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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 6067

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Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting!

NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.

Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.


If you have any questions, comments, concern, or feedback regarding the USPMT, then please use this thread: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/website-feedback/510156-us-politics-thread
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States44436 Posts
3 hours ago
#121321
On November 06 2026 14:04 oBlade wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2026 07:18 KwarK wrote:
On November 06 2026 03:38 oBlade wrote:
Here the turkey on the eve of Thanksgiving concludes he obviously won't wake up as dinner tomorrow because he survived the last 364 days.

What I enjoy about this is considering the inverse. Okay, so the turkey shouldn’t presume that he’s not being served for dinner at thanksgiving just because it hasn’t happened before. Sure Jan, whatever. But that applies to literally everyone attending the thanksgiving dinner, not just the turkey. “It’s never happened before therefore it will” isn’t an argument.

You can consider that, but nobody said that. The reason nobody said it is it makes no sense. You're the one who said Iran wouldn't get a nuclear weapon because they haven't yet. Which would apply to any state that got nuclear weapons, before they got nuclear weapons. Kwark Bush in 1991: Pakistan aren't going to get nuclear weapons because they haven't yet. Not a problem. Kwark Clinton in 1999: The DPRK aren't going to get nuclear weapons because they haven't yet. Nothing to worry about. You are now responding with "So you think there's an equal chance of Iran and of Poland and New Zealand and Chile developing nuclear weapons just because they haven't built a weapon yet? That's not an argument." Correct, it's not an argument, and nobody made it.

Show nested quote +
On November 06 2026 09:20 KwarK wrote:
On November 06 2026 08:08 Gorsameth wrote:
On November 06 2026 07:49 dyhb wrote:
On November 05 2026 23:53 Gorsameth wrote:
On November 05 2026 23:37 oBlade wrote:
On November 05 2026 22:49 KwarK wrote:
Wait, you think it's higher prices or lives?

That's not what a higher price means. It's not like all the oil suppliers got together and rose the floor price. The higher price is because people who need oil are bidding for it and not all of them are getting oil. Supply is down and in the global south that means being outbid for oil they need. Higher prices mean lives lost.

Lives lost by the world having to invade Iran.

You can quantify your global south deaths and compare and it'll probably be less. Moreover, your global south deaths can be avoided. The global north can just help and save them. Which it should be doing anyway. Like when crude was at $100+ for years under Obama (which is much higher in 2026 dollars) and all those people were dying and at risk of dying. But war deaths and the consequences of that can't be avoided. You can also compare that to the consequences of an inevitable regional war, or the expected losses of a potential regional war in the 30s or 40s, or just the deaths of a nuclear Iran doing something nuclear.
But Iran wasn't interested in doing anything nuclear before Trump killed the guy who explicitly forbad Iran from doing anything nuclear. And now after Trumps invasion Iran really wants to do something nuclear because it is te only way to be safe from an insane America.

So Trump cause a hell of a lot of deaths by making a future hypothetical Iran do something nuclear.
Did I miss something and people really think Iran didn't have nuclear ambitions prior to Trump killing a guy? I thought the opposite was generally understood to be true, but I keep running across pockets of conspiracies that have greater purchase than I previously thought.
Go back to the Iranian revolution, the CIA overthrew the legitimate Iranian government installed a dictator that was eventually removed. Iran now free from its US puppet control wants to ensure its independence. The only real way to have that in the post WW-2 world is to be a nuclear power.

So yes Iran wanted a nuke and tried to get it. They were slowed down through varies means over time, like Stuxnet, until we get to 2015 and the JCPOA. A different tactic this time, attempt to repair relations with Iran, show them they don't need a nuclear weapon to keep America out because America is willing to be friends.In exchange for relief from sanctions and a return of frozen assets Iran promises to give up its nuclear ambitions, checked by IAEA inspections.

And it worked, Iran complied. Until Obama left office and Trump broke the deal in 2018. Presumably under pressure from Israel and because the Republicans just really hate Obama and wanted to kill one of his crowning achievements.

Naturally when the party that promises not to attack you in return for you not developing the only real means to stop them from attacking you withdraws from that promise, you start reconsidering if you shouldn't go back to developing the only means to stop them.

The Iranian nuclear threat was effectively ended before Trump blew up the JCPOA. Sure it would eventually expire but Iran likes not being attacked or economically sanctioned, like most countries. Negotiating a continuation would not have been that difficult. Just keep doing that you were doing and everyone can be happy.

So yes, I do believe Iran had given up its nuclear ambitions prior to Trump fucking everything up.

The other really important thing to remember about the JCPOA is that it had Russia and China on board. Kerry managed to not only get American allies to apply leverage but also America’s enemies and Iran’s biggest trade partners. This was possible because they’re nuclear powers and wanted to preserve the non proliferation status quo but also because of an awful lot of long term diplomatic work. They stood to benefit from a non nuclear Iran allied with their interests and so they joined in the threatening the stick. It’s one thing for the EU and America and Japan to threaten not to buy Iranian exports if they don’t comply but if you get Russia and China to join that embargo then it’s an economic WMD. And that’s what Kerry built. If Iran broke the deal then not only would the US sanctions immediately go back on, so would Chinese and Russian ones.

We have other issues with China and Russia and can't rely on them and use up all our foreign policy resources just on Iran. The US is strong but its diplomatic capital and leverage are still finite. The first JCPOA restrictions would already have sunset this year, 2026. Do you think Putin would have been up for renegotiating? We are trying to isolate and slow China and beat them in other areas. We can't afford to put all that on hold just to get them to not buy some oil from some deranged Islamists. The world doesn't revolve around Iran. The second restrictions would have sunset in 2031 and then it's oops we need another temporary way to maybe limit something. We don't strike Poland and New Zealand and Chile even though we don't have nuclear deals with them. Is this because we unfairly hate Iran and are irrational hypocrites? Or do Poland and New Zealand and Chile just not have any nuclear weapons ambitions or programs, and don't practice nuclear hedging unlike Iran.

Show nested quote +
On November 06 2026 09:20 KwarK wrote:
But then the US unilaterally ended the whole fucking thing and declared that it was definitely going to invade Iran if Iran didn’t immediately resume efforts to establish a nuclear deterrent. And so unfortunately Iran resumed efforts and the global sanctions program that was meant to kick in didn’t apply because of the US breach.

And yet it hasn't even invaded Iran and didn't attack in 2018 when it left JCPOA. Back to the concern trolling from before, you know how many Iranian civilians and children sanctions and embargos kill?
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2026 09:20 KwarK wrote:
It’s difficult really to understate just how bad Trump’s Iran policy has been. He gave them permission and justification to resume nuclear research with his insistence that whatever claims they had about legitimate self defence were absolutely right. The US was absolutely going to attack them. He gave Iran’s allies permission to support them despite the sanctions deal, he wrote them the out clause. And then on the strait he did the one thing that gave them justification to close it and in doing so alienated the whole world because it’s not Iran’s fault that it is closed at this point. And despite all of that he somehow hasn’t defeated the IRGC. He has made every single wrong move it was possible to make. Not only has he fallen into every pit, he has dug new pits that weren’t even there, then fallen into those too.

The argument that you need a nuclear weapon to deter someone from preventing you from getting a nuclear weapon is circular.

Fine, fine, they’re attacking the country formerly known as Iran. Sorry, I forgot that you didn’t believe in Iran anymore. You’re so nitpicky today.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24500 Posts
2 hours ago
#121322
On November 06 2026 06:43 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2026 05:41 GreenHorizons wrote:
On November 06 2026 05:10 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
On November 06 2026 04:50 GreenHorizons wrote:
On November 06 2026 04:33 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
On November 06 2026 04:02 GreenHorizons wrote:
On November 06 2026 03:30 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
On November 06 2026 02:55 GreenHorizons wrote:
On November 06 2026 02:09 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
On November 06 2026 01:03 GreenHorizons wrote:
[quote]
This is actually nonsensical to me.

I don't know what "They need to all get on board with AIPAC / popular vote paths" even means?

Why you're mentioning "popular vote" regarding whether or not establishment/centrist/third way Democrats (especially their leaders in the House and Senate) need to stop infighting with progressives on continuing to collaborate with AIPAC/UDP after Haley Stevens (and plenty of other stuff)?

Are you trying to say Buttigieg agrees with progressives on Democrat leadership stopping their collaboration with AIPAC/UDP or what?

[quote]

Who are you saying needs to concede what to stop the infighting on AIPAC? (or literally ANYTHING you think the establishment/centrists/thirdway Democrats need to concede to their progressive left to stop the infighting to avoid self-sabotaging)

Oh this is my mistake; I got my acronyms mixed up. I was talking about the NPVIC / using the popular vote earlier, and I didn't realize that your question was about a different topic / Israel. Mea culpa!

I don't know enough about AIPAC to comment.


I would think the "Haley Stevens" context (or when you typed "AIPAC") would have been a clue, but okay.

So when you (or anyone else really) say something like
We just need Congressional Democrats to lock in and vote to pass as many helpful ideas as possible. They can't spend the next two years in-fighting.


You don't actually have any idea what they are infighting about/where/which fights establishment/centrists/third way/dyhb Dems need concede to progressives in order to lock-in and not self-sabotage?

Can you (or literally anyone that is going to use this "stop infighting" cliché/euphemism) identify any specific infights that you think needs to stop, and through what process?

Medicare For All / healthcare is one such topic where there's in-fighting. Also (again) I'd like to see more Dems get on board with the idea of allocating electoral votes towards the winner of the overall popular vote. And obviously there's also in-fighting in regards to handling Israel's genocide of Palestinians. As far as how these fights are going to stop / the persuasion / "through what process", your guess is as good as mine.

Well since "Medicare For All" is a policy with pretty established factions (I doubt there's a united progressive faction in opposition of NPVIC like there is AIPAC?) for and against in the party, let's get into what people believe the in-fight about M4A is and who needs to concede what to make it stop to avoid self-sabotaging?

It's possibly the best example of something that meets these hopes/plans/etc:

... hope Leftish Democrats and their policies make a name for themselves so we have something exciting to run on in the next Presidential election.
and/or

Democrats try to pass as much progressive and popular legislation as possible. Trump can either accept those bills and share in some credit (he does like to take credit for things, after all), or Trump can veto everything which makes the Democratic 2028 platform clear: a Democratic Congress is willing to solve these problems, and now all we need is a Democratic President.


+ Show Spoiler +
Hell, even Trump once said things like:
We must have universal healthcare. I’m a conservative on most issues but a liberal on this one. We should not hear so many horror stories of people dying who could not afford insurance.


Another way to think about what I'm asking is "What does dyhb's faction of centrist/establishment Democrats have to concede to LightSpectra's progressive faction of Democrats (in this case on Universal Healthcare) in order to not self-sabotage their mutual interest in Democrats obtaining and utilizing their power for all of our collective best interests"?

The "progressives/LS/DPB" faction has to be able to identify what the "establishment/corporate/dyhb" faction needs to concede or else "not infighting" is logically/literally just conceding to/uncritically falling in line behind the "establishment/corporate/dyhb" faction.

What's wrong with the examples I just mentioned, such as M4A? As I said before: Congressional Dems should try to propose and pass as much as possible, and force Trump to either veto or accept popular progressive policies that the American people support. Hell, there's a 50/50 chance that Trump changes his mind about M4A if we promise to call it Trumpcare and tell him it's even better than Obamacare.


Is this another misunderstanding?

I was trying to advance the discussion on the M4A example specifically ala

1."What is the in-fight on Medicare for All (or whatever iteration) specifically about?"
2. "Who needs to concede what to make the in-fighting on M4A stop in order to not self-sabotage their mutual interest in Democrats obtaining and utilizing their power for all of our collective best interests".

I don't think there's necessarily something wrong with your other examples, just that I don't think there's an organized opposition to NPVIC in the party is there? Also, as I mentioned AIPAC to start, I'd be open to diving into those questions regarding that/Israel too (as it certainly overlaps with Schumer and Jeffries as leaders), but I figured the healthcare example had the best potential for productive discussion to the widest audience.

1. A lot of the in-fighting seems to be between 3 groups: keep healthcare in its current form vs. add an optional Medicare alternative (Medicare For All *Who Want It* - Buttigieg had taken this position back in the day; maybe he still prefers this) vs. a true "mandatory" single-payer overhaul (real M4A).

+ Show Spoiler +
2. I think the first group (not changing healthcare at all) needs to completely concede and buy in to either group two (M4AWWI) or ideally group three (true M4A). It'll be more realistic for them to scoot over a bit to M4AWWI than all the way over to true M4A, if they agree to budge at all. I'd love to get all group one and group two Dems into group three, but I'd settle for some sort of consensus that at least deserts the group one notion that no changes in healthcare are needed.

I'd like to see some sort of healthcare policy evolve from that starting point, and be proposed before Trump's term is over. If something like group two (M4AWWI) ends up being the most progressive they can agree on, then I imagine an interesting topic for the 2028 presidential primary could be group two Dem candidates vs. group three Dem candidates.

Who do you identify as currently (as of Jan 2027) prominent elected Democrats in the first group that explicitly opposes the second (a public option) and what portion of Democrat voters/the party do you believe they represent with that view/ the view that "no changes in healthcare are needed."?

Jeffries seems to be a major one, and individual Congressional Dems can feel free to update which of the three groups they currently identify with. I think the portion of Democratic voters represented by group one is pretty small, since different polls seem to show high favorability for Dems wanting M4A (like 80+%).

As one of the "major ones", can you give some examples of Jeffries explicitly opposing a public option?
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
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