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TL Mafia XVIII - Page 6

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 15 2010 09:02 GMT
#989
Bill Murray is the safest option to be in office as he is the most likely to be on the townside.


I am the only person that I am 100% sure is town.
I will be going to bed shortly, had a fun night with this.

In relation to the clues, I'd like to continue to press that d3_crescentia (although possibly a red herring like DoctorH said), Bloodyc0bbler, 789, Ace are the only people who have solidly fit the clues from my perspective.

I would advise people not to vote based upon player habits, but on who you feel is most likely going to be town-aligned. we need at least one town-aligned player in office.
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 15 2010 10:42 GMT
#998
yes, why are you stealing my platform?
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 15 2010 10:56 GMT
#1001
On February 15 2010 06:53 redtooth wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
enough of this. time to get the ball rolling. please prepare for content because...

I AM ANNOUNCING MY CANDIDACY FOR MAYOR
[image loading]

PLATFORM
I am running for mayor. Some of you may know that I never run for any position regardless of my role, the reasons being similar to the ones Ver listed. However, I am willing to invest enough energy and effort to lead the town to victory.

I have participated in enough mafia games and have developed an adequate understanding of the game. My play so far has demonstrated that I am capable of the high level thinking required for mayor of the town.

Also, I am a Decision Science major at Carnegie Mellon. I play mafia for a living.

THE OTHER CANDIDATES
All of the other veterans running thus far (Ace, BC, L) have too much suspicion surrounding them to be good mayor candidates. Some of the other candidates are either jokes (Chezinu, MasterDana, l10f), or unproven so far in the game (meeple, DrH, citizen).

Electing Ver after how the early portion of the elections played out earlier is very very dangerous. I stated earlier that we should not vote for Ver but refrained from explicitly laying out the reasons why. Now that he has outright declared his candidacy, I guess it's time to share my thought process. Quoting an earlier PM I sent to someone:
2/14 16:21

logically it would make sense not to give Ver the "option" to step in and win the election. each mafia family will likely send out one mayor candidate and that makes elections hard enough. that's why we scrutinize the list of mayor candidates so thoroughly. if we give Ver the "option" of becoming mayor, he isn't scrutinized as much and when pressed on the idea that mafia families would push a member to candidacy he could say that he was "forced" into the position. or if a member of the same mafia family would be runner up in the votes then he could just step aside and use that fact later as defense.

now were he to have outright declared candidacy in the first place i wouldn't have minded voting for him. actually i probably would have voted for him. but that thought process would have been much different. he seems like such an attractive candidate now because he's smart and wasn't involved in any of the mess.
Ver has, knowingly or unknowingly, taken advantage of the opportunity and halfheartedly declared his candidacy. This is the exact position we wanted to avoid. Before I was planning on running for Mayor, I requested that he withdraw his candidacy but I think just explaining the reasons in public should be enough to show that electing him as mayor is unwise.

PRE-EMPTIVE DEFENSE
Some may be suspicious of me due to my somewhat passionate defense of Ace. As stated before, I have a high degree of respect for Ace and did not want to kill him off due to what I perceived as clue analysis on red herrings. I also don't believe any of the veterans should be killed to "gain interesting insight into how Incognito's clues are going to work" (quoted from [NyC]HoBbes).

My late entry into mayoral race shouldn't be regarded with too much suspicion either. Nobody expected the mayor candidates to be caught up in so much shit. I wasn't voted for prior to my announcement so my argument against Ver's candidacy doesn't apply to me.

LYNCH CANDIDATE
If elected mayor, I plan on lynching Bill Murray. There are obvious reasons (noted by Chezinu in a previous post) why we should be suspicious of him but there is much more to gain from lynching BM. So far he has presented himself as either a bad mafia or an idiot townie. Of course there is a chance that he flips green when mayor lynched and we waste a lynch but we get rid of a player that has a history of being detrimental to the town and isn't too valuable an asset to the town if he is indeed green. However, in the case that he flips red, we are provided with a wealth of information via the list that he posted.

So far Bill has yet to post a legitimate defense, choosing instead to make a string of five or so posts that amounts to a desperate strike back at those that accused him. This makes him highly suspicious in my book. I am planning on checking over his behavior in the last game he played but

FUTURE PLANS
To kill the mafia of course. We have to use our lynches to maximum efficiency and somehow get the DTs to broadcast their information without revealing their identity. Later on in the game, clue analysis should be more abundant than ever before because all players (mafia and town-aligned) benefit from the analysis.

If Bill Murray flips red then the focus should immediately shift to the list he posted. The most notable oddity in the list was the absence of Ace despite the mountain of suspicion surrounding him. Please also remember that I was on the list. If anything, it would make sense that either both of us are on the list (a mafia defending a fellow mafia), neither of us are on the list (a townie defending a fellow townie), or Ace is on but I'm not (a mistaken townie risking his neck to defend a mafia). It doesn't make sense that I am on the list but Ace is not (a mafia defending a random townie). Please note that my attempt to lynch Bill Murray isn't out of anger towards him due to my name being on the list. So as of now I would place Ace in the same 'group' as Bill Murray. Though I fought hard to defend Ace thus far, he is far from exonerated and L's clue analysis is as solid as you can possibly get with only Day 1 clues. That means, depending on what color Bill flips, Ace becomes highly suspicious once more.

Having said all that I feel that we should keep all the veterans alive as long as possible. They are capable of identifying mafia and (whether its through clue analysis or behavior analysis) call out individuals to lynch. Why is this beneficial for the town? Well as I stated earlier, town can't win if mafia takes out town first but at the same time a mafia family can't win unless they kill off the other mafia family. To identify and call out a mafia member in public would mean either the town or the opposing mafia family can kill that person off. Also, anyone who's been mafia before would know that killing off a veteran mafia member doesn't really get rid of their influence (due to reasons I don't want to state publicly).

tl;dr
You shouldn't vote for other mayor candidates due to various reasons. Vote for me. I am reasonable, logical, and have basic plans with more in the making. Most importantly, I am innocent.

Thank you for your time.


if you and I are the only candidates, why were you pushing for my lynch?
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 15 2010 10:57 GMT
#1002
On February 15 2010 19:42 redtooth wrote:
how is it logical to vote for anyone other than me and BM? seriously.


not exactly the only candidates, but the only ones worth voting for?
to me, i am, because i will flip green or black.
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 15 2010 21:11 GMT
#1063
I'm cautious to put redtooth in office because of his association with Ver, L, Chezinu, etc. who are all working together ... even Ace, Caller, and Citi.Zen are voting for him... why? You all say he's been acting like town, but where is your justification other than an argument he seems to copy from me? Secondly, he pmed me like this: "Kid <rest of message>" so I can't take him serious if he's going to speak like someone from Clan x17 on USEast. A pm from L contained "Cept redtooth and he's dumb". Even some of the "well-respected veterans" find redtooth to be unacceptable for mayor/pardoner in terms of intelligence.

onto ver, he has been trying to manipulate me from the start of the game:

"As I said my primary goal with voting is to make sure citizen does not get elected (extremely shady platform, votes from nowhere etc). I believe redtooth has a better likelihood of beating citizen than you do "

I'd like to see some evidence as to why you're worried about citi.zen, Ver.

University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 15 2010 21:21 GMT
#1072
well, you are behaving completely different than you did last game meeple.
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 15 2010 21:30 GMT
#1079
i'd like to point something out. if you say "this person is mafia" it is nearly flipping a coin as to whether or not you're right. the problem with this game is that they're going to be working together for a common goal, while the town has noone that they can trust/confide in to craft a plan for that common goal.

by "spamming the thread" with my campaign for office, and responding to people, I was simply trying to provide that to the town. Someone who is going to try to give a way for greens and blues to come together to actually try and discuss a common goal and how to achieve it.
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 15 2010 21:31 GMT
#1082
On February 16 2010 06:30 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 16 2010 06:28 L wrote:
Nikoner, not killing someone day 1 is generally a box of dumb. Even if it makes me look bad, its better to have 100% confirmable information for the town to work with regarding associations and whatnot.

My only fear is that ZERO people have pushed back against my claim against emp, and a number of people have tagged along well after i took pains to make it clear i wasn't dropping the accusation. Either one of the mafia teams is using him as a sacrifice to get, say, ver, to look good by supporting my position, or emp is green/blue and afk like a moron. Given his vote, it would seem that he isn't afk, which leads me to believe that killing him will at least give me some information. I'm actually more worried about how much information regarding clue interpretation for this game I can glean from a red or green flip than anything else.

Like i said; Grow some fucking balls.


It does seem strange to me that there was a big backlash at a strong clue connection to Ace but everyone accepted Empyrean rather quietly.

However, do consider the fact that there isn't really any herrings in the description of the radiant killer that point to anyone else. Empyrean simply fits. While Ace fits strongly, it was pointed out that 789 actually fits the clue profile very well also, so there is a bit more room for doubt.


How about the backlash against redtooth and then the fifteen votes he's gotten in a row?
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 15 2010 21:34 GMT
#1084
We can't just blindly post lists of confirmed mafia


Wouldn't they be possibly doing this through their voting habits which could lead to us not being able to prevent a stronger mafia from lynching someone if we've lost some medics/don't know who to protect.

what i mean is that their voting for mayor may end up clumping them together if they're dumb.
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 15 2010 21:35 GMT
#1086
On February 16 2010 06:32 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 16 2010 06:30 Bill Murray wrote:
i'd like to point something out. if you say "this person is mafia" it is nearly flipping a coin as to whether or not you're right. the problem with this game is that they're going to be working together for a common goal, while the town has noone that they can trust/confide in to craft a plan for that common goal.

by "spamming the thread" with my campaign for office, and responding to people, I was simply trying to provide that to the town. Someone who is going to try to give a way for greens and blues to come together to actually try and discuss a common goal and how to achieve it.


What does that mean? How does spamming the thread provide a way for everyone to work together in peace?

You aren't playing this game. All of your posts were empty accusations and finger pointing with no justification until I pestered it out of you. Saying "this person is mafia" is perfectly fine if you can support that with reason and argument.

"I know I am green" doesn't make anyone trust you.



when i was "spamming the thread" the way you're talking, by idiotically pointing my finger, noone was complaining. I was referring to last night around 5am EST.
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 15 2010 21:39 GMT
#1090
On February 16 2010 06:37 Nikoner wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 16 2010 06:28 L wrote:
Nikoner, not killing someone day 1 is generally a box of dumb. Even if it makes me look bad, its better to have 100% confirmable information for the town to work with regarding associations and whatnot.


Fair enough, but I'm wary of the possibility that lynching a mafia will lower one family's KP. If that situation persists for a decent amount of time, it could be bad for the town. I'd also like to point out that if Empyrean flips green, you really don't have that much regarding associations to work with. Neither you do if he flips red, to be honest, seeing as he hasn't posted much, unless I've missed something.



I'm not really wanting to talk a whole lot about game theory, as I feel that it sort of takes away from the town, but to nearly eliminate one mafia would not be detrimental if we had our medics still alive and could protect their remaining members (assuming we have 3 medics as someone said...)
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 15 2010 21:57 GMT
#1096
not impossible. see who mutually defended each other, voting habits.... personal messages...
there are ways to win.
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 15 2010 22:11 GMT
#1103
No. We won't see 3 sides appear. You know why? Because the town is unorganized as ****.
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 15 2010 23:28 GMT
#1139
Am I the only one worried about the fact that Ver, L, and Redtooth have seemed to be working together, and they're the 3 that are coming into office most likely?

I am very happy to see L and Redtooth not getting along, but they both seem to be getting along with Ver. Ver even said to me that he was voting for redtooth because he trusts him the most, but that if he had a second vote he would vote for me.... I just don't know. It seems like a load of shit to me.

The town needn't trust anyone so blindly
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 15 2010 23:30 GMT
#1143
We have 30 minutes to save the election.
I don't expect you all to run and vote for me, although that would provide me comfort that we have a green in office, but it would be nice if we could actually try to get someone from the town in office...

University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 15 2010 23:31 GMT
#1145
On February 16 2010 08:21 Ace wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 16 2010 08:21 L wrote:
On February 16 2010 08:19 redtooth wrote:
god damn it i said don't worry about chezinu L.

I'm not worried about him.

I'm worried about YOU.


and I'm worried about YOU.


This is called the bodyguard or mutual chainsaw defense isnt it?
when you attack someone who is attacking the person you are allied to..
regardless of what it's called, I read that it's a mafia tell.


If I am elected, I am going to lynch ACE
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 15 2010 23:35 GMT
#1151
On February 16 2010 08:32 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 16 2010 08:28 Bill Murray wrote:
Am I the only one worried about the fact that Ver, L, and Redtooth have seemed to be working together, and they're the 3 that are coming into office most likely?

I am very happy to see L and Redtooth not getting along, but they both seem to be getting along with Ver. Ver even said to me that he was voting for redtooth because he trusts him the most, but that if he had a second vote he would vote for me.... I just don't know. It seems like a load of shit to me.

The town needn't trust anyone so blindly


sometimes i wonder if you're reading the same thread as everyone else



no, but I have pms that you don't.
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 15 2010 23:39 GMT
#1156
On February 16 2010 08:21 Ace wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 16 2010 08:21 L wrote:
On February 16 2010 08:19 redtooth wrote:
god damn it i said don't worry about chezinu L.

I'm not worried about him.

I'm worried about YOU.


and I'm worried about YOU.




"Mutual Chainsaw Defense, where two players defend each other by attacking each others' attackers. This is a major scumtell,"
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 15 2010 23:41 GMT
#1157
On February 16 2010 08:32 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 16 2010 08:28 Bill Murray wrote:
Am I the only one worried about the fact that Ver, L, and Redtooth have seemed to be working together, and they're the 3 that are coming into office most likely?

I am very happy to see L and Redtooth not getting along, but they both seem to be getting along with Ver. Ver even said to me that he was voting for redtooth because he trusts him the most, but that if he had a second vote he would vote for me.... I just don't know. It seems like a load of shit to me.

The town needn't trust anyone so blindly


sometimes i wonder if you're reading the same thread as everyone else



you were threatened of being modkilled just 40 minutes ago, while i have been one of the most active posters in this thread in terms of activity. (although I will admit not all of my activity has been 100% beneficial to the town and I apologize for that)
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 15 2010 23:44 GMT
#1161
You just defended him blindly.
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
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