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TL Mafia XXVI - Page 2
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On June 07 2010 14:45 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: + Show Spoiler + What was it that kind of worked? Our medic protection scheme or the mafia's target selection scheme? Mafia's target selection scheme. On June 07 2010 14:45 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: I'm not asking you to announce it, but rather your reasons for not announcing. If it's just the reason that I posted earlier, then fine. I was very suspicious of you before when it seemed you had admitted a medic protected you but didn't say whether he PMd you afterwards, but it seems you never meant to admit that a medic saved you in the first place. My reasoning is simply that giving Mafia as little information to work with on why something did not go as planned is a good thing. Which I would extrapolate as being your own reason which you posted earlier. In any case, I apologize for the poorly written post. It was more or less just a "haha, try to do better next time" aimed at Mafia in a ballpark attempt to arouse a response. | ||
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I'll try to actually do some public behavior analysis when I get back home tonight. | ||
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 If you're going to sign up for a game of Mafia, actually play, please. Flamewheel, I'm glad you have an actual penalty system set up for this beyond just getting killed in the game. It is infuriating. I'm sorry to see MooCow go. He reminded me so much of going blindly into TL Mafia II. :p | ||
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On June 08 2010 13:59 YellowInk wrote: Definitely a good place to start. I'd recommend doing player analysis ala crate to help collect info. Once we have it all in front of us it should be easier to sort through. Also, if any DTs are looking for work and want to avoid crossing paths with the investigations of others, my door is still open to roleclaims. I agree that it is a good place to start. However, I encourage town to be wary of using this list as a sort of end-all solution to catching Mafia. Assuming that the outcome was positive for Mafia no matter who was lynched, they'd have likely spread their votes between all three candidates for lynching, rather than pile on MooCow just because he was more active. That's the kind of move that traps you later on in the game, and I like to think that the opposition has more sense than that. | ||
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sputnik.theory: + Show Spoiler + Number of Posts Prior to Night 2: 12 Distribution of Posts: + Show Spoiler + - Pregame: 1 - After Role PM's: 1 - After Day 1: 3 - After Night 1: 3 - After Day 2: 4 Posting Summary: After Role PM's:+ Show Spoiler + Nothing stands out. After Day 1: + Show Spoiler + Mentions he's played Mafia before, but, being new to TL Mafia, uses Darth's little intro thing as a way to seperate himself from the inactive list. Later uses logical arguments to agree with lynching inactives. After Night 1: + Show Spoiler + Is called out as being one of those people not talking much. Defends himself saying that there isn't much to discuss early on in the game. After Day 2: + Show Spoiler + Posts the two-Mafia theory for Day 2, implicating MooCow, Tyranos, and myself. Last post is about not being caught up with the thread/wishes he had more time. Vote Record: Mayoral: DarthTheinAn (16th out of 17) First Lynch: MooCow (6th out of 9) Possible Relations: With: Not With: YellowInk, MTF, Against: Verdict: I think he's just a(n overly) cautious townie at this point. pyr0ma5ta: + Show Spoiler + Number of Posts Prior to Night 2: 18 Distribution of Posts: + Show Spoiler + - Pregame: 2 - After Role PM's: 2 - After Day 1: 2 - After Night 1: 1 - After Day 2: 11 Posting Summary: + Show Spoiler + After Role PM's:+ Show Spoiler + Playfully indicated that he'd vote for LunarDestiny. After Day 1: + Show Spoiler + Talks about needing to catch up. Copy-pastes bumatlarge's clue list, whilst saying that he isn't sure how much stock we should put into clues at that point in time. However, he goes on to use the clue list to eliminate zeks and YellowInk as reliable runners, ending up with his vote going to DarthTheinAn. Also mentions that he'd like to lynch YellowInk first. After Night 1: + Show Spoiler + Responds to being called out as inactive in an aggressive way. Lists out his general feelings about a few people. Thinks YellowInk is more likely Mafia than not, likes LunarDestiny, messes up bumatlarge's name, and finally points a clue LaXerCannon's way. After Day 2: + Show Spoiler + Calls me semi-inactive. :p Brings up the possibility that I didn't actually take the hit. Supports the evidence against TheGilaMonster and debunks the evidence against CompX. Disagrees with lynching Deucegladlier in favor of people whom we have more evidence against. Supports double lynch being used early on, advocates suspicion of all. Points out a legitimate flaw in LunarDestiny's logic, the two exchange arguments for a bit. BrownBear jumps into the fray on LunarDestiny's side. Asks town a few times why everyone seems to suddenly trust Darth/YellowInk. Vote Record: Mayoral: DarthTheinAn (13th out of 17) First Lynch: TheGilaBoy (2nd out of 4) Possible Relations: With: Zeks, DarthTheinAn Not With: LunarDestiny, BrownBear Against: YellowInk Verdict: A few actions, particularly the support of the early double-lynch despite being against lynching inactives, as well as the middle-road activity make me a little wary. I'm leaning towards him just being a very suspicious/eager-to-get-his-ideas-out townie, but definitely keep an eye on. deconduo: + Show Spoiler + Number of Posts Prior to Night 2: 13 Distribution of Posts: + Show Spoiler + - Pregame: 1 - After Role PM's: 1 - After Day 1: 4 - After Night 1: 1 - After Day 2: 6 Posting Summary: After Role PM's:+ Show Spoiler + Nothing of note, other than that he had the very first reply after roles went out. After Day 1: + Show Spoiler + Remarks on the poem in his profile (+ Show Spoiler [stolen "rough English translatio…] + Silence road girl milk Can I go to the bathroom? And fox. I like cake. Cake (and Sharon Ní Bheoláin). I am wearing a jumper. There are clouds in the sky Give me cake. Cake. After Night 1: + Show Spoiler + Says he'll do his best to report on players, even though he doesn't really know what he's looking for. After Day 2: + Show Spoiler + Disagree's with lynching people based off of clues from the last Night cycle. Reiterates that he's against lynching off of today's clues, says we should go after some more inactives. Vote Record: Mayoral: DarthTheinAn (4th out of 17) First Lynch: Deucegladlier (8th out of 10) Possible Relations: With: Not With: YellowInk, Littlechava, AcrossFiveJulys Against: Verdict: Feels more or less as he's portraying himself; busy dude who is trying to generally keep up. Leaning towards townie. bumatlarge: + Show Spoiler + Number of Posts Prior to Night 2: 20 Distribution of Posts: + Show Spoiler + - Pregame: 2 - After Role PM's: 1 - After Day 1: 9 - After Night 1: 1 - After Day 2: 7 Posting Summary: After Role PM's:+ Show Spoiler + Provides a neutral argument on lynching inactives, concludes by saying that first-day clues should not be enough to lynch anyone off of. After Day 1: + Show Spoiler + Wants a mayoral candidate without clues linking to them. Makes a suspect list based off of the first day's clues. Various theory-type posts about mayor. Eventually says that YellowInk posts too much/too aggressively to likely be Mafia. Later post is an odd, seemingly confused jumble at the beginning regarding YellowInk being exempt from rolechecks. After Night 1: + Show Spoiler + Just responds to YellowInk, saying that it doesn't take too much to contribute. After Day 2: + Show Spoiler + Says that it is likely that I am legit, but does mention the possibility that Mafia purposely stacked hits so that one of their own could come forward. Supports the vote against TheGilaBoy, citing clues over the dead-end route of Deucegladlier. Gets confused by the late vote-switching. Vote Record: Mayoral: YellowInk (6th out of 9) First Lynch: TheGilaBoy (4th out of 4) Possible Relations: With: Tyranos_Nivek Not With: Zeks, YellowInk, DarthTheinAn, LaXerCannon, Hugoboss21, Misder Against: Verdict: Iffy on him at this point. A few posts are good, some are the easy-content posts you expect from Mafia, and a few (guessing the posts from the phone) are just "muddy". A bit odd that he seems to sort of flip-flop on the clues being important, but it's not enough to be condemning or anything. | ||
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Trust: YellowInk - Posting hasn't really changed that much since the mayoral election, and has been trying varying methods to acquire information for town-side. DarthTheinAn - Same as YellowInk. crate - Still posting well. I don't like the numerous "I'm still here, don't worry" kind of posts, but the others he makes are quality enough for me to dispel most doubt. AcrossFiveJulys - Pretty much the only reason he's here for me right now is because of the way he approached me claiming to be hit. It was concern beyond just the fact that I'd claimed to be hit, and there was nothing real to be gained as Mafia to engage me in that way, at that point in time. Don't Trust: bumatlarge - Too many posts are unconvincing in their content, and possible clue connections. littlechava - Same as bumatlarge. Anybody saying that they have "a lot of reading to do" or "have to catch up", and then fail to post anything later. This is nothing more than filler people, and innocent or not, you shouldn't be doing it. Read, then post. Not post, then read. On June 09 2010 04:32 DarthThienAn wrote: MTF (? maybe he did) I wasn't really for lynching either of them, but preferred getting the minimally active person out to the relatively innocent looking MooCow or to TheGilaBoy, whom people wanted to hang based on clues (which simply aren't enough yet). | ||
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I highly suggest you keep trying to kill me.  Looking through clues now. | ||
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On June 09 2010 12:29 LunarDestiny wrote: Dammit zek I was goign to say something about 3 lions... AcrossFiveJulys was on the prowl this night, he knew full well that in this city, it had become a survival of the fit. He was hoping that the mafia would slip up, and creeping up and down streets through the shadows, and checking every alley revealed nothing. Sighing, he moved into the local bar that he knew would still be open at this hour. Snagging a pint from the bar, and then sitting down in a booth, he sighed in frustration. After he finished his beer, he ordered another, then another. By the end of the night AcrossFiveJuly’s had no idea who stabbed him, but he was left dead all the same. Okay. -Lions are animal. Survival of the Fittest? -Action of lions:creeping. -"Checked every alley revealed nothing." Lion hides in shadow before engaging his prey and his prey often don't see him until the lion takes action. -He finish a beer (1), ordered another (2), and another (3). Before I start, I'm going to say that I support this. Add in the "on the prowl" part, too, for good measure. Good job, man. I think you've struck red. | ||
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On June 09 2010 13:21 bumatlarge wrote: You got hit once again? Obviously a medic protected you one day at least, so nice to know a medic is paying attention. But im tryin to ask myself why the mafia would hit a popular person once, see he lives, and then hit him ONCE the night after. Doesnt seem very well thought out, as the 50/50 shot of you being protected by a medic that time, would only lead to a medic protecting you again if you seemed like a hot target. I really dont see anyone else a medic would be desperate to protect. There is still the chance that mafia did stack hits, but that would mean your lying. I guess I'll see what you have to say, since littlechava and I were to be the prime suspects if you died, which this might as well be. Despite being a somewhat high-profile player this game, I get the feeling that someone Mafia-side knows of my past games, too. While I'm alright to have around in the beginning of the game, my real strength lies in tying Mafia to clues as they pile up, so I become more dangerous to them later on. See:+ Show Spoiler + List of players who I've played with before:+ Show Spoiler + bumatlarge in TL Mafia 2, TL Mafia 3, Ace's Mafia World (I was Mafia in the last). zeks in TL Mafia 2. LaXerCannon in Ace's Mafia World. Not saying anything is definitive here, but I just get the feeling that the targeting of me is not solely based on this game. I could certainly be wrong, though. | ||
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So, I'm going to stop looking for now, because I'm hitting my head against a wall here. I'll make a general clue list/reading comprehension thing after work tomorrow. Right now I'm for lynching 3 Lions based on LunarDestiny's connections, which I feel fit rather well. | ||
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 This isn't me calling you Mafia, by the way, bumatlarge. Everyone has a right to be suspicious, and I don't think I've played a game of Mafia besides TL Mafia 2 wherein I wasn't under suspicion for one reason or another. I planned on doing some more cluework on that first day post to try to tie Onihunter down satisfactorily for myself, but, uh...He did my work for me, I guess. Thanks for the confirmation, dude. You make town life easy. Something of note about the clues. Assuming the clue linking Onihunter to the first kill is true (I'm inclined to say it is), then we probably have only one set of clues per Mafia member thus far. This is a good thing, because that means we can start profiling the similar/linked clues this coming day, as there will begin the first repeats. So, I'm going to try to summarize main points/potential clues about each of the killers thus far, following a format I've used before. Mafia A: (Very, very likely to be Onihunter given his behavior.) + Show Spoiler + Day 1: + Show Spoiler + Crime he thought, so unlikely in his town. Making his way down to the city center, he gazed at the buildings as he passed, the shopping mall that had just been built, the school he went to when he was a kid, just farther down the way a series of small stores and restaurants. This still strikes me as significant. Perhaps it was a clue linking to Onihunter by the fact that BC stops and turns around at the school, which is mentioned in Onihunter's profile. Making his way back the way he came, he stopped by the fountain in front of the office. It was there he noticed he was being followed. Turning, he saw a figure rush forward. The following morning, the town would discover the mayor BloodyC0bbler dead and floating in the town fountain. I'm going to guess we would have had a later clue linking to a short figure/growls or something, as the high school mascot seems to be a pitbull. The water has been explained. Mafia B: + Show Spoiler + Day 1: + Show Spoiler + Incognito the Pardoner, through his tremendous intuition, had sensed that something was to go down last night. At this time, I no longer feel that this is relevant. It seems like the clues are less spread out than I expected, which is good for us. Less red herrings, that way. Whilst in his office finishing his work, he deflected no less than five assassination attempts, ranging from sniffing poison in his coffee cup to leaping out of the way from a thrown knife while walking down the hallway. This needs to be noted and remembered. If this is a clue (it is possible that it isn't), then this killer is incompetent, unlucky, etc. or the misses are used to refer to an overarching clue. By 11:00, he had finished everything, and after securing all the windows and other entrances into the building, he prepared to leave for the night. I sincerely doubt the time is a clue, but figured I'd note it anyway (I get hung up on numbers). However, on his way out, he passed by the receptionist’s desk, and then something bad happened. Somebody had forgotten to turn off the printer, and it was on the point of overheating. Incognito recognized the danger and started backing away quickly, but in one freak moment, the printer exploded and showered Incognito with burning hot ink, hitting him in the face. As Incognito ran outward toward the street to escape, he was struck by a speeding car. It's just odd, isn't it? This can refer to any number of things. The killer got suddenly lucky, the death was improbable given the events leading up to it, the earlier attempts are irrelevant and some other force was at work on the printer/car. Just take note of the sequence between missed kills/sudden random kill, and watch for it to appear again. Mafia C: + Show Spoiler + Day 2: + Show Spoiler + Townspeople disappeared back to their homes, to wait out the night armed with shotguns behind hastily constructed barricades. Could be a clue, could be irrelevant. If a clue, then (haha) I'd start with looking at people with direct StarCraft references linked to them. However, after everybody else had left ElyAs stayed behind. He walked up to jiabung's body still hung, and began to inspect jiabung, perhaps looking for clues. The only reason I think this has good potential to be a clue, still, is the usage of the word "perhaps". It just feels like hesitant writing, to me, indicating some sort of specific thought process behind it. As always, I have the potential to be wrong, and feel it's more likely in this instance than not that I am. However, if this becomes a trend, definitely start tying it to people. A masked figure followed him, and stealthily kept to the shadows, not letting ElyAs out of his sight. The masked part is the most significant thing being told here, I believe. This gives some indication as to the appearance or attire of the killer. ElyAs moved quickly, breaking into a quick run, hoping to make it back home before he was overtaken. However, he was not to make it. As ElyAs passed by the town courthouse, he noticed that he had already been beaten--the masked figure was sitting on the steps. I know I've said it at least twice before already, but this is also very important. The masked person not only beat the running Elyas to the courthouse, but beat him there handily enough to be sitting there, waiting for him. This indicates that the killer has some sort of ability to traverse distances quickly (blink was already mentioned for TheGilaBoy, which I still support with an eye to looking for recurrences) or is a reference to some aspect of the killer's personality, such as a tendency/will to win (I know zeks has something about it in his profile and I believe one or two others do, as well). Whatever the case may be, keep it in mind. ElyAs gasped, but in an instant his life had been snuffed out, and the killer walked away with a bloodied knife. I don't feel like there are any clues here, but if there is it would most likely be either the bolded portion, which would refer to either how quickly he was killed or the specific use of the word "snuffed". Mafia D: + Show Spoiler + Day 2: + Show Spoiler + He was at his desk in his library, looking at the pictures of the recently deceased town leaders through his magnifying glass. After carefully analyzing the pictures, he realized he was no step closer to solving this crime. Could be a clue, could be entirely irrelevant. The only way I see this being a clue is if at least one of the six Mafia have clues spread around instead of being actual killers. I doubt that this is the case. After climbing into the bed, he turned off his light and turned to see his drapes flutter in the wind. He moved to them and saw his window open, shaking his head and not remembering opening the window, he moved to close it. The only relevant thing to note here, I feel, is that something opened his window (presumably second-story or higher, due to the death) and entered the room without him seeing them. This could indicate several things, most notably small size or invisibility. As he reached out to grab the handle, he felt a weight push against him, and he went tumbling out the window. A sickening crack was heard, and the lifeless eyes of barth gazed up at the sky. I keep coming back to this. Something "pushed" him out the window, but did not physically touch him. Otherwise it would have been worded differently. As I have noted before, this indicates that Mafia D is either something like a ghost or possesses some sort of ability to manipulate the world around them, without actually physically touching it. Mafia E: + Show Spoiler + Day 3: + Show Spoiler + It was pyr0ma5ta's night off from his job, and so he was headed back home. He walked slowly and deliberately, scanning the crowd for any signs of mafia. He knew that the mafia might target him for this, but it was his job. After the last townsperson had left the town square, pyr0ma5ta picked up the pace. However, he failed to notice that somebody was pursuing him as he made his way back home. Pyromasta was scrutinizing the crowd of people and only left after everyone else had gone. This means that his killer either had either hid himself well or was not visible to Pyromasta in some other way. pyr0ma5ta lived on the outskirts of town, and he had almost made it back home before he sensed somebody behind him. This portion strikes me as slightly odd, but it may just be flavor for the writing. However, pyr0ma5ta was undeterred, and slowly turned around, reaching for the handgun that he kept hidden in his back pocket. Before he could withdraw the gun though, something flew through the air, blinding pyr0ma5ta as it hit him in the face. As he clawed at the suffocating object, it released an electrical shock that brought pyr0ma5ta to his knees. Several things of note here. First, this is not the killer flying through the air, rather a tool/assistant to the killer. Likely thrown, as per the killer's approaching footsteps later. Note that the object blinds Pyromasta and then suffocates him, meaning that it covers his entire face. Finally, the electric shock brings Pyromasta down, meaning that it was powerful enough to actually arrest his nerves, rather than just a painful attack. I'm honestly not sure where to go with this. I searched long and hard last night without a satisfactory suspect to connect it to. Several "half-way there's", but nothing of real substance. (I also thought of jellyfish, YellowInk.) As he lay there, stunned, he heard footsteps approaching him. The last thing pyr0ma5ta would hear was the sound of his killer's heavy breathing. The first only serves to reiterate what was said earlier; the killer was not the object which latched onto Pyromasta's face, and it's likely he threw the object at Pyromasta. The heavy breathing could mean many things, such as an indication of physique, distance from Pyromasta, breathing apparatus, asthma, or other character oddity. Honestly, my first thought was of DarthTheinAn, only because of the "Darth". : x Mafia F: (Very likely to be 3 Lions, to me.) + Show Spoiler + Day 3: + Show Spoiler + First off, I'd like to just note how short this part is. Just six sentences long. This makes me feel very strongly that the clues are structured in a tight way for this Mafia, and that BC/Flamewheel felt they couldn't elaborate for very long without making it completely obvious. AcrossFiveJulys was on the prowl this night, he knew full well that in this city, it had become a survival of the fit. On the prowl is not a very common phrase, in general. The survival of the fit is the only part of the 3 Lions connection that worries me, as "fittest" would more neatly fall into place with the whole Lion thing. (I disagree with the b-boy picture being used as a reference to that.) He was hoping that the mafia would slip up, and creeping up and down streets through the shadows, and checking every alley revealed nothing. Again, somewhat odd wording. Sighing, he moved into the local bar that he knew would still be open at this hour. Snagging a pint from the bar, and then sitting down in a booth, he sighed in frustration. I'm not sure what all the sighing is about, but if this isn't 3 Lions, then this should be looked at more closely. After he finished his beer, he ordered another, then another. By the end of the night AcrossFiveJuly’s had no idea who stabbed him, but he was left dead all the same. This is really the part that sold me, as it tied together the other part of the name quite nicely. Three beers. | ||
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On June 10 2010 14:41 Misder wrote: One thing to consider: Is it possible this is all a ploy? Maybe both onihunter and Darth's sources are both mafia. Since KP rounds up, onihunter dying doesn't reduce KP. And Darth's source is free of suspicion because everyone will think town. Even if we find all the other mafia, we won't suspect the source, and there will always be one KP. I don't know if this is a viable strat for the mafia, but its something to consider. I considered this, too, but there are only a few things to be gained from this. 1. If the DT is mafia, then he gains long-term credit with Darth. 2. If Darth is mafia (and the DT doesn't exist), then he gains long-term credit with town. Those are both quite far-fetched, given the scenario. 3 Lions was most definitely going to be lynched until Onihunter was announced. The only way the above scenarios are possible is if 3 Lions turns up town/blue and that Onihunter just didn't feel like playing anymore (possible given his reaction) as he wasn't under too much overt suspicion. Basically, this means Mafia would have thrown their most suspicious person out to die, rather than someone who, while under some scrutiny, was not likely to fall under the lynch-wagon anytime soon. This leads me to conclude that the scheme is entirely too convoluted and risky for Mafia-side to be engaging in it. | ||
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On June 10 2010 15:19 LunarDestiny wrote: + Show Spoiler + Hmm, MTF got some nice insight which encouraged me to do some investigating at least. I dig around the clues and found something kind of interesting but kind of weak. Sorry crate, this weak clue points to you. crate's Public Profile: You know, the most amazing thing happened to me tonight. I was coming here, on the way to the lecture, and I came in through the parking lot. And you won't believe what happened. I saw a car with the license plate ARW 357. Can you imagine? Of all the millions of license plates in the state, what was the chance that I would see that particular one tonight? Amazing! The theme of crate's profile is "what is the chance?" day 1 post: Incognito the Pardoner, through his tremendous intuition, had sensed that something was to go down last night. Whilst in his office finishing his work, he deflected no less than five assassination attempts, ranging from sniffing poison in his coffee cup to leaping out of the way from a thrown knife while walking down the hallway. Dedicated and passionate to his job, Incognito would not let any threat deter him from furthering the prosperity of the town. By 11:00, he had finished everything, and after securing all the windows and other entrances into the building, he prepared to leave for the night. However, on his way out, he passed by the receptionist’s desk, and then something bad happened. Somebody had forgotten to turn off the printer, and it was on the point of overheating. Incognito recognized the danger and started backing away quickly, but in one freak moment, the printer exploded and showered Incognito with burning hot ink, hitting him in the face. As Incognito ran outward toward the street to escape, he was struck by a speeding car. The whole paragraph is about Incognito being very cautious and yet got the worst luck ever Somebody forgot to turn off the printer and it exploded hitting him with hot ink. The chance of that happening was pretty low. He got ran over by a speeding car which might not be unintended. But a speeding car often refers to reckless, acholic drivers right? But the counter argument is the line: Incognito recognized the danger and started backing away quickly. Because Incognito realizes he is in danger which means what is happening is not unintended. I hope this wasn't already pointed out by someone. It was, by me. :p + Show Spoiler + crate: + Show Spoiler + Relevant Clues: + Show Spoiler + Day 1: Crime he thought, so unlikely in his town. ... Whilst in his office finishing his work, he deflected no less than five assassination attempts, ranging from sniffing poison in his coffee cup to leaping out of the way from a thrown knife while walking down the hallway....Incognito recognized the danger and started backing away quickly, but in one freak moment, the printer exploded and showered Incognito with burning hot ink, hitting him in the face. As Incognito ran outward toward the street to escape, he was struck by a speeding car. Connection to crate: + Show Spoiler + crate's profile quote is from Richard Feynman. It relates to the percieved improbability of things. It seems very improbable that Incognito would survive all of these attempts on his life, just to get sprayed in the face with hot ink and then run into a speeding car. Verdict: + Show Spoiler + I like crate's posting. A lot. And the clue is somewhat convoluted. So, I'm far from sold. I still think he's town, but, as I said, keep note of the clues and look for recurrences. As for your counter-argument, I can't say I agree with the reasoning. He realizes the danger of the printer overheating - this does not stop the printer overheating to the point of exploding, leading to Incognito's death from being improbable. | ||
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On June 11 2010 05:16 bumatlarge wrote: Well considering you had to vote, you could bring up reasons to suspect any of the lists. Its the switching and not switching thats important. I like darth's reasoning a bit but, there seemed to be alot more then 6 people switching. And Deuce was a useless lynch IMO, he voted for himself for gods sake, what mafia would do that. If you start bringing up clues and such on him, then we can start being suspicious, but wondering why people switched off him because he was a lazy apathetic towny in their eyes doesnt seem logical. And it's nice to see inspection of the people I posted, so I'm going to throw crate and darth in with the next post I do with previous clue found on them, because Im losing it (maybe I should drink more when im analyzing lol). I'll get to yellow in a bit. Also, why MTF can avoid suspicion because he is a bulletproof role? I think it's still relatively up in the air until his medic can find a way to vouch for him. I'm just entirely against ruling anyone out as mafia. To start, I'll say that I support your initiative to look at the high-profile people that nobody is publicly analyzing. Granted, I think you're super-paranoid, but one should certainly never leave the possibility out of any given person being Mafia. :p As for why YellowInk, Darth, crate, and others are saying that I'm most likely town, just look at the evidence. Day 2 and Day 3, Mafia only kills two people. Both nights I tell town that I got hit, without anybody contesting it (I wish someone had). To assume that I am lying is to assume that Mafia-side would stack two hits on one of their targets each of those nights, with either the intention of overpowering a medic and/or getting town to trust me. Both of those reasons have problems: 1. If trying to overpower a medic, why stack on those particular people? Nobody that has died thus far was likely to be protected by a medic. Three of the four were only semi-active and AFJ was unlikely to get medic protection due to his role in the MooCow lynching. (Should be noted that this was a smart move.) 2. Why waste kills (2 more town/blue roles dead by this point) when all that is gained by having me claim to have been hit really does is expose my posting habits to more scrutiny? Answer is, it doesn't, unless you think Mafia-side is trying to play in the most complicated way possible. It's been my experience that, other than selective PMs trying to persuade people, Mafia tend to stay as uncomplicated as possible, so that they don't get their members trapped in the open. I know this isn't going to convince you, Bumatlarge, but I'm putting it out there anyway for those following the conversation. | ||
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With the double lynch in effect, DT(s) still alive, and more clues incoming we could have a very good chance of getting Mafia down to 1 KP next Night cycle. I will find it quite funny if I am targeted again tonight, whether it results in my death or not. :p Assuming a worst-case (ignoring modkills for unpredictability) scenario for town, wherein we lynch two townies/Millers a Day cycle for the next two cycles, and Mafia are successful in both of their hits every Night cycle, it will still take Mafia 'til the end of Night 6 to kill enough of us to even things out. And that's assuming we don't reduce their KP and that we don't have any successful medic blocks. We've got this, people. | ||
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United States1739 Posts
I don't see anybody telling the medic to protect "Laxercannon, the bodyguard", unless you guys are just playing sloppily/had some earlier reason to trust the medic. A fake DT or a real DT who checked a Godfather could also be at fault. Regardless, somehow, someone got hold of Laxercannon's role. They knew, 100% for sure, that he was a bodyguard, or else they wouldn't have used their other hit on YellowInk. While this sucks for us, it's not the end of the world, so let's not panic. I'm looking at clues now. (Already see the "investigating" again...) | ||
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MTF
United States1739 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + First, I'd like to note going back to an earlier thought. + Show Spoiler + Day 2: + Show Spoiler + However, after everybody else had left ElyAs stayed behind. He walked up to jiabung's body still hung, and began to inspect jiabung, perhaps looking for clues. Barth was spending the night safely indoors. He was at his desk in his library, looking at the pictures of the recently deceased town leaders through his magnifying glass. After carefully analyzing the pictures, he realized he was no step closer to solving this crime. Day 4: + Show Spoiler + The night was long for the pardoner yellowink and his companion laxercannon. Together the men had the pictures of all the previous crimes laid out, and were scrutinizing them intensely. After hours of fruitless work, the two decided to adjourn for the night and pick up where they left off after. I no longer believe these are coincidental, due to the fact that it showed back up on Day 4. I am reverting to my previous opinion that these are clues. In which case, my suspect remains Bumatlarge, as I find nobody else related to investigation despite researching everyones profiles over again. There is also the possible "great intuition" from Day 1. Incognito the Pardoner, through his tremendous intuition, had sensed that something was to go down last night. Coupled with this is the fact that BumAtLarge has by far been the most consistent voice against me, despite the logical conclusion that I am not likely to be Mafia due to the way things played out. This is also alongside Mafia trying to kill me two days straight. As I said, Mafia wanted me dead, and hitting me wasn't working. The best way to do that (as well as prevent any unification behind me) was to discredit me. I also mentioned that I felt like someone who had played with me in the past (and thus knew my playstyle) was behind the repeat attempts to kill me. BumAtLarge has played with me more than anyone else in this game (three out of the four games I've been in before). They departed the town hall, and turned and walked separate ways. This could also relate to BumAtLarge's "together, but seperate", though that means clues are being taken from multiple parts of peoples profiles (which I've never seen happen, but there's a first time for everything). At the moment, I believe one of my votes just may be headed that way. General Notes About Today's Clues: + Show Spoiler + Yellowink began to walk past the gallows when he heard a sound from behind him. Turning, he saw LaXercannon get attacked from behind...As the rope was placed around his neck, he watched as laxercannon bled out over the ground. The town then found Yellowink hanging from the gallows comes morning. I want to note that Laxercannon's killer is not seen, despite YellowInk witnessing the moment of the attack. This supports my earlier thoughts that one of the killers is invisible/uses some sort of ability to attack. As yellowink began to move forward to help, he felt a sudden explosion of pain in his legs. Collapsing, he watched as a man stood over him, then dragged him up to the gallows. As the rope was placed around his neck, he watched as laxercannon bled out over the ground. The town then found Yellowink hanging from the gallows comes morning. There are several things to note. First, he was hit from behind in the legs, both at the same time. This may or may not be relevant. Second, the man stood over him as he collapsed, meaning he could be anywhere from slightly short to tall. Third, the man bodily drags YellowInk up to the gallows, which could indicate some strength. Finally, consider YellowInk's role as the Pardoner. His ability was such that he could stop the town from hanging people. He himself dies by hanging. Suspects (Other Than BumAtLarge): zeks: Relevant Clues: + Show Spoiler + Day 2: + Show Spoiler + After climbing into the bed, he turned off his light and turned to see his drapes flutter in the wind. He moved to them and saw his window open, shaking his head and not remembering opening the window, he moved to close it. As he reached out to grab the handle, he felt a weight push against him, and he went tumbling out the window. A sickening crack was heard, and the lifeless eyes of barth gazed up at the sky. Day 4: + Show Spoiler + Yellowink began to walk past the gallows when he heard a sound from behind him. Turning, he saw LaXercannon get attacked from behind....As the rope was placed around his neck, he watched as laxercannon bled out over the ground. Reasoning: + Show Spoiler + Zeks has a picture of Shikamaru Nara from Naruto in his profile. Shikamaru has the ability to manipulate his own shadow, using it to physically affect people in various ways. This would explain the invisibility during the night and in the darkened room of Barth. Verdict: + Show Spoiler + This clue is dependent upon how thorough the clue creator(s) were. Shikamaru's abilities seem to be reliant/stronger when there is a light source present, which hurts this clue a lot. For now, I'd call this connection very weak until we here of someone getting killed under a spotlight or something. :p crate: Relevant Clues: + Show Spoiler + Day 1: + Show Spoiler + Whilst in his office finishing his work, he deflected no less than five assassination attempts, ranging from sniffing poison in his coffee cup to leaping out of the way from a thrown knife while walking down the hallway....Incognito recognized the danger and started backing away quickly, but in one freak moment, the printer exploded and showered Incognito with burning hot ink, hitting him in the face. As Incognito ran outward toward the street to escape, he was struck by a speeding car. Day 4: + Show Spoiler + As the rope was placed around his neck, he watched as laxercannon bled out over the ground. The town then found Yellowink hanging from the gallows comes morning. Reasoning: + Show Spoiler + Again, back to crate being connected to improbability due to his profile quote. Day 1, Incognito survives a series of real attempts on his life, only to later be taken out by an exploding printer/run in with a speeding car. Day 4, YellowInk is killed by being hung, which is related to YellowInk's ability to prevent town hangings. Verdict: + Show Spoiler + While I don't feel as solid as previously, I still feel crate is town. At this point in time, I'm inclined to believe that at least one of our active, more or less trusted members is Mafia. This is simply because they somehow obtained a high amount of information, breaking through our only guaranteed line of defense. Furthermore, they'd likely be the Godfather, as they'd anticipate a rolecheck being so active. So, time for some analysis on a few people. Darth: + Show Spoiler + The bodyguards would most likely, if anyone, tell the elected positions who they were. One bodyguard died on Day 3, and then the next (along with an elected position) died on Day 4. It would have pretty much auto-confirmed Darth being Mafia if both bodyguards/YellowInk were all hit on Day 3, so the smart thing to do would be to spread them out over a few days. The only reason I see to hit YellowInk now, and not later, is that YellowInk would probably have been suspicious of the two days/two bodyguards scenario regardless, and presumably had numerous blue roles in contact with him, making him a dangerous coordinator. Darth has two things in his favor. First, he is still more or less proactively posting for town. Not a whole lot of analysis being done, but a call for town analysis, just the same. Watch out for anyone doing said analysis and him jumping on it, though. Second, there's the killing of Onihunter. The only way for Darth to have supported killing him is that Onihunter didn't want to play anymore, and could still support his team by letting Darth get credit for pinning him. This is a complicated scenario, though, so I much more strongly feel that Darth is legit at this point. crate: + Show Spoiler + crate has been given almost universal trust, and is also clearly a thinking person. Given those traits, he might have been brought into a town circle. crate has two things in his favor. First, he is about as active as me and is still posting in a very rational, pro-town way. Second, he did not run for Mayor. There has yet to be a game of Mafia I have played where at least one person (usually the Godfather) runs for Mayor. If crate is Mafia, I'd definitely say he'd be the Godfather. So, his lack of aggression in that area clears him of most of the (small amount of) suspicion I had. LunarDestiny: + Show Spoiler + LunarDestiny posts like a madman, which I'm not really sure is in his favor or not. He was the first person to point out the 3 Lions clue, which may or may not have the same ramifications as the Onihunter lynch that I mentioned for Darth. Given the fact that 3 Lions went out by modkill, I assume he either was going inactive anyway (possible) or that he decided it was pointless upon seeing LunarDestiny's post and the subsequent support that formed in the thread. However, I doubt he would be roleclaimed to, just in general. He also seems legitimately curious about the clues, rather than simply posting "here's what I see", which does a lot to clear him to me. He posts in a generally town way, even if a little manically at times. And again, he was the first person to point out the clues against 3 Lions. Finally, I'm going to end this by putting up the results of the vote lists so far. Vote Lists So Far: + Show Spoiler + Mayoral: + Show Spoiler + Votes for YellowInk (9) LunarDestiny DCLXVI Zyrre Thegilaboy bumatlarge zeks MTF CompX Votes for DarthThienAn (17) DarthThienAn littlechava deconduo crate Hugoboss21 BrownBear Misder sputnik.theory Votes for jiabung (1) Votes for Deucegladlier (1) Deucegladlier First Lynch: + Show Spoiler + Votes for Thegilaboy (4) CompX bumatlarge Votes for Deucegladlier (11) Deucegladlier crate littlechava Zyrre Thegilaboy deconduo Hugoboss21 MTF Votes for MooCow (10) DCLXVI Misder BrownBear zeks sputnik.theory DarthThienAn (x3) LunarDestiny 3 Lions did not vote. Second Lynch (unanimous, so no reason to put up results): The only thing I'm noting thus far is that (other than the targeting of me), nobody from YellowInk's vote list has been killed. I'll be looking back at 3 Lions posts, particularly around the limited cluework he was putting out (and who it was against), probably when I get back from work tomorrow. | ||
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MTF
United States1739 Posts
(gonna steal crate's format, kinda, because I'm shorter on time than usual) 3 Lions: + Show Spoiler + Summary: + Show Spoiler + - Points a clue at MooCow, Darth later comments on it being a "really nice catch". - Points clues at MooCow, Onihunter, Zeks, and Tyranos_Nivek. - "Sorry for inactivity" post. - Points clues at TheGilaBoy, Tyranos_Nivek, and Littlechava, which helps start off a bandwagon towards killing TheGilaBoy. Observed Relations: + Show Spoiler + None, never talked to anyone directly. Just posted clues. Conclusions: + Show Spoiler + 3 Lions was probably just trying to look somewhat active by doing very light cluework. The fact that he implicated one of his teammates in a post means very little when the way he did it was weak. However, he later very specifically points at TheGilaBoy, singling him out with stronger connections than to either Littlechava or Tyranos_Nivek. I believe this clears TheGilaBoy of suspicion, at this point. I do not think Mafia would have put so much pressure on one of their own in that way. Littlechava's clue connection was very weak, though, so the suspicion is not cleared there. Onihunter: + Show Spoiler + Summary: + Show Spoiler + - Asks zeks why it's good to lynch inactives, cites self-newbieness. - Posts about there being a lot to read. Mentions Darth's cluelist (he lists zeks, Tyranos, and TheGilaBoy) as being a good place to start looking for people to kill once the time comes. Reiterates newbieness. - Is against voting for YellowInk, claims he wants someone in that has no clues attached to him. - Continues to mention that we need someone without clues in office, continues being against electing YellowInk. - "bedtime, will read when I return kthxbai" type post. - "I'm back, gonna catch up now" type post. (Told you guys to look out for these) - "Caught up, response now" type post. Supports Darth, still against YellowInk. - Supports crate's strategy, talks about "mafia's evil hands", and calls out the inactives. - Agrees again with crate about wanting more information from candidates. Reiterates his strong support of Darth. Says he wants to lynch inactives, again. - Tentively agrees with LunarDestiny's way-out-there suggestion to lynch the Pardoner upon election. Posts general comments about the candidates: On June 04 2010 14:21 onihunter wrote: Darth: General agreement is he posts like a townie, so that's a plus. Also experienced, but that's neither a plus nor a minus. He also seems clear-headed. Yellow: Posts a LOT. Seems quite defensive when criticized, and I can't really say that I like the guy =/. Just personal preference though, nothing really concrete. Also inciting lots of arguing and conflict that is unnecessary at this point in the game. Beardude: I really liked him until he responded to Inkguy's attack. His responses weren't that coherent though imo, and he seemed really emotional in that post to me. Also he himself stated that it's personal between the two now, sort of alienating me. However, he IS running for pardoner specifically. Zeks: There isn't really that much past the few posts that contained mistakes, so can't say much. Suspicious in that he's not a newbie to this game, but I think it's forgivable. Overall, no one's quite solid, but I'd say that Darth slightly edges out the rest. Basically even for the rest. Once again, Darth is above all other runners. - Near the end of voting is suddenly alright with YellowInk/DarthTheinAn being voted in together. - Once again, supports DTA over YellowInk, mentions him having no clues connected to him again as well. Wants LaXer to die first. - Mentions that the active posters will probably not be protected tonight, is disagreed with by BrownBear and LunarDestiny is quick succession. - "bedtime, SAT test tomorrow". - Doesn't support YellowInk's plan to have a minimum posting limit per cycle on players. "Will post later when things occur to me". - More supporting activeness over inactiveness. - Posts about the probability of Mafia hitting medic/DT randomly. - For lynching Deucegladlier based on inactivity. - Argues against lynching MooCow, reiterates that we should kill off Deuce. - Says that MooCow talking a lot should be an easy indicator of if he's Mafia. - Reactionary post to the vigi modkill, as well as to MooCow being green. - Comment to LunarDestiny about it being okay that he switched to MooCow. - More probabilities of hitting blue roles. - Responds to an analysis done by Zyrre (who says he has a high chance of being Mafia) for three posts in a row. - Clarifies what Darth means when he says he's half-naked after a bodyguard goes down. - Talks about the clues against 3 Lions, without directly talking about 3 Lions at the time (this was after LD posted his cluework). - From here out it's just "don't kill me, lawl!" It still seems quite odd that he's giving up here without any sort of struggle. It feels almost like strong-arming the vote towards lynching him. Observed Relations: + Show Spoiler + Heavily for: DarthTheinAn For: crate Neutral: zeks, BrownBear, LunarDestiny Against: Heavily Against: ~ Conclusions: + Show Spoiler + More than ever, I'm worried about Darth being Mafia. This is solely because of the fact that Onihunter was so consistently against voting for YellowInk, but almost immediately for voting for Darth. Several other things to note. First, he makes liberal use of the "I'll be back later" types of posts, with no content to them. While these can certainly be legitimate, I have noted their danger before. These are filler posts, even if you do come back and post something later. It mimics activity so that the mental slate with your name on it and a timer next to it is wiped clean from other posters minds. Second, Zyrre is very unlikely to be Mafia in my eyes. He targeted Onihunter specifically in his analysis (who responded defensively), as well as mentioned 3 Lions being a suspect of his. Third, he had an pro-active stance against inactivity, frequently calling for people to post. This shows to anybody who hasn't encountered this before how a Mafia member can try to blend in well by posting a lot, seemingly supporting town ideals, but really adding no content. Finally, it seems very unlikely to me that Deucegladlier is Mafia, due to Onihunter's strong stance for lynching him. And now, to ease my curiousity: (all in order of occurrence) Compilation of Heavy/Quick Darth Supporters: + Show Spoiler + LunarDestiny (because of previous game with and clues/behavior against YellowInk) LittleChava (because of lack of clues as well as posting) Onihunter (because of general "vibe") BrownBear (because of lack of clues as well as posting/previous game with) Compilation of Those With Issues Towards YellowInk in Mayoral Race: + Show Spoiler + zeks (clues as validation) DarthTheinAn (theory on Mafia-plan, later on clues as validation) Onihunter (clues against/aggressive campaigning) MTF (clues as validation) MooCow (clues against/aggressive campaigning) Hugoboss21 (clues against) Pyr0ma5ta (clues against) LunarDestiny ("suspicious actions") deconduo (aggressive campaigning) littlechava (because of clues against and behavior) BrownBear (clues against/aggressive campaigning) DCLXVI (aggression) Compilation of "Need Mayor With No Clues" Sorts: + Show Spoiler + Onihunter BumAtLarge TL;DR Version: + Show Spoiler + 1. I believe Zyrre, TheGilaBoy, and Deucegladlier have a high chance of being town-aligned. 2. I am worried (not at all certain, but worried) about Darth being Mafia. 3. Be cautious of activity/pro-active town stances with no other valuable substance. It is easy to post in support of something. It is far more time consuming to put forth a new (or good) argument. 4. Also, be on the look-out for all people posting excuses for not being active/that they'll post later even though they clearly are on the computer long enough to post (looking at BumAtLarge here) now. More complicated reasons are more suspicious than regular ones. Finally, one thing we haven't considered in clearing Darth on the Onihunter kill: Suppose that Darth is in contact with a legitimate DT, who was pressing Darth to announce for him that he'd cluechecked Onihunter? This gives him motivation without establishing any credibility towards his being town, and would help to explain why Onihunter went down without a fight. | ||
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MTF
United States1739 Posts
On June 13 2010 08:22 DarthThienAn wrote: BTW guys. Second DT PMed me. bumatlarge got cluechecked to be mafia. I am publicly requesting this second DT get into contact with me. I have already PMed Darth asking for your identity. The reasoning for this is such: BumAtLarge would have to have been checked during the previous night cycle, during a period when he was not under high suspicion. Then, suddenly we have the second bodyguard die in as many days, with a hit on YellowInk (which could not have been coincidence in any way) as well. Darth is under suspicion for obvious reasons, and publicly requests for the second DT to get into contact with him after I've named BumAtLarge as my highest suspect. However, I only did this after night ended. It just feels like an attempt to sway town away from discussion about last nights kills, using my suspicions and support to advance a movement in that direction. So, I'd like to know who you are, second DT, so I can examine you for hints of red. | ||
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