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Apotek
Taiwan34 Posts
On April 20 2015 20:17 WhiteDog wrote: Obvious growth : lower cost for energy, due to the huge drop in petrol price, and a weaker euro that sustain exports. So do you think the growth in the eurozone will last for long? The German economy is what's keeping the eurozone afloat. Without Germany, the eurozone would collapse. | ||
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WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
It will stay as long as oil prices and the euro will stay low, but it's not an indicator that anything is better. | ||
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Apotek
Taiwan34 Posts
On April 20 2015 21:23 WhiteDog wrote: From my point of view it's Germany that is pushing the eurozone into collapsing lol. It will stay as long as oil prices and the euro will stay low, but it's not an indicator that anything is better. Germany has the eurozone's biggest economy and is the economic engine of the eurozone. How is it pushing the eurozone into collapsing? Please elaborate. | ||
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WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
On April 20 2015 22:08 Apotek wrote: Germany has the eurozone's biggest economy and is the economic engine of the eurozone. How is it pushing the eurozone into collapsing? Please elaborate. I don't believe Germany is the engine of anyone. If you look at their performance, it rarely concur with other's performance : they don't push other european countries towards growth for various reasons. Some time ago Natixis made a study on "who should leave the euro ?" and pointed out Germany was different, from an economical standpoint, from the rest of the eurozone countries : - asymmetry of cycles between Germany and the rest of the euro zone (mainly, the eurozone is pushed by credit, except for Germany) ; - weakening economic ties between Germany and the rest of the Eurozone; - structural asymmetries between Germany and the rest of the euro area (sectoral structure of the economy, savings behavior and demography, labor market rules); - different needs of Germany and the rest of the euro area in respect to exchange rate policy; - inability of the euro area excluding Germany to make “Internal devaluation.” (in french sadly http://cib.natixis.com/flushdoc.aspx?id=73842) Meanwhile, from a political standpoint, they are forcing bad economic policies on the rest of the eurozone. | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
but looking at functional role within an economic system, germany's huge export account surplus, roughly half of whcih was with the rest of the eurozone before the crisis, is the engine behind deflationary pressure on the euro periphery. (deflation notably increases the price of debt, increase cost of exports, increase real labor cost) german exports denominated in euros raise the value of euros, but unlike german exports which are high tech content and fairly price inelastic, the agricultural/service oriented periphery exports are disproportionately impacted. given the linked currency the strength of german exporting basically was in competition with southern europe. obviously greece has more than its share of governance issues, but germany's export oriented economy plus weak internal demand (whcih actually acts as a driver for peripheral economies) didn't help. | ||
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WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
On April 21 2015 02:22 Nyxisto wrote: I don't understand what other countries are supposed to get from Germany leaving the Eurozone. Getting credit will be harder, buying German products will be more expensive (which a lot of European countries are depending on) and the EU's political influence will shrink.The only country I actually see profiting from this is Germany. That's the opposite actually. The country benefitting the most from the euro is Germany (and thus the one which would lose the most from the end of the euro). There is another study about that actually from Natixis - in english this time (cib.natixis.com/flushdoc.aspx?id=67288) : It is still often argued that Germany will end up becoming discouraged and leave the euro zone. We do not believe this will ever occur: the advantage that Germany would gain from leaving the euro (not having to finance aid to the troubled countries) is far smaller than the costs for Germany generated by leaving the euro (loss of competitiveness, capital loss due to exchange-rate fluctuations). [...] What would be the costs for Germany of a withdrawal from the euro? Given Germany's external surpluses (Chart 2) and the appeal of German government paper (Chart 3), a German exit from the euro zone would unequivocally lead to a sharp appreciation of the "mark" against the other euro-zone countries and also against all currencies as a whole. - a deterioration in its competitiveness and in its foreign trade. The weight of Germany's exports to the euro zone (Chart 4) is 18% of GDP, which is huge; the price elasticity of German exports in volume terms is roughly 0.4. A 10% appreciation of the "mark" would therefore lead to a shortfall in German exports of 0.7 percentage points of the country’s GDP, each year; - a capital loss (an exchange-rate loss) on the gross external assets held by Germany but a capital gain (an exchange-rate gain) on the gross external debt, and hence, all in all, an exchange-rate loss on Germany's net external assets (Chart 5). Let us assume that it entails the same appreciation of the mark as in the aftermath of the break-up of the EMS in 1992-93 (Charts 6A and B), i.e. around 35%: - the gain linked to the absence of federalism would be at the most 2.2% of Germany's GDP per year; - the loss linked to the deterioration in competitiveness would be 2.5% of Germany's GDP per year; - the one-off exchange-rate loss on Germany's net external assets would be 12.2% of Germany's GDP. | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On April 21 2015 03:11 Nyxisto wrote: I assume there's a reason people are buying German stuff. If you erect a trade barrier in form of a stronger/weaker currency you get rid of the goods people demand, too. Then you have more jobs but also more expensive goods or worse goods. If the goal is to just get Germany out of the Eurozone then okay, but I don't see how this is doing anything for the average consumer in Southern Europe. mainly they can depreciate their currency. it obviously involves worse purchasing power for imported goods but overall southern europe needs currency depreciation | ||
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WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
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Simberto
Germany11629 Posts
And i don't see how someone that produces stuff that people want is more reliant on people buying his stuff than the people who want the stuff are reliant on him producing it. Worst case you can still keep your stuff to yourself. The economy that actually produces things people want will always be at an advantage compared to the economy that does not. Maybe i am just a bit naive, but isn't "producing stuff" basically the main thing an economy does? And everything else around it, including the whole banking and debt things, are just windowdressing. No amount of playing around with the curtains will fundamentally change the fact that producing things that people want as cheaply as possible is the main goal of the whole thing. You can hide the fact that you are not doing that for a while, but eventually it will catch up to you, because people will not give you their stuff for free, if they are doing that for a while, that is because they think that they can get even more stuff from you lateron. | ||
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WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
Maybe i am just a bit naive, but isn't "producing stuff" basically the main thing an economy does The economy is not "producing goods", it is about finding the best way to use ressources and distribute ressources. Production is not just making stuff, it's using labor and capital to make stuff : we could use all our labor and capital to build tons of rockets, but that's not efficient in our current day and age. Finance has value only in regard to that fact : in theory it facilitate and permit the best allocation of capital. | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
On April 21 2015 03:18 WhiteDog wrote: People by German stuff not because they are the only one producing said goods but because they are the best quality wise. If German goods are more expensive, it does not mean the demand for such goods will die, just that people will substitute german goods for other goods - which is why, in the study, they evaluate the elasticity price for german goods and use to evaluate the loss of demand for german goods if the mark is appreciated as its right value. But that can't be a serious way to fix the long term economy of Southern Europe. "Hey guys, we need more jobs, so instead of trying to make better stuff lets keep the German goods out by getting a weaker currency." Not to mention that together with the economic isolation comes political lack of change which a lot of countries in Southern Europe right now need. | ||
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WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
On April 21 2015 03:28 Nyxisto wrote: But that can't be a serious way to fix the long term economy of Southern Europe. "Hey guys, we need more jobs, so instead of trying to make better stuff lets keep the German goods out by getting a weaker currency." Not to mention that together with the economic isolation comes political lack of change which a lot of countries in Southern Europe right now need. Going back to national currencies will not "fix" their economy, it will prevent the euro from drowning southern europe further and permit their national industrie to start producing. The rest (they need reform and all that) is just rubbish. | ||
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On April 21 2015 03:28 Nyxisto wrote: But that can't be a serious way to fix the long term economy of Southern Europe. "Hey guys, we need more jobs, so instead of trying to make better stuff lets keep the German goods out by getting a weaker currency." Not to mention that together with the economic isolation comes political lack of change which a lot of countries in Southern Europe right now need. southern europe's economy is fairly price sensitive, consisting of agricultural/transitional service sector(e.g. tourism) etc. they stand to lose more than german exports, whcih are mostly price insensitive, when the common currency appreciates. | ||
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WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
I recommend watching it. | ||
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
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Makro
France16890 Posts
On April 21 2015 04:37 oneofthem wrote: and to provide some contrast (and a display of german attitude) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8dRShL5Lyyk this discussion made a scandale in the french press because of the quote at 25:50 moreover it just show how stupid emmanuel macron and michel sapin are but it is already well known | ||
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WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
On April 21 2015 04:37 oneofthem wrote: and to provide some contrast (and a display of german attitude) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8dRShL5Lyyk Seriously french ministers are always plain stupid (and this guy is fucking called Sapin for real...), and Schlaube (and german ministers overall) always seem arrogant. | ||
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maartendq
Belgium3115 Posts
On April 21 2015 03:32 WhiteDog wrote: Going back to national currencies will not "fix" their economy, it will prevent the euro from drowning southern europe further and permit their national industrie to start producing. The rest (they need reform and all that) is just rubbish. If you really think that all it takes is a currency change in order to make Greece's economy flourish, you need to look deeper into how that country has been governed over the past thirty years or so. Right now government jobs pay 1.5 times as much as private sector jobs, and working as a civil servant grants social status to a person. Market economies cannot function in countries where clientelism and corruption is rife, where an industrial base is all but absent and where trust is limited to the family. Those countries tend to depend on the state for practically everything because private initiative is very rare and definitely not encouraged. Greece's issues run a lot deeper than just the euro. Economy is not something that happens in a vacuum. | ||
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