EPTStrategic modkills are NOT allowed, either.
So no. Terrible one potential confirm (second mason) died. I'll do a quick check up to see what to do. Also chez, young already checked BM O.O
Godfather Mafia - Page 83
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Hesmyrr
Canada5776 Posts
So no. Terrible one potential confirm (second mason) died. I'll do a quick check up to see what to do. Also chez, young already checked BM O.O | ||
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zeks
Canada1068 Posts
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rastaban
United States2294 Posts
That gives us this list 1. Chezinu - Dream Catcher/Hatter No counter claim ~75% confirmed 4. zeks - Mason (No counter claim - confirmed) 5. Thegilaboy (BloodyC0bbler) - Townie/Mafia 7. Bill Murray - Jailer/ Vet (DT confirmed) 10. DCLXVI - Townie/Mafia 11. Hesmyrr - jailed by BM 2 nights in a row (N1 recruit possibility but very slim statistically 95% confirmed if BM is town) 12. youngminii - DT (No counter claim, gave us GF - confirmed) 19. rastaban - Townie/Mafia Possibles: 5. Thegilaboy (BloodyC0bbler) - Townie/Mafia 10. DCLXVI - Townie/Mafia 19. rastaban - Townie/Mafia If DT checks BC as is the plan then if he is town we can double lynch DC and myself, if he is red then we get a confirmed mafia and can decide if it is better to go for a double lynch and and investigate the last one or not. If BM Jails YoungMini then we are guaranteed at least these 2 DT checks so we should be fine. I think this is pretty much the plan everyone is already stating so I am not realy adding much I just wanted to fact check it and make sure that it works out. If I was wrong and DCLXVI is confirmed then this should be even quicker. | ||
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rastaban
United States2294 Posts
worst case right now is 5/2 after night kill, I think we got one mafia with the 3 that just died so probably 6/1 we have to kill at least 1 mafia tomorrow if we didn't get 1 tonight. lets say worse case, that chez is mafia after 2x lynch tomorrow we would have 4/1 and then 3/1 after night kill. which would be enough to hang Chez if we were wrong about him. The only way this doesn't work is if zekz, BM, youngminii, are the goons. If that is so then we probably have already lost. | ||
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Hesmyrr
Canada5776 Posts
youngminii, Bill Murray, zeks, Hesmyrr Unconfirmed Chezinu (Mad Hatter), BloodyC0bbler, DCLXVI, rastaban [b]A5J, if zeks were indeed banking on your death and wrote your name down to frame you as second mason upon your death, write "skez" as your death post. If you confirm zeks write "mason". youngminii investigates BloodyC0bbler, Chezinu switches one of his bomb to someone that is NOT BloodyC0bbler or likely confirmed Townies. Also the town was being stupid and failed to attain majority needed for double lynch. We can only lynch single player tomorrow. I am SO angry about that. If BC doesn't turn out to be scum and jailkeeper dies, we end up at: 5-2 [b]Likely Confirmed youngminii, BloodyC0bbler, zeks, Hesmyrr Unconfirmed Chezinu (Mad Hatter), DCLXVI, rastaban [/i] | ||
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Hesmyrr
Canada5776 Posts
Likely Confirmed youngminii, BloodyC0bbler, zeks, DCLXVI, Hesmyrr Unconfirmed Chezinu (Mad Hatter), rastaban DCLXVI is clear because he was roleblocked and the kill still occured. Godfather immediately died thereafter following day. So Chezinu, switch your bomb to rastaban or just withdraw one that is on Likely Confirmed players if you already did. | ||
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Hesmyrr
Canada5776 Posts
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rastaban
United States2294 Posts
I think the plan can still work as long as we get vote 2x lynch tomorrow. worse case say you hang me and C and D are mafia you would have 4-2, and then 3-2 the next day after night kills. execute both of them and it should be a win (plus you could DT someone else as well just in case.) We just have to make sure that the double lynch goes through. | ||
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rastaban
United States2294 Posts
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Hesmyrr
Canada5776 Posts
YOUNGMINII investigates BloodyC0bbler BILL MURRAY jails youngminii CHEZINU switches his bomb to rastaban, and if he already has his bomb on rastaban, switch his second bomb to me (Hesmyrr). zeks is CLEAR because the A5J proved he was not recruited by BrownBear's death, which can only be explained by Mad Hatter. Thus if A5J writes "Mason" as the death post, then zek is 100% confirmed. DCLXVI is CLEAR because he was roleblocked yet kill still occured; the Godfather died following day so he couldn't have been recruited thereafter. | ||
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Hesmyrr
Canada5776 Posts
On July 13 2010 01:14 rastaban wrote: why are you listing zeks as doubtful? to me he has the strongest claim of anyone, darth pointed out in the card selection method that we have 2 masons and 2 lovers. There is no way we still have 2 masons who never claimed. Just realized that and adjusted my plan accordingly. As long as A5J replies "Mason" it will be clear and peachy. In the end Chezinu, you, and me are the only one unconfirmed. | ||
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rastaban
United States2294 Posts
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Hesmyrr
Canada5776 Posts
 YOUNGMINII investigates BloodyC0bbler BILL MURRAY jails youngminii CHEZINU switches his bomb to rastaban, and if he already has his bomb on rastaban, switch his second bomb to me (Hesmyrr). zeks is CLEAR because the A5J proved he was not recruited by BrownBear's death, which can only be explained by Mad Hatter. Thus if A5J writes "Mason" as the death post, then zek is 100% confirmed. DCLXVI is CLEAR because he was roleblocked yet kill still occured; the Godfather died following day so he couldn't have been recruited thereafter. | ||
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rastaban
United States2294 Posts
5 are left tomorrow: youngminii, zeks, DCLXVI, BM DTed: BloodyC0bbler They can then lynch BC if he is mafia. once again the only way it should fail is if Young is a goon. The plan seems solid. | ||
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Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
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rastaban
United States2294 Posts
On July 13 2010 03:24 Bill Murray wrote: don't know why people are saying hesmyrr is 95% or something. he could have been recruited night 0 statistically, the odds of him being recruited on night 0 are 1/19. 1/19 = just a fraction over 5% which means he had a 94.xxx% chance of not being recruited. We also know that L was recruited either night 1 or night 0, if L was night 0 then there is a 100% chance he wasn't recruited. so he either 100% townie or 95% townie, if you combine those you actually get an even higher chance he is townie. Now of course based on his playstyle and citizens recruit methods that number could change due to personal preference, but statistically speaking these numbers are right. | ||
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rastaban
United States2294 Posts
Chance he was recruited: 1/19 = 5.263% Chance he is townie 18/19 = 94.74% because 1 out of 19 people were recruited meaning 18 ot of 19 people were townie then I think we should still be wary, but 94.74% are the kind of odds I like. | ||
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zeks
Canada1068 Posts
Wait so BM is vet + jk? | ||
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rastaban
United States2294 Posts
On July 13 2010 04:23 zeks wrote: If we analyze L's posting behaviour we should be able to tell whether he got recruited 0 or 1. If we come to a conclusion that he was recruited at night 1 we lynch Hesmyrr. Wait so BM is vet + jk? The problem is that L was traitor, so regardless of when he was recruited his posts should have had the same agenda, the winning of the mafia. BM is most likely JK, or someone out there is. I think he is claiming vet sometimes to confuse the mafia from targeting him. We know he is blue so that should be good enough, if he is jk then the vet is probably hidden, if he is vet then jk is still hidden. as long as the jk keeps youngminii alive to night we should have a town win regardless of if, they his the jk tonight. | ||
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zeks
Canada1068 Posts
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