EPTOn February 15 2010 06:39 Bill Murray wrote:
L is arguing like mafia
L is arguing like mafia
oh look, another radical statement with ZERO reasoning behind it.
TL Mafia XVIII - Page 3
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
oh look, another radical statement with ZERO reasoning behind it. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On February 15 2010 07:12 Zato-1 wrote: I think you're missing one part of the equation, L. I have to thank Ver for this: Look at the other side of the coin: What should the mafia families do? Recently, there was a game in which DoctorHelvetica put on a pretty good performance as a Godfather pretending to be an active Town member. Now, ask yourselves this: would the mafia want to do such a thing in this game? No. In a standard game, mafia loses if the Town lynches them properly, so they have to try to get townies to lynch each other. In this game, Town lynches have got to be the last thing on a mafia family's mind. The real danger to them is in the other mafia family's KP, so it's really a no-brainer to try to get under the radar and have their counterparts waste as many hits on Town targets as possible. Mafia members get so little benefit from misdirecting the Town on that one lynch they have, and it's so much effort to even get the Town to follow your lead, that it's just not worth it. Let the Town play its own little game- maybe they'll lynch a Gambino, maybe they'll lynch a Sumiyoshi, maybe they'll lynch a Town member. Who cares? Participating actively won't particularly help mafia members unearth the identities of their real targets, and will definitely make themselves appear on the radar for the rival family. Best-case scenario, enemy family members are among the high-profile posters and you can take some out. Worst-case scenario, they're also lurking, in which case both mafia families will kill people randomly and a lot of Town members get killed. So yeah, this goes for the rest of the Town as well as for both mafia families lurking around: You want to find tasty mafia targets to kill? Take a good, long look at those who are inactive / making short, inane posts. Mystlord was godfather, not me ;o I agree. The mafia will be hiding in the drama giving forth weak opinions. By agreeing with active townies, saying things that have already been said, it's easy to seem active without actually contributing anything. I'm guilty of this but that's only because I was very busy yesterday. I have a big post coming up. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
Argument Compilation Anything listed in red is an objectively untrue statement or something I find completely ridiculous. I didn't list a lot of redundant arguments for the sake of time, but I got mostly everything. I've changed my mind a bit after going back and really scrutinizing every post. I suggest everyone do the same, you'd be surprised what bad conclusions you may have come to because you weren't really thinking. I blame my lack of focus yesterday due to packing up my room and playing video games while half-assedly browsing the mafia thread, but from now on I'm on full alert ;o I will post another update to this when I feel it's relevant. KEEP IN MIND THAT I DID NOT COMPILE ARGUMENTS FROM PAGE 24 OR BEYOND BloodyC0bbler + Show Spoiler + Argues that people should vote him for mayor because he is a strong player who can guide the town. I don't need to offer a strategy for the town to be mayor. l10f has done nothing to get people to vote for him, anyone who votes for him is suspicious. Don't use previous games to justify actions in this one. If L is mafia he wants Ace dead because Ace is another mafia or a strong townie. Ver + Show Spoiler + Discussing clues too much on the first day helps the mafia, Day 1 clues are very vague and shouldn't be taken seriously until later. Posting behavior isn't very easy to lynch people off of unless they make bad mistakes. We need to have a plan for the elected/blue roles and gather as much information as possible. Don't hide your thoughts. Post whatever, the more active people are the harder it is for mafia to hide. Instead of making immediate accusations based on clues, build clue profiles that grow stronger over time. Primary suspect is BloodyC0bbler due to a change in posting behavior. L + Show Spoiler + Looking at clues is very helpful, even on Day 1 because the clues are very good this time around. The clues very clearly point toward Ace as being mafia. Ace is discouraging clue analysis because he knows it will kill him. We can't afford to waste any lynches. Clues will help the mafia kill eachother for the benefit of the town. Ace needs to provide an alternative person to fit the day 1 clues. Ace is mafia because he refuses to analyze the clues and provide an alternative even though he is "innocent" The majority of anything people discuss lead to innocent deaths. Discussion still needs to happen and will tell us who is active and who isn't. Don't treat this game like a large 1 mafia game. Clues will be very important here. There isn't necessarily a clear clue division between the two families. The clues pointing to Ace are specific and very clear, not at all a stretch. It isn't likely that clues will grow stronger over time due to the sheer amount of mafia in this game. Don't make useless posts. People should listen to my clue analysis because I am very good at it. Town can't waste time due to KP disparity. Saying Ace is innocent because Incog wants him alive makes it too easy to twist clues. Mafia might have several good/veteran players. People look more innocent if herring clues apply to them. If Ace is red, Malongo probably is too. Don't be scared to kill a good player on day 1. I'm not trying to force Ace to die, I'm trying to analyze the clues. Offer an alternative fit if you want to turn away suspicion. I don't want Ace dead, I want the moonlight rider dead. Zato-1 + Show Spoiler + The Horsemen are on a different team from the torch thrower, the psychopath is on a different team from the angel. There may come a time when we may need to help one mafia family survive over another. The clue connection to Ace is strong, but perhaps not strong enough. Ace needs to argue against the clues, not the people analyzing them. Our job as town is to direct the mafia into killing eachother. It seems redtooth has an ulterior motive for defending Ace. laaan + Show Spoiler + Clues promote discussion which helps the town. There is a possibility that BloodyCobbler's profile fits the clues. Town should focus on keeping good players alive while the mafia kill eachother. Mafia will want the pardoner role. l10f + Show Spoiler + We shouldn't point fingers until later days. If I am elected, I will lynch someone who was previously mafia. Chezinu is mafia and I will lynch him if I'm mayor. DoctorHelvetica + Show Spoiler + Let's not make accusations based on clues until later. Worry about the mayor lynch. Agrees with Ver that clue profiling will be very helpful. Don't lynch Day 1 based on clues, they're useful later. BloodyCobbler should be lynched because the accusations on him are based on posting behavior and inconsistency. Use clues to help DT's and the town in the late-game. Malongo + Show Spoiler + We need a protected DT. Disagrees with Ver, even a wrong or fake analysis can help us. l10f should be mayor because he claimed blue l10f never roleclaimed a blue role Caller, L, and BC are mafia Caller. Half inactive up to now. Posted defending BC out of nowhere. L: Wanted to change his profile. Not really doing what he does in all games to benefit the town. BC: Already spotted by ver. meeple + Show Spoiler + Clues will be very important here. The accusation on BloodyCobbler is too weak to lynch him. Town should focus on surviving and hunting mafia Mystlord + Show Spoiler + We shouldn't lynch on clues before Day 3. Clues are mostly a vehicle for potentially incriminating discussion. Don't lynch Chezinu Day 1 arbitrarily. We need a mayor who is uninvolved in this drama. Using information from past games isn't helpful. Caller + Show Spoiler + BloodyCobbler will be such a helpful townie that he's a poor choice for a Day 1 lynch. Don't lynch strong players without good reason. d3_crescentia + Show Spoiler + Don't lynch strong players without good reason. Clues need to be strong in this game, we shouldn't ignore Day 1 clues because there are so many mafia. We need to keep in mind how the dynamic shifts due to there being 2 mafia. Abenson + Show Spoiler + Lynching someone based on posts hurts on the first day. Focus on the elections Ace + Show Spoiler + Talking about clues early is useless, they are useful later. I'm being targeted by L and Zato because I'm a good pro-town player. (Implies L and Zat are mafia) Be wary of light/ungrounded accusations. Don't lynch strong players unless it is obvious they are mafia. Blindly pointing fingers is bad no matter what. Clues are subjective, not objective. Never rely on clues. I refuse to provide an alternative because I don't want to point fingers at anyone. Clues are useful only when processed through DT's. I can't be mafia because if I acted differently than in previous games everyone would notice and lynch me instantly. I won't argue about clue analysis because it is subjective. I can debate whether they are valid because that is objective. Clue discussion leads to innocent death. Don't think of this as 1v1v1, this game is about temporary allegiances as the mafia try to kill eachother. L is trying to turn the town against me. Very few people actually doubt me as pro-town. L is trying to force my death and if I'm green/blue, he's definitely red. Redtooth + Show Spoiler + Day 1 clue analysis is useless. Don't post distracting things. Ace is right. Clue analysis is the last thing we need right now. The winning mayor should lynch a veteran mayor candidate. BloodyCobbler is suspicious. Mafia will have one person running for mayor at least. The clues pointing toward Ace are a stretch. We will never have a good Day 1 analysis. Incognito wouldn't make obvious clues point to Ace, even if Ace was mafia. Ace plays aggressive whether he is mafia or town, attacking his argument style is useless. An alliance between mafia will be terrible for the town. I agree that we will probably never see 2 sets of clues on 1 mafia. If Ace was mafia, incognito wants him alive. Ace is innocent because the clues point to him. There have been no mafia accusations between L and Ace up until now. -Untrue. L directly said "I think you're red" to Ace before this post, Ace also implied Zato/L were mafia in his first post although he didn't directly accuse them L is upset about the last game in which he was mafia which is why he wants Ace dead. Ace isn't necessarily innocent, the clues just don't point to him. Clue analysis on day 1 is trash. Dozko + Show Spoiler + Disagrees with Ace: Behavioral analysis is much more subjective than clues. All we have are Day 1 clues, we shouldn't ignore them. Chezinu + Show Spoiler + Day 1 clues are good to start discussion. Use clues to accuse people even if you don't really suspect them, then analyze their reaction. I should be mayor because I am untrustworthy. There is no such thing as a wasted post. Don't kill me. What people say in public isn't necessarily what they actually think. Hobbes + Show Spoiler + By lynching active posters with clues pointing toward them, we gain a lot of helpful information. It isn't a bad idea to lynch Ace. Just because a player is good doesn't mean they are sacrosanct. The bolded spoilers are very important as they will shine a lot of light on the argument between Ace/L/Redtooth. After reading through the thread more closely, I believe clue analysis is a lot more important than I first though. The clues are much stronger and L's point about clue profiling being mostly useless because of the large number of mafia is a very good one. L has been consistent and well-spoken in his arguments. Ace/Redtooth have been a bit inconsistent and too personal. Saying things like "L is obviously upset about this previous game" doesn't help anything and is just worthless speculation that distracts from the real argument. Ace's refusal to provide an alternative fit cannot be ignored. L did imply that Ace was butthurt about a previous game and I do hold that against him, unless he has some sort of strategical reason for doing so (such as trying to provoke a specific reaction) Read through this and make what you will of it! Keep in mind newer arguments (Page 24 onward) aren't posted here. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
l10f never said "I am blue" he said "I want to be blue" very different | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
and you pretty much said day 1 clue analysis was trash no matter what, you're toning it way down now. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
??? | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
sorry for not seeing the bigger picture you're expertly crafting here, lol | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
You're still dodging the fact that you have provided no basis for any of your accusations. I'm still most interested to hear your justification for your previous mafia accusations. I wasn't even arguing with you or attacking you about the mad hatter thing lol I do disagree that L is "too egocentric" for the town. Better a confident player who knows what they are doing than a sheep with no direction for mayor. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
i already said im not concerned about the mad hatter issue, stop dodging the real issue | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
A VERY IMPORTANT POINT THAT HAS BEEN IGNORED or, why I now agree with L Initially I made the mistake of strategizing as I would in a game with 1 mafia family against 1 town and a relatively small number of mafia (say 8 or less) I agreed with Ver thinking "clue analysis will become stronger as clue profiles build on mafia." I know that in Incognitos last game, he used a set order of clues. The first day was myself and keit, then derfboy, phrujbaz, etc. etc. Eventually it repeated and went back to keit, this made the clues on him much stronger. By about the 3rd or 4th day, the town now had a much stronger clue profile on a single mafia and the town could have lynched him a bit more securely. In this game, there are 20 mafia. I assume kills will overlap (meaning Mafia and Yakuza both hit the same target) and medics will eventually do their thing, meaning we might not even get 6 clues a day. If there were exactly 6 kills a night, by the 4th day we would have a "clue profile" with multiple clue sets on a single mafia member. Either we ignore clues completely because of this, or we start analyzing them from Day 1 onward. Unless of course, Incognito decides not to go in a specific order, meaning that we might get multiple clues on a single mafia very early and much more often. But I think that is unlikely. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On February 15 2010 08:51 Bill Murray wrote: i was just making a funny reference to family guy i guess you all don't watch that show  DH, you want me to list why i posted the people i posted? yes. you should have done that in the first place making statements without justifying them is useless | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On February 15 2010 08:58 Bill Murray wrote: Chezinu - voting history, erratic behavior, seems to know more than a normal townie should redtooth - blindly supports L, take it back, supports him again, backlashes for my lynching laaan - voting for L, being too lazy to do anything to help the town, zato-1 - wanting to get rid of ace for no apparent reason bloodycobbler - as per previous analysis regarding posting behavior ver - was probably a mistake, but because he ROLECLAIMEDto me in PM L - wanting to get rid of ace for no apparent reason Mystlord - seems to be acting the same way from last game i'd like to eliminate fulgrim from this list. also, what's citi.zen been doing? he's been a lot less inactive than last game. i wouldn't be too worried about this if he didn't have so many votes. laaan, after looking through everyones arguments had a bit more to say than other semi-active players. If people thought if you flip red that ace is mafia were lacking any confidence, this post should end that. BM accuses Zato and L for accusing Ace of being mafia for "no apparent reason." Go back and read my argument compilation and you will see there are multiple and good reasons for them pointing at Ace as a potential mafia. I also think the wording "wanting to get rid of ace" is very interesting. It is the exact same wording that Ace and redtooth have used in defense. It isn't much but it might suggest some synergy between the players. If Bill Murray flips green, then that just means he isn't really reading the arguments. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On February 15 2010 09:02 BloodyC0bbler wrote: It is an important point. However, as someone who likes clue analyzing. Let me give you an example of day 1 clues should be done. Discussed (yay) but don't actively lynch someone based off of it, its not reliable. You need time to build your profiles of people. Day 1 clues start the process of building mafia profiles. You can usually easy pin in family games, which family is responsible for which killings. You then label them mafia family A, and mafia family B. As clues are given, you put themes under each mafia heading. The more time that goes by, the more you have, the better your chances of linking to someone. Using day 1 clues, you have things that are red herrings, as well as some things that are clues. I enjoy seeing L looking at them, but he looks more like hes pushing to get ace lynched than actually look at the clues. The whole theme of horsemen (at the moment to me) is moot. Things like darkness, or moonlight/blinding, could indeed be clues. However, without more days worth of clues, its harder to know if it is or not. Its why Camlito and MTF post very little analysis until they have solid leads. Until then its wild speculation. Chances are that incog will just link more than 3 members of a family per night, or hell, we are getting 6 mafia per night in clues anyway, we could get really lucky on one of them later, or he could reuse one from day 1 in day 2, etc... Day 1 clues are deff important, but moreso down the line than now. My argument is that it will take so long to build clue profiles that it will become useless. Doing things like seperating killers into families is all well and good though. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On February 15 2010 09:04 meeple wrote: Chez - erratic behavior doesn't always lead to red, and can give an example of when he seems to know more than he should? laaan - being too lazy to help the town doesn't mean he's red... since that would mean there are like 25 red inactives sitting in the bleachers. Zato-1 - has stated that he thinks the clues point to Ace... so there is an apparent reason BC - Not sure why people keep coming to this... he very well might be red, but I don't think there's a correlation between his candidacy posts and him being red, for me it seems like a forced connection. Ver - Roleclaiming is really odd, but he might be messing with you, unless he explains why he trusts you. L - same with the other guy... its clear they're both basing their accusations on clues Mystlord - Not really enough to say for sure, but in addition to his profile pic that could be linked to the arsonist and moon references it might be slightly more suspicious than your average joe. People fall back on BC because he is acting differently than he usually does when he is a pro-town role in mafia games, a strong indicator that he may be mafia. I'd like to see what an experienced player like Ace/L/Ver has to say about his posting behavior now, he seems to be taking it a bit more seriously. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
----------------------------------------- Original Message: dude, im fucking green, you're really making me mad seriously, if you want me to be friendly with you ever again on these message boards, you will leave me alone. i am green unless i'm the miller. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On February 15 2010 09:09 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Thing is, in a game with this many killers, for all we know, incog could be going 4-5 members a family in clue sets, or he could be doing one per kill, etc... As people die off you also get a good indicator of whos red so on and so forth. Its not a fast process in clues, it never is. Over analyzing things like L is, can pay off for sure, but it can also create bandwagons that off us faster. The greatest thing it has done so far this game is get alot of people talking, and which has given us alot of insight into peoples behaviour If it follows the format of the day 1 post, it's going to be 1 person per kill. We can't just assume that "oh maybe he will repeat the same person in a short amount of time." either we bullshit around clue analysis because maybe clue profiling will work out, or we find out the hard way that there is no "clue profile" until day 4 or 5, maybe even 6 if there are a lot of overlapping hits/useful medics | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
Also, L asserted that the connection to Empyrean was very strong. He hasn't had to push that because everyone pretty much accepted it right off the bat. It seems like this "vendetta" if very much a constructed falsehood that is really just distracting people from the issue of why L is accusing Ace in the first place. | ||
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