EPTUS Politics Mega-thread - Page 6026
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LightSpectra
United States3376 Posts
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FlaShFTW
United States10573 Posts
On October 20 2026 07:36 Introvert wrote: Things are still early and early vote data is very susceptible to a choose your own adventure. but the 1000 ft view to keep in mind is that to win seats in red states and flip the senate you can't just re-run 2024. Trump won Texas by double digits, you have to massively *over-run* 2024 relative to other places. Flipping senate seats in states that went to the other party by 10+ the last election is very rare (don't recall the exact number but it's out there). Absolutely, but rather than look at 2024 numbers, I’d rather look at 2018 numbers when Beto almost upset Cruz while keeping 2024 turnout in context. Dallas County has officially surpassed its 2024 day1 turnout. A midterm outpacing a presidential election is crazy. Meanwhile, Madison and Hockley counties (R +65 counties) are only at 65-67% right now. I think that tells a bit of a story. | ||
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