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On February 01 2015 02:52 Simberto wrote:
In todays world, unless you want to occupy some other country for prolonged periods of time, what you need is a much smaller amount of highly trained specialists and very expensive equipment. And your compulsory military guys who are just there because they have to for a year are neither trained enough nor would you give them the expensive shit, so they are utterly useless.
The whole idea of compulsory military service in Germany(and probably most other non-militaristic countries with comp. military service) was to not do that. The idea of the "citizen in uniform" is that the military actually stays the military and doesn't turn into a group of paid mercenaries with a life of its own.
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Yes, sorry, i was arguing mostly from a german perspective here.
Noone is gonna invade us anytime soon, and i'd prefer if we didn't invade anyone either. Thus, the only military Germany needs is the high trained high tech kind of thing, and maybe a few special ops groups for whatever shady stuff our government wants to do in far away lands.
In the case of Finland, or anyone else bordering Russia, the situation is obviously different as recent history has shown, and i haven't exactly thought about that. Similar situation if you are not a first-world country, because situations in the middle east and africa are a lot less stable, plus there is a reasonable chance that the US decides that you are evil and invades you (Though in that case you are pretty much fucked anyways, even with resistance your country is going to shit)
It would be great if noone needed a military, but sadly that is not yet the case.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
i've personally worked with refugees and asylum petitioners from the North Korean-China border region within the asylum process, and the chinese government has always used civilian informers heavily to discover potential refugees. but a lot of these north korean refugees are actually family relatives of ethnic koreans in china, and they would receive help from those relatives and sometimes get marriage arrangements and local ID through this route. but the north koreans who don't know anyone are basically fucked.
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re: compulsory military service in general, is less of a waste of time than most people think, as long as it is organized properly. Let's face it, tons of young adults in modern world have absolutely no clue about discipline, motivation, 'teamwork' and lots of other very useful soft skills that can be taught extremely well during a one year military stint, alongside with health benefits and so on. There's also statistics linking military service to reduced crime rate. Last but not least, a well organized military service allows young adults who might otherwise not know very well what they would like to do in their life to experience many different things they would never otherwise be exposed to and help them find their calling.
It's not like modern military service is all bootcamps and target practice; there are many specialized pathways where recruits get a chance to gain experience in electronics, engineering, chemistry, medicine, leadership roles, and so on. Of course something similar could be achieved by some kind of a 'public works' or 'advanced education' or whatever system, but military service does have a long tradition and commands a certain degree of respect which makes it rather effective when ran correctly. Then there is the whole preparedness for any potential future conflicts blah blah blah, but that's really more of an afterthought for many countries nowadays.
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If North Korea was to ever reunite with South Korea, it should not happen using the German method.
The total fertility rate of East Germany was the world's lowest for nearly a decade after reunification. This was due to a shock factor which can be explained by confusion and lack of adaptation to the western way of living following reunification of East and West Germany.
For example, the East German labor participation rate for women was about 90% compared to West German women's 30%. While West German women had a later first-child birth age, East German women were far less likely to have more than one child. Furthermore, due to reunification, many East German men and women's top priority was to find a job and earn money, which led to postponed marriages and child bearing, causing the fertility rate of East Germany to decrease to unprecedentedly extremely low levels.
![[image loading]](http://s14.postimg.org/91eagay01/German_TFR.png)
Although Germany is a very successful nation today, having a population of 80 million, the strongest economy in Europe and one of the highest standards of living, the way it dealt with reunification was far from perfect.
Rather, I think reunification of North and South Korea should take place gradually over a span of, say, 20 or 30 years. North Korea's GDP per capita should reach at least $10,000 USD. This would still rather be a huge difference as South Korea's GDP per capita is growing faster than most other developed nations in the East Asia region. South Korea's GDP per capita is projected to surpass Japan in 2016 in PPP terms and 2019 in nominal terms.
The gap between North and South Korea is increasing, however there are many signs that North Korea is starting to open up its markets. Even then, economic growth needs to be at least 5% or more to even make a stable reunification possible over the next 30 years.
However when a successful, stable reunification does happen, expect Unified Korea to overtake Germany, France and Japan in terms of GDP.
This is all according to Goldman Sachs:
![[image loading]](http://image.slidesharecdn.com/a-united-korea-reassessing-north-korea-risks2963/95/a-united-korea-reassessing-north-korea-risks-19-728.jpg?cb=1272624407)
This Goldman Sachs report was published before it was discovered that North Korea's rare earth mineral deposits amount to more than 50% of the world's total reserves.
As you all know rare earth minerals are the minerals required to manufacture technologically advanced products like semiconductors, aerospace parts, auto parts, etc. Hyundai may become the world's largest automobile manufacturing company, Hyundai Rotem the world's most technologically advanced tank and APC manufacturer and Korea Aerospace Industries may manufacture the world's most technologically advanced fighter jets for the US, Korea and other Allies. I predict that Hyundai Heavy Industries will remain as the world's largest shipbuilder, manufacturing aircraft carriers and advanced military warships and submarines. Samsung Construction and Trading will continue to build the world's tallest skyscrapers.
With the young labor force and rare earth minerals from North Korea and technologically advanced South Korea, these two countries will become the most technologically advanced nations in most areas, except maybe defence (which I think the US will probably still be at the top). I predict Samsung and SK Hynix to remain as the largest semiconductor manufacturers and Samsung to remain as the largest technology company in the world, by revenue and possibly by profits too (unless Apple finds a way to move away from smartphones and develops the most popular consumer-level tech product in the future, which I doubt).
The price of rare earth elements have skyrocketed in recent years and will continue to increase as China's stockpile starts to decrease, albeit slowly (China is No.2 in the world in rare earth mineral deposits).
One thing is for sure though. An aging population may ruin Korea if South Korea's birth rates remain low. Looking at Japan and seeing how a constantly sustained low birth rate is literally resulting in a population decrease per year, if Korea continues to follow in Japan's footsteps, it may mean that Korea could be a weaker nation than estimated. A high birth rate is necessary for South Korea to undergo a successful and stable reunification with North Korea, as North Korea's population is only half of South Korea. Even though North Korea has a younger labor force, it can not sustain an aged South Korea.
Therefore, South Korea must increase its birth rate first, through natural means, not through immigration. Immigration may destroy South Korea faster than it has caused economic decline and social instability in Europe.
A high birth rate is required to sustain domestic demand, a strong labor force and positive social dynamics.
The best example of a failed nation due to low birth rates is Japan. Although most people wouldn't say it's necessarily failed, since it has the world's highest life expectancy and is one of the safest societies (when you don't include natural disasters like earthquakes), Japan is still a failed nation as it's facing a demographic crisis which is leading to economic decline. Japan's economy was larger a decade ago than it is now. This is because of Japan's chronically aging population, shrinking population, low domestic demand, higher costs of welfare and decreased labor productivity. And all this was caused by low birth rates.
User was temp banned for this post.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
this is some racialist idea of nation failure right here. asian nationalist debates so weird
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i dont think anyone but you would consider japan a failed nation lmfao
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The dude posts pretty much nothing but anti-Japan rhetoric coupled with a strange obsession with birthrates.
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On February 03 2015 00:21 farvacola wrote:
The dude posts pretty much nothing but anti-Japan rhetoric coupled with a strange obsession with birthrates.
Holy crap, you're right. That's just bizarre.
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United States2103 Posts
On February 03 2015 00:21 farvacola wrote:
The dude posts pretty much nothing but anti-Japan rhetoric coupled with a strange obsession with birthrates.
Oh my god, too funny.
Perhaps he's Mormon or something and is working on his 14th child right now.
I actually thought his post was okay until I started reading the birthrates and Japanese stuff. Poor guy put a lot of effort into it too!
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On February 03 2015 00:39 Conti wrote:Show nested quote +On February 03 2015 00:21 farvacola wrote:
The dude posts pretty much nothing but anti-Japan rhetoric coupled with a strange obsession with birthrates. Holy crap, you're right. That's just bizarre.
That is pretty amazing dedication.
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Oh right, that guy again. But to be fair, if i recall correctly he isn't ONLY against Japan. He was also against China at some point, explaining how Huawei is gonna steal your credit card information and rob your account, and thus you should only buy american iphones.
I don't remember exactly if Samsung was also one of the evil companies that steal your shit or one of the good american companies that you should buy, but it was also relevant.
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ahahahaha, if japan is a failed nation, then the majority of this world is a failed country.
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AutoEngineer says/does surprising and alarming thing.
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To be fair, it's a fact that current economic downturn in Japan is in big part caused by their falling birth rates :p that said, INCREASING population growth is absolutely unsustainable and not something to be considered as a 'solution' to potential economic issues in the modern world. Countries should look to adapt to the fact that overpopulation is an issue that needs to be addressed and prepare accordingly. The whole thing about 'needing more labor force' is bullshit in modern countries and even in developing countries, there are far more people than 'needed', the name of the game is efficiency as too many are unemployed / unskilled / unwilling to do anything useful.
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On February 03 2015 01:12 Simberto wrote:
Oh right, that guy again. But to be fair, if i recall correctly he isn't ONLY against Japan. He was also against China at some point, explaining how Huawei is gonna steal your credit card information and rob your account, and thus you should only buy american iphones.
I don't remember exactly if Samsung was also one of the evil companies that steal your shit or one of the good american companies that you should buy, but it was also relevant.
wait was that him as well? I clearly remember the thread. Samsung was among the somewhat-evil axis. Not as bad as huawei when it comes to datamining but not as good as Apple and co who equally datamine but because we're all living in the US that's not a bother anways and should just be ignored. I think that was the logic behind it anyways.
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Guess the gimmie food and monies or I nuke joo "negotiations" didn't work out too well for the North this time, since Kim-Fatty the Third is raising a tantrum about it on North Korean TV:
North Korea strikes down US talksNorth Korea has ruled out any resumption of dialogue with the United States, threatening to react to any US 'war of aggression' with nuclear strikes and cyber warfare. The statement from the country's top military body, the National Defence Commission, came after reported moves by Washington and Pyongyang to revive long-stalled six-nation talks on denuclearisation. ...... North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un, who is head of the NDC, said on the weekend that Pyongyang refused to sit any longer at the table 'with rabid dogs barking' about toppling its socialist system.'Since the gangster-like US imperialists are blaring that they will 'bring down' the DPRK (North Korea)... the army and people of the DPRK cannot but officially notify the Obama administration... that the DPRK has neither need nor willingness to sit at negotiating table with the US any longer,' the NDC said. If the US ignites 'a war of aggression' and unleashes a nuclear war, North Korea will 'counter it through its own nuclear strikes', it said in a statement carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. 'And if the former tries to bring down the latter through a cyber warfare, it will react to it with its own pre-eminent cyber warfare and will thus bring earlier the final ruin of the US,' said the statement titled 'US imperialists will face final doom'. Source
Meanwhile in an ironic turn of events, China seems to be giving the cold shoulder to NK while Russia has announced joint military exercises with...the North?
China's defense chief in Seoul for talks on N. Korea, security tiesChinese Defense Minister Chang Wanquan is in Seoul for a three-day visit to hold talks with his South Korean counterpart Han Min-koo on Wednesday afternoon. Topping the agenda will be military and nuclear threats from Pyongyang and the current security situation on the peninsula. The defense ministry is also expected to call on China to put more pressure on Pyongyang to end its nuclear program. They will also discuss ways to further boost bilateral cooperation, including the establishment of a direct military hotline between the two ministers. ..... Source
Russia plans joint military drills with N. Korea and CubaRussia plans to commence joint military drills with the likes of North Korea and Cuba according to Russian armed forces Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov. The statement was made public during a meeting on Saturday that featured leaders of all of Russia’s armed forces groups. “We are planning an expansion of the communication lines of our military central command,” Gerasimov stated. “We are entering preliminary negotiations with the armed forces of Brazil, Vietnam, Cuba and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. We are going to conduct a series of joint naval and air force exercises, as well as joint drills of our ground troops and air assault troops.”..... Source
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On February 04 2015 12:53 sgtnoobkilla wrote:Guess the gimmie food and monies or I nuke joo "negotiations" didn't work out too well for the North this time, since Kim-Fatty the Third is raising a tantrum about it on North Korean TV: Show nested quote +North Korea strikes down US talksNorth Korea has ruled out any resumption of dialogue with the United States, threatening to react to any US 'war of aggression' with nuclear strikes and cyber warfare. The statement from the country's top military body, the National Defence Commission, came after reported moves by Washington and Pyongyang to revive long-stalled six-nation talks on denuclearisation. ...... North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un, who is head of the NDC, said on the weekend that Pyongyang refused to sit any longer at the table 'with rabid dogs barking' about toppling its socialist system.'Since the gangster-like US imperialists are blaring that they will 'bring down' the DPRK (North Korea)... the army and people of the DPRK cannot but officially notify the Obama administration... that the DPRK has neither need nor willingness to sit at negotiating table with the US any longer,' the NDC said. If the US ignites 'a war of aggression' and unleashes a nuclear war, North Korea will 'counter it through its own nuclear strikes', it said in a statement carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. 'And if the former tries to bring down the latter through a cyber warfare, it will react to it with its own pre-eminent cyber warfare and will thus bring earlier the final ruin of the US,' said the statement titled 'US imperialists will face final doom'. Source https://twitter.com/JapanToday/status/562817282679005184Meanwhile in an ironic turn of events, China seems to be giving the cold shoulder to NK while Russia has announced joint military exercises with...the North? Show nested quote +China's defense chief in Seoul for talks on N. Korea, security tiesChinese Defense Minister Chang Wanquan is in Seoul for a three-day visit to hold talks with his South Korean counterpart Han Min-koo on Wednesday afternoon. Topping the agenda will be military and nuclear threats from Pyongyang and the current security situation on the peninsula. The defense ministry is also expected to call on China to put more pressure on Pyongyang to end its nuclear program. They will also discuss ways to further boost bilateral cooperation, including the establishment of a direct military hotline between the two ministers. ..... Source Show nested quote +Russia plans joint military drills with N. Korea and CubaRussia plans to commence joint military drills with the likes of North Korea and Cuba according to Russian armed forces Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov. The statement was made public during a meeting on Saturday that featured leaders of all of Russia’s armed forces groups. “We are planning an expansion of the communication lines of our military central command,” Gerasimov stated. “We are entering preliminary negotiations with the armed forces of Brazil, Vietnam, Cuba and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. We are going to conduct a series of joint naval and air force exercises, as well as joint drills of our ground troops and air assault troops.”..... Source
Isn't Cuba communist, too? Are they trying to make a super thing? (Disclaimer: I am in high school and know next to nothing about politics or any of that)
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On February 04 2015 12:53 sgtnoobkilla wrote:Guess the gimmie food and monies or I nuke joo "negotiations" didn't work out too well for the North this time, since Kim-Fatty the Third is raising a tantrum about it on North Korean TV: Show nested quote +North Korea strikes down US talksNorth Korea has ruled out any resumption of dialogue with the United States, threatening to react to any US 'war of aggression' with nuclear strikes and cyber warfare. The statement from the country's top military body, the National Defence Commission, came after reported moves by Washington and Pyongyang to revive long-stalled six-nation talks on denuclearisation. ...... North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un, who is head of the NDC, said on the weekend that Pyongyang refused to sit any longer at the table 'with rabid dogs barking' about toppling its socialist system.'Since the gangster-like US imperialists are blaring that they will 'bring down' the DPRK (North Korea)... the army and people of the DPRK cannot but officially notify the Obama administration... that the DPRK has neither need nor willingness to sit at negotiating table with the US any longer,' the NDC said. If the US ignites 'a war of aggression' and unleashes a nuclear war, North Korea will 'counter it through its own nuclear strikes', it said in a statement carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. 'And if the former tries to bring down the latter through a cyber warfare, it will react to it with its own pre-eminent cyber warfare and will thus bring earlier the final ruin of the US,' said the statement titled 'US imperialists will face final doom'. Source https://twitter.com/JapanToday/status/562817282679005184Meanwhile in an ironic turn of events, China seems to be giving the cold shoulder to NK while Russia has announced joint military exercises with...the North? Show nested quote +China's defense chief in Seoul for talks on N. Korea, security tiesChinese Defense Minister Chang Wanquan is in Seoul for a three-day visit to hold talks with his South Korean counterpart Han Min-koo on Wednesday afternoon. Topping the agenda will be military and nuclear threats from Pyongyang and the current security situation on the peninsula. The defense ministry is also expected to call on China to put more pressure on Pyongyang to end its nuclear program. They will also discuss ways to further boost bilateral cooperation, including the establishment of a direct military hotline between the two ministers. ..... Source Show nested quote +Russia plans joint military drills with N. Korea and CubaRussia plans to commence joint military drills with the likes of North Korea and Cuba according to Russian armed forces Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov. The statement was made public during a meeting on Saturday that featured leaders of all of Russia’s armed forces groups. “We are planning an expansion of the communication lines of our military central command,” Gerasimov stated. “We are entering preliminary negotiations with the armed forces of Brazil, Vietnam, Cuba and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. We are going to conduct a series of joint naval and air force exercises, as well as joint drills of our ground troops and air assault troops.”..... Source
probably Russia wants their input on how to perfect the cult of personality.
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EPT
