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TL Mafia XXVI

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
May 28 2010 01:43 GMT
#39
Sign me up!
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 03 2010 03:46 GMT
#185
Characteristics of Incognito/BC still count as clues right? These connections may be farfetched, but here goes my contribution as far as the clues go:

Based on this part: "Incognito the Pardoner, through his tremendous intuition, had sensed that something was to go down last night. Whilst in his office finishing his work, he deflected no less than five assassination attempts, ranging from sniffing poison in his coffee cup to leaping out of the
way from a thrown knife while walking down the hallway. Dedicated and passionate to his job,
Incognito would not let any threat deter him from furthering the prosperity of the town."

Zeks profile has a pic of Shikamaru, who in the series is known for being extremely
intelligent/intuitive. AcrossFiveJulys' profile has the quote "obstacles in life are like
weights in the gym..." which could possibly relate to the dedication and passion of Incognito.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 03 2010 04:03 GMT
#189
On June 03 2010 12:57 MooCow wrote:
Can a mafia member be voted in as mayor?

I think so. If YellowInk was mayor then it would be impossible for a rolecheck.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 03 2010 05:49 GMT
#233
Yeah, I completely underestimated the amount of activity for this game+the amount of documentation it'd take to keep it all straight. Guess that's what summer's for! I'll be working on it/posting more tomorrow.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 03 2010 22:15 GMT
#287
On June 04 2010 06:49 YellowInk wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 04 2010 06:22 MTF wrote:
2. The stance that having a Mafia member in office is not so bad for town just because of an increased likelihood of being discovered is a faulty one. The Mayor has three votes, protection from Mafia hits, and the ability to become a mouthpiece for town. Eliminating that for town (as well as silencing an outspoken townie upon election, if one were that ballsy) for one Mafioso, who doesn't even reduce KP from their death, isn't too bad of an idea. Not a brilliant idea, mind. But, also certainly not a terrible one.


I claim that it's an increased likelihood of being discovered for me in particular. If I were mafia and there's this thing out there that's a clue pointing at my face, I make a bad mayoral candidate because I'll be discovered. As a part of team mafia, I'd much rather let one who is not suspected make a run for office. (see previous post for more elaborate explanation)

Also, the mayor is really only a mouthpiece for the town if people trust him. Mayors do hold a lot of power - the crux of the matter is that they typically do not hold a lot of trust. I believe that because of my position with respect to the clue it will cause more people to be more trusting of me once I can be publicly cleaned (if they're not already convinced just by my campaign).

Show nested quote +
There needs to be more of a reason to vote for you. So far you have shown yourself to be intelligent and reasonable, which is good, but pushing hard for the vote simply based off of self-implied innocence is not going to work.


I don't expect people to vote for me simply based on self-implied innocence. While hopefully this is weighted into your thoughts since the risk vs reward implies that I am town, it's not the only thing I have going for me. My original reason for deciding to run was because of the obvious clue pointing at me. This puts me in the unique position of being able to create a position of both power and strong trustworthiness in the mid game - a truly effective mayor.

At this point I believe you are town, but I'm still a little wary of your tactics so far. There's still a possibility you are Mafia, and you're using the fact that the most obvious clue from the opening day post pointed to you to your advantage - you would be outed eventually because of it, so why not cause a blow to the town before you go down by taking the mayor out of the game, as well as wasting possibly all the detective's actions for the first day on finding you out.

Also, like others, I'm a little disturbed at your aggression in pushing for yourself as mayor. Coupled with the glaring clue pointing towards you, that's why I voted for Darth. He could be mafia, but he's not associated with any clues as of yet, and he seems pretty clean from his posts. Hopefully that's a genuine sign that he's a town and not just skill picked up from playing multiple games.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 04 2010 01:06 GMT
#309
On June 04 2010 09:01 LunarDestiny wrote:
People, I made a mafia war excel checklist for you guys. You don't have to use it. But if you are lazy to make one, then you might want to get it.

Download Link

Awesome thanks <3. I had already made a partial list myself, but I haven't finished it yet. This is much better!
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 05 2010 04:09 GMT
#502
Sorry for my inactivity in the last couple days as well - today especially I've been around but super fucking tired due to lack of sleep (trying to get my sleep schedule back in tune and failing at it) so I've been avoiding any real analysis/posting in the game :x
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 05 2010 06:10 GMT
#510
Can't all this active hyping hurt the town though? Everyone keeps saying the most active people are probably townies, since mafia members don't want to draw attention to themselves and risk getting outed, but I mean, this is a game of deception after all.

What if the Mafia/the GF (the godfather especially benefits from staying active and putting on a townie facade, right?) are keeping active in this game and it's helping them? We've already taken down one town member, probably simply because he was inexperienced with the game. I know I am.

I think all of us should be more careful before we decide who we vote for lynching as well as who the blue roles help/hurt.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 05 2010 16:38 GMT
#532
On June 05 2010 15:24 DarthThienAn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 05 2010 15:10 littlechava wrote:
Can't all this active hyping hurt the town though? Everyone keeps saying the most active people are probably townies, since mafia members don't want to draw attention to themselves and risk getting outed, but I mean, this is a game of deception after all.

What if the Mafia/the GF (the godfather especially benefits from staying active and putting on a townie facade, right?) are keeping active in this game and it's helping them? We've already taken down one town member, probably simply because he was inexperienced with the game. I know I am.

I think all of us should be more careful before we decide who we vote for lynching as well as who the blue roles help/hurt.


The more active = the more prone to error and slipups = good for town.
The more active = the better I (and everyone else) can read you (and everyone else)
The more active = the more thinking and planning and organization gets done.

No one's saying that activity = pro-town. If any has, it's more like, "his activity combined with the pro-town feel of his posts..." etc.


I'll speak from experience - mafia inherently have less incentive to be active and post. First of all, they don't want to post a lot and help the town. They want to skate by unnoticed, and kill people silently at night. This is why we call out anyone who seems inactive, ever. Others do the "I'm pro-town" scheme early, and then fade away.

Either way, we as town want to force mafia to speak up more so that they can slip up and are forced to either make bad logic, or give up their own members.

If the mafia/GF are being really active, then we need to step up and match them. Read: TOWN BE MORE ACTIVE PLZ. Seriously, I mean 24 brains >>> 6 brains right? No one wins mafia games alone. The town has an advantage in that we (ideally) have 24 people thinking for us, whereas they have 6, and those 6 are limited.

We took down an inactive member who was probably inexperienced BECAUSE he didn't do what we told him to. It would've been easy for him to, as town, just post "I voted for myself because... I'm symbolically abstaining" and then post whatever else is relevant. Him not posting hurt the town. Doing nothing doesn't do nothing to the town, it hurts it. Everyone got it?

And, we're always careful about who we lynch. Yellow and I gave our reasoning as to why we lynched jiabung - if you disagreed you should have proposed someone else / spoken up much sooner. If anyone has a good idea, of course we'll take it. Until then, you're leaving it on us "active" people to do all the thinking, which sucks for me personally at least.

Well, I didn't disagree, so I shouldn't really be complaining now. It's just that hindsight is 20/20 etc.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 05 2010 18:17 GMT
#555
On June 06 2010 02:52 onihunter wrote:
I don't think the strict posting policy that YellowInk is a good idea. Yes, getting people more active about this game is a good thing. However, artificially stimulating it like this just doesn't seem very helpful nor good for the spirit of the game. People can easily get by posting vague thoughts on random people, and it just doesn't seem right to me to FORCE people to post. It's a game after all, not a homework assignment.

Instead, letting new players who are currently pretty inactive individually adopt this policy if they wish to seems better. If the new player has a set goal every day, then he will probably encourage himself to post more and be more aware of his own activity level. I think YellowInk's idea should be a guideline, not a hard rule.

I'll post some thoughts on the actual game when stuff occurs to me.

I was under the impression it was definitely a guideline - just one that if you don't follow you'll eventually get lynched if you aren't doing anything (until we find more appropriate people to lynch).

I think the rule is a good idea, and it'll push people who have been active and reading but just too intimidated to post much into more activity (a category I feel I fall under). It will, like others have said, separate those who don't care from those who do.

Hopefully these "vague thoughts" don't reflect badly on me now

On June 06 2010 03:10 sputnik.theory wrote:
I've noticed that a quite a few players (including me) have been called out for not posting too much on day1 and in our defence, I'd just like to point out that there's only so much that can be said at the start of the game. I'll be posting more as the game develops and there's actually things to talk about.

I agree with this, especialy in the last few pages. Most of the posts haven't been about much other than getting the inactives to post more. That's why the rule is so important for people to start following though - even during the beginning we can still be analyzing peoples thought processes and personalities.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 06 2010 04:18 GMT
#648
Like MTF said, they were probably just trying to take out as many townies as possible, not accounting for the fact that MTF would get saved, by aiming for low post counts. MTF has only 11 posts which fits into the low post count range, and as some others have mentioned in the thread, when he has posted he's said some thoughtful things.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 06 2010 04:26 GMT
#650
Also, about the defenestration clue, I'm not sure it's actually related to anyone's profile. You may just have thought that because there's a guy on TL named defenestration (or defenestrate, I forget).
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 06 2010 04:49 GMT
#652
A few (weak) clues that no one has caught yet:

Zyrre: has a quote from Day[9] - "Let's gut this puppy!" Gut could relate to the stabbing, combined with his lack of activity this could mean something.

Deucegladlier: Has a picture of a girl with "BOOK!" on her shirt. This could relate to the library, where barth was killed. Pretty farfetched I know, but he is also pretty inactive.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 06 2010 05:20 GMT
#655
On June 06 2010 14:00 bumatlarge wrote:
Not really pickin up on clues very well, but i do see more bloody knife play that people can be connected too i guess, like hugo playing as spy in tf2 or those zealot/DT pics everyone already mentioned.

I noticed Hugo as well for the spy thing. I haven't played TF2, just popped out because spies are obviously sneaky/stealthy.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 06 2010 05:58 GMT
#658
On June 06 2010 14:44 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 06 2010 13:47 Thegilaboy wrote:
Damn this badass profile pic, causing me more trouble than good! Although I don't think much blood stays on a psi/warp blade, it does certainly look like I am a prime suspect. Unfortunate for me, seeing as I know I'm clean, and for the town.

But I'll focus on the clues for now, and see what I can do to help the town while I still can.

Death 1: Very ninja like, a clean assassination. I suppose look for individuals who have profiles pointing towards being stealthy, and handy with a knife (and that includes me, I know)

Death 2: A weight, so look for clues that have to do with mass. AFJ references weights in his profile. I suppose the mention of "nothing standing in the way of overwhelming power" in Icysoul's profile matches someone barreling the victim out of the window. CompX's mention of a tiny stone giant match as well.

That's what I've got for now, I'll be taking a better look soon.


Whoa whoa overreacting a little bit aren't you? Day has just begun and no one has voted for you.

Trying to find very vague pointers to other people (me for example) to divert attention away from yourself also immediately after the clue was posted is highly suspect.

No need to get defensive about it. I think everyone knows that clue connections are pretty weak in general, and always need to be taken with a grain of salt. Still, they should be pointed out.

That said, Thegilaboy has actually been voted for already, and it doesn't seem like such a terrible choice since he's one of the few with multiple clues pointing towards him. If I was going to vote based solely on clues, I'd be voting for either Thegilaboy or zeks.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 06 2010 06:39 GMT
#663
On June 06 2010 15:16 DCLXVI wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 06 2010 14:58 littlechava wrote:
That said, Thegilaboy has actually been voted for already, and it doesn't seem like such a terrible choice since he's one of the few with multiple clues pointing towards him. If I was going to vote based solely on clues, I'd be voting for either Thegilaboy or zeks.

Well if we hang him and he turns out to be townie, then we should hang you. It seems quite suspicious to accuse someone that quickly and try to bring down suspicion on him. At least try to list out a few possible clue connections and scum sounding posts/actions before accusing active people like that.

Did you notice the part where I said "If I was going to vote based solely on clues"?
And really? Try to list out a few possible clue connections? Pretty much every clue post so far has mentioned Thegilaboy.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 06 2010 06:39 GMT
#664
Also, I haven't voted for Thegilaboy yet, LaXerCannon has. I'm holding my vote until later.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 06 2010 07:13 GMT
#669
On June 06 2010 16:03 DCLXVI wrote:
Well many of the "clues" that people are making connections to I find to be far fetched. I think that trying to hang someone off the clues is a bad idea and either some stronger connections should be made or we should focus more on reading into what people say and wait for more "clues". Granted ignoring information is a bad idea, I just think that right now we could get farther by reading into what people say since they should be posting more.
And by every post mentioning TheGilaBoy you mean everyone posting "DTs in his profile!" or the fortress-barricade "connection" which is about the townies, not the killer... yes really, please list a few. The only other plausible one I find is the gila monster - poison one.

-Really LaXerCannon? do you just want to take the heat off you that you vote 40 hours early? What could possibly have made you make up your mind so quickly about this?

I think that trying to hang someone off of clues is a bad idea as well. Good job on completely ignoring the first part of my post that you quoted, where I said "I think everyone knows that clue connections are pretty weak in general, and always need to be taken with a grain of salt. Still, they should be pointed out." So basically, you're agreeing with what I said while trying to thrust suspicion onto me. Wtf?
Also, yes, the posts that mention clues regarding Thegilaboy mention Dark Templar. That is because Dark Templar are sneaky and kill quickly. The fact that they're sneaky and kill quickly connects them to the clues in the day 2 post. Nowhere in my post about clues did I say "Thegilaboy is definitely mafia and we should lynch him".
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 06 2010 18:04 GMT
#687
On June 07 2010 00:59 zeks wrote:
Sorry for the lack of posting lately, was out for the whole night. Should have more time tonight.

Nice to see the increase in activity from people, especially the hard work everyones been putting on clue analysis. The clue analysis actually tells us more than the clues itself.

Just wanted to add that in past games the godfather has usually chosen to be a Townie or Veteran.

So far we've lost 3 townies (not bad, not the best either) but if we start losing blue roles we can start pointing fingers to the elected roles.

Obviously the elected roles shouldn't be given a free pass, but that doesn't mean a blue role dying has anything to do with them. There are multiple blue roles, and they probably haven't all roleclaimed to the elected roles. Even if they had, it could be pure luck on the Mafia's part to nab a blue role.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 06 2010 18:19 GMT
#689
A few impressions since Day 2 started:

crate - Nice analysis in my opinion. Doesn't rely on clues like everyone else pretty much has so far, myself included. I agree with his opinions on both onihunter, who has struck me as pretty neutral so far, and AcrossFiveJulys, who has had clues matched up to him as well. I feel like he's pretty certainly town.

Hugoboss21 - Clue linked to his TF2 spy thing, been inactive this entire game, with zero posts since Day 2 started. If we're still trying to get inactives out of the game, he's a good choice for lynching.

LaXerCannon - Voted for Thegilaboy almost immediately after he was linked to clues. His reasoning was that he wanted to vote based solely on clues, which is fishy given how nebulous the clues are in general, as well as the fact that we hadn't even fleshed all the clue connections out at that point.

Zyrre - Has became more active since Day 2 began. I don't agree with his interpretation of Misder being suspicious, since Misder has seemed pretty harmless so far in my opinion, but otherwise he seems like a fair minded guy.



Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 06 2010 19:06 GMT
#693
On June 07 2010 03:58 crate wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 07 2010 03:08 YellowInk wrote:
Whoever you are, be sure to claim at least to him since you know he's town (the vigs couldn't hit on night 1).

I'm not sure what you're suggesting here.

He's suggesting that the medic who saved MTF come out and tell MTF that he's a blue role/they're both on the same side. Questionable tactic though, since MTF probably wouldn't be able to trust the guy - it could just be some mafia member trying to gain his trust. MTF has no way of verifying whether the person PMing him actually saved him.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 06 2010 19:11 GMT
#695
On June 07 2010 04:05 sputnik.theory wrote:
The ElyAs hit seems suspicious to me. It has already been brought up that a scum outrunning ElyAs and not killing him as they passed seems unrealistic. How could he have enough time to sit down on the courthouse steps and wait for ElyAs to come around at full speed? One possible explanation that has been offered has been that the scum in question could 'blink'. Here's another:
It could be possible that two scum were involved in the death of ElyAs. One to follow him and chase him to the courthouse and another waiting in ambush there to kill him. At night, it's not hard for two masked men to look the same. Additionally, we actually have two players that 'look the same' playing in this game as MooCow and Tyranos_Nivek have identical profiles. The implications of such a double hit would be that MTF is lying about being targeted on night1.
I am not convinced that the theory above is what actually took place but it seems to be a possibility.

That'd be a pretty complex ploy. Has something like this ever happened in past games?

What would it really accomplish though? If no medic saved MTF, obviously no medic would roleclaim to him either. MTF would have suspicion cast away from him, but afaik there wasn't much on him in the first place, and one single townie can't do very much right?
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 06 2010 22:55 GMT
#730
I guess voting for deucegladlier is a good idea then, since he clearly doesn't care about the game? Shame if he's a townie, but he's useless either way :\

I've already said it, but I think Hugoboss21 falls into the inactive category and should be added to YellowInk's list of Tyranos/deucegladlier/CompX for possible lynch targets.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 06 2010 23:56 GMT
#739
You can also just look up someones post history now. Example: crate
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 07 2010 03:24 GMT
#785
Seems sensible to me. If deuce doesn't give a fuck now, he probably won't but hopefully the pressure of being lynched will force him to change if he is indeed a townie.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 07 2010 06:29 GMT
#801
On June 07 2010 12:15 DCLXVI wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 07 2010 11:27 pyr0ma5ta wrote:
On June 07 2010 11:21 BrownBear wrote:
On June 07 2010 11:17 pyr0ma5ta wrote:
I am just reminding you (and more importantly, the rest of the town) that if things turn out poorly, to remember where this terrible idea came from.



You are the only person who thinks it's a bad idea, and you are one of the people indicted by the statement. Until someone who isn't one of the four people mentioned comes out and posts, I'm not really inclined to listen to you whine about how an idea to lynch you is a bad idea, especially given your evidence so far (LD is right, voting is traditionally all over the place and random, so large groups of people voting together is suspicious.)


1) Read
2) Interpret
3) Post

I'm not whining. Re-read my posts. Use math. When 17 people vote for Darth, what's the probability that a couple of them will also vote for the same person the next round when there are only 2 poeple being voted for? mmmkthx.

I feel like a bloody broken record. I'm not trying to change his mind, as I've conceded he's allowed to vote as he chooses. I'm pointing out a particularly horrible line of logic that is likely to point 3 future lynches at, well, people who happen to have similar sleep schedules.

Don't worry about it, you can't please everyone. Some people will just pretend to read your posts or purposely misinterpret what you say (I'm looking at you littlechava)
Oh, another one of your incredible analyses posted I see.
Let's take a look back at our discourse:
On June 06 2010 15:16 DCLXVI wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 06 2010 14:58 littlechava wrote:
That said, Thegilaboy has actually been voted for already, and it doesn't seem like such a terrible choice since he's one of the few with multiple clues pointing towards him. If I was going to vote based solely on clues, I'd be voting for either Thegilaboy or zeks.

Well if we hang him and he turns out to be townie, then we should hang you. It seems quite suspicious to accuse someone that quickly and try to bring down suspicion on him. At least try to list out a few possible clue connections and scum sounding posts/actions before accusing active people like that.

Okay, so you ignore the first half of my post where I say we shouldn't hang based on clues. Then, you go on to say that *if* we hang based on clues, the next target should be myself, for no good reason other than the fact that I, among others, have pointed out that Thegilaboy and zeks have had clues point towards them.

Do you mind pointing out the other posts where I "ignore" or "purposely pretend to read and misinterpret what you say"? You mean like, the post where you agree with what I say, while still disagreeing with me, then go on to say I'm disagreeing with you? (WTF?)
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 07 2010 16:27 GMT
#843
On June 07 2010 18:46 DarthThienAn wrote:
@littlechava: deep breaths, don't get too offended by stuff on the internet ^^.

Yeah, I was drunk when I posted that...
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 07 2010 18:07 GMT
#856
On June 08 2010 02:49 DCLXVI wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 08 2010 01:27 littlechava wrote:
On June 07 2010 18:46 DarthThienAn wrote:
@littlechava: deep breaths, don't get too offended by stuff on the internet ^^.

Yeah, I was drunk when I posted that...

No wonder you still misinterpreted my posts again :|
I don't think that it is worth bringing back up this argument: I know I'm right, you think you are, and it gains us nothing to continue arguing.

Nah, I'm still right. All you've done is make a couple garbage posts calling me out, which I then defended. Then you keep bring it up again whenever possible, without refuting anything that I've said.

@onihunter:
I'm not against YellowInk or Thegilaboy at this point.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 07 2010 19:34 GMT
#878
On June 08 2010 03:41 DCLXVI wrote:
yes I noticed, but you said "Thegilaboy has actually been voted for already, and it doesn't seem like such a terrible choice", saying that you would be ok for voting for him on a basis outside of clues or you think that the clues are enough evidence.


No. That's not what it was saying. Reread my post. It was all about clues. I didn't think clues were enough evidence. That's why I said that.

as I said before: yes I noticed, but you said "Thegilaboy has actually been voted for already, and it doesn't seem like such a terrible choice", saying that you would be ok for voting for him on a basis outside of clues (which you do not present) or you think that the clues are enough evidence. So I do not agree with you. Nice response to my "where are the clues, please" - stating one weak clue. You don't even try to bring up scum sounding posts by TGB so your entire argument is based of clues... And finally, you did not say "Thegilaboy is definitely mafia and we should lynch him" but you said "Thegilaboy has actually been voted for already, and it doesn't seem like such a terrible choice". As in, we could vote for TGB because he has some clues pointing to him (and by that you mean one weak clue)


Yes, that post was obviously based on clues. That was the whole point. There is more than one clue linking to Thegilaboy. Day 1: Poison. Day 2: DT. MTM's post doesn't rule anything out. We don't know exactly how the clues are going to relate to people.

Let me clarify for you what the first post meant.
First part: Clues may be weak, but need to be pointed out.
Second part: If voting based on clues, Thegilaboy makes sense.

I will accept that saying it wasn't such a terrible choice was wrong, since voting so rashly is a pretty bad idea.

Tip: threatening to lynch people at the drop of a hat is also a pretty bad idea.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 08 2010 02:11 GMT
#995
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 08 2010 02:12 GMT
#998
How the fuck can you be inactive as the vigilante. That's the coolest role there is.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 08 2010 03:17 GMT
#1017
Brief analysis of zeks' posting since Day 2:
#679 Explanation for inactivity. Says clue analysis tells more than the actual clues. Claims that if we lose blue roles, we should start looking towards the elected roles as being guilty parties.

#737 Is against double lynch. Asks if PMs are different for a vet save vs a medic save.

#758 Says we should consider how organized the mafia are. How could we possibly know this? Tries to shunt attention off of deucegladlier by saying the rest of the mafia would stop him from being an idiot. Says he'd rather lynch a "middle of the pack" poster than someone who is inactive, even if the "middle of the pack" poster is a neutral figure.

#818 Argues against lynching inactives.

#820 Argues against early voting/"bandwagoning"

#823 Says he's "sort of okay with lynching deuce tonight"

#834 Says YellowInk and Darth seem like townies right now, but he assures us all that when problems occur they'll be "the first on the chopping block"

#838 Says if MooCow gets lynched and is red, he'd have more faith in the elected roles, because MooCow was trying to undermine them. Jumps onto AFJ's bandwagon.

#840 Explains that we should be aware of the piggybacking/bandwagoning/echoing of "middle of the line" posters.

#876 Outlines three points about Deuce probably being green: he hasn't stood up for himself, one sided votes, and a bandwagon (a fairly obvious one!).

#905 Gives more reasons we shouldn't lynch inactives. Says we should lynch MooCow instead, because we have more information on him, and he's been acting weird lately. Doesn't actually provide his own analysis of this weird behavior of MooCow.

#915 Argues that the original MooCow bandwagon aren't mafia because it's a risky move. Says MooCow is almost as useless as deuce is anyway, and if he turns out green getting him out is still more useful than getting deuce out.

#922 Asks onihunter to explain what MooCow's contributions are other than agreeing with others.

Pretty much all zeks' recent posts have been centering around how we SHOULDN'T be targetting inactives, which flies in the face of what is apparently common Mafia knowledge that inactives are often Mafia themselves. After AFJ posts his analysis claiming MooCow is suspicious, he jumps on the bandwagon immediately and campaigns for MooCow to get lynched instead of deucegladlier. The entire time he's campaigning against MooCow, there's very little analysis of his own, despite his protestation of piggybacking/bandwagoning.

Combine this with fishy behavior earlier in the game+clues on both days connected to him (Shikamaru is a ninja who can throw knives as well as manipulate shadows).
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 09 2010 02:48 GMT
#1083
f5f5f5f5f5f5f5f5f5f5f5f5
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 09 2010 03:03 GMT
#1094
Clues:
Object flew in the air, blinding pyro, then released an electric shock. Suffocating object.
Killer's heavy breathing.

AcrossFiveJulys was stabbed while drunk. The post mentions survival of the fit.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 09 2010 03:18 GMT
#1103
Quickly skimming peoples' profiles, I couldn't find anything related to bars/drinking or electricity/suffocation/heavy breathing.

The only clue that really jumps out is the stabbing. Knives have been mentioned each post so far, and there are a number of profiles that have blades/knives relate to them. It's also a common way to kill people though, so I don't know :\
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 09 2010 03:39 GMT
#1110
On June 09 2010 12:29 LunarDestiny wrote:
Dammit zek I was goign to say something about 3 lions...

AcrossFiveJulys was on the prowl this night, he knew full well that in this city, it had become a survival of the fit. He was hoping that the mafia would slip up, and creeping up and down streets through the shadows, and checking every alley revealed nothing. Sighing, he moved into the local bar that he knew would still be open at this hour. Snagging a pint from the bar, and then sitting down in a booth, he sighed in frustration. After he finished his beer, he ordered another, then another. By the end of the night AcrossFiveJuly’s had no idea who stabbed him, but he was left dead all the same.


Okay.
-Lions are animal. Survival of the Fittest?
-Action of lions:creeping.
-"Checked every alley revealed nothing." Lion hides in shadow before engaging his prey and his prey often don't see him until the lion takes action.
-He finish a beer (1), ordered another (2), and another (3).

Nice catch. I totally missed the three beers.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 09 2010 03:56 GMT
#1116
On June 09 2010 12:51 LaXerCannon wrote:
Suspects:
TheGilaboy - I don't think I should say anymore about him :S

Hugoboss21
+ Show Spoiler +
I've been considering this connection since the very first day post. His profile includes the fact that he loves playing medic & SPY in TF2. Now I've only played TF2 for max 5 minutes at a friends house so I had to do some research (please correct me if there are any facts i'm ignorant to). Here are some points I found regarding the spy from team fortress 2:

-You can't use a weapon when you're cloaked. This would be able to connect to the three deaths (BloodyC0bbler, ElyAs, PyroMa5ta) or BEP for short. BEP didn't notice that they were being followed until the murder decided to kill. Especially in Pyr0ma5ta's case the mafia didn't stun before revealing himself. Instead he revealed himself and then stunned.

-Your body briefly glows as your team's color when fading in and out of invisibility as a spy and that will give you away if seen removing your cloak. This is probably how BEP noticed that they were being followed.

-The spy in team fortress has a masked like the mask figure in ElyAs' death.

-One of his weapons is an Electro Sapper which could be what he threw at Pyr0Ma5ta. Then again, you can't really get anything use it on an enemy character in the game.

I still don't think this is good enough to point a finger at him as I can't explain his weight or his ability to beat ElyAs in running despite his weight.

Misder
+ Show Spoiler +
Nothing Happens in my life. The end.
-Kinda reminds me of AcrossFiveJuly's death


You can probably tell I got really lazy after the first too :S I'm going to go off to bed now. One final note: I like littlechava's survival of the fittest clue! I didn't catch that D=

The spy also smokes right?
[image loading]
This could be why he was breathing heavily/out of breath.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 09 2010 04:55 GMT
#1126
Just throwing this out there:
Hugoboss and 3 Lions have been pathetically inactive this entire game. Now there's multiple clues pointing towards them. If this isn't mafia behavior I don't know what is?
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 09 2010 18:29 GMT
#1146
I don't feel that great about the DT check at this point, but I'll go along with onihunter for right now. Definitely voting double lynch tomorrow - I'm pretty confident that both 3 Lions and Hugoboss are Mafia at this point.

For what it's worth, onihunter is also linked to the clues. In his profile it says he's been swimming since 5 years old, which connects to the "floating" clue from the first day post.

This better turn out to be right though. The town may not be a lost cause, but I certainly feel like it's in dire straits. Losing another lynch on a possible townie could be the nails in the coffin.

Going to vote for onihunter+double lynch now. I'll try to look at his post history a bit later, as well as the other analyses of him. Still a lot of time to change our votes if something changes.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 10 2010 01:25 GMT
#1163
lol@onihunter's posts since he got targeted. Even if you're mafia, shouldn't you try to defend yourself/change peoples minds? Seems like it'd just hurt your team
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 10 2010 23:29 GMT
#1227
Here's my analysis of zeks' from a while back: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=127781&currentpage=51#1017

Some of his recent posts:
#915: Responds to my analysis.

#1062 Thinks the Mafia on deuce's bandwagon would probably have stayed there because it was so well established.

#1079 Waiting for new day post.

#1085 Question about whether inactives will be modkilled.

#1106 Posts trying to link clues to 3 Lions. Misses the stronger links outlined later on, but obviously 3 Lions is pretty likely connected to the (later) clues.

#1139 Trusts DTA's drive to get onihunter lynched.

#1153 Adds on to a previous post that if onihunter flips Miller instead of Mafia we can begin trusting DTA and form a town circle.

#1158 Analysis post on onihunter. He uses the fact that onihunter supported lynching deuce initially and only switched to MooCow later when the bandwagon was fairly well established as evidence that deuce is probably still green. He thinks that onihunter probably only switched because the result didn't matter, and he wanted to evenly distribute Mafia votes. I disagree with this inerpretation - I think there were probably quite a few Mafia on board with MooCow's lynching. Even as onihunter said, losing MooCow as a townie would be a bigger loss than losing deuce, so I think it's likely that a lot of Mafia jumped onto the MooCow bandwagon when they realized it was a possibility. Don't know about deuce, but I feel like he probably is just a retarded townie (I guess we'll find out for sure when he's modkilled this round).

#1203 Says he trusts DTA/DTA has established himself as a townie

#1206 Questions whether YellowInk still thinks deuce is red.

#1209/1210 He's convinced that the MooCow bandwagon was not a Mafia ploy, and deuce is green because onihunter turned against him quickly.

#1213 Again says he's sure that most of the mafia were against deuce.

#1214 Post about Gila bandwagon - he clears LaXer because onihunter supported his lynching early in the game, says CompX/bumatlarge are suspicious because they voted near the end. This confuses me (even though CompX is suspicious). Why would the mafia waste two votes? The only plus side is that they wouldn't be involved in the lynching of a green, so there wouldn't be much suspicion cast on them compared to the others.

#1216 More about deuce's bandwagon.

I'm sure there were Mafia on both bandwagons, so these points are valid. I also think that there were probably more Mafia switching over to MooCow's bandwagon when the time arose. Zeks mentioned the fact that he was with AFJ from the start, and he never switched his vote. This doesn't clear him - he could have just been a Mafia member waiting to see what happened, then when he saw AFJ make that post about MooCow, he jumped on the opportunity. Then, after pushing for MooCow's lynching constantly, the other Mafia finally "came around" and supported him.

I'm still pretty sure zeks is Mafia.




Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 10 2010 23:49 GMT
#1229
sputnik.theory:
#159 Introduction post, says he's happy to be playing his first TL Mafia game, but he's played others before.

#265 Asks if it's common for Mafia to run for elected roles, and if it is we should have more election options. How would more options help?

#424 Accepts that YellowInk and Darth will win the elections, says that we should lynch inactives because a blue role would likely be active. Could be a justification for his own inactivity, trying to say that he's just inactive because he's only a green.

#553 Defends his lack of activity. He says there just isn't much to say in the early game, so that's why he hadn't done anything at that point. Says he'll be posting more later.

#556/557 Claims that a lot of YellowInk's posts from day 1 were mostly just about getting elected, and again states that he just wasn't interested in posting that early in the game. Says he didn't write that post to "insight ruckus".

#690 He wrote a big post then apparently lost it.

#692 Presents the theory that there were two Mafia involved in ElyAs' death. Says this implicates MTF.

#700 Garbage post about how he thought the clues were supporting convoluted plots. Makes sure to cover himself by saying he's not definitely behind this idea.

#914 Inactivity post.

Votes: Darth, MooCow

Reeks of Mafia to me. The little back and forth at the beginning of the game seemed reasonable enough. Then he never started posting more even when the game got more interesting. Tried to cast doubt on MTF. Voted MooCow with no explanation. Has done nothing since.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 11 2010 00:31 GMT
#1234
On June 11 2010 09:23 zeks wrote:
Show nested quote +

#1062 Thinks the Mafia on deuce's bandwagon would probably have stayed there because it was so well established.

It would have stayed there if the MooCow argument never existed. If AFJ never came up with the MooCow thing we'd have something like a 17-5 vote split for deuce and Gila respectively.
Show nested quote +

#1106 Posts trying to link clues to 3 Lions. Misses the stronger links outlined later on, but obviously 3 Lions is pretty likely connected to the (later) clues.

If 3 Lions is red would that not practically clear my name?

Show nested quote +

#1158 Analysis post on onihunter. He uses the fact that onihunter supported lynching deuce initially and only switched to MooCow later when the bandwagon was fairly well established as evidence that deuce is probably still green. He thinks that onihunter probably only switched because the result didn't matter, and he wanted to evenly distribute Mafia votes. I disagree with this inerpretation - I think there were probably quite a few Mafia on board with MooCow's lynching. Even as onihunter said, losing MooCow as a townie would be a bigger loss than losing deuce, so I think it's likely that a lot of Mafia jumped onto the MooCow bandwagon when they realized it was a possibility. Don't know about deuce, but I feel like he probably is just a retarded townie (I guess we'll find out for sure when he's modkilled this round).


Losing MooCow would be only a slightly bigger loss than deuce (like 1 millimeter more). I won't argue how effective MooCow was the whole game, but sure I accept the fact some people think MooCow was more useful than deuce.


Show nested quote +

#1209/1210 He's convinced that the MooCow bandwagon was not a Mafia ploy, and deuce is green because onihunter turned against him quickly.


The MooCow bandwagon was started by a townie. Mafia used it to cover themselves up by spreading the votes evenly and to take out a better player (most of you agree MooCow was more useful than deuce). They were taking advantage of our "mistake" if you want to call it that.

Show nested quote +

#1213 Again says he's sure that most of the mafia were against deuce.

Yes, until the MooCow option came up for them.

Show nested quote +

#1214 Post about Gila bandwagon - he clears LaXer because onihunter supported his lynching early in the game, says CompX/bumatlarge are suspicious because they voted near the end. This confuses me (even though CompX is suspicious). Why would the mafia waste two votes? The only plus side is that they wouldn't be involved in the lynching of a green, so there wouldn't be much suspicion cast on them compared to the others.

Because I think without MooCow they would've possibly spread their votes with Gila. Then the MooCow thing came up so they used him instead of Gila.


Show nested quote +

I'm still pretty sure zeks is Mafia.



Well I said what I said I feel like I'm incriminating myself now for being so defensive all of a sudden. But the main point I want to establish is how mafia was distributed in those voting lists.

For what it's worth, I'm not as suspicious about you as I am about the inactives with a few fishy posts like sputnik.theory, or the ones with clues connected to them like Hugoboss/3 Lions.

I just feel like, as far as active posters go, you're one of the most suspicious. Maybe I need to read the entire exchange again, but I felt like anyone reasonable could assume that there were Mafia on every list. It just seemed like you were being way too defensive about the whole deal. And no, I don't think you connecting clues to 3 Lions would definitely make you a townie if he is indeed red.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 11 2010 01:05 GMT
#1236
I guess 3 Lions is going to get modkilled this round anyway. We'll see what happens... I'd imagine a Mafia member wouldn't just give up like this.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 11 2010 01:16 GMT
#1237
Oh nevermind, didn't see his post. He'll just be warned. Lame.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 11 2010 02:16 GMT
#1254
sicksicksick I was right about 3 Lions getting modkilled
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 12 2010 02:35 GMT
#1304
No, they have to hit LaXerCannon specifically. Until the bodyguards are dead, multiple hits do nothing.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 12 2010 02:39 GMT
#1306
Or a fake medic that was told to save LaXerCannon figured out why.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 12 2010 03:00 GMT
#1316
The clues this round seem especially cryptic, but here's my attempt at analyzing them:

These are the possible clues, in my opinion:
YellowInk/LaXerCannon are companions in analyzing clues
Went through hours of fruitless work?
LaXerCannon was attacked from behind.
YellowInk experienced an explosion of pain in his legs.
LaXerCannon bled out - so he was stabbed?
YellowInk walked past gallows and was lynched.

I haven't seen anything regarding the gallows/lynching in anyones profiles, so it could just be a game related sentence, not a clue. There may be something deeper there though.

LaXer bleeding out is big in my opinion. Every night people have been stabbed.
Players left with things related to stabbing in their profiles:
Hugoboss21 with the TF2/Spy reference
Zyrre with the "gut this puppy" quote
zeks with the ninja who throws knives

The other clue that really jumps out at me in this post is the fact that YellowInk and LaXer are companions. Even though they're both blue roles, the clue can still be relevant, right?
Players left that relate to being together:
BrownBear has a picture of him and his friend together
DCLXVI has a quote: "If you truly love each other, die together". This might be relevant because it's referring to *other* people who are together.
bumatlarge has the quote "together but separate, like oatmeal". LaXer and YellowInk went separate ways. Also, not related to this post specifically, but his profile says "that's how i like it bitch, dark and gritty" which relates to night posts in general.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 12 2010 17:43 GMT
#1350
If we're voting inactives I'd rather vote sputnik.theory and Hugoboss.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 13 2010 03:12 GMT
#1395
I'm going to vote along with MTF.

I've wanted Hugo out for a while, too little posting (all of which is about how he's sorry he's not posting enough - trying to get sympathy), clue connections, etc.

I also trust Darth's DT check, and the worst case scenario will probably be that bumatlarge turns out to be a Miller.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 14 2010 01:41 GMT
#1473
Glad it's over, but I would have died tonight anyway :D
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-06-14 02:25:09
June 14 2010 02:24 GMT
#1497
I was less suspicious of you (edit: Darth) after LaXerCannon/YellowInk died because he said he had another medic roleclaim to him. I thought the most likely situation was that YellowInk's other roleclaimer was a fake, but in retrospect that's pretty retarded. Obviously he would have cleared himself by saving MTF. Oopsies!

I'm definitely guilty of not doing anything this game. I was way too lazy to put in the time I needed to to be a good town poster - if I ever play again I'll have to keep this in mind. Luckily there were worse people around =]!
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 14 2010 02:53 GMT
#1514
Also, I've never played this here or anywhere else gj 3 Lions
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-06-14 03:20:33
June 14 2010 03:19 GMT
#1533
On June 14 2010 12:14 flamewheel wrote:
I like Jessica more :<

Also ugh inactivity owned this game. I hate that. People need to be more active in TL Mafia >.>

Sorry for my inactivity. In the future I'll try signing up for a game without clues - then I won't be able to excuse myself from actually reading/posting as much as I should because I can "fall back on clues" to determine people's alignment.

Though my clue analysis was pretty shitty anyway . Especially about Darth. I had no idea he was connected to the clues, didn't take names into account when scanning profiles.
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 14 2010 04:28 GMT
#1546
I was also kinda timid about calling anyone out/going public with my PM experiences after you guys died because I hadn't really confirmed that I was actually a medic with anyone in the circle. Darth had a lot more support for sure - and it's been revealed since that deconduo thought I was Mafia. So I probably would have ended up being hung if I actually did point fingers at Darth ;p
Entusman #12
littlechava
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States7218 Posts
June 14 2010 04:46 GMT
#1550
Ack. Hopefully next game I'll be less retarded/more gutsy.
Entusman #12
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