TL Mafia XXXV

On December 28 2010 11:39 Mr.Zergling wrote:
My vote has gone to LSB, as his responses to annul's analysis have been weak. However, from HP mafia, LSB seems to always act somewhat scummy (which is why he got lynched last game). Also deconduo's analysis gives some convincing reasons to lynch LSB (for instance: that recommending abstaining from voting is not a pro-town suggestion (also abstaining is against the rules))

Although, no day 1 lynch is ever clear, more of a shot in the dark than anything

(((I love parenthesis)))

On December 29 2010 12:10 Mr.Zergling wrote:




mmm This does have me suspicious of Paindain, but would a mafia really be that overt and outspoken about lynching a blue, or would they try and lay low so they are not associated with the impending mess when the target flips blue? Now though, we can look at all previous analysis in a new light

On December 11 2010 12:14 Mr.Zergling wrote:
I think LSB is making himself suspicious by proposing a 1st kill voting style that can be easily manipulated

On December 12 2010 15:19 Mr.Zergling wrote:


Why does it matter when meapak says he's gonna have votes on first lynch?

On December 14 2010 10:36 Mr.Zergling wrote:


1)Ummm...Breadcrumb? fill a noob in please


2) I think there was more than one town-hit that went down as Beneather was being considered as suspected scum by some players, and the mafia wouldn't really want to kill a suspected scum as a suspected scum can draw attention away from real scum

I think randoms don't really have that much of an advantage because their race is not shown. Whatever advantage that may give is negated by them probably not being as good with the race they get as someone who mains one race.

Edit:


lol beat me to it.

On December 10 2010 09:56 Mr.Zergling wrote:
Considering whats been said already, if you have early game ff issues, I find running a small group of zerglings and/or banelings close to their army to make them panic and throw down a lot of ff is fairly effective, repeat until there is no more sentry energy left

On December 29 2010 13:16 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
i believe mr zergling is mafia, in fact i have since his very first few hosts

he would be a good dt check as well as seraph and insanious

ill reanalyse things when i get home. also why can noone spell "pandain"

On December 30 2010 07:19 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
We don't need to be discussing who to lynch until tomorrow. I think silence is the best policy during the night, don't give the mafia information with which they can better their hit list with.

That being said I agree with a lot of Pandain's suspects. Mr.Zergling is probably mafia. I wouldn't be surprised if Mr.Wiggles was either.

On December 12 2010 01:44 Mr.Zergling wrote:


I've only posted once, because I right now feel there is nothing to add to this discussion.

On December 27 2010 12:43 Mr.Zergling wrote:
we should lynch inactives, if only to prevent the "paindain" disaster like what happened in HP mafia were we lynched a townie and one vote could have changed it

On December 31 2010 11:44 Mr.Zergling wrote:
I think a double lynch is a bad idea at this point, as we only have two of them for the whole game, and still don't have a clear first lynch target, much less second. I think annul is being a bit hasty in voting for double lynch

On December 31 2010 05:56 Barundar wrote:
Anyone else with thoughts on option for double lynch? I personally think it's too early yet, atleast untill we get a better idea of targets for today.

... and annul votes without providing a reason.

On December 29 2010 15:43 Mr.Zergling wrote:
I am interested in why Pandain went from defending LSB (quite vehemently) to pushing strongly to lynch LSB, I suppose the role claim (which was never really clear) could have affected his view of LSB.

Two scenarios:

Pandain is blue: The unclear roleclaim threw him off and he decided that even though LSB had said he would prove his blueness, Pandain just wanted info (stated)

-or-


Pandain is red: He saw the bandwagon shifting to his possible scumbuddy Brocket, and decided that it wouldn't be too suspicious if he shifted the bandwagon back on to LSB by touting an "info lynch". Also making himself more trustworthy by saying that everyone who voted LSB should be under suspicion (which they should)

On December 30 2010 13:02 Mr.Zergling wrote:
Also added to my response a couple posts up:

If you do have strong opinions on day 1 without an obvious scumslip, thats just an awful playstyle, especially if you change strong opinions every couple hours

On December 29 2010 09:24 Mr.Zergling wrote:



This is a good enough reason for me to change my vote to brocket. Also, on my lurking, I often don't feel the need to post if I fell I do not have anything to contribute to analysis. This is especially compounded by this being the first day.

On December 30 2010 12:59 Mr.Zergling wrote:


^^This, and what I presented earlier

On December 29 2010 09:24 Mr.Zergling wrote:



This is a good enough reason for me to change my vote to brocket. Also, on my lurking, I often don't feel the need to post if I fell I do not have anything to contribute to analysis. This is especially compounded by this being the first day.

On December 29 2010 10:27 Mr.Zergling wrote:


I fail at 12/24hr conversion.........my bad

Also PM from paindain:

why are you voting brockett
tell me here in your own words
why

On December 31 2010 05:08 Mr.Zergling wrote:


I thought his last 18min switch to LSB was strange, but thats been noted.
I think I am changing to Orgo after reading GGQ's analysis, but I think Ill give him time to respond before i change my vote again

Insanious, annul, Mepeak arguing just to throw us off? Sounds like a plausible way for reds to be able to deny association if someone gets lynched and flips red. This is distracting us from real scumhunting and making people feel like they need to jump on one bandwagon, thus fracturing the Town, and allowing the mafia to more or less control our lynch

On December 31 2010 15:26 Mr.Zergling wrote:


Hey, if the trivia is random, then why include it? Non-Relevant trivia has no place in scumhunting, unless you are trying to FoS someone in a subtle manner. The fact is this "Non-Relevant Trivia" could cause some players to be suspicous in other player's minds. This is an FoS. Why do this when it makes you look incredibly scummy?

On December 29 2010 12:27 Mr.Zergling wrote:


I was trying to say something more along the lines of:

Some people are suspicious of paindain (myself included), but we cannot tell if he is scum based on what we think scum would do.

This all sounds better in my head.

On December 28 2010 04:35 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:

As an addendum to the first part of this post. I don't think DrH hit it just right. Don't waste your time checking "big name" players. Since a GF is chosen you will get back a blue/green role on them pretty much no matter what. The way I play a detective role can be seen slightly in HP mafia. There were people I thought very likely to be scum, but there were two players I couldn't decide on, but was leaning towards mafia or jackass. OpZ and Orgolove. Night 1 I decided to Orgolove, but either check would of been adequate for my criteria. Usually a host RNG's the player list and makes mild adjustments for balance. The odds of a more recognized/good player getting into the mafia is increased and therefore they are likely to be the godfather. The only game where I would say the "veteran" player IMO wasn't GF was in Salem. They chose SouthRawrea over Radfield, but that could of been because of PM's and knowing where the check was going, or because radfield knew he was going to be inactive.

So when you are a DT check someone who is playing aggressively/scummy and someone who you can't quite decide on their alignment. With a framer the odds are increased that you will get a bad check on a "veteran" player because they will either be godfather or framed. On that note though, the only real check we can use is a medic. If a medic protects someone and the day post is mafia KP-1 they can be almost 100% sure they protected someone good, especially if they are a "veteran" player.

Anyway, I don't like making it seem like the DT role is so important which this seems like, I in fact view DT as a handicap that clouds a persons judgment. I would rather trust my behavioral analysis over DT checks any day of the week. I urge the utmost caution in using DT checks in this game, because I don't feel like having SouthRawrea 2.0 after I die and everyone becomes too stupid to realize who the leak was.

Anyway, I got work in a little bit I will probably be back around 10ish.

On December 28 2010 05:12 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
I got my defense wrong! I have a strange idea. I think both annul and LSB might be mafia, this little tiff is exactly what annul/KJ did in ExMiMa although this is a little different. I know LSB is a better player than to attack his attacker AS mafia, its kind of an odd tell. My first thought was that he is probably town and just thought the analysis was scummy. But the analysis seems fine to me. The arguments almost feel a little forced too if you read through it. This is definitely something to keep in mind.

On December 29 2010 05:26 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Alright so I finished catching up. I am really unsure about this whole LSB/Annul thing. But one thing I am sure about is that we CANT risk losing ANY blue role. We have no chance as winning as a town if we are throwing blues away day 1. The reason we aren't all green is because we REQUIRE blues to win. Judging by his initial claim LSB is a vigi but tried changing what he said because he didn't want to be so obvious with his claim but it doesn't matter.

With a vigilante claim the mafia has a real incentive to kill him tonight to get rid of mafia KP, so we will know whether or not he is mafia in 2 days. There is NO reason to kill him now, since we can hold him off as a "sure thing" day 3 if he hasn't killed someone by then or is not dead.

Now for RoL's badass analysis of the game, raping Red's day 1.

Seraph


A nothing post, just the pregame jovial attitude usually shown by mafia.


One of my favorite little tells that a lot of people give off is format speculation early on, he is one of the first to discuss it. Seraph and LD. Although a LOT of people have done it in this game because their was a new role I think we can view this as an additional circumstance to his "mafia" behavior since a lot of people exemplify this strait.


At this point he gets on the"lets lynch inactives" train and trying to figure out how to define inactives. First off I am going to say this right now. Fuck lynching inactives. It is such a stupid plan most of the time, lynching an inactive does two VERY anti town things. One it provides ZERO information because generally there is no vote split on inactives its usually a unanimous decision among the town, and on top of that since there is NO information to decide on who we are going to lynch because they are inactive the mafia have a huge influence over just which inactive guy we decide to kill.

In summary lynching inactives makes Day 1 a day we get NO information and on top of that the lynch is more readily swayed by the mafia, yielding our daily KP to them. It is just stupid. What annul did is exactly what I would do. Just start throwing shit and see who comes out of the wood work. Ideally though you aim to target someone who you believe is red. But either way the important thing is we are getting information.




We are going to see a recurring trend with Seraph, He doesn't really ever stop talking about inactives and mod kills at all.



Now one big thing to notice here, he advises against using KP and uses a TERRIBLE argument. This is a giant redflag to me. Why the hell would there be a better chance of hitting a blue then a red with a vigi hit? If we hold off our vigi hits there is a better chance the mafia will kill the vigi and we lose that KP too. That's roughly equivalent to telling mad hatters not to place bombs until night 3 because chances are they will just bomb a blue. It just chances us wasting our KP that we shouldn't be. On top of that if a vigi is doing ANY amount of behavioral analysis then they should be able to hit a god damn red by night 2 if they choose to, MAYBE hold it off until night 3. I generally would not recommend holding off your hit because it increases the chance of the town losing it.

And on top of that Seraph says we have more important things to discuss then vigi's, like the day 1 lynch. Alright, I can agree with that but seriously what the fuck is there to talk about if you are lynching an inactive? Exactly, nothing. Its just basically RNG whichever person not posting the mafia approves of and unanimously killing them.


Alright let me get this strait. By your agenda we should be lynching inactives and searching for them but we need to wait for people to check in day 1...? Pretty much self explanatory. So far we have seen a good amount of anti town posting from Seraph on top of a bit of spammyness.


This is one of the posts I found really interesting. The pandain wagon did make no sense and Seraph says what I think he is trying to do. We can just label it wifom. At the same time he discredits Annul saying his argument is forced

Then explains what forced means! But seriously, how is Annul's analysis forced? I read it, it felt pretty natural to me. Annul remains dedicated and keeps going for his lynch of LSB and LSB OMGUS him back which is a really shitty way to play and incredibly anti town. The thing is I also believe that could just be a blue tell from LSB believing his role to be important for town victory.

The last thing he does is FOS on Meapak but not saying ANYTHING about why. At least give some reason.



Seraph then stresses that we go back to lynching inactives while clearing up such a trivial issue between insane/haunted mafia.

The running trend with Seraph is anti town play, just focusing on lynching an inactive and really not committing at ALL on the annul/LSB situation. This could be because he doesn't want to be associated with supporting a bad lynch of either of them, or not wanting to side at risk of being exposed when his ally gets lynched.

With that being said, I strongly believe Seraph is mafia and we should lynch to kill him and hold off on the LSB/Annul situation because of how important blue roles are to a town victory. On top of that if/when LSB fails to prove his claim we get another free mafia kill that we can make a vigi use. LSB is claiming to be able to PROVE his alliance by night 2 and if he can't then well I am sure we can do something about that can't we? We just need to stay focused and get him killed then and not get distracted by other "better" targets.

On December 29 2010 05:59 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:

False logic. There is a VERY good reason that LSB is not getting defended if he is mafia. Look at ExMiMa. I accused Aidnai HARD day 1 and was pushing him relentlessly waiting for other mafia to show themselves by trying to defend him. KJ/Annul kept their cool until I got replaced then slowly diverted the lynch. It is WAY too risky to try to launch a defensive or diversion campaign of a mafia on day 1, especially if you fail.

On December 29 2010 06:03 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
@Opz

24 hours of conversation can change an opinion. The reason I felt their tiff was forced was because I thought LSB would be too experienced to respond in such an aggressive manner. I may have been wrong.

On December 29 2010 06:05 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:

As I explained a post above, I don't believe its feasible for the mafia to try to protect one of their own from such a volatile situation. It can only reveal themselves if they do it directly and it fails. Its why anyone focusing on lynching inactives or avoiding the conflict between annul/LSB should be heavily scrutinized.

On December 29 2010 06:48 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
night 2 would not change from day 2 btw. No more actions can be done between those times, unless you mean AFTER night 2. At which point you COULD be a vigi, but if you really mean the start of night 2 you can't possibly be a vigilante, and you could also prove the same thing during the Day phase while we still have the option to lynch you!