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TL Mafia XXVI - Page 3
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
On June 09 2010 13:55 littlechava wrote: Just throwing this out there: Hugoboss and 3 Lions have been pathetically inactive this entire game. Now there's multiple clues pointing towards them. If this isn't mafia behavior I don't know what is? Indeed. I think unless they post soonish, my vote is going to fall on one of them. I'd say 3 Lions because the clues seem stronger, but that's just me. Also, vote for double lynch today, because we are rapidly runningout of time. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
On June 09 2010 18:20 DarthThienAn wrote: WAIT. The clues are juicy but a DT check is better. I got my information from a source. yo. onihunter is mafia Chances of him being miller? Meh, forget it. I'll take my chances. Lynch him today, lynch 3 Lions tomorrow with some other person (vote for double lynch as well) Sounds good to me. Voted ^^ | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
On June 10 2010 11:11 onihunter wrote: or on gift cards, know what I mean? eh wut wut the awesome rolly gooey feeling when you roll them into a tiny ball just the right amnt of stickiness, not enough to be like an eww but enough to be like a "hey this feels nice" Oh, you. Epic mafia troll is epic. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
On June 11 2010 10:28 YellowInk wrote: Looks like a lot of warnings are going out in about a half hour. And a couple modkills - maybe we'll get lucky. It's not like there was any reason to wait to vote down to the wire. This game is so messed up. Everyone has voted, so unless people have posted and I just haven't noticed, it looks like we will be cool, at least for today. Also, I'm vaguely insulted by my name on the shit list, but more insulted by the fact that nobody's analyzed me yet  | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
![[image loading]](http://memegenerator.net/Success-Kid/ImageMacro/1305784/Success-Kid-And-the-result-is-FUCK-YEAH.jpg) | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
On May 28 2010 02:16 flamewheel wrote: Player List: 1. TheGilaboy 2. Hugoboss21 3. Zyrre 4. crate 5. LunarDestiny 6. 7. 8. 9. bumatlarge 10. 11. 12. littlechava 13. 14. zeks 15. 16. YellowInk (Pardoner) 17. DCLXVI 18. TyranoS_NiveK 19. LaXerCannon 20. BrownBear 21. 22. MTF 23. CompX 24. 25. Misder 26. 27. DarthThienAn (Mayor) 28. 29. deconduo 30. sputnik.theory + Show Spoiler [Profile Photos] + 1. TheGilaboy 2. Hugoboss21 3. Zyrre 4. crate 5. LunarDestiny 6. Deucegladlier 7. onihunter 8. MooCow 9. bumatlarge 10. 3 Lions 11. barth 12. littlechava 13. AcrossFiveJulys 14. zeks 15. Icysoul 16. YellowInk 17. DCLXVI 18. TyranoS_NiveK 19. LaXerCannon 20. BrownBear 21. jiabung 22. MTF 23. CompX 24. supernovamaniac 25. Misder 26. pyr0ma5ta 27. DarthThienAn 28. ElyAs 29. deconduo 30. sputnik.theory 19 of 30 players remaining ? of ? Detectives remain ? of ? Medics remain ? of ? Vigilantes remain ? of ? Veterans remain ? of ? Millers remain 1 of 1 Mayor remains 1 of 1 Pardoner remains 1 of 2 Bodyguards remain 4 of 6 Mafia remain (this includes the Godfather) 1 of 1 Godfather remains Mafia KP = (# of Mafia / 2) rounded up. Max KP = 3, Min KP = 1 Current Mafia KP = 2 15 of 24 Townies remain (This includes all town-aligned players) 4 out of 19 isn't too bad, but we have to remember that there are still millers in the game - I would venture a guess that there are two, so there's a 1 in 3 chance that anyone who flips red to a rolecheck is a miller, just something to keep in mind. Also, only 2 Mafia KP, awesome | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
The later the game goes, though, the worse modkills are for town (unless they're scum modkills of course). We aren't doing horribly right now, but we aren't doing great either, so I would advocate townies who don't want to play at least contributing the bare minimum. If nothing else, they're padding the number of town so that mafia has to spend that extra 2 or 3 KP to kill us (which gives us an extra day, which can mean a LOT). Essentially, at this point, what I'm saying is that lynching inactives is no longer in our best interest, and we really have to start basing our lynch behavior off of one of the following things: -Behavior in thread (if someone gets caught contradicting themselves, they are most likely scum, because townies have no reason to lie). -Rolecheck results (although remember, millers do exist, so rolecheck only has a 66% chance of netting us a mafia). -Clues (but be very very careful, because it's easy to overanalyze and find clues where there are none). -Analysis of past posting habits (probably the safest way to catch mafia). I believe this is the safest way for us to go forward from here. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
On June 12 2010 08:50 crate wrote: I'm really curious about where this 66% comes from in a semi-open game. My assumption that there are 2 millers in the game, as I said in an earlier post: On June 11 2010 11:43 BrownBear wrote: -insert long-ass player list here- 4 out of 19 isn't too bad, but we have to remember that there are still millers in the game - I would venture a guess that there are two, so there's a 1 in 3 chance that anyone who flips red to a rolecheck is a miller, just something to keep in mind. Also, only 2 Mafia KP, awesome I think it's a pretty safe assumption, given the number of people in the game, and the way past games of this size have been run, so unless proven wrong I'm going to continue to assume it. Of course, I could be completely and totally wrong. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
And to think we were so happy about doublekilling mafia yesterday... shit. So here's what needs to go down: Today, we have a double lynch. We need to use it very very wisely. People I am concerned about: zeks Hugoboss TheGilaBoy Misder Will be posting analysis on at least one of these fine gentlemen later. Tonight, a very important and dangerous thing has happened: both Bodyguards are down. Darth is naked. This is a bad thing, and I wouldn't be surprised if mafia decide to stack on him in an attempt to take him and his 3 votes out of the game. However, they may anticipate that and hit two random people instead while the medic(s) are tied up protecting Darth... ugh, problems. Ideally, we want to lynch 2 mafia today, because in addition to being awesome, that gives mafia only 1 KP going into tonight. Thus, only one medic on Darth every night is needed to ensure his safety, and if there are others they can protect other important town voices. In order to do this, we have to lynch wisely, this means that as annoying as he is, we can't lynch DeuceGladlier or another of the idiot inactives. As dumb as they are, their chances of being mafia are very very slim. We need people to provide clean, solid analysis on whomever they choose, but we need analysis on everyone, even the people we think are protown like DTA or crate. As such, I propose we do the following: You may analyze as many people as you wish. AT THE BARE MINIMUM, though, please take a look at the following playerlist: Player List: 1. TheGilaboy 2. Hugoboss21 3. Zyrre 4. crate 5. LunarDestiny 6. Deucegladlier 9. bumatlarge 12. littlechava 14. zeks 17. DCLXVI 20. BrownBear 22. MTF 23. CompX 25. Misder 27. DarthThienAn (Mayor) 29. deconduo 30. sputnik.theory Very simple, analyze the person below you. So I will analyze MTF, DCLXVI will analyze me, Misder will analyze DTA, sputnik.theory will wrap around to the top and analyze TheGilaBoy, etc. If you wish to analyze more than one person, please feel free to do so, but do this at the bare minimum please. And put some effort into it, even if you're analyzing a very very pro-town player, because they could always be a very skilled mafioso, or even the Godfather. OK GO | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
On June 12 2010 12:39 DarthThienAn wrote: OH WAIT IM TOTALLY NAKED. Yes that is the only thing I got out of your post BB. Awww... You don't like my idea?  | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
And what Darth said, any holes in the analysis will be covered 99% of the time. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
I'm also wondering why it was that mafia chose to hit YellowInk instead of Darth. Both are pretty equally dangerous as town coordinators, but YellowInk's ability (pardon people) doesn't really hurt the mafia at all, and can actually help them if he accidentally pardons scum. Darth's triplevote is incredibly dangerous to the mafia if he's town aligned, and also, he had just gotten one of them killed. With the events of day 3, it is really confusing to me why the mafia would choose to hit YellowInk instead of Darth. Maybe I'm just being paranoid... but I'm a little concerned now. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
Voting Habits: Day 1: YellowInk for Mayor Day 2: DeuceGladlier for lynch Day 3: Onihunter Nothing that special here. He kept his vote on Deuce after the bandwagon changed to MooCow, which means abosolutely nothing. He did vote differently than onihunter both times, and 3 lions the one time 3 lions voted, so that counts for something (actually, probably counts for a whole lot, unless mafia are retardedly coordinated with their day votes.) Overall: What I'm noticing is while he hasn't been super-mega-LD-style active, his posts tend to be reasonably content filled and well thought-out. He's more active than I have been, too, so I really can't knock him for that. A few things I have noticed/posts of note: Night 1: he claims to have survived a hit. Seems pretty cool, since only 2 people died and stacking hits would be stupid, so there's not much to go against him. He tends to base his analysis off of clues, although more recently he's started analyzing behavior. Like I said, his posts tend to be well thought out and on the longish side. Here's an example: On June 07 2010 04:40 MTF wrote: This is a very succinct explanation. Seems quite plausible. Well done.  The biggest flaw with this theory is, quite simply, "why?" Why would Mafia put two hits on either of them, when they could have stacked those two on a higher profile/more active townie? The only plausible implication would be that I am myself doing what I warned town of before I left for work yesterday. It'd be a ridiculously convoluted scheme for me to be engaging in at this point. If any more Mafia members would like to come over and say hi, I'll gladly invite them for a stay. I'll be going over clues again after work tonight, as well as reviewing the post histories of a chosen few individuals, hopefully with as much analysis as crate provided. Keep looking and talking people! He shows that he's reading and analyzing the thread well, revisits an old idea he had and revises his opinions based off of whats happened so far, and he shows a pretty solid grasp of what's going on in the game. All of this speaks town to me. so to summarize: Arguments for TOWN: -Well thought out posting that has been critical of already-caught mafia members. -Voting history that is pretty much the exact opposite to caught mafia. -Probably was telling the truth when he survived that night 1 hit. Arguments for SCUM: -Not a whole lot. -Possibly could be playing a very elaborate mind game? Unlikely. So I'm pretty sure MTF is town. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
Also, we might want to consider going for another double lynch tomorrow... | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
I will vote in it after the results of today's lynch, because that will tell me all I need to know. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
![[image loading]](http://www.lolwut.com/layout/lolwut.jpg) But seriously, here are my thoughts on the game. Mafia played very well the first couple of days. Sneaking Darth into the mayoral spot like that was brilliant, I didn't see it coming until much later. Mafia's biggest mistake came from deciding to nail both LaXer and YellowInk night 3. I see where they were coming from, as YellowInk was a dangerous person to keep alive for much longer, but nailing the bodyguard AND the pardoner in one night aroused too many suspicions that the town circle was infiltrated. Plus, the whole "why was YellowInk targeted and not DTA" thing started suspicions on Darth, which I think led to the mafia's downfall. crate was mafia? The Godfather, no less? I am completely blindsided, he played an excellent game, and he was actually on my excel sheet as LEAST likely to be mafia. Darth played very well too, until that slipup on the last day, where he drew way too much suspicion on him. Sucks that the DTs were apparently clairvoyant (nice job, guys!), and kept his hands tied throughout the second half of the game, but so goes the life of a scum mayor, I suppose. I am slightly confused as to why mafia conceded. Here's how I see the rest of the game playing out: 2 scum lynched by us, Darth probably cleared in the eyes of the town crate had absolutely no suspicion on him from what I can tell The 2 of them should have been able to keep it going for a good long time, maybe being able to make a run at an endgame win (although it would have been hard once it got down to 5-6 people, but hey, they had a decent shot) Not like I'm complaining that they conceded, but if I had been in their place, I probably would have elected to keep fighting. Plus, the sacrifice-half-your-team ploy would have been just so incredibly badass. Looking back on the game, here's who I thought was almost positively town: crate MTF DCLXVI DeuceGladlier DTA (provided bumatlarge flipped red, which he would have) And here's who I thought were mafia: Hugoboss LunarDestiny TheGilaBoy CompX (that would have been a tragedy, lol )So I was pretty far off, lol. Still, I'm glad it worked out in the end. Thoughts on my play: I didn't play as well as I wanted to this game. My reading of the game, and of several people in it, was off. Here's what I'd like to do better myself next game: BE MORE ACTIVE DAMMIT: I was pretty active Day 1 and 2, but I dropped off a LOT afterwards. This is following a trend I've noticed in my playstyle, so I need to work to keep it together for the long haul. I don't want to make flamewheel cry Don't trust people who post a ton of great analysis. Example: crate. Dude appeared extremely town-aligned to me when I read over his posts, but only because they were long and substance-filled. I really have to read more carefully into people's voting habits and WHAT they are saying, and look a lot closer to try and catch contradictions. Above all, DON'T TRUST PEOPLE YOU KNOW FROM PAST GAMES JUST BECAUSE YOU KNOW THEM FROM PAST GAMES. (i still <3 you DTA, but you played me like a piano T_T). That's all for this post. Funtimes coming up in a bit | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
THE BEARIES!!! ![[image loading]](http://www.filmfestivals.com/pixus/festivals/berlin/2001/ours_dor.jpg) (please note: Bearies are lighthearted trophies I decided to give out because I felt like it. No insult or emotional distress is intended by the Bearies. If you are insulted by a Bearie, it is probably because you are angry and/or neoconservative and/or German, and hate web 2.0 )Fun awards I thought I'd give out to players for their different accomplishments in this game. It was a ton of fun, and I didn't want it to end without at least some recognition for some players, so without further ado... BLABBERMOUTH BEARIE: For the most active player Goes to LunarDestiny! By my count, he had over 200 posts in this thread, which is massive considering that makes up about 1/7 of the total thread content. This man was on at all times, was always paying attention to the thread, and while some of his posts erred a bit on the spammy side, major props have to be given for just the sheer amount of time he spent paying attention to this game. As a side note, I'd love to see your endgame excel. I bet it's a lot better than mine ABOVE AVERAGE JOE BEARIE: For the best town-aligned player has to go as a tie between the two detectives: DCLXVI and deconduo! These two fine gentlemen pretty much won the game for town by themselves with some truly clairvoyant rolechecks, not only rooting out scum, but forcing Darth to essentially play as a townie through Day 2 and 3, and causing the mafia's nefarious plans to unravel and collapse around them. Well played, sirs, and thank you for saving our butts when we needed you most! I look forward to playing with you guys again. SUPERVILLAIN BEARIE: For the best mafia player most definitely goes to crate, with DarthThienAn as a close second! Darth was also an excellent mafia player, managing to sweep his way into office on day 1, but he did overstep his boundaries just a little bit on the last day, and his position as mayor actually worked against him as he was under intense scrutiny, which led to his downfall. crate, on the other hand, started off strong by establishing himself with some solid, seemingly town-aligned logic and analysis, built up a trusting public relationship with the town, and continued throughout the game with great posting and town logic - never letting on that he was in fact the Godfather, and the evil mastermind behind most mafia plots. From my semi-close rereading of the whole game, I did not notice a single post that seriously considered crate as a possible mafia suspect, which is huge for a mafia player. He played extremely well, I actually think he could have taken the game much further if he wanted to, even by himself, and I look forward to enjoying playing games with both of these players in the future. RADFIELD JR. BEARIE: For the most hard-luck player belongs to barth, who has now been killed night 1 in two games I've played in with him It's especially sad because he seems to be extremely excited about playing, but he just seems to attract night hits. Hopefully this won't continue in the future.KORYNNE BEARIE For the best rookie is awarded to YellowInk! Coming in for his first game (unless I am totally and completely wrong, which I'm pretty sure I'm not), YellowInk showed that he wasn't afraid to put himself out there, running a valiant but ultimately doomed campaign for mayor. In his role of pardoner, he continued to work as one of the best public town organizers I've seen, and was extremely active. In a climate where new players often feel overwhelmed and tend to be quieter and just attempt to soak everything in, YellowInk jumped right in to the deep end, got as involved as he could, and helped town immensely while he was alive. Well done, sir! TDOT BEARIE For the best troll is awarded to onihunter for his hilarious acceptance of his fate and his proceeding to spam up the thread with image macros and youtube videos while hampering town discussion (like any good scum player ), and also bumatlarge, for his complete refusal of his fate, and his proceeding to insult every member of his team that abandoned him, as well as several other random players. Their reactions to knowing their fate was sealed were varied, but incredibly awesome.BABY BEARIE: For the cutest mod :3 goes to flamewheel, obvs :3 :3 :3 'Twas a great game, folks. Can't wait for the next one. (No actual bears were harmed in the making of the Bearies. The entire country of Germany, however, was deeply insulted.) | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
On June 16 2010 13:22 Qatol wrote: You act like him getting pardoner was a bad thing. Last time I checked Pardoner is stronger for the mafia than mayor is. 1. Less scrutiny and 2. really powerful ability late game. So the town getting to deny the mafia that role is really important. Very true, I didn't mean to give off that impression. It was more meant as a lament that his campaign drew him a bit of undeserved scrutiny early that ultimately lost him the mayoral election to Darth (which was totally not a bad thing, as it worked out :D) My apologies for wording that wrong. | ||
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