynch and that will encourage those people on the list to speak up. Again all of the above is for day 1's lynch when town have almost no information. I want to put pressure on all inactives to speak up and maybe contribution. It doesn't really matter that the person is afk; that's why the day cycles are so long. What we especially have to watch out for is if everyone is *too complacent* in letting the target die. If there isn't adequate discussion that's been generated then we KNOW we haven't picked someone important. With that said I think I'd like to suggest something I was thinking of in my last game: every person take a look at the posts of the person below you on the page 1 list and post an analysis of said person on Day 3. That should give us enough time to accumulate a good amount of analysis. If said person is up for the chopping block then post what you have sooner than later. I think player death shouldn't cause too many problems with this plan and it should help newer players participate. | ||
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On December 28 2010 05:34 LunarDestiny wrote: Because if we do something like "xxxx you have not been contributing and that makes you look mafia, please contribute." We get contribution like Mr.Wiggle which is good. But if the mafia is the one pointing fingers, then other mafia will be left alone. Also, we are targeting a smaller group of people compared to having a list of people. I also like to say that I am not discouraging pointing fingers at non-inactive. Having debates between active players especially useful since it is the best way to find mafia because a mafia dt checks on these people are less convincing than other mafia games. Everyone has to point fingers. Even mafia point fingers at their own for weak posting or inactivity, but they will rarely push for a lynch. It should be our job as town to make sure that all of the necessary people are brought into the spotlight and to lynch those we find lacking. | ||
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On December 28 2010 22:42 ShoCkeyy wrote: Ok, what im wondering is, why would you go off posting who's blue, if he is or isn't. You're just making it easier for mafia to pick and choose on who to kill. Explain as to why you did this? If he is a blue I want to know why you did an analysis on him if he's really trying to help the town and hasn't posted scummy at all. I have my FoS on you. WOW way to not read the post, since his COMMENTS blue. This is exactly the kind of stupid crap that gets you killed. Comments on Node's analysis of LunarDestiny: undecided is not an acceptable conclusion. Quite frankly I don't understand why you would post an analysis if you're just going to waffle around the steps to action; at least lay an FoS or something. I honestly don't think there's any benefit to doing analysis this early in the game from mafia to mafia teammate at this point in time, but leaving it so ambiguous doesn't really present a solid case. As for LD himself, I find myself disagreeing with a lot of his posts thus far, so I'll follow the logical conclusion of the analysis and FoS LunarDestiny. | ||
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I'm looking at the Day 1 vote lists and trying to figure out how the Pandain vote dissipated so quickly (presumably sidetracked by the LSB/annul debate). My original qualms with Pandain lie entirely with his initial post as he ENTIRELY neglects the role of the framer in his advice (thus making it terrible advice for ANY townie to follow), so I'll have to go back and see what he's posted thus far makes up for that. | ||
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On December 29 2010 21:14 GeorgeClooney wrote: I'm properly going to vote Paindrain when day begins, cause he won't make up his mind. I thought lynching ESB was a retarded move, he would have roleclaimed after, and for god sakes he was a Vet. He could of established a town circle, nor was he scummy after the other guy (forgot his name) decided to bit his ass and not let go. Lets hope its not another blue lol. By the way, I want to start a town circle. Ofcourse i'm not going to lead this, but I ain't mafia, and I want to win a game lol. Straight forward. Anyone else for a town circle? With framers and the GF and false DT checks I don't even know why you would suggest this at this point in time. FoS on you. | ||
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Joining in! | ||
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What I feel like this game has been lacking thus far is any consideration of vote lists. The LSB vote has had an obvious instigator in Annul, but what about the rest? I've picked out from the rest of the LSB list and added comments. Vote list:+ Show Spoiler + annul TheMango orgolove DoctorHelvetica DEAD Meapak_Ziphh Brocket Barundar LunarDestiny bumatlarge DEAD Pandain TheMango - There isn't a lot of meta here, and I'd like to see him post a bit more before making a call on him. I don't think he's some sort of forum mafia scum-hunting god holding out on us, though, since playing by post and playing by person are vastly different in the kinds of cues and scumtells you can pick up on. Meapak_Ziphh - There are some early posts that reflect ambiguous indecision in the early game; while this isn't necessarily a scumtell by itself, I think a lot of his latter posts are weak, especially in the post where he defends himself against Node's analysis - in that he sidesteps the analysis entirely. Lol dodge much? As for his spreadsheet... it doesn't mean anything. I'm not sure if I'd count this as a valuable contribution, especially since it isn't backed up with analysis. I'm leaning scum on him. LunarDestiny - I still have some misgivings about LD, though after IRC I'm not as suspicious. I sincerely disagreed with a lot of his opinions and for some time I thought he might have been scum, but some IRC/PM discussion has made me think otherwise for now. I'll look at the people from the Brocket list in a few hours... | ||
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On January 03 2011 22:53 Brocket wrote: You mean the barundar that suspected RoL and paindain who was himself suspected of being mafia? Despite your good intentions I will not join your circle. I'm pretty meh at the moment, we have all these role calls which I've never seen before. =/ I guess it's a good thing, but it gives advantages to both towns and mafia. The mafia really need all the help they can get and I'm not keen on throwing them a bone. @Insanious: right... Kinda like that time LSB got the mewtwo (serial killer) to kill me 'just because I didn't agree with him'. Except it's exactly the same. De ja vu except I like LSB more than you because you make no effort analysing me. FoS on you. You mean me? I should've just gone with my gut instinct that game instead of listening to retarded people like LSB. Time to trust my gut instinct again. I get a pretty good read off of Barundar for town; the point he made about the timing of RoL's analysis just turned out to be RoL being semi-afk. That was bad play on RoL's part, but I think there's some merit in what he had to say with regard to looking at lurkers. Thus I'm going to turn my attention to GeorgeClooney's most recent post: On January 03 2011 11:59 GeorgeClooney wrote: I'm a big fat green, like I have been in the last game of mafia. I agree with RoL that the current mafia are most likely lurkers, BUT I AM NOT ONE OF THEM LOL. This guy spams like Bill Murray and posts equally as meaningless content. I don't think it makes any sense for Barundar to have pushed for RoL and then had him killed during the night. I am still pretty suspicious of Meapak and TheMango, especially since Mango's voting both Barundar and Meapak. | ||
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On January 05 2011 03:00 tree.hugger wrote: Mafia has nothing to lose at this point apparently. Mepak and Darth tonight, and GC can be our crutch. I think GC is a better candidate than Darth right now, actually. Any thoughts on switching? | ||
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With that said, we don't really need too much more to win at this point. Since OpZ is confirmed all he really needs are the claims of the DTs and the medics to coordinate protection while the town systematically hunts scum. Since town has a pretty big advantage at this point (3 days to lylo; no medic/DT deaths AND a confirmed member to form town circle) there's no need to rush things, just make sure that the important people stay alive. There is no reason to vote double lynch. I've taken a look at the vote lists and I think we need to revisit the DTA vote tomorrow if we don't do it today. For one he's disappeared again after posting some idle stuff. For another, his alignment should shed into light of whether or not he was saved when the wagon shifted from him to GC. It should give us more info about the people directly on the vote - i.e. Soulfire/tree.hugger/zergling; and then on the GC vote - Mango/Wiggles. I don't think enough has been made of the Day 2 votes either, as Darth was one of the few that remained on orgolove. | ||
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On January 08 2011 06:26 orgolove wrote: ... As I said repeatedly, it is less than 12 hours to go, and yet we have not had a single counter bandwagon or a post that defended Seraph. I highly doubt he's red. In their current state, losing even one red would be critical - reds would definitely have jumped to defend him. And yet you guys just follow pandain's lead. How many more do we have to kill before you ignore his posts. -_- My god. I can just see us loinsg the game even after getting the godfather in the second day. I'm not sure I agree that losing one red is critical for them at this point. Going from 4->3 mafia doesn't make a difference in their KP. What I *would* expect if he were red though is for Seraph to pull some sort of crazy stunt to try and live... or maybe he thinks he can shrug it off since there's no defense at all and people will vote elsewhere. I mean, it's possible that you could be mafia doing some sort of soft defend. There's too much WIFOM at this point and an overabundance of targets. Let's take things slow and systematic. | ||
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Just... wow. I'm starting to think that with the number of vets we had there are very few medics in this setup... | ||
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On January 10 2011 14:20 orgolove wrote: + Show Spoiler + People who voted for Annul, in order: 1. RebirthOfLegend (switched from Insanious) 2. Meapak_Ziphh (switched from Seraph) 3. Barundar 4. Pandain At this point, Meapak changed his vote from annul to seraph 5. d3_crescentia (switched from orgolove) 6. lunardestiny 7. Mr.Wiggles (switched from orgolove) At this point, voting was ending in 3.5 hours, and there were still more votes for me over annul. 8. Mr.Zergling (switched from pandain to mrwiggles to node) 9. Meapak_Ziphh (again) 10. ilovejonn (switched from voting for himself) 11. node (switched from orgolove) voting was ending in 1.5 hours. 12. why (switched from seraph) Considering how close this vote was, we can get a lot of information about who's red and who's not. Especially since node was the godfather - reds would be foolish to have voted from him from the very beginning. Looking at it, first, I think Barundar and Pandain are safely town. I think we should look at the people who switched their votes during the last second, namely Mr.Zergling and ilovejonn. I especially consider Mr.Zergling to be suspicious, given how he switched his votes three times during the course of the day, and only switched to node at the very last second. ... another townie can look at their other voting behaviors and find more evidence. But my vote is on Mr.Zergling. This is one of the things that keep Pandain as town in my mind - why would he orchestrate a successful massive townie wagon on his own GF? That just seems illogical and unlikely. There's also the votes that stayed on you on Day 2 - Jackal, DTA. Of these I'm still thinking of DTA, who hasn't posted much if at all recently after dodging a lynch on Day 3. Then there's Day 3 votes on GeorgeClooney, which notably have Soulfire, and Jackal to a lesser extent of suspicion at the end of the train. Here's what I think of the Day 1 votes: On December 29 2010 11:45 flamewheel wrote: Vote Count for Day 1 Votes for ShOckeyy (1) ShoCkeyy Votes for Pandain (1) tree.hugger Votes for LSB (12) annul TheMango orgolove DoctorHelvetica Meapak_Ziphh Brocket Barundar LunarDestiny bumatlarge Pandain Soulfire Mr. Wiggles Votes for seRapH (1) RebirthOfLeGenD Votes for annul (3) seRapH Node deconduo Votes for why (1) Ryuu314 Votes for ~OpZ~ (1) ilovejonn Votes for GeorgeClooney (1) GeorgeClooney Votes for d3_crescentia (1) d3_crescentia Votes for Tevo (1) Tevo Votes for RebirthOfLeGenD (1) ~OpZ~ Votes for Brocket (6) Insanious LSB why Jackal58 Mr.Zergling GGQ If there is a mistake please let me know. Voting ends in 15 minutes, and any votes tallied after the 12:00 KST timestamp will not be accepted. Considering the large amount of votes on LSB on Day 1, there is likely 1 more mafia on that list. If it's Soulfire, then great. If not, then we have TheMango/Jackal/orgolove to look at. There might be one on the Brocket list as well for balance, but considering one of annul's earlier comments I think we'd have better luck looking at the lurkers/single voters - Ryuu/DTA, Shockeyy and ilovejonn. Again I'm going to push for DTA today, since his death at the very least should give us more of an idea on Soulfire/Mr. Zergling/Jackal. | ||
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At this point in time I'm fairly certain that there are no town investigation roles. I've been spending a bit of time looking back at the annul lynch, and I think it's fair to say that there's no way Pandain is red. I simply don't understand why he would push for the annul lynch so hard unless there was some deep mind-fuckery going on here - and I don't think Pandain is capable of that kind of subtlety. RoL died and we went on to Day 3. We all pored over his list of suspicious but we never thought too deeply into why RoL was shot in the first place. After looking at some of his posts, I think this is why the mafia hit him. On January 03 2011 03:52 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: The one thing I will say now is look at how Annul posted towards his death. The guy is pissed, especially over activity. On top of that he was the godfather which made no sense at all. Judging by his anger and him being godfather, I would say chances are most of his mafia comrades are lurkers, which the exception of maybe 1-2 posting a little more. One of the most glaring errors in your argument is this. If I am mafia, and annul was mafia. Then why am I not the godfather if I am so good? On January 03 2011 03:59 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Oh and DT's tonight. All I want you to do is CHECK LURKERS. I believe most of mafia team (probably 2-3 of them) are in there and we can't analyze lurkers. It would be stupid for the mafia to try to frame one, and odds are even if they try you won't overlap. As for the list of lurkers, here is what I have: 7. Mr.Zergling 8. why 9. Jackal58 15. ShoCkeyy 19. Orgolove 24. d3_crescentia 27. Soulfire 30. ~OpZ~ Thats 11 people. Now since the Godfather is dead, any returns that are BLUE, or any returns you have gotten on people that are blue are 100%. In fact, anyone who has been returned town is guaranteed innocent right now. Now consider it thusly: Mafia have been shooting all game in the hopes of hitting a blue, but more so just looking to hit the more active players. The large majority of this list is still alive. We should have been looking at this list from the get-go. I'm kind of surprised TheMango isn't on this list as well, but I haven't paid much attention to him other than a little question mark in my notes, so maybe he's town. Quite possible considering I haven't really been putting that much time in this game. Since we're approaching lylo now, it's probably time for me to change that. | ||
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We need to reconsider the people that haven't really been put under pressure at this point - Zergling, why, Jackal. We ALSO need to look at the vote list before Pandain started asking us to change our votes: + Show Spoiler + On January 14 2011 05:04 flamewheel wrote: Vote Tally for Day 6 Double Lynch Soulfire (4): Mr.Zergling, Mr.Zergling (2): why, TheMango (4): Mr.Zergling, Pandain (4): Jackal58, Jackal58 (1): TheMango d3_crescentia (1): ilovejonn (1): why orgolove (1): d3_crescentia needs to post and make his two votes. You have 6 hours and 56 minutes. Why should both Jackal/Zergling push for Mango today if we know that a green Pandain were responsible for saving Mango? There's no reason for mafia Jackal to have switched to ilovejonn yesterday either, since it wouldn't have mattered which person got lynched yesterday unless he was saving his teammate - but again, that was Pandain's call, not Jackal's call. And if Mango were red then would one of his teammates really vote for him at this point in time? I think the most likely mafia team right now is Zergling/why. The mafia might just be hoping that the target painted on Mango after "dodging" a lynch yesterday might be strong enough for other apathetic townies to follow - but at this point we can't be apathetic. I'm voting Zergling. | ||
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On January 17 2011 12:44 annul wrote: the voting is locked right? I imagine so. Wish the post would come up so we can launch into discussion. | ||
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On January 17 2011 12:48 Jackal58 wrote: Well poop. I kind of feel the same way. Still, I'm gonna save my thoughts until after the official end of game post. | ||
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On January 17 2011 12:57 Mr.Zergling wrote: Lying as town only hurts the town.... I'm looking at you pandain I mean, it was kind of obvious that he wasn't the DT. I don't really think any DT would have claimed the way he did (claiming checked DrH Night 1 immediately felt suspicious to me) but tbh we didn't have many blue reads; those we thought were blue we killed anyway. Pandain's IRC use during Day 2 was pretty powerful against mafia, but RoL's analysis in the following night was MUCH scarier as mafia. It's why we killed him then. Overall I don't actually feel that good about this game, because I just kept thinking of suspicious activity I'd notice as a townie and feel at a loss for words when it came to contributing in most mafia-favored way possible. Why's flipflop on Day 2 was HUGE, was surprised no one called him on that until late. With that kind of discussion paralysis going on in my head, plus the fact that we had only 5 mafia this game (KP formula was (Mafia + 1)/2 rounded up) I had a lot of trouble playing actively after we lost annul/tevo and felt that it was better just to lurk and ignore when people called me out. I mean, I guess we won but that kind of play isn't very fun overall. The other thing that hurt mafia the most during this game was lack of communication/inactivity. I didn't really have a good idea of how we were coordinating ourselves until the town lynched annul, and only then did why/brocket/me get in contact with each other to try and see how to continue the game. I think if we'd talked more frequently from the beginning we wouldn't have had as much trouble with inactivity, at least on the mafia side. | ||
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On January 17 2011 13:09 annul wrote: also, this little IRC tribal council that got my torch snuffed occurred when i was AFK and i didnt even have a chance to get in on it and break it up  Sorry for the bus - I just figured with 5+ people already convinced by Pandain I thought I might as well look like one of the first. I'm actually not sure what the best response would have been in that situation, but at least orgolove thought I was innocent. | ||
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On January 17 2011 13:12 flamewheel wrote: Whoops my bad. I was too busy playing DotA and after going on a few beyond godlike streaks [/brag] I forgot to come back here. Anyway this game disappointed me. I'm sorry to the people who tried, but mostly it was played in a very inactive fashion. why (RB), Brocket (Framer), and d3_crescentia, annul (GF), and Tevo were Mafia. As we already know, LSB, RebirthOfLeGenD, and Insanious were Veterans. ~OpZ~ was our Mafia Vigilante. Everybody else was a townie. So what was the purpose of this game? I'm pretty disappointed to - it would've been nicer to get overwhelmingly crushed by analysis instead of picking off the most active townies and letting the game stagnate through the rest. I mean, a win is a win, but I feel kind of dumb for winning this way. I feel that you must've been going for some kind of aesop's fable lesson where we should learn to do post analysis instead of counting votes, relying on non-existent blues and judging people purely on amount of "contribution." Unfortunately, well... I didn't really see much of that at all. | ||
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On January 17 2011 13:16 Pandain wrote: I actually feel at least somewhat more confident. I was suspicious of D3 because of his "contributing without really contributing", yet laid back on him because he was actually at least somewhat contributing whilst others weren't. So I have a question to post to everyone: Who is more suspicious: 1.Those who don't contribute. 2.Those who try to contribute but are just really really bad at it. 3.Those who try to contribute but it doesn't really say much. Cause all 3 look suspicious to me. Obviously now in retrospective it seems #3 is the obvious choice, but at the time, was there anything distinguishing why/d3 from the others? Especially why, I thought he was surely pro town. Thanks Coag. It's nice to know you always got my back. Why's Day 2 post/Seraph vote after all of the discussion on orgolove/annul was pretty scummy imo, as he sidestepped the entire discussion with only a "I want to see more proof" THAT late into the day when there was a lot of discussion. Then after the annul vote is all but decided he comes in with another post saying "well I guess I'll vote annul with you guys." I mean, I'd think that kind of scumslip goes away with inexperience, but those two posts made me facepalm pretty hard when I read them. Another good tell on why was just today - I virtually call him out for being scum and he doesn't say anything about it. He just goes "oh I'm going to vote Mr. Zergling" and avoids addressing my accusation. This should definitely be a tell that something's weird. As for me - I didn't really post much or contribute. I did feel like my early vote on annul would've been enough to clear me from suspicion for a little bit, but as I said I wasn't really sure how to handle coming back from losing 2 mafia members. I think I did make a half-assed attempt at giving the town a plan - the best approach was systematically rooting through lurkers/inactives through post analysis - but I never took the lead on this. | ||
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Unfortunately I'm pretty sure that if I had been town I would've called myself out for that kind of scummy play, so I'm really unsure as to how to deal with this in future games. What's the best approach in these situations? | ||
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