Sorry, I'll need to clarify. Almost best quarters in terms of matchup variety. To have 4 LCK and 3 chinese, there's only 1 region mirror. I think that's great (and possibly even rigged, but who cares).
RGE might be able to pull it off, but they'll need to become battlegods once more. Trymbi/Malrang have to step it again in order to do it.

JDG is flimsy, but they can also fight back from literally any gold deficit, which makes them, imo, the scariest team as you can never seem to close out cleanly against them. They'll always surprise you one way or another. RGE will have to play inhumanly clean.
RNG is rock solid. Hoping for a T1 win, but it's going to be tough. The entire squad seems to be on form though.
DK - GenG, let's go GenG.
DRX - EDG: we might see DRX actually make it to semis. I'm pleasantly surprised by how clean they've been the entire way through. EDG... is just solid? Idk what to say about them. Looking forward to Deft vs Viper though.

evilfatsh1t

Australia8870 Posts

October 18 2022 12:17 GMT

#48

didnt realise when watching game highlights but tes seemingly lost because of a huge bug. i would be fucking fuming that my team got knocked out of worlds because of this.

Amui

Canada10567 Posts

October 19 2022 00:11 GMT

#49

On October 18 2022 21:17 evilfatsh1t wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1w2h4cJmCLY
didnt realise when watching game highlights but tes seemingly lost because of a huge bug. i would be fucking fuming that my team got knocked out of worlds because of this.

Yeah it's a shitty situation all around, mostly caused by Riot not caring/assigning manpower to investigate/fix the dozens of reported bugs that occur every patch.

It's unfair to RGE/DRX to have chronobreak go through because they may have drafted/played differently with their lives on the line, it's unfair to TES because they were so close, and it's unfair to GAM because they absolutely played their hearts out that game(and the whole tournament really)

That being said, I'm not sure if it's just a spectator bug, but level 3 Sett ult should do 200 damage to a 100 armor Lucian, not 121. Sett does have both DMP and Frostfire, so no damage only really applies after he gets off his first 2 autos, which he will 100% get off after casting the E on a no CD lucian.

Lucian conveniently has 100 of each resist, so we can just sum the damage and divide by 2 at the end.

My math has
85 frostfire auto proc
~50 frostfire passive proc
160 - Dead man's plate.
250 - Not 100% sure on masteries, but he should have ballpark that amount even in a full tank build for 2 autos at level 16
100 - Q bonus damage (2 hits)
46 - 2% of Lucian's max health (assuming Sett has basically no bonus AD)
80 - Right fist damage
_______________________________
771 damage/2 because of 100 resist.

385.5 damage.

Add in W (~100 mitigated or ~200 true), which if Lucian partially dodges requires going 90 degrees from the nexus, which doesn't help him get closer to the nexus and he's critical HP even with a maw proc.

Also there's the Liandry's proc from Karthus, which has a couple ticks remaining at ~35 damage a second after mitigation.

I'm not entirely convinced that Lucian kills the Nexus even with it working properly, but it would've been damn close.

evilfatsh1t

Australia8870 Posts

October 19 2022 01:31 GMT

#50

not sure about the math but assuming your calculations are right, the conclusion is that lucian still survives setts full combo. if we want to really nitpick and theorycraft then i would say theres 2 more variables that would work in tes' favour.
1. lucian rfc at time of death was at about 80, so its possible that had he survived he could just w-aa-aa the nexus. if not he could w-auto-auto sett, refresh e cd, e towards nexus and aa-aa.
2. the fact that lucian survives means he peels for the rest of his team for at least a split second. karthus q on renekton would probably have been aimed at lucian first, then you have nami and renekton with enough time to possibly get in 2 more autos each at least.

it is very close but i think the situation is doable for tes. more importantly, i believe the decision to go for the nexus in the first place would have been made exactly because jackeylove knew his maw was up. if his maw wasnt up then tes may have played the situation completely differently altogether. in the heat of the moment jackeylove probably thought that sett just did an insane amount of damage, but if anyone on tes was analysing this in real time they should have rioted for a chronobreak.

Amui

Canada10567 Posts

October 19 2022 20:16 GMT

#51

https://www.reddit.com/r/leagueoflegends/comments/y5j7so/possible_bug_on_gam_vs_tes_4000_maw_of_malmortius/
Using various posts in here as a source.

Based on this post, Maw should've provided 510 shielding.

Aery is still on lucian which is why Sett ulti did 121 damage.

I think at that point if he W auto sett and then Es with the reset out of sett W(That auto reset 100% gets him killed if he gets hit, mitigated or true) he might get to auto the nexus. Nami doesn't do remotely close to enough damage to the nexus(like I think it'd be ~10 autos to win from there for Nami), and Renekton is cc'd by Renata, and also autos for about 2/3 of what lucian does.

There's a window in there if everything goes right for TES to win, and also still room for GAM to win I think without the bug. Like you give the players 100 chances at that from a resume at the Sett ulti, and I still don't think there's a 100% winning strategy for either side.

Yorbon

Netherlands4272 Posts

October 20 2022 20:57 GMT

#52

Interesting comments by Trymbi on the nasus pick:

He seems to be positive about the pick, despite how the game played out.

Amui

Canada10567 Posts

October 21 2022 00:31 GMT

#53

Unsurprisingly, Rogue got pretty shut down by JDG.

Another year, another LCK/LPL domination.

Uldridge

Belgium5177 Posts

October 21 2022 06:02 GMT

#54

Yeah I should've known better than think the west could power up into the second week of groups. It's almost like a logical fallacy at this point..

Amui

Canada10567 Posts

October 21 2022 07:08 GMT

#55

On October 21 2022 15:02 Uldridge wrote:
Yeah I should've known better than think the west could power up into the second week of groups. It's almost like a logical fallacy at this point..

If anything, the eastern teams power up the second week once they have a better read on the meta and figure out how to abuse the western teams.

The west sometimes takes a game here or there if they can coinflip some volatile matchups, but they are so rarely able to identify and play to lanes that can win (well, in a lot of cases they get gapped in all 3 lanes and the jungle). Hard to make plays when every lane is behind by 3 minutes.

Uldridge

Belgium5177 Posts

October 21 2022 10:14 GMT

#56

I saw Odo on Renekton on G1 and kind of knew the game was over. They can't leverage that pick into a hard snowball into a Chinese team (especially JDG). Gragas just neutralizes and he just becomes a minion.

Yorbon

Netherlands4272 Posts

October 21 2022 20:56 GMT

#57

Hoping for a T1 win today, but I'm not confident. RNG is a little bit of an angstgegner for me.

DarkCore

Germany4194 Posts

October 21 2022 21:07 GMT

#58

On October 22 2022 05:56 Yorbon wrote:
Hoping for a T1 win today, but I'm not confident. RNG is a little bit of an angstgegner for me.

It all depends on how big Xiaohu and Gala go today imo. I expect jungle and top to go in favour of T1 naturally, but Xiaohu can definitely have better map impact than Faker, and Gala has a tendency to show up in critical matches.

Interestingly, RNG has a very good track record against JDG this year: they beat them in both regular splits, and also beat them in Spring Playoffs. I suppose if there's one LPL team who can beat JDG (thanks to TES eliminating themselves), it's Xiaohu and the gang.

Yorbon

Netherlands4272 Posts

October 21 2022 22:09 GMT

#59

It was a tight game 1. Gold was largely irrelevant, as long as T1 could zone RNG away. Overall I'm pleasantly surprised with how T1 played this from the macro perspective. It takes a lot of maturity as a team to perform it at this level. I figured this T1 was better at skirmishing, but it seems they've grown.

That said RNG shows that full concentration will be necessary to beat them. I was impressed by Xiaohu, even though he was pushed in the entire game, he was very effective. Ming missed a probably essential hook in the early game.

I didn't believe during game 2. I was proven wrong.