EPTThe Life Aquatic Mini Mafia
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
VOTE: ABSENSON Sorry bro. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
You know who I meant anyway. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
I will be in class for a while, then I will post some analysis. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
On April 28 2010 06:39 johnnyspazz wrote: in any other game, i would've probably also voted for abenson but since this is such a small game, i didn't. i just feel like you rushed your vote. atleast you are explaining yourself and looking more green to me. brownbear and hobbes on the other hand need to start talking. Vote: BrownBear Shit, now I have to defend myself in both games?  I voted for Abenson for 3 reasons: 1. I read Korynne's post: QUOTE]On April 26 2010 06:44 Korynne wrote: Vote Abenson Reason: He's brought up rather stupid things twice already, which is way more than anyone else. #1 LAL Policy Pretty impossible to verify obviously, not to mention if we catch someone lying we can easily deal with it (ie. someone is mafia, lies and says he is townie, lynch him, no brainer. someone is medic and lies and says he is townie to protect himself, obviously we shouldn't lynch him). Either way, this is such an arbitrary idea and plenty of people have poked plenty of holes in it. #2 Someone claiming DT and lynching a townie Well DUH if someone claims he rolechecked someone and claims that the rolecheck turns out mafia then CLEARLY the guy is lying and is either mafia or a COMPLETELY RETARDED townie If you are townie and you think someone is scum you don't claim them to be mafia through rolecheck. You provide good evidence to town that he is mafia and get him lynched that way. Completely dumb example. >.> Given that this is day 1, I don't think I will find someone else who is being as distracting to the town (this reminds me of BM assassin plan in the other mafia game where everyone just ends up talking about it for like 5 pages even though it's completely useless) so I am voting for Abenson unless something else turns out.[/QUOTE] and it makes sense. I liked the LaL policy at first, but then I thought about it seriously, and yeah, it's pretty dumb. 2. Abenson's track record. He tends to go inactive and be useless. We usually don't have anything to go on on day 1 anyway, so, hey, y'know, that's at least a starting point. Is it kind of a crapshoot? Yes, but then, most day 1 voting is. 3. At that point, there were 5 votes on Abenson already, so my vote essentially did not matter. I could have voted for anyone and Abenson still would have been lynched. So why do you care? As for who to vote for today: Looks like today's punching bag of choice is d3, at least so far, so lets analyze! First, XeliN's PM: On April 28 2010 11:43 XeliN wrote: This is a PM conversation I have had with d3_cresentia, read from the bottom up, first message is his to me + Show Spoiler + From: d3_crescentia [ 1353 posts | Profile | Buddy ] Subject: Re: are you green? Date: 4/28/10 11:25 I asked if you were green. You said you wouldn't say your role but that you're pro-town. This lead me to believe you were blue, not green - which is why I brought up the curious case of Shockeyy and Ace. Now you say you don't actually have a night action? ----------------------------------------- Original Message: I never said I had a night action, where are you getting this from? ----------------------------------------- Original Message: who did you use your night action on? ----------------------------------------- Original Message: lol is it really that curious that I would say that, what were you expecting "no actually I am mafia!" On brownbear, to me there just simply seems too little info to go on, he has posted sparcely but done nothing overtly mafialike to me and I am far more concerned with others, RoL for one thing as he has had no input whatsoever so far this game. Whats your plan to get more info on Johnny or is it one your keeping close to the chest? ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Curious that you'd say that. It reminds of the one time when Shockeyy roleclaimed to Ace in PM and then Ace got lynched him for it. I think I now understand why Ace did that, even though Shockeyy flipped blue. Did Radfield say anything interesting last night? Sort of curious. I don't have a strong opinion on Johnny yet, but I think I know a way about how to get more information. What about BrownBear? ----------------------------------------- Original Message: You are correct sir! Won't say my actual role but yeah I am pro-town. What are your thoughts on Johnny? im wavering between him actually being suspicious or me just thinking he is because he jumped on an opportunity to cast suspicion on me and tbh i always tend to think people who accuse me are red when I am a town role. Korynne seems somewhat consistent with his posting style in the other mafia game and on a purely statistical basis he is more likely to be green in that one so good sign possibly. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: I think you are green Quite frankly I think it is exceptionally scumlike, he is essentially trying to guage whether or not I am a blue role (or possibly double bluffing trying to see if I am red will no doubt be his argument) but this is most certainly not something that a pro-town player would do, everything about it reeks of scumlike behaviour tbh and currently my Vote is on: d3_cresentia Furthermore, here is Bill Murray's list of potential layouts (it's Radfield's quote, but it's still correct): On April 25 2010 00:55 Radfield wrote: We have 4 possible setup options: Setup 1 1 roleblocker 1 goon 5 townies 1 detective 1 medic - Setup 2 1 mafia goon 1 mafia roleblocker 7 townies - Setup 3 2 mafia goons 1 cop 6 townies - Setup 4 2 mafia goons 1 medic 6 townies Notice how our options are: cop, medic, detective. All of these have a night action. Yet d3 says he has none. Whoops. If you were green, you would have just claimed "townie" and that would have been it. So you're either blue or red, but you have no night action? Either: You are scum, You are actually blue, but you're just an idiot. Afterwards, he votes for himself. Out of spite? If he really were blue, he'd probably be defending himself far more vigorously. Thus, I think he's scum. Vote: d3_cresentia | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
I really feel that this list of 3 (RoL, Korynne, me), is setting up a fight between townies that we really can't afford at this point. I know for a fact that I am town, so that would mean that Korynne and RoL would then be mafia (I think I learned my lesson about posting evidence ), but I also realize that the lynch target is probably me, for the following reasons:I'm not particularly active I voted d3_cresentia yesterday (what was I thinking?) I just got modkilled in another game for being a dumbass I'm not particularly active. I VOTED FOR THE DETECTIVE HURR DURR So now I'm caught in the REALLY awesome position of knowing who the mafia are (RoL and Korynne), but also being able to do absolutely jack shit about it. So, in my defense, I'm merely going to say this: We have one shot, town. Korynne and RoL are the two mafia goons, please please lynch one of them and not me. You all die too if we screw this up, and we have one shot left. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
On April 30 2010 22:25 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: lol? I am playing it safe. I personally have no way of confirming you or hobbes as town, for all I know you two could be the mafia. Like I said to you in PM's, On this day we need to be careful more so then ever. Lets say you and hobbes are mafia and this is an plan you guys worked up to get one of us to preemptively vote on us and then you can stack? I have seen elaborate shit happen like that before so excuse me if I don't immediately jump the gun and assume everything you say is 100% true. Korynne has confirmed that what d3 says is truth (a last ditch attempt to save her ass?) which would mean that people from both sides have confirmed what d3 pm'd as true, which lends it some credibility. Also, you do realize why I'm not voting? If I vote, and we're all wrong, 2 mafia will jump our ass, lynch whoever I voted for, and we're screwed. I'm not gonna be the first to vote. Why don't you follow your own logic and vote yourself? | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
1: (The most likely option IMO) XeliN and Korynne are telling the truth, and d3's rolechecks are legit. If this is the case, then RoL and Korynne are both mafia, in which case, we will win. 2: (The least likely option) XeliN is lying, and he and hobbes are in fact the mafia. Korynne jumped on the bandwagon of saying "yeah, those are d3's rolechecks" to appear pro-town, but is inadvertently screwing us over. I don't think Korynne would do that, so I'm going to say this is 99% not true. 3: (Not as likely as option 1, but something to think about) XeliN and Korynne, the two who came out and said "Hey guys look d3's rolechecks" are actually the mafia. XeliN says that he and hobbes are town, which means hobbes (who is actually town) doesn't suspect him, due to the "evidence". All Korynne has to do is survive one day of suspicion, and the mafia have won. This is something some people haven't noticed yet: It's 3 town to 2 mafia. Unless we lynch mafia today, the game is over, because the lynch and nightkill will make it 2 mafia to 1 town. Now, let's look at my 3 possible scenarios. I'm going to discount 2, because that happening would be crazy mad fucked-up, so that leaves 1 and 3. Thus, here are the options: 1: Mafia are RoL and Korynne 3: Mafia are XeliN and Korynne At this point in the game, the mafia can afford to play a little more fast and loose with their teamwork. I think it's entirely possible that one would vote for the other, and if a bandwagon starts and they get lynched, then hey, the other mafia looks extremely pro-town, and he's got a pretty good chance of living. Now, the question is this. Which of the three to lynch? RoL: Pros: He seems to be the most scummy of the three, hobbes thinks he's scum (and I'm sure at this point hobbes is town), Korynne has a good point page 12 that he's inactive as shit Cons: He's only mafia in one of these scenarios, if we fuck up we are screwed. Korynne: Pros: She is mafia in both of the situations I think are most likely, she's provided some wonderful, insightful analysis on a bunch of townies that ended up getting them lynched. Cons: She's active, she's a good player. XeliN Pros: He could be a very very very sneaky mafia? If he is, he's honestly played the most undercover mafia I've ever seen in any game, both on and offline. Cons: Probably the least likely to be mafia out of the above 3, we can't afford to fuck this up. So from my analysis, as tempting as it might be to just vote RebirthofLegend for being inactive, we don't have the luxury of just voting inactives off the island anymore: we need a mafia. And sadly, if my analysis is correct, in either case Korynne's gonna flip red. Sorry, bro (ladies is bros too  )Also, it was cute how you went from, in page 12, being like "Oh, BrownBear's active, we shouldn't lynch him first" to, on this page, being "HEY GUYS BROWNBEARS INACTIVE AS SHIT WHAT THE HELL MAN" the instant the FoS got pointed on you. VOTE: KORYNNE | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
I really hope you guys were right. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
I really think voting RoL (yet) is a bad idea. We can discuss who to lynch tomorrow, but Korynne must die tonight for us to continue. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
But I guess at this point it's up to fate. I mean, if you want to convince me of RoL's redness, feel free. I feel like you're using your confirmed green-ness as both a shield and a weapon here, but trolling the pages since the last lynch, there is not one shred of evidence in my mind that RoL is red, and there is significant evidence that Korynne is. So, I'm voting with what I can see. I do look forward to your reasoning why RoL is mafia. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
I'm sticking to my guns, for what it's worth. Swapping my vote now to try and convince you of my innocence would be pointless, and it's better to go down swinging for the fences. If RoL flips mafia, i'll vote Korynne tomorrow again. It'll basically be down to me and her trying to convince either you or Hobbes that the other is mafia, as I'm obviously not going to die tonight unless someone pulls a really really bonehead move. If RoL flips town, then we lose. I'll be awaiting the results. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
On May 01 2010 14:21 XeliN wrote: Oh damn I forgot one of us is going to die, Hobbes if you are the one left alive my choice would be Korynne, brownbear being capable of completely misunderstanding the situation seems logical, he also did something rlly idiotic in the other game but I can't remember what, and also it makes no sense that he would argue in that was as mafia (as it is just so plain far fetched in many ways). So yeah my choice would be Korynne and I would say that is by a large majority in my mind, but if you are left alive come to your own conclusion. For you now who is most likely? Psst, check your PM, brah | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
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