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On February 15 2010 23:35 Abenson wrote:
It's time i posted something useful :D
As of now, if I were the mafia I would just sit back and relax while the town kills each other (like ver said), so therefore the correct actions for town would be to use the power of pm's (?) and also check up on the extremely inactive people.
I also believe that analyzing player's behavior from past games will benefit us greatly, since it's easy to compare the posts, especially if the player is veteran (Ace, Bloodycobbler, Caller... etc.) According to the Mini Mafia games, Ace tends to be a dick and flame whenever he is a townie... but then again veterans have tons of experience so they can act like whatever role they want.
Another notable thing is Chezinu, who, in mini mafia III was actually somewhat calm when compared to the way he is behaving right now.
I believe that ridding the mafia of a veteran player will benefit us greatly, so I think we should all go to the past games and start analyzing the vets :D
This doesn't make much sense, because the mafia are trying to kill the other mafia, not the other townies.
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On February 15 2010 15:23 DoctorHelvetica wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 15:16 Ace wrote:On February 15 2010 15:04 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Information:
If flip red we can analyze:
Vocal Supporters
Who voted for you for mayor, particularly while giving little reason
Vocal accusers (L, Myself, laaan) are very likely not in the same mafia family as you
People trying to distract attention from accusations toward you without offering a real argument
A relatively large amount of posts to analyze from the perspective of a mafia from a specific family
If you flip green, it's fair to analyze:
Vocal accusers seem more suspicious
Voters for the most vocal accusers
People who suddenly bandwagon against you late in the thread/without reason If I flip red you can't analyze my vocal supporters. There aren't any. No one has supported me so far, only people who have said you guys may be wrong. That isn't support. It doesn't matter if you're not in the same family - you'd still be suspect. Who has tried to distract attention from this argument? List them please. For the very last time, you can't analyze my posts. In fact before you even try and get me killed it might be a wise idea and analyze them now to see what you can find. And by analyze I don't mean "hey guys, look what Ace said" but more akin to what links if any you can see to other people. I ask this sincerely because before you try and kill me on the basis I'm Mafia you should do this BEFORE offing me to make sure you have some clue of what you are doing. Needless to say I think you're so off tangent so this will hopefully show you why you're wrong. Now if you lynch me when I'm innocent you don't even get any more information based on my last paragraph. You have nothing to link me on. Nothing. you'd start the next day with the SAME information as the last. If you can prove me wrong, do it now by examining my posts and see what you can find that is going to be so mind blowing to the town it gets us a path to the Mafia. You said yourself if you flip green, that myself/L/laaan are likely mafia. Saying there is no information to be gleaned from your death either way is silly. I wouldn't call ver a vocal supporter of you, but like redtooth said. If you are mafia, your allies will likely not vehemently defend you but perhaps try to discourage the use of clue analysis. Ver made a post a while back saying that "anyone discouraging clue usage is probably innocent" and it seems to me (please correct me if I'm wrong) that you tried to discourage redtooth from making anti-ver posts with your PM to him. redtooth just now has added a fair amount to the case for you being scum. You're saying my suspicion isn't based on any analysis, but I've stated many times it has to do with your dodging L's questions, being unwilling to provide alternative solutions, and the biggest basis of your argument being "fuck you I'm ace i dont need to defend myself cuz im ace"
Did you guys read my last post about this? If Ace flips red or green you have an equal chance of being town or mafia. This game is different from the last games because the mafia families:
a) aren't trying to kill townies, but each other
b) don't know who the other family is
So if a person is really pushing for someone's death, and that someone flips red, that wouldn't clear the accuser in my mind. They could be from the other mafia family and got a lucky hit, OR just a townie who got a lucky hit.
Scenario 2: The someone flips green, their accuser could be a mafia who got a lynch wrong, OR a townie who got a lynch wrong.
I'm having a real hard time seeing how we would analyze deaths of lynch candidates.
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On February 15 2010 23:44 Abenson wrote:
I think it makes perfect sense...
It if because of precisely that the mafia has to kill each other that they don't have to do much.
There is no need to really participate in the town discussion, since the logical way for mafia to win is to look and analyze clues, decide which one of the clues point to the other mafia, and kill them all.
I'm just trying to think like a mafia... I apologize if I'm thinking illogically or like a noob.
Its ok, but I think the mafia would be very involved in the discussion, so they can influence the lynch votes to avoid hitting their members, and to hit the other mafia's members. If they have enough influence they could effectively have an extra KP. That's just my opinion of it.
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On February 16 2010 06:26 Caller wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 06:24 Nikoner wrote:
How do you expect DTs to come forward, they haven't even had the chance to do anything during the night yet. Only reason to come forward as a DT today would be if you're the godfather of a mafia so you could potentially infiltrate townie circles, and even then, it's way risky. Did you even read my post? I already stated very clearly that there is absolutely no incentive for mafia to kill DTs right now, or as long as the balance of power between the two mafias is maintained. None at all. Mafia have no method of identifying other mafia at this stage this early in the game. They want DTs to clear up suspects on their lists. Mafia don't have to kill a single townie this game in order to win, either. And I doubt a godfather would expose themselves this early. Why would they care about townie circles? Again, I stated multiple times that all mafia has to do is kill the other mafia. Infiltrating townie circles is a lot less useful than it is in games with just one mafia.
Got to agree with caller here. The mafia wouldn't have any incentive to kill the DT, they have limited kp, and wasting one on a DT who is probably medic protected wouldn't look like a good plan to the mafia. If we have one or two confirmed DT's around, it would make the game alot easier for the town, because by clearing townies as green, the mafia won't bother hitting them, which in turn could help create a central group of townies. The DT's wouldn't do anything but help the mafia kill each other faster and avoid hitting greens. The only difficulty would be identifying the true DT's from the mafia, which could probably be resolved in a day/night cycle or two.
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W.T.F. Seriously redtooth??? Why would you roleclaim right before the election was over. Definitely the stupidest thing I've seen all game. Now we have to wonder whether he actually is the medic or whether it was a mafia ploy to get more votes. Also did you stop to think that the mafia gets to decide how many bodyguards they want to put in on day 1???? Medic is the one blue role we DONT want revealed, because unlike the DT's medics will probably hurt the mafia's chances of winning more then a DT would.
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And Empyrean was green, good job 1st day clues. We now need a list of people that should be Role checked, for future lynches/hits, or to have some confirmed greens in the town.
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These are all of the people who voted for redtooth:
Ver
Chezinu
Caller
citi.zen
decafchicken
meeple
d3_crescentia
Ace
Empyrean
Bill Murray
All the people who voted for redtooth. The bolded ones changed their vote with less then 1 hour left in the election
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On February 16 2010 09:38 Ace wrote:
So he convinced you he was innocent because he forgot to vote?
lol. Really you expect me to believe that? You're full of it. Give up L. You're clearly Mafia. Wrong on clue analysis, and "convinced" he's innocent because he said he forgot to vote if you didn't PM him. Right.
Ace sometimes you open your mouth the heavens sing out as infinite wisdom flows from your mouth, other times you just cough up a ball of shit. This is the latter, if you bothered to read posts in this game, you would've remembered my post about how just because someone flips green doesn't mean the accusers are mafia, mafia is trying just as hard as the town to kill mafia. There is an equal chance of L being green as red. My suspicion is on you however, for you switching your vote to redtooth at the end of the election. Why? enlighten us oh veteran of mafia Ace
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On February 16 2010 09:50 Ace wrote:
My vote was on redtooth. He claimed Medic. Thats why I took it away. Then I thought about his motive for lying at that point in time and it really didn't matter because Ver wasn't here anyway. So me switching my vote back within a few minutes changed nothing. There's no suspicion there.
Maybe you should bother questioning the people that pushed him from Pardoner -> Mayor. Pardoner is more powerful than Mayor anyway.
So you took it away from him because you realized that having an elected official that careless would be horrible for the town? Or because you wanted him to be rolechecked?
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On February 16 2010 10:01 Mystlord wrote:What the hell? The most retarded stuff happened while I stepped out. First redtooth roleclaims medic before the elections are over (WTF?!), then people vote him into office because you're afraid of losing a medic? And now we can't confirm if he's a medic. Great. Obviously either common sense has been completely destroyed, or scum is at work here. Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 09:43 d3_crescentia wrote:On February 16 2010 09:33 Bill Murray wrote:
I honestly have been suspicious of d3_crescentia, regardless of people telling me that my analysis of the moon in his signature is a red herring... 5 mentions of the moon or moonlight are too many for me to ignore...
I say this for 2 reasons:
First, assume he is mafia. He would then defend ace/redtooth who are obviously already mutually defending each other until it was pointed out when redtooth decided that his best course of action would be to roleclaim as opposed to defending ace.
second, assume he is an idiot townie: he would be mad at me for my spamming the thread, and for lumping him in with bloodycobbler, ace, mystlord, etc. with my analysis
final analysis: I do not think redtooth is mafia, but I DEFINITELY HAVE BEEN WRONG IN THE PAST LOL U KNOW FROM EXPERIENCE. I feel that d3_crescentia fell into a trap by this, and I'm pretty sure someone else agrees with me too. I feel like d3_crescentia is trying to defend ace, and they they are both mafia from the same family.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA no. Oh dear God BM. Your logic fails on so many levels... Why would mafia 100% defend ace/redtooth? And I can't even pretend to understand the rest of your post. By the way, DrH, you asked before the elections were over who'd I lynch, and I'd lean towards Ace. He's just involved with too many people and has made too many posts. However, I'm not confident in that enough to push for an Ace lynch, although the vote switching has made me a bit more suspicious again... Oh yeah, and it appears that we have gotten nothing off of the Empyrean lynch. Huzzah! Time to wait for Night 2...
Technically we don't have to wait, hopefully the mafia families will do some of the work for us. We should continue trying to identify mafia within the town.
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Ok guys, looking back at day 1, I have to say that I'm most suspicious of redtooth and Ace. Originally there was alot of evidence to me that redtooth is town. He had a late campaign start (mafia could have been more organized then this, but not necessarily), and more importantly was receiving 0 votes. If he was mafia, he probably would have at least received some votes, and maybe even some swing votes in the last 60 minutes of the election to make him mayor??? Also I don't know what his normal posting behavior is like, but he was EXTREMELY defensive, and had this whole affair with his bff ace.
Ace I'm a bit more sure about. There are some clues that point to him (although as we saw with Emp, this isn't the most reliable method.) Also I've just found Ace to be very unhelpful to the town for the most part this game. His campaign was basically "lol nubs you guys vote for me kk?", and he spent alot of time defending himself from L and others. Finally the election, Ace switched his vote from redtooth and then back again in the last minutes of the election. (he did give an explanation, but i'm not completely satisfied)
I think that redtooth and Ace are part of the same mafia family, and that redtooth defended ace by mistake, and then started accusing him so he wouldn't look suspicious.
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On February 16 2010 10:18 Ace wrote:
Listen, for the last time my vote isn't suspicious.
I went from Redtooth -> L - > Redtooth in the span of a few minutes and anyone reading this thread knows I wasn't going to vote for L seriously.
How can you continue to question me but NOT look at the people that tipped over Redtooth in becoming Mayor? Come on, you can't say with a straight face I'm more suspect than yourself in that regard.
I voted for Dr.h, thinking that redtooth would be a bad candidate.... I'll admit that there are others that voted for redtooth that look suspicious, but I hadn't suspected them previously. (meeple comes to mind)
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Fulgrim's user's guide to night 1:
FOR MAFIA:
Town (mafia do not hit):
Caller (good albeit rare contributions, doubt there is red here)
Dr.H (he has been posting alot, but in my opinion they've been good quality, I don't see why everyone is attacking him all the time)
Chezinu (call me stupid, but I actually think he's the DT, he only roleclaimed in the thread until after I talked to him via pm)
Mafia (HIT THEM HARD)-
Redtooth (see my post above, although you can't hit him because he got elected....)
Ace (see my post above)
decafchicken- (he's lurking just like he did last game when he was godfather, also voted for redtooth with little reason)
Suspicious people (possible hit):
Meeple (election switching votes)
d3_cresentia (I felt her posts were much higher quality last game when town, also ninja voted for redtooth)
BC (points brought up previously about posting behavior)
retards-
BM (if he isn't mafia, I don't know what to say)
redtooth (even if you are medic, roleclaiming right before the election was over was a horrible move)
????????????-
L (i have no clue about you)
Ver
DT guide to checking people-
Avoid role checking the vets with the most posts (Ace, Ver) because these guys have high chances of being godfathers, instead try to check the more active but less Vet players. I also reccomend checking Chezinu so we can know whether he is actually a DT or not, or checking other people on the town list.
Medics guide to protecting people-
I would recommend protecting someone on the green list, and avoid people who might be mafia, use that thing in between your ears, and DONT roleclaim. Keep your role to yourself, you are in danger of being hit by mafia, and we will need you later in the game for sure, so don't screw up.
Vigi's save your kills for later nights
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On February 16 2010 11:06 Ace wrote:
Interesting Fulgrim, I didn't know we had vigilantes in this game.
Haha, no we don't, just went back and checked. Thanks =)
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On February 16 2010 12:27 redtooth wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 09:27 L wrote:
And that's why I wanted to kill Ace instead. THIS IS BULLSHIT. I HAD A PM FROM INCOGNITO ASKING IF I WAS PARDONER WOULD I WANT O PARDON EMP. LOL INCONSISTENCIES L. WOULD YOU LIKE TO EXPLAIN? and i went to sleep thinking i wouldn't be elected at all. instead i got a PM titled "Mr Mayor" from incognito. what. the. fuck.
L any comments?
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I posted a poll in the voting thread regarding malongo's plan, I think we should have an informal poll, and since its anonymous maybe we can get some honest opinions
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On February 16 2010 13:32 Chezinu wrote:
Okay, here is the plan.
1. medics on me of course, because I'm special
2. godfathers disguised as medic should protect me as well.
3. Mafia hit the other mafia so that if they go for me, you will be in the lead.
4. Why would you waste any hits on me?
5. Mad hatters, you guys shouldn't put bombs on me - It would kill our medics.
6. To the mafia team I sided with, please send me your hit list.
7. redtooth please give me the bodyguard information, because I'm special.
8. L please pardon my annoying behavior.
9, That is all.
lol @ 6
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Everyone make sure you vote in the voting thread about malongo's plan, maybe we will get some honest responses. Although I wish I hadn't put the Ace response, I meant it as a joke I didn't know people would actually vote for it lol
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So I was compiling a list of times and votes, (including vote changes), but I have to go now and probably won't have time to finish for a while.... So I thought I would post what I had so far, which is about halfway through page 4 if someone else wants to finish. Some patterns I noticed at the beginning was a massive vote for Citi.zen, and then everyone took there vote away, then alot of votes for ver, but then some of those got changed.
Enjoy:
+ Show Spoiler +07:30. Voting begins
7:56 Chezinu - BC
08:14 Chezinu - Citi.zen
9:18 Iaaan - abstain
10:00 Malongo - l10f
10:17 sidesprang - abstain
10:33 Bill Murray - Meeple
10:53 DoctorHelvetica - l10f
11:16 BloodyC0bbler - Ver
11:48 Caller - Ace
12:19 Abenson - abstain
12:16 Iaaan - abstain to L
12:44 Fulgrim - Ver
13:05 Abenson - abstain to Ace
13:19 Chezinu - Citi.zen to redtooth
13:41 Fishball - Citi.zen
13:55 l10f - abstain
14:26 Faronel - Citi.zen
15:01 redtooth - abstain
15:10 Ace - abstain
15:12 Mystlord - abstain
15:22 DoctorHelvetica - l10f to Citi.zen
18:00 MasterDana - Citi.zen
18:03 Chezinu - redtooth to Citi.zen
20:15 Ver - abstain
20:41 Bill Murray - meeple to Ver
21:36 Nikoner - abstain
22:19 ~OpZ~ - L
23:48 Amber[LighT] - Ver
2:59 madnessman - L
4:09 dozko - Citi.zen
5:43 Vivi57- Ver
5:47 ShoCkeyy - abstain
5:48 QuickStriker - abstain
6:24 johnnyspazz - abstain
6:49 Zato-1 - L
7:24 Chezinu - Citi.zen to redtooth
8:20 citi.zen - doctorhelvetica
8:36 [NyC]HoBbes - Citi.zen
8:43 Phrujbaz - abstain
8:58 789 - Citi.zen
9:09 Scamp - L
9:19 Fulgrim - Ver to DrH
9:53 Foolishness - abstain
10:01 LucasWoJ - abstain
10:23 SugiuraMidori - abstain
10:37 XeliN - Ver
11:13 Shikyo - abstain
11:18 DoctorHelvetica - Citi.zen to L
11:27 789 - Citi.zen to abstain
11:43 decafchicken - Ace
11:53 Bill Murray - Ver to Ace
12:04 tree.hugger - Ver
12:38 Bill Murray - Ace to tree.hugger
13:04 tree.hugger - Ver to DrH
13:37 [NyC]HoBbes - Citi.zen to abstain
13:40 d3_crescentia - abstain
13:40 CynanMachae - abstain
14:35 Bill Murray - tree.hugger to abstain
14:38 L - abstain
14:45 Chezinu -redtooth to BM
14:49 redtooth - abstain to L
15:12 Foolishness - abstain to BM
15:46 BloodyC0bbler - Ver to abstain
16:19 Ver - abstain to redtooth
17:35 Ace - abstain to redtooth
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On February 17 2010 08:29 Ace wrote:
Don't have much time, but Townies listen to Scamp and LucaWoj. Under NO circumstances should anyone reveal they are a medic. Those are our trump cards because whichever side is "winning" the shooutout can't be allowed to run wild.
Bill Murray you're actually one of my top 3 suspects now. No purely because of the spam, but because you've been wrong multiple times. Not even Amber[light] or Vivi57 have missed this many times in a single game. Feels as though you're trying to pull off the clueless role.
Redtooth Chezinu isn't a confirmed DT. Don't get why you are protecting him unless you feel he's the only credible pro-town player at the moment?
Also I forgot if it was you that made the "DTs can safely claim" post, and since I'm about to leave I can't check. But if anyone checks this information out and see that you made the argument, or supported it you're getting lynched tomorrow. That would show a huge contradiction in what you said and then your decision to protect Chezinu. Of course I hope that's not the case ^_^
I'll be playing for real from now on. Let's hope I don't die tonight ^_^
I was one of the ones who thinks that DT's should roleclaim. Medics are a different story.
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EPT
