EPTTeam Melee Mini Mafia II
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On August 20 2010 05:49 Qatol wrote: It isn't looking like this game will start in time for me. /out Don't do it!!! if Infun and I can both find teamates will we only need 1 more... | ||
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Examine Metal Object. Look under Metal Object Examine Timer | ||
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Now that we have a no lynch,it needs to be today if we use it. Normally I don't favor a no lynch but it might be ok in this situation. The reason I say that is that we still get 2 lyches, if we lynch wrong 2-5 Night Kill 2-4 (LYLO) Lynch Wrong 2-3 Night Kill 2-2 Mafia WIn No lynch 2-6 Night Kill 2-5 Miss Lynch 2-4 Night kill 2-3 (LYLO) Miss lynch 2-2 (Mafia Win) The value I see in a no lynch is that we end up with these two chances and a kill to base our lynches off of. 2/7 and 2/5 With a kill tonight we still have lylo after 2 lynches but our first lynch isn't made off of a kill and we have these chances: 2/8 and 2/6 Of course this could be changed if we have power roles but I am putting forth the worst case scenario as an example. While do lose the benefit of discussion on a lynch target today we still get 2 lynches to discuss and we get today's lynch/no lynch discussion. We also get extra time since we have an additional day to discuss and we get 2 mafia hits before Lylo instead of 1 to help us pick right. | ||
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I played SC2 all yesterday so thats why I didn't get much done in this thread. sorry Regarding the slip up, I don't think we should bandwagon on it but I think we shouldn't dismiss it either. In PYP DTA slipped up day one by mentioning exactly how many members there were and it was forgotten. While the makes assumptions the mafia knows it to be true, so even though that game DTA was defended since everyone assumed there were 4 mafia they would have been less likely to say it being as they at least a little bit know that things could be slightly different. That said I don't even know that this is a slip up since for it to be one then both players would have to be scum. It seems he is replying tho the BB's insinuated accusation that since the post is bad he is scum. Pyrr says well he doesn't post any better when he is town. So I guess the TLDR would be that we shouldn't weight it too heavy but keep it in mind and if one is red the other is more likely to be red as well. | ||
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Its ok, Ace is your partner, he is suppose to PM you. + Show Spoiler + j/k I assume it was some one else PMing you I think it is a good point that we can use the no lynch tomorrow to get the extra time if today's fails. Now I think this is slightly worse since today's lynch would be less informed. What this means is that we should proceed with a lynch today, and then shortly before the deadline review all players and see if the leading group is scummy enough. It is still a shot in the dark we no lynch, if the evidence is good we lynch and then no-lynch tomorrow if we were wrong. | ||
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Also there is only a 25% chance of us having both but a 50% chance of having a DT which makes the no lynch even better | ||
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Rereading the thread and catching up on what happened since I went to bed. Just wanted to be sure I don't forget to vote and get mod killed. | ||
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On September 24 2010 08:35 BrownBear wrote: This is extremely dangerous, simply because if we fail we essentially enter into LYLO. No matter who it is, if we misslynch it goes to LYLO, why do you feel that this plan is more dangerous than any other? | ||
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On September 26 2010 10:51 Incognito wrote: Oops [Vote]Team 3 You just said you were going to vote for team 1, mind clarifying why you switched over without stating a reason. I talked with Foolishness and while I am not sure I believe your claim I think team 6 is the safer lynch. [Vote]Team 6 | ||
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of the 3v1 for lynch 1 or 2 are 100% confirmed (depends on if you save yourself or someone else). I know confirmed people aren't everything but it makes the job much easier, the mafia certainly don't want that to happen. Obviously you are way ahead of me on this but these are the 2 most likely to be mafia (with team 2 most likely) 1. LSB and Pyrrhuloxia 2. bumatlarge, Divinek, and SouthRawrea Assuming you are the medic, and because our teams worked together for this lynch then we are the most likely townies: 3. rastaban and Foolishness 8. Infundibulum and Incognito Mafia doesn't want to hit the other person in the first category since it makes them much more obvious. so the hit is most beneficial for them if they go for 3 or 8. | ||
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On September 29 2010 04:58 SouthRawrea wrote: What's stopping mafia from NKing tonight and increasing their chances of winning tomorrow because we have no choice but to lynch? You're being too naive. I don't even know what you are meaning with this. If they don't hit then it is like our medic had 100% success stopping them. What I was doing was giving advice on how the mafia is thinking about the hit, if they don't hit at all then obviously it doesn't matter who is protected. Sure the mafia could pull there hit but do you really think they would do that? The huge problem with that is that if they pull their hit then and lynch wrong, there is a 1/3 chance that the town medic blocks the hit and it is game. and really only a 1/2 chance if we are certain who the mafia is. If do you really think the mafia will try and gamble on a strategy that nearly has a built in 50% chance of losing....  | ||
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On September 30 2010 02:37 Divinek wrote: i was just hoping rasta was gonna pull out another analysis pegging me as mafia again so we could have an easy free mafa lynch. o well im playing different in this game just because i generally feel lazier and the players involved in this game are pretty boring lol so there's no point in flaring things up. Why go out of my way to make big long posts when people are making them for me, especially when most of what they say agrees with my line of thinking as i go through the thread? yeah it's pretty sheepish and looks bad, but i really do need to establish a lazy townie image for in future games when im mob and then i can say look i played shittily as town too! lol i keep decent tabs on people i just never care to post them, that's why pm games are so much more fun. oh bummian where for art thou damn what a contentless post, ya lets lynch them team 2 jokers LOL, you discovered my favorite past time, framing Div. Hey to be fair you weren't innocent when I did it as town  I am really surprised that team i&i suspects my Foolishness and I. Foolishness has been working hardcore as town. The mafia obviously is between team 1 and 2 but it is hard to pinpoint which it is right now. Both have good arguments against them. I have to admit though, Foolishness' arguments towards team 2 seems pretty good. All the votes immediately on team 1 surprised me though as i thought most peopel agreed 2 should be next. | ||
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On September 30 2010 12:43 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: The chance of Incog faking medic is basically nil. No way they hold off on a hit just to do that. The medic is a huge threat to the mafia and they would love to have him dead. It's all wifom mind games since the mafia can think "incog will probably protect himself so we can freely kill someone else, but incog will know that and try to prot someone else since we know he claims to have tried that before, so we should hit incog." Doesn't implicate anyone. Team 2: I thought they were mafia for pushing all innocent lynches but they did help kill Team 6, although less than Team 3. That said, a bus at that point would have totally made sense given how many people were against Team 6. Team 3: If my intuition that one of Incog and Foolishness is mafia is correct, it would have to be Foolishness at this point rather than Incog as I had thought. I think Incog has this same gut feeling too, but the case he's pushing is all complicated wifom when Team 2 seems like the choice that follow Occam's Razor. Team 2 jumped the early bandwagon on us and now is following the confirmed innocent team onto another team. They also split up their votes the previous day. I agree Rastaban has been too inactive but Divinek admits he is doing the same thing. Both teams are making apologies I would deem suspicious except that Incog's team did the same thing the day before. Vote Team 2 I knew I would be busy so I stopped signing up for games, I signed up for this one a long time ago and kind of thought it was dead in the water, all of a sudden a lot of people show up and it was too late. I really owe Foolishness an apology as I am the one who asked him to play in the first place as my team mate but I haven't had the time to collaborate with him. That said he has done a good job on his own spearheading the last lynch on team 6 so I there is little reason to doubt him. Unless he changes his analysis I assume he still thinks Team 2 is the mafia so... [VOTE] Team 2 | ||
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On September 30 2010 19:05 Divinek wrote: Reasons each team would try to hit team 8 Team1: Stupid?? Or hoping that people might try to go one level beyond and think 'well since incognito said he was for sure going to vote for us we'll kill him and people won't think we'd do something so obvious to kill someone attacking us.' But it draws alot suspicion to them since he was attacking them + given their 'scummy' like play that made them more stuck out to everyone else. Team2: Suicidal, retarded, blah blah. We're obviously the most suspect team, and thankfully someone decent at this game understands the rational despite our shitty play that we are most probably not mafia. Seriously killing incognito gains us nothing and only hurts us, we'd have been far better off hitting any OTHER team, would get us alot closer to a win if mafia team3: They probably have the most to gain. Incognito cleared them as town, so if they hit him it might seem to not make 'sense' given that he has cleared them. That AND they were the first people on the team 6 wagon and they would know that when their obviously suspect team mate flips red they would get pro town points on top of incognito putting folishness' name in bold and green. Obviously one of the other teams pushing for us is mafia, and the other team is just having a bit harder time seeing the light through our shoddy play. I disagree with this. Until incognito started tossing WIFOM all over the place us and team 8 were though townies. This is evidenced by your whole team including you having your vote on the other team while team 1 has there vote on you. ALL we would have to do is kill one of you and boom the other is immediately though the mafia team. Hitting Us or Incog is smart play though if you are team 1 or 2 since you leave the other suspect team alive. Obviously we are not confirmed but I am somewhat amazed incognito is going for us. I thought his analysis was tiers above ours but it shows hindsight is 50/50. I see now why so many people talk about when balancing a game if you have 2 top people in a game even when they are both town they try to kill each other off (probably because it is harder to read) I don't get where Foolishness is acting different though, Go look at the PM game we played together, he played almost the same as this game. in the end the mafia does reside in team 1 or 2, I think 2 makes the most logical sense. | ||
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On October 02 2010 03:37 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: First time for everything, I guess? Except it's correct, so what's the problem? Well played pyrr, lets see if they can guess your hit tonight | ||
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As for LSB messing up, maybe he did but they lost due to 2 hits being blocked and not do to town voting them out when we could have so I don't know that I would call there actions a mistake. Maybe they were but the incorrect lynches were more of a mistake than anything LSB's team did. | ||
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LOL, that is great. I think Mafia would have won this if they had followed through on Chez's plan On February 18 2010 12:18 Chezinu wrote: I would hit the remaining townie. If he is protected I would roleclaim medic to the remaining townie and convince him that I'm the true medic. I obvious caught the last guy. Then I would spam GG mafia throughout the thread to sound convincing. I would be like taunt taunt taunt!!! It would be fun... | ||
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