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TL Mafia XVIII - Page 28

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Chezinu
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
United States7448 Posts
February 14 2010 11:31 GMT
#541
/faceplam
lol, clueless in The Prism!
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 14 2010 11:32 GMT
#542
secondly, as for my "bad word choice" i was listing a few people i thought were mafia, with L as who i think to be their godfather.......

i said BC was the other godfather imo, but i have no clues as to who is in that group, which is also why i said that im not sure if those 10 are all together, just that they seem to be rather sketchy to me. if you all want to lynch me that's fine, but i'll flip town.
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Shikyo
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Finland33997 Posts
February 14 2010 11:35 GMT
#543
On February 14 2010 09:36 Incognito wrote:
The game has started. Please DO NOT change your profiles.

Oh missed this >_> Changed every missing part to how they should have been and didn't remove anything, only added, so maybe it's fine!


Anyway I'm now here and reading -.-
League of Legends EU West, Platinum III | Yousei Teikoku is the best thing that has ever happened to music.
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 14 2010 11:36 GMT
#544
furthermore, if i WAS mafia (which i am most certainly not and if you believe i am you are dumber than the average romanian) would they elect me the godfather? i think they vote on that, but as i have never been mafia, i'm not even sure they do that. is the godfather appointed?
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 14 2010 11:37 GMT
#545
im not even worried about the mafias. they know i'm a moron who wouldn't flip red. i am only worried about an ill-advised town lynch for trying to actually determine who is being buddy-buddy.
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Chezinu
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
United States7448 Posts
February 14 2010 11:38 GMT
#546
On February 14 2010 20:36 Bill Murray wrote:
furthermore, if i WAS mafia (which i am most certainly not and if you believe i am you are dumber than the average romanian) would they elect me the godfather? i think they vote on that, but as i have never been mafia, i'm not even sure they do that. is the godfather appointed?

This game the godfather will be a no name because the other mafia won't care about dt checks. The big names will die this game.. its sad...
lol, clueless in The Prism!
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 14 2010 11:43 GMT
#547
yes, but i'm not a normal no-name. if you followed the last game you'll realize i am infamous for being a moron, and many people would want to kill me. thus i would make a terrible choice for a godfather....



i really just hope im not the miller, tbh.
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Ver
Profile Joined October 2008
United States2186 Posts
February 14 2010 12:13 GMT
#548
I was going to do real analysis but frankly I'm too exhausted/tired. I'm looking through and stuff just doesn't make sense. That will have to wait for tomorrow. So I'll just leave some general observations and thoughts. I do think that as L said earlier, we need to tone down the amount of fluff posts so everyone can read what is being said and not miss important parts.

So far this seems like a typical game. Normally mafia are either very active or take to the shadows and lurk. This game seems to be the latter, with a lot of town infighting and the mafia staying quiet and scheming. There's not much bandwagoning going on, just lots of confusion and various discussion of approaches etc. This isn't the kind of scenario where mafia need to post much. They just want to sit back and avoid getting noticed. Yes this game is different than others because of the mafia's goals, but they still do not want to get killed by the town. That psychological impediment remains and affects their behavior as normal.

It seems pretty apparent that the mafia are lazy and just waiting on us to waste lynches on innocents. They don't really have any reason to contribute and it's pretty clear that the people posting real contributions are innocent (I'm too tired to make a list atm sorry) while the mafia just post a bit of garbage and/or sit around.

Lastly, I want to make it clear that the people who were questioning the statements about clue analysis being useful are very probably innocent (again too tired to make a list). In such a situation the mafia is not going to want to disagree with someone like me and attract attention to themselves, while an innocent is much more likely to not care and just argue what they feel is right.
Liquipedia
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 14 2010 12:44 GMT
#549
i'm going to bed,
if anyone has any questions for me feel free to PM me.
i'm not going to PM this game, but i'll make an exception for that for any PM i get in between when i go to bed and when i wake up.
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Nikon
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
Bulgaria5710 Posts
February 14 2010 12:44 GMT
#550
Whoa, 28 pages o.O

If there's anything I've learned from the previous mafia game I was in, it's that clues are always right. Even if you interpret them incorrectly, they still are pointing to someone, and it's likely that your wrong interpretation is right. That's why this whole Ace vs L thing seems so bogus. I have to admit that I agree with L's argument towards using clues from the get-go, since with 20 mafia in the game, clues aren't likely to reappear in the foreseeable future and they won't be any stronger on Day 3 than they are on Day 1, there would just be more of them to talk about, and if we've skipped any analysis, it would be way easier for clues to get bogged down by a third party. This would be disastrous as it would allow a mafia family to avoid being linked to clues, essentially giving them the victory nearly for free.

You have to understand that the dynamics brought in by having two opposed mafia families make analysing clues so much more important, as those families will be looking to kill eachother, hence becoming unwilling accomplices in the town's plight. Moreover, the activity it would presumably spur would be invaluable, if not today, then tomorrow. It's also worthy to note that lynching anyone in the first couple of days is not in the town's best interest, we need to be able to discern between the different mafia camps, lest we tip the scale too far in one direction. Remeber - mafia families have 3 KP right now, but their KP will only go down if they lose 4 people. Hence, lynching a mafia hastily could potentially have a disastrous effect on the game. It's probably best to let them kill off each other for now, while gently making suggestions based on logic and science as to who they should... dispose of. Even if we do not lynch a mafia, it still works heavily against the town's favour, since it diminishes our strength as a whole.

Another thing to note is that there will be mafia running for office. A more intricate result from that is that they're unlikely to substitute bodyguards with their members if their candidate wins. Regardless of the outcome of the vote, I'd expect attempts on elected positions as soon as night one, since no one really has any substantial information this far.
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
February 14 2010 13:55 GMT
#551
"let them kill each other off now" - and how do we do that? It's not like we KNOW who they are.

I disagree with so much of you're post. You're first paragraph is blatantly wrong because clues aren't always right. The very fact that you don't even know what automatically constitutes a clue makes you wrong on that too.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
~OpZ~
Profile Blog Joined May 2005
United States3652 Posts
February 14 2010 15:13 GMT
#552
On February 14 2010 13:44 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Ver has been the most sensible so far imo

His accusation of bloodycobbler is based on a change in bc's posting strategy and not the loose and broad clues from Day 1. He's advocating keeping the clues in mind until they become effective later in the game: a reasonable assertion.

I also think we should be using these clues to profile the mafia, rather than starting analytical arguments/trying to accuse anyone already. It seems a bit suspicious that L is already trying to paint Ace red based on the clues when all of the experienced players are saying that using day 1 clues to lynch/accuse is just stupid.


Well, L did have a point
On February 14 2010 13:46 L wrote:

Which brings me to another point; With 20 mafia, how often do you think we'll be revisiting the same characters?

Incog can't exactly include every mafia member in each day post if it's three spread to each family, then it would take 4 day posts just to show each member with 1 kill...



Ace's posting style is a bit arrogant and aggressive for my tastes and I disagree that clues are essentially useless, but his point is fair. Clues, if anything, should be a helping point for our DT's and something used in the late-game

The Red army game I voted like every lynch I could to lynch Ace....Then when I got tired and blew myself up. Ace just has a very abrasive posting style...

In that earlier L vs Ace argument, it's easy to put both their sides in perspective. L supports clue analysis, Ace supports behavioral analysis. Goes very good with his piss-you-off personality. Personally, I feel it may be weak to lynch Ace off the bat.

Dr. H is who I'm looking at...Him and Chezinu flooding the thread.
Maybe I could teach Osama that using a plane as a wraith or dropship would be 10x better than using it as a scourge..... ^^; -Flex
sidesprang
Profile Joined January 2009
Norway1033 Posts
February 14 2010 15:30 GMT
#553
L's point about beeing 20 mafia and that it will take a long time before we get two different clues on a single mafia i dont really think is true.

Last game i was in there was 8 mafia and they had 3kp. meaning at day 3 we in the worst case scenario had 1 mafia with double clues.

In this game there is 20 mafia and 6 KP, meaning in the worst case we would have 4 double clues at day 4. But you with there beeing possible 12 mafia kills and 2 lynces one should think/hope that some mafia would die, and we get double clues at day 3 again.

Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee.
d3_crescentia
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States4054 Posts
February 14 2010 15:36 GMT
#554
On February 14 2010 22:55 Ace wrote:
"let them kill each other off now" - and how do we do that? It's not like we KNOW who they are.

I disagree with so much of you're post. You're first paragraph is blatantly wrong because clues aren't always right. The very fact that you don't even know what automatically constitutes a clue makes you wrong on that too.

We do clue analysis regardless of whether or not it's right, and people step up to defend/criticize... then we analyze their posts in response. The fact that there's such a huge argument between you and L is already very telling.

I suppose it would derail the thread if we picked someone wrong, so my suggestion is thus: can we find any further clues that relate to the electoral candidates?
once, not long ago, there was a moon here
BloodyC0bbler
Profile Blog Joined September 2004
Canada7876 Posts
February 14 2010 15:47 GMT
#555
On February 14 2010 17:28 Bill Murray wrote:
after reading your alls posts, it is actually sort of easy to put people into groups of "blind faith and teamwork" which would be associated with mafia.

the only problem here is there seem to be multiple groups
L
Chezinu
redtooth
laaan
zato-1
bloodycobbler
ver
L
Mystlord
fulgrim


in my opinion are mafia, possibly not all in the same mafia, but that's my guess

i also think that bloodycobbler is the other mafia godfather



As much as you've backpeddled as you have already, this post is still damning. You blindly list people as mafia, list off groups of people who support eachother (without actually lumping them in said groups), and claim I'm the other mafia gf. Yes youve backpeddled and said you believe L is the other one, however, that post indicates you know the identity of one GF already.

It also speaks to your lack of knowledge of my playstyle. If I was the gf, the mayoral role would never be something I would personally want, as getting a blue role that is uncheckable is moot when I can already do that.

That post either indicates you giving yourself as a mafia away, or that you really need to learn on how to structure your mafia game posts to now get yourself firmly on radars.
#3 Member of the Chill Fanclub / Rhaegar fought nobly. Rhaegar fought valiantly. Rhaegar fought honorably. And Rhaeger died. --Ser Jorah Mormont TL MAFIA FORUM http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31 go go !
BloodyC0bbler
Profile Blog Joined September 2004
Canada7876 Posts
February 14 2010 15:49 GMT
#556
I should also add, if you believe that the mafia would elect me godfather, when i'm trying to get an elected position + a vet player who would most likely be killed if I didnt get the mayoral or pardoner position quickly, your not thinking. Let alone that the mafia team would elect me less than 24 hours into the game.
#3 Member of the Chill Fanclub / Rhaegar fought nobly. Rhaegar fought valiantly. Rhaegar fought honorably. And Rhaeger died. --Ser Jorah Mormont TL MAFIA FORUM http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31 go go !
d3_crescentia
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States4054 Posts
February 14 2010 16:06 GMT
#557
I'm starting to agree with BC here... Bill is either bad at posting, or mafia. Or both, because the situation we have right now would happen anyway if he was the latter and did the former. It's simply DUMB for the mafia to put GF as mayor, because it wastes the GF's inherent power.
once, not long ago, there was a moon here
d3_crescentia
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States4054 Posts
February 14 2010 16:12 GMT
#558
Also, why is BM pointing out who could/couldn't be GF right now, when it's a fact that GF is decided before the END of Day 1?
once, not long ago, there was a moon here
BloodyC0bbler
Profile Blog Joined September 2004
Canada7876 Posts
February 14 2010 16:13 GMT
#559
On February 15 2010 01:12 d3_crescentia wrote:
Also, why is BM pointing out who could/couldn't be GF right now, when it's a fact that GF is decided before the END of Day 1?


Someone has seen the light
#3 Member of the Chill Fanclub / Rhaegar fought nobly. Rhaegar fought valiantly. Rhaegar fought honorably. And Rhaeger died. --Ser Jorah Mormont TL MAFIA FORUM http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31 go go !
BloodyC0bbler
Profile Blog Joined September 2004
Canada7876 Posts
February 14 2010 16:14 GMT
#560
annd just realized its time for work, be back in like 6ish hours, possibly 7
#3 Member of the Chill Fanclub / Rhaegar fought nobly. Rhaegar fought valiantly. Rhaegar fought honorably. And Rhaeger died. --Ser Jorah Mormont TL MAFIA FORUM http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31 go go !
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