EPTTL Mafia XXVI - Page 2
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onihunter
United States515 Posts
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onihunter
United States515 Posts
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onihunter
United States515 Posts
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onihunter
United States515 Posts
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onihunter
United States515 Posts
Instead, letting new players who are currently pretty inactive individually adopt this policy if they wish to seems better. If the new player has a set goal every day, then he will probably encourage himself to post more and be more aware of his own activity level. I think YellowInk's idea should be a guideline, not a hard rule. I'll post some thoughts on the actual game when stuff occurs to me. | ||
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onihunter
United States515 Posts
Everyone should post. Not doing so hurts our chances and helps the mafia. It also could get you lynched in the future. There are really no downsides to posting. If you have no posted much yet, start now. If you have nothing to say, think harder--there is always something. That's all there is to it. Let's move on past this. | ||
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onihunter
United States515 Posts
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onihunter
United States515 Posts
The probability that the mafia hit no medics/detectives: 17/21 * 16/20 * 15/19 = 51%. So there's about a 50% chance the mafia will hit at least one medic/detective. | ||
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onihunter
United States515 Posts
19/21 * 18/20 * 17/19 | ||
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onihunter
United States515 Posts
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onihunter
United States515 Posts
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onihunter
United States515 Posts
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onihunter
United States515 Posts
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onihunter
United States515 Posts
 . I'm going to be analyzing some people today based off of crate's format (which I'm shamelessly stealing)AcrossFiveJulys Posts since the game began: 26 Votes: DTA for mayor and MooCow for lynch Notes: First substantial post pretty late in Day 1. Questioned the wisdom in voting for YI, sided with DTA. Cautious about voting. #599: Emphasizes that he doesn't like posting on Day 1, as indicated by a previous mafia game in which he was an assassin. #657: Puts some heat on thegilaboy for being pretty defensive about getting accused and linking clues to specific people to draw attention to someone else #728: "Do not put 100% trust in MTF" #735: responds to a bunch of posts against him, accepts the weak clue links. Ends by stating that he'll post more thoughts later on some people #786: Suspicious at MTF for warning about double hits and the fact that he claims he got hit. #787: Doesn't like going after deuce, since he's most likely townie #790: Still suspicious of MTF #793: More defense of himself #795: misunderstanding of MTF and disturbed that he didn't clarify whether he's a vet/medic block #798: More heat on MTF #802: analyses on crate, littlechava, and zeks. thinks littlechava is more likely to be mafia, while others are probably pro-town #808+9+11: puts 4 other inactives into the spotlight as alternatives to deuce. #821: throws some names out who posted less after day/night 1 #825-present: starts pushing hard for moocow, for overplaying newbie card. links one clue. Thoughts: Very inactive on day 1 and then tries to justify it, might be a mafia just skimping on some work for day 1. Also, being inactive on day 1 isn’t actually super dangerous since there are a good 5+ other people. 2nd series of posts attacks MTF, largely based on misunderstanding each other. Might be a mafia trying to get the town to be suspicious of him, or just a townie being very cautious and somewhat creative and intelligent. Leaning towards latter. Really against lynching deuce, which might indicate that they are both mafia and he’s trying to cover for him, which is another reason to lynch deuce today. His gunning for MooCow I think isn’t strong enough for a lynch tonight, since this IS a newbie game. Lots of people on TL don’t read OPs carefully (god damn even though they should), so I think its excusable right now. Overall, I’m pretty neutral about him. Could be a mafia coming out from under the rock after day 1 and putting heat on some other people to divert attention. Or just a very cautious townie who really wants to get a mafia on Day 2 rather than lynch inactives like deuce. Will continue to watch for him. [b]For:[b] DTA, crate, zeks Against: YellowInk, thegilaboy, MTF, littlechava, moocow | ||
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onihunter
United States515 Posts
littlechava Posts since the game began: 26 Votes: DTA for mayor and deuce for lynch Notes: Some clue analysis to begin with on Day 1 New player, completely underestimated the activity of mafia Explains that he voted for Darth b/c suspicious of Yellow Says that emphasizing activity might be detrimental but later accepts it when it’s explained Agrees with YellowInk’s rule about analyzing 4 people every day Puts some more clue analysis out Would vote for zeks/thegilaboy if voting only on clues Says a blue role dying does not mean elected roles are suspicious Analyzes crate, hugoboss, laxer, and zyrre. crate and zyrre = good, while the other two are suspicious Critical of the MTF-conspiracy theory Thinks should vote for inactives, starting with deuce? Posts an angry post while drunk (lol) Thoughts: His posts are mostly all logical. Very heavy on the clue analysis, despite saying you shouldn’t vote solely off of them. Does some analyses of people based on posts, though not very deep. Just quick impressions, which are totally fine. Thinks should lynch inactives, which might be a mafia ploy (all the mafia could be reasonable active, so encouraging these lynches would benefit mafia). However, that’s not a very strong reason to be suspicious, since inactives SHOULD be lynched imo (actually a debate is going on right now lolol). So, nothing to really be alarmed about. Neutral yet again, although leaning pro-town. For: DTA, crate, zyrre Against: YellowInk, thegilaboy, zeks, hugoboss, laxercannon | ||
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onihunter
United States515 Posts
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onihunter
United States515 Posts
On June 08 2010 03:07 littlechava wrote: Nah, I'm still right. All you've done is make a couple garbage posts calling me out, which I then defended. Then you keep bring it up again whenever possible, without refuting anything that I've said. @onihunter: I'm not against YellowInk or Thegilaboy at this point. I realize you're not really "against them" right now, so let me clarify. My "for" and "against" sections of my posts aren't extremely concrete, just what I gleaned from your posts as POTENTIAL feelings/connections. Small things that MIGHT play a role later, so I'm not saying you're really "against" them, per se. Next analysis: zyrre Posts since the game began: 12 Votes: YellowInk for mayor and deuce for lynch Notes: First real post used to support YellowInk b/c of his “aggressive style” Brings up an interesting point about clues—maybe far fetched clues = better Says that he doesn’t like spamming posts, suspicious of Zeks and DCL, but notes that zeks pointed clues at DCL More clue analysis Again says that he’ll try to post more, but lots of discussion happening while he’s asleep (fine since he’s in Sweden lol) Not suspicious of thegilaboy at all Can’t profile Tyranos b/c he doesn’t post much. Says a little about MooCow Thoughts: Not posting enough to do substantial analysis, plus some of his posts don’t really have much content. So just post more, since it’s hard for us to read you without more information. If you really are pro-town, this is for your benefit, since you want people to read you as that. So not really any feelings right now from me. New player? For: YellowInk, thegilaboy Against: Zeks, DCLXVI, Misder | ||
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onihunter
United States515 Posts
DCLXVI Posts since the game began: 20 Votes: YellowInk for mayor and no one for lynch yet Notes: Says that ink clue check clears YellowInk pretty early Says DTs not linking circles = good b/c of the godfather #278: Sort of distrustful of DTA (?) #370: Analyzes each candidate. “I don't like either of my guesses about YI or zeks, but I suppose zeks is the most likely townie. DTA and BB are hard to decide on.” Puts some heat on Tyranos at the end of the post Says that he doesn’t trust ppl very much in this game #389: “voted YI because at the moment DTA seems more likely mafia” “Seriously though, trying to figure out DTA is driving me crazy.” Somewhat distrustful of him? Agrees with MooCow that one of the elected is probably scum Says we should hang littlechava if thegilaboy flips townie after lynched, since littlechava accused him so quickly w/o clue connection and such Thinks voting off clues is a bad idea (multiple times) Puts out more of the MTF-conspiracy theory Thoughts: About 1/3 to 1/2 of his posts don’t have much content, so potentially putting on the façade of being active while really not, something mafia would do. Doesn’t like clue analysis, which might also indicate he’s mafia because clues are naturally always targeted towards mafia. Rather aggressive statement in the accusation towards littlechava, something that should be noted. More analysis of the MTF-conspiracy theory can also be mafia-like, since the mafia obviously failed to kill MTF last night, and DCL may be trying to make the best of that by putting MTF under the spotlight. I’m kind of suspicious of him right now, for the above reasons. Leaning more mafia than townie atm. For: YellowInk, zeks Against: Tyranos, littlechava | ||
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onihunter
United States515 Posts
On June 08 2010 03:55 DCLXVI wrote: @onihunter yeah, that was pretty dumb, I think I changed my opinion about that early on though I did not realize that people could change their vote at the time. I thought that he was voting without reading the thread fully. I still stand by lynching him for his inactivity if we decide to lynch inactives. I fleshed out the conspiracy theory and provided a solution... what is wrong with that? (besides my solution having a massive error I overlooked  )I was going to point out your error in having stated only my old opinions on people until I realized that I never updated my opinions in the thread :/ I probably should have noted that my notes are chronological; I just wrote down a summary of people's posts as I went through their posting histories, so yeah, their views could change dramatically since the beginning. | ||
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onihunter
United States515 Posts
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