TL Mafia XXXIV: Pokemafia

On December 08 2010 03:55 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
lsb you are not eligible. you are in too many games. u must /out of either communist or HP mafia

A big problem in every mafia game is inactivity. I don't want another drag_ being able to squeak by with barely any posts. We should immediately show it is not okay to be inactive.

Inactive players hurt the town as they waste lynches down the road as the town will need to try to separate the mafia from the inactives.

We should therefore lynch an inactive day one. This will force the assassins to discuss and not be able to turtle, increasing the chance they will slip up.

On December 10 2010 07:42 Oceanic wrote:
Doesn't it say in 1 of the guides posted that lynching an inactive day 1 is not something you should do?

On December 10 2010 07:47 Kenpachi wrote:
Pikachu - Townie
Raichu - Miller
Chansey - Medic
Cloyster - Veteran
Alakazam - Detective
Electrode - Mad Hatter
Mew - Special Detective

Gengar - God Father
Koffing - Mafia Grunt
Weezing - Mafia Shrink

Mewtwo - 3rd Party Vigilante

notice how our only way of killing at night is Mad Hatter and 3rd party.. 3rd party is technically against us and will probably kill town over mafia due to immunity and their goal is to be last alive.

On December 10 2010 07:46 Amber[LighT] wrote:


Lynching an inactive typically results in lynching an apathetic townie. Everyone should be posting frequently to discuss who should die for day 1. There are no PM's so everything should be out in the open.

We should really worry less about how the blues should play. Thinks like role checks won't be overly reliable, and saving people cannot be discussed in the thread. It probably would be a good idea for the electrodes to think about where to place voltorbs and pick up on good scum tells.

On December 10 2010 09:16 jcarlsoniv wrote:
Also @LSB: I don't think we should say "we need to lynch inactives". While it may pressure scum to come out from hiding, I have seen it hit town more often than not. I think we need to deal with who is out and talking and giving us things to analyze rather than just blindly shooting into a room with a shotgun.

On December 10 2010 08:53 jcarlsoniv wrote:
@LSB: While trying to coordinate blues seems good, I have to say, the more games I play, the more I hate to see people directing blues in thread. On Day 1, I think they need to do what they think needs to be done without influence from the thread. Any direction from the thread can also be seen by scum, and thus they will be clued in as well. No, obviously, I know that the blues don't need to listen to what is said in the thread, but they will be influenced by what is said. Let's hope we have good blues this time around.

On December 10 2010 09:44 Node wrote:
I'm not entirely sure what your "plan" is, LSB. All you've said is that we need to "have a general system for how blues play" and that barring any glaringly scummy play we should lynch an inactive day 1. Could you be a little more specific?

On December 10 2010 07:43 LSB wrote:
One plan that would work is to use the blue roles to promote activity in the town.
The Alakazam should check the inactive people and the lurkers, as it is incredibly difficult if not impossible to tell the difference between a bored townie and a lurking mafia.
The Chansey's should protect active players, this way the mafia won't be able to take out the people who are contributing the most to town, so people won't be scared of trying to put forth their opinions.

On December 10 2010 09:43 Oceanic wrote:
Can someone explain how inactives are harmful for the town? I know it's an extra person for the detective to check but isn't it also an extra person scum needs to kill?

On December 10 2010 09:48 jcarlsoniv wrote:


I agree that we should point to inactives if we have no other leads, but I'm saying to not just say "ok, let's find the inactives" right away. We have 48 hours to find candidates for lynch, no reason to dismiss the possibility of finding one right off the bat.

I didn't say your plan was bad, seeing as you didn't really post a plan, nor did I say the word "plan" I was merely pointing out my own observations. What you had posted was good, it was vague, and a good general direction. Getting anymore specific than that at this point can be dangerous.




How can you possibly say this? The game literally just started, and we have 48 hours to scumhunt. Again, I am going to say, there is no reason to dismiss the idea of finding a lynch candidate Day 1.

On December 10 2010 10:02 d3_crescentia wrote:
48 hours is not a long time to find scum. Let's start now.

LSB's blue plan is pretty meh. It's not a good plan of attack for our Zams to check lurkers and inactives; they should be checking people who could be scum, including whoever is contributing the most. Keep in mind that all the mafia needs to do is to distract and confuse the town enough so that they make poor decisions.

On December 10 2010 10:06 Gabriel wrote:



Game started long before first day post. Interesting that you still defy chances: mafia takes some time to get in contact. Maybe you want to propose a lynch candidate right now? I actually have one right in front of me.

Edit to pretify

On December 10 2010 10:10 jcarlsoniv wrote:
You want to propose me as a lynch candidate because I am trying to generate discussion instead of being like "Oh yeah, ok, let's just jump on the plan to lynch inactives. See you guys in 2 days." No.

On December 10 2010 10:15 d3_crescentia wrote:

I'd rather we just kill the inactives. I think checking them is a waste.

On December 10 2010 10:19 jcarlsoniv wrote:


At the same time, DTs must be used to work towards lowering mafia KP too. Analysis is great, but it can only go so far before WIFOM kicks in and confirmation is needed.

On December 10 2010 10:26 jcarlsoniv wrote:


Well, here is my thought process. Wasting a lynch on an inactive sucks. However, I would prefer to use a lynch than a DT. Using a lynch is hit or miss, but it only wastes one action, while making more headway to finding scum with the DT. Using the DT on inactives pretty much wastes the DT if it is on town, while a lynch on a player is still a bit hit or miss (unless good analysis is done), and accidentally lynching an active townie would be more hurtful than an inactive townie.

I am hoping it does not come to this and that everyone contributes though. I would love for a game without a bagillion modkills.

On December 10 2010 10:31 d3_crescentia wrote:

This kind of happens every game.

On December 10 2010 10:34 jcarlsoniv wrote:


I would rather waste a Day 1 lynch than a Day 1 DT I feel. Day 1 lynches are tough. Definitely not impossible, but tough when everything is just starting out. Using a DT on someone who isn't going to even bother contributing wouldn't be worth it. Using DT checks on active members is definitely more important.

I'm a bit confused now though...You want to DT check inactives AND lynch inactives? That just seems like a waste of resources.

On December 10 2010 10:35 Hesmyrr wrote:

Chances of finding scum D2 > Chances of finding scum D1 always just purely on the basis that amount of information available will increase as the game progresses.

On December 10 2010 10:55 jcarlsoniv wrote:


Why?

On December 10 2010 11:22 Infundibulum wrote:


Oh i see, we were kinda using different contextual definitions. Yeah by inactive i was thinking of the people that just never show up, not the 1 post 1 vote lurkers.

In my experience most modkills happen during Day 1 or Day 2, a period during which it is difficult to distinguish true inactives from lurkers since they both exhibit similar behavior (i.e. very little). Lynching an 'inactive' Day 1 is always a nice neutral ground, but I feel that many people offer it as an excuse since they don't know what else to do (the same reason RNG always comes up, which is IMO worse than lynching inactives).

On December 10 2010 11:37 Amber[LighT] wrote:
I don't know if the inactive plan is really going to be good. This is why I figured the DT's should be smart enough to make their own decisions and post only when they come across something ground breaking.

On December 10 2010 12:35 Infundibulum wrote:
by the way new players should read this link:

http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=JEEP's_Tells_for_Finding_the_Cop

i would ignore the numbers part. there are some interesting articles on the mafia scum wiki, but do not take them as gospel. i gather that the playstyle over there is somewhat different.

On December 10 2010 11:12 Gabriel wrote:
I rather check the active player and lynch the inactive player. The active player right now is more likely to be +info in the future anyways, while the inactive is just... well... inactive. By the way one of the worst game aproachs is the "im noob just reading and getting used to play". If you are town you rather post something small but with actual meaning. I still have a decent target day 1 unless he posts a few more than oneliners. Inactives is also my treasure box.

I have a half decent target in the "im new guys" list. However right now i really want to flip Infundibulum because A) He came out of nowhere to dismiss lynching inactives (and that is really nonsense for a player that has played a lot of games) B) I cant believe jcarsoniv just posted a single Why? to LSB vote.

On December 11 2010 04:33 Infundibulum wrote:


I disagree with this, especially considering the wide range of time zones people are in on TL.

On December 11 2010 13:42 Insanious wrote:
Do we lynch Kenpachi for his posting habbits, Gab for his out burst, Infun for his previous actions, LSB for trying to be the head of the town, or you for just angrily, randomly, accusing people of being scum.

On December 11 2010 13:55 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
While I still feel like it's to early for full blown analysis posts simply because there hasn't been much to analyze yet I must say that Kav's post actually brings up some good points on LSB. I'd like to hear more in depth from LSB about who he thinks we should lynch because after reading Kav's post I'm actually rather confused as to what LSB want's to do.

On December 11 2010 14:39 tube wrote:
Look at his defense against Kav's [long] list of suspicions. He tries to answer for all of his posts by merely responding that they were all taken out of context. Nor does he even say what "specific purpose" any of those posts had. If those purposes were to answer questions, they had more of an effect of making him look like hes trying hard to come off as town. Though apparently we should see his purposes as "quiet obvious" to the point where he does not have to explain them. (or can't?)

On December 11 2010 22:48 Brocket wrote:
If you guys are gunning for kenpachi, then what about jcarlsoniv? It seems like they're a couple.

On December 12 2010 00:16 deconduo wrote:
There seems to be a case against zeks, gonna read over some of his posts now. Kenpachi has looked scummy in EVERY single game he plays. Seriously, he's impossible to read.

On December 13 2010 04:43 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
I bet 100 esports dollars that in Kenpachi's first game as mafia no one will lynch him.

On December 13 2010 05:43 Gabriel wrote:

Previous data from players is useless. Half decent players are able to get away with different playstyles. Im sure TL veterans dont look previous games unless there is a contradictory post from the accused in the active game (refered to the old game).

On December 13 2010 05:56 Node wrote:


I wouldn't say that. It might have saved Kenpachi's life had more people taken it into consideration. There are very few players able to completely posting style on a dime, and most of those that can (*cough* ace *cough*) are already known for it.

On December 13 2010 05:33 DarthThienAn wrote:
Eiii
[...]
Complete turnaround... starts the game off saying how he thinks Kenpachi is a bad poster. Then he changes his mind because Kenpachi continues posting poorly? Not to mention he's the last vote.

On December 13 2010 01:10 Brocket wrote:
Zeks and kenpachi, but kenpachi and jcarl seemed to back eachother up and focus attention on gabriel. In fact I thought if kenpachi turned out to be mafia, then jcarl would also be mafia so it was a sort of 2 for 1. People did put good arguments for zeks but because I didn't notice him much I didn't think about him, which I suppose makes the arguments against him stronger.

Feel free to look at what I've said. I've mostly just been looking at what people have been saying and then briefly looked at 'analyses' of what people said if you want to save yourself some time.

On December 13 2010 06:28 Gabriel wrote:

What? im not good at English but you just wrote:

What other games have I been scum in?

On August 03 2010 21:50 zeks wrote:
i'm gonna keep joining mafia games until i get a scum role

On December 13 2010 06:23 zeks wrote:


What other games have I been scum in?

On December 14 2010 10:47 Hesmyrr wrote:
Since I got that cleared up, I must apologize and ask for replacement since my schedule isn't turning out to be great, and I am pretty sure I don't have time to make much analyses (warned you guys when I signed up xD). Hopefully there are several names on the replacement list so I hope my decision doesn't hurt the game that much- seeing RoL's name on the list definitely makes me feel better about this.

On December 14 2010 23:47 d3_crescentia wrote:
The relative silence of the town bothers me, because it's just what mafia needs to win. The contribution of members named KtheZ, chaoser, deconduo, Insanious, ShoCkeyy, serApH, DCLXVI, Oceanic is virtually nil.

We need to spend our time finding by rooting through the list of semi-lurking voters and figure out which ones we want to kill and/or check. Gabriel's insistence on a zeks vote today is distracting, but the votes on him thus far aren't very well-explained either. LSB and Shockeyy need to explain themselves on this.

On December 12 2010 05:51 ShoCkeyy wrote:


Alright, I feel like kenpachi is getting way to agressive here. All his post have been aggressive and not helpful in anyway.

+ Show Spoiler +

When he starts saying, that why do people assume that he reads the rules, makes me question him. Everyone reads the rules and we know this because that's part of the game. If he's saying he doesn't that just seems phishy to me imo.

I also feel like, he posted the DT or Medic theory in order to try and get some people off of his case cause he can possibly be a TR member. I've seen this happen plenty of times where they pull out the "I might be a DT or Medic" and they end up not being it. My two cents, maybe I am wrong, but this is what I've been able to read off of.

On December 15 2010 04:34 ShoCkeyy wrote:


Well my reasoning on voting for Gabriel was because in the first round he dodged my vote by the way kenpachi was acting, but then seeing jcarl go now and both of them being Gabriels prime targets in the beginning kinda made me switch over to them. Either way, I find it funny that you only target a quite few of us when actually there is A LOT of people missing that are not posting at all. To name some more, Amber[Light], Tube?... Why don't you target them as well? I don't understand why would you just target a select few of us instead of them and then JUST target me right after wards. I've been busy and reading up on what I could and making my voice count when needed and voting when I needed to.

On December 15 2010 05:25 ShoCkeyy wrote:


How am I obvious? I voted for who I saw fit as well. What have I said that makes me so obvious scum? It's funny how I throw your name into the post and you so happen to come out of no where as well and just start pointing fingers at me. I'm throwing names around because he did miss a few people of course... Why will I get picked out of many when there is others he can also point at. I'm trying to stay as long as possible in this game and of course I have to defend myself, but I never pointed any fingers while defending myself. I guess me stating your name provoked you to start pointing fingers with out any reason as too. Grats, I'm changing my vote to Amber[Light].

Another thing, notice how d3_crescentia doesn't name Amber[Light] in his post and Votes for me when he has no reason to vote for me... But then I throw Amber[Light]'s name into my post and now Amber[Light] is ALSO voting for me. You guys are obvious enough that you both are teaming up against people trying to save the town. Obvious Scums are Obvious.

On December 15 2010 05:49 DoctorHelvetica wrote:

I won't modkill more than 3-4 players at a time but everyone who doesn't vote will be banned from future games.

On December 15 2010 10:31 kitaman27 wrote:


Same logic was used last game in salem which allowed Nemesis to slip through to the end. Lets not use that as an excuse to clear him.

On December 15 2010 10:37 kitaman27 wrote:


Why would our dts claimed unless they found reds? Even if they did, they wouldn't necessarily have to claim. Our medics would have to protect them each day and they are vulnerable if the medics are hit. That doesn't make sense.

On December 15 2010 10:42 kitaman27 wrote:


Huh? Calling for a double dt claim is sounding really scummy,,,,,

On December 15 2010 10:43 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Are you an idiot? I never voted Amber[Light] till he voted me... Can you actually read the thread before you spew more garbage out of your mouth? I only stated Amber because it's funny how d3 never mentioned him and quite a few others that never really post, but yet, I get mentioned... So of course I'm going to defend myself. I only pointed out that he never mentioned Amber[LighT]... Then all the sudden happy go lucky amber comes and calls me scum for no reason and then votes me. That's not weird at all, of course not, even though I never voted for amber. I only had mentioned his name as to why d3 never mentioned him either.

Different ShoCkeyy? I always defend myself in every mafia game I have always played, and funny thing is, last game I played was about a year ago and I was a medic. Nice one, everyone lynched the medic because he defended himself. Keep going down that road and watch the town die. And I'm actually helping the town by showing them the mafia circle that's going on between you, amber and d3.

I pushed ShoCkeyy because I agreed with D3 that we need to make the lurkers more visible.

On December 15 2010 10:43 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Are you an idiot? I never voted Amber[Light] till he voted me... Can you actually read the thread before you spew more garbage out of your mouth? I only stated Amber because it's funny how d3 never mentioned him and quite a few others that never really post, but yet, I get mentioned... So of course I'm going to defend myself. I only pointed out that he never mentioned Amber[LighT]... Then all the sudden happy go lucky amber comes and calls me scum for no reason and then votes me. That's not weird at all, of course not, even though I never voted for amber. I only had mentioned his name as to why d3 never mentioned him either.

Different ShoCkeyy? I always defend myself in every mafia game I have always played, and funny thing is, last game I played was about a year ago and I was a medic. Nice one, everyone lynched the medic because he defended himself. Keep going down that road and watch the town die. And I'm actually helping the town by showing them the mafia circle that's going on between you, amber and d3.

How does Zeks tie with me if he's green? I don't care for him, I cared for Gabriel in the beginning till Amber decided to burst his bubble because I told d3 he never mentioned amber. And this is a NO PM game. And even if I knew he was green, wouldn't that make me a DT?

Where was this agreeing? The only agreeing I saw between the two of you was to lynch inactives, unless you guys are pming each other or talking to each other through other means (which only mafia can do this)

On December 16 2010 00:28 ShoCkeyy wrote:


That's the thing, i didn't fall into anything, unless you d3 and lsb planned to mention my name and try calling me out (which is why d3 never mentioned you). Then i only so happened to mention your name, not even paint you as scum and you were way to quick on protecting yourself and painting me as scum. That in it self says scum all over it. And you still haven't given a good reason as to why i am scum yet, you just keep saying im scum and to vote for me...

On December 15 2010 05:47 LSB wrote:

I agree that we should be going through the list of semi-lurking voters. And I agree with Amber[Light]'s analysis of Shockey.

On December 15 2010 23:27 Brocket wrote:
I am more interested in defenders of Gabriel and players FoSing Shockey than Gabriel and Shockeyy now. I'm not feeling as intense on Gabe as I felt over day 2 but I'm thinking that's cos he hasn't been talking much. Maybe if he posts more it'll reignite my burning passion to lynch him out.

People springing to mind:

LSB (really quick change vote from gabe to shockey and muddied the anti gabe arguments, didn't offer much on zeks even though zeks earned compelling arguments).

On December 12 2010 00:36 LSB wrote:

Zeks pretty scummy from what I remember in other games. Then again he was SK.

I've voting for Kenpachi because I don't like how immediately he got strong support from Jcarlsoniv, and how lots of people ignored what Gabriel was talking about, and immediatly jumped the bandwagon.

On December 13 2010 06:32 LSB wrote:


Anyone else remember this?


Zeks hasn't joined Team Mafia yet!

(Most illigit lynch ever, but hey... could be slipup)



By Scummy I mean that you sound like scum, even though you may be town

The games I've played with you
RAM: Zeks was inactive, non-comittal
Harry Potter Mafia: Zeks has done nothing to contribute to the town and only talks about his own mayoral campagain.
PYP2retty scummy from what I remember
TL Mafia XXX: I dunno, I died quiet early. Glares at Infun

On December 15 2010 10:30 LSB wrote:
All right. If Zeks flips green. Take note of this. If he's red, I will eat my words.

The issue today that I don't want to lynch Zeks. We're falling with the same trap with lynching Kenpachi. They play like this all the time. Lynching zeks would just be like doing a random pick. However, mafia always has a hand in RNG.

I pushed ShoCkeyy because I agreed with D3 that we need to make the lurkers more visible. Amber[Light]'s response was not only OMGUS. He was well justified. Lurker pops up. Randomly votes Amber[Light], tries to hide.

So, rather than voting Gabriel, I decided that ShoCkeyy is the better lynch. And after a few observations heres a few things I found

Firstly: ShoCkeyy just flat out lurked:
He had one post day one that did nothing but explain that "his vote really wasn't a vote"
+ Show Spoiler [First post] +

+ Show Spoiler [Night one] +

Secondly
ShoCkeyy has been incredibly self centered. He does nothing but protect himself and justify

However. every single one of his posts today were either defending himself, or attacking the people questioning him.
Instead of not taking a position. ShoCkey starts going all out, accusing everyone. Doing anything he can to try to not become lynched. This is completely different from the ShoCkeyy we know.

This could be an overdefensive townie. But far more likely it is a mafia trying not to attract attention day 1.

Thirdly: ShoCkeyy had made no mention of Zeks.
This is the most important subject today, and he still hasn't talked about Zeks? ShoCkeyy is obviously cutting ties because he knows that Zeks is green.
+ Show Spoiler +

On December 16 2010 09:38 seRapH wrote:

I'm vigi and I night hit you obv.

If mafia or mewtwo does end up killing you though, I claim no responsibility >.>

On December 15 2010 09:31 DarthThienAn wrote:
I agree that BB has been pretty useless this game. But do you guys think he's mafia? I don't want to just lynch another useless/inactive townie zzz.

On December 15 2010 06:51 DarthThienAn wrote:
I voted zeks, because I think he's the best chance of being mafia of the people we have now. I also haven't read the last couple pages cuz I'm busy, but I want to point out deconduo again... I'm not sure he said anything this game --useful-- other than giving a reason for his vote.

On December 15 2010 07:31 Pandain wrote:
Alright hai everyone, I'm here. And I haven't fully caught up yet but I think I would just like to share some of my thoughts.

1.I do not believe Gabriel is scum.
Why would a mafia be SO active day 1, and even more so. Rather than just chillaxing in the back and letting town go vs town, he's actually actively trying to find scum. Now, what I find interesting is that if he was scum, then
1.Why haven't his scum buddies reigned him in at all.
2.Why does he keep making such long posts on day 1, which is really the best day since mafia can go afk basically.
It just doesn't make sense for gabriel to be mafia. There is still a slight chance that he is, but that is overshadowed by the likes of Seraph, zeks, and DXCVILL for instance, all of those who have been "contributing without contributing"(save zeks recently.)

If we do lynch zeks, not only do we lynch a potential scum, but if he flips mafia then the 11-12 outcome on day 1 will immensely help us with scum hunting. That's only a side bonus, but it is a point worth noting.
Furthormore, town needs to broaden its perspectives. It is too late to go after these, but I am posting these here, those who have been "contributing without really contributing."
In the interest of time I shall just post one, but there are others who I shall bring up as well.
Seraph
+ Show Spoiler +
But first, can someone just link me like a post or tell me exactly why zeks is a good lynch suspect.

On December 16 2010 11:09 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Holy shit, I was so wrong about amber O_O.... Now the town is really fucked, we have to lynch the right person within this next day, meaning mewtwo if we even want to survive this at all...

On December 16 2010 12:36 d3_crescentia wrote:
I took the fourth hit.

On December 17 2010 02:56 Kavdragon wrote:


In my opinion, Scummy play is play that benefits the Mafia, but not the town. Bad play is play that benefits the Mafia, AND the town. Good play is play that benefits the town, and not mafia.

This asks the next question. What benefits the mafia, and Town?

Town benefits from good analysis and discussion of suspects, with some emphasis on civility.
Mafia benefits from everything that gets in the way of good discussion and analysis. (I.e, Spam, Bashing, etc...)

I'd like to hear other's opinions though. Especially yours.

On December 16 2010 16:39 Brocket wrote:
Satisfactory analyses, well done gentlemen.

DCLXVI even bought attention to himself about the two voters against him being eliminated via analysing insanious. So it's a sign of honesty but the fact is still suss. I'm still not trusting Gabe because of kenpachi+ jcarl.

d3 hasn't been very consistent, that much is true. Why is it that townies seem to crumble when they are accused, you've got nothing to hide, don't make things worse by blurting out names and getting unnecessarily offended by accusation.

On December 15 2010 10:30 LSB wrote:
All right. If Zeks flips green. Take note of this. If he's red, I will eat my words.

The issue today that I don't want to lynch Zeks. We're falling with the same trap with lynching Kenpachi. They play like this all the time. Lynching zeks would just be like doing a random pick. However, mafia always has a hand in RNG.

I pushed ShoCkeyy because I agreed with D3 that we need to make the lurkers more visible. Amber[Light]'s response was not only OMGUS. He was well justified. Lurker pops up. Randomly votes Amber[Light], tries to hide.

So, rather than voting Gabriel, I decided that ShoCkeyy is the better lynch. And after a few observations heres a few things I found

Firstly: ShoCkeyy just flat out lurked:
He had one post day one that did nothing but explain that "his vote really wasn't a vote"
+ Show Spoiler [First post] +

+ Show Spoiler [Night one] +

Secondly
ShoCkeyy has been incredibly self centered. He does nothing but protect himself and justify

However. every single one of his posts today were either defending himself, or attacking the people questioning him.
Instead of not taking a position. ShoCkey starts going all out, accusing everyone. Doing anything he can to try to not become lynched. This is completely different from the ShoCkeyy we know.

This could be an overdefensive townie. But far more likely it is a mafia trying not to attract attention day 1.

Thirdly: ShoCkeyy had made no mention of Zeks.
This is the most important subject today, and he still hasn't talked about Zeks? ShoCkeyy is obviously cutting ties because he knows that Zeks is green.
+ Show Spoiler +

On December 15 2010 11:46 LSB wrote:
ShoCkey Previous Game Analysis
Caller's Red Army Mafyia: Role: Medic Posted 99% one liners. Got angry and warned for flaming.

Mafia XVI: Role: Townie: Takes positions, especially on Xelin. Defends himself mostly civily. Mostly one-liners.
+ Show Spoiler +

And one more that Shockeyy left out
TL Mafia XVIII: Role: Mafia: Shockey was under heavy clue suspicion. He responded mostly civilly. However, most noticeably Shockey has essentially only one post that isn't either spam or defending himself (included below). Shockey shys away from taking any positions, besides defending himself.
+ Show Spoiler +

Do you agree? Or any objections?

Now that we know both kenpachi and zeks were green, we can predict the voting pattern of the mafia on the first day.
It makes sense for the mafia to not switch votes at the last second, mainly because they know both lynch candidates were town, and that switching votes would put the FoS on them.
I personally think that the mafia manipulated the voting so that there would be a close tie between the two candidates, thus FoSing people who change the vote. Basically, I think the most mafia are within the 3rd to 7th votes on the lynchees day one. (A better method would be to look at the vote timestamps)

The reason I brought this up is because this evidence may be

On December 17 2010 11:21 d3_crescentia wrote:

If we don't have two good lynch targets, then it's a waste and shortens the town day count by 1, IF we continue to miss lynches. And with our track record so far, that's pretty likely. The point of discussion here should be if we have two good targets, i.e. are any of myself/DCLXVI/Shockeyy/Gabriel worth being lynched? There also is the case of if we can find Mewtwo, whom if we lynch buys us another day.

On December 17 2010 12:00 d3_crescentia wrote:
Take this list and analyze the person that is immediately below you. Since I am at the bottom of the list I'll wrap things around and do deconduo. Use DECISIVE language in your posts; either say YES this person is scum and here's why or NO this person is not. Then the person who is TWO above you should analyze your analysis. This should get things rolling.

On December 17 2010 12:07 d3_crescentia wrote:

I agree that Town KP > Mafia KP. It only has twice the likelihood if we pick at random. I don't have any confidence in this town's ability to find scum, given our overall track record and participation thus far. I don't understand what you mean by "it basically denies the mafia a night."

On December 17 2010 12:22 d3_crescentia wrote:

I trust mafia to kill people that are trying to be active in helping the town. Would you have the town go to RNG now? If everyone is more active and more aggressive in their play, then there would be more information available for analysis and (I think) a better chance at catching scum. Maybe picking 2-3 people for everyone to analyze is better; maybe not. Maybe I'm just retardedly wrong.

On December 18 2010 02:54 deconduo wrote:


Not to make excuses or anything, but I'm having a lot more fun in the Harry Potter game. Having no PMs is a bit crippling for me as I've found out in this game, as I do a load of work through them normally. I'll make an effort to contribute a bit more though.

On December 18 2010 04:23 GGQ wrote:


Care to explain who they are then?

On December 15 2010 04:34 ShoCkeyy wrote:


Well my reasoning on voting for Gabriel was because in the first round he dodged my vote by the way kenpachi was acting, but then seeing jcarl go now and both of them being Gabriels prime targets in the beginning kinda made me switch over to them. Either way, I find it funny that you only target a quite few of us when actually there is A LOT of people missing that are not posting at all. To name some more, Amber[Light], Tube?... Why don't you target them as well? I don't understand why would you just target a select few of us instead of them and then JUST target me right after wards. I've been busy and reading up on what I could and making my voice count when needed and voting when I needed to.

On December 15 2010 23:27 Brocket wrote:
I am more interested in defenders of Gabriel and players FoSing Shockey than Gabriel and Shockeyy now. I'm not feeling as intense on Gabe as I felt over day 2 but I'm thinking that's cos he hasn't been talking much. Maybe if he posts more it'll reignite my burning passion to lynch him out.

People springing to mind:

LSB (really quick change vote from gabe to shockey and muddied the anti gabe arguments, didn't offer much on zeks even though zeks earned compelling arguments).

Oceania &Seraph (said to death, lack of posts and jumping on teh wagon. I don't think much about posters like these but even I noticed a lack of posts from Oceania and Seraph. It's way too easy to sit back and vote, you got to get in the game if you want to stay).

Amber (really quick on voting Shockeyy, way too quick especially when we were already divided about zeks and gabriel. d3 has distanced himself from you and i think lsb will plan to as well.)

But I'm going to let other people talk now. I feel like my posts have made some people shy away from posting their ideas/opinions which isn't good. Please post something you think has happened or looks strange.

As far as me voting myself: I will vote myself if suspicion falls on me and you guys want to confirm I'm a townie. I already said that I believed zeks/gabe were mafia and I'm already half wrong.

On December 18 2010 04:28 Brocket wrote:
BROCKET HAS ARRIVED.

EVENTS that townies should give a shit about:

D3 claims to be mewtwo. Town is COOL with this. WE LOVE m2. Why? Because if townies lose then m2 loses at this stage since zero mafia are dead. Also Mafia have zero ways of killing m2 except by vote. Look at this. LOOK AT IT.



d3_crescentia
DCLXVI
Kavdragon
Eiii
BrownBear
deconduo


You must vote one of these guys. Any of them. Shockeyy could be the 6th but not sure.

My suggestion is, hop onto the god damn DC wagon or else I'm going to suss you out next, got it?
##VOTE double lynch. ##Vote DCLXVI. You KNOW it makes sense. Make the mafia fail in killing m2, kill a mafia, get 2 lynches for next day. Why the hell would you NOT do it and spread our votes between shockeyy, gabe, LSB. What the fuck?

Get with the program pikachus. HRRRRRRNNNGGGGHHH.

On December 18 2010 22:45 Brocket wrote:
I said DC was mafia for 2 reasons. He had 2 previous accusers killed off and he started the d3 bandwagon. Yet somehow it's my fault for his actions? What? Is it getting through that accusers of DC in previous nights have been killed? 2 of them?

On December 18 2010 09:44 Brocket wrote:
@ LSB:

I'm not sure about shockeyy but DC and gabe have been suss. Don't you think there's sufficient evidence against DC too?

It makes no sense voting d3 if we know he took the hit. If he's not a vet he's mewtwo. In either case the mafia want to save up a night kill by lynching him. Does it not make sense then to avoid that by lynching? We can use a mewtwo.

Kind of sad if shockey turns out to be a medic but if you are still compelled go ahead and vote him. I'd rather see shockeyy go than d3 at this point. My vote is still on DC.

On December 18 2010 18:19 Node wrote:
Sorry for the lack of posts lately, between finals, flying across the country, and being at home where much of the time the only internet is the EDGE network from my phone, I've been having a hard time keeping up with mafia. Here are my thoughts at the moment.

I really think that the best place to look for mafia at the moment is the people that voted for d3. Eiii, BrownBear, Shockeyy, and DCL all left their votes on him, and I consider all of them to be scum or quite scummy. People should notice BrownBear in particular more, as it seems like he's flipped scum in all of these games where he has been very inactive and only occasionally chimes in with not much in particular.

On December 18 2010 04:28 Brocket wrote:
BROCKET HAS ARRIVED.

EVENTS that townies should give a shit about:

D3 claims to be mewtwo. Town is COOL with this. WE LOVE m2. Why? Because if townies lose then m2 loses at this stage since zero mafia are dead. Also Mafia have zero ways of killing m2 except by vote. Look at this. LOOK AT IT.



d3_crescentia
DCLXVI
Kavdragon
Eiii
BrownBear
deconduo


You must vote one of these guys. Any of them. Shockeyy could be the 6th but not sure.

My suggestion is, hop onto the god damn DC wagon or else I'm going to suss you out next, got it?
##VOTE double lynch. ##Vote DCLXVI. You KNOW it makes sense. Make the mafia fail in killing m2, kill a mafia, get 2 lynches for next day. Why the hell would you NOT do it and spread our votes between shockeyy, gabe, LSB. What the fuck?

Get with the program pikachus. HRRRRRRNNNGGGGHHH.

On December 19 2010 03:00 Kavdragon wrote:
LSB: You expect Mafia to RB you? Why? If there is a chance that you will die, we need to know what information you have. If it means posting it right before the end of the night, then so be it, but please, don't die with information that can benefit the town.

On December 19 2010 02:48 Brocket wrote:
When did I defend shockey or believe him?

I just said it'll be unfortunate if shockey turned up medic after he claimed medic. I didn't ever say I believed him. Seriously quote me. Please. And when did I defend Shockey?

,
I told you guys to go ahead to vote Shockey, it's even in the damn post you quoted me saying. I personally chose DC because like gabe he has gone under the radar due to shit storms. I still think DC is scummy. Am I not allowed to think that when I have said multiple times that DC eliminated people accusing him and I thought he was a scummy target for eliminating his targets and trying to get rid of m2. Am I not right in saying if d3 is mewtwo then we can use him as townie? He gave up the game when he admitted it. He can't win until more mafia are dead.

On December 19 2010 02:58 Brocket wrote:
Let me refit the context as well while I'm at it.

day 2: zeks+ gabe were on the chopping block. Amber+ d3+ lsb decide to vote shockey. Amber points out some things, sure. d3 just obligingly agrees and lsb quickly hops on with no in depth 'analysis'. We said that it wasn't good for the town when zeks + gabe were good enough votes and that we'd discuss shockey on the following day which you guys refused to do.

We get the discussion necessary for shockey and we reach a suitable conclusion day 3. I stuck by my guns and I still stand by my vote on DC and hold residual suspicion on gabe. I also stand by my decision to keep d3. That's all I've done up to this point since day 2 and day 3. Tell me now if I've done anything wrong.

On December 19 2010 05:24 d3_crescentia wrote:
I don't have any suspects and am going to rest a bit more from driving all day today/yesterday. I'm going to kill brocket tonight, as I think that's the only course of action where it's possible for me to win. Well, not the only one, but it reveals the most info.

I think it's time for a mass roleclaim once the day post is up.

On December 19 2010 13:19 Node wrote:


Are you sure that's wise, seeing as all of the medics are presumably dead?

On December 19 2010 16:13 DCLXVI wrote:
Also, how did you manage to determine d3 was SK and get him to claim?

On December 19 2010 12:38 LSB wrote:
Day 4: 8/5/1

Miss Both
Night 4:6/5/1. Mafia Victory

Hit one, miss one
Night 4: 7/4/1
(If miss mafia) Day 5:4/4/1 LYLO
(If hit mafia) Day 5:5/3/1 Advantageous to not Double lynch

Hit two mafia
Night 4:8/3/1
(If miss mafia) Day 5:5/3/1 Advantageous to not Double lynch
(If hit mafia) Day 5:6/2/1 Very close to victory

On December 19 2010 20:00 Eiii wrote:
I've been lurking recently because after reading through the thread each day, I just haven't found myself with any reason to post. You guys gave me a reason this time around, though..

...because today I learned that either I'm miller or node is scum! Given how fragile the current situation is I'm more inclined to believe node is just lying and trying to throw off our double lynch to all but secure a mafia victory. DC's actions recently don't make him look 100% clean, but neither do node's-- plus, I don't think it's totally believable that a dt would be lucky enough to hit mafia twice on his first two tries. :/

On December 10 2010 13:03 dinmsab wrote:
Imo, I think it's inevitable to lynch inactives. I'm an amateur at this but in my last game I was mafia and I tried to stay low. So yeah, from my perspective inactives might be mafia, worse case scenario they're just bored pikachus. So not much harm there. Although if we have solid leads and clues on active players, I believe that should take priority.

On December 19 2010 16:52 Gabriel wrote:

I have the strongest feeling that he is mafia because i played a game with him (i joined the mafia later in the game). In few words he just doesnt post at all (i think it was mafia resurrection with bc as host, i played under malongo id).
Iif you look at his voting pattern he has been an early voter both times, hinting that he doesnt want to die to a modkill but that he is not interested into posting (he has like 3 posts). More than anything voting just too early for a bandwagonably (if thats a word) player (Gabriel).
Now it is pretty clear that he is not blue and it doesnt make sense for him to be green. He is the kind of player that just afk in that case without voting.

On December 19 2010 15:45 Gabriel wrote:

Wait. You had a bomb on shockeyy and me when shockeyy died. Why didnt you redirect the lynch on you at that stage? You could have roleclaimed at that time to clean up shockeyy and me protecting the SK that was helping the town. Never thought of it?

On December 20 2010 05:36 Infundibulum wrote:


I don't know. I kind of agree with deconduo (who has popped out of the woodwork here) that Node's claim doesn't make much since from a mafia perspective. They are in a strong position right now and don't need to risk much, unless they're going for style. I dunno Node's meta though so IDK if he's the kind of player that does those sort of things.

What you say also makes sense though. Node's story is VERY convenient. Remember Pandain's "checks" from the Insane mafia game where he lied about very convenient checks? I get the same vibe from the checks Node says he made. Also did Node claim he was roleblocked before this post? If I was roleblocked I'd probably claim ASAP, since it gives the town information.

I'm undecided on this as of yet but either way Node lying doesn't help his case here.

I think we also need to look at inactives - BrownBear, Oceanic, chaoser, are names that have been bugging me.

On December 20 2010 08:12 BrownBear wrote:


I disagree with you, but then, I'm biased against town alliances w/ 3rd parties. They never work out well for anyone.

Personally, my view is that if we know who MewTwo is, we should lynch him. End of story.

On December 20 2010 08:29 BrownBear wrote:


Mewtwo has failed to net us a single TR kill so far. I highly doubt that he will.

Lets say we lynch a TR and Mewtwo today. That will put us, after night kills, at 7 to 4.

Now, let's say we lynch 2 TRs today, That's 2 kills from them, then a kill from Mewtwo which will put us at either 7 to 3 or 6 to 3. However, that's relying on Mewtwo to actually hit a TR - something I highly doubt will happen.

Or how about 1 TR, 1 Town. We have 8 town to 4 TR and mewtwo left, that's 4 nightkills, unless we get HUGELY lucky, we could be put in a 4-4 situation where we'd be absolutely fucked.

We're basically in LYLO at this point, we need to kill off the anti-town players we know. And we know d3 is anti-town.

On December 20 2010 14:38 d3_crescentia wrote:
You guys make it sound like I'm some sort of bad puppy.

The more I think about it the more I'm convinced Shockeyy was a sacrifice made by the mafia. Shockeyy himself gave us no leads anywhere, and if I recall no one really stepped up to defend him. Without the modkills yesterday we could've been at 12/5/1, which means you could have afforded to lynch me and some other dude that the mafia would have drawn you to, and then hopefully take the game at 8/5. But then there were the modkills, so things have changed.

I think that Shockeyy's vote list has to contain a few mafia, though it's quite possible they just split their vote between our three candidates yesterday. Note that Oceanic and dinmsab both had single votes for themselves/Gabriel respectively. Quite frankly I'm more than willing to buy that they're town - or at least, put our focus elsewhere for the time being. Did Shockeyy's death give anyone any more credibility? LSB's voted Shockeyy on Day 2, so I am thinking that should clear him as town-ish. It leaves Gabriel, deconduo, KtheZ, GGQ and Infundibulum as targets for analysis.

This would make Node most likely to be mafia, should the mafia have actually split their votes. The Node/DCLXVI conversation points to Node being more likely mafia as well. Unfortunately as mentioned I'm not sure that mafia need to risk another player at this point in time. If he dies blue today we may need to reconsider DCLXVI for tonight.

We have DCLXVI, Kavdragon, Eiii, Brownbear and Shockeyy on me yesterday. Shockeyy was scum as we found out; Kavdragon is likely town and Eiii is questionable. DCLXVI's fate is tied with Node's in my view.

As for Brownbear, if he was town and so vehemently believed that an alliance would be unfruitful, he should have been pushing for my lynch harder yesterday, because the town will be in LYLO no matter what happens to me today.

Again, this is dependent on the logic of Shockeyy being sacrificed, because I think he could have easily kept silent and let the town flounder a little longer without a target.

On December 22 2010 15:58 Node wrote:
Son of a bitch. I was technically correct with my false claim, but I managed to get the Gengar. I need to learn to pursue these things more -- trust my gut, stick to my guns, push what I believe and damn the consequences. The one game I really did that in (assassin in the palace) it won me the game. If I had done so this time, I may have been able to get two TR lynched. :p

Reading kingjames' post reminded me of something I heard somewhere: Poker isn't a card game, it's a betting game. On the same note, Mafia is a game of manipulation, not a game of voting / roles / etc.

On December 22 2010 16:49 DCLXVI wrote:
@LSB
I can't believe you actually bought my electrode claim

On December 22 2010 22:28 Amber[LighT] wrote:


"my shockeyy lynch"

Lol.