TL Mafia XXVI - Page 8

LunarDestiny

United States4177 Posts

June 09 2010 02:09 GMT

#1074

To answer some of your questions:

I never played a mafia game with clues before.
No, I am not a native speaker.

Well, night is ending and I don't know if I have to thank Darth for accusing me of being mafia which makes me a bad target for the mafia.

LunarDestiny

United States4177 Posts

June 09 2010 03:05 GMT

#1099

AcrossFIveJuly is a logical target.

But Pyromaster is a bad target. Pyromaster got a 2 days temp ban and would be mod killed anyway. That is one wasted kill right there.

And looks like someone was protected by a medic.

LunarDestiny

United States4177 Posts

June 09 2010 03:29 GMT

#1108

Dammit zek I was goign to say something about 3 lions...

AcrossFiveJulys was on the prowl this night, he knew full well that in this city, it had become a survival of the fit. He was hoping that the mafia would slip up, and creeping up and down streets through the shadows, and checking every alley revealed nothing. Sighing, he moved into the local bar that he knew would still be open at this hour. Snagging a pint from the bar, and then sitting down in a booth, he sighed in frustration. After he finished his beer, he ordered another, then another. By the end of the night AcrossFiveJuly’s had no idea who stabbed him, but he was left dead all the same.

Okay.
-Lions are animal. Survival of the Fittest?
-Action of lions:creeping.
-"Checked every alley revealed nothing." Lion hides in shadow before engaging his prey and his prey often don't see him until the lion takes action.
-He finish a beer (1), ordered another (2), and another (3).

LunarDestiny

United States4177 Posts

June 09 2010 17:28 GMT

#1143

Well, the mafia seems like a reliable role check. Don't think the mafia would use fake role claim tactic or darth lying just to lynch onihunter.

LunarDestiny

United States4177 Posts

June 09 2010 18:51 GMT

#1148

I like to think of it this way.

We lynch Onihunter today:
Turns out to be town. We lynch lion and the dt tomorrow.
Turns out to be mafia. We lynch lion and 1 other person tomorrow.

We lynch Lion today:
Turns out to be town. We lynch Onihunter and 1 other person tomorrow.
Turns out to be mafia. We lynch Onihunter and 1 other person tomorrow.

Based on this, it is more worthwhile to lynch Onihunter today. This is based on that both Onihunter and Lion have the same chance of being mafia.

LunarDestiny

United States4177 Posts

June 10 2010 01:22 GMT

#1160

Are we safe to assume that the first few who voted to lynch onihunter are not likely to be mafia?

LunarDestiny

United States4177 Posts

June 10 2010 01:25 GMT

#1162

If so, the cut off line should be Brownbear since I am the one who suggested this.

LunarDestiny

United States4177 Posts

June 10 2010 01:28 GMT

#1164

On June 10 2010 10:25 crate wrote:
When the vote is unanimous? Good luck getting anything out of the votecount other than figuring out who was awake when Darth posted.

Not saying that those who voted late are mafia. Just want to point out that mafia members are not likely to vote on their member if a solid bandwagon hasn't been formed.

LunarDestiny

United States4177 Posts

June 10 2010 03:40 GMT

#1185

We are not sure whether 3lions is mafia or not. I can't make a very strong argument about people's reaction to lynching him.

But it is safe to assume that darth's lead is positive and people's reactions to it should be interesting. There is a small chance that the mafia gave up on onihunter very soon after darth announce Onihunter is mafia.

Darth's announce time:18:20

On June 09 2010 18:37 Zyrre wrote:
Considering DTA's announcement and my previous analysis of onihunter, I'll go with him on the oni lynch + double lynch.
+ Show Spoiler +

On June 09 2010 07:02 Zyrre wrote:
Analysis of onihuter.

At the start it seemed like he tried to even out the votes on all the candidates, including bear and zeks, by being overly suspicious of everybody. This would be great for mafia since their organized voting would then sway it in favour of whoever they wanted picked.
He then proceeded to talk about medics and who they should protect. Also asks the question to the town who they think medics should protect and so on, would obviously be great information for mafia.
He posted some player analysis, but all of them ended with "seems pretty neutral, could be either" or something similar. Most outstanding was DCLXVI which he thought to be mafia.

He bandwagoned early with deuce as lynching target, but switched late to MooCow.
Also his response to the vigi modkill seems a bit over the top.

This is the most suspicious posting I've looked at yet, high chance of being mafia in my eyes.

First person to support Darth and also did analysis on Onihunter which makes me believe he is innocent.

On June 09 2010 19:01 deconduo wrote:
Wow, some more interesting revelations from the night, but a few things we need to be really careful of. First of all, its really close to a mafia win right now. If we lynch wrong today, its almost certainly a lost cause for town. Its 16-6 maf/town right now. 1 bodyguard and both our vigilantes are down. Town kill power is just our double lynches right now.

Oni could be a miller. The DT claim could be a fake. How can we trust Darth's source? How can we trust Darth even? Why would the DT claim to Darth? Also, Zyrre posting a condemning analysis on oni and then suddenly, a DT has a guilty on oni. Just a small coincidence?

I'magainst lynching off clues, but right now the ones pointing at 3-lions are a bit too much. I trust Darth somewhat, but we need to be really careful right now with who we lynch.

Doesn't trust in darth but also believe the 3-lions clues are very strong. If 3lions is mafia as we predicted, then deconduo just a town who emphasis more on clues then trust.

On June 09 2010 21:46 Thegilaboy wrote:
Based on analyses, and the fact that I think we can trust Darth for the most part, I will be voting for oni and the double lynch. LD's analysis seems too good to pass up and worth looking into as a potential second lynching candidate.

2nd person to support darth. Also supports lynching 3lions. Again, if 3lions turns mafia, he should also be innocent.

On June 09 2010 22:43 Misder wrote:
Double lynch tonight with oni and 3 Lions is what everyone is saying.
Two questions to consider:
Is the source reliable that told Darth? (Probably, otherwise if the real DT tells Darth, than the source would be called off)
Is today's clues enough to point to 3 Lions? (I have no past experience in Mafia, and Im not sure if one day's clues is enough to point to one person. If someone can find more clues pointing to 3 Lions, I woul feel more confident in lynching him.

I'll defend myself later. Can anyone explain exactly why they think Im mafia?

Raised a lot of questions about the lynchings of onihunter and 3lions. He is trying to weaken our confidence in onihunter and 3lions being mafia or just playing a cautious game.

On June 09 2010 23:40 zeks wrote:
In DTA I trust.

Very simple answer. Maybe he played mafia before and knows that when someone declares someone else mafia with a dt checks, then the accused would almost always be lynched.

LunarDestiny

United States4177 Posts

June 10 2010 03:46 GMT

#1187

Wow, bumatlarge mindfucked me with his post.

And onihunter, if you are a mafia. Did your teammate told you to shut up because you are giving us more clues.

LunarDestiny

United States4177 Posts

June 10 2010 04:25 GMT

#1192

Bumatlarge, I knew you were pretty high when you kept seeing wording of MTF in different orders.

LunarDestiny

United States4177 Posts

June 10 2010 06:19 GMT

#1200

Hmm, MTF got some nice insight which encouraged me to do some investigating at least. I dig around the clues and found something kind of interesting but kind of weak.

Sorry crate, this weak clue points to you.
crate's Public Profile:
You know, the most amazing thing happened to me tonight. I was coming here, on the way to the lecture, and I came in through the parking lot. And you won't believe what happened. I saw a car with the license plate ARW 357. Can you imagine? Of all the millions of license plates in the state, what was the chance that I would see that particular one tonight? Amazing!

The theme of crate's profile is "what is the chance?"

day 1 post:
Incognito the Pardoner, through his tremendous intuition, had sensed that something was to go down last night. Whilst in his office finishing his work, he deflected no less than five assassination attempts, ranging from sniffing poison in his coffee cup to leaping out of the way from a thrown knife while walking down the hallway. Dedicated and passionate to his job, Incognito would not let any threat deter him from furthering the prosperity of the town. By 11:00, he had finished everything, and after securing all the windows and other entrances into the building, he prepared to leave for the night. However, on his way out, he passed by the receptionist’s desk, and then something bad happened. Somebody had forgotten to turn off the printer, and it was on the point of overheating. Incognito recognized the danger and started backing away quickly, but in one freak moment, the printer exploded and showered Incognito with burning hot ink, hitting him in the face. As Incognito ran outward toward the street to escape, he was struck by a speeding car.

The whole paragraph is about Incognito being very cautious and yet got the worst luck ever Somebody forgot to turn off the printer and it exploded hitting him with hot ink. The chance of that happening was pretty low.
He got ran over by a speeding car which might not be unintended. But a speeding car often refers to reckless, acholic drivers right?

But the counter argument is the line: Incognito recognized the danger and started backing away quickly. Because Incognito realizes he is in danger which means what is happening is not unintended.

I hope this wasn't already pointed out by someone.

LunarDestiny

United States4177 Posts

June 10 2010 20:35 GMT

#1222

Anyone played a mafia game before where someone got a role that is not stated in the OP?

LunarDestiny

United States4177 Posts

June 11 2010 01:38 GMT

#1239

So we are just waiting for the mod post. Pretty sure Onihunter is mafia by his reaction. Let me go get some pics to celebrate or to grieve.

LunarDestiny

United States4177 Posts