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TL Mafia XXII

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AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 16 2010 06:24 GMT
#148
Sign me up yo
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 17 2010 23:06 GMT
#279
On April 18 2010 07:58 madnessman wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 18 2010 07:42 d3_crescentia wrote:
2) BC, we can't establish DT circles in this game because there are no PMs allowed, so this strategy seems pretty invalid as well.
I've already brought this up, and BC has replied.
Show nested quote +
On April 18 2010 06:28 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
On April 18 2010 06:12 madnessman wrote:
On April 18 2010 05:47 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
On April 18 2010 05:36 Zona wrote:
Hah, as I post you I see that you are still making arguments based on the idea DTs can PM. Confirmed townies are somewhat useful in a game without out of thread communications, but are a LOT LESS USEFUL THAN FINDING MAFIA. When a town member has to be publicly confirmed, the value is a lot less.

I would like you to elaborate on your "town circle" idea in this game where no town members have the ability to PM. If you truly believe you are right and I am wrong, you should have no problem explaining how it would work to benefit the town.



If you are unable to figure out how a DT can create a town circle by clearing townies in this format I have no inclination to tell you. IT IS INSANELY EASY. Dropping mafia down to a list of x people is alot easier than sacrificing a DT for one red. As hey, I doubt we have 1 dt for every red. Remember, with millers around a checked red is never a confirmed red. Whereas a checked green or blue is more likely town as only 1 gf is alive to infiltrate. Assassins show up as what they are.
I would have to agree with Zona and say that it seemed pretty clear cut to me that nobody besides mafia are granted the ability to PM. It'd be really complicated and confusing. If you're a special blue role (say DT), and you PM a green role, he/she would be unable to respond. If you PM a red role, is the mafia member allowed to PM you back? Mafia are given the ability to PM, but that's assuming it's for use within their own mafia circle to choose their hits. And then mafia would know you have a special blue role.. If you PM a fellow blue role, you may only start your town circle if he/she has also been granted special PMing abilities. So basically, you'd be PMing people based on a hunch that they are blue, and I suppose there's a decent chance that you end up PMing a fellow blue if you're good at behavioral analysis. But then he/she might not also have the special PM ability. And just by PMing somebody, you're giving away information that you have a special role. So yeah... flamewheel creating special PM abilities just seemed very unlikely and too complicated to moderate.

Either way, I think Zona has cleared it up that forming town circles are impossible since town-aligned players don't have PM abilities. So I'm not exactly sure what you're arguing in the quote above o_O.


You do not need PM's to form town circles. Seriously. Only the Dt's can form the circle effectively. I make reference to if they have the ability use it. If not you play without it, its pretty simple. In this game, with 38 players there will be anywhere between 2 and 4 dts most likely, lets for this argument say there are 3. Those 3 are able to form a circle easily. Hell, even greens can form a town circle with a bit of work, but it takes alot more work on their part than dts.
I interpret this to mean that BC thinks a good plan of action would be for DT's to garner a list of confirmed townies/blue roles, and then post them publicly so as to create a 'town circle'. I've personally always thought that 'town circle' implied private communication, but I guess I'm mistaken... The thing about this plan is that it would require the DT to roleclaim later on in the game. Sure, by putting him/herself in the public sphere, medics will know who to protect. But with mafia role blocker and assassins, I don't know whether the town and DT will necessarily be in a better off position because the DT can't have guaranteed protection. I agree with BC in that there are definitely pros to knowing who the DT has checked, so mad hatters/vigils don't hit the wrong people, and DT's don't waste hits checking people who have already been checked, etc etc. But I don't want to sacrifice a DT for the sake of knowing 2-3 confirmed townies. I guess the DT should see first what roles he is able to collect from role checks, and determine whether he thinks his information is worth the risk of RCing (eg. if he has found mafia, he might think it more important to publicly share his list with the town)...


DTs should of course show discretion on when they RC in order to post their list, but they have to do it at some point, otherwise what good are they? One person's non-RC'd opinion probably won't be able to sway the town to lynch mafia/not lynch townies, especially when there are no clues.
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 18 2010 03:31 GMT
#325
On April 18 2010 12:01 Bill Murray wrote:

The first half of the list is required to assassinate the 2nd half of the list. The list will be inverted the next day so everyone will get their turn to kill someone if they are an assassin. They won't want to be using their kills up every single night anyways, as they can use a Detective Check on the alternate night. I will be cutting the game list into a 1/2 order. 1s are killers, 2s are killees. It will switch the next night. If you are a killer or a killee, don't complain. In all likelihood you won't have to kill or be killed, as we are not sure how many assassins there are. If the mafia kill a killee in the night, we skip a lynch to balance it (hypothetically), but if they kill a killer then we will lynch the killee of the person that they killed the killer of. I hope this is making sense to you. If anyone has any questions about the Bill Murray plan of town success let me know. This plan will help the town as it will be putting mafia players in vulnerable "killee" positions in which they would potentially lynch the "killer". We use the assassins to win as a town. They COUNT as town people, so assassins will want the town to win. It will also be giving them chances to win the game for theirselves through killing other assassins and finding assassins that they can kill at any time during the night that we aren't asking them to kill for us. If they find an assassin, they can breadcrumb a message to us previously or something to let us know BEFORE they do the action that they will be killing an alternate person (this will guarantee that they stay town as we let them go towards their goal while we go towards our goal together). I don't want assassins to claim at first, but it will become obvious after the first 2 cycles on who they are anyways, so we can be a lot more organized after the first couple day/night cycles.


I lost confidence in your plan and stopped reading it when I came across the bolded line. Here is the description of the role of the assasin:

The Assassin is this game's third party candidate! Except for, there may be more than one? To complete his/her win objective, the Assassin is to find and kill all the other Assassins in the game. Assassins will be told in their role PMs how many Assassins there are in the game, but nobody beyond them will know. Assassins show up as Assassins to role checks. To clarify the Assassin's win objectives: The Assassin wins alone, and must complete his mission before the war between the town and the mafia ends. The Assassin counts toward the number of town-aligned people for counting town vs. mafia purposes.

So, the assassin does not win if all the mafia die. I don't completely understand your plan, and it might still be good, but it seems you came up with it off of an incorrect assumption so I'm going to need an explanation for why you thought that and if you still think your plan is valid.
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 19 2010 08:21 GMT
#610
I still have my suspicions about BM, but I'm willing to change my vote to lynch an inactive due to good reasons brought up numerous times in the last few pages.
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 20 2010 01:19 GMT
#785
FFFFFUUUUU bad luck with krndandaman...

and... I guess it's neutral that an assassin was killed, since they have no incentive to kill mafia and might end up killing townies in finding assassins? I'm really not sure how that's going to affect things.
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 22 2010 01:07 GMT
#1227
Ok, apologies for being inactive in the past couple days; this is my finals week, so I've been working madly on projects/studying. I have a final on friday, but after that I should be quite active assuming I'm not killed by then.

I'd like to discuss an obvious issue which hasn't yet gotten too much attention.

I am going to go with the assumption that Ace is a detective, assassin, or another non mafia role. I believe this to be the case because if he was mafia, he would not want to claim caller was mafia after a "rolecheck" and have him flip townie and therefore suffer a lynch the next day, lowing mafia KP. The only way I see for this not to be the case is if the mafia went for a very risky strategy hoping that caller was a miller and succeeded, but that's just not likely at all. Ok, so it seems that Ace is not mafia, and most likely is a detective or assassin due to his pointing out caller as red after a rolecheck.

Now that I have justified that assumption, let's think about what that implies about the people who voted for caller:

Voted for caller:
Ace
Falcynn
nAi.PrOtOsS
Incognito
DarthThienAn
RebirthOfLeGenD
motbob
meeple
IntoTheWow
Scaramanga
Korynne
RaGe
d3_crescentia
Osmoses
Scamp
Caller

Are these people likely or unlikely to be scum?

Since ace "rolechecked" caller, there was a good case for townies to lynch him. So mafia knew that enough townies would vote to lynch caller, but they also knew caller would flip green. As such, I believe that most if not all people on that list are not mafia. If the town were to focus on people on this list (which is commonly the case when a green is lynched) they would be completely wasting their time, which is great for mafia. Drawing on this observation, here are the people that are left:

BrownBear
tree.hugger
KF91
iNfuNdiBuLuM
BloodyC0bbler
Bill Murray
Fishball
Abenson
JadeFist
Roffles
nbtnbt5
love1another
AcrossFiveJulys
madnessman

So therefore AcrossFiveJulys must be mafia. Wait...

But anyway, that's a juicy list, and I think we should focus on those people.

AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 22 2010 01:36 GMT
#1229
And by the way... exactly HALF of the people on the list I just posted voted to lynch jpak, here they are...

BloodyC0bbler
Fishball
KF91
Abenson
RebirthOfLeGend
BrownBear (aka zona before)
madnessman

AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 22 2010 01:40 GMT
#1230
Oh minus rebirthoflegend
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 22 2010 01:46 GMT
#1233
..and also minus madnessman wow wtf am i doing sorry about that

Ok, the actual non-caller list intersected with the jpak list:

BloodyC0bbler
Fishball
KF91
Abenson
Brownbear
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 22 2010 01:49 GMT
#1235
@ crescentia, I'm not saying that list picks up all the mafia, I'm saying it's more likely to include mafia, especially when intersected with the jpak list. I agree that other posting behaviors should be taken into account; perhaps others might step in and scrutinize the 5 people on the list I just posted?
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 22 2010 04:56 GMT
#1252
1 more vote to double lynch, cmon people...
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 22 2010 06:21 GMT
#1258
On April 22 2010 15:07 BrownBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 22 2010 10:36 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
And by the way... exactly HALF of the people on the list I just posted voted to lynch jpak, here they are...

BloodyC0bbler
Fishball
KF91
Abenson
RebirthOfLeGend
BrownBear (aka zona before)
madnessman




Hey. Not entirely fair implicating me for something the dude before me did.


Well that doesn't change your role...
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 23 2010 05:12 GMT
#1311
Incognito, I'm rather insulted that you put me on the inactive list. I've been trying to take a more active role in the town in the past few pages, if you would take the time to look. Also, your inactive list is incomplete. For example, I haven't seen falcynn post in days, but he's been voting.
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 23 2010 05:36 GMT
#1321
On April 23 2010 14:31 Falcynn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 23 2010 14:12 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Incognito, I'm rather insulted that you put me on the inactive list. I've been trying to take a more active role in the town in the past few pages, if you would take the time to look. Also, your inactive list is incomplete. For example, I haven't seen falcynn post in days, but he's been voting.
I'm still following the thread fairly closely, just haven't had anything that I felt I should say. Earlier in the thread someone accused me of being a useless chatterbox, and looking at my posts here I'd say that's pretty accurate, so I just wanted to make sure I had a handle over everything before I start making more random posts/jumping on bandwagons.

Probably once night is over I'll try to make/post some of my assumptions based on whether or not BC/RoL die before the next day.


Wow, impulsive defense for inactivity with an excuse already tucked away in your back pocket? Mafia much?
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 23 2010 05:45 GMT
#1324
On April 23 2010 14:37 Incognito wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 23 2010 14:36 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
On April 23 2010 14:31 Falcynn wrote:
On April 23 2010 14:12 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Incognito, I'm rather insulted that you put me on the inactive list. I've been trying to take a more active role in the town in the past few pages, if you would take the time to look. Also, your inactive list is incomplete. For example, I haven't seen falcynn post in days, but he's been voting.
I'm still following the thread fairly closely, just haven't had anything that I felt I should say. Earlier in the thread someone accused me of being a useless chatterbox, and looking at my posts here I'd say that's pretty accurate, so I just wanted to make sure I had a handle over everything before I start making more random posts/jumping on bandwagons.

Probably once night is over I'll try to make/post some of my assumptions based on whether or not BC/RoL die before the next day.


Wow, impulsive defense for inactivity with an excuse already tucked away in your back pocket? Mafia much?


Yeah, could you do me a favor and kill him?


Sure. Dead by tomorrow.

If he doesn't die tonight, though, I think he's a good candidate to be one of the lynchees tomorrow depending on how the RoL/BC conflict resolves itself tonight.
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 23 2010 06:02 GMT
#1331
On April 23 2010 14:50 Incognito wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 23 2010 14:45 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
On April 23 2010 14:37 Incognito wrote:
On April 23 2010 14:36 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
On April 23 2010 14:31 Falcynn wrote:
On April 23 2010 14:12 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Incognito, I'm rather insulted that you put me on the inactive list. I've been trying to take a more active role in the town in the past few pages, if you would take the time to look. Also, your inactive list is incomplete. For example, I haven't seen falcynn post in days, but he's been voting.
I'm still following the thread fairly closely, just haven't had anything that I felt I should say. Earlier in the thread someone accused me of being a useless chatterbox, and looking at my posts here I'd say that's pretty accurate, so I just wanted to make sure I had a handle over everything before I start making more random posts/jumping on bandwagons.

Probably once night is over I'll try to make/post some of my assumptions based on whether or not BC/RoL die before the next day.


Wow, impulsive defense for inactivity with an excuse already tucked away in your back pocket? Mafia much?


Yeah, could you do me a favor and kill him?


Sure. Dead by tomorrow.

If he doesn't die tonight, though, I think he's a good candidate to be one of the lynchees tomorrow depending on how the RoL/BC conflict resolves itself tonight.


So you ARE a vig/Assassin. Thanks for letting us know! I knew I could trust you.


You too right? let's both kill falcynn in case a medic tries to protect him ~_~
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 23 2010 06:20 GMT
#1336
On April 23 2010 15:10 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 23 2010 15:01 Incognito wrote:
On April 23 2010 14:53 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:
Honestly when I signed up for this I didnt expect it to be so indepth and so much work. Also it seems when ever I post I make an idiot out of myself and further prove myself to be mafia. Since I am town and want to not get voted out so my team can win I have just sat back and not posted, except to defend myself so I hopefully don't get voted out by my teammates.


Oh hello there. Let me just quote myself (and L by proxy?):

On March 17 2010 13:07 Incognito wrote:
Like L said previously in response to ~OpZ~'s long defense posts, defending yourself doesn't do that much good unless you have a solid case. Sadly, you don't. So instead of trying to defend yourself, start generating some content.


To late for generating content. If you have already convinced yourselves that I am mafia then no amount of content will change that. No matter what I say it will be overanalyzed and used as "evidence" as to why I am mafia. I will save you a vote and go inactive next day cycle, and get modkilled.


How very noble: sacrificing yourself for the good of the town. Are you TRYING to make yourself look worse?
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 23 2010 06:22 GMT
#1338
Just to be clear, nai.protoss, it's only night, so if you want to improve the way you're being perceived, quit your whining and start analyzing so we can get some good vig hits.
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 23 2010 07:39 GMT
#1359
I actually would say yes, protect RoL, because the mafia know whether or not he's a detective. Here's my proposed plan:

Vig, kill BC.
--If BC flips mafia: yay, we got a mafia kill, and we know that RoL is either a trustworthy detective or an assassin. Now we can choose 2 targets for the double lynch and hopefully bag at least 1 more mafioso.
--If BC flips town: we lynch RoL for a mafia kill and hopefully get another through the double lynch

Medics, protect RoL and Ace. Why the hell should Incognito be protected? Sure, he comes off as pro town and I trust him more than most people right now, but he could easily be mafia trying to shepard the town into trusting him. Further, he has not claimed any kind of blue role, so while he brings forth good analysis we are better off protecting our (most likely) detective Ace and (potential) detective RoL.
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 23 2010 07:42 GMT
#1360
Korynne, looks like we're on the same wavelength. You are either a clear townie or extremely well disguised scum.
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 23 2010 07:49 GMT
#1363
And by the way, it would be great to hear some thoughts from BC and RoL because neither of them have been active tonight.
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 23 2010 07:53 GMT
#1364
On April 23 2010 16:49 meeple wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 23 2010 16:39 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
I actually would say yes, protect RoL, because the mafia know whether or not he's a detective. Here's my proposed plan:

Vig, kill BC.
--If BC flips mafia: yay, we got a mafia kill, and we know that RoL is either a trustworthy detective or an assassin. Now we can choose 2 targets for the double lynch and hopefully bag at least 1 more mafioso.
--If BC flips town: we lynch RoL for a mafia kill and hopefully get another through the double lynch

Medics, protect RoL and Ace. Why the hell should Incognito be protected? Sure, he comes off as pro town and I trust him more than most people right now, but he could easily be mafia trying to shepard the town into trusting him. Further, he has not claimed any kind of blue role, so while he brings forth good analysis we are better off protecting our (most likely) detective Ace and (potential) detective RoL.


You're not worried about wasting precious medic protection on an unproven detective, who might be an assasin?


Read what I wrote more carefully. The point is, he could be a detective, and the mafia will surely try to kill him tonight if he is, and plus we can lynch him tomorrow if it turned out he was BSing on the rolecheck since BC will die tonight. There is much more reason to protect him than incognito.
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 23 2010 08:02 GMT
#1366
I say the medics independently protect Ace with 2/3 probability and RoL with 1/3 probability. It would be disastrous to lose Ace so he should be the focus of protection, but we also need to deter mafia from hitting RoL.
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 23 2010 08:19 GMT
#1368
I think those numbers are good. Mafia probably won't bother to try hitting Ace, and if they go for RoL at least they will have to waste 2KP rather than 1.

Of course, this is all on the assumption that there are exactly 3 medics left; for all we know, there could be 2 or 4 left.
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 23 2010 08:21 GMT
#1370
Small correction, I meant that post is on the assumption that there are 2 medics left, and there could be 1 or 3 left (4 seems unlikely)
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 23 2010 12:11 GMT
#1374
I have a theory about JadeFist. Here's his only non-signup post:


Voted Caller.

Last time I played decafchicken, a long time forum veteran, was the Godfather. I feel like the choice for mafia members is not entirely random and I wouldn't be surprised if a forum "celebrity" such as Caller was mafia.


He whined that the roles are rigged by the host. This makes it look to me as if he wanted an "important" role, but got townie and is not interested in the game. He could be mafia and hoping to make us think just that, but I think for now we have bigger fish to fry.
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 23 2010 12:24 GMT
#1376
maybe you're right meeple. what do you think about that post, then? Do you think he was trying to be misleading?
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
May 02 2010 17:18 GMT
#1779
On May 01 2010 17:05 Incognito wrote:
Also AcrossFiveJulys, why did you decide to hit me?


You were posting a lot that important night which suggested to me that you had some kind of non vanilla townie role. So I narrowed you down to either assassin or mafia, because you were baiting me to admit I could kill or give myself away somehow, since both assassin and mafia want to track down people with killing power. You were also one of my assassin suspects because of half your posts up to that point had something to do with assassins. I decided to kill you because killing mafia at that point would be good for me (town was losing so it would prolong the game, and reduces # of people being killed) and I wasn't likely to be lynched because I made an effort to appear obvious townie.

I tried to orchestrate things so that vigilante kills would be on my assassin suspects and medic protects would be on my non-assassin suspects, but the medics sort of did w/e the hell they wanted that night and the vigilantes didnt do shit.
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
May 07 2010 22:12 GMT
#1784
Just for the record, I had a feeling that bill murray was red since the first day as evidenced by my first few posts and vote, and knew that incognito was either red or assassin. So I don't think incognito deserves congratulations for his red play if someone as new as me could so easily filter him as non town aligned.
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