/in
n00b
don't worry KJ I don't feel intimidated by some terms.
Forum Index > TL Mafia |
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
/in n00b don't worry KJ I don't feel intimidated by some terms. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + it's a great metaphor I just heard on some TV show | ||
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edit for clarity (and because it feels naughty in a mafia forum): tough guy = kavdragon | ||
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Since I didn't get it and Kav explained it to me, I'll assume someone else could benefit from an explanation as well: The colors on the banner are supposed to represent teams. Decon: I think it'd be silly to have a roleblocker and no roles to block, no? Setup 2 is the least likely imo. However, town circle is still out (no pm's). A few rules to clear up: Are we expected to stop communicating with our senior/junior partner if they are modkilled? Do we vote to lynch teams, or individuals? | ||
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aidnai
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A few rules to clear up: Are we expected to stop communicating with our senior/junior partner if they are modkilled? Do we vote to lynch teams, or individuals? | ||
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@Deconduo: ok, if any setup is equally likely, than I agree we should "assume" setup 2 -- no blues. It's never good to rely on blues too much anyway. LSB, I'm pretty sick of the day 1 let's lynch inactives campaign...but with almost no activity so far, we might have to. Maybe everyone is trying to coordinate with their partner before diving in head first? I know Kav and I have had internet availability issues at home as well, I might be stuck posting from work only for a bit ![]() | ||
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On January 05 2011 01:43 Ace wrote: You should just vote for whoever you think will not help you win the game. This is an interesting perspective. I'm used to hearing that killing bad townies is still killing townies. A lot of the skill in scumhunting is in differentiating scum/bad townie, afterall. On January 04 2011 17:29 orgolove wrote: ... I'm not going to post any votes until there's something more concrete to go on. The idea is, use your vote to make something concrete happen. I hope we avoid lynching the most vocal/active players this game. Pressure inactives, if someone presents a good lynch great, but let's not kill someone who will be active for the rest of the game. I'll add some pressure for now. Vote: TheMango/Gmarshal/Foolishness | ||
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not that there's a whole lot of anything to discuss with him anyway. | ||
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I don't want Gmarshal to actually die. He's one of the only actives at this point. So I'll switch to beneather/BC for lack of anything better... ##unvote ##Vote Beneather/BC sorry about the ## thing before RoL | ||
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On January 04 2011 17:29 orgolove wrote: I apologize for being busy. So we're having a day 1 lynch without any starting information huh. An open setup with unknown roleblockers gives a disadvantage to the town, but as the saying goes, "a challenge means god's afraid of your progress" All right, lets see. ... Looking at the past two pages, there's nothing to analyze. There's only been two votes, and the only discussion has been whether to lynch inactives. no. Bad idea. In a game such as this, planning to lynch an inactive just allows the reds to guide the discussion to whichever inactive green they know isn't a part of them and leads to the town's disadvantage. I'm not going to post any votes until there's something more concrete to go on. Considering this is Orgolove's only post since the day post, I figure you must mean this one meapak? | ||
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Anyway, I think ace is harder to read than you make him out to be. And meapak did give a reason (sort of) for voting orgolove. | ||
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Nah, I'm at work, he's at school. I sent him a text, but he could be commuting right now. | ||
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Even though LSB is pulling at straws with that 'analysis', I don't want to lynch him. 1) he's so pro-town he sucks at being scum. 2) if we kill him activity will grind to a halt and the game will end with less than 20 pages. | ||
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On January 05 2011 02:31 Ace wrote: Yes it's still killing a townie but it gets you closer to your win condition. Doing it later in the game has major consequences but it's Day 1 and I don't see people trying to really do much. Alas I can't vote. Oh well. Since you're around Ace, I do want to hear more about this. How does lynching bad townies get us closer to our win condition? It's just one less townie for the mafia to kill, as far as I'm concerned. | ||
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##Unvote Beneather/BC ##Vote GMarshal/Foolishness/whoever | ||
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The reason I'm switching my vote off beneather is that he posted an analysis of me (quoted below) that makes me think he is town. Also, if he flips red, it will obviously mean nothing. So why would he bother writing it at all? Finally, they did nothing scummy to earn my vote in the first place, the problem was, they did nothing at all. Now that beneather has posted, it's time to move on. The reason I'm switching to Gmarshal/Foolishness/TheMango (sorry about forgetting you in my vote) is because I'm following my senior's analysis on this one, and that's the only way to save beneather I believe. RoL, please let my vote count or extend day or something. The inactivity is making this hard ![]() On January 05 2011 11:55 Beneather wrote: There is really nothing I could do about being lynched. Since the people that already voted hasn't been here to change their decision. There's really no information on who to vote for since there hasn't been much activity in this game. Also aidnai is supporting different people then all of a sudden against them very confusing. Show nested quote + On January 05 2011 10:04 aidnai wrote: Although we should probably note that your team is currently 'pushing his wagon' lol. These post show that he agrees with what Ace is saying and just spamming away 1 line post etc. Show nested quote + On January 05 2011 10:15 aidnai wrote: Yeah, the last shitty analysis I saw from LSB was in HP mafia, directed at me. He was scum that time...but he wanted to get lynched as I recall, so...hmm. Even though LSB is pulling at straws with that 'analysis', I don't want to lynch him. 1) he's so pro-town he sucks at being scum. 2) if we kill him activity will grind to a halt and the game will end with less than 20 pages. Here he is protecting Ace from LSB's attack on Ace saying that he's too pro-town that he sucks at being a mafia. So basically he's saying that LSB is scum. But don't kill him because that would make less activity. This doesn't make sense because aren't we looking to lynch mafia. If we get a mafia then we're one step closer to win the game. If we get a mafia on day 1 we'll get more activity and so on. I'm not saying LSB is a mafia I'm just saying what aidnai is saying completely is going left to right. Show nested quote + On January 05 2011 10:30 aidnai wrote: On January 05 2011 02:31 Ace wrote: Yes it's still killing a townie but it gets you closer to your win condition. Doing it later in the game has major consequences but it's Day 1 and I don't see people trying to really do much. Alas I can't vote. Oh well. Since you're around Ace, I do want to hear more about this. How does lynching bad townies get us closer to our win condition? It's just one less townie for the mafia to kill, as far as I'm concerned. Alright this post confuses me as lynching a bad town really confuses a town if he's a scum or if he's just a bad town. That's what we have to choose between to find scum. But aidnai is just saying that it is 1 less town that the mafia kills but that gets the closer to their own objective of out numbering the town. I believe the more town we have from not lynching them in Days is better for it will take longer for the Mafia to kill the town. It will also give the town more time to find these mafias. Yes lynching an inactive is good for the beginning but wouldn't it be better to lynch someone that is acting scummy. Near the end the DT's should have role checked the inactives to see if their scum. I think that's a better way of doing it because there is not other way of finding if their scum or towny since they're inactive. My comments on this to beneather: First, I was around this afternoon, so if you had posted earlier, i could have changed my vote earlier. Like you, I was forced to post without input from my senior. Unlike you, I was actively pushing and trying to generate some discussion. I'm not flipflopping around, either. I think Nemesis' vote was fishy to say the least, and even though I don't trust LSB or Ace per se, I don't think they are scum either. | ||
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I got a really bad feeling from Nemesis' vote on orgolove yesterday. | ||
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Giving out information during night 1 really hurt town in experimental mini mafia (I was scum that game). We had a medic claim, another blue claim, I forget what else, but me and my scumbuddies were laughing it up in our IRC as town shot themselves in one foot then the other. KJ might remember better. The gist of my thought is: any info you give out at night can be used against town, and can't be used by town until morning. So wait until morning. Take this time to go over the thread with your partner or something. However if anyone really wants to go on being vocal and jolly go right ahead, it certainly will give me more to analyze. | ||
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![]() I'm glad to see at least some conversation occurring. @Nemesis: I am really looking forward to reading your analysis of me. As I have already mentioned a few times, I'm wary of you at the moment, and I hope my suspicions will be either allayed or confirmed by you posting something of substance. If you come to the conclusion that I'm town, I'd actually rather see an analysis on someone else though. I'm going to suggest a few people below. @Deconduo: I understand that, if there is a cop, it would be nice for the cop to not have to worry about dying before passing on the info they have collected. However, I think we're better off going with your original suggestion of assuming no blue roles, and just scumhunting normally. If there is a cop and the cop finds a red, I think it's worth just claiming at that point. There's only two mafia teams total afterall, if we get one we're halfway there. If the cop only finds greens, I don't think getting a green list is necessarily worth the trouble/risk of doing the hypocop. That's all my opinion anyway, I'd like to hear KJ on this too though. BTW, I missed the same rule in the OP as KJ regarding claiming role block. I didn't realize that greens would also be notified. In any case, subversion's claim doesn't mean anything for now. If we have another claim tomorrow (different team), that will be much more interesting. Here are my top lynch candidates. Orgolove Every single post has been an apology for being busy, or a criticism of what the town is doing (or both). He even criticized me for wanting quiet at night when he himself refused to pressure vote or help town with activity. For what it's worth, his first post has a classic scumtell (I did the same thing in experimental mini mafia and RoL picked up on it) -- he sympathizes with town by pointing out a disadvantage given by the setup. Doesn't mean much on it's own, but it is strangely common for scum to do this exact thing. His 6 total posts for your reading pleasure: + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2011 17:29 orgolove wrote: I apologize for being busy. So we're having a day 1 lynch without any starting information huh. An open setup with unknown roleblockers gives a disadvantage to the town, but as the saying goes, "a challenge means god's afraid of your progress" All right, lets see. ... Looking at the past two pages, there's nothing to analyze. There's only been two votes, and the only discussion has been whether to lynch inactives. no. Bad idea. In a game such as this, planning to lynch an inactive just allows the reds to guide the discussion to whichever inactive green they know isn't a part of them and leads to the town's disadvantage. I'm not going to post any votes until there's something more concrete to go on. On January 05 2011 23:02 orgolove wrote: I apologize - my schedule is really off right now. ![]() Gmarshal (.5) Deconduo Aidnai Subversion Huh - wait a minute - town had nothing to go on. Why did you guys vote? On January 05 2011 23:02 orgolove wrote: I mean, what made you vote for Beneather? On January 06 2011 01:10 orgolove wrote: >>>> Vote for inactives strategy is... not beneficial at all for the town, to say the least. The reds can subtly direct to whoever they would know is not a red and yet inactive. :/ We as town have no information, and reds can use that to lynch a green. If we don't have any information, pressuring is fine.. but just hitting someone because they're inactive is not a good strategy at all. This is why I also like the mayor idea for the first day, as it gives a way for town to get useful info on day 1... On January 06 2011 21:20 orgolove wrote: kingjames' post sounds like a kneejerk reaction due to the potentially losing the bandwagon. -_- And I'm surprised people hasn't picked up on the scumminess of aidnai's suggestion that the town shouldn't discuss anything during the night. First he says it's sad that there's such lack of activity, then he encourages town to stay inactive? Discussion is the only weapon for townies with no information. Whether it is done during the night or during the day doesn't make any difference - this just looks like a subtle effort by a red to sabotage the town's efforts. On January 07 2011 07:16 orgolove wrote: Show nested quote + On January 07 2011 06:49 chaoser wrote: I want to know why orgolove didn't vote the first day. I understand if this was a 30 person game and one person abstaining isn't THAT important but it's a 9 "person" game and one whole team not voting is HUGE. Right. Did you not read my post immediately afterwards? It was still in the middle of the season, and I was unable to log on before the deadline to place my vote. Since then I've tried as well as anyone to contribute and make sense of this discussion, from which there really wasn't any. Focusing on inactivity won't help the town, and I'm surprised you, of all people, are choosing to do that, especially without any response to deconduo's suggestion. @deconduo: what exactly do you mean by hypocop? Major points: -Missed the day 1 vote! -He is continuously pointing out why this or that doesn't help town, without once attempting to actually help the town himself by doing the things he himself suggests. -Says "Discussion is the only weapon for townies with no information", has 6 total posts in the thread (since the first day post) -Criticizes me for discouraging discussion at night, when he discouraged it during day (says 'nothing to analyze' and 'not going to vote...'). Subversion As KJ and meapak have pointed out, this claim is an easy fake claim for mafia if they don't have a roleblocker. Coupled with his lackluster posts and afk-ness looks pretty bad imo. His posts (I tried to fix his quotes so it wouldn't mess up mine): + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2011 16:25 Subversion wrote: Show nested quote + On January 04 2011 10:46 Nemesis wrote: Ok I just got here. Just to share my ideas with the current plans. On January 04 2011 00:51 deconduo wrote: Would a good idea be to work off the assumption we are in setup #2? Basically we assume that there are no blues, and if we do have a DT or medic its a bonus. That way we focus more on scumhunting rather than relying on a DT/medic to form a circle that might not be there at all. I wouldn't make any assumptions as to what setup we are going with. We should consider all the possible setups. But yes, we should focus more on scumhunting than relying on forming circles based on blue roles. On January 04 2011 00:37 LSB wrote: Well... Activity isn't going to magically create itself. So... All right, in many games there was an uneventful first day. Lets not make this one of those games. A few things to talk about:
Inactives: A big problem in every mafia game is inactivity. I don't want another drag_ being able to squeak by with barely any posts. We should immediately show it is not okay to be inactive. Inactive players hurt the town as they waste lynches down the road as the town will need to try to separate the mafia from the inactives. We should therefore push to lynch an inactive day one. This will force the assassins to discuss and not be able to turtle, increasing the chance they will slip up. The key is that we have to make sure the town knows it is not okay to just simply sit back and not do anything. This way, hopefully everyone will be active and we won't need to lynch an inactive. Plan Firstly. DO NOT CLAIM DO NOT CLAIM Good now that we got that out of the way, some other ideas. Generic Blue Activity plan One plan that would work is to use the blue roles to promote activity in the town. The DTs should check the inactive people and the lurkers, as it is incredibly difficult if not impossible to tell the difference between a bored townie and a lurking mafia. The Medics should protect active players, this way the mafia won't be able to take out the people who are contributing the most to town, so people won't be scared of trying to put forth their opinions. Although, I myself do not like inactives, our goal is to lynch mafia. So unless we can't come up with any good target to lynch by the end of the day, then I don't advocate the lynching of inactives, but lynching them might be a good idea if we have nothing else to go on. As for dts checking inactive people(if we do indeed have dts), I think that might be a lot better plan than lynching inactives as we would be wasting town's greatest weapon. Lynching inactives is basically the same as RNG, a random chance of lynching scum. The only good thing is it prevents inactivity and encourages acitivity. i dont really see what the point is of DTs checking inactives if its publicly announced. Surely then mafia will just make sure they're not inactive to avoid being detected? On January 05 2011 09:00 Subversion wrote: Show nested quote + On January 05 2011 01:22 LSB wrote: On January 04 2011 16:25 Subversion wrote: On January 04 2011 10:46 Nemesis wrote: Ok I just got here. Just to share my ideas with the current plans. On January 04 2011 00:51 deconduo wrote: Would a good idea be to work off the assumption we are in setup #2? Basically we assume that there are no blues, and if we do have a DT or medic its a bonus. That way we focus more on scumhunting rather than relying on a DT/medic to form a circle that might not be there at all. I wouldn't make any assumptions as to what setup we are going with. We should consider all the possible setups. But yes, we should focus more on scumhunting than relying on forming circles based on blue roles. On January 04 2011 00:37 LSB wrote: Well... Activity isn't going to magically create itself. So... All right, in many games there was an uneventful first day. Lets not make this one of those games. A few things to talk about:
Inactives: A big problem in every mafia game is inactivity. I don't want another drag_ being able to squeak by with barely any posts. We should immediately show it is not okay to be inactive. Inactive players hurt the town as they waste lynches down the road as the town will need to try to separate the mafia from the inactives. We should therefore push to lynch an inactive day one. This will force the assassins to discuss and not be able to turtle, increasing the chance they will slip up. The key is that we have to make sure the town knows it is not okay to just simply sit back and not do anything. This way, hopefully everyone will be active and we won't need to lynch an inactive. Plan Firstly. DO NOT CLAIM DO NOT CLAIM Good now that we got that out of the way, some other ideas. Generic Blue Activity plan One plan that would work is to use the blue roles to promote activity in the town. The DTs should check the inactive people and the lurkers, as it is incredibly difficult if not impossible to tell the difference between a bored townie and a lurking mafia. The Medics should protect active players, this way the mafia won't be able to take out the people who are contributing the most to town, so people won't be scared of trying to put forth their opinions. Although, I myself do not like inactives, our goal is to lynch mafia. So unless we can't come up with any good target to lynch by the end of the day, then I don't advocate the lynching of inactives, but lynching them might be a good idea if we have nothing else to go on. As for dts checking inactive people(if we do indeed have dts), I think that might be a lot better plan than lynching inactives as we would be wasting town's greatest weapon. Lynching inactives is basically the same as RNG, a random chance of lynching scum. The only good thing is it prevents inactivity and encourages acitivity. i dont really see what the point is of DTs checking inactives if its publicly announced. Surely then mafia will just make sure they're not inactive to avoid being detected? Exactly. That's the plan. That way the mafia will forced to stay active where it is easier to find them. You can't analyze an inactive mafia. But you can analyze one that talks Oh okay, soz, that actually makes a lot of sense. Ugh this Day 1 vote is really just.. meh. Really not much to go on. For now I'm going with: ##Vote Beneather/BC My main reasoning here is that Beneather seems reluctant to say anything without BC being here to give him advice. Seems like a scummy junior would be scared of exposing himself without a senior to run his posts by. Also, BC yet to make an appearance. On January 05 2011 09:00 Subversion wrote: omg, somehow completely fucked something up in the above post, sorry for the random screwed up quotes =/ also need to bold my vote ##Vote Beneather/BC On January 05 2011 09:44 Subversion wrote: Oh okay, soz, that actually makes a lot of sense. Ugh this Day 1 vote is really just.. meh. Really not much to go on. For now I'm going with: ##Vote Beneather/BC My main reasoning here is that Beneather seems reluctant to say anything without BC being here to give him advice. Seems like a scummy junior would be scared of exposing himself without a senior to run his posts by. Also, BC yet to make an appearance. That's pretty much the whole post, except I also just said thanks to LSB for clarifying the check inactives plan, and why its good. On January 06 2011 14:39 Subversion wrote: Morning everyone. Since mafia already knows, I've been roleblocked As for other teams that are being discussed, meapak/ace have given reasons for low activity. If the inactivity continues, we should look again a little closer, but I have not seen anything scummy yet. Gmarshal/mango looks about 90% green to me (although KJ disagrees lol). Something feels off about nemesis, but until he posts something substantial, I will wait to build my case. Orgolove is top lynch target today. Subversion is not a bad target, but I would actually like to see if we get another roleblock claim (from someone else) tomorrow. | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
##Vote Team 9: Flamewheel/Orgolove And for kicks, the link to the post where RoL analyzes me doing the same scumtell as orgolove. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=172696¤tpage=10#181 | ||
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Please tell us what you think of my analysis of orgolove. Or if you prefer, analyze someone else that you think is scum. | ||
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Also, remember to vote! I want orgo to see the votes stacking up so both he and his team have to respond. @mango: you're being a little silly. Mafia don't want all the attention, they don't want to actually contribute, and it's hard for them to point fingers and mean it because they know everyone else is innocent. It should be pretty obvious that KJ/me are not mafia. I'm also not worried about deconduo at the moment, but I suppose that could change. Meapak is due back soon I believe. Meapak -- I know you're looking at subversion, but could I convince you to vote orgo today so we can see if someone else gets roleblocked tomorrow? I think orgo is a better lynch in any case. | ||
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@mango again, talk to foolishness about deconduo, me, and orgolove. I am fairly confident that your team is town aligned, and foolishness should be a great resource to you/us. Actually, everyone do your best to bounce thoughts off your senior. They're basically 'playing' this game as a helpful service to us, so show some appreciation and don't let it go to waste. I feel like we haven't heard from nemesis in a long while, despite a promised analysis from him ![]() | ||
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On January 06 2011 06:52 aidnai wrote: I mean we townies can't act on it. Except blues, but I'm all for leaving the blues to act on their own. Giving out information during night 1 really hurt town in experimental mini mafia (I was scum that game). We had a medic claim, another blue claim, I forget what else, but me and my scumbuddies were laughing it up in our IRC as town shot themselves in one foot then the other. KJ might remember better. The gist of my thought is: any info you give out at night can be used against town, and can't be used by town until morning. So wait until morning. Take this time to go over the thread with your partner or something. However if anyone really wants to go on being vocal and jolly go right ahead, it certainly will give me more to analyze. Do you have a more specific question about my reasoning? We have I think 7 hours left? Votes so far: orgolove/Flamewheel: 2.5 GMarshal (0.5) Meapak_Ziphh aidnai aidnai/KingJames01: 1 orgolove Subversion: 0 Not yet voted: Nemesis, Subversion, Deconduo, TheMango (0.5) As I have mentioned before, I'm really keen to see what nemesis and subversion will contribute today. | ||
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However, I will not be deterred from the task at hand. Orgolove has posted again in the other game, so I know for a fact he's read my analysis and knows the votes are mounting over here. I'm having a hard time imagining a pro-town reason for not contributing to discussion in this thread, and not defending yourself from a lynch... 4 hours left? Votes so far: orgolove/Flamewheel: 2.5 GMarshal (0.5) Meapak_Ziphh aidnai aidnai/KingJames01: 2 orgolove Nemesis Subversion: 0 Not yet voted: Subversion, Deconduo, TheMango (0.5) I'm counting on you deconduo. TheMango, you heard anything from foolishness yet? | ||
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Look at the rest of his posts too. When everyone was saying "not enough to analyze" or talking about lynching inactives, KJ was one of the first to post an analysis (of GM/Foolishness/mango). He also did his best (along with me) to avoid Beneather's lynch. No reason to do that as a scum...just afk ftw in that situation (I mean, beneather gave us all of five minutes to respond to his pre-death post). Anyway, a defense coming from me won't mean much, so I'll leave it to you to figure out. | ||
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From my perspective, the two scum are between orgolove, nemesis, and subversion. We have imo a stronger case against orgolove than anyone else. If we wait on subversion and we get another roleblock claim, we either have both mafia caught lying or subversion is telling the truth. I understand that I'm being scrutinized because I'm attracting attention. It happens to every town leader. But please, remember mafia don't want attention. They want to blend in... Meapak, there's only two hours left, and it would be pretty miraculous if you were actually able to swing the vote to subversion. If you're gonna insist on voting for him instead of playing along with me, will you at least provide the pretty good read (on subversion) Ace told us about? | ||
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I'll give you a hint RoL, we lynched orgolove/flamewheel. I'm stuck hitting f5 until I find out if we got scum or not, so...wanna just flip him and skip the flavor text? | ||
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I don't think I'll be killed tonight, since i'll be a lynch target tomorrow anyway. Remember, being wrong doesn't make me scum, and nothing I've done makes sense for scum. Orgo let us down. I guess he didn't care about town winning this game, as I see it, he did have a responsibility to show up and DO SOMETHING to show he was town. I guess meapak's concern about no one showing up to defend orgo was a good intuition. But on the flip side, when RoL accused me in Experimental mini, my mafia buddies completely ignored it. Even when it picked up steam, they did nothing. I only avoided the lynch because RoL was replaced and pandain (a townie) decided to defend me. I'm going to halt town leadership activities for now. Someone else please step up, I don't even want to nominate someone. I think there's a good chance we have a DT, if I get checked i'll be clear in the morning. Mafia still have a quandry on their hands with the roleblock thing. If they roleblocked subversion, they cannot use their roleblock on anyone else without proving subversion's innocence. If subversion is mafia, they don't have a roleblock anyway to stop a DT from checking me. So I'm hopeful... | ||
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![]() I was thinking/hoping that deconduo was the DT. I really like the way he played this game, he definitely drew a blue snipe attempt in my opinion. I am extremely surprised to see him flip green. Do we have a DT? did I get checked? I think I understand what flamewheel was talking about here On January 08 2011 10:48 flamewheel wrote: I'll help Meapak along in that since orgolove isn't around, and probably won't be for the foreseeable future. I'm not going to really lay it out, but take a look at Subversion's day 1 voting post. Take a look at his reasoning for the vote, and ask yourself if it makes sense. For reference, here's subversion's reasoning: On January 05 2011 09:44 Subversion wrote: ... ##Vote Beneather/BC My main reasoning here is that Beneather seems reluctant to say anything without BC being here to give him advice. Seems like a scummy junior would be scared of exposing himself without a senior to run his posts by. Also, BC yet to make an appearance. ... Does this reasoning make sense? It does, right? but why did Subversion come up with this reason? Is it possible that he was experiencing that same feeling himself? My idea is that Subversion was posting what was on his mind, just applying it to Beneather/BC instead of himself. Any other thoughts on this? Thanks for the day extension RoL | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
1- KJ didn't push subversion hard enough (he's been afk/inactive) 2- Aidnai was on the wagon for two innocents (so was gmarshal AND deconduo) You took a lot of time and effort to make a nice big post to convince everyone to lynch me, but it's like you didn't read my posts or make any attempt to do behavioural analysis. The only reason your team has escaped scrutiny so far is because you both gave reasons for being inactive. But I'm rethinking this right now. I'm currently considering Meapak/Nemesis scum team. Something I need to think through is why would they risk fakeclaiming... well, if subversion was telling the truth all along, then we are almost certainly in setup 2. I've asked a DT to check/claim, Ace asked for either the medic or DT to claim, it's been day for a while now and no one has claimed, so more than likely there are no blues -> safe to fake claim. Subversion is an easy target, probably won't even show up to defend himself. Going back and re-reading now, if anyone chimes in while i'm re-reading, that'd be nice. | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
1. LSB/Kavdragon - Killed Night 1 3. Beneather/Bloody_C0bbler - Lynched Day 1 4. Deconduo/Chezinu - Killed Night 2 9. Flamewheel/Orgolove - Lynched Day 2 leaving 2. TheMango/Gmarshal/Foolishness 5. Meapak_Ziphh/Ace 6. KingJames01/Aidnai 7. Incognito/Subversion 8. Chaoser/Nemesis Based on my prior analysis of team 2, I am convinced that they are green. I know that I'm green, and I think it should be possible to come to this conclusion by analyzing my behavior as well. That leaves 2 scum out of 5. Meapak_Ziphh/Ace 7. Incognito/Subversion 8. Chaoser/Nemesis There are only two options here. 1) Nemesis is telling the truth. -Nemesis/meapak are clear, subversion is scum. -subversion fake claimed the roleblock, there is no roleblocker -We are in setup 4: 2 Mafia Goon, 1 Detective, 6 Town -Either aidnai/KJ or Gmarshal/foolishness/mango are the remaining scum team. Problems: -Assuming Nemesis is really a DT, why not pick orgolove night one? why not pick me night two? -I don't believe Gmarshal et al are scum. -Doesn't explain Subversion's complete lack of interest in the game. or 2) Nemesis is lying -Scum team is pushing an easy lynch to finish us off -Subversion is an apathetic townie, he told the truth about his roleblock claim -With no blues claiming and a mafia roleblocker, we are in setup 2 -The remaining scum team is between aidnai/meapak/mango-gmarshal -most likely remaining scum is meapak (since nemesis tried to clear them, and other teams are likely greens) Problems: -why would scum do something so bold when they were doing just fine without a fakeclaim? It's almost certain one of subversion/aidnai would have been lynched today anyway. For me right now, it comes down to Gmarshal being town. That right there proves to me that nemesis is lying. Of course, I need to convince Gmarshal/mango and subversion that I am town as well. Have you been able to talk to foolishness yet? I feel weird tooting my own horn, but if I have to, I will go back and analyze myself to show I can't be mafia. A HUGE issue for town right now is subversion being afk. If he doesn't show up and he is town, then the only way we get a town lynch done today is if we get our votes on a scum before they get their votes on us. Therefore, Gmarshal/Mango, I'm urging you to vote nemesis immediately, even if you aren't 100% convinced by what I say at the moment. If subversion really is scum, then town will be able to get a majority vote whether or not he shows up. If subversion is innocent, then it is imperative that we get our lynch votes ASAP. ##Vote Nemesis/Chaoser | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
On January 10 2011 05:12 Nemesis wrote: Show nested quote + On January 10 2011 04:59 aidnai wrote: If mafia are confident enough that we have setup 2 to fake roleclaim, there's no need to roleblock anyone. That's frighteningly obvious I thought.... If mafia does indeed have a roleblocker, they wouldn't have known it was setup 2 until after their supposed blue snipe on deconduo. Even so, the only person they could have roleblocked would be subversion, who is not around to tell us about it. If they roleblocked anyone else, subversion would be somewhat cleared. | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
A HUGE issue for town right now is subversion being afk. If he doesn't show up and he is town, then the only way we get a town lynch done today is if we get our votes on a scum before they get their votes on us. Therefore, Gmarshal/Mango, I'm urging you to vote nemesis immediately, even if you aren't 100% convinced by what I say at the moment. If subversion really is scum, then town will be able to get a majority vote whether or not he shows up. If subversion is innocent, then it is imperative that we get our lynch votes ASAP. | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
On January 10 2011 05:48 TheMango wrote: I see, because if it's tied, it's whoever got their vote in first? That's correct Mango. I hope to god gmarshal shows up like right now because ace/nemesis are both here and about to vote for subversion... | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
On January 10 2011 05:49 Ace wrote: See the problem here is that not only is subversion pretty much inactive but no one else has reported being role blocked. While Nemesis may be a fake DT claim I don't think so. For one I still think aidnai isn't Town oriented. Here aidnai, here's a post of yours I was just looking at here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=7488394 Specifically this: Show nested quote + think Nemesis' vote was fishy to say the least, and even though I don't trust LSB or Ace per se, I don't think they are scum either. I mean really. You don't even have a solid stance + the fact you appeared on both innocent wagons. I mean seriously how many times do I have to look back at your posts and see "I have a really bad feeling". You haven't exactly been committed to anything this game.But for now we'll ignore you. I think we have to roll with Nemesis here. 1.) No one else has been reportedly role blocked 2.) If Nemesis is faking a DT claim that's a sick play because of this: Show nested quote + On January 07 2011 08:13 Nemesis wrote: On January 06 2011 23:28 deconduo wrote: Everyone claims to be a cop and gives out a report, if/when the real cop dies town can then look at what the reports were. Its used in situations with a roleblocker or when theres no medic protection so that cop can't safely claim openly. The biggest disadvantage with it is that mafia can work out who the cop is quicker than normal by eliminating people who give wrong reports. I don't really see how that will be helpful to town. Right now I am suspicious of subversion and aidnai. I will make an analysis on them later and decide my vote. As for subversion's claim of being roleblocked, there is a possibility that he is lying, but he could also be telling the truth so it is a bit WIFOM. My senior chaoser is rather inactive, and only pms me once in a while. ![]() Nemesis did say he was suspicious of Subversion. If he's a real Detective then his Night Check would make sense since it follows up with him claiming he's suspect of Subversion right here. So with this in mind and no other role block claims I think it's best we lynch Subversion. Your analysis of me is laughable Ace. I'm the most outstanding figure in this game, I am pretty much singlehandedly responsible for orgolove's lynch, yet you say I never really take a stand? Here's a stand for you: Nemesis dies today, you die tomorrow. | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
On January 10 2011 05:55 Ace wrote: Mango take your vote off of Nemesis. It's majority lynch and you could end up costing us the game. If you think you may switch later take your vote off now. If you aren't sure DONT VOTE. Rofl ace, just switch your vote to subversion already and be done with it. Unless you're scared to be that obvious in case subversion really does show up? | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
On January 10 2011 06:04 Ace wrote: I can't vote remember? So if you are claiming you were responsible for Orgo's lynch, and appeared on another innocent lynch wagon then why should I believe you? I just quoted a post of yours where you said you don't really think myself or LSB are scum but don't exactly trust us. You say Nemesis is fishy but you didn't vote for him. That's wishy washy. If you believe you are the most outstanding figure in this game and we haven't caught any mafia then yea, I think it's safe to say I don't mind lynching you. If you can present a scenario where Subversion is telling the truth about being role blocked and Nemesis must be a fake DT then show it. @Mango: If your vote is there and someone else comes in and quickvotes then it's an instant lynch. That is false, it's not majority lynch ending day early or anything of the sort mango. Just like the previous nights, the votes will be tallied at day end and in the event of a tie, the person to receive the votes first gets lynched. Ace, you're now saying I should be lynched for being part of two bad lynches. First of all, in no way does being part of bad lynches make me scum, and second, I tried my best to prevent the beneather inactivity lynch when he showed up with 5minutes to go and posted. obvious scum tell amirite? | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
On January 10 2011 06:49 Ace wrote: Being part of 2 bad lynches doesn't mean you are Scum. Taken into account with everything else though I don't see how you aren't Scum. Everything else: -Took initiative to change the inactive town atmosphere -Tried to stop the beneather lynch at the last minute because of new information -applied pressure to various people (nemesis, ace, subversion, orgolove, beneather) who were not contributing or appeared questionable -expressed my thoughts fearlessly and frequently -attracted all manner of attention to myself Also if you wanted to prevent the beneather lynch because he was inactive then why didn't orgolove get the same treatment? I wanted to stop the beneather lynch because when he did post, he convinced me that he was a townie. Orgolove on the other hand was inactive but not afk, and nothing he did gave me any reason to believe he was town. Additionally, the only other lynch option yesterday was subversion. Would that have been better? Like I said before. If you can make a case for Subversion telling the truth about the roleblock and Nemesis lying about his DT claim I'm all ears. I already presented the case for nemesis being a lying scum. Show nested quote + On January 10 2011 05:23 aidnai wrote: ... There are only two options here. 1) Nemesis is telling the truth. -Nemesis/meapak are clear, subversion is scum. -subversion fake claimed the roleblock, there is no roleblocker -We are in setup 4: 2 Mafia Goon, 1 Detective, 6 Town -Either aidnai/KJ or Gmarshal/foolishness/mango are the remaining scum team. Problems: -Assuming Nemesis is really a DT, why not pick orgolove night one? why not pick me night two? -I don't believe Gmarshal et al are scum. -Doesn't explain Subversion's complete lack of interest in the game. or 2) Nemesis is lying -Scum team is pushing an easy lynch to finish us off -Subversion is an apathetic townie, he told the truth about his roleblock claim -With no blues claiming and a mafia roleblocker, we are in setup 2 -The remaining scum team is between aidnai/meapak/mango-gmarshal -most likely remaining scum is meapak (since nemesis tried to clear them, and other teams are likely greens) Problems: -why would scum do something so bold when they were doing just fine without a fakeclaim? It's almost certain one of subversion/aidnai would have been lynched today anyway. For me right now, it comes down to Gmarshal being town. That right there proves to me that nemesis is lying. Of course, I need to convince Gmarshal/mango and subversion that I am town as well. Have you been able to talk to foolishness yet? I feel weird tooting my own horn, but if I have to, I will go back and analyze myself to show I can't be mafia. ... On January 10 2011 06:53 Ace wrote: By the way if Nemesis is telling the truth then this exists: 2 Mafia Goon, 1 Detective, 6 Town. I already pointed this out -_- If he is telling the truth AND Subversion is also then this exists: If nemesis is telling the truth, Subversion is scum, extremely unlikely to have been roleblocked 1 Mafia Role Blocker, 1 Mafia Goon, 5 Town, 1 Medic, 1 Detective However no one has claimed medic and no one has counter-claimed DT. Subversion isn't here defending himself either. Why would you believe him over Nemesis? I think it's much more likely that a green will completely fail to show up to defend himself than a red. Unfortunately, neither of my lynch targets showed up yesterday... Don't you think it's something that no one else has been role blocked?no, it's pretty much expected whether subversion was telling the truth or not. Mafia would never confirm subversion's innocence by blocking someone else, especially since he's an easy lynch target. Otherwise you must be making the claim that Mafia figured out the setup a day ago and wanted to claim DT in advance or weren't afraid of a counter-claim. This also means they purposely wouldn't roleblock anyone again.Mafia didn't have to know the setup to figure out it's smarter to only block subversion or no one at all | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
Gmarshal -- this is for you when you get here. A HUGE issue for town right now is subversion being afk. If he doesn't show up and he is town, then the only way we get a town lynch done today is if we get our votes on a scum before they get their votes on us. Therefore, Gmarshal/Mango, I'm urging you to vote nemesis immediately, even if you aren't 100% convinced by what I say at the moment. If subversion really is scum, then town will be able to get a majority vote whether or not he shows up. If subversion is innocent, then it is imperative that we get our lynch votes ASAP. On January 10 2011 05:53 TheMango wrote: ##Vote Nemesis/Chaoser voting now in case it comes down to a tie, but this is not a 100% confirmed vote for me, I may switch before the day is up. On January 10 2011 05:54 TheMango wrote: I'll see if I can get in touch with gmarshall Please vote first, talk later for the reasons listed above. If I'm right, town is dead the moment meapak shows up. This is basically a race. I'll be around if you have questions. | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
So here's the issues you need to think through. Assuming that you (team 2) are not mafia, then you only have two options. Nemesis is DT: Subversion/aidnai for scum team. OR Nemesis is liar: Nemesis/meapak for scum team. There's no other possibilities, thanks to Nemesis' claim. All you have to do is decide is which combo it is. Subversion, just in case you do show up, 1) I hope you have a good reason for your activity level (but hopefully nothing horrible happened), and 2), I don't believe there's any rush for your vote, so take your time ask questions and decide well. Nemesis/Chaoser: 2 GMarshal (0.5) (safety vote) TheMango (0.5) (safety vote) aidnai Subversion: 1 Nemesis Not yet voted: Subversion, Meapak_ziphh | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
If Gmango comes to any conclusions (sorry just getting tired of typing both names), please post in the thread at the very least for the sake of subversion who may/may not show up to vote at some point. You guys have an advantage in having a few perspectives you can trust (3 man team I mean), so I trust you to get this one right. Be back later tonight. | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
If I throw out my assumption that team 2 is town, then I'm open to the possibility of a subversion/gmango scum team. Chaoser, I know subversion has looked pretty damn scummy. But scum try their best NOT to look scummy, and that's what's missing from the picture with Subversion. In any case, I made my earlier posts on the basis of reading gmango as green, not based on my read of subversion. Assuming you're really the DT, and you get your way today with lynching subversion: Who's next, me or gmango? It's not too early to talk about and it will help me think things through today. | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
Gmarshal - gonna have to agree with Ace that you should keep it simple. The kind of argument you went through is way too fragile. | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
Also, look me in the eyes and tell me you're town. | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
I'm gonna sleep on this one. see you all in the morning. | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
I am going to switch to subversion. But because it's irreversible if I do (unless subversion shows up, which I doubt), I'll still postpone changing my vote. | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
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aidnai
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
All the spam from the last page or two is hilarious, but kinda meaningless. So it all boils down to me? | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
The reason nemesis had to fake claim: Mafia wants to say subversion fake claimed role block, i.e. there isn't really a roleblocker. That means we're in a setup with 1 blue role. Where's the blue? they had to fake claim. Was hoping some team would come along and point this out, but nobody did. Still wanted to believe in ace/meapak, but I really can't now. Ace was all over LSB for his poor read of Ace's posts, but Ace's read of me was even worse. This has been a hard game for me to decipher, and if I turn out wrong my poor ego may never recover (actually it might be good for me). But in the end, I'm going to go with my analysis and trust myself one last time. I already voted, but it feels like I should say something epic but I can't think of anything. oh well. Let's see what happens next... | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
back to f5ing I guess... | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
On January 04 2011 07:13 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Show nested quote + On January 04 2011 06:36 aidnai wrote: EBWOP A few rules to clear up: Are we expected to stop communicating with our senior/junior partner if they are modkilled? Do we vote to lynch teams, or individuals? This game will have no modkills, I have decided it is pointless because both juniors and seniors are useless without the other. If you are inactive then its your loss on a learning experience and I will ban you from future boot camps. By joining this game and going inactive you steel someone elses opportunity to learn which is a dick move. I want to hear your excuse, subversion, but really, dick move. Was this just to prove that town will destroy itself if mafia just afk's? I wish the modkill rule hadn't been modified, would have saved us a lot of trouble this game... I guess I get the mafia's BFF award this game rofl. I'm gonna be bitter I think. | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
There was no easy, logical choice for me. I had to go with my analysis, and even though i practically begged people to help me see why mango/gmarshal were scum, nobody did an analysis of them either. I don't want to lay blame for the loss on anyone though. The truth is, my play was horribly flawed and there was a bunch of times I shoulda stayed quiet but was too paranoid to trust anyone else to make decisions for the town. Not to mention my analysis 'skills'. In the end though I had fun, so there's no reason to go around making people feel bad. Not as much fun as if I had won, but maybe I learned more this way. GG everyone. | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
as for what worked: -feeling comfortable being able to trust SOMEBODY -seeing the game through someone else's eyes really helps avoiding simple mistakes like tunneling or going off of bad scumtells. what didn't work: -too hard to coordinate schedules, I got very little back and forth with my partner (although in my past game with KJ I learned more than ever before or since thanks to his tutelage) -inactivity right off the bat while people try to coordinate -no modkills ![]() My advice for the future would be to help define the senior's role more clearly. Voting partner or not? are they expected to post? should their posts be limited? etc. I personally like Ace's stricter inactivity guidelines too i.e. post every 24 hours. Although that's a lot harder to enforce. | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
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