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Mr.Zergling
United States141 Posts
On December 30 2010 15:30 Insanious wrote: sleeping probably, like I will be in 10 minutes. Not everyone can be on 24/7  .Fair enough, I'll be sleeping in 20 minutes anyway | ||
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Mr.Zergling
United States141 Posts
On December 30 2010 15:48 DoctorHelvetica wrote: gg Wait what? | ||
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Mr.Zergling
United States141 Posts
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Mr.Zergling
United States141 Posts
~snip + Show Spoiler + On December 29 2010 07:43 annul wrote: i do not play this game RNG. if this game was entirely RNG then what is the point of playing at all, of analysis, etc? i do not have a 6/30 chance of feeling correctly. my "feelings" are not RNG-based. Granted annul's analysis can make sense, and I initially agreed with it, I did not agree with his conclusions of LSB being mafia based on spamminess and some advice he gave. I don't think there is strong enough a case to take out LSB now, and annul's tunneling of him and his aggression hasn't really done much to sway my own opinion. I think we should find someone else to lynch right now, and come back to LSB if he cannot "prove beyond a reasonable doubt" that he is blue once day 2 starts. Other people we may want to consider: Seraph based on RoL's analysis. Brocket based on the strategy of going for lurkers day 1 I'm also not sure what to think of pandain right now based on his recent posts pertaining to the LSB and annul situation. (I'm not sure why, but my [ blue ] tag quit working here) Ah, finally, a clear opinion is reached. Wiggles decides that the whole annul v LSB thing is bull (though he says he agreed with annul's analysis though he never indicated as such earlier). He mentions Seraph and Brocket (candidates put forth by other people), but doesn't reach any clear conclusion regarding who to lynch in this post. Eventually, he ends up moving his vote to Brocket as the last person on that bandwagon. BUT THEN: after voting Brocket, he switches his vote to LSB just before the lynch ends with literally nothing backing it up. Why the hell did he switch to LSB 18 minutes before the vote ended when he thought LSB was town? Why did he switch from Brocket who fit what he was looking for? So many questions, so little answers. I will explain this later. ~snip~ Explain Now Please | ||
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Mr.Zergling
United States141 Posts
On December 31 2010 05:03 Barundar wrote: Mr.zergling would you mind posting your reason for voting mr.wiggles? And why you pick hin over the other suggested targets? I thought his last 18min switch to LSB was strange, but thats been noted. I think I am changing to Orgo after reading GGQ's analysis, but I think Ill give him time to respond before i change my vote again | ||
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Mr.Zergling
United States141 Posts
On December 31 2010 05:10 Mr. Wiggles wrote: [/blue](I'm not sure why, but my [ blue ] tag quit working here) Ah, finally, a clear opinion is reached. Wiggles decides that the whole annul v LSB thing is bull (though he says he agreed with annul's analysis though he never indicated as such earlier). He mentions Seraph and Brocket (candidates put forth by other people), but doesn't reach any clear conclusion regarding who to lynch in this post. Eventually, he ends up moving his vote to Brocket as the last person on that bandwagon. BUT THEN: after voting Brocket, he switches his vote to LSB just before the lynch ends with literally nothing backing it up. Why the hell did he switch to LSB 18 minutes before the vote ended when he thought LSB was town? Why did he switch from Brocket who fit what he was looking for? So many questions, so little answers. I will explain this later. ~snip~ Explain Now Please You would have seen the explanation if you had read through the full post. I was pressured by Pandain, and looking back, a lot of LSB's posts seemed to be either inconsistent or insubstantial, so I wasn't sure how much it would help town if he was still around with annul. We wouldn't be generating any new discussion, we would still be stuck on the LSB/annul argument. That was my reasoning at the time.[/QUOTE] I ffffail at reading comp, I read that as explain later in time, not in post >.< | ||
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Mr.Zergling
United States141 Posts
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Mr.Zergling
United States141 Posts
On December 31 2010 15:07 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: lol you say But hey look, I even did what you said I did Using the words "random" and "trivia" to preface what I said normally indicates that the following information isn't really relevant but somewhat funny nontheless. Dude... I need to mention, the pandain bandwagon was going on before I made that first post that got you all wrapped up in knots. I want to say one thing quick in case anyone else got things mixed up like you did MY ABOVE POST IS NOT MEANT TO FOS ANYONE, IF I FOS YOU, I WILL TELL IT STRAIGHT AND NOT TRY AND HIDE IT. Hey, if the trivia is random, then why include it? Non-Relevant trivia has no place in scumhunting, unless you are trying to FoS someone in a subtle manner. The fact is this "Non-Relevant Trivia" could cause some players to be suspicous in other player's minds. This is an FoS. Why do this when it makes you look incredibly scummy? | ||
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Mr.Zergling
United States141 Posts
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Mr.Zergling
United States141 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On January 01 2011 00:11 Barundar wrote: This post is to prove Mr.Zergling is mafia. I will show you that firstly, Mr.Zergling plays different than his last game as town in HP mafia, and secondly he cannot be a blue role. First, notice these posts, some of his first posts with content (my comments are in bold): + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2010 11:39 Mr.Zergling wrote: My vote has gone to LSB, as his responses to annul's analysis have been weak. However, from HP mafia, LSB seems to always act somewhat scummy (which is why he got lynched last game). Also deconduo's analysis gives some convincing reasons to lynch LSB (for instance: that recommending abstaining from voting is not a pro-town suggestion (also abstaining is against the rules)) Although, no day 1 lynch is ever clear, more of a shot in the dark than anything (((I love parenthesis))) Wishy washy post. Every argument has a counter argument. On December 29 2010 12:10 Mr.Zergling wrote: mmm This does have me suspicious of Paindain, but would a mafia really be that overt and outspoken about lynching a blue, or would they try and lay low so they are not associated with the impending mess when the target flips blue? Now though, we can look at all previous analysis in a new light Again he won't point fingers without being back and forth. The last line is just filler. Now compare that to his first posts in HP mafia as town: + Show Spoiler + On December 11 2010 12:14 Mr.Zergling wrote: I think LSB is making himself suspicious by proposing a 1st kill voting style that can be easily manipulated He has no problem pointing out what he finds suspecious about other players, without adding a "but maybe it's not". On December 12 2010 15:19 Mr.Zergling wrote: Why does it matter when meapak says he's gonna have votes on first lynch? Again, straight up posting. On December 14 2010 10:36 Mr.Zergling wrote: 1)Ummm...Breadcrumb? fill a noob in please 2) I think there was more than one town-hit that went down as Beneather was being considered as suspected scum by some players, and the mafia wouldn't really want to kill a suspected scum as a suspected scum can draw attention away from real scum Asks for advice, but post his thoughts without fear of them being wrong (and indeed he was right) Compare that to his general posting patterns on the forum: + Show Spoiler + I think randoms don't really have that much of an advantage because their race is not shown. Whatever advantage that may give is negated by them probably not being as good with the race they get as someone who mains one race. Edit: lol beat me to it. Gives opinion in the same way as when he was playing green in HPmafia. On December 10 2010 09:56 Mr.Zergling wrote: Considering whats been said already, if you have early game ff issues, I find running a small group of zerglings and/or banelings close to their army to make them panic and throw down a lot of ff is fairly effective, repeat until there is no more sentry energy left Another straight up opinion The posts from this game are much more unclear than his general posting habbits. That made me suspicious of him. For now it's enough to conclude that he has a role in this game. People don’t arbitrary change their posting style from one day to another. He tuned up the frequency when attention was switched to him. DrH wrote: + Show Spoiler + On December 29 2010 13:16 DoctorHelvetica wrote: i believe mr zergling is mafia, in fact i have since his very first few hosts he would be a good dt check as well as seraph and insanious ill reanalyse things when i get home. also why can noone spell "pandain" On December 30 2010 07:19 DoctorHelvetica wrote: We don't need to be discussing who to lynch until tomorrow. I think silence is the best policy during the night, don't give the mafia information with which they can better their hit list with. That being said I agree with a lot of Pandain's suspects. Mr.Zergling is probably mafia. I wouldn't be surprised if Mr.Wiggles was either. Before those posts, he had posted 11 times. While I wouldn’t read too much into this, the posting amount has increased by 16 since, possibly enhanched by me sharing my thoughts with the wrong people in PM’s. What’s interesting is however when he got called out for lurking in HP mafia, he simply posted + Show Spoiler + On December 12 2010 01:44 Mr.Zergling wrote: I've only posted once, because I right now feel there is nothing to add to this discussion. So far we can conclude that his posting behaviour is different from last game as town. This could either be because he is blue or red. Characteristic for blues are they will try and blend in, contributing without getting attention to themselves. Characteristic for red is they will want to appear to be contributing, without actually adding anything. With that in mind, let’s look at how much he is actually contributing. Own thoughts posts: + Show Spoiler + On December 27 2010 12:43 Mr.Zergling wrote: we should lynch inactives, if only to prevent the "paindain" disaster like what happened in HP mafia were we lynched a townie and one vote could have changed it This is good advice, but it follows straight after Pandain said the same thing, and LSB starts questioning Mr.Wiggles of his thoughts on it. On December 31 2010 11:44 Mr.Zergling wrote: I think a double lynch is a bad idea at this point, as we only have two of them for the whole game, and still don't have a clear first lynch target, much less second. I think annul is being a bit hasty in voting for double lynch Again not bad, but it follows straight after I posted On December 31 2010 05:56 Barundar wrote: Anyone else with thoughts on option for double lynch? I personally think it's too early yet, atleast untill we get a better idea of targets for today. ... and annul votes without providing a reason. He doesn’t add anything to this.On December 29 2010 15:43 Mr.Zergling wrote: Thinks of possible scenarios, but it’s based on faulty logic. Only the mafia knew LSB was innocent for sure. Notice the blatant contradiction in the last line. He voted away from LSB himself, does that mean we should look at him more trustworthy? Nothing is gained from the post overall, except: “he thinks pandain is suspicious” I am interested in why Pandain went from defending LSB (quite vehemently) to pushing strongly to lynch LSB, I suppose the role claim (which was never really clear) could have affected his view of LSB. Two scenarios: Pandain is blue: The unclear roleclaim threw him off and he decided that even though LSB had said he would prove his blueness, Pandain just wanted info (stated) -or- Pandain is red: He saw the bandwagon shifting to his possible scumbuddy Brocket, and decided that it wouldn't be too suspicious if he shifted the bandwagon back on to LSB by touting an "info lynch". Also making himself more trustworthy by saying that everyone who voted LSB should be under suspicion (which they should) On December 30 2010 13:02 Mr.Zergling wrote: Also added to my response a couple posts up: If you do have strong opinions on day 1 without an obvious scumslip, thats just an awful playstyle, especially if you change strong opinions every couple hours This adds nothing. He quote other people’s reasons, instead of giving his own, when voting: + Show Spoiler + On December 29 2010 09:24 Mr.Zergling wrote: This is a good enough reason for me to change my vote to brocket. Also, on my lurking, I often don't feel the need to post if I fell I do not have anything to contribute to analysis. This is especially compounded by this being the first day. + Show Spoiler + Instead of giving reasons he quote others. Because of this, and since he doesn’t contribute, we can rule out blue. This leaves only the possibility of a mafia. With this in mind, let’s try and have a look through some of his individual posts. We are looking for hints that support our conclusion based on the posting analysis above. Brings up that he likes to lurk, even though noone said he was lurking:+ Show Spoiler + On December 29 2010 09:24 Mr.Zergling wrote: This is a good enough reason for me to change my vote to brocket. Also, on my lurking, I often don't feel the need to post if I fell I do not have anything to contribute to analysis. This is especially compounded by this being the first day. There is talk about lurking, and other names are mentioned, but his isn’t. Why does he feel the need to defend himself without being accused? Because mafia feel inherently guilty, and wants to defend themselves before a suspicion is even raised. In HP mafia he wrote the same: + Show Spoiler + On December 12 2010 01:44 Mr.Zergling wrote: I've only posted once, because I right now feel there is nothing to add to this discussion. The time incident+ Show Spoiler + On December 29 2010 10:27 Mr.Zergling wrote: I fail at 12/24hr conversion.........my bad Also PM from paindain: why are you voting brockett tell me here in your own words why What is the relevance of the PM in this context? If he really wants to save LSB he should be relieved it isn’t over? Instead the PM make it sound like there is mafia trying to save LSB, and that we actually should continue lynching him. All it really is, is a diversion. Illogical voting/scumhunting: + Show Spoiler + On December 31 2010 05:08 Mr.Zergling wrote: I thought his last 18min switch to LSB was strange, but thats been noted. I think I am changing to Orgo after reading GGQ's analysis, but I think Ill give him time to respond before i change my vote again Mafia knows that vote switching draws attention. Yesterday he switched away from LSB to Brocket, but why would he be caught lynching a blue? Now he recognises his vote is based on wrong reasons, but doesn’t switch it. If he was scumhunting, he would want to pressure orgolove into posting by voting for him. It doesn’t make sense to state beforehand, that you are going to vote for him after he posts. There is no rationale for this, apart from a mafia’s fear of suspicious voting. Empty fingerpointing:+ Show Spoiler + Insanious, annul, Mepeak arguing just to throw us off? Sounds like a plausible way for reds to be able to deny association if someone gets lynched and flips red. This is distracting us from real scumhunting and making people feel like they need to jump on one bandwagon, thus fracturing the Town, and allowing the mafia to more or less control our lynch  The first part of this post is not bad, if it had been to lead the town into more fruitful discussions. But the last sentence is out of context. It is a barely hidden mafia gloat post about yesterday, and it serves no purpose here but as a filler. And finaly: + Show Spoiler + On December 31 2010 15:26 Mr.Zergling wrote: Hey, if the trivia is random, then why include it? Non-Relevant trivia has no place in scumhunting, unless you are trying to FoS someone in a subtle manner. The fact is this "Non-Relevant Trivia" could cause some players to be suspicous in other player's minds. This is an FoS. Why do this when it makes you look incredibly scummy? This post looks very different from all the rest of Mr.Zergling’s posting. It’s sharp, direct, suggests he is scumhunting, and it is intelligent. No more wishy washy tone like in this game, or statement of opinions like in HPmafia. Compare it to this other post: On December 29 2010 12:27 Mr.Zergling wrote: I was trying to say something more along the lines of: Some people are suspicious of paindain (myself included), but we cannot tell if he is scum based on what we think scum would do. This all sounds better in my head. Is there any doubt these posts are not written by the same person? Conclusion: Mr.Zerglings posting behaviour differs from his last game as town. He has added little to none individual contribution to the thread, and we can therefore rule out blue. This leaves only mafia. Lynch Mr.Zergling Ok, so I had a blue role in HP mafia (we all kind of did). I have only been a member of this forum for a little while, and played one game of mafia here. Based on that you're applying metagame to your anaylsis of me? Have fun wasting your lynch on a green. I don't really know how else to defend myself from this, all pretty much true, but I am a relatively new palyer and am kind of growing into mafia here on TL. | ||
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Mr.Zergling
United States141 Posts
On January 01 2011 07:36 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Let's go over this real quick. ~snip~ Due to subsequent analysis done by soulfire and why I will be switching my vote to seraph. I'll also be voting double lynch so we can snag Mr. Zergling (who it seems like he has ghost writers for some of his posts as barunder pointed out) and any possible dt finds next day. ~snip~ How my posts are/sound depend on my various states of Sleep Deprivation/Caffeine content, not surprising I sound like a different person sometimes. | ||
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Mr.Zergling
United States141 Posts
On January 02 2011 04:41 Barundar wrote: I don’t like this. There is no support for Orgolove, mafia seems way too likely to let him die. When Orgolove got pressured hard on day 2 in HPmafia, he spammed a lot trying to defend himself. In this game he doesn’t seem to care. He hasn’t added anything, but he is acting completely different when accused and we have no mafia counter bandwagon. Therefore I’m going to switch my vote to annul. If he was town he would try and improve from his mistake on LSB, and try to come back in the game. Now he seems like he doesn’t care, and just lurks. This leads me to think he is a mafia who just want to get rid of the attention. The lack of defense for him could be that he is red, and none of the mafia want to be associated with him if/when he flips red | ||
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Mr.Zergling
United States141 Posts
On January 02 2011 12:16 LunarDestiny wrote: Mr.Zergling, you are next. I pressured annul to explain why him voted for you. He didn't respond. As a mafia being targeted, he would defer his attention to another townie. Unless you are also mafia, he would definitely take the chance to accuse you. Annul did not. I don't expect you to respond anytime soon as both you and your "ghost writers" (a term created by a person I forgot) must be present to help make your analysis good. First of all, I have no "ghost writers", all posts made are composed by me. If it comes across as me being unsure in a post, then I probably was. Also, as I have said before, my general tone and alertness changes with sleep/caffeine content. I think it was Barundar who called me out on quoting other people as reasons for my votes. I was quoting other people to explain my voting reasons, because those were the posts that convinced me to vote in such a manner. The accusation of me was already done, and maybe annul thought that with his vote and Barundar's analysis he would be able to start a counter bandwagon on me. I think he knew that he was screwed. | ||
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Mr.Zergling
United States141 Posts
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Mr.Zergling
United States141 Posts
On January 02 2011 12:33 LunarDestiny wrote: Explain to me why didn't annul, who was being pressured by many, didn't take the chance to get out of being lynch. A active mafia who was to be lynch will do all he can to escape. I afford him a question to make himself look more town. He could at least give some reasons why he voted for you. He can even create some bullshit lies about why you are mafia (a desperate mafia will take this risk). He just brush off my question entirely. I can't answer this, I'm not reading annul's mind. Pressuring me hard huh. | ||
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Mr.Zergling
United States141 Posts
On January 02 2011 13:13 LunarDestiny wrote: I am not expecting you to read annul's mind and explain why he didn't accuse you. That is my logic of why you are mafia. I want you to point out the flaws in my logic. There is essentially no flaw to point out in that logic, except for I think annul kind of gave up,, as evidenced by his last couple posts On January 02 2011 12:36 LunarDestiny wrote: This is irrelevant and not the style of writing that you composed for the contribute you made in this game. However, this post is shortly after your semi detailed post which is understandable. By irrelevant, I mean that a vanilla townie will try to absorb a mafia hit, especially since it is night. If you are mafia, you are doing the same thing annul was doing before he died. I meant to add that to my semi-detailed post, just to make it clear that I am not claiming a blue role, and thus you are free to lynch me if you want without much loss to the town. | ||
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Mr.Zergling
United States141 Posts
On January 02 2011 13:23 LunarDestiny wrote: There is no reason for Annul to give up. The votes for him and Orgolove are very close. He even try explaining why he sudden went lurking after his mislynch of LSB. Again, I gave him a chance to save himself. As the godfather, I don't think he would give up since losing the godfather is a huge blow to the mafia. You are still asking me why I think annul would not have taken that lifeline. The thing is, I don't know. | ||
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Mr.Zergling
United States141 Posts
On January 02 2011 14:12 Mr.Zergling wrote: You are still asking me why I think annul would not have taken that lifeline. The thing is, I don't know. EBWOP: You are still asking me why I think annul would not have taken that lifeline. The thing is, I don't know. It doesn't make any sense to me either. | ||
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Mr.Zergling
United States141 Posts
On January 02 2011 14:21 LunarDestiny wrote: So are you saying that my logic has no flaw and you can not think of a reason why annul acted the way he did? Yes | ||
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Mr.Zergling
United States141 Posts
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