EPTWe have 2 days either way...and 3 tries instead of 2 tries to hit mafia if we keep you around (and mafia kills you tonight).
So right now my choices for lynch would be: Qatol, Falcynn, or OpZ.
Pick Your Power Mafia! - Page 44
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
We have 2 days either way...and 3 tries instead of 2 tries to hit mafia if we keep you around (and mafia kills you tonight). So right now my choices for lynch would be: Qatol, Falcynn, or OpZ. | ||
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On May 08 2010 17:06 Korynne wrote: How will it end sooner... We have 2 days either way...and 3 tries instead of 2 tries to hit mafia if we keep you around (and mafia kills you tonight). So right now my choices for lynch would be: Qatol, Falcynn, or OpZ. If you kill me today, 1mafia/5 town. Goes to night, 1 mafia/4town. If you mislynch, 1 mafia/3 town, goes to night, 1 mafia/2town. Lynch ends the game Worst case scenario there's 3 more days (including today). Keep me alive and we mislynch, 1mafia/5town. Goes to night, mafia hit. Lets say my hit doesn't hit mafia. 1 mafia/3town. Lynch ends the game as if there's a mislynch it goes to night and mafia will kill someone and win. Worst case scenario there's 2 more days (including today). This is all assuming all hits go through, meaning there's no Jack/bulletproof/etc alive. | ||
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
So maybe it is a good idea to kill Foolishness because that gives us 1/4 and 1/3...which is better than the other odds... | ||
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
Falcynn might have a role? If Qatol was mafia he definitely should have a role unless he was unlucky... could've happened and then he went along with the i tried to pick copy cat thing. | ||
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On May 08 2010 17:27 Korynne wrote: Foolishness who do you think is mafia? You, for all the reasons said before. If I had to pick someone other than you, I'd pick Falcynn at the moment, but I need to do some rereading before making a final call. | ||
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On May 08 2010 17:12 Foolishness wrote: If you kill me today, 1mafia/5 town. Goes to night, 1 mafia/4town. If you mislynch, 1 mafia/3 town, goes to night, 1 mafia/2town. Lynch ends the game Worst case scenario there's 3 more days (including today). Keep me alive and we mislynch, 1mafia/5town. Goes to night, mafia hit. Lets say my hit doesn't hit mafia. 1 mafia/3town. Lynch ends the game as if there's a mislynch it goes to night and mafia will kill someone and win. Worst case scenario there's 2 more days (including today). This is all assuming all hits go through, meaning there's no Jack/bulletproof/etc alive. I'd like to point out that I was the one pushing for the CompVig hit on Zona. I realize it probably gets me nowhere in anyone's eyes, but it is still a fact. With Zona flipping scum, as Korynne mentioned, citi.zen is cleared through the numbers. (I think the mafia would have to be insane to double up on 12 with the original setup.) On May 08 2010 16:56 Foolishness wrote: Game will end 1 day sooner if you keep me alive  Does it? How? Let's assume you are innocent: 5 1 - lynch an innocent player other than you 4 1 - mafia miss, you miss 2 1 - lynch or lose 5 1 - lynch you 4 1 - mafia miss 3 1 - this is still lynch or lose. If the town mislynches here, we still lose. This is because we would be at 2 1 with a mafia hit incoming. That takes us down to 1 1 and mafia win if their numbers equal our own. Anyways, I have an analysis of you in the works. You have some questions I think you need to answer. | ||
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On May 08 2010 17:37 Qatol wrote: I'd like to point out that I was the one pushing for the CompVig hit on Zona. I realize it probably gets me nowhere in anyone's eyes, but it is still a fact. With Zona flipping scum, as Korynne mentioned, citi.zen is cleared through the numbers. (I think the mafia would have to be insane to double up on 12 with the original setup.) Does it? How? Let's assume you are innocent: 5 1 - lynch an innocent player other than you 4 1 - mafia miss, you miss 2 1 - lynch or lose 5 1 - lynch you 4 1 - mafia miss 3 1 - this is still lynch or lose. If the town mislynches here, we still lose. This is because we would be at 2 1 with a mafia hit incoming. That takes us down to 1 1 and mafia win if their numbers equal our own. Anyways, I have an analysis of you in the works. You have some questions I think you need to answer. I pointed it out above. Ends one day sooner. Your math is wrong here. Stick to your draft numbers, you know the thing you have been focusing on ALL GAME LONG. If your analysis has anything to do with the draft or number picking, I'm not going to bother to respond. You need arguments that aren't centered around it; my eyes are continually sore from your repetitive arguments about people picking numbers. I always thought you were more of a behavioral analysis guy, not an Ace "omg guys I found the ultimate plan to find the mafia if any of you disagree with me we kill you!" kinda guy. | ||
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
Am I right? Am I right? Am I right? That was my devious plan from the beginning. Modkill my mafia buddy to prove me innocent. Not to mention modkill my PARDONER mafia buddy, who could save me from lynch. And now that I think about it, if I was mafia with him, we might actually have this game in the bag had he been alive. With a pardon, and 2 kills each night, I think we'd win no matter what (definitely need to double check the numbers, I'm too tired to do so). So yes, I gave up a possible auto win to modkill my mafia buddy to try to prove my innocence, and hope to avoid 2 days' worth of lynches. You found out my plan. GG. | ||
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On May 08 2010 17:46 Foolishness wrote: I pointed it out above. Ends one day sooner. Your math is wrong here. Stick to your draft numbers, you know the thing you have been focusing on ALL GAME LONG. If your analysis has anything to do with the draft or number picking, I'm not going to bother to respond. You need arguments that aren't centered around it; my eyes are continually sore from your repetitive arguments about people picking numbers. I always thought you were more of a behavioral analysis guy, not an Ace "omg guys I found the ultimate plan to find the mafia if any of you disagree with me we kill you!" kinda guy. On May 08 2010 17:12 Foolishness wrote: If you kill me today, 1mafia/5 town. Goes to night, 1 mafia/4town. If you mislynch, 1 mafia/3 town, goes to night, 1 mafia/2town. Lynch ends the game Worst case scenario there's 3 more days (including today). Keep me alive and we mislynch, 1mafia/5town. Goes to night, mafia hit. Lets say my hit doesn't hit mafia. 1 mafia/3town. Lynch ends the game as if there's a mislynch it goes to night and mafia will kill someone and win. Worst case scenario there's 2 more days (including today). This is all assuming all hits go through, meaning there's no Jack/bulletproof/etc alive. Actually, there is a mistake in your analysis. Here is what you said: 5 1 - mislynch 4 1 - mafia kill an innocent 3 1 - mislynch 2 1 - lynch ends the game? I see a missing night hit. Town still only gets 2 lynches no matter who we lynch. If you think my biggest strength was ever behavioral analysis, you seriously need to reread mafia 4. However, I still found Zona, didn't I? Why have I been making those arguments on numbers? Well have they been wrong yet? Actually, they have been 100% correct so far. I said that the mafia likely didn't pick two of the same number. So far we have seen a [6][1], [8][1], and [12][1]. I said that after we found sidesprang and darth were mafia, JeeJee was cleared. Notice how he was pretty much instantly hit. On May 08 2010 17:58 Foolishness wrote: And oh, I also pushed for Zona to get modkilled. But I suppose the fact we both wanted him dead only strengthens your innocence and not mine. I'm just going to say now your "analysis" is probably going to include something along the lines of "See how Foolishness wanted to modkill Zona and Hobbes? He knew Zona was mia so he was just trying to fool us all into thinking he's innocent." Am I right? Am I right? Am I right? That was my devious plan from the beginning. Modkill my mafia buddy to prove me innocent. Not to mention modkill my PARDONER mafia buddy, who could save me from lynch. And now that I think about it, if I was mafia with him, we might actually have this game in the bag had he been alive. With a pardon, and 2 kills each night, I think we'd win no matter what (definitely need to double check the numbers, I'm too tired to do so). So yes, I gave up a possible auto win to modkill my mafia buddy to try to prove my innocence, and hope to avoid 2 days' worth of lynches. You found out my plan. GG. Pushing for Zona to be modkilled doesn't exactly get you anywhere. How would you look if you had been fighting against him getting modkilled? Especially if you had only been fighting against HIM and not Hobbes too? I don't think that really gets you anything either way. And a pardoner mafia buddy still can't pardon if he isn't around to do so. My analysis wasn't going to mention this at all, but thanks for highlighting that it does nothing for or against you. But don't you worry. I have a real analysis coming on you. | ||
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On May 08 2010 18:06 Qatol wrote: Actually, there is a mistake in your analysis. Here is what you said: 5 1 - mislynch 4 1 - mafia kill an innocent 3 1 - mislynch 2 1 - lynch ends the game? I see a missing night hit. Town still only gets 2 lynches no matter who we lynch. If you think my biggest strength was ever behavioral analysis, you seriously need to reread mafia 4. However, I still found Zona, didn't I? Why have I been making those arguments on numbers? Well have they been wrong yet? Actually, they have been 100% correct so far. I said that the mafia likely didn't pick two of the same number. So far we have seen a [6][1], [8][1], and [12][1]. I said that after we found sidesprang and darth were mafia, JeeJee was cleared. Notice how he was pretty much instantly hit. Pushing for Zona to be modkilled doesn't exactly get you anywhere. How would you look if you had been fighting against him getting modkilled? Especially if you had only been fighting against HIM and not Hobbes too? I don't think that really gets you anything either way. And a pardoner mafia buddy still can't pardon if he isn't around to do so. My analysis wasn't going to mention this at all, but thanks for highlighting that it does nothing for or against you. But don't you worry. I have a real analysis coming on you. Obviously I would've just not said anything when it came time. Instead of saying "just kill them both". So you saying Zona is mafia before we find out says your innocent. Me agreeing with you on the fact then telling Ace to modkill him doesn't make me innocent? Oh wait you're a vet. I forgot that normal mafia rules don't apply to you, and that you are superior to all. All hail Qatol. He figured out my plan to modkill my own teammate to make me look innocent. You lynch me today, there will be 1 mafia and 5 townspeople. It will go to night time. After night time, there will be 1 mafia and 4 townspeople. Let's say you mislynch, so there are 1 mafia and 3 townspeople. It goes to night, mafia kill, there will be 1 mafia and 2 townspeople. It goes to day. Town gets to lynch. That's 3 lynches total. And a total of 3 days pass (including today). Let's say you toss away your vet ego and think rationally (I know this won't happen, but I'm an optimist when it comes to people changing). So you decide to not lynch me. Let's say we mislynch. 1 mafia and 5 townspeople. It goes to night. Mafia get to kill, and I get to kill. 1 mafia and 3 townspeople. It's day time. We mislynch we lose. That's 3 lynches total (2 at day, and the 1 whoever you pick me to kill). And a total of 2 days pass (including today). Your math is wrong. You do law. I do math. I know your a vet and that's supposed to make you smarter than me, but it doesn't. Oh by the way guys, I purposely modkilled my mafia teammate even though we could have possibly instantly won. | ||
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
Is this your slipup as mafia? xD As in, oh hey, if I die there's 5 townies left. xP | ||
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
So FoS is on you Foolishness. xD But I still say we lynch someone today, compvig someone tonight, and then kill Foolishness tomorrow. So at least we would have all 3 attempts at lynching someone. | ||
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
I'll assume best case scenario and say Hobbes was modkilled, but Zona wasn't. So that's 2 mafia/6 townspeople. If you guys mislynch it'll be game over, that's pretty obvious. If you lynch one of us, Zona pardons and it goes to night. We would kill 2. So that's 2 mafia/4 townspeople. You lynch the same person you chose before, since I'm assuming Zona cannot pardon the same person twice. That'd be 1 mafia/4 townspeople. If I was alive I'd kill 2, but that wouldn't be game over, Zona would only be able to kill one if I died, and that wouldn't be game over either. So there wasn't an instant win. But we could have forced the town into a situation where if they mislynch they lose, which is really really good for the mafia. But I gave that up anyways, even knowing that I'd probably be number 1 lynch candidate. All hail Qatol. | ||
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
So we can all just kind of freely express our opinion without like omg u mafia with him! | ||
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On May 08 2010 18:25 Korynne wrote: Uh Foolishness. There's 6 of us left. So after we lynch you we're left with 1 mafia and 4 townspeople. Is this your slipup as mafia? xD As in, oh hey, if I die there's 5 townies left. xP Oh there's 6 of us left total. Wow oops. One of your earlier posts implied there were 6 townspeople so I assumed that. It's late, oh well. My bad on that. | ||
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On May 08 2010 18:29 Korynne wrote: FOOLISHNESS U CAN'T COUNT THERE ARE SIX OF US LEFT... YEAH MY BAD I REALIZE NOW | ||
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
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